Winter Meetings 2018: Rumors and Speculation

Snodgrass'Muff

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I think I'd rather they sign Moustakas and move Devers to first than Hosmer.
If the AAV and years are the same this is an interesting question. Moustakas is probably more consistent at the plate and offers more defensive value than Hosmer. Does that outweigh the age difference?

The things Devers does well at 3rd would probably serve him well at 1st. So a move there to make room for Moose could make sense.

I wouldn't want him as the big acquisition but as a second bat I might be able to get behind the idea.
 

chawson

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Letting Encarnacion pass to the Indians at a discount last winter is looking worse all the time.
It’s looks possible that DD let Encarnacion slip by even at 3/60 because he knew he wanted JDM all along.
 

nighthob

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Shouldn't Devers get some experience playing first base first?
He was pretty awful defensively last year as a third baseman. How much worse could things be on the other side of the diamond where hitting’s more important anyway?
 

RedOctober3829

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According to Michael Silverman, JD Martinez prefers going to a team with a corner OF position opening. Silverman says the Sox would have to overpay to get him.
That’s because teams in pursuit of the 30-year-old slugger are hearing that Martinez would prefer to sign with a team that has a corner outfield vacancy.

With Andrew Benintendi in left and Mookie Betts in right for the foreseeable future, the Red Sox can only offer Martinez a full-time DH spot with a chance to play a corner outfield spot – most likely left field at home, either spot on the road – on occasion when the matchups are right or a regular needs a day off. Perhaps this development is nothing more than standard pressure-leveraging commonly used in negotiations, but it very well could turn into a sticking point for Martinez wanting to play for the Red Sox or the Red Sox not wanting to be pressured into overpaying.

The Red Sox have informed Martinez that he is their first choice.

Martinez remains open to being a DH so his preference to play defense regularly does not eliminate the Red Sox from signing Martinez. It does, however, put them in a position of having to make an aggressive offer that would distance themselves from competing offers where teams can present a corner outfield position.

Just what defines aggressive is something only Martinez and his agent Scott Boras will ultimately determine.

Last year, Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes signed a four-year deal worth an annual average value of $27.5 million.

It’s not a stretch to imagine Martinez wants a deal bigger than that in both money and length.

A six- to seven-year deal worth somewhere between $28-32 million a year is probably in the ballpark.
The Red Sox have been known for some time to be keen on Martinez, but other competitors have stayed in the shadows. The Sox no doubt are being extremely cautious because they don’t want to bid against themselves.

The Diamondbacks are believed to be trying hard to trade starter Zack Greinke in order to clear room on their payroll for Martinez.

The Giants lost out on trading for Giancarlo Stanton, so they are a candidate, plus the Rockies and maybe even the Dodgers could be in the mix on Martinez.

Even more intriguing is the possibility that the Red Sox face competition from within the AL East.

The Blue Jays have been quiet and are reportedly more interested in middle infield help but with the departure of Jose Bautista, they have a hole.

And if the Orioles are able to trade Manny Machado in the coming days, they can be expected to jump into the Martinez sweepstakes as well.
The Red Sox remain interested in signing free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer, another client of Boras, whose allure was heightened with reports on Friday that the Phillies had signed the other elite first baseman free agent Carlos Santana to a three-year contract worth $60 million.
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2017/12/silverman_red_sox_may_have_to_pay_extra_to_get_jd_martinez_to_dh
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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Indeed: he’s lh with opposite field tendencies. In my opinion the only drawback is expense relative to home runs.
His gold gloves hang out in Jeter's club.
His fWAR by year: 1.0, -1.7. 3.2, 0.0, 3.5, -0.1, 4,1. That's an accumulation of 10 WAR over 7 seasons. The assumption is the team that signs him is going to be paying for the player who most recently posted that 4.1. Perhaps he's turned a corner, but a 1-2 win/yr 1B is not a guy who should be getting a 5 yr/$100M+ contract. He's only a little better than the cheaper 1B options on the market (Duda, Moreland, Morrison, etc.).
This plus the QO draft pick(s) penalty is what makes him an undesirable signing to me. Without the QO thing, Hosmer on a deal somewhere in the 3/45-4/65 range would be a great fit.
I’d read this. It covers most of the concerns: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2018-free-agent-landmines/

Excerpted: “For the bulk of Hosmer’s career, he’s been a slightly above-average hitter while playing a position where hitting is the primary job description.”
Thanks guys! Very informative.
 

sean1562

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JD Martinez at 28-32 mil for 6 years is absurd, and I would rather see what we can get out of the young kids and reassess after next season. I am resigned at this point to a WC game, and don't think JD Martinez alone would even get us to "the Yankees level", especially if he wants to play LF. Just throw 40 mil at Harper for 10 years, smarter than giving JD Martinez 32 mil for 6-7. 7/224?? Hard pass
 

PrometheusWakefield

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Did Scott Boras actually write that column himself, or did he just send bullet points?
Seriously, he slips behind the fourth wall with this line:

Even more intriguing is the possibility that the Red Sox face competition from within the AL East.

More "intriguing"? For who?

And holy shit the leaps of logic there. The Orioles are going to trade their best player and then start the rebuild by signing a huge money free agent. Right.
 

Marbleheader

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I would hope the organization learned a hard lesson about throwing elite money at non-elite players in weak FA years after Sandoval and Hanley. I'm fine with no big free agent signings this year.
 

RedOctober3829

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Could this be a move from the Giants knowing they are about to sign JD Martinez? Moore($18.5 million) and Pence($9 million) are owed a combined $27.5 million against the luxury tax this year.

Hearing Giants about to trade Matt Moore or Hunter Pence (or both) to clear up payroll space and that a deal is done pending a physical.

 

nvalvo

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Did Scott Boras actually write that column himself, or did he just send bullet points?
The more articles raising impediments to the Sox signing Martinez come out, the more certain I feel that Arizona’s interest is merely PR, and we’re in fact the only serious bidders.
 

bosockboy

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Could this be a move from the Giants knowing they are about to sign JD Martinez? Moore($18.5 million) and Pence($9 million) are owed a combined $27.5 million against the luxury tax this year.

Hearing Giants about to trade Matt Moore or Hunter Pence (or both) to clear up payroll space and that a deal is done pending a physical.

They were willing to take on Stanton, wonder why the sudden need to do this?
 

nvalvo

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If the Giant report is true, then they become part of the JDM race in a hurry.

Vacant position and team need.
Job one for them is improving OF defense, so, while anything is possible, I sort of doubt it.

It’s also traditionally been hard to convince power hitters to sign there, at least those whose godfathers aren’t Willy Mays.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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this is starting to feel like musical chairs and DD is going to be left standing.
I’m okay with that. Honestly that Santana deal seals that JD is going to get a contract close to 200 million. I’d rather it not be Boston. Not to say that I’ll boycott the team or anything crazy if it happens (you still support the laundry) but it’s absurd that you’re telling a player and the agent that he’s the number 1 choice. No one else...just you. Silverman is a keyed in writer so I would take a lot of what he says with more substance than a guy like Pete Abe.

3 team race with Boston SF and AZ coming up.
 

tonyarmasjr

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The Santana deal is interesting, because it's more than I thought he'd get. And I'd rather have signed him to that deal than Hosmer. So, Hosmer at 4-6 years for $20M+ per just sounds terrible. I've been against Hosmer from the start, but Santana signing for a more similar $/yr than expected has refocused it for me.

Martinez's bat fits really well on this team, but there's currently no place for him to play. And, I think moving JBJ or Hanley will result in a significant loss of value, since we'd be selling low on either. Is it worth it to overpay for him to be primarily a DH? Maybe. But this team is going to be competitive in 2018 regardless of the offseason moves. How successful they'll be will hinge largely on whether/how much a lot of the players currently on the roster bounce back (Price, Porcello, Bogaerts, Betts, Ramirez, Bradley) or improve (Benintendi, Devers, Rodriguez). If that doesn't go in the general direction hoped, having Martinez signed long term could look really bad a couple years from now with only a wild card game or two to show for it - as opposed to having JBJ as an asset and Hanley's money off the books. Of course, without him, we'd be left wondering what could've been with him... And he's the "home run" signing available. I don't envy DD this offseason.
 

sean1562

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I would rather just bet on the youngsters for a year and go head first in on Harper next offseason if we dont see a lot of improvement
 

Sampo Gida

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We could probably move JBJ for a good hitting 1Bman or DH to free up JDM in LF. However, I am shying away from JDM at that price and with his spray charts. Never was in on Hosmer. Almost wonder on taking a chance on Bautista and hoping Fenway and a change of scenery fixes him, and Hanley gets 1B and then filling holes as needed at the deadline. Maybe some bounceback years will ease the urgency. If not someone will be available for a price.
 

Captaincoop

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This idea that the Sox need to pay Martinez more to DH...it's laughable on its face.

The guy is 30 years old and about to sign a 6-year deal that takes him into his late 30's. Where is the value to him personally in playing OF moving forward? He's going to turn down a deal that pays him even a dollar more than the other offers, because he just loves catching fly balls so much? I find that really hard to believe.

It's a lot easier to believe that Boras is playing his usual games and has less to work with than usual here in terms of leverage.
 

charlieoscar

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The things Devers does well at 3rd would probably serve him well at 1st. So a move there to make room for Moose could make sense.
He was pretty awful defensively last year as a third baseman. How much worse could things be on the other side of the diamond where hitting’s more important anyway?
Red Sox first basemen handled three times as many chances as did the club's third basemen. Of course, most of the difference was made up by throws to first; however, first basemen also get a lot of throws to first from pitchers and catchers that are not counted in those totals. First basemen also have to handled a lot of throws in the dirt. But the main thing may be that Devers is a right-hander and when he plays third, most of the grounders he goes after are to his left. As a first baseman, the opposite would be true.

Perhaps he may adapt very well to a switch and spring training will be enough. But what happens if he doesn't go to his right well enough and handle back-handers or he has trouble digging out throws or handling high or wide throws? Do you want a first baseman who only fields as well as he did at third base? If they put him on first and he doesn't do all that well, will it affect him at the plate?

I haven't had the opportunity to watch him play in the minors, warming up, taking infield practice, and seeing in general how comfortable he looks handling the ball.
 

chawson

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Even with no additions, the Sox are one of the top five teams in the AL in 2018.

Anything can happen, of course, but the only non-rebuilding teams besides the Yanks, Angels, Astros and Indians (and us) are maybe the Jays and Twins.

If that’s how DD wants to look at it, the marginal upgrade of a win is not much.
 

Sampo Gida

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Seriously, he slips behind the fourth wall with this line:

Even more intriguing is the possibility that the Red Sox face competition from within the AL East.

More "intriguing"? For who?

And holy shit the leaps of logic there. The Orioles are going to trade their best player and then start the rebuild by signing a huge money free agent. Right.
Trade a guy with only 1 yr of control and a down season and replacing him with FA controlled for multiple years coming off a great season. Orioles never said they were rebuilding. Like the Red Sox last year they had some guys who had off seasons (Trumbo, Davis, Britton, Jones) who may bounce back and of course they need starting pitching which they could get from a Machado deal
 

Clears Cleaver

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The interesting thing is deadline for early season ticket renewals is Monday. And I suspect renewals are way down already.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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At this point with the asking price for JDM I'd rather see the Sox go into battle with what they have. If Hanley is raking- deal him at the deadline. If Kimbrel is solid again, deal him at the deadline. Free up some big cash and go all out to get Harper. I'd rather throw $35-$40M/year at Harper than $32M/year at JDM
 

Tyrone Biggums

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At this point with the asking price for JDM I'd rather see the Sox go into battle with what they have. If Hanley is raking- deal him at the deadline. If Kimbrel is solid again, deal him at the deadline. Free up some big cash and go all out to get Harper. I'd rather throw $35-$40M/year at Harper than $32M/year at JDM
Exactly. Team needs a star to replace Ortiz. JD is a really good player but he’s not a franchise altering talent. That’s what they need.
 

Green (Tongued) Monster

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At this point with the asking price for JDM I'd rather see the Sox go into battle with what they have. If Hanley is raking- deal him at the deadline. If Kimbrel is solid again, deal him at the deadline. Free up some big cash and go all out to get Harper. I'd rather throw $35-$40M/year at Harper than $32M/year at JDM
If Hanley is raking, and Kimbrel repeats last years performance, chances are the Sox are on pace for another 90+ wins and they will be far from sellers.
 

Adrian's Dome

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This idea that the Sox need to pay Martinez more to DH...it's laughable on its face.

The guy is 30 years old and about to sign a 6-year deal that takes him into his late 30's. Where is the value to him personally in playing OF moving forward? He's going to turn down a deal that pays him even a dollar more than the other offers, because he just loves catching fly balls so much? I find that really hard to believe.

It's a lot easier to believe that Boras is playing his usual games and has less to work with than usual here in terms of leverage.
This guy gets it. It's Boras trying to create artificial leverage since he knows the target market for his client is somewhat small.
 

Devizier

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I would hope the organization learned a hard lesson about throwing elite money at non-elite players in weak FA years after Sandoval and Hanley. I'm fine with no big free agent signings this year.
pretty much

if it's not JD Martinez at a non-outrageous price, dig through the crates for one of the myriad 1B/DH guys and run into the season with what you got.
 

BigSoxFan

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I think I’d rather see if we can get Darvish on a reasonable 3-4 year deal and trade one of the Porcello/Rodriguez/Pomeranz group for 1B/DH help or prospects to replenish the system. At 31, think Yu still has some good to very good years left

Sale
Price
Darvish
Porcello
Rodriguez/Pomeranz

Still prefer Martinez but not at the numbers we’ve seen. And a definite no on Hosmer.
 

DisgruntledSoxFan77

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I think I’d rather see if we can get Darvish on a reasonable 3-4 year deal and trade one of the Porcello/Rodriguez/Pomeranz group for 1B/DH help or prospects to replenish the system. At 31, think Yu still has some good to very good years left

Sale
Price
Darvish
Porcello
Rodriguez/Pomeranz

Still prefer Martinez but not at the numbers we’ve seen. And a definite no on Hosmer.
I'd be down for this. Hell I think if it'd get us a good enough player I'd be ok with trading Price and replacing him with Darvish.
 

Stanley Steamer

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I, for one, don't see the Santana contract as an overpay. 3/60 isn't unreasonable for a very good hitter with other strengths. The draft pick compensation made him less attractive to the Sox.
I think an AAV for Martinez could still be 25-28M, just for 5+ years. If it goes way beyond that, passing is probably the right move.
Boston is kind of boxed into the corner right now, and may just take one on the chin. I prefer free agent signings to trades right now, but they likely will have to go the latter route.