2018 AFCCG: Jags v. Pats (Non-Brady Edition)

Royal Reader

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In related news, the Blueprint for beating this Jags defense is for all the receivers to get open straight away and the O Line to hold up for a really long time.
 

Leather

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Yeah, it's baffling that it's become "The Brady Formula" when it's like the definition of defense. "We can get this guy if we can cover and pressure simultaneously." Well, duh, but that's not a strategy.
“Work the count, get guys on base, and take advantage of any pitch he leaves over the strike zone.

That’s how you beat Pedro Martinez.”


“Take the high ground, hold the center, and outflank him on the right.

That’s how you beat Napoleon.”
 

Captaincoop

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Short of the Pats coming out as utterly unprepared as Pittsburgh, I want someone to explain to me what Jacksonville's "blueprint" is for putting up enough points on offense to win.
 

loshjott

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Yeah, it's baffling that it's become "The Brady Formula" when it's like the definition of defense. "We can get this guy if we can cover and pressure simultaneously." Well, duh, but that's not a strategy.
I think the difference is that’s the only way to beat Brady where with most QBs it’s that and other ways also.
 

dcmissle

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I think the difference is that’s the only way to beat Brady where with most QBs it’s that and other ways also.
It’s the only way we have lost important games, that’s why it’s the drum. So yes.
 

Old Fart Tree

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It’s basically 2am and I’m in Barcelona. I’ve had just enough wine to make me think that I should worry about the Jags. I land at 2 pacific tomorrow. Can someone assure me that we will be up by 7 at that point?
 

BaseballJones

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The Jags allowed just 17 points or fewer 11 times this year (out of 18 games played, including the playoffs). That's pretty amazing. But, as others have pointed out, their schedule was very soft. Look at these offenses they played...

Chargers (#13 points): 17 points
Titans (#19 points): 15 points
Colts (#30 points): 10 points, 0 points
Steelers (#8 points): 9 points
Texans (#17 points): 7 points, 7 points - but without Watson, they were horrible offensively
Ravens (#9 points): 7 points
Bengals (#26 points): 7 points
Browns (#32 points): 7 points
Bills (#22 points): 3 points

That's a lot of really bad offensive football teams that the Jaguars dominated.

The Patriots are not a bad offensive football team.
 

Deathofthebambino

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The Jags allowed just 17 points or fewer 11 times this year (out of 18 games played, including the playoffs). That's pretty amazing. But, as others have pointed out, their schedule was very soft. Look at these offenses they played...

Chargers (#13 points): 17 points
Titans (#19 points): 15 points
Colts (#30 points): 10 points, 0 points
Steelers (#8 points): 9 points
Texans (#17 points): 7 points, 7 points - but without Watson, they were horrible offensively
Ravens (#9 points): 7 points
Bengals (#26 points): 7 points
Browns (#32 points): 7 points
Bills (#22 points): 3 points

That's a lot of really bad offensive football teams that the Jaguars dominated.

The Patriots are not a bad offensive football team.
The Patriots allowed just 17 points or less, 11 times in their last 13 games, including the playoffs (the Jags have given up more than 17 in 4 of their last 8 games). That's pretty amazing.

The Patriots are not a bad defensive football team either. But the Jags are pretty shitty on offense.
 

Soxy

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You know, I'm just going to re-post my thoughts on the Jags from the Playoff Fear Factor thread. These were written before the playoffs started but my thoughts haven't really changed:
I think Jacksonville is being a bit overrated by some in this thread. The defense is supremely talented but they are far from a 2000 Ravens or 1985 Bears-type unit. Those teams had legit shutdown defenses where it was a mighty struggle to even move the ball. Stringing together a couple first downs and flipping field position would be considered a win against those teams. That's not really what this Jags defense is about. They basically live off of big plays: sacks, turnovers, defensive TDs. If you can avoid negative plays against them, there is hay to be made. And I'm still not sold on the Blake Bortles resurgence. He was horrible against a bad Titans team last week. Even if the Jags D forced a turnover or two, there's a decent chance Bortles would turn it over himself. Fournette hasn't really been all that impressive either. Keep him from breaking off a long run and he'll plod along for 3-4 yards a carry. It's not like he consistently rips off 10-20 yard runs with any regularity. This team had a pretty soft schedule and dominated a lot of bad teams. I think they're still a year (and an upgrade at QB) away from being a legit contender.
Jags may hang around for a bit as the Pats feel the game out and make adjustments, and Brady's injury is a wild card (though I think he'll largely be fine). But the Pats should win this game by double digits. A lot of national media types are trying to talk themselves into the Jags because they really don't want to see the Pats win another Super Bowl. But deep down, they know better.
 

uk_sox_fan

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You know, I'm just going to re-post my thoughts on the Jags from the Playoff Fear Factor thread. These were written before the playoffs started but my thoughts haven't really changed:


Jags may hang around for a bit as the Pats feel the game out and make adjustments, and Brady's injury is a wild card (though I think he'll largely be fine). But the Pats should win this game by double digits. A lot of national media types are trying to talk themselves into the Jags because they really don't want to see the Pats win another Super Bowl. But deep down, they know better.
Even though you said that these Jags are “far from an 1985-Bears or a 2000-Ravens type unit” I think even putting them in the same sentence is inappropriate. They’re good, yes. One of the top 3 defences this year probably. But I wouldn’t put them in the same class as the Broncos or Seahawks defenses of this decade - maybe around the top Texans teams.
 

Curt S Loew

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We had tons of posts all discussing Brady's hand injury in multiple threads. The hope was to discuss anything BUT that parts of the AFCCG here. I know, it's a bit futile.
Oh, I know "why". Phrasing is all..... Maybe "Not one for the Thumb" or something.
 

Reggie's Racquet

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I believe the key to this game will be patience. For the offensive braintrust to not be frustrated if they don't score and take control immediately. This defense will be a challenge. No turnovers. Do your job!
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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I believe the key to this game will be patience. For the offensive braintrust to not be frustrated if they don't score and take control immediately. This defense will be a challenge. No turnovers. Do your job!
The Ringer has been all over it, but the key is to keep the Jags out of the nickel. Considering the Patriots deploy a FB and/or 2 TE quite frequently, (one of) the Patriots strength is the Jags defensive weakness.

If the Jags opt to stay in nickel and dare the Patriots to run it, they will, and they'll make the Jags pay.

Pats will be hanging 30+ today. Get ahead against this Jags team, and it's over.

Let's get drunk.
 

j44thor

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Even though you said that these Jags are “far from an 1985-Bears or a 2000-Ravens type unit” I think even putting them in the same sentence is inappropriate. They’re good, yes. One of the top 3 defences this year probably. But I wouldn’t put them in the same class as the Broncos or Seahawks defenses of this decade - maybe around the top Texans teams.
Jags weighted DVOA has them closer to BAL/NO D this year than MN/PHI who are 1,2 by a clear edge.
 

bankshot1

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I'm putting the fanboy hat on, and believe that Matty P's D will not let a Bortle's led O win. The Pats D shines today. They will stuff the run, and makes Bortles throw into an under-appreciated D on 3rd and longs.

I think this could be a 30-13 Pats win type game.
 

j44thor

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The Ringer has been all over it, but the key is to keep the Jags out of the nickel. Considering the Patriots deploy a FB and/or 2 TE quite frequently, (one of) the Patriots strength is the Jags defensive weakness.

If the Jags opt to stay in nickel and dare the Patriots to run it, they will, and they'll make the Jags pay.


Pats will be hanging 30+ today. Get ahead against this Jags team, and it's over.

Let's get drunk.
Wouldn't the key then to be to keep the Jags in nickel???
 

Soxy

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The Ringer has been all over it, but the key is to keep the Jags out of the nickel. Considering the Patriots deploy a FB and/or 2 TE quite frequently, (one of) the Patriots strength is the Jags defensive weakness.

If the Jags opt to stay in nickel and dare the Patriots to run it, they will, and they'll make the Jags pay.

Pats will be hanging 30+ today. Get ahead against this Jags team, and it's over.

Let's get drunk.
I think this is correct. I expect to see a lot of James Develin and Dwayne Allen in this game.

The dumbest thing the Steelers did was come out empty set and try to spread out the Jags. It played right into the strengths of that defense. They did the same thing earlier in the season and it failed then. Why they thought this time would be different, I have no idea.

Only when the Steelers started running the ball effectively with Bell did the offense gain any momentum. Of course, by that point it was already 14-0. Then they had the 4th down debacle, Jags went down and scored another TD, and it was 21-0. From that point on, Steelers moved the ball well and scored TDs on 6 of their final 9 drives. They just dug themselves too big of a hole. Pats won't make the same mistake.
 

dynomite

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Even though you said that these Jags are “far from an 1985-Bears or a 2000-Ravens type unit” I think even putting them in the same sentence is inappropriate. They’re good, yes. One of the top 3 defences this year probably. But I wouldn’t put them in the same class as the Broncos or Seahawks defenses of this decade - maybe around the top Texans teams.
Wait, why aren’t they in the same class as the Broncos? The 2015 Broncos (the Cam Newton sad face team) stacks up pretty similarly to the 2017 Jaguars statistically. In the regular season:

Points allowed by 2015 Broncos: 296
Points allowed by 2017 Jaguars: 268

Yards allowed by 2015 Broncos: 4,530
Yards allowed by 2017 Jaguars: 4,578

Sacks by 2015 Broncos: 52
Sacks by 2017 Jaguars: 55

DVOA of 2015 Broncos defense: 1st, -25.8%
DVOA of 2017 Jaguars defense: 1st, -16.1%

At this point we’ll just have to wait and see what happens. And I feel okay about our chances. But this is a good defense.
 

tims4wins

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Wait, why aren’t they in the same class as the Broncos? The 2015 Broncos (the Cam Newton sad face team) stacks up pretty similarly to the 2017 Jaguars statistically. In the regular season:

Points allowed by 2015 Broncos: 296
Points allowed by 2017 Jaguars: 268

Yards allowed by 2015 Broncos: 4,530
Yards allowed by 2017 Jaguars: 4,578

Sacks by 2015 Broncos: 52
Sacks by 2017 Jaguars: 55

DVOA of 2015 Broncos defense: 1st, -25.8%
DVOA of 2017 Jaguars defense: 1st, -16.1%

At this point we’ll just have to wait and see what happens. And I feel okay about our chances. But this is a good defense.
Big difference in DVOA there. Also level of competition matters. Denver played a Packers team with Rodgers. A Colts team with Luck. The Pats. Playoff Chiefs team twice. Playoff Bengals and Steelers teams. Playoff Vikings team. By my count this Jags team played 4 games against playoff teams and went 1-3. Now 3-3 including their playoff wins.
 

BaseballJones

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The Patriots allowed just 17 points or less, 11 times in their last 13 games, including the playoffs (the Jags have given up more than 17 in 4 of their last 8 games). That's pretty amazing.

The Patriots are not a bad defensive football team either. But the Jags are pretty shitty on offense.
Yep totally agree.

This day is going to just drag by until gametime, isn't it?
 

dynomite

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Big difference in DVOA there. Also level of competition matters. Denver played a Packers team with Rodgers. A Colts team with Luck. The Pats. Playoff Chiefs team twice. Playoff Bengals and Steelers teams. Playoff Vikings team. By my count this Jags team played 4 games against playoff teams and went 1-3. Now 3-3 including their playoff wins.
That’s totally fair and a great point.
 

DJnVa

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Sacks by 2015 Broncos: 52
Sacks by 2017 Jaguars: 55
It's been pointed out elsewhere, but 33 of those sacks came in 5 games--2 against Indy, 2 against Houston, 1 against Cleveland.

The other 11 games they had 22 sacks.

Hell, 20 of the 55 came in 2 games (Hou, Indy)--meaning in 14 other games they had 35. That's a 40 sack pace, which is more middle of the pack.
 

Red Averages

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Crazy prediction: Pats D outscores Jax O.
I wrote that earlier and I’m completely on board with it. Feels like a game the D and special teams wins after being ignored all week and forgetting how many turnovers Bortles has in their losses combined with a subpar special teams.

If the Pats get ahead by 10 early feels like it’ll be a really easy watch with the Pats D in a position to pressure Bortles and cause turnovers and the Pats being able to run and do play action.
 

EricFeczko

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It's been pointed out elsewhere, but 33 of those sacks came in 5 games--2 against Indy, 2 against Houston, 1 against Cleveland.

The other 11 games they had 22 sacks.

Hell, 20 of the 55 came in 2 games (Hou, Indy)--meaning in 14 other games they had 35. That's a 40 sack pace, which is more middle of the pack.
That's wrong, but in your favor :)

28 of the 55 came against Houston and Indy. 8 of those 28 occurred in the December games. I also agree that we will see the running game driving our offense today.

I would've still preferred the Steelers (I think the Jags are a bad matchup for our passing offense, whereas the Steelers have no clue how to play matchups), but that's also like saying I prefer receiving a huge inheritance to winning the lottery. Make no mistake, the AFC crop of teams did not play well in 2017.
 

DJnVa

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That's wrong, but in your favor :)

28 of the 55 came against Houston and Indy. 8 of those 28 occurred in the December games. I also agree that we will see the running game driving our offense today.
Which part was wrong?

They sacked HOU 10 times in week 1 and INDY 10 times in week 7. That's 20 sacks in 2 games. 55 minus 20 is 35.
 

EricFeczko

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Which part was wrong?

They sacked HOU 10 times in week 1 and INDY 10 times in week 7. That's 20 sacks in 2 games. 55 minus 20 is 35.
Yeah, I misread that -- I thought you said 20 sacks over 4 games, and failed at being cute. Nevermind.
 

Super Nomario

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It's been pointed out elsewhere, but 33 of those sacks came in 5 games--2 against Indy, 2 against Houston, 1 against Cleveland.

The other 11 games they had 22 sacks.

Hell, 20 of the 55 came in 2 games (Hou, Indy)--meaning in 14 other games they had 35. That's a 40 sack pace, which is more middle of the pack.
I don't think this kind of distribution is terribly unusual. The Patriots D finished the regular season with 42 sacks (above-average, believe it or not), but had 13 in their two best games, so they're at 29 in the other 14 games. You're dealing with low-probability events in sacks; even the best defenses will have a bunch of games with one or two sacks. You throw out the handful of best games of any team and the statistical picture is going to look different.

The real question is pressure, not sacks, anyway. Brady was only sacked four times in 60 dropbacks in the AFCCG against Denver a couple years ago, but he was running for his life the whole game.
 

lambeau

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NY Times feature today on how to beat Patriots emphasizing the Strahan method: Hit him hard and constantly after the throw--hope Blakeman read it.