Harper isn't getting $500. Probably $350 but not $500.
Machado I'm sure would consider $250-$300 as respect for his "healing process" towards the Red Sox. Price said something similar about the Sox and Ortiz. Money solves everything.
Winter Meetings 2018: Rumors and Speculation
- Thread starter Snodgrass'Muff
- Start date
Machado I'm sure would consider $250-$300 as respect for his "healing process" towards the Red Sox. Price said something similar about the Sox and Ortiz. Money solves everything.
Someone said E-Rod would be about a third of what the trade cost of Machado would be and I think that him alone is the ceiling. They are dangling him now because they will get less at the deadline, not more. There's no reason to think he would get much more than JDM got last deadline.
There are what, 3 or 4 suitors at most?
Machado is going to demand a mega package. Nobody is giving one of the games top players for a fringe shortstop or starter.
He's the third-worst defensive player in baseball. He's so bad in LF that his projected WAR goes *up* when he's projected as a DH. None of the NL teams should be interested, least of all the NL West teams who spend so much time in big ballparks, or who, like SF, are trying to upgrade their OF defense. He gives away with his glove a lot of the value he earns with his bat.
He'd be a good fit as a DH/OF5 for a team prioritizing power, with a small left field and an excellent center fielder. Hey look, that's us! If the White Sox are trying to speed up their window of contention, they could likely use him. He seems expensive for the Twins. Toronto could salary dump Morales and upgrade, if they're actually trying to contend.
Sox fans know what a 4+ fWAR DH season looks like. It's hard to do; Ortiz managed the feat five times out of his fourteen seasons in Boston, and came close a few more times. It's a high bar. It requires the talent to post a 150 wRC+, and the health and consistency to keep it up for 150 games. Not many players can do that; this is a guy who has a chance.
GET. IT. DONE.
Define "mega package?"
Can you find a recent example of a one year rental commanding one?
They are looking for two cost controlled starters. Good luck to them with that pursuit.
If they get two prospects in the 50-75 range, they;ve done really well for themselves IMO.
That may not even be there latter, and didn't make any more off-paper reality sense for the MFY then it does here atm/imo.
DD wasn't brought in for his ability to be cute/conservative, and I'm caring less about the overall risk factor involved at this point if he's not even going to explore any alternative upgrade paths otherwise that include adding multiple bats to lengthen the lineup. So regardless of what DD has to put on the table tonight to make it a winning offer, at this point I'd just chalk it up as paying extra to bypass the overly-stubborn decision (seriously, rear view mirror meet 2016's offense already) which essentially leaves me watching the sucky part of our 2017 season on replay.
This isn't worth arguing over and my intention isn't to crap on X or EdRod but I think you are underestimating what it would take. If DD could get it done by giving them both up, it would be done already. In truth, you're probably looking more at Ben or Dev and EdRod + a prospect.
Devers or Benintendi alone for one year of Machado would be fireable malpractice. And we agree it's a stupid discussion but I'd wager Bogaerts would fetch a reasonably highly ranked prospect in trade.
Edit: Verlander and Chapman were special cases in which the teams had never won a World Series in the past 100 years. I'd bet neither team makes that (type of) deal a second time.
Edit: Verlander and Chapman were special cases in which the teams had never won a World Series in the past 100 years. I'd bet neither team makes that (type of) deal a second time.
But you just said it would take a package like it did for Verlander, Chapman, or Darvish whose deals didn't include anyone near the top 20. Those guys are pitchers too and the market is bonkers for them.
Beni and Devers were both top 10 prospects. He is not getting that kind of package from anyone.
This isn't a case of overvaluing our guys, top 10 prospects almost never get dealt and certainly not for positional players with one year remaining and a pretty big salary.
Edit: Here's an article on a potential market for him. Maybe I was a bit on the light side, but I can see the angle. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/where-would-manny-machado-best-fit/
The only specific guess he made was Alcantara from the Cards as the headliner - the same one used in the Stanton rumor.
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After five years of MLB ball and more than 2500 PA his OPS+ is 100 and his BIS Defensive Runs Saved Above Average is -28.
He is not the problem with the Sox, but he is what he is and that is not a star.
If he strikes out on Martinez, I hope he then trys to pry Votto out of Cincinnati.
I don't really know what it would take, but all of these were deadline deals. I'm trying to think of a mega haul in the off-season with one year left.
Actually, I hope its the other way around and that is why it is taking time.
The closest thing last winter looks like Wade Davis to the Cubs for Jorge Soler, certainly not a megahaul, but also a closer and not a position player.
Votto has 6/$150M remaining w/ a $20M team option or $7M buyout in 2024.......................................................or approximately 1/2 of Stanton's
Kind of a semi off the rails thought here. What about Buchholz on a minor league deal? We know he can pitch in the market...sometimes..
I do think Duquette might be learning from Cashman's huge mistake. Cashman had the opportunity to trade Cano and instead hung into him and let him go in the offseason. Either now or at the deadline, I think it makes perfect sense for them to get whatever they can for Machado.
I'm valuing him higher than some of the folks in this thread but that's not an insult to any Sox player whatseover and not intending it to be. It was just an attempt to mix and match with the existing roster.
I'm valuing him higher than some of the folks in this thread but that's not an insult to any Sox player whatseover and not intending it to be. It was just an attempt to mix and match with the existing roster.
I wouldn't blame Duquette. Dealing with Orioles on any matter is a pain in the ass. Angelos just doesn't let his GM make the kind of moves they need to make.
DRS hates him. UZR is more neutral (career UZR/150 of -1.2). The truth is probably somewhere in between: Xander is below average defensively, but not downright bad. But we knew going in that was probably going to be the case. It's the offense that has been a mild disappointment. But quoting the 100 OPS+ (or 101 wRC+) is slightly misleading since it includes about 650 PA before he reached age 22. Since then, he's been at a 107 wRC+, still not earth-shattering but a bit more encouraging.
To resort to WAR, Xander ranks 5th among 34 qualifying shortstops in fWAR in the four years he's been a regular, and 8th among 22 in brWAR. That's an odd definition of a fringe player.
What about two of the deals from the winter of 2014:
Cardinals got one year of Jason Heyward for former top prospect Shelby Miller who just finished his age 23 season in the bigs. They also received Tyrell Jenkins who was just inside the top 100 prospects list.
Padres got one year of Justin Upton for for 4 prospects ranking 3rd, 7th, 10th, and 20th in their system. Max Fried was 3rd and also #53 on the top 100 list but coming off Tommy John surgery.
Manny Machado 2017: 3.5 WAR, 107 OPS+
Jason Heyward 2014: 6.4 WAR, 109 OPS+
Justin Upton 2014: 3.2 WAR, 133 OPS+
My opinion is that X would not be enough and of course Benny and Devers would both be large overpays.
League average bat for SS is wRC+ of 96 as well. It's 106 for 3b, so hopefully he sticks at short until he's a free agent. Steamer has him bouncing back big time. I bet the hand injury really hurt his power.
FWIW, Cora mentioned in his PC today that he thinks he can help X on defense next season.
FWIW, Cora mentioned in his PC today that he thinks he can help X on defense next season.
I did, mistakenly. X is not a fringe SS.
However, SS pretty much was abysmal around the league last year. If the Sox planned to keep Machado at SS and extend him, that could be a great way to upgrade long-term.
I appreciate your well thought out post. The only thing I would add I did not find him "fringe". IMO I see a MLB regular - which in my view is a step above "fringe".
Respectfully,
Hawk
I think Upton is probably the best comp. Remember that in 2014 offense was way down compared to the past two seasons though. 13 guys cleared .500 slugging as opposed to 41 this year.
The potential suitors mentioned in the above article were the Rockies, D-Backs, Brewers, Phillies and Cardinals (who are rumored to be interested in Donaldson).
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If I remember correctly Votto doesn’t want to go anywhere
Also Tommy Hunter NOT Addison Reed is heading to the Phillies
I have this image of Devers' bombs in Cincinnati last year and fear it's the sort of piece you'd see moved in the deal.
Votto + JD is a pipe dream, but damn if their 2018 Marcel projections compare nicely to Stanton and Judge.
Votto: .305/.429/.534 (.962 OPS)
Judge: .272/.395/.570 (.964 OPS)
Martinez: .290/.358/.570 (.928 OPS)
Stanton: .264/.352/.568 (.920 OPS)
Even if that was on the table, Dombrowski can't trade away his only third baseman. He literally has no one else to fill that void. Best case scenario is that Chavis is ready in August and isn't as bad with the glove as reported. I suppose he could trade Devers for Votto then sign Moustakas, but...
Crap, he could do that. I'm gonna have nightmares until spring training.
Yes, Moustakas is what I was going to reply with, or even Nunez as a stopgap to Chavis or whatever.
I'm not projecting this, btw, I just remember that Cinci series and watching Devers hit moonshots. I was listening to the Cinci feed because NESN wasn't working on MLBtv and they were in love with him.
I'm not projecting this, btw, I just remember that Cinci series and watching Devers hit moonshots. I was listening to the Cinci feed because NESN wasn't working on MLBtv and they were in love with him.
The door is open. This is a quote from Votto last year at this time. If they come to him asking Votto to help them out and waive the NTC it sounds like he'd be open to it.
“I’ve never been the guy who has forced people’s hands,” he said. “I’ve worked really hard to not look [bad] in my career and I’ve worked really hard to be a loyal worker, and I’d like to keep that going. Until I feel like I’m being shuffled out, you saw [that] last year with Brandon [Phillips], you saw it in Philadelphia with Chase Utley. Until I start feeling like the broom is on my heels, I’ll be a really nice guy. If I feel the broom on my heels, I’ll be a bit of [a jerk]. I’m not going to be a nice guy.”
https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/cincinnati-reds-should-joey-votto-waive-no-trade-clause-120316
That's fine, but they certainly can't count on him. Just add him to the dogpile fighting it out for the last slot.
I would absolutely look to move X for a good return if possible right now. I think he is still overrated throughout the game. This is not the kid who came up and in his first or second game, playing at Yankee Stadium hit a 425 foot bomb over the yankee bullpen. He has now transformed himself into a slashing hit to all field as if every count is two strikes on him hitter. And is defense is average. And his agent is Scott Boras.
But if there is a team who wants to overpay for him I'm all on board.
However trading 5 years for Benintendi for Machado is an absolutely fireable offense. Benintendi did a pretty damn good job of hitting as a 22 year old in his first full season. I'd imagine after another year or two his numbers will increase quite a bit. And he can play the field pretty well.
But if there is a team who wants to overpay for him I'm all on board.
However trading 5 years for Benintendi for Machado is an absolutely fireable offense. Benintendi did a pretty damn good job of hitting as a 22 year old in his first full season. I'd imagine after another year or two his numbers will increase quite a bit. And he can play the field pretty well.
In the erotic thriller of acquiring Votto and JDM, I’d rather look at Frazier or Castellanos than Moustakas. Maybe even Prado or Headley.
We’d also have to unload Hanley somehow.
I'll say the same thing on Votto that I keep saying about Cabrera. DD can love it to death, and people can reach at it all they want in search of that homerun off season to feel great about. But at the end of the day it's JH's money, and nothing we've ever done in the past would lead me to believe that he'd actually sign off on advanced age contract like that.
I think JD Martinez is the David Price of two years ago.
Two years ago the Sox desperately needed a frontline starter and Price cost them no draft picks and Dombrowski had a history with acquiring him.
Martinez is a carbon copy - maybe even the same age too at the time they acquire him.
I’d be stunned if he isn’t with Boston - the timeframe as DD pointed out may not be at a time of our choosing though
Two years ago the Sox desperately needed a frontline starter and Price cost them no draft picks and Dombrowski had a history with acquiring him.
Martinez is a carbon copy - maybe even the same age too at the time they acquire him.
I’d be stunned if he isn’t with Boston - the timeframe as DD pointed out may not be at a time of our choosing though