Let's Get Crazy (NY version)

jon abbey

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So most fan-instigated trade proposals make no sense, but this one fascinated me for some reason. I haven't really analyzed it and there is zero chance it would actually happen in the real world, but I thought it was worth passing on anyway to see what people thought:

NY gets Stanton, Ozuna, Yelich
MIA gets Judge, Ellsbury

I haven't even taken the time to look at things like how long Osuna and Yelich are under control, and again there is zero chance of NY moving Judge, but somehow I thought this was interesting and worth passing on anyway.

Edit: I have added Hicks, Clint Frazier and a young pitcher like German or Acevedo to NY's side of the deal.
 

jon abbey

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Stanton's contract we all know about, Ozuna is a FA after 2019, Yelich is signed through 2021 with a 2022 option.
Judge is under team control through 2022, Ellsbury's ridiculous deal goes through 2020 with a $5M buyout in 2021.
 

E5 Yaz

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So most fan-instigated trade proposals make no sense, but this one fascinated me for some reason. I haven't really analyzed it and there is zero chance it would actually happen in the real world, but I thought it was worth passing on anyway to see what people though:

NY gets Stanton, Ozuna, Yelich
MIA gets Judge, Ellsbury

I haven't even taken the time to look at things like how long Osuna and Yelich are under control, and again there is zero chance of NY moving Judge, but somehow I thought this was interesting and worth passing on anyway.
Sorry dude, but that's insane. Even if the Marlins wanted to trade their entire starting outfield, they'd get a far better return by doing it individually and making three separate deals
 

DJnVa

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Yeah. Ellsbury is negative value in a trade.

That trade is worse than some WEEI callers could come up with.
 

jon abbey

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Heh, like I said, it would never actually happen for many reasons, but I don't think it's really so lopsided, although maybe it depends what you think of Judge going forward. Also I think NY would have to add Hicks, so maybe that would help.

To be clear, I don't even think I'd do this trade if I was Cashman, there's really no reason for NY to take on Stanton's deal after what easily could have been the best season of his career. I was just curious what others thought.

(And no, it came from the comments section at RAB, I haven't been able to tolerate Francesa for a few decades now.)
 

jon abbey

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Sorry dude, but that's insane. Even if the Marlins wanted to trade their entire starting outfield, they'd get a far better return by doing it individually and making three separate deals
Again, mostly playing devil's advocate, but they couldn't get someone as good as Judge, who would be a very easy sell as a Stanton replacement to the Miami fans.
 

jon abbey

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WAR from last year (from ESPN, I think they use fWAR)

Judge 8.1
Hicks 3.9
Ellsbury 1.7

total-13.7

Stanton 7.6
Ozuna 5.8
Yelich 3.9

total-17.3

MIA would be saving quite a bit of money and would be able to build around Judge going forward.

What if NY included Clint Frazier and Domingo German (who they got from MIA originally and who looks ready to be in a big league rotation now) also?
 

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Again, mostly playing devil's advocate, but they couldn't get someone as good as Judge, who would be a very easy sell as a Stanton replacement to the Miami fans.
It's a Yankee fan wet dream of a trade idea ... so I'll just back away slowly and let you have your fun
 

jon abbey

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The MIA guys will make around $43M combined this year, the NY guys around $25M.
 

jon abbey

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It's a Yankee fan wet dream of a trade idea ... so I'll just back away slowly and let you have your fun
OK, I threw in Hicks, Clint Frazier and Domingo German (or Acevedo if they prefer him) since the original post, but fair enough.
 

jon abbey

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FWIW, Dave Cameron’s mid-July trade value rankings had Judge 6th and Yelich 27th.
 

Darnell's Son

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FWIW, Dave Cameron’s mid-July trade value rankings had Judge 6th and Yelich 27th.
Cameron is a click-bait artist.

To elaborate: He knows Yankees fans love them some Yankees so he (and most baseball outlets) inflates the value of Yankees and Red Sox players because clicks.

Clicks uber ailles or something, I dunno, I didn't take Latin
 

Darnell's Son

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He writes the stories that no one wants to write on FanGraphs (ie the hot takes), it's his job. He also inflates big market players to get clicks. I'm not saying Judge isn't the balls, but you gotta take his opinion with a grain of salt.

ETA: "Click-bait artist" is probably too strong, but I think it's fair to say that he writes to his intended audience.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, definitely good to know, I always mostly ignore Heyman's takes on Boras clients, especially when they're FAs, but never knew that about Cameron.
 

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Not saying he's worth ignoring either, he's got great connections and is a good writer on top of knowing baseball, just that as Yanks/Sox fans we need to realize he wants our clicks.
 

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To get on-topic, if I'm Miami, then there's no way in hell I'm dealing my whole outfield to one team unless I'm getting Trout, or an ace and a solid position player.
 

BigMike

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yeah I don't see that one, but funny, it is not far from what I think the Stanton potential becomes for NYY

Stanton for Ellsbury, Frazier, Acevedo/Guzman, Estrada.

Yanks deal from Surplus, Elllsbury going lets them save cash for this season to stay under. And the talent going to Florida makes it palatable to eat the bad contract and gives them
 

jon abbey

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I think if Harper was the one who had the giant deal with Miami that they were looking to move, NY would be all over that, but I don't think that Stanton is the giant deal they want to add long-term. The package above seems very reasonable, though.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Who is the pitcher the Yankees will get over the next week or two?

Since this is the let's get crazy thread, I'll push aside the more likely scenarios like Cole or Fuller and jump to impossible town.

Bumgarner for Florial or Torres and Chance Adams.

or

Archer for Frazier +++
 

jon abbey

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So this is instead of CC or in addition to CC? I say they just get CC this offseason as it seems like if they add another SP, it should be a top 5 or 10 guy in all of MLB and I'm not sure who that would be. I would feel out Arizona about Robbie Ray, something like Frazier and Adams and Solak, but I highly doubt Cashman would go nearly far enough to get that one done.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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So this is instead of CC or in addition to CC? I say they just get CC this offseason as it seems like if they add another SP, it should be a top 5 or 10 guy in all of MLB and I'm not sure who that would be. I would feel out Arizona about Robbie Ray, something like Frazier and Adams and Solak, but I highly doubt Cashman would go nearly far enough to get that one done.
Why would Arizona trade Robbie Ray?
 

jon abbey

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Why would Arizona trade Robbie Ray?
They wouldn't unless they were totally bowled over, that was what I was trying to say, sorry. I went through a list of the top 10 or so guys, especially younger ones, and it felt like maybe he had a chance of being traded for, where most of the top guys would have no chance even if bowled over.
 

jon abbey

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Right, they did get Pineda for Montero once upon a time and Pineda was coming off an awesome rookie year.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Why would anyone trade any good young pitcher? That is what makes this tricky.

Now that they have missed out on Ohtani, is it possible that Paxton could be pried away from Seattle? Again, why would these teams trade good young pitching, but Cash has to try.
Rebuilding teams, maybe. But Arizona was pretty good last year and finally seems to have its rotation in order.

Paxton maybe. But yeah, really, really bowled over.
 

Lorca's Tribble

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As long as this is the crazy thread, here's an an out-of-the-box way to trade Ellsbury for about $11M a year in salary relief, while bypassing his no-trade clause-- in a series of Benny Hill style trades involving the Yankees, Tigers, Marlins, and Mets.

It's a bit complicated, so stick with me here, and follow the dollars around...

• Yankees send Jacoby Ellsbury and Clint Frazier to Tigers for Michael Fulmer.
• Tigers send Ellsbury + 24M to Marlins for Martin Prado, Edison Volquez, Christian Yellich
• Marlins trade Wei Yin Chen & Ellsbury + 34M to Mets for Matt Harvey
• Marlins trade Harvey to Tigers for Ian Kinsler
• Marlins trade Kinsler to Mets for PTBNL
• Mets send Ellsbury + 44M to Yankees for Tyler Wade, Jonathan Holder, and Domingo German.

To recap:

-Yankees get Fulmer, and about 11M/yr salary relief in exchange for Frazier, German, Holder, and Wade.
-Marlins shed the contracts of Volquez (9M), Prado (28M), Chen (42M) for Yellich and $10M.
-Tigers get Prado, Volquez, Frazier, Yellich, and Harvey, for Fulmer, Kinzler, and 24M.
-Mets get Kinsler, Chen, German, Holder, and Wade in exchange for Matt Harvey, a PTBNL, and $10M.

Unfortunately, because the Mets don't want to pay the high price for a reclamation project like Chen, it probably won't happen.
 

jon abbey

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I admire the effort there, but Fulmer would take much more than Frazier. I think Frazier/Adams/Estrada maybe gets you close.

Also, as a general note, the Mets refuse to deal with the Yankees, they turned down better offers from the Yankees for Duda and Bruce last summer before moving them elsewhere for less.
 

Lorca's Tribble

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I admire the effort there, but Fulmer would take much more than Frazier. I think Frazier/Adams/Estrada maybe gets you close.

Also, as a general note, the Mets refuse to deal with the Yankees, they turned down better offers from the Yankees for Duda and Bruce last summer before moving them elsewhere for less.
Well the Yankees are trading more than Frazier in my circus proposal, and the Tigers are getting more as well: the Yanks would also give up Domingo German, Jonathan Holder, and Tyler Wade, while the Tigers wind up with Frazier, Yellich, Prado, Volquez, and Matt Harvey. It's a win/win!

Yeah, that's why it won't happen
This is the crazy thread, let me have some fun with unrealistic and impossible ideas. :)
 
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