Yankees' 40-man roster logjam for 2017-18

OK, this is a big topic, but one relevant now because I think it is informing some of their current decisions, specifically why I doubt we will see Chance Adams this year as he doesn't need to be protected this winter.

So, guys fall into three categories:

Protected now:

Everyone on the current 25 man roster, plus Castro/Bird/Hicks/Holliday/Fowler/Sabathia/Warren/Austin on the DL makes 33, plus these 9:

Miguel Andujar
Dietrich Enns
Giovanny Gallegos
Ben Heller
Ronald Herrera
Kyle Higashioka
Jonathan Holder
Jorge Mateo
Yefry Ramirez

Need to be added or exposed this winter (this list could be longer, but these are the top ten as I see it):

Gleyber Torres
Domingo Acevedo
Albert Abreu
Zack Littell

Thairo Estrada
Billy McKinney
Tito Polo
Ian Clarkin
Stephen Tarpley
JP Feyereisen

Close to ready for the bigs but don't need to be protected yet:

Chance Adams

So if you assume they need seven spots (for Torres through Polo above), let's see if I can clear nine spots:

Sabathia
Pineda
Carter
Clippard
Refsnyder
Williams
Ramirez
Gallegos

That gets you to 41, and starts to get painful. Maybe Cessa or Austin or Webb is next, I think with the Fowler injury they'd like to protect both McKinney and Polo one more year if they can. They need to move some fringe guys like they did with Gamel and Pazos, Estrada seems like a prime target as he's very promising and very blocked. I'm very curious what Cashman will do as he has almost unlimited options, I would try to do a '5 dimes for a quarter' kind of deal, maybe for a young first baseman with plenty of team control still.

Also moving Headley/Gardner would free up 40 man spots, both are signed through 2018.

terrynever said:

What are the odds? Gardner, certainly, could have value of some sort to a contending team. Headley, though, will be difficult to move. When you read about third basemen Boston might consider to fill its hole, there are at least three solid players out there.

Click to expand...

They can always just release him and swallow the money, I'm just talking about roster spots.

No, this year was CC's additional year, both he and Pineda are FAs, and I am sure someone will pay Pineda more than NY wants to.

Assuming Tanaka doesn't opt out, they will have him, Severino, Montgomery and two open rotation spots, one for Chance Adams and one more open (Darvish? Otani? Domingo Acevedo? many possibilities).

CC would be happy to come back, I think it's a question of what Cashman thinks about his other options. If Tanaka opted out and left, then I think CC's chances of getting a one year deal would be much higher.

I updated the 40 man thing above after all the player movement of the last week.

OK, I'm updating this after yesterday's trade/player moves:

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Protected now:

Everyone on the current 25 man roster, plus Bird/Hicks/Pineda/Fowler/Austin on the DL makes 30, plus the rest of the current 40 man (13):

Miguel Andujar
Dietrich Enns
Giovanny Gallegos
Domingo German
Ben Heller
Ronald Herrera
Kyle Higashioka
Jonathan Holder
Jorge Mateo
Bryan Mitchell
Yefry Ramirez
Chasen Shreve
Tyler Wade

Need to be added or exposed this winter (I don't think I'm missing anyone crucial, but I certainly could be):

Gleyber Torres
Domingo Acevedo
Albert Abreu
Zack Littell
Billy McKinney
Thairo Estrada

Stephen Tarpley
Jake Cave
Nick Rumbelow
JP Feyereisen

Close to ready for the bigs but don't need to be protected yet:

Chance Adams

===========================

So if they are at 43 currently (with the 60 day DL guys) and I assume they need to add six guys (for Torres through Estrada above), let's see if I can clear nine spots:

Sabathia
Pineda
T. Frazier
Holliday
Torreyes
Austin or Cooper
Shreve
Gallegos
Ramirez

And if Tanaka opts out, that clears another spot, but I think as of now, bringing up Chance this year means we expose someone like Yefry Ramirez, a 23 year old SP who's pitched pretty well in AA this year.

Updating this after the moves at the trade deadline:

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Protected now:

Everyone on the current 25 man roster, plus Bird/Hicks/Pineda/Austin/Castro on the DL makes 30, plus the rest of the current 40 man (12):

Miguel Andujar
Luis Cessa
Garrett Cooper
Giovanny Gallegos
Domingo German
Ben Heller
Ronald Herrera
Kyle Higashioka
Jonathan Holder
Bryan Mitchell
Chasen Shreve
Tyler Wade

Need to be added or exposed this winter (this list could be longer, but these are the top ten as I see it currently):

Gleyber Torres
Domingo Acevedo
Albert Abreu
Billy McKinney
Thairo Estrada
Jake Cave

Stephen Tarpley
Nick Rumbelow
Cito Culver (still only 24, still a good defensive SS who can play 1B too, and a .743 OPS with 10 HRs in AAA)
Mike Ford
JP Feyereisen

Close to ready for the bigs but don't need to be protected yet:

Chance Adams

===========================

So if they are at 42 currently (with the 60 day DL guys) and I assume they need to add six guys (for Torres through Cave above), let's see if I can clear eight spots:

Sabathia
Pineda
Garcia
T. Frazier
Holliday
Austin or Cooper
Shreve
Mitchell (out of options, probably will be traded before this)

Gallegos
Cessa
Smith

Headley is under contract for one more season and has been hitting very well since being moved to 1B, I don't think you can count on either Andujar or Torres being ready to take over there starting next April. One of them will take over next year at some point, and that's when Headley will be benched or traded or DFAd.

Ellsbury should be DFAd before November based on just roster composition, but them owing him for three more years complicated things. What I would try to do is bundle him and 1-2 fringe pitchers like Mitchell/Cessa and try to get a team to pay something like 3/18 of his deal, that would free up a lot of 40 man space too.

Edit: Oh, I misunderstood, I'm not sure how that works but it would involve the players having to accept minor league assignments. BOS did it with Castillo and Craig, I just don't know the rules exactly and if it's possible.

Nice, thanks. Yeah, I figured it if was easier more teams would try it.

OK, a quick try at an update here:

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Protected now:

Pitchers (19):

Luis Severino
Sonny Gray
Masahiro Tanaka (he has until three days after the World Series to decide whether to stay for 3/67 or opt out)
Jordan Montgomery

Adam Warren
Dellin Betances
Chad Green
Tommy Kahnle
David Robertson
Aroldis Chapman

Luis Cessa
Giovanny Gallegos
Domingo German
Ben Heller
Ronald Herrera
Jonathan Holder
Bryan Mitchell
Chasen Shreve
Caleb Smith

Catchers (3):

Gary Sanchez
Austin Romine

Kyle Higashioka

Infielders (9):

Greg Bird
Starlin Castro
Didi Gregorius
Chase Headley
Ronald Torreyes

Tyler Austin
Garrett Cooper
Miguel Andujar
Tyler Wade

Outfielders (6):

Aaron Judge
Aaron Hicks
Brett Gardner
Jacoby Ellsbury

Clint Frazier
Jake Cave

So that is 37 by my count (I definitely could have missed someone, let me know).

Need to be added or exposed this winter (this list could be longer, but these are the top ten as I see it currently):

Gleyber Torres
Domingo Acevedo
Albert Abreu
Billy McKinney
Thairo Estrada

Nester Cortes
Anyelo Gomez
Stephen Tarpley
Cito Culver (still only 24, still a good defensive SS who can play 1B too, and a .743 OPS with 10 HRs in AAA)
Mike Ford
JP Feyereisen

Close to ready for the bigs but don't need to be protected yet:

Chance Adams

===========================

So they are at 37 currently, let's say the top five there need protecting plus 1-2 others, so they need to drop 3-4 guys from above. Cooper or Austin is one and then I think pick from the AAAA pitchers, Mitchell, Cessa, Smith, Gallegos, Shreve...

I'm not totally sure from internet research, but it looks like maybe the date to finalize 40 man rosters before the rule 5 draft is November 20, and that is the same date every year (?). So, a little less than a month from now.

Nick Rumbelow and Jake Cave added to the 40 man, I will update the post two posts up accordingly.

Bryan Mitchell seems like a lock to be traded very soon, as he is out of options. He could really blossom somewhere (or not), but NY isn't going to be that place.

Monday at 8 PM EST is the deadline to set rosters, I will be shocked if NY doesn't move at least Mitchell and probably a few more guys by then (Cessa? Cooper?). They need to clear at least three spots (details a few posts up) and maybe more depending on how Cashman feels about the Cortes/Gomez/Tarpley group.

Nick Rumbelow to Seattle for two young arms who don't have to be protected yet (one was born in 2000 if you really want to feel old).

So NY is at 37, one last guess at what they will do by Monday night:

Added (8, the first 5 are musts, the next 3 are all young arms that are maybe too far away to help this year but will likely get snatched if left unprotected and Tarpley is a lefty):

Gleyber Torres
Domingo Acevedo
Albert Abreu
Billy McKinney
Thairo Estrada

Nester Cortes
Anyelo Gomez
Stephen Tarpley

Traded/dropped (5):

Bryan Mitchell
Chasen Shreve
Caleb Smith
Garrett Cooper
Romine or Higashioka

The @Yankees today announced they acquired minor league LHP Reiver Sanmartin from Texas in exchange for RHP Ronald Herrera.

Do we know anything about Sanmartin?

So NY protected the five essential guys (Torres, Abreu, Acevedo, McKinney and Estrada) plus a sixth who has barely pitched above rookie ball in Jonathan Loaisiga. They are somewhat rolling the dice on Cortes/Gomez/Tarpley and hoping that they will be returned at some point after very likely being selected in the rule 5, but if any are not picked, NY can watch them develop for another season before having to decide on them again next November.

And they still will move guys like Mitchell and Shreve and Romine and hopefully Ellsbury as they need 40 man spots. here is the final 40 man list going into the Rule 5 draft:

Pitchers (20):

Luis Severino
Sonny Gray
Masahiro Tanaka
Jordan Montgomery

Adam Warren
Dellin Betances
Chad Green
Tommy Kahnle
David Robertson
Aroldis Chapman

Albert Abreu
Domingo Acevedo
Luis Cessa
Giovanny Gallegos
Domingo German
Ben Heller
Jonathan Holder
Jonathan Loaisiga
Bryan Mitchell
Chasen Shreve


Catchers (3):

Gary Sanchez
Austin Romine

Kyle Higashioka

Infielders (10):

Greg Bird
Starlin Castro
Didi Gregorius
Chase Headley
Ronald Torreyes

Tyler Austin
Miguel Andujar
Tyler Wade
Gleyber Torres
Thairo Estrada

Outfielders (7):

Aaron Judge
Aaron Hicks
Brett Gardner
Jacoby Ellsbury

Clint Frazier
Billy McKinney
Jake Cave