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Rough Carrigan

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Jon Heyman‏ @JonHeyman 2m2 minutes ago
scott boras generally doesn't discuss offers or non offers, but he did say the report of a $100M five-year offer by boston for jd martinez is "not accurate." (me: that does seem off/improbable as an offer since cespedes got $27.5M per year)
Maybe it was a 4 year, $100 million contract with option year(s)?
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Unless, of course, this is how they value him as a player. Full time DH
After seeing multiple posts sharing this idea, that JDM is a full-time DH, I had a thought... The Red Sox are but one season removed from employing the greatest clutch hitter in Red Sox history as full-time DH. Arguably the most important player to ever wear the uniform. A player who, in retirement, is still the most popular Red Sox. And the most they ever paid David Ortiz was $16M a season.
Acknowledging that there’s more money in the game now, and that salaries will always go up, and that they’ve burned themselves with the contracts to Sandoval and Hanley, etc, etc... Acknowledging all of those other factors, is there a chance the Sox front office, or more likely ownership, is thinking, “the most we ever paid Big Papi was $16M, and this guy thinks he’s worth $25M? Ha!”

FWIW, I hope the Sox offer is 5/$100M, and I’m glad DD isn’t bidding against himself. I’m all for a guy getting paid, but we’ve got other guys to pay too, and $100M is some pretty decent jack.
 

chawson

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After seeing multiple posts sharing this idea, that JDM is a full-time DH, I had a thought... The Red Sox are but one season removed from employing the greatest clutch hitter in Red Sox history as full-time DH. Arguably the most important player to ever wear the uniform. A player who, in retirement, is still the most popular Red Sox. And the most they ever paid David Ortiz was $16M a season.
Acknowledging that there’s more money in the game now, and that salaries will always go up, and that they’ve burned themselves with the contracts to Sandoval and Hanley, etc, etc... Acknowledging all of those other factors, is there a chance the Sox front office, or more likely ownership, is thinking, “the most we ever paid Big Papi was $16M, and this guy thinks he’s worth $25M? Ha!”
The closest comparison here would be Ortiz’s 4-year, $52MM extension he signed before his age-32 season in 2007. (His late-career deals aren’t great comps.)

Ortiz’s $12.5 million salary constituted 8.74% of the Sox payroll in 2007. It was 9.47% of payroll in 2008. His $16M salary was 8.68% of payroll in 2015.

If JDM signed today for $20M, he’d make up 8.97% of the Sox 2018 payroll. If he signed for $25M, it’d take up 10.96% of total payroll. And he’s two years younger than Ortiz was in 2007.
 
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Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Why is there no doubt that this is coming from the agent side?

Sure, the holdout rumor is almost certainly coming from Boras/Martinez. But this rumor does not benefit them at all. Not sure why they would leak it.
It could benefit them in two ways: one, it gets JDM off the hook somewhat in the court of public opinion for his public disgruntlement with offers to date, since nearly everyone who's been paying attention would agree that 5/$100M is a bit of a lowball offer.

Perhaps more importantly, it sets Boras & team up to claim victory when a realistic deal happens. Until today, the narrative for a $130M contract would have been that DD stood his ground and JDM and Boras caved in. Now it would be that both sides moved.
 

MikeM

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Jon Heyman‏ @JonHeyman 2m2 minutes ago
scott boras generally doesn't discuss offers or non offers, but he did say the report of a $100M five-year offer by boston for jd martinez is "not accurate." (me: that does seem off/improbable as an offer since cespedes got $27.5M per year)
Of course Heyman is going to report that. He's been at the top of his Boras stooge game all winter.

(which on a side note there did anybody catch that exchange on the MLB channel when they were discussing SD hiring Cameron, and the potential effect that might have on their interest in Hosmer. The look on his face during that was great)
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Acknowledging all of those other factors, is there a chance the Sox front office, or more likely ownership, is thinking, “the most we ever paid Big Papi was $16M, and this guy thinks he’s worth $25M? Ha!”
I sincerely hope not, for all our sakes. That's fan thinking. It's not DD's job to be as confused as the fans.

I mean, first of all, the Sox ownership knows perfectly well that Papi was seriously underpaid, especially in his final years when his decline leveled off and he kept putting up 3- and 4-WAR seasons in a period where wins were worth 6 to 8 million on the market. He made just under $160M in his time with the Sox, and according to Fangraphs produced nearly $300M in value. So for ownership to use his contracts as a benchmark for anything other than their own good fortune would be a bit shameless.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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As you say, there’s a history here, but I’m not seeing it this time around.

By all accounts, Eric Hosmer is weighing two monstrous offers, even though he probably isn’t one of the top 5 players at his very deep position. That’s a pretty big mark against any collusion theory.

The other top-tier free agents just don’t inspire much excitement. It’s telling that a 30-year old glorified DH like JDM is the biggest name on the market. I’m sure it also doesn’t help that next year’s market is expected to be much more attractive; that’s a big incentive for small-market teams who can’t make a splash every offseason to keep their powder dry this time around. Likewise, the MFY have their own, non-collusive reasons to sit out this year’s free-agent market, and they’re a big enough player to affect the entire market.

It’s true that there are way more lesser FAs unsigned than usual at this point in the offseason, but it’s certainly common for that market to remain sluggish until most of the big names are off the market. If a lot of those guys are still unsigned on March 1, I might believe there’s collusion, but I expect things will start moving in a hurry at some point in the next few weeks.
There's no need for conspiracy theories. The collusion is right there in the CBA. The luxury tax is structured in a way that makes it unsustainable for any team to just ignore the luxury tax completely and spend whatever they want, the way the Yankees always did and the way the Dodgers appeared poised to do as well. It's killing the top of the market. The players agreed to a salary cap and now they are paying the price.
 

Lowrielicious

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It could benefit them in two ways: one, it gets JDM off the hook somewhat in the court of public opinion for his public disgruntlement with offers to date, since nearly everyone who's been paying attention would agree that 5/$100M is a bit of a lowball offer.
Not sure I'd agree with that. David Cameron ran a crowd source estimate on free agents back in November.
Median crowd sourced estimate came out at 5 years 110.
(Cameron estimated 6 years 156 FWIW).
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-50-free-agents/

I would guess peoples estimates since then would have dropped if anything.

Although, crowd did median 3/45 for Santana which is a ways below the 3/60 he received. (Cameron 4/72).
 

MikeM

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Yeah, I was about to call you on that one too, LOL.
Honestly and if anything, I might end up being mostly guilty there for underestimating just how widespread the conservative approach towards the LT was going to be among the big market teams this winter. The Sox I could potentially see coming, but at the time I was pretty hot on the idea that a just as power starved as we are SF was going to be the big player on JDM, and right up to the point they picked up that Longoria contract. I also didn't initially have the Marlins trading off pieces as deep as Ozuna, which in turn helped to take StL off the table.

That said, I questioned earlier in the off-seaon on whether Henry would be comfortable taking the payroll to a record height JDM will leave them. Especially looking forward and with a reality looming where even under the best of circumstances our previous core strategies at retooling the team just got a lot harder. So contrary to that report last week which suggested DD is in full control of this possibility, I'm just not buying that atm. He'd of made his move by now.

So yeah, 5/$100m to me says we are/were only in there if it ended up being a serious bargain, likely with some additional salary cutting in the immediate aftermath, but never really in to the point DD was actually planning on the possibility. As evident by the inability to fight off his impatience and resist making that move on Moreland as early as he did. Which if we were really serious on JDM was a pretty stupid positioning move imo, as opposed to keeping the possibility open that we could still be looking to upgrade the lineup with an alternative that wouldn't require releasing/trading somebody (Boras is smart enough to realize that's only going to happen at this point for a player of JDM's caliber).
 

MikeM

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I wonder if Boras leaked the $100m figure so that when JDM signs for $130 it still looks like Boras held out for a good deal.
Extremely doubtful imo. If anything it sounds like both Boras and JDM himself are stuck holding firm on this fantasy that any player evaluation there should begin and end with his 2017 output. Making it just as likely that they are currently hanging up the phone on potential possibilities that otherwise could still end up pushing higher then $130m in a final settlement.

I'll like our chances more at getting him in a fallout if/when Arizona comes off the table.
 

grimshaw

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Honestly and if anything, I might end up being mostly guilty there for underestimating just how widespread the conservative approach towards the LT was going to be among the big market teams this winter. The Sox I could potentially see coming, but at the time I was pretty hot on the idea that a just as power starved as we are SF was going to be the big player on JDM, and right up to the point they picked up that Longoria contract. I also didn't initially have the Marlins trading off pieces as deep as Ozuna, which in turn helped to take StL off the table.
I don't think the LT has much to do with anything other than the Red Sox wrt to JD Martinez. The Yanks and Dodgers were never interested, and none of us really thought they were. The Cards were fully willing to spend - given how they were going to work in Stanton's contract and then made a deal that made a lot more sense. The Diamondbacks are nowhere near the threshold.

Some of us were factoring in defense as part of his market too.. The Giants were never interested in him for that reason. Really the other suitors have never changed either. It's basically been the Diamondbacks and Red Sox this whole time.
 

MikeM

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I don't think the LT has much to do with anything other than the Red Sox wrt to JD Martinez. The Yanks and Dodgers were never interested, and none of us really thought they were. The Cards were fully willing to spend - given how they were going to work in Stanton's contract and then made a deal that made a lot more sense. The Diamondbacks are nowhere near the threshold.

Some of us were factoring in defense as part of his market too.. The Giants were never interested in him for that reason. Really the other suitors have never changed either. It's basically been the Diamondbacks and Red Sox this whole time.
I had the Yankees being seriously interested in supplementing that lineup with a proven impact bat since day 1 of the offseason. Minus the Stanton acquisition they were always going to be a lurking threat imo.

Again, I also thought that if SF was going to spend they'd be willing to go over the LT this year (maybe by grabbing Frazier afterwards on the cheap for a 3B). Looking like that might not be the case. Surprisingly they still are managing to stay under.
 

Devizier

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Not sure I'd agree with that. David Cameron ran a crowd source estimate on free agents back in November.
Median crowd sourced estimate came out at 5 years 110.
(Cameron estimated 6 years 156 FWIW).
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-50-free-agents/

I would guess peoples estimates since then would have dropped if anything.

Although, crowd did median 3/45 for Santana which is a ways below the 3/60 he received. (Cameron 4/72).
Those crowd estimates almost always come in low. When I looked at it a few years ago, they were, on average, ~85% of the final total value of contracts. Typically this was because fans came in short on years, not AAV, though.
 

grimshaw

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Those crowd estimates almost always come in low. When I looked at it a few years ago, they were, on average, ~85% of the final total value of contracts. Typically this was because fans came in short on years, not AAV, though.
Right. I participated this year so have been tracking it.

In terms of AAV, crowd sourcing has been so so. So far they are on average, off by 1.67 mill in AAV to Cameron's 1.5.

Of the 23 on that list, the whiffs so far are Santana at 5 more than projected and Kendrick at 4.5 less. Pineda also got 3 mill less per year.

In general, they have been low in AAV.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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It could benefit them in two ways: one, it gets JDM off the hook somewhat in the court of public opinion for his public disgruntlement with offers to date, since nearly everyone who's been paying attention would agree that 5/$100M is a bit of a lowball offer.

Perhaps more importantly, it sets Boras & team up to claim victory when a realistic deal happens. Until today, the narrative for a $130M contract would have been that DD stood his ground and JDM and Boras caved in. Now it would be that both sides moved.
I agree. I also think its more important for Boras (than other agents) to come out of each negotiation with some favorable public opinion, or at least the favorable opinion of his clients and potential clients. His reputation is a brand basically, so this one can't be one where his side was the only one moving. This year seems to be unique, regardless of where the years/AAV fall, he's going to spin this as a market correction year and it will be less about this individual deal and more about it being a bad year to be a offensive free agent.
 

StuckOnYouk

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I really think Boras having two of the top clients is a HUGE reason for the drag on the offseason.

Didn't Speier or someone else write a few months ago that once the Sox front office heard that JD Martinez dumped his agent and hired Boras after the season, the FO basically banged their head against the walls?

I think the plan in typical DD fashion was to strike fast with a moderate overpay if need be and have a bow around Martinez by the time the December tix were up for sale. With Martinez signed to lets say a 5/125 deal in the first week of December I'm thinking the trickle down effect would have happened fairly quickly and set the 2017 offseason market that the lesser hitters were waiting for.
 

bosockboy

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I bet the pre-season magazines and annuals (Athlon,etc) that predict team standings and stats are completely paralyzed. If they publish on schedule they would be worthless.
 

edoug

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If that was the offer and wasn't accepted, they should just walk away.
 

Pozo the Clown

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If that was the offer and wasn't accepted, they should just walk away.
If by "walk away", you mean that they should leave the offer open (until such a time (if any) that another big bat becomes available via a desirable trade), I wholeheartedly agree. It's a very reasonable offer that I doubt any other team is willing to match or beat. Waiting Boras and JDM out is the prudent thing to do. JDM is (eventually) going to sign somewhere. Might as well be with Boston for 5/$125M.

EDIT: Or what Savin said when he beat me to the punch!
 

Sampo Gida

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5/125 is certainly reasonable. Throw in a couple of player options for 10-15 million each and consider it done. Basically 7/150 . Shouldnt be that hard to close a deal. Unless JDM has a preference for Arizona and is holding out for them. A Greinke deal is probably being delayed due to the hold up in SP FA signings
Tomas criminal speeding incident may be making JDM look more attractive to them than he was before
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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5/125 is certainly reasonable. Throw in a couple of player options for 10-15 million each and consider it done. Basically 7/150 . Shouldnt be that hard to close a deal. Unless JDM has a preference for Arizona and is holding out for them. A Greinke deal is probably being delayed due to the hold up in SP FA signings
Tomas criminal speeding incident may be making JDM look more attractive to them than he was before
I don't understand this. Absent another team making a similar/better offer to Martinez, why do they need to "sweeten" their offer at all? If 5/125 is the best Martinez can get, then they shouldn't be offering a penny more.
 

IpswichSox

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Adding player options? Are you serious? Do you mean performance options, like plate appearances? Either one of those is a horrible idea. We are negotiating against NO ONE. Wait it out. Worst-case we go with what we have and be in a position to make a mid-season move.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Can’t get more definitive than this whether they’re in on JD.


Chairman Tom Werner: “We are in active negotiations with JD Martinez. People know that. It takes two.”
Wow. Pretty straight forward frustration there. Good on DD for his work so far. He clearly had a better read on the market than JDM camp
 

tonyarmasjr

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Adding player options? Are you serious? Do you mean performance options, like plate appearances? Either one of those is a horrible idea. We are negotiating against NO ONE. Wait it out. Worst-case we go with what we have and be in a position to make a mid-season move.
Seriously...I'd rather they tell him it's going to 5/$120 in two weeks. And 5/$115 at the end of February. Why would they need to up their offer if no one is besting it? The logic of JDM sitting out into the season only ends with him making less money. JDM needs the contract more than the Red Sox.
 

sean1562

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Silverman seems to have a bug up his ass about the JD negotiations
Seriously, comparing it to the Josh Hamilton deal like JD deserves something significantly higher. If he doesnt take that than lets just hope Devers and Benintendi take steps forward. It would be a colossally stupid move to hold out through Spring Training
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Seriously, comparing it to the Josh Hamilton deal like JD deserves something significantly higher.
Truth. Josh Hamilton was exactly as good a hitter as J.D. Martinez for the three years before he hit FA (Hamilton 2010-12: 148 wRC+; Martinez 2015-17: 147). But unlike Martinez, he was also a plus baserunner and (until 2012, when the writing on the wall started to appear) outfielder. Overall, a much better player. Of course, inflation since then makes up some of that difference, but probably not all of it. So the Hamilton example if anything underlines how reasonable the Sox' offer is--and the fact that the Hamilton deal turned out to be a disaster underlines how much risk there is even in such a reasonable offer.
 

edoug

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Can’t get more definitive than this whether they’re in on JD.


Chairman Tom Werner: “We are in active negotiations with JD Martinez. People know that. It takes two.”
Think they're getting the feeling they had when were trying to sign Teixeira?
 
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Hawk68

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Seriously...I'd rather they tell him it's going to 5/$120 in two weeks. And 5/$115 at the end of February. Why would they need to up their offer if no one is besting it? The logic of JDM sitting out into the season only ends with him making less money. JDM needs the contract more than the Red Sox.
Red Sox have a finite payroll budget.

If Eduardo Nunez is healthy and signed then the JDM offer must be decremented accordingly. That is a good time to introduce player option as a way to keep him interested without committing more funding to a declining asset.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I've never seen the word "decrement" used before....

Anyhow. 11 more days of January remaining- I think JDM will sign within that time. Then it's just all about figuring out what to do with Hanley, JBJ, Moreland
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I've never seen the word "decrement" used before....

Anyhow. 11 more days of January remaining- I think JDM will sign within that time. Then it's just all about figuring out what to do with Hanley, JBJ, Moreland
JBJ is the center fielder. Moreland is the 1B. Hanley is really the only one in potential limbo with a Martinez signing. Either he splits time with Moreland at 1B and occasionally DHs while Martinez spells an OF, or he's traded or cut. That all depends on his health and what he shows in the spring.
 

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A positive consequence of a JDM signing is that it pretty much ensures that the Hanley option won't vest. If Hanley continues to be a great teammate, I think the RS would keep him rather than eat his contract via release or heavily subsidized trade. I am sure they will explore trades, and it will be a matter of how much contract they eat balanced with the return in a trade.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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In this scenario Brentz is the odd man out, as JDM would likely also be the 4th OF'er, so someone like Brock Holt starts to look attractive as the 5th OF'er/ utility guy.... or.... hmmmm.... Swihart looks more attractive with Merrero, Lin or Marco as the IF

EDIT- either way, Brentz would be gone IMO.
 

chawson

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A positive consequence of a JDM signing is that it pretty much ensures that the Hanley option won't vest. If Hanley continues to be a great teammate, I think the RS would keep him rather than eat his contract via release or heavily subsidized trade. I am sure they will explore trades, and it will be a matter of how much contract they eat balanced with the return in a trade.
Can anyone imagine a Hanley trade that works? For both us and the other team? Not trying to be combative. I truly think that his value is erased in a league where 12-15 teams aren’t trying to win.

Only think I can imagine is if we trade him now to a bad team for another bad contract that expires before 2019, and he hits so well they’re able to flip him, option nulled, to a contender. To the Royals for Jason Hammel, maybe?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Truth. Josh Hamilton was exactly as good a hitter as J.D. Martinez for the three years before he hit FA (Hamilton 2010-12: 148 wRC+; Martinez 2015-17: 147). But unlike Martinez, he was also a plus baserunner and (until 2012, when the writing on the wall started to appear) outfielder. Overall, a much better player. Of course, inflation since then makes up some of that difference, but probably not all of it. So the Hamilton example if anything underlines how reasonable the Sox' offer is--and the fact that the Hamilton deal turned out to be a disaster underlines how much risk there is even in such a reasonable offer.

I don't think so. Josh Hamilton's value was suppressed because of his off the field issues.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Can anyone imagine a Hanley trade that works? For both us and the other team? Not trying to be combative. I truly think that his value is erased in a league where 12-15 teams aren’t trying to win.

Only think I can imagine is if we trade him now to a bad team for another bad contract that expires before 2019, and he hits so well they’re able to flip him, option nulled, to a contender. To the Royals for Jason Hammel, maybe?
If Hanley were a FA now, what would he be worth and who would be interested? KC is a possibility. OAK is always looking for value. Even a National League team looking for bench power in a back up 1B man could be interested.

People saying we should/might just cut him aren't thinking this through. The Sox might have to heavily subsidize him, but he's not Panda. Someone would take him for $3-5M if not a little more. And that would be better than cutting him.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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In my happy dreams, we sign JDM for 5/$110, trade Hanley for peanuts to a team willing to pay him $8M of what he's owed, and then take that $8M and give it to Nunez.
 

sean1562

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Im not sure about that. Does any contender "need" him? Why wouldn't a team not contending just wait to see if we cut him and pick him up at league min? How much potential value would a "good" Hanley with a 22 million vesting option have next season at the trade deadline, if a non-contender did take a flyer on him?
 

chawson

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If Hanley were a FA now, what would he be worth and who would be interested? KC is a possibility. OAK is always looking for value. Even a National League team looking for bench power in a back up 1B man could be interested.

People saying we should/might just cut him aren't thinking this through. The Sox might have to heavily subsidize him, but he's not Panda. Someone would take him for $3-5M if not a little more. And that would be better than cutting him.
It’d have to be a noncontending AL team that could absorb the opportunity cost of blocking a younger/better player’s development to see if he hits well enough to flip him. Only fits there I see are Kansas City and Tampa Bay.
 

Hawk68

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A positive consequence of a JDM signing is that it pretty much ensures that the Hanley option won't vest. If Hanley continues to be a great teammate, I think the RS would keep him rather than eat his contract via release or heavily subsidized trade. I am sure they will explore trades, and it will be a matter of how much contract they eat balanced with the return in a trade.
We can be confident that Mr. Boras is aware, and finds a way to raise that in negotiations.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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It’d have to be a noncontending AL team that could absorb the opportunity cost of blocking a younger/better player’s development to see if he hits well enough to flip him. Only fits there I see are Kansas City and Tampa Bay.
Eh, if he only costs the acquiring team 5-7 million for the year, he becomes quite attractive to any team with a DH slot, even ones that are fringe competitive or outside of that bubble. He's got the potential to be a 30 HR bat. If he's more the 2017 flavor, nothing really lost for a team that likely wasn't going to the playoffs anyway. Maybe they get luck and sneak into the wild card game, or maybe they get a few extra butts in the seats to see him blast moon shots.

Eat enough money, and they'll have suitors. And if they can save 5-7 million, that creates room to maneuver in season for an Addison Reed type of trade.
 

chawson

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Eh, if he only costs the acquiring team 5-7 million for the year, he becomes quite attractive to any team with a DH slot, even ones that are fringe competitive or outside of that bubble. He's got the potential to be a 30 HR bat. If he's more the 2017 flavor, nothing really lost for a team that likely wasn't going to the playoffs anyway. Maybe they get luck and sneak into the wild card game, or maybe they get a few extra butts in the seats to see him blast moon shots.

Eat enough money, and they'll have suitors. And if they can save 5-7 million, that creates room to maneuver in season for an Addison Reed type of trade.
I guess I need clarification if his option is voided if he’s traded as well as if he’s cut. If so, maybe the White Sox and Twins could be in if we pick up $15M or so of his 2018 salary.

Point is, if the Sox want to avoid paying him $22M in 2019, which is seems like they should, then his success next year can’t be pinned to ours.

As another wrinkle, if he’s productive and healthy in July for the Royals or whomever, odds are they’ll wanna flip him to the Astros or Yankees.
 
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