Let's get reasonable (moderate improvements to the roster)
- Thread starter Snodgrass'Muff
- Start date
Your math doesn't work against the CBT threshold. They aren't living above it permanently. They'll be offsetting expiring contracts (Porcello, Panda, Hanley, etc) with extensions as the money comes up, so the idea of signing both Hosmer and JD Martinez likely isn't on the table in the first place. Getting to just under that $237 million (which they would with a Martinez signing) is much more realistic.
Even if all they do is extend the kids (and even if we assume they let JBJ walk to ease the pressure a bit) your'e looking at least:
Mookie - 30M
Bogaerts - 15-20M
EdRo - 15-20M
Vazquez - 10-15M
On the low end that's 70M in extensions. They can let Porcello go and will have Hanley and Panda gone, so that's 60M there, and if Pomeranz isn't extended, that's 73M or so. But that's two pitchers they have to hope they can replace internally or a chunk of those savings are gone already. If Pomeranz is extended, he's at least 20M per.
I just don't see where this money is going to come from if the goal is to extend the window. It's just not there.
Their best bet, by far, is to buy in on the next two years hard, then hit the reset button. That's the reality that Dombrowski has created.
The only thing that ensures a financial crisis and ensures the need to rebuild is doing exactly what you're suggesting in dumping a shit ton of money into players that don't deserve it. If they sat tight and made a couple small acquisitions, they would reset their tax bill again for 2019 when Pablo and Ramirez fall off. Pushing their chips into the middle of the table because x/y/z might happen seems foolish to me. Price could easily come back next year, have a stud season and opt out. Or they could dump him.
Edit: And my math is simply to show that for what they'd give JDM for 7 years they could use that towards Sale being extended. JDM + replacing Sale in the rotation, even if it's just for an innings eater, still is more than a Sale extension.
If the prices are correct on those last three, let 'em go. Unless all three take a big jump forward this year, none of them would be worth those kinds of dollars on a long term basis annually.
Looks like the big thing they need to spend money on is revamping the scouting area and drafting better to replace players internally.
I wonder if this is the year to strike
EdRo has 4 years of cost control remaining and Vazquez has 3, I don't think either one get extended any time soon.
EdRo has 4 years of cost control remaining and Vazquez has 3, I don't think either one get extended any time soon.
Sure, but one of those gives the lineup exactly what it needs and capitalizes on an additional year of Sale's prime and the other does not. I'd also quibble with the idea that Martinez won't deserve the money he'll get. I don't think he's getting 7/200, and if I'm wrong okay... I'll concede that he's overpaid. But assuming it's more reasonable, like 6/165 or so, what kind of production does he really need for that to be a worthwhile contract, or at least close to it?
At 8.5 million per WAR (and if the cost keeps going up, that'll be a low estimate), you're looking at needing averaging around 3.3 wins per season. Can he get there? Papi basically did in his last 6 years. He averaged 3.28 per year, actually. I think if you have Martinez DHing, he's much more likely to avoid the DL (like Papi) and get you that elite offensive production. Compare his last 4 years of wRC+ to Papi's last 4.
JD: 154, 136, 141, 166 (160 if you remove Arizona's production)
Papi: 151, 134, 139, 164
If the cost really is 6/165, there's a puncher's chance for him to actually be worth it, IMO. And even if he comes up a bit short, the increase in their odds to win in the playoffs now would offset the dip at the end.
And if the cost of 1 WAR does keep going up by .5 per year, the average cost of 1 WAR over the next 6 seasons will actually be 9.75, not 8.5, which means he only needs to average 2.82 per season to be worth it.
I'm talking about money that will need to be spent when Sale will be up for free agency, following 2019. If they are extending Vazquez before he gets to FA, that's the winter it'll have to happen. If they want to extend EdRo, it's either that winter or the next. Either way, it's money that has to be spent at the same time a Sale extension would be getting under way.
Travis Wood was DFA'ed by the Padres. Wouldn't mind seeing the Sox kick the tires on him as a bullpen option at a relatively cheap price, as the Royals would have to pick up most of the freight on his contract (Sox cost would be vet minimum plus half of the $1.5M mutual option for 2019).
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2731242-mlb-position-power-rankings-brs-final-top-20-catchers-of-2017
Bleacher Report says otherwise, ranking him 15th this year and stating he'd be higher had he gotten more playing time.
Also, Daniel Flores was the only other exciting catcher in the organization.
Placing 15th on a list of 20 catchers seems like damning with faint praise to me.
Vazquez is fine. Curious to see a full season from him. His defense is unassailable, but I'd be more excited if the hitting adjustments he clearly made before his awesome August had carried over to September, when his hard hit ball rate dropped mightily and he put up a 78 wRC+ with an inflated BABIP.
I think it's safe to see whoever signs JD Martinez will be paying a premium for at least his age 30 - 35 seasons. My feeling is that as a bad LFer, he's going to be locked into DH and I'm not bullish on his athleticism to commit $25M+/ yr to that profile (Maybe he's more AGon 2.0). I'd like to avoid that backend.
It looks to me that Detroit wouldn't have traded Verlander if the weren't dumping any salary they can; if they will eat enough money to mitigate the risk that comes with his age, then ideally he becomes more of an Ortiz type contract at DH; I fully concede that this only works if Detroit is desperate to get out from under some of his deal.
I like aiming for Machado because Xander hasn't panned out the way we hoped, and I'm more optimistic about his overall package. The Sox wind up getting him for some of his actual prime, rather than going straight into the (theoretical) decline phase. If you're going to pay a premium at least get the superstar, which JDM is not. Maybe Machado won't sign with Boston, but we didn't think Price would either, and regardless I'd rather be able to go after a premium FA next winter than spend most of our money on second tier talents. If the Yankees are out on Machado, the Sox have a bit more flexibility to add Harper (but that's a discussion for next year's "going crazy" thread).
Well Mitch was my plan "C" - Santana was plan "A". So is there more and if so what - pitching? It looks like defense and pitching. However, I am not sure defense is what the infield offers. Devers was an improvement that closed the black-hole but he still has a lot to learn. Xander's did not have a banner year but will hopefully be enough. Peddy's out until mid-May. There is room for improvement and Holt is not the answer. I don't think of Nunez as a defensive plus, offensively yes. They're going to need to find someone who brings defense to the table and does it across the most of the infield. Not sure if Marrero has the glove for it. The OF is set but a 4th OF is needed.
Pen is pretty good and may be better with Smith and Thornburg but seems to be missing a bridge to Kimbrel. Many of the guys I would've look at to add are already signed. There may be one or two still hanging around but not sure who. May want to sign Alex Cobb as ERod should be handled gently as the knee seems to keep popping up. Not sure if Darvish or Arrieta are worth it.
Pen is pretty good and may be better with Smith and Thornburg but seems to be missing a bridge to Kimbrel. Many of the guys I would've look at to add are already signed. There may be one or two still hanging around but not sure who. May want to sign Alex Cobb as ERod should be handled gently as the knee seems to keep popping up. Not sure if Darvish or Arrieta are worth it.
I think it's a serious mistake to assume that DD is done on the offensive side. He said he wanted a big bat, as he should. Moreland isn't a big bat. If there isn't a further, more big-ticket offensive acquisition, it'll be because DD couldn't make the deal he wanted on acceptable terms, not because he stopped trying.
If we don't end up with JDM, and given Hanley's and Moreland's struggles against LHP this year, how about revisiting last summer's favorite subject of speculation Todd Frazier?
2017 numbers:
1. 44.9 FB% (4th in MLB)
2. 130/101 WRC+ vs LHP/RHP
3. .226 BABIP (vs a career .271)
4. A newfound ability to take walks (14.4% vs a career 8.9%)
5. Good defense at 3rd, where we may well want a defensive sub at times.
6. 27 HR in 576 PA, with
7. This Green Monster-sized hole in his HR chart:
He got 1/12 this year, and it doesn't seem like the Yankees are going to want him around long term. Could the Sox get him for 2/20? 3/27? That's probably less than one year of Martinez.
2017 numbers:
1. 44.9 FB% (4th in MLB)
2. 130/101 WRC+ vs LHP/RHP
3. .226 BABIP (vs a career .271)
4. A newfound ability to take walks (14.4% vs a career 8.9%)
5. Good defense at 3rd, where we may well want a defensive sub at times.
6. 27 HR in 576 PA, with
7. This Green Monster-sized hole in his HR chart:
He got 1/12 this year, and it doesn't seem like the Yankees are going to want him around long term. Could the Sox get him for 2/20? 3/27? That's probably less than one year of Martinez.
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Re-signing Moreland feels a lot like he stopped trying to me.
I mean sure, I guess some can still cling on to the hope that the Sox sign JDM and trade Bradley. But beyond that? The Moreland decision further closes an already super tight roster squeeze at where you can actually fit that bat, and none of 1B/DH out there are going to realistically steer the Sox FO away from playing out that $20m commitment on Hanley in full. At least to start the year.
That leaves the visible possibilities at what? Maybe, which a ton of emphasis on that maybe, Jay Bruce replacing JDM in that trade Bradley scenario?
That's not my hope. My hope is that the Sox sign JDM and platoon Hanley with Moreland. But only if JDM can be had for well under $150M, and if that happens at all, it'll probably take another month.
None of the 1B/DH out there were going to be "that bat" anyway, especially once Santana signed.
I don't see any reason to think the lack of movement on Martinez makes us less likely to sign him, rather than more.
We're the team that is known to be interested. We keep hearing implausible rumors about other suitors, but it seems likely to me that that's Boras and Dombrowski in a staredown.
We're the team that is known to be interested. We keep hearing implausible rumors about other suitors, but it seems likely to me that that's Boras and Dombrowski in a staredown.
The Red Sox are a likable, quality bunch, many of whom will improve over 2016. Martinez is a probable acquisition, and he will have a galvanizing effect on the rest of the lineup - they will get better pitches to hit. That's what happened during the Ortiz regime.
Then we know exactly what they are going to do this coming season...although I'm not sure where Ortiz's reality show fits in.
And cue a Crasnick tweet about Frazier being willing to move around the diamond. Potential Pedey sub?If we don't end up with JDM, and given Hanley's and Moreland's struggles against LHP this year, how about revisiting last summer's favorite subject of speculation Todd Frazier?
2017 numbers:
1. 44.9 FB% (4th in MLB)
2. 130/101 WRC+ vs LHP/RHP
3. .226 BABIP (vs a career .271)
4. A newfound ability to take walks (14.4% vs a career 8.9%)
5. Good defense at 3rd, where we may well want a defensive sub at times.
6. 27 HR in 576 PA, with
7. This Green Monster-sized hole in his HR chart:
He got 1/12 this year, and it doesn't seem like the Yankees are going to want him around long term. Could the Sox get him for 2/20? 3/27? That's probably less than one year of Martinez.
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The Bruce idea makes sense. He could be the 4th OF and DH. Maybe a contract like Santana - less years more money. Sign Nunez if he'll come back and add an arm in the pen - not sure who - a lefty - Liriano, Watson or Boone. That leaves them under the $237 by a good 7 - 8 million - enough for a trade deadline pick up.
With Buster Olney speculating that Moustakas might have to consider a 1-year pillow deal, there is evidence that this slow market might actually be a depressed market for many free agents. I'm not sure if this is a discount due to the Qualifying Offer, or the glut of corner infielders and outfielders, or both, but it might make sense for the to wait this market out a bit and be open minded as it develops.
Yeah, Boras likes to take his guys into January unless someone wants to overpay (like Ellsbury).
I can take him or leave him at this point. 5-6 yrs at 25 million AAV or let him fly
The Eckersley affair showed us the ugly side of Price, Bradley and Pedroia. You are of course free to like this bunch, but internal affairs were so poor a division winning manager was fired. And I am left with little confidence in the "leadership of this nine".
Perhaps the division winning manager that got fired may have played a part in getting himself fired?
And frankly I don’t see all that much in the Eckersley thing and never did. His whole thing is being bombastic and outrageous, that it rubbed players the wrong way, he should have expected it to boil over at some point. Whether it’s schtick or just who he is, he was a player and should have known it would catch up to him at some point.
If Gronk went off on Zolak on a team flight, I don’t think we’d exactly be talking about locker room issues for the Pats.
And frankly I don’t see all that much in the Eckersley thing and never did. His whole thing is being bombastic and outrageous, that it rubbed players the wrong way, he should have expected it to boil over at some point. Whether it’s schtick or just who he is, he was a player and should have known it would catch up to him at some point.
If Gronk went off on Zolak on a team flight, I don’t think we’d exactly be talking about locker room issues for the Pats.
I've never understood those banging the dysfunction drum. 50 dudes together for eight months and the only negative things we can talk about are the Price and Pedroia incidents? Sounds like a pretty good group to me. I could be wrong but Farrell wasn't fired for internal affair issues. He was fired because the brass thought the kids needed a change. Someone who they could relate to. Someone who could get the most out of them.
Jay Bruce is starting to make some sense as this market evolves if he can be had on a short deal. I still want some major guaranteed 30+ HR power in the middle of the lineup. I am hoping for JDM and I'm starting to think Boras may have overplayed his hand.... 5/$130 with an opt out after year 3 is looking possible and ideal.
My only quarrel with Bruce as opposed to Martinez is that he makes the lineup too lefthanded if that's where we stop. This is particularly an issue because Bruce has a fairly severe platoon split (82 wRC+ vs. lefties for the past three years). But his spray chart looks reasonably Fenway-friendly:
An interesting thing about Bruce is that his slash line in recent years has been brought down by poor OBPs, but these are not entirely or even primarily a function of bad walk rates. His walk rates are average-ish, in the 8-9 range. It's the combination of meh walks, fairly high (but not that high) K rates, and very low BABIP that does the mischief. And that BABIP would be likely to go up in a Sox uniform.
All things being equal, I'd much rather have Martinez. But if Martinez requires 6/150 and Bruce can be had for, say, 4/60, then I think I'd prefer the latter.
Bruce has been worth three wins total over the last four years—that's $23.6M on the open market—and 90 percent of that came last year. I'd really hate to give him $60 million.
I'm struggling to think of the last dead-pull, extreme fly ball hitting lefty that's succeeded here (besides the obvious). David Ortiz he is not.
I'm struggling to think of the last dead-pull, extreme fly ball hitting lefty that's succeeded here (besides the obvious). David Ortiz he is not.
Fair point about his low WAR. 4/60 is perhaps a little much for his skill set.
But he's not really a dead-pull hitter, as both the spray chart above and his splits show. His pull rate on fly balls of 23.6% puts him in the middle of the pack among LHH (#69 out of 125). He's primarily a CF flyball hitter -- 44.1%, #8 among those 125. His FB are distributed primarily in two zones, one in LCF, the other in RCF, with a third, less populated zone down the RF line. The flies to LCF would get plenty of mileage out of the Monster.
Travis Shaw?
I have a hard time seeing Bruce as a candidate for a 4-year deal from anyone. Santana only got 3 years from the Phils.
Maybe he's not at the utmost extreme, but the only LHH with greater pull rates from 2015-17 are Colby Rasmus, Brandon Moss, Brian McCann, Rougned Odor, Chris Davis, Curtis Granderson, David Ortiz, and Logan Morrison.
Where are you getting those numbers? Fangraphs' splits leaderboards aren't showing that at all.
Also, are you looking at overall pull rates or flyball pull rates? The latter is all that matters when we're talking about whether a hitter is suited for Fenway or not.
I was looking at overall pull rates. So yeah, your point about Fenway in particular makes sense. He's not at the top of the list of flyballs pulled.
Probably relatedly, Bruce is the third-most shifted-against hitter in baseball over the last three years. He's hit .263/.260/.352 against the shift in 910 PAs.
Here's another idea for Pedroia stand-in.
Again, not going to get anyone excited: Chase Utley.
His power is pretty diminished but he has just enough pop to scrape some balls off the monster. His positional flexibility is limited to 1B/2B but it's better than nothing.
Again, not going to get anyone excited: Chase Utley.
His power is pretty diminished but he has just enough pop to scrape some balls off the monster. His positional flexibility is limited to 1B/2B but it's better than nothing.
Better than nothing maybe, but probably no better than Marco Hernandez at this point.
Yes. I really don't expect them to go out and find a Pedroia "stand-in" in free agency or via trade. Not when the stand-in duties aren't likely going to last more than 6 weeks or so, and then that stand-in will have to be relegated to the bench. They've got enough in-house candidates that it makes no sense to expend additional resources unless there's a guarantee that they can either move that player in a trade or slide him into a super-sub kind of role where they can extract more value from their investment (essentially, a Holt-type player).
Otherwise, they will make due with some combination of Hernandez, Holt, Marrero, and Lin.
I really like... but never loved Pedroia.... I've always felt mildly let down after his first two seasons. Anyhow I'd be thrilled to see Hernandez or Lin play 6-8 weeks of phenomenal 2B with an .800+ OPS for a starting job controversy when Pedroia returns.
I just feel like Pedroia isn't quite good enough to garner the respect he gets. Health has a lot to do with it... but like Xander, Hanley and JBJ.... health eventually plays itself into the general "game" of a player- it has to be figured into the overall equation
IDK man, ROY, MVP, 2 time WS champ with the Sox, over 50 WAR, and he actually signed a fairly team friendly deal. Pedroia should garner quite a bit of respect. I don't think he has to be done, with his defense, even a league average bat makes him an ok player. I am rooting for him to string a few more solid years together and try to get him in the HoF
No you're right. I'm being a dick.... But his .687 career OPS in the postseason is bothering me. I just can't think of one big hit the guy has ever had. Again... I'm being a dick right now- the GC at our project is expecting our crew to work on Xmas eve day and day on Xmas all a sudden. Anyhow..... if Lin or Hernandez do play fantastic and Pedroia comes back, they'd be a great utility IF to have. Carry on....
It was definitely more than two seasons. From 2008 to 2013, at ages 24-29, he accumulated 35.1 brWAR--this is the 4th-best total for a 2B in that age slice in MLB history, behind only Hornsby, Eddie Collins, and Frisch. The list of 2B who've ever had a better six-year stretch than that, at any age, is mostly a list of Hall of Fame 2B (Utley, Morgan, Carew, Lajoie, Cano, Biggio, Gehringer, Sandberg, Jackie R., Grich, Joe Gordon).
He's declining now, though more slowly than some of us expected, and he remains an average-or-better player heading into his age 34 season, which for a 2B deserves respect in itself. But in his prime, which was a lot longer than two years, he was not only one of the best two or three 2B in MLB, but among the dozen or so best in baseball history.
What about that kid Esteban Quiroz from the Mexican League? They signed him to a major league contract so you'd have to figure he gets a crack at Pedey fill-in while hopefully showing some positional versatility in the spring. I'd love to see that move work out, not only because he's 5'9", seemingly has some power and his freaking name is Esteban Jesus but more the fact that it would be a sneaky-smart signing and they wouldn't have to throw any other money or resources at that position.
Everything I am seeing is saying it was a minor league contract. Regardless, nothing would make me happier if somehow Velazquez could turn into a solid 5/6/7 starter/long man, Quiroz could ably fill the UI role, and Steven Wright could replicate some of his 2016 success.
Sorry guys. If I could read, literally every article states it's a minor league deal with an invitation to ST. Carry on...
Not sure if this belongs here, but Xman working this hard is a favorable sign that he wants to be more than he has been to this stage of his career (2600+ PA 100 OPS+).
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/12/29/xander-bogaerts-building-toward-better-season-plate/4Jq87y5ngip7wLio33Gd6M/story.html
Those suffering in the dark and cold and prone to irrational enthusiasm - take heart!
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/12/29/xander-bogaerts-building-toward-better-season-plate/4Jq87y5ngip7wLio33Gd6M/story.html
Those suffering in the dark and cold and prone to irrational enthusiasm - take heart!