2017 Playoff Position Thread
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
my 02 cents
1 NE 14-2 or 13-3 @ mia is the only q
2 Pitt 12-4
3 Jax 11-5
4 LAC 9-7
5 Tenn 10-6
6 Balt 10-6
Afc tittie game NE over Jax
nfc
1 minn 13-3
2 philly 12-4
3 No 12-4 - or 11-5
4 Sea 11-5
5 LAR 11-5
6 CAR 11-5
Nfc tittie game Sea @ Philly i think sea wouild win
1 NE 14-2 or 13-3 @ mia is the only q
2 Pitt 12-4
3 Jax 11-5
4 LAC 9-7
5 Tenn 10-6
6 Balt 10-6
Afc tittie game NE over Jax
nfc
1 minn 13-3
2 philly 12-4
3 No 12-4 - or 11-5
4 Sea 11-5
5 LAR 11-5
6 CAR 11-5
Nfc tittie game Sea @ Philly i think sea wouild win
More of a closer. BPWC is a living legend, with some still unsure about what he really did to earn that name.
I think that was O-T-I-S. BPWC had the pick in the end zone, I think. The late 90's were strange times - the Pat's signed a veteran from the Lions for playmaking and leadership...
Jax and TEN both can't win out because they play each other the final week. Under the tiebreaker rules, the Pats would clinch a bye. They'd also get HFA unless they lost the final two and Tennessee won out (in which case TEN finish with a better conference record of 10-2 v 9-3). That scenario is pretty unlikely, of course.
Tennessee already has four conference losses. You're thinking of the Jags.
Edit: One Jags loss means the Patriots clinch a bye with any two wins. Incidentally, if the the Jags, Patriots and Steelers all finish at 10-4 then it starts to get more complicated because of the three way tiebreaker. If the Patriots beat the Steelers and win one other game, the Steelers lose one other, and the Jags win out, the Pats would end up with the bye because the Steelers would have been swept by the Jags and Pats but the Jags in that circumstance would get HFA.
Edit: One Jags loss means the Patriots clinch a bye with any two wins. Incidentally, if the the Jags, Patriots and Steelers all finish at 10-4 then it starts to get more complicated because of the three way tiebreaker. If the Patriots beat the Steelers and win one other game, the Steelers lose one other, and the Jags win out, the Pats would end up with the bye because the Steelers would have been swept by the Jags and Pats but the Jags in that circumstance would get HFA.
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I'm seeing a lot of talk being concerned about the Jaguars (now just one game behind us). If we lose to PIT, we would lose a tiebreaker to them, as they beat PIT 30-9 early this season.
JAX's remaining schedule: HOU, @SF, @TEN
I guess I see the concern looking at that schedule. Maybe Jimmy G could do us a solid if we need it, draft pick bedamned?
JAX's remaining schedule: HOU, @SF, @TEN
I guess I see the concern looking at that schedule. Maybe Jimmy G could do us a solid if we need it, draft pick bedamned?
We needed Seattle to win. Marriotta has regressed and seems to have taken a knock or two this year. Jags have all the tie breakers in their control. I think both the Steelers and the Patriots need 13 wins to get a bye. Obviously, if the Patriots get to 13 wins, they also win HFA by definition.
To be clear, the reason that the Pats would lose a tie-breaker to Jacksonville if they finish with the same record is because of Conference record. Currently, NE's overall and conference records are 10-3 and 7-2 whilst Jax's are 9-4 and 8-2 so if NE loses one more game than Jax, they will have one more loss in conference. Since the two teams don't play each other and since Jax has beaten Pit, LAC and Bal, there is no scenario of multi-team ties where Jax's superior conference record wouldn't come into play for any tie-breaker involving NE.
Similarly, as has been stated above, if NE loses this Sunday at Heinz, they would not be able to catch Pit and would have to hope Jacksonville finishes with a worse record in order to earn a bye. The scenarios are far rosier with a win...
Similarly, as has been stated above, if NE loses this Sunday at Heinz, they would not be able to catch Pit and would have to hope Jacksonville finishes with a worse record in order to earn a bye. The scenarios are far rosier with a win...
Unless Jax loses, for all intents and purposes what it boils down to is this: if the Patriots run the table they get the #1 seed and home field throughout. If they lose one more game they will be the third seed and lose the bye week.
Thanks, bullshit Carolina game.
Edit: assuming Pitt (not including NE game) and Jax win out, a likely assumption considering their schedule
Thanks, bullshit Carolina game.
Edit: assuming Pitt (not including NE game) and Jax win out, a likely assumption considering their schedule
Let's not forget that JAX has lost to the Jets and Cardinals. Chances of them sweeping their last 3 seem low to me.
I don't know about low. This week is pretty much a bye hosting the Yates led Texans.The last 2 are on the road so there is that. However, the Titans have looked horrible. We shall see how they look the next two weeks but I wouldn't want to count on the Titans beating anyone right now.
At SF may actually be the tougher of the 2 with going to the west coast and Jimmy G. That offensive line is a bad match up though. Jimmy may be in for a long day.
I wouldn't say that the Jags final game at Tennessee is a slam dunk for Jax. The Titans are one game behind in the standings and may very well be fighting for their own playoff lives.
538 has them at 79%, 71%, and 49% for the last 3, which comes to ~27.5% to win out. Even bumping that a bit to 85%, 80%, and 60% that only comes to a 41% chance to win out.
What is the result if NE loses at Pitt, Jax wins out, and the Steelers lose their last two? Is NE the odd man out by virtue of the fact that they will have a worse conference record than Jax and they lost to Pitt, or do the three-way tie tiebreakers get more complicated and give the Patriots some hope?
It's kind of academic, given that Pittsburgh won't lose it's last two, but given that this is the scenarios thread . . . .
Pats would be 3 seed.
Jags win tie breaker among the 3 with best conf record .
Then with only 2 left, starts over and H2H loss knocks Pats to 3.
They need to win both of their final two games to guarantee homefield, or a bye for that matter.
If they split and both PIT and JAX win out, they'll be the three seed because PIT will be 13-3 (to the Pats' 12-4) and - to break the tie for the #2 seed - JAX will have a better conference record (10-2 to the Pats' 9-3).
Hopefully bill doesn’t half ass the last 2 games and plays to win, especially the finale. This pats team needs to be at home with this defense
I kind of doubt it, it's not like they can justifiably fly back to Foxboro thinking no one can touch them. This game was full of fuck-ups and displays of vulnerability.
My primary concern is that Buffalo is a good, competitive team that needs to win to keep their season alive, not that the Pats will psychologically let up in some way.
Seems most likely Pats are #1 or #3, would be an inside straight confluence of events for them to get the #2 seed. They'd have to lose a game and then have JAX lose one as well, with PIT winning out, to result in PIT 13-3, Pats 12-4, Jax 11-5. Possible, sure, but not terribly likely, relative to all other scenarios. Actually, as I write it, not that unlikely.
Interestingly, BAL has a better point differential than PIT. Still don't want to see them in the playoffs. Or KC for that matter. Give me PIT again, or LAC. Maybe even JAX (especially at Gillette).
Interestingly, BAL has a better point differential than PIT. Still don't want to see them in the playoffs. Or KC for that matter. Give me PIT again, or LAC. Maybe even JAX (especially at Gillette).
I didn't realize how weak the Ravens schedule has been. Their SOV is .321 this year. They have beaten the Bengals, Browns, Raiders, Dolphins, Packers (no Rodgers), Texans (no Watson), Lions, and Browns again. They have played 5 games against teams with winning records and are 1-5 (losses to Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Tennessee, and Pittsburgh again, with a win against the Lions). This may hurt them in 3-way tiebreaker scenarios.
My assumption is that this post is referring to the Pats 2 losses at the end of the 2015 season. For the record, the Pats leaky defense that season just plain got beat by a 10-6 Jets team on the road by a team fighting for its playoff life. So that one wasn't terrible, other than that it was the Jets. I still have no idea why Belichick conceded the Dolphins game, however.
Not very likely but I believe a 3 way tie at 12-4 gives Jax #1 seed, Pats #2 with Pitt at 3.
Head-to-head would not apply. Nor would divisional tiebreaker rules.
Common opponents: Only one (Texans). So I'm not sure this tiebreaker would apply, as I think there needs to be 4 games among common opponents, and I'm not really sure if that means 4 games total, or 4 common teams. If it is the former, then Jax would be 2-0, the Pats 1-0, and the Steelers potentially 0-1 if their loss comes to the Texans (which seems more likely than it coming from the Browns).
So I think it could come down to strength of victory. Probably still too many permutations here for me to run through. EDIT: Maybe not.
EDIT: If the Steelers did lose the Browns instead of the Texans, it's possible that Jax gets the #1 seed as their 2-0 record would trump the Pats/Steelers 1-0 record. Then it would go to head-to-head tiebreaker between the Pats and Steelers, which would give the Pats the #2 seed.
EDIT: Thanks Jim Ed. Scratch all the above. Jax wins via conference record, Pats via head-to-head vs. Steelers.
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Meanwhile, a feisty Bills team two wins from its first playoff appearance since the 20th century is coming to town, bent on revenge against Gronk. This will be a dogfight.
I get the whole "angry at Gronk" stuff, but the Patriots beat that same Bills team 23-3 in their own building two weeks ago and now the game is in Foxboro.
So while someone might take a cheapshot at a Patriots player, I don't think this game will be any closer than Vegas does as noted by Red Averages.
Seeing 12.5 to open and that is even higher than Steelers / Houston at 10 points.
edit: forgot Pit is at Hou
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As for the rest of the AFC contenders (outside of NE/PIT/JAX):
Remaining 2 games using Playoff Machine tool:
Easy Path to 4-5 seeds:
KC Chiefs: Home versus Miami, at Denver. I think they have righted the ship enough to win both (10-6 if they do, 4th seed)
Baltimore Ravens: 2 home games: Colts, Bengals--should win both at home against awful teams (10-6 if they do, 5th seed)
Hard Path to a 6 seed:
Buffalo Bills: 2 road games at NE and at Miami. NE they are 12+ dogs (I call that a loss). Miami can be tough at home as Pats found out, but give this to Bills who have more to play for.
Tennessee: 2 home games, but both brutal--Rams and Jags. Jags in week 17 likely have nothing to play for, though. If Titans lose to Rams but win that "rester" game vs Jax they are likely in but this Titans team is sketchy and I say they could easily lose even that game.
LA Chargers: At Jets, home against Oakland. This team is also sketchy and could get in by winning both to get to 9-7, but I think they find a way to lose one.
Any of those three is probably cannon fodder for Jacksonville at home with the caveat called "Playoff Bortles".
Remaining 2 games using Playoff Machine tool:
Easy Path to 4-5 seeds:
KC Chiefs: Home versus Miami, at Denver. I think they have righted the ship enough to win both (10-6 if they do, 4th seed)
Baltimore Ravens: 2 home games: Colts, Bengals--should win both at home against awful teams (10-6 if they do, 5th seed)
Hard Path to a 6 seed:
Buffalo Bills: 2 road games at NE and at Miami. NE they are 12+ dogs (I call that a loss). Miami can be tough at home as Pats found out, but give this to Bills who have more to play for.
Tennessee: 2 home games, but both brutal--Rams and Jags. Jags in week 17 likely have nothing to play for, though. If Titans lose to Rams but win that "rester" game vs Jax they are likely in but this Titans team is sketchy and I say they could easily lose even that game.
LA Chargers: At Jets, home against Oakland. This team is also sketchy and could get in by winning both to get to 9-7, but I think they find a way to lose one.
Any of those three is probably cannon fodder for Jacksonville at home with the caveat called "Playoff Bortles".
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The Bills are dogshit. In the off chance they win this week their win grants them the opportunity to lose to the Pats in another two weeks.
But this is aimless -- why are we discussing the chances of a team that Brady is like 28-3 or whatever absurd record against.
But this is aimless -- why are we discussing the chances of a team that Brady is like 28-3 or whatever absurd record against.
Yup. Jags could still get a bye if the Pats or Steelers lose in Week 16 and/or 17.
Only possible wrinkle is if Jags @ Titans is flexed to that Week 17 Sunday Night Football game (that’s still happening right?) and the Pats and Steelers have already both won. Another obvious flex game is Panthers @ Falcons, although the panthers might not have anything to play for.
Yes it’s strange, especially given how close the AFC West and AFC South looked like they would be.