2017 Yankees Offseason Discussion

jon abbey

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NY people saying all the right things:

Bryan Hoch‏Verified account @BryanHoch 3m3 minutes ago
Brian Cashman, on No. 5 prospect Miguel Andujar's glovework at third base: "He's come a long way defensively. He's worked extremely hard on it."

Dan Federico‏ @RealDanFederico 1m1 minute ago
First Boone mentions additions of the starting rotation, now Tim Naehring. When talking about Chad Green making the switch to the rotation, he said, "we may add a starting pitcher in the coming days and not need [Green] there."
 

Lorca's Tribble

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That's too obscene to contemplate.

And frankly, I'd prefer see what we have in guys like Andujar and Frazier before backing up the money train for guys like Machado and Harper.
 

jon abbey

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There's no such thing as being "too good" in baseball, guys get hurt and other teams are pretty damn loaded too. HOU is talking about adding one of the top FA pitchers to go with Keuchel, Verlander and McCullers along with that crazy lineup, although they still have big bullpen issues.

But yeah, wait to make any Harper/Machado decisions until next winter.
 

Murderer's Crow

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There's no such thing as being "too good" in baseball, guys get hurt and other teams are pretty damn loaded too. HOU is talking about adding one of the top FA pitchers to go with Keuchel, Verlander and McCullers along with that crazy lineup, although they still have big bullpen issues.

But yeah, wait to make any Harper/Machado decisions until next winter.
I didn't meant that. I just mean that it kind of looks like a lineup that all of a sudden has pressure on it to score 50 runs every game. Reminds me of the teams during the mid 2000s that had all the offense in the world but it didn't mean shit in the postseason.
 

jon abbey

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Ah, gotcha, although this lineup would have a pretty solid rotation and a dominant bullpen accompanying it.
 

Big John

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Darvish and Arietta are probably too expensive. But I'm reading that Michael Fullmer might be available for a prospect like Frazier and maybe someone else. To steal a line from Rob White, I don't love Fullmer, but I like him. And he's under control for 5 more years.

On another topic, I read today that (according to an unnamed Astros player) Darvish was tipping his pitches, which is how they were able to light him up in the World Series. Of course the "unnamed" player may be working for Joel Wolfe, but it was an interesting read.
 

jon abbey

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Have not seen this discussed anywhere, but one way maybe NY could get CC a little more guaranteed and still keep him to one year is a deal for something like 1/12 and then a second year team option at 12 with a guaranteed buyout of 8, so he gets at least 20 but NY's tax hit is 12 and they have the flexibility of the one year deal. I just thought of this, so maybe there is a hole in it...
 

Kun Aguero

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Have not seen this discussed anywhere, but one way maybe NY could get CC a little more guaranteed and still keep him to one year is a deal for something like 1/12 and then a second year team option at 12 with a guaranteed buyout of 8, so he gets at least 20 but NY's tax hit is 12 and they have the flexibility of the one year deal. I just thought of this, so maybe there is a hole in it...
Wouldn't the tax hit be $10 for TWO years under that scenario, a buyout, and $12 for TWO years if they exercise the option?? I thought all guaranteed money is calculated in a contract for LT purposes?
 

jon abbey

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My head is still spinning that Cashman somehow turned Castro and Headley and Bryan Mitchell and Guzman/Devers into Giancarlo Freaking Stanton, adding no salary this year in the exchange.

This new 'go for the jugular' Cashman has a flood of candidates for 2B/3B already on the 40 man, ideally it will be Torres at 2B and Andujar at 3B by May or June, but they also have Wade and Torreyes and Estrada, I think all can play both positions except Andujar. Just let those five compete in spring training, two are starters, one utility infielder and the other two to AAA, and all five have options and can go up and down all season as needed. They have Nick Solak right behind that group also (not on the 40 man yet but rising fast), no need for Todd Frazier.
 

jon abbey

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Wouldn't the tax hit be $10 for TWO years under that scenario, a buyout, and $12 for TWO years if they exercise the option?? I thought all guaranteed money is calculated in a contract for LT purposes?
Maybe, but my point was just an idea to compete better with a multi-year deal offer from elsewhere while keeping the one year commitment possibility, and any money they can defer to 2019 is helpful, the line goes up to $206M and even more of NY's guaranteed deals run out (Gardner, Robertson), plus the tax rate will have reset and they can go over if they need.

Dunno, have to say I'm glad I am not making this SP decision because there seem to be a lot of options, internal, FA and trade, and even many of the best guys have kind of big question marks. I vote for CC and a Fulmer trade for a package led by Frazier/Montgomery/Estrada or Solak, then it's:

Severino
Fulmer
Tanaka
Gray
Sabathia

German
Adams
Sheffield
 

judyb

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Have not seen this discussed anywhere, but one way maybe NY could get CC a little more guaranteed and still keep him to one year is a deal for something like 1/12 and then a second year team option at 12 with a guaranteed buyout of 8, so he gets at least 20 but NY's tax hit is 12 and they have the flexibility of the one year deal. I just thought of this, so maybe there is a hole in it...
Option buyouts are guaranteed so for luxury tax they count against the pre-option year part of the contract, so unless it's different if it's just a 1 year deal before the option, I'm pretty sure that would do the opposite of what you want it to do, he'd count 20 in year one, and only 4 the option year if they pick it up.
 

jon abbey

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Ah, so much for my loophole. I will go back to leaving it to the pros...
 

jon abbey

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So back to adding a SP, it's worth looking at how long the current guys are under control for:

Severino (through 2022)
Tanaka (through 2020)
Gray (through 2019)
Montgomery (through 2022)

So unless they bump Montgomery for an upgrade, this will be the only opening in the rotation for the next two years. So a multi-year deal for someone while keeping the four guys above blocks Adams and Sheffield and Abreu for two seasons, although of course guys always get hurt, etc. This is why I think including Montgomery in a deal for a SP instead of Adams makes sense.
 

jon abbey

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Also, the Hot Stove specials each night on YES (at 6:30 or 7) have been great, just wall to wall interviews with Yankee personnel, Cashman, Naehring, Damon Oppenheimer. Aaron Boone has been on for lengthy interviews both nights, and I'm starting to see a bit more what Cashman saw in him, at least off the field. His smarts/inisghts don't jump out at you, but he's not dumb, and more importantly he seems super eager to work his ass off to get good at this job.
 

E5 Yaz

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The Astros have agreed to a deal with free agent reliever Joe Smith, pending a physical, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com tweets.

Why is this important to the Yankees?

• I don’t know about you, but if I’m an AL East team and I’m looking at playing the Yankees 19 times, I am signing free agent righthanded relief specialist Joe Smith. Against Smith, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez are a combined 0-for-13 with seven strikeouts.
https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/12/12/winter-meetings-notebook-boston-red-sox-jose-abreu
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, I mentioned that on the main board the other day, glad BOS didn't grab him, although man is that a small sample size.
 

E5 Yaz

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You're more worried about the Red Sox than you are the Astros????
 

jon abbey

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The Astros are still the team to beat in the AL assuming they fix up their bullpen, but NY plays BOS 19 times a year.
 

jon abbey

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Erik Boland‏Verified account @eboland11

Cashman on CC: " There may very well be a chance for us to continue working together. There may not. It’s a business on both ends...He’s certainly of interest. But because of who he is and what he has continued to do he’s of interest elsewhere too"
 

jon abbey

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Haven't heard much about Cobb lately and the Cubs rotation seems to be filling up quickly, I wonder if Cashman could get him for something like 4/60.
 

StuckOnYouk

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I feel bad for the pirates when cashman tells them every good young player on their list is off limits
 

jon abbey

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Honestly Cashman could sign CC and Avila and call it a winter at this point, he can hold out for the SP upgrade he wants (Fulmer?) at a price he can live with even if that is mid-season. For now I would offer something like:

Frazier
Montgomery
Estrada or Solak or Tate (their pick)

and maybe another top arm who is in the low minors, someone like De Paula or Then.

Fulmer and Montgomery actually had very similar seasons last year (17th and 18th in ERA in the AL respectively), and Montgomery has an extra year of control, but that would give NY an upgraded top five with their best three close-to-ready SP prospects still on deck in Sheffield and Abreu and Adams, all will be top 100 guys on the next lists. Fulmer had elbow surgery in mid-September and while he is supposed to be fully back by spring training and of course there would be a full physical, that has to make Detroit at least a touch nervous. That seems like it would be a tough deal to pass up for the Tigers, in the same ballpark as the one they came up with on Fangraphs (Kinsler/Fulmer for Frazier/Sheffield/Adams). They could go for Frazier and a big pitching package of Montgomery/Tate/De Paula or take one of the infielders, both of them are very promising and maybe a year away.

Severino
Fulmer
Tanaka
Gray
CC

German (although it sounds like they might want him as the long guy in NY from what i heard this week, seventh reliever)
Adams
Sheffield
Acevedo/Tate/Abreu

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-dream-up-a-michael-fulmer-trade/
 

Murderer's Crow

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I’m not saying I’m against that trade but it has immediate potential to backfire. Montgomery pitched very well and has an option while Frazier can start right now. Fulmer could be Pineda (oft-injured, never lives up to potential)
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, it's a little ballsy, but then you have Adams/Sheffield etc. to try. And I'd roll the dice on another Pineda, I loved that deal at the time, but really it just depends who Cashman wants and he knows about a billion times better than me.
 

jon abbey

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Danny Duffy doesn't make much sense to me as a trade candidate, since he has 4/60 left on his deal. NY could maybe get Cobb for that same area deal and keep the prospects, Cobb is already proven in the AL East too.
 

Wingack

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I feel like maybe the shouldn't do anything. Teams are looking to fleece the Yankees because the system is deep and guys are blocked and the Yankees have pushed all of their chips in with the Stanton acquisition.
 

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I feel like maybe the shouldn't do anything. Teams are looking to fleece the Yankees because the system is deep and guys are blocked and the Yankees have pushed all of their chips in with the Stanton acquisition.
I agree. Stay disciplined. Stick to internal valuations. Maybe check back in on CC.
 

jon abbey

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That's what I've been saying all along, but I'd like to strongly disagree that NY has "pushed all of their chips in". Just sign CC and Avila and dump Ellsbury even if it has to ba a DFA and get ready for Florida.
 

Wingack

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That's what I've been saying all along, but I'd like to strongly disagree that NY has "pushed all of their chips in". Just sign CC and Avila and dump Ellsbury even if it has to ba a DFA and get ready for Florida.
Yeah that was a poor use of words by me, obviously the chips aren't all in because they are keeping all their top talent at the moment. More to say acquiring Stanton was a sign to everyone that they are pushing for a WS championship this year.
 

jon abbey

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I mean, the only chips they pushed in were long-term salary commitment ones. The only real prospect they gave up was Guzman and he was years away anyway, and their cap number for this year is almost identical, replacing the superfluous Headley/Castro with Stanton, essentially upgrading their DH spot, which last year was Holliday and then Ellsbury/Headley after he broke down.

They still have Torres, Andujar, Frazier and Florial coming on the position player side, and Adams, Sheffield and Abreu on the pitcher side, and all of those guys except Florial and maybe Abreu should be ready to start contributing this year, if called upon.