2017 Yankees Offseason Discussion

Murderer's Crow

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What a season! Didn't end as good as it could have but I think we all wish spring training was next week already. The roster is exciting and as talented as we've had in maybe 30 years.

Before the player roster has any changes, Cashman's & Girardi's fate will have to be decided. There is no question Cashman will be back and a very high probability Joe will be back as well.

As for the roster, below are some of the important names going into the offseason. All are either free agents, trade candidates, or taking up space that could be better utilized going into 2018.

Starting Pitching
CC Sabathia - Free agent
Tanaka - 3/$67M remaining w/ Opt out decision due 3 days after the end of the World Series

Bullpen
Betances - Uncertain future, potential trade candidate, bad relationship with org

Offense
Holliday - Free Agent
Todd Frazier - Free Agent
Headley - 1 Year remaining
Ellsbury - 3 Years remaining (~$64M + team option)
Castro - 2 Years (~$22M)
Romine

Potential Holes to Fill

DH
Infield depth behind 1b and 3b
Starting Pitchers behind (or in front of) Severino, Gray, Montgomery

Potential Candidates (Goal to stay under $197M luxury tax)

Otani - Most attractive lottery ticket and potentially the cheapest impact. Unique player with offense and pitching potential. The Yankees have traded for extra international signing dollars and it seems like they are the favorite to land him as his value is significantly diminished if he can't DH.

Madison Bumgarner - Giants in rebuilding mode, Yankees need to trade some prospects because of roster crunch issues

Yu Darvish - Unlikely, unless Tanaka opts out and becomes too expensive

JD Martinez - Also unlikely and will cost too much money unless we are able to ship Ellsbury out

Todd Frazier - Would love to return but will likely require too much length and turn into what Headley currently is.

Internal - Chance Adams, Gleybar Torres, Clint Frazier - All likely to have full-time jobs by July-September

Discuss!
 

Wingack

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I want Otani, that is the A1 target as far as I am concerned. He is 23 and won't cost that much financially, get.

Other than that, I just want them to work on some of the depth issues.

Would love to get rid of Ellsbury, but don't want to trade him for another albatross.
 

Murderer's Crow

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I want Otani, that is the A1 target as far as I am concerned. He is 23 and won't cost that much financially, get.

Other than that, I just want them to work on some of the depth issues.

Would love to get rid of Ellsbury, but don't want to trade him for another albatross.
Otani is absolutely the priority and also exactly the type of headline grabbing move that New York typically loves to make except it won't cost anything that sacrifices the long-term plans.

I'm also not entirely sure that Cashman will feel pressure to bring CC back. I feel that whatever he brings to the table can be matched or exceeded by Montgomery. Of course he is a great clubhouse guy and the wise man of our staff but I'm not sure why we need that. That's what pitching coaches are for.
 

JimD

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Any thoughts on Girardi's situation? I can see Joe using this season's unexpected success as leverage in negotiations, but who knows how that would be taken by the Steinbrenners.

I know Cashman's contract is also up but I cannot imagine him walking away now.
 

jon abbey

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Otani is a priority for 30 teams, everyone wants him and no one has any idea where he’ll end up or even that he’s definitely coming.

I have a lot to say in this thread, no surprise, more later.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Any thoughts on Girardi's situation? I can see Joe using this season's unexpected success as leverage in negotiations, but who knows how that would be taken by the Steinbrenners.

I know Cashman's contract is also up but I cannot imagine him walking away now.
He's coming off a 4/$16m agreement. I don't know what other team would give him similar money and I'm guessing that's what he's going to get again, although I'm out of touch w/ current salaries for managers.

Regarding what Yankee fans think of Girardi. I'd say it's more negative than positive after this postseason. A lot of NY fans hate binder managers and dislike Joe's quick hook. Personally, I think he's an incredible player manager and an extremely logical thinker on the field. That said, he makes the occasional head scratcher that really can't be easily explained. Game 7 is an extreme example of his flaws.
 

jon abbey

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OK, crow's rundown is pretty good, but what I'd like to do is dig in position by position, as I've given this a lot of thought. I will list guys who are or should be on the 40 man before next month's rule 5 draft, plus anyone else who may be a factor in the first half of next year (Chance Adams).

C: Gary Sanchez, Austin Romine, Kyle Higashioka.

The catching situation behind Sanchez is I think NY's biggest positional weakness currently, Higashioka failed to back up his breakout 2016 in the minors and the Padres somewhat surprisingly took Luis Torrens in the rule 5 and kept him all year even though he's like 3-4 years away from being an actual big leaguer. Upgrading Romine and maybe upgrading the AAA catching situation is I think one of NY's biggest priorities, Joel Sherman suggested Alex Avila in an article earlier today.

1B: Greg Bird, Tyler Austin, Garrett Cooper.

Maybe the best development for NY from Sept 1 on was Bird's return from injury, showing again that he is an impact bat (and a surprisingly competent defender) when healthy. If he could play a full season next year, that would be a huge plus for NY. Austin and Cooper have both crushed in AAA, one will probably be left unprotected in the rule 5 draft. Mike Ford also has great minor league numbers but NY doesn't seem to take him seriously as an option and will likely leave him unprotected.

2B: Starlin Castro, Gleyber Torres, Tyler Wade, Ronald Torreyes, Thairo Estrada.

Castro's time as a Yankee is running out, I think Torres will take his spot by the ASB. I think Cashman will move him this winter if he can, Wade/Torreyes can cover the position if Torres needs some time to get ready.

SS: Didi Gregorius, Gleyber Torres, Tyler Wade, Ronald Torreyes.

Didi has solidified his position in NY to the point where he may get an extension once NY is safely under the luxury tax. Same backups as for 2B.

3B: Chase Headley, Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres, Ronald Torreyes.

Headley is under contract for one more year, and while I think Cashman would love to move him and then sign Todd Frazier to a one year deal, neither part of that seems especially likely. So it's Headley's job until Andujar or Torres bump him, at which point he can be the 3B/1B backup.

OF: Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clint Frazier, Billy McKinney, Jake Cave.

First three are the starters, R to L, and Frazier ideally will get 4-5 games a week as 4th OF/occasional DH. Ellsbury needs to be moved even if it means swallowing the bulk of the money, NY needs the roster spot. McKinney and Cave both look potentially helpful, NY has McKinney playing a bit of 1B in Arizona now also.

DH:

NY doesn't have a dedicated DH like Holliday this past season, but Sanchez, Clint Frazier and Miguel Andujar can cover it, even though all three are RHHs.

SP: Luis Severino, Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, Domingo German, Luis Cessa, Bryan Mitchell, Ronald Herrera, Domingo Acevedo, Albert Abreu. .

Tanaka needs to inform NY whether he is opting out by three days after the World Series, and then NY can make decisions from there. I think CC will be back on a one year deal either way, and if NY somehow re-signed CC and Tanaka and landed Otani and all six guys were healthy, Montgomery does have minor league options, unfair as that would be to him. If they only got CC of those three, I think they'd try to fill the 5th spot internally again, with Domingo German, Chance Adams, Domingo Acevedo, Justus Sheffield and Dillon Tate all ending the year in AA or AAA, all with very good results last year. Mitchell and Cessa I don't expect to be around very long as the guys behind them seem to have pretty much caught up.

RP: Aroldis Chapman, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Chad Green, Dellin Betances, Adam Warren, Ben Heller, Jonathan Holder, Giovanny Gallegos, Chasen Shreve, Caleb Smith.

The first six are six of the seven bullpen spots, which is why Cashman will likely dangle Betances and see what they can get for him. Heller seems very ready to step in when needed, but by the time he got into a groove this year, Kahnle and Robertson had already arrived, so he never really got another shot.
 

Wingack

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I love the idea of Avila. He hits righties and can play a little first base.

Cashman seems to like the veteran bats. I would like to see them kick the tires on Carlos Gonzalez. He is only 32 and he fell off a cliff this year. Could be a real buy low opportunity.
 

Murderer's Crow

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I don't see this in the cards but you have to also consider that whoever is hired as a backup can potentially take over if Sanchez doesn't make real defensive improvements. I'm not quite sure they would live with him at catcher with his 2017 defense. The dropped balls on outs at the plate was a new thing for him but I recall him dropping 3 or 4 balls at the plate against Houston, 1 of which would have actually saved the game (Altuve).

He's a smart kid, strong arm, and catcher is the worst position in baseball to find a replacement. Crossing my fingers that these are teachable adjustments to be made.
 

jon abbey

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Well, that's one reason you try to get a better backup than Romine, so you can play him more and DH Sanchez some. Also it's not like he's bad across the board defensively, he is very good at stopping the running game and pitch framing, and I think another year working with (most of) the same pitchers should only help.
 

EvilEmpire

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A little less time in the weight room and a little more time working on flexibility and I think Sanchez can be competent blocking balls with more experience with these pitchers. Get that man into some yoga classes.
 

Wingack

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I actually changed my mind, the A1 priority needs to be retaining Cashman.

And in related news, I would love to see what kind of lower level acquisitions Cashman makes, a la Aaron Hicks this offseason. any high level prospects that are now soured on that people can think of?
 

jon abbey

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Honestly all they need externally is a Romine upgrade. Otani would of course be awesome, but outside of that, they have a lot of potential internal answers who they need to give chances to.

I would expect Cashman and Girardi to both have new deals by the end of the WS, agreed that Cashman leaving would be potentially disastrous.
 

Murderer's Crow

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A little less time in the weight room and a little more time working on flexibility and I think Sanchez can be competent blocking balls with more experience with these pitchers. Get that man into some yoga classes.
Is it really flexibility or is it glove work? or both?
I actually changed my mind, the A1 priority needs to be retaining Cashman.

And in related news, I would love to see what kind of lower level acquisitions Cashman makes, a la Aaron Hicks this offseason. any high level prospects that are now soured on that people can think of?
I wouldn't be surprised if Cashman begins to take a leadership role similar to what Epstein has done with the cubs. I'm betting he would like to delegate the day-to-day GM responsibilities at some point since he has such a senior role in the organization.
 

Wingack

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Another interesting note that I would like to Yankees to explore, and it was noted in the Sherman piece that mentioned Avila, is that Green is going into spring training as a starter next year.

Depending on how things shake out with the rest of the rotation and if holes appear, I would like to see them give him a shot again. If it fails, they can always put him back in the pen. But if it does work, we could have another top-end starter on our hands.
 

EvilEmpire

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Is it really flexibility or is it glove work? or both?
Good question. It has looked to me like he has problems getting that big body into the right position to make a play. Getting low enough on balls in the dirt for example. But maybe it is more about glove work. I'd love to see some real analysis on it.
 

terrynever

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Another interesting note that I would like to Yankees to explore, and it was noted in the Sherman piece that mentioned Avila, is that Green is going into spring training as a starter next year.

Depending on how things shake out with the rest of the rotation and if holes appear, I would like to see them give him a shot again. If it fails, they can always put him back in the pen. But if it does work, we could have another top-end starter on our hands.
The Yankees fell short in the ALCS because they couldn't beat a high-end ace, losing twice to Verlander while matching him with their future ace, Severino. They need to develop their own ace, whether it is Severino or even a long shot like Chad Green.
Is Tanaka the real ace? He looked like one in October.
Regardless, the Yankees need to turn over every stone to find an ace.
 

jon abbey

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Another interesting note that I would like to Yankees to explore, and it was noted in the Sherman piece that mentioned Avila, is that Green is going into spring training as a starter next year.

Depending on how things shake out with the rest of the rotation and if holes appear, I would like to see them give him a shot again. If it fails, they can always put him back in the pen. But if it does work, we could have another top-end starter on our hands.
I think this is probably dependent on whether they move Betances or not. If they do, they probably need Green in the pen, and they have a lot more SP prospect candidates than they do seemingly ready relievers.

That being said, Green did make one of the most impressive starts for any Yankee in 2016, a 1-0 win in mid-August against a very good Blue Jays team, 6 2 0 0 0 11:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA201608150.shtml
 

Murderer's Crow

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The Yankees fell short in the ALCS because they couldn't beat a high-end ace, losing twice to Verlander while matching him with their future ace, Severino. They need to develop their own ace, whether it is Severino or even a long shot like Chad Green.
Is Tanaka the real ace? He looked like one in October.
Regardless, the Yankees need to turn over every stone to find an ace.
Judging a team's needs based on a playoff series loss is probably a bad idea. Every team could use an ace but you can't play the "build a super rotation" game because look at how many aces failed this postseason. We really lost because we scored 3 runs in 4 games on the road. In two of those games, they outscored us by two total combined runs against non-aces.

To the spirit of your comment though, the rotation will be full of talent without a clear idea of where anyone will start in the pecking order behind Severino. Severino will also be considered a question mark if he struggles to start the year. We're going to progressively get more uncomfortable with the rotation as the off-season develops and we itch for a premier starter but that's something fans probably will have to deal with going into July. I highly doubt we're going to pull off a trade or acquisition of an ace while trying to stay under $197m.
 

Wingack

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I think this is probably dependent on whether they move Betances or not. If they do, they probably need Green in the pen, and they have a lot more SP prospect candidates than they do seemingly ready relievers.

That being said, Green did make one of the most impressive starts for any Yankee in 2016, a 1-0 win in mid-August against a very good Blue Jays team, 6 2 0 0 0 11:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA201608150.shtml
They do have many starting prospects, but if Green were to be moved to the rotation, perhaps Adams or Acevedo can slot into that role Green had in the pen, and it can be a sort of stepping stone spot to a place in the rotation.
 

jon abbey

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They do have many starting prospects, but if Green were to be moved to the rotation, perhaps Adams or Acevedo can slot into that role Green had in the pen, and it can be a sort of stepping stone spot to a place in the rotation.
There's the innings factor also, although he's getting old enough that it doesn't matter too much.

2014: 130.1
2015: 148.2
2016: 140.1
2017: 99.2

Personally I think Green is in the bullpen for good, just like Betances when he moved there finally, but we'll see. I thought Severino was better off in the bullpen last offseason, and man was I wrong about that.
 

terrynever

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The ideal path is where one of the young arms in the organization makes a big leap next year. That is why I liked and commented on Wingack's post. Yankees have to look internally first, and there are three or four pitchers in the system who project as 1s or 2s down the road.
And there are no elite aces on the market, not even on the failing teams that might trade their ace for prospects, the way the White Sox did with Sale.
 

jon abbey

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First they need to see if they have Tanaka or Otani or both or neither. Darvish is also a FA.
 

Murderer's Crow

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The ideal path is where one of the young arms in the organization makes a big leap next year. That is why I liked and commented on Wingack's post. Yankees have to look internally first, and there are three or four pitchers in the system who project as 1s or 2s down the road.
And there are no elite aces on the market, not even on the failing teams that might trade their ace for prospects, the way the White Sox did with Sale.
Bumgarner.
 

jon abbey

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I think if NY is going to trade for another stud SP, it will be in July after they see what they have, both at the big league level and with prospects. For instance, they never would have traded Blake Rutherford last offseason, but when Florial passed him in terms of development in the first half of the season, that made him potentially expendable.
 

Murderer's Crow

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I think if NY is going to trade for another stud SP, it will be in July after they see what they have, both at the big league level and with prospects. For instance, they never would have traded Blake Rutherford last offseason, but when Florial passed him in terms of development in the first half of the season, that made him potentially expendable.
The only reason I have to doubt this is whether or not Cashman feels pressure to move prospects for roster purposes and who he think might be overvalued/due for regression.
 

jon abbey

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The only reason I have to doubt this is whether or not Cashman feels pressure to move prospects for roster purposes and who he think might be overvalued/due for regression.
I think this is what he's already done over the summer, if you look at the 40 man thread I have here, you'll see that they have room to protect everyone they need to. I do think he'll move guys like Mitchell and Cessa, but not sure if that will be before the rule 5 rosters need to be set or not.
 

jon abbey

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NY has an insane amount of 2B/SS/3B depth piling up at AA/AAA, Thairo Estrada might be a very good trade chip. Nick Solak I think they should keep as a 2B option if Torres ends up at 3B or SS, and Wade still should be slated for the super-Torreyes role, he can play all positions but 1B and C. He was not good in his few chances this year in the bigs, but he was 22 all season (23 next month) and he had a .842 OPS in AAA (386 PAs), I think they'd still like if he took Torreyes' job sooner rather than later.

It's too bad Russell Martin is under contract in the division, he might be great for a couple of years backing up and tutoring Sanchez.
 

Big John

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It seems to me that whether or not Torres is ready, they need to find 400+ at bats for Frazier. They will also need at least one starting pitcher, more likely two.
 

Big John

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I meant Clint. Very quick bat. I was assuming Todd will not be resigned unless Headley is moved.
I would prioritize moving Starlin Castro over an upgrade to the catching. Castro swings at everything and doesn't have enough power to compensate for it.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, Clint and Andujar is why I wouldn't add a veteran DH, let those two and Sanchez split the role.

I'm all for moving Castro ASAP, although as I think I said above, it would mean Torreyes or Wade filling in for a bit until Torres is ready (which also could be beneficial, since if Wade can show he can play at the big league level, they can safely dump Torreyes and give Wade his role at UI once Torres takes over at 2B).
 

Murderer's Crow

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I just hope this isn’t dragged out. I’m at peace with Joe staying and worried if he were to leave because who knows what candidates are out there. That being said, in Cashman I trust.
 

jon abbey

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Cashman is the key one, it would be a disaster if he left.

Girardi I would probably be in favor of keeping, but he would need another three year deal and I'm not sure he would make it through the whole thing. Ten years as Yankee manager takes a toll on you, I was going to nominate Al Pedrique who has managed a lot of these kids in the minors (Scranton manager now), but he is already 57 so he's probably out. Kevin Long?
 

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Apparently GIrardi has moved his family to Florida already this year? I thought I heard that on Francesa and thought how strange that was if he was thinking long-term as a Yankee
 

jon abbey

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His daughter graduated high school in Florida in May but also they live in Purchase (NY), so not sure what the deal is there but it doesn't seem like a recent change.