Let's get crazy (risky acquisitions and offseason plans)

Snodgrass'Muff

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Boras has a well-established reputation of being a more high-stakes negotiator than most agents. He will play chicken with the market rather than making a priority of getting a pretty good deal early on. It's a strategy that has failed on more than one occasion (e.g. Stephen Drew 2014), but when it works, it works big.
There are also examples of players who knew what they wanted, told him to go get it specifically, and it not taking all winter. That list is small, though, and I have no reason to believe J.D. Martinez wants Boston over any other destination. So I'm guessing that unless Dombrowski decides that Martinez is a must have and meets the $200M price tag to lock it up quickly, he'll be a late December signing. And I don't think the Red Sox can wait that long to land a bat because of the risk that they don't win the bidding and end up with nothing.
 

RedOctober3829

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PapaSox

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All we have to tell Stanton is he will be the next Ortiz. That should want him to either embrace Boston or run for SF.
 

chawson

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There are also examples of players who knew what they wanted, told him to go get it specifically, and it not taking all winter. That list is small, though, and I have no reason to believe J.D. Martinez wants Boston over any other destination. So I'm guessing that unless Dombrowski decides that Martinez is a must have and meets the $200M price tag to lock it up quickly, he'll be a late December signing. And I don't think the Red Sox can wait that long to land a bat because of the risk that they don't win the bidding and end up with nothing.
For this reason I like the idea of trading for a 1B/DH now if possible. That market is going to wait for Hosmer (who we don’t want) and JDM (who we do).

If DD swings a hypothetical trade for, say, Josh Bell, we have a fallback plan of Hanley and Bell at 1B and DH. If he doesn’t get JDM, that keeps us from having to rely on Duda or Morrison as this winter’s major addition to the offense. If he does, he can cut Hanley and get out of the $22M year in 2019, which is probably preferable anyway.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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For this reason I like the idea of trading for a 1B/DH now if possible. That market is going to wait for Hosmer (who we don’t want) and JDM (who we do).

If DD swings a hypothetical trade for, say, Josh Bell, we have a fallback plan of Hanley and Bell at 1B and DH. If he doesn’t get JDM, that works. If he does, he can cut Hanley and get out of the $22M year in 2019, which is probably preferable anyway.
Has anyone actually found language in the CBA that clarifies whether cutting him would trigger his option or not? I thought the prevailing thought was that it would?
 

DeadlySplitter

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if we were able to get Stanton for very little on players in exchange for the whole contract, could we use the DH as a shuffle half-day off between Hanley, Stanton and the BBB outfielders?
 

MikeM

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The trade offers are starting to roll in for National League MVP Giancarlo Stanton.

The San Francisco Giants have made a proposal to the Miami Marlins for Stanton, and the Marlins expect to receive or have received bids from the St. Louis Cardinals and Boston Red Sox as well, according to major league sources.

https://theathletic.com/159001/2017/11/17/rosenthal-giants-make-trade-proposal-for-giancarlo-stanton-other-teams-also-in-the-mix/
This is what got me asking in another thread on what exactly a Stanton to the Giants trade would even look like. Taking a huge contract back as suggested in that article basically defeats some of the purpose, and outside that all I've see anybody suggest so far is a strictly kept on the surface offer of "prospects".

Hypothetically speaking, let's assume for a second that behind the hot commodity hype train nobody out there other then SF and the Sox would actually be willing to pick up that contract in full (which ends up being the most prioritized sell from the Marlins' POV). Does SF possess the type of pieces capable of reasonably trumping any of the various types of offers we could make in that scenario, and which includes a possibility that they just turn around a re-flip anything we give them?
 

nvalvo

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This is what got me asking in another thread on what exactly a Stanton to the Giants trade would even look like. Taking a huge contract back as suggested in that article basically defeats some of the purpose, and outside that all I've see anybody suggest so far is a strictly kept on the surface offer of "prospects".

Hypothetically speaking, let's assume for a second that behind the hot commodity hype train nobody out there other then SF and the Sox would actually be willing to pick up that contract in full (which ends up being the most prioritized sell from the Marlins' POV). Does SF possess the type of pieces capable of reasonably trumping any of the various types of offers we could make in that scenario, and which includes a possibility that they just turn around a re-flip anything we give them?
If I'm Miami, I want Heliot Ramos as a centerpiece and for SF to pick up the whole tab. He's a long shot like every 17 y/o prospect, but he's the only player in either system with that kind of ceiling, now that Flores passed away.
 

MikeM

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Like you said though, Ramos is a long shot who at best is a couple years away from giving you a visible return on the reigning NL MVP.

That just strikes me as being too risky overall without some notable meat behind it, and not the type of headliner the Marlins can rationally run with there.
 

PapaSox

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Whatever deal is put together I feel Miami and Jeter will want pitching. They have Gordon, Ozuna, Yelich, Bour & Realmuto to handle positional needs and offense. Other than Urena and Ramos their staff is extremely weak. They'll need a pitcher who they can put along side Urena and arms to stabilize their pen. Even with a team taking on all of Stanton's salary Jeter is going to want arms back to justify the sale of Stanton. He needs to show the fan's in Miami that he is building the team to compete and to do it in the near future. Miami is not going into full rebuild. They're trying to unload salary and remain a viable team in the NL East.
 

sean1562

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Yes, but trading away Stanton and Gordon, their most expensive players, is not gong to make them a "viable team in the NL East", no matter how they do it. They were a bad team last year, 20 games behind the 1st place Nats and 10 game out of the 2nd WC. Trading the reigning NL MVP will inevitably be a step backward, unless we trade them Chris Sale, then it is basically a wash. Trading Stanton is punting on next season and at least the season after that.

edit: The Marlins offense is good, but nothing special without Stanton. For all the talk of "needing power" to be successful in the "modern league", the Marlins hit 194 HRs last year, below league average. Remove Stanton's total and they are down to 135 HRs, second worst in the league. Who would they replace Stanton with?

2nd edit: Jose Fernandez's death really altered the way this Marlins organization can think of their team moving forward. With him, sure, maybe a pitcher or two away from being a WC team. As currently constructed, this team isnt going anywhere.
 
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PapaSox

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Actually, I'd keep Gordon. Prado is the guy they want to trade. He does not have much value presently but was far more viable in 2016. Miami will likely need to eat about 1/2 his salary to get any takers and to receive anything back. Cutting $25 million from Stanton and $6-$7 million from Prado would get Miami down around where Jeter would like to see the salary. However, after adding in salaries from the players they get back would likely save the Marlins $20 - $22 million.

Miami may be able to get someone to take Ziegler and Tazawa but again it will likely not be at full value ($16 million for the two of them). Getting another $8 - $10 off the payroll for them would be about what is needed. The real problem is that they have Wei-Yin Chen's $18 million and Edinson Volquez's $13 million on the books and they'll be lucky to get Volquez back this season - $31 million in dead salary.

If Miami trades much more away then yes viability will not be at all obtainable. Remember they won only 77 games yet were 2nd in the NL East.

To make the trades worthwhile Miami needs to get their hands on one good rotation arm and two in the pen. A rotation arm that can give them 16 wins and pen arms to stabilize the back-end. All they need for next season is about 81 - 82 wins for Jeter to show movement forward.

The fans will continue to stay away if Jeter and company dump the current team and once again make the fans wait through another 3 - 4 years of rebuilding.
 

sean1562

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Without Stanton, they are a 70 win team. Even if what they get back is worth 3 wins, 73 wins is not a team that is close to being in the running for a playoff spot. 2nd in the NL East means nothing, the Nats are so much better than any of the others the Marlins have no shot at competing with them if they trade Stanton. Trying to get MLB ready talent for anybody they trade is a bit silly, in my opinion. They are years away from contending and realistically wont ever be contenders with their current "core". They have three great OFs, a promising young Catcher, and not much else.

I highly doubt the Marlins will come anywhere close to 81-82 wins next season if they trade Stanton. The NL East is the Nats to lose over the next few seasons(even if they do lose Harper next offseason) and nothing the Marlins receive in return for Stanton will change that.
 

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To make the trades worthwhile Miami needs to get their hands on one good rotation arm and two in the pen. A rotation arm that can give them 16 wins and pen arms to stabilize the back-end. All they need for next season is about 81 - 82 wins for Jeter to show movement forward.
Do you know how many pitchers in the NL had 16+ wins last season? Five.
Finding such a a pitcher and solidifying this pitching staff is no small task. And, without Stanton, they sure as hell aren't winning 80+ games next season.
 

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Do you know how many pitchers in the NL had 16+ wins last season? Five.
Finding such a a pitcher and solidifying this pitching staff is no small task. And, without Stanton, they sure as hell aren't winning 80+ games next season.
Especially if they trade their entire outfield for Aaron Judge and the shell of Jacoby Ellsbury!
 

MikeM

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Regardless of whether or not you believe Miami will still be looking to field a roster *they* feel has a chance to be decent, the possibility still remains (imo) that it simply might end up being more feasible for them to trade Stanton for a package that includes some much less complicated re-flip pieces. Which totals up better as a whole after-the-fact, in terms of where they want to be post-Stanton, then any direct and strictly keeper deal on the table will.
 

sackamano

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Do you know how many pitchers in the NL had 16+ wins last season? Five.
Finding such a a pitcher and solidifying this pitching staff is no small task. And, without Stanton, they sure as hell aren't winning 80+ games next season.
Actually, two 8-game winners would be almost the same thing, and would show movement forward.

Also Papa, last I saw Urena was a pretty bad SP, and AJ Ramos was a Met, not a Marlin.
 

PapaSox

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Actually, two 8-game winners would be almost the same thing, and would show movement forward.

Also Papa, last I saw Urena was a pretty bad SP, and AJ Ramos was a Met, not a Marlin.
Urena went 14-7 which I think may be a tad on the good side. You are correct - Ramos.did go to the Mets. That would make the relief arms all that more important.

Back to the 16 game winner ... I was think the Sox will need to coffee up Pomeranz who I think would be a 16 game winner in the NL. They may only have him for a season unless they can resign him. He would give them their top-of-the-rotation guy. There is the option of flipping him as MikeM indicated.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Despite career bests in ERA, WHIP, IP and a bunch of other categories, Urena posted a FIP of 5.20 and an xFIP of 5.29, worst of his short career. It's debatable if he's as good as his simple numbers suggest.

All early projections have him being decidedly average or slightly below (ERA in the 4.40-4.90 range over similar innings to 2017...170). Maybe he's not bad, but he's not exactly expected to be good either.
 

grimshaw

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Not that it's anything the Marlins would bite on, but If that's in the ballpark, it's not all that high. Gordon is superior to Panik and Beede struggled this year will be 25 in May. Makes sense for the Marlins since Panik is a lot cheaper. Curious if any salary would be kicked into that proposal.
 
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soxhop411

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Not that it's anything the Marlins would bite on, but If that's in the ballpark, it's not all that high. Gordon is superior to Panik and Beede struggled this year will be 25 in May. Makes sense for the Marlins since Panik is a lot cheaper. Curious if any salary would be kicked into that proposal.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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That package is interesting. I'm trying to build a comparable Red Sox offer. If they're willing to take an Arb 1 player back in Panik, JBJ isn't a terribly different chip. He's been worth 9.5 fWAR over the last three years to Panik's 8.1. JBJ is A2, but is a super 2 so three years of Arb in front of him like Panik. He may be a little more expensive because of that.

But if those pieces are close enough to move forward with the comp (which is debatable), then Chavis is a good comp for Chris Shaw, so what's the Beede equivalent? Mike Shawaryn maybe? He's much lower on the Red Sox top 10 (9) than Beede is on the Giant's list (3) from mid-season. Beede has better stuff, but Shawaryn has been far more consistent. Both are upper levels and probably have middle of the rotation ceilings at this point.

Maybe the slightly higher chance of reaching that upside for Beede means the Sox throw in a lower levels guy to even it out?

It's a weird package from the Giants, so I'm not sure we'll find a great comp from the Red Sox.
 

grimshaw

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That package is interesting. I'm trying to build a comparable Red Sox offer. If they're willing to take an Arb 1 player back in Panik, JBJ isn't a terribly different chip. He's been worth 9.5 fWAR over the last three years to Panik's 8.1. JBJ is A2, but is a super 2 so three years of Arb in front of him like Panik. He may be a little more expensive because of that.

But if those pieces are close enough to move forward with the comp (which is debatable), then Chavis is a good comp for Chris Shaw, so what's the Beede equivalent? Mike Shawaryn maybe? He's much lower on the Red Sox top 10 (9) than Beede is on the Giant's list (3) from mid-season. Beede has better stuff, but Shawaryn has been far more consistent. Both are upper levels and probably have middle of the rotation ceilings at this point.

Maybe the slightly higher chance of reaching that upside for Beede means the Sox throw in a lower levels guy to even it out?

It's a weird package from the Giants, so I'm not sure we'll find a great comp from the Red Sox.
I think you are overvaluing Shaw for reasons I mentioned earlier (inflated numbers in the PCL and limited defensive ability). Fangraphs rates him as a 40 for future value which is basically a C prospect. Sam Travis is listed as a 45 and I think at least sniffed the top 100 at one point but is not close to that now. Chavis is also ahead of Shaw with the the two year age factor as well as potential 2b flexibility.

Shaw is JAG. He tore up AA in his second season and then put up a wRC of 116 with a 30% k rate in AAA which is fine but not Chavis.
 
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Snodgrass'Muff

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I think you are overvaluing Shaw for reasons I mentioned earlier (inflated numbers in the PCL and limited defensive ability). Fangraphs rates him as a 40 for future value which is basically a C prospect. Sam Travis is listed as a 45 and I think at least sniffed the top 100 at one point but is not close to that now. Chavis is way ahead of Shaw with the age and performance factor as well as potential 2b flexibility.

Shaw is JAG. He tore up AA in his second season and then put up a wRC of 116 with a 30% k rate in AAA which is fine but not Chavis.
Well, BA had him one spot ahead of Groome in the midseason top 100 at 86. Chavis was 96. I think people drastically overrate Chavis around here. His offensive ceiling is limited because of his profile. I think he maxes out as a Lucas Duda type at the plate. If he can play a decent second base, that helps, but until he demonstrates an ability to do so, that isn't part of his value.

So, while you make some fair points, I wouldn't count on Chavis being worth more than Shaw in negotiations this winter.
 

grimshaw

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So, while you make some fair points, I wouldn't count on Chavis being worth more than Shaw in negotiations this winter.
I would move Chavis in a deal including Stanton if he were the headliner. Realistically, I don't think he's worth much as one so don't think it's worth moving him if he was the second piece since the Sox lack power bats in the system. I just think he is objectively better than Shaw. They both made big strides this year and Shaw has done it longer but I think that's all he has in his favor.

The Sox don't need Gordon back either. So unless the Marlins are just trying to give him away, and the Sox just want Stanton, then the price may be lower than the Giants.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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I would move Chavis in a deal including Stanton if he were the headliner. Realistically, I don't think he's worth much as one so don't think it's worth moving him if he was the second piece since the Sox lack power bats in the system. I just think he is objectively better than Shaw. They both made big strides this year and Shaw has done it longer but I think that's all he has in his favor.

The Sox don't need Gordon back either. So unless the Marlins are just trying to give him away, and the Sox just want Stanton, then the price may be lower than the Giants.
I figured Gordon's inclusion was more about dumping payroll than a significant need or desire on the part of the Giants. Panik isn't that special of a player overall. He's a bit better than league average and he's relatively cheap (like JBJ), but I doubt the Marlins are pining for him. But if the Giants are taking on Gordon, the Marlins will need a starting second baseman and Panik may close the gap in value between the two sides as Shaw and Beede don't qualify as centerpiece types, as you pointed out.

Neither does Chavis, though. He's just not a centerpiece kind of chip. The reason I think this rumor is interesting is because it indicates that the Marlins have shifted toward maybe accepting a deal that's more of a salary dump than a significant influx of high level prospect capital. If that's actually what is happening, then I misread the market for Stanton, which is a good thing for the Red Sox (assuming they're legitimately interested and aren't just doing their due diligence).
 

grimshaw

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If the Giants insisted on dumping more payroll and the Sox took back some of Prado's contract that may make more sense. Though I don't know if he could still do 2b and that's an awful lot of extra payroll.

Meh -probably better to just beat the Giants prospects offer which is doable.

The Sox don't really have an Alcantara piece that the Cards are including unless they moved Groome or had a better overall package of lesser arms.
 
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Green Monster

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I find it interesting how the different offers stack up and what a Sox offer would need to look like to compare, however in the end does it matter if Stanton will not approve a trade to Boston?
 

chawson

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It's too bad Wei-Yin Chen fell apart. If he were still the same underrated 2.5-win pitcher who handled the AL East from 2012-15, he'd be a more interesting big contract to take back than Gordon or Prado.
 

RedOctober3829

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If the Giants insisted on dumping more payroll and the Sox took back some of Prado's contract that may make more sense. Though I don't know if he could still do 2b and that's an awful lot of extra payroll.

Meh -probably better to just beat the Giants prospects offer which is doable.

The Sox don't really have an Alcantara piece that the Cards are including unless they moved Groome or had a better overall package of lesser arms.
If they really wanted to(which God willing they won't do) the Sox have the trump card in any package which is Rafael Devers. Pitching or not, he'd be the best prospect the Marlins could get from the 3 teams talked about.
 

MikeM

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That package is interesting. I'm trying to build a comparable Red Sox offer. If they're willing to take an Arb 1 player back in Panik, JBJ isn't a terribly different chip. He's been worth 9.5 fWAR over the last three years to Panik's 8.1. JBJ is A2, but is a super 2 so three years of Arb in front of him like Panik. He may be a little more expensive because of that.

But if those pieces are close enough to move forward with the comp (which is debatable), then Chavis is a good comp for Chris Shaw, so what's the Beede equivalent? Mike Shawaryn maybe? He's much lower on the Red Sox top 10 (9) than Beede is on the Giant's list (3) from mid-season. Beede has better stuff, but Shawaryn has been far more consistent. Both are upper levels and probably have middle of the rotation ceilings at this point.

Maybe the slightly higher chance of reaching that upside for Beede means the Sox throw in a lower levels guy to even it out?

It's a weird package from the Giants, so I'm not sure we'll find a great comp from the Red Sox.
Another non "why even try in 2018 post-Stanton" way to view this is that the Marlins may be seeing the above more as immediate MLB roster fits at 2B/SP/OF. Or if viewing Shaw as a 1B, which then allows them to turn around and sell high on Bour for further talent/salary relief.

I'm guessing the interesting inclusion of Gordon there also would have just as much to do with SF still needing to sell Stanton that he wouldn't be waiving his no-trade to help turn a 64 win team around by himself. Although I have my doubts SF gets away with not including the Ramos kicker there to win out, and they'd probably still have to do more adding on top of that to make a more convincing contender case (while keeping in mind that Stanton + Gordon alone is already pushing their payroll way over the LT).
 
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Cesar Crespo

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Neither does Chavis, though. He's just not a centerpiece kind of chip. .
Nope, but out of everyone named, Chavis is the most likely to become that kind of chip. His dreadful 2016 was partly injury related. Fully healthy, Chavis made a lot of improvements this year and if he can continue to build on his 2017 campaign, he'll be rising up some lists. He's hard to rate as a prospect because this is his first year doing anything and prior to this season, his plate discipline was atrocious. People are either bullish or bearish with very little in between.

I think Chavis has far more value to the Redsox than he does in a trade, even if he busts. I doubt he would bring a player back that would improve the current club that much. Outside of a deal that is more about salary than talent, anyway.
 
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chawson

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Which non-Boston Stanton trade would be best for the Sox?

I'd prefer San Francisco gets him over the Cardinals, Dodgers or Phillies. The Giants seem like the most serious suitors for JDM of that group, and while they'd still likely be in the market for another outfielder, it'd be a less expensive, strong defender type like Cain, Dyson, or Bradley, leaving us and Arizona as JDM's primary (declared) suitors. Plus, unless Shaw's included in their package to Miami, they could be inclined to move payroll like Belt if they're taking on $35M in Stanton and Gordon.

If I'm DDski and I know Stanton isn't interested in Boston, I'm wondering what finesse trades I can do to help the Giants get him.
 

CurtieLeskanic

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I continue to see Stanton as a moot point because I think he'll be aiming for the west coast with his NTC. Plus, I can't think of a package I'd be comfortable parting with for a player who is known to have such a steep aging curve.

It goes against most analytical thinking, but I've become more and more enamored with Hosmer being our high risk acquisition. Age, a championship/leadership pedigree, and still untapped potential is in his favor more than it is with JD.

We made a culture change hire with AC. I think Hosmer fits into that culture change and can be great for the clubhouse and the infield. I also see the market for Hosmer simmering down. Dave Cameron has him down for 6/126. I think that gets brought down to 5/100.

Hosmer is the best way to keep the core of our team. A JD signing would likely mark the end of JBJ's time here (bad idea) and a Stanton trade may do the same.

I go Hosmer, warts/concerns and all.
 

RedOctober3829

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I continue to see Stanton as a moot point because I think he'll be aiming for the west coast with his NTC. Plus, I can't think of a package I'd be comfortable parting with for a player who is known to have such a steep aging curve.

It goes against most analytical thinking, but I've become more and more enamored with Hosmer being our high risk acquisition. Age, a championship/leadership pedigree, and still untapped potential is in his favor more than it is with JD.

We made a culture change hire with AC. I think Hosmer fits into that culture change and can be great for the clubhouse and the infield. I also see the market for Hosmer simmering down. Dave Cameron has him down for 6/126. I think that gets brought down to 5/100.

Hosmer is the best way to keep the core of our team. A JD signing would likely mark the end of JBJ's time here (bad idea) and a Stanton trade may do the same.

I go Hosmer, warts/concerns and all.
Why does JD Martinez necessarily end JBJ's time? You can play JD at DH and Hanley at 1B. When Hanley needs to DH, you can put Martinez in the OF and give one of the OF's a day off.
 

chawson

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I continue to see Stanton as a moot point because I think he'll be aiming for the west coast with his NTC. Plus, I can't think of a package I'd be comfortable parting with for a player who is known to have such a steep aging curve.

It goes against most analytical thinking, but I've become more and more enamored with Hosmer being our high risk acquisition. Age, a championship/leadership pedigree, and still untapped potential is in his favor more than it is with JD.

We made a culture change hire with AC. I think Hosmer fits into that culture change and can be great for the clubhouse and the infield. I also see the market for Hosmer simmering down. Dave Cameron has him down for 6/126. I think that gets brought down to 5/100.

Hosmer is the best way to keep the core of our team. A JD signing would likely mark the end of JBJ's time here (bad idea) and a Stanton trade may do the same.

I go Hosmer, warts/concerns and all.
Even putting aside his troubling stats, I'm not sure leadership works this way. The Royals are a small-market homegrown team that more or less sustained its core the entire time he played there. Hosmer came up in 2012 (and promptly put up a -1.7 WAR) for a team that included Gordon, Escobar, Cain, Moustakas, Perez, Duffy, and Herrera — pretty much KC's core ever since. I'm sure he learned a lot, but it's no certainty that he can be simply plugged into a leadership role on a Boston team with veterans and young players with complex personalities like Pedroia, Betts, Sale, Price, Hanley, Devers, etc. I don't think group interdynamics work that way.

Given the necessity for Alex Cora to set a new tone and narrative to the team, signing Hosmer for his "championship/leadership pedigree" might even be counterproductive. The fact that he hits like Casey Kotchman makes the decision even simpler.
 
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MikeM

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Plus, unless Shaw's included in their package to Miami, they could be inclined to move payroll like Belt if they're taking on $35M in Stanton and Gordon.
The problem with this is you then have the Giants taking a step backwards by trading Belt after-the-fact, which isn't helping sell Stanton to waive the no-trade or even seeing 1B back filled by a league min salary of Shaw (who's already Miami bound) at that point. So they'd still be left with the need to sign/acquire another notable 1B bat on top of a guy like Cain to keep pushing the needle forward.

I do agree that SF is the most desirable Stanton destination if we were to have a genuine and winning bid type interest in JDM though.
 

CurtieLeskanic

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Why does JD Martinez necessarily end JBJ's time? You can play JD at DH and Hanley at 1B. When Hanley needs to DH, you can put Martinez in the OF and give one of the OF's a day off.
That's probably possible, but it creates a helluva burden on the salary cap for a guy that will DH/LF now and will just DH on the back half of whatever 5 year deal he gets. Plus the JD signing still leaves a hole at first, and I'm not entirely comfortable going into the season with Hanley/Travis (but would welcome a Duda/Morrison signing too if we went with JD.
 

chawson

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The problem with this is you then have the Giants taking a step backwards by trading Belt after-the-fact, which isn't helping sell Stanton to waive the no-trade or even seeing 1B back filled by a league min salary of Shaw (who's already Miami bound) at that point. So they'd still be left with the need to sign/acquire another notable 1B bat on top of a guy like Cain to keep pushing the needle forward.

I do agree that SF is the most desirable Stanton destination if we were to have a genuine and winning bid type interest in JDM though.
The Giants have exceeded the luxury tax threshold two consecutive years, so would be assessed a 50% tax for anything above it in 2018. Adding $35.5M for them without shedding additional payroll would essentially be adding something like $45M, and they'd still need another outfielder (or two), plus whatever else. And unless they're fine with paying that penalty, it would also virtually guarantee that they'd have to sit out the big fish FA pool next year.
 
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RedOctober3829

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Jul 19, 2005
55,298
deep inside Guido territory
That's probably possible, but it creates a helluva burden on the salary cap for a guy that will DH/LF now and will just DH on the back half of whatever 5 year deal he gets. Plus the JD signing still leaves a hole at first, and I'm not entirely comfortable going into the season with Hanley/Travis (but would welcome a Duda/Morrison signing too if we went with JD.
Blake Swihart is a candidate to back up 1B as well provided he is healthy.
 

MikeM

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May 27, 2010
3,049
Florida
The Giants have exceeded the luxury tax threshold two consecutive years, so would be assessed a 50% tax for anything above it in 2018. Adding $35.5M for them without shedding additional payroll would essentially be adding $45M, and they'd still need another outfielder (or two), plus whatever else. And unless they're fine with paying that penalty, it would also virtually guarantee that they'd have to sit out the big fish FA pool next year.
Right, which all still plays into the surrounding *if* they can put a contender together factor that's more or less getting getting put on the back burner in most of this early speculation.

I'm personally guessing that Stanton's own pre-vision of how that all goes down, and what SF is realistically prepared to do/spend as a whole, doesn't end up being the winning match there. At which point SF turns their full attention to JDM, who will be more then happy to take the $$$ without any surrounding conditions other then he gets an early opt out.

I also think that the Yankees, if they could indeed maneuver a Stanton addition under this year's LT cap, would ultimately jump in with the winning offer before they ever let the above fall out lead to us getting him. So I'm not predicting the happily ever after for the Sox here happening either way.