Going to LAAA in 2018 - Shohei Ohtani

Harry Hooper

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He bats left handed so you could platoon him with Hanley. Of course, it wouldn't be a strict platoon. Double bonus of keeping Hanley under 500 PA.

IIRC, the Mets wouldn't let Dwight Gooden bat left-handed out of fears that he'd take a heater off his pitching arm/wrist/hand. Ohtani, however, only bats from the left side.

Playing 1B there would always be the possibility of a Cliff Floyd smashup.
 

sean1562

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If I were MLBPA, I would refuse to let Ohtani come over without letting him hit full FA. It is ridiculous that his team can get $20 million and he could get "peanuts", relatively. Japan is a special case and should be treated differently from other international markets.
 

Tokyo Sox

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If I were MLBPA, I would refuse to let Ohtani come over without letting him hit full FA. It is ridiculous that his team can get $20 million and he could get "peanuts", relatively. Japan is a special case and should be treated differently from other international markets.
I find this and the MLBPA stance absurd. Your take is (perhaps accidentally) even more extreme than theirs, since he won’t be a “full (international) FA” for another 4 years. Surely the Fighters should receive some compensation for giving up a star player they would otherwise have under control?

More importantly, Ohtani himself really wants to make the jump. It’s not like the Fighters are forcing him out so they can get the money. Your position is that the MLBPA should say, “hey player whose interests we’re supposed to represent, put your dreams on hold for a few years until the optics are better for us.”

Also, this issue stems from the CBA and is a problem largely of the MLBPA’s own making. Ohtani/the Fighters should not be penalized for that.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I find this and the MLBPA stance absurd. Your take is (perhaps accidentally) even more extreme than theirs, since he won’t be a “full (international) FA” for another 4 years. Surely the Fighters should receive some compensation for giving up a star player they would otherwise have under control?

More importantly, Ohtani himself really wants to make the jump. It’s not like the Fighters are forcing him out so they can get the money. Your position is that the MLBPA should say, “hey player whose interests we’re supposed to represent, put your dreams on hold for a few years until the optics are better for us.”

Also, this issue stems from the CBA and is a problem largely of the MLBPA’s own making. Ohtani/the Fighters should not be penalized for that.
I think his argument was making Ohtani a FA this year. Plus there is nothing stopping the MLB from just saying "F the posting system" and signing players anyway. They are doing the NPB a favor in that regard. I think the reason the MLBPA doesn't fight for players like Ohtani is because he'd be stealing money from players already in the union.
 

Tokyo Sox

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I think his argument was making Ohtani a FA this year. Plus there is nothing stopping the MLB from just saying "F the posting system" and signing players anyway. They are doing the NPB a favor in that regard. I think the reason the MLBPA doesn't fight for players like Ohtani is because he'd be stealing money from players already in the union.
“Letting him hit full FA” didn’t read to me like making him a FA this year. But if it did, how would that work? He’s very plainly not a free agent, and it’s not up to MLB/MLBPA to declare him one.
 

Cesar Crespo

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“Letting him hit full FA” didn’t read to me like making him a FA this year. But if it did, how would that work? He’s very plainly not a free agent, and it’s not up to MLB/MLBPA to declare him one.
The MLB/MLBPA is/are not under any obligation to honor contracts from NPB. They would just declare him a FA in the MLB. I doubt they would do that because it would cripple the relationship between MLB and NPB but that's how it would work. It would essentially make every player in foreign leagues up for grabs though.

The reason the posting system was changed in the first place is because the NPB has 0 leverage. The MLB is just throwing them a bone.
 

sean1562

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I think Ohtani should be able to sign with whoever he wants, for as much money as he can get, this offseason. The fact that his NPB team will get $20 million while he is limited to signing, max, for like 3 million, is absurd. Signing NPB players is completely different from signing 16 year old kids from Latin America, and there is no reason they should be treated equally.

MLBPA should be trying to allow him to sign on the open market. Dice-K got over $50 million in 2006. Ohtani should be getting a $100 million contract.
 

Tokyo Sox

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Edit: replying to bosox79

NPB has the least leverage but they don’t have zero. If Japanese kids want to go out of high school or college straight to MiLB, there’s not much NPB can do except put Tazawa Rule-type measures in place governing the eventuality they return. But that’s a much tougher and less lucrative road for the first 3-4 years than staying domestic, so there is incentive to stay.

I understand what you’re saying re MLB not having to honor international contracts but in addition to that destroying the relationship between the two leagues as you note, IANAL but I don’t see it happening without lawsuits against probably MLB, and definitely against the player for breach of contract.
 

Tokyo Sox

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If I were MLBPA, I would refuse to let Ohtani come over without letting him hit full FA.
I think Ohtani should be able to sign with whoever he wants, for as much money as he can get, this offseason. The fact that his NPB team will get $20 million while he is limited to signing, max, for like 3 million, is absurd. Signing NPB players is completely different from signing 16 year old kids from Latin America, and there is no reason they should be treated equally.

MLBPA should be trying to allow him to sign on the open market. Dice-K got over $50 million in 2006. Ohtani should be getting a $100 million contract.
Ah right okay. bosox79 obviously understood your original post better than I did, sorry. I agree that upon being posted he should be able to sign with whoever he wants, for as much as he wants. I don't think it's ridiculous that Nippon Ham should get $20m, but agree it's ridiculous that he can only get a fraction of his true worth. The problem is that this new rule is partly MLBPA's fault, and I think what would be most unfair to Ohtani would be for them to essentially tell him he has to put his dream on hold because of their shortsightedness.
 

jon abbey

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The artificial deadline to agree on the new posting agreement was bumped 24 hours until tomorrow night at 8 PM EST, sounds like a lot of progress was made today and it's close to happening. Once this happens, Otani will be able to post and the free for all bedlam will begin.
 

soxhop411

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This doesn’t seem good.
“@JballAllen: Multiple sources have indicated 1 issue holding up a new posting system is NPB’s refusal to make posting irrevocable — players who are posted cannot return to Japan unless they fail to sign a contract. #npb should NEVER allow this if teams cannot set the posting fee.”

“@JballAllen: The @MLB_PLAYERS is asking #npb teams to abandon their rights in posted players without regard to the amount of compensation. What in the world can they be thinking?”

 

StuckOnYouk

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He’s coming here and he’s going to the Yankees for an absolute pittance.
Sucks but it is what it is
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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He’s coming here and he’s going to the Yankees for an absolute pittance.
Sucks but it is what it is
I could see the Rangers or the Mariners. The Rangers especially if they bring Darvish back. There's no way he's headed to Boston unless the compromise that the MLBPA, MLB, and the NPB come to an agreement that exempts him from the IFA signing restrictions, and even then I don't think it's exactly likely.
 

StuckOnYouk

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They Yankees made a move today with Miami to acquire another 250K in international spending money, they are pretty much right with Texas for most cash to offer.
Yes I'm aware the amount of money isn't a HUGE factor, but NY has made sure they won't really be topped when it comes to cash.
 

Cesar Crespo

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So under the new rules, Japanese teams can make more than the previous max of 20 mil once the contract exceeds 120.833 million.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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I think Seattle certainly will be one of the favorites, but if Ohtani is going to be making such a low base salary I think he would make a ton more money through endorsements in New York or LA.
 

jon abbey

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I wanted to say that Seattle has a larger percentage of Japanese people than any other US city (true, tied with Sacramento at 1.6%), but since that is only 9000 people, I'm guessing the local endorsements there wouldn't be a big factor.

Really no one knows what this kid wants, and any who do aren't really saying yet. At least now the process will only last another month or so more because it is occupying way way too much of my attention and I'm sure will be until it's decided.

Taking the Yankees out of it, I would guess the Dodgers are the favorites, even though they only have $300K, they seem to be the smartest organization currently, they are closer to Japan, and they sent a big delegation over this summer.

Who knows, though, a lot of teams have been working on this in various ways for years and everyone will put on the full press now, as much as Ohtani and his people allow anyway. The most knowledgable Yankee follow on Twitter (@YankeeSource) is a scout of theirs based in Japan who I have to think has been working on this close to fulltime for years and he is probably not the only one for NY and certainly not the only one in MLB. Interestingly he has gone silent on Twitter since the 17th which I assume is not a coincidence.

https://twitter.com/YankeeSource
 

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Schnerres

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How do you guys (who have seen something in-game from Otani) rate the chance that he totalls fails in MLB?

(Fails, like never topping .200 BA per season and each season of ERA 6+ and 1.50 whip to say some random numbers.)
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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I've never seen him play in Japan but based on historical precedence I'd say that level of pitching fail is extremely unlikely.

However, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he ends up a solid middle of the rotation starter and is widely considered a bust by the fans.
 

MikeM

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However, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he ends up a solid middle of the rotation starter and is widely considered a bust by the fans.
IDK, it's not like we'll actually end up talking about reach'y WAR math there like that article above though, where a team getting stuck with what essentially amounts to an absolute albatross of a contract in reality is somehow not as bad off as it looks on the surface because of some hypothetically applied $9m/per WAR estimate value. Ohtani will be making peanuts after the one time posting fee, which by default turns down the overall hype and expectation dial some. Or generally speaking, it's always easier and better fan/media sport to completely tear a guy down for falling short of the hype when you can point to the boatload of money he's getting paid to do it. Ohtani won't really have that perception factor working against him.

I can easily see him falling short of stardom but still gaining a strong internal fan following as one of the team's supporting type players.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I wanted to say that Seattle has a larger percentage of Japanese people than any other US city (true, tied with Sacramento at 1.6%), but since that is only 9000 people, I'm guessing the local endorsements there wouldn't be a big factor.
They used to be partly owned by Nintendo of America, which obviously has strong ties to Japan. That's not a factor any more.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think Seattle certainly will be one of the favorites, but if Ohtani is going to be making such a low base salary I think he would make a ton more money through endorsements in New York or LA.
I'd guess that he makes far more on Japanese endorsements. I don't think any local endorsement is going to be a big deal. Looking at 2015 Ortiz was the highest earning endorser at $4M, Cano had 3.5, highest ranking LA or NY player was Pujols at 2.5 and Kemp/Kershaw at 1.2, Tanaka at 1M was the highest for a Yankee.
http://opendorse.com/blog/mlb-endorsement-mvp/
All of those guys have national deals, so I think the idea of some major market for endorsement isn't based in reality. If anything the best "local" deal is probably Dunkin in Boston because they use local athletes for National ads (though it's Gronk and Ortiz who are probably outlier personalities and not transferable)
 

Lorca's Tribble

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First time poster here, but have been lurking for over a decade. I'm a diehard Yankee fan but always found the forums here to be the best place to find intelligent baseball discourse on the internet, despite the primary allegiance of the user base here. I have enjoyed following many discussions about the Yankees, Red Sox, and others.

So my first post is about Ohtani (or is it Otani?). Given Seattle's chatter this week, I see many calling the Mariners a serious contender.

But given that money is likely not the biggest factor, I have to assume that WINNING is. If that's the case, I see the Mariners as a longshot. They haven't made the playoffs since 2001, and have only played better than .500 twice since 2004.

If winning is important, the Yankees, Dodgers, and Astros have to be at the top. They are the best set up for contention over the next few years, with deep farm systems, who've also had recent success (as opposed to a team on the verge of contention), and-- at least for the Yankees and Dodgers-- a willingness to spend to improve the team.

I think the Mariners would have to have an awfully good pitch to convince Ohtani and his agent that they will contend. Surely with all he's sacrificing coming to MLB this season, he's not going to want to pitch for a team that might finish in 3rd place.
 

jon abbey

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Homework for the Ohtani bidders this weekend:

"The agent for the star pitcher and outfielder asked for written explanations in English and Japanese on how Ohtani would fit into each organization intending to bid and what makes the team attractive, according to details obtained by The Associated Press.

The memo from Nez Balelo, co-head of CAA Baseball, was distributed to all 30 teams by the commissioner's office late Friday along with materials for the Dec. 1 vote on a new posting agreement between Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball. If the deal is approved, the 23-year-old is expected to be put up for bid later that day or the following day.

Balelo's memo asks for a team to evaluate Ohtani's talent as a pitcher and as a hitter; to explain its player development, medical training and player performance philosophies and facilities; to describe its minor league and spring training facilities; to detail resources for Ohtani's cultural assimilation into the team's city; to demonstrate a vision for how Ohtani could integrate into the team's organization; and to tell Ohtani why the team is a desirable place to play.

Each team was asked to provide its answers in both languages as soon as possible. Clubs were told not to include any financial terms of a possible contract."

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21556666/shohei-ohtani-sends-mlb-teams-memo-asking-how-plan-use-him
 

StuckOnYouk

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"...to detail resources for Ohtani's cultural assimilation into the team's city; to demonstrate a vision for how Ohtani could integrate into the team's organization; and to tell Ohtani why the team is a desirable place to play."

Go get him Seattle!
 

MikeM

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Well I do tend to believe that Seattle would probably fully commit, for better OR for worse, to making 2018 and beyond a full blown Shohei Ohtani Show before the NYY realistically would/could.

So there is that to hope on I guess.
 

schillzilla

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Is there anything that the Red Sox can do to appeal to this guy? I am fascinated by his two way potential, and really want to route for him. But it feels like nobody is mentioning the Sox as a possibility. We had DiceK, Okajima and of course KOJI(!) all having some success here. Perhaps one of them can put in a good word for the team and the city.

I really want his two way attempt to work, as I would love other domestic athletes to be given a chance to try it coming up, versus just having it be immediately dismissed. Maybe the Sox can emerge as a Mystery Team.
 

jon abbey

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Well I do tend to believe that Seattle would probably fully commit, for better OR for worse, to making 2018 and beyond a full blown Shohei Ohtani Show before the NYY realistically would/could.

So there is that to hope on I guess.
It's probably a total coincidence that Cashman has been taking his time filling the manager spot until the Ohtani wooing began. Probably. :)
 

Tokyo Sox

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Is there anything that the Red Sox can do to appeal to this guy? I am fascinated by his two way potential, and really want to route for him. But it feels like nobody is mentioning the Sox as a possibility. We had DiceK, Okajima and of course KOJI(!) all having some success here. Perhaps one of them can put in a good word for the team and the city.

I really want his two way attempt to work, as I would love other domestic athletes to be given a chance to try it coming up, versus just having it be immediately dismissed. Maybe the Sox can emerge as a Mystery Team.
The Sox obviously have a long history with Japanese players, as you note. 2017 was the first season in a decade that they had no Japanese on the team. There’s also a sizable Japanese community in Boston, and a few sister city relationships between Boston area towns and Hokkaido towns. William S. Clark was a president of both UMass Amherst, and Hokkaido University. His “Boys, be ambitious” speech is still quite famous in Hokkaido and the 2017 Fighters’ motto was “Fambitious” — which I guess was a combo of Fighters & ambitious, but the point is that Ohtani will be well aware of Boston and probably inclined to think favorably of the region in general.

Also, the Sox have a Japanese guy on payroll who has met Ohtani and no doubt planted the seed. The Sox also were heavily involved in scouting him out of high school and were thought to be neck and neck with the Dodgers in landing him at the time.

Anyway, there’s a chance, I think!
 

MikeM

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It's probably a total coincidence that Cashman has been taking his time filling the manager spot until the Ohtani wooing began. Probably. :)

If I'm Ohtani and my first and foremost priority is having a team completely commit to the 2 way player accommodation, I'd be skeptical on how much extra rope would actually exist while trying to do that on a contending NYY team. Keeping the speculation within the realm of better case scenarios is cool and all, but it's probably a different ball game there if year one comes with a notable adjustment period that has everybody questioning early whether it's actually helping the team win.

Same would apply in Boston for that matter. Not that I see the Sox having any chance whatsoever in scenarios like this without being able to offer the most money, mind you.
 

Max Power

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It's probably a total coincidence that Cashman has been taking his time filling the manager spot until the Ohtani wooing began. Probably. :)
That makes sense. They're probably looking for someone who has experience managing in Japan, someone who has managed in New York, and maybe even some time in the AL East.

 

Lorca's Tribble

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I honestly think this could give Hensley Muelens the inside track. That would be such a huge appeal to Ohtani.
His being fluent in five languages, including Spanish and Japanese, would be a tremendous asset.

And finally someone who will understand Grigorious' Papiamentu.
 

jon abbey

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Meulens said in his post-interview press conference that he is only about 50% proficient in Japanese but that’s still quite a bit.
 

Lorca's Tribble

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That would still be 50% better than anyone else probably on a coaching staff in the MLB.
And more than Sanchez, who would then be catching two Japanese starters. What is the importance of this fluency though? My gut says it would be pretty valuable, both in-game, and by helping the players feel a bit more comfortable.

I've worked with foreign employers/colleagues and it can be VERY difficult and isolating, both professionally and personally, when your co-workers can't understand you.
 

jon abbey

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That would still be 50% better than anyone else probably on a coaching staff in the MLB.
One thing I've been thinking that people can offer Ohtani is a special dedicated coach who is fluent in both Japanese and English, or other support staff that Ohtani might want to help with his transition.
 

Laser Show

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So is the Ohtani Sweepstakes holding everything up right now? It seems remarkably quiet on all fronts right now. Like the only thing that's happened is Doug Fister signing with Texas.
 

jon abbey

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Ohtani and Stanton both, maybe? Some things have to start happening this week with the non-tender deadline coming up.
 

jon abbey

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He will be posted this Friday and have three weeks to decide, so it will be done by Christmas.
 

ehaz

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If Ohtani decides to sign with a team that does not have a large bonus pool, can anything stop that team from acquiring more money after Ohtani chooses the team but before they make it official?

Ex: Ohtani decides on Boston, the Red Sox have a series of trades lined up (like Travis for $2 M of space) that go through before they officially sign Ohtani.
 

Cesar Crespo

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If Ohtani decides to sign with a team that does not have a large bonus pool, can anything stop that team from acquiring more money after Ohtani chooses the team but before they make it official?

Ex: Ohtani decides on Boston, the Red Sox have a series of trades lined up (like Travis for $2 M of space) that go through before they officially sign Ohtani.
The Redsox can't acquire any more space. They were already at the cap due to previous trades for slot money.