2017 Yankees Offseason Discussion

terrynever

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It's not really new. I think I mentioned earlier in this thread that Sherman said that was the plan.

I fully support this idea by the way.
One of my old sports writers worked with Sherman at the NY Post for a year or two. He says one of the reasons Sherman is so good is that Cashman has been his best off-the-record source for many years. They do think alike, too. Roughly the same age. Both very bright. They trust each other.
 

jon abbey

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I have no idea why you would want to try to stretch out Green, honestly. Not only do you already have a full MLB rotation assuming you bring back CC (Severino/Tanaka/Gray/CC/Montgomery) but if you get Ohtani, that is six guys, plus German and Adams and Sheffield and others pushing from below. Green can be a dominant multi-inning reliever, not sure why you'd mess with that when your rotation depth is at least as much as your bullpen depth.

Sign CC, sign Otani if you can, trade Betances and keep Green in the bullpen, although it's not like stretching him out now really matters so much, it's just a waste of time and possibly misplaced energy, like stretching out Adam Warren last spring. Green was absolutely dominant in AAA in 2016 as a starter (sub 2 ERA) and had that one awesome start in Aug 2016 against the Blue Jays, but it doesn't make sense to me unless they're not bringing back CC for some reason, or maybe it's just a negotiating thing until they actually do get CC signed.
 

terrynever

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I have no idea why you would want to try to stretch out Green, honestly. Not only do you already have a full MLB rotation assuming you bring back CC (Severino/Tanaka/Gray/CC/Montgomery) but if you get Ohtani, that is six guys, plus German and Adams and Sheffield and others pushing from below. Green can be a dominant multi-inning reliever, not sure why you'd mess with that when your rotation depth is at least as much as your bullpen depth.

Sign CC, sign Otani if you can, trade Betances and keep Green in the bullpen, although it's not like stretching him out now really matters so much, it's just a waste of time and possibly misplaced energy, like stretching out Adam Warren last spring. Green was absolutely dominant in AAA in 2016 as a starter (sub 2 ERA) and had that one awesome start in Aug 2016 against the Blue Jays, but it doesn't make sense to me unless they're not bringing back CC for some reason, or maybe it's just a negotiating thing until they actually do get CC signed.
Maybe the plan is not to sign CC?
 

Big John

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I would hope to start Otani every 5th or 6th day and DH him against right handers, assuming he shows that he can hit major league pitching. He can also hit when he's pitching, but then the team loses the DH.
 

Big John

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Amazing how many good infielders two small islands have produced. In addition to Didi, Bogaerts and Schoop, Andrelton Simmons is a hell of a player
 

Murderer's Crow

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I have no idea why you would want to try to stretch out Green, honestly. Not only do you already have a full MLB rotation assuming you bring back CC (Severino/Tanaka/Gray/CC/Montgomery) but if you get Ohtani, that is six guys, plus German and Adams and Sheffield and others pushing from below. Green can be a dominant multi-inning reliever, not sure why you'd mess with that when your rotation depth is at least as much as your bullpen depth.

Sign CC, sign Otani if you can, trade Betances and keep Green in the bullpen, although it's not like stretching him out now really matters so much, it's just a waste of time and possibly misplaced energy, like stretching out Adam Warren last spring. Green was absolutely dominant in AAA in 2016 as a starter (sub 2 ERA) and had that one awesome start in Aug 2016 against the Blue Jays, but it doesn't make sense to me unless they're not bringing back CC for some reason, or maybe it's just a negotiating thing until they actually do get CC signed.
I’ve been thinking about this and I think there could be three possibilities.

1) The org believes he’s an ace. Not a back of the rotation guy but something more.

2) The team will have money to spend this offseason and they can more easily target RP with it in a cost controlled way than SP.

3) Cashman has a reputation for telling the media something (e.g. He’s ready to give CF to Bubba Crosby) that doesn’t turn out to be what the team’s preference is but their backup plan.
 

terrynever

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It's just a spring training experiment. Green's performance in the spring will be evaluated, and then the coaching staff and GM will make a decision as to where Chad Green can best help the 2017 team.
 

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jon abbey

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NY clears a 40 man spot by moving Nick Rumbelow to SEA for two young pitchers, a 2016 international signing (only 17) and a 2017 draft pick. The 2017 pick was JP Sears, who was up to #21 on SEA's prospect list (according to MLB.com) despite only being an 11th round pick this past summer.
 

jon abbey

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I’m slightly surprised he was one of the ones to go, I thought he’d be relatively high on the list of possible minor league bullpen help next year as he dominated down the stretch in AAA last year, but maybe Cody Carroll’s blossoming made that easier.
 

jon abbey

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MLB.com put 17 year old Juan Then into NY's top 30 prospects, #28 (not sure who he bumped):

=================================

Juan Then | Rank: 28 (Preseason: NR)
Team: Unassigned ETA: 2021
Position: RHP Age: 17 DOB: 02/07/2000
Bats: R Throws: R Height: 6' 1" Weight: 155 lb.
Signed: July 2, 2016 - SEA
Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45

The Yankees' depth of talent in the big leagues and in the Minors led to a 40-man roster crunch this offseason, one result of which was the November trade of Nick Rumbelow to the Mariners. In return, New York received Then (who signed for $77,500 out of the Dominican Republic in 2016) and left-hander J.P. Sears (an 11th-rounder from The Citadel in 2017).

Though Then wasn't a big-money signing, he offers upside and surprising polish for such a young pitcher. His fastball sits at 90-92 mph, tops out at 94 mph and should add more velocity as he gets stronger and becomes more consistent with his delivery. He throws strikes with his changeup and has good depth on his curveball, though it's his least reliable pitch.

Once Then matures physically, he could have three solid or better pitches in his arsenal. He had no problem throwing strikes in his pro debut, another reason to think he might develop into a mid-rotation starter.
 

jon abbey

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So now that the offseason 40 man is set, NY has 10 infielders protected:

Greg Bird
Starlin Castro
Didi Gregorius
Chase Headley
Ronald Torreyes

Tyler Austin
Miguel Andujar
Tyler Wade
Gleyber Torres
Thairo Estrada

With Torres and Estrada now on the 40 man along with Nick Solak behind them, Castro really should be moved if at all possible. Torres should be ready to take over there a month or two into the season, and before then Wade or Torreyes or maybe even Estrada can cover it. That would also give them a chance to see a bit better what they have in Wade with some regular MLB playing time, future utility man as was hoped (he plays six positions, all but 1B/C), trade chip or bust. 2018 is the year for NY to see what they have in house before making any decisions about the mammoth superstar FAs next winter.

I can't wait to see this team once Ellsbury and Headley and Castro are all gone. I think Headley may stick around the last year of his deal as a backup 1B/3B at least, but I am really really hoping the other two don't make it to spring training.
 

cromulence

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Shoulder surgery for Judge, so it was more of an issue than they wanted people to know. Impressive that he was able to play as well as he did in September and October if it was that bad.
 

Wingack

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So it looks like if the Yankees miss out on Otani, the ITL money they have can at least be spun around to snap up Maitan.

They are getting one or the other this winter.
 

jon abbey

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So it looks like if the Yankees miss out on Otani, the ITL money they have can at least be spun around to snap up Maitan.

They are getting one or the other this winter.
I think that's overly simplistic, there are other possibilities too (all of the other Braves guys, plus a handful of top 20 prospects from this past offseason that are still unsigned) and other teams have money too. Fingers crossed for Ohtani though...
 

jon abbey

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OK, so now that we've got the 40 man set and Ohtani is cleared to come over, here is my dream 'rest of offseason' for NY:

Move Ellsbury to whoever will pay the most of his deal, 3/24 or 3/27, throw in guys like Mitchell and Cessa if you need to.
Move Castro's remaining 2/24 (plus a 2020 option), this seems possible. If Torres isn't ready out of spring training, it shouldn't be long after, and Wade/Torreyes can fill in any gap.
Resign Sabathia, ideally a one year deal but two if you really need to. He is (still) better than almost everyone seems to think, NY will almost certainly pay him considerably less than he would get if he was willing to sign anywhere.
Sign Ohtani (obviously every team is hoping for this to different degrees, but this is my dream).
Look into moving Betances if you can get someone to give up good value for his remaining two seasons, otherwise keep him for now.
Upgrade backup catcher to someone who is both better than Romine and who can tutor Sanchez defensively, maybe Alex Avila. NY can overpay some here if they need.

Then this is your team:

Rotation:

Severino
Tanaka
Ohtani
Gray
CC

(AAA depth: Montgomery, German, Adams, Sheffield, Abreu)

Bullpen:

Heller
Warren
Green
Betances (if not traded)
Kahnle
Robertson
Chapman

(AAA depth: Gallegos, Holder, Cody Carroll, maybe Acevedo or Loaisiga?)

No bullpen lefties except Chapman, you could force Shreve in there again but I don't think he's good enough.

Lineup:

Gardner LF
Judge RF
Bird 1B
Sanchez C
Gregorius SS
Hicks CF
Torres 2B
Headley 3B

Avila
Frazier
Andujar
Wade or Torreyes
Austin

(AAA depth: McKinney, Cave, Estrada, Wade or Torreyes, Higashioka)

DH can be covered in numerous ways here, Frazier, Andujar, Ohtani, plus half-rest days for Sanchez and Judge.

Gardner and Headley are on the last year of their deals, and their hopeful replacements would already be on the roster here in Frazier and Andujar, which would leave just Florial (bumping Hicks in CF) to fully complete NY's lineup makeover. Gardner has a $12.5M 2019 team option and will undoubtedly not go easily, good luck to him.
 

jon abbey

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So it occurred to me that with Cashman working under an expired contract, he is pretty clearly betting on himself to crush this offseason, whether that means Ohtani or the manager hunt or whatever else. He and Hal have a "handshake deal", but maybe the specifics are waiting on what he does before they sign a real deal.
 

Murderer's Crow

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So it occurred to me that with Cashman working under an expired contract, he is pretty clearly betting on himself to crush this offseason, whether that means Ohtani or the manager hunt or whatever else. He and Hal have a "handshake deal", but maybe the specifics are waiting on what he does before they sign a real deal.
The quietness of this offseason so far really sucks. I'd appreciate a bone where they can just finalize the damn deal and make it public. I'm not expecting a loud offseason but how about a manager and a GM?
 

jon abbey

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They have a GM, he's working his ass off, he just doesn't have a publicly announced contract yet. Not sure what the rush is for a manager, no games for months still.
 

jon abbey

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So Ohtani has announced that the Yankees are out of the running on him, so now NY has to make it official with CC and decide what they will do at DH. Clint Frazier and Andujar could both help there, since it looks like neither will be in the lineup as of now.
 

jon abbey

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Also NY has $3.5M to go after those Braves prospects as well as the other top unsigned guys from last summer.
 

jon abbey

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This also means that we will see more NY prospects in the rotation this year as fill-ins, even assuming they sign CC. This is my guess at the rotation depth right now:

Severino
Tanaka
Gray
(CC)
Montgomery

German
Adams
Sheffield
Abreu

Hopefully Mitchell and Cessa are no longer in the mix, but they are both still on the 40 man roster, for now anyway.
 

Wingack

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I think the Yankees will still want to make some kind of splash this offseason, it should be interesting to see what we hear them attached to if it is not Ohtani now.
 

jon abbey

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I think the Yankees will still want to make some kind of splash this offseason, it should be interesting to see what we hear them attached to if it is not Ohtani now.
I mean, they could get a bat for DH a la Holliday last year, but I think it will just be CC and a (very good) backup catcher. The open DH spot would allow Cashman to see better what he has in Frazier and/or Andujar before moving on from the veterans ahead of them.
 

jon abbey

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Also NY has $3.5M to go after those Braves prospects as well as the other top unsigned guys from last summer.
Apologies to Sox fans for posting this list (Daniel Flores trigger warning), but 3 of the top 15 international prospects from last summer are still unsigned. There may be reasons for that besides them waiting to see how the Ohtani sweepstakes would shake out, but if not, those might be targets for NY now along with the Braves' prospects.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2017-top-50-international-prospects-signing/#ddoEIgykXx4X26Mt.97
 

jon abbey

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Jon Abbey & Co. -- Would love to hear your guys' thoughts on Andujar. Fangraphs prospects writer said he could be anywhere from a 55 to a 40, wondering your take. Is his bat legit? Looking to learn more about him.
He came up for two games last summer as a DH and looked awesome, 4-7 with two doubles and the ball jumping off his very quick bat. NY didn't think his defense was quite ready at 3B yet last year so they traded for Frazier instead of promoting him. But no one questions his bat (his OPS in AAA at 22 last year's was better than Judge's in 2016 in AAA at 24) and to me the key thing is that NY hasn't tried moving him to any other positions, so clearly they believe in him as a 3B. His arm is very good but his footwork is sloppy sometimes, reports had him continuing to improve at the end of last season.

The organizational factor with him is that Didi is NY's SS, so Gleyber Torres will need to be either their 2B or 3B. I have been operating under the assumption that Torres will push out Castro from 2B, but if he ends up at 3B, that could complicate Andujar's future with NY. And also Manny Machado's free agency looms next winter as a possibility...
 

jon abbey

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Al Pedrique, who has been a very well-regarded manager for Scranton the last few seasons, will be Oakland's new first base coach, so another spot Cashman needs to fill.
 

jon abbey

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Cashman said they are vetting lots of guys for coaching positions, and he expects to have the coaching staff set within two weeks. Also he said that he doesn't think the bench coach necessarily has to have MLB managing experience, because Larry Rothschild does.
 

jon abbey

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I thought there was zero chance that NY would trade for Stanton this winter, but now I am upping that very very slightly, I don't think it would be impossible although still very unlikely.
 

Wingack

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Yankees could definitely make a better offer than most other teams could.

I'm into it. If that is the list, Stanton obviously wants to go to a winner.
 

Murderer's Crow

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I thought there was zero chance that NY would trade for Stanton this winter, but now I am upping that very very slightly, I don't think it would be impossible although still very unlikely.
I'm with you on this. Cashman learned his Arod lesson and to jump back into a nearly identical situation and contract with Stanton would be surprising to say the least.
 

jon abbey

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They would have to couple it with moving Ellsbury (not necessarily to the Marlins), maybe Castro or Headley too.
 

jon abbey

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Wait, what happened to the deals with SF and St Louis?
He has a full no-trade and doesn’t seem to want to go to either, but it also doesn’t seem like he’s fully vetoed either yet.

The communication between him and Marlins management has been awful, they should have at least talked to him a bit earlier in the process.