The 2017/2018 Boston Celtics Regular season thread

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benhogan

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But whoever they get will only be on the team for like 25 games. As we're seeing tonight, this team is paper thin. It'd be nice to shore that up sooner rather than later.

They're not contending for anything anyway. It seems like there's a pretty real risk that they miss the playoffs entirely without some help sooner rather than later however.
To a certain extent, I agree with you, Brad has to pull a coaching svengali here. I'm a huge Brad believer so that's what I'm hoping happens. IMHO the DPE is only relevant if they are a top 4 seed in the EAST at the trade deadline, otherwise, play the ex-Tatum/Brown kids (Ojeleye, Theis, Nader, Yabusele) major minutes and prepare for next season.

538,
post-GH injury, has the Celtics winning 38 games, out of the playoffs. I believe you had similar numbers to them prior to the injury, so I understand your rationale.

I'm not going to speculate what teams or players will be tanking or looking for buyouts after Feb.10 BUT if $8.4MM is sitting on the Celtics lap they could get an excellent player for the last 25-30 games if they are a top 4 SEED.

If they could land Gerald Green for the vet minimum now that would be helpful.
 

bowiac

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Honestly, my point was just that I enjoy watching playoff basketball. I'd like to see the Celtics in the playoffs, and would like to see them win as many games as possible along the way.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Even if they sign someone, they won't replace all of Hayward's minutes. There will be lots of minutes for the lesser rookies.
 

Sprowl

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Green seems like a suitable short-term band-aid. The Celtics find themselves in the improbable position of needing scorers at the wing, and Gerald never saw a shot he didn't like.

Honestly, my point was just that I enjoy watching playoff basketball. I'd like to see the Celtics in the playoffs, and would like to see them win as many games as possible along the way.
They are making the playoffs.
The East is bad, and the Celtics would really have to collapse to do worse than a 8th seed.

Perhaps they should, if it pushes the Nets into the playoffs.
 

The Needler

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The East is bad, and the Celtics would really have to collapse to do worse than a 8th seed.
Not sure what collapse means in this context. The 2017 Celtics are a different team than last year; for starters, they've lost 3 of their top 4 scorers from last year's team. Without Hayward, it's hard to see how the Celtics are much less bad than any of the teams in the 6-12 range in the East.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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They also have one of the best, if not the best, coaches in the East who is going to get them to play their ass off all season long as we've seen the first two games. That alone is enough to get them into the playoffs.
 

The Needler

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They also have one of the best, if not the best, coaches in the East who is going to get them to play their ass off all season long as we've seen the first two games. That alone is enough to get them into the playoffs.
I would guess you'll probably be right, but I wouldn't want to bet my IRA on it. I certainly wouldn't be shocked if they didn't make the playoffs.
 

nighthob

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Not sure what collapse means in this context. The 2017 Celtics are a different team than last year; for starters, they've lost 3 of their top 4 scorers from last year's team. Without Hayward, it's hard to see how the Celtics are much less bad than any of the teams in the 6-12 range in the East.
The Celtics are much less bad than the 6-15 teams in the East. Honestly the eight seed this year probably isn't going to break the 36 game barrier. Now if Irving goes down for the year, you can start making plans for lottery night. Until then they're making the playoffs.
 

Manzivino

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God yes. You don't think the postseason run helped JB?
Do you think the development impact of Smart's 90 minutes of playoff basketball in 2015 was worth the difference between Rozier and Winslow/Turner in the draft? There's a big difference in value between the experience of a deep playoff run and getting abused in the first round, and this team isn't matching up with any healthy Cavs/Raptors/Wizards/Bucks team.

I'm not saying they should intentionally tank, just that making the playoffs this season shouldn't be a priority at this point. They should make it by default barring any other major injuries, but playing Brown/Tatum 30 minutes a game is the mission now even if it leads to the lottery.
 

reggiecleveland

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I am back on the bandwagon.

You think Hayward is the difference between title contention and making the playoffs?

Morris has not played yet. Kyrie has not got it going and they had to be in shock after the injury in game 1.

Tatum looks like a player, his rebounding especially gives me some optimism, and Brown should be a legit starter, and is at lot closer to filling Crowder's shoes on D, already than I expected. These two will play a ton this year, and if Hayward is back at 100% next year that could be a nasty rotation.

To me Banes seems at least as valuable as Olynyk, at least at doing backup center things, and it is nice to have some beef around to play with Horford..

I think Brad figures things out, and they can be middle of the east.
We at least get to see if Kyrie can carry a team.
 

Montana Fan

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Good post Reggie, I'm with you. I imagine Brad is relishing the opportunity to have practices with his "new" roster over the next 3 days as he resets the game plan for the season. Jabari Bird's comments in an ESPN article this morning make clear that they have been winging it since GH went down. He said he was shocked to be called off of the bench and the only coaching up he received was to, guard JJ Redick.

This new Celts team is going to have to adjust their gameplan and I'm looking forward to seeing what adjustments they have made come next Tuesday. Hoping Marcus x 2 are in action!
 

Cesar Crespo

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Is there something about the way the Celtics play that cause guards to get tons of rebounds? Avery was a terrible rebounder until last season and in Detroit looks to be a terrible rebounder again. I'm sure Drummond is some of the reason, but Rozier and Smart put up big rebounding numbers for guards too. I'm guessing it's partly due to the fact the Celtics shoot a lot of threes and don't have an elite rebounding big. Tatum's rebounding has been a surprise though.

Thru 3 games, I think I'm most impressed by Jaylen Brown or Terry Rozier. Jaylen is a lot further along in development than I could have hoped for and Rozier has done a little bit of everything the first 3 games. Rozier has done this before just to return back into a pumpkin though. I think we've all envisioned him in the Jamal Crawford role with better defense at some point or another. Hopefully this is the year.
 

tbrown_01923

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Tatum: Free throw stroke is smooth. Combined that with footwork and I think he is going to be special offensively. The blocks don't mean much in the overall sense (he won't be an intimidator on D) other than he has the capacity to be in the right position. And the rebounding is real.

Brown: The shooting... ugh. He still needs to improve his J significantly. It appears his handle is much improved. I want him on the low block more. Remember the Antoine to Pierce, when Pierce would position between his defender and the goal? Horford can make that pass...
 

Bleedred

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Rozier is an incredible athlete with limited PG skills. There's just something very awkward about his handle...almost stilted/mechanical. Plus, he doesn't see the floor well, at all. That said, he's a great rebounding guard, goes to the hoop reasonably well and his jumper has improved incrementally year over year. Plus, he's a very high energy guy and a strong defender. I like him a lot, and he's definitely a valuable player on this team, it just seems like he doesn't take naturally to the PG position.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Is there something about the way the Celtics play that cause guards to get tons of rebounds? Avery was a terrible rebounder until last season and in Detroit looks to be a terrible rebounder again. I'm sure Drummond is some of the reason, but Rozier and Smart put up big rebounding numbers for guards too. I'm guessing it's partly due to the fact the Celtics shoot a lot of threes and don't have an elite rebounding big. Tatum's rebounding has been a surprise though.

Thru 3 games, I think I'm most impressed by Jaylen Brown or Terry Rozier. Jaylen is a lot further along in development than I could have hoped for and Rozier has done a little bit of everything the first 3 games. Rozier has done this before just to return back into a pumpkin though. I think we've all envisioned him in the Jamal Crawford role with better defense at some point or another. Hopefully this is the year.
Rebounding numbers are also about opportunity as much as anything else so numbers alone can be deceiving. Avery has 4 rebounds over 2 games playing next to Drummond and Tobias Harris has also see his rebound numbers take about a 20% dip since going to Detroit. When you play next to someone like Drummond or DeAndre you should be focusing on other areas of defense more than when you are on the floor next to Horford......when you don't defensive rebounding is more necessary at the expense of these other areas.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Is there something about the way the Celtics play that cause guards to get tons of rebounds? Avery was a terrible rebounder until last season and in Detroit looks to be a terrible rebounder again. I'm sure Drummond is some of the reason, but Rozier and Smart put up big rebounding numbers for guards too. I'm guessing it's partly due to the fact the Celtics shoot a lot of threes and don't have an elite rebounding big.
It's because the Cs switch almost everything so a lot of the times, the guards are closer to the basket than the bigs. Plus the fact that the Cs contest shots pretty well (IIRC, they had a good FG% against last year but were killed on by offensive rebounds) so there are a lot of jumpers clanging off the rims into the middle of the lane, which is where the Cs guards usually are on defense.

Having JT and JB on the wings as opposed to Avery and Jae really helps with the rebounding.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Rozier is an incredible athlete with limited PG skills. There's just something very awkward about his handle...almost stilted/mechanical. Plus, he doesn't see the floor well, at all. That said, he's a great rebounding guard, goes to the hoop reasonably well and his jumper has improved incrementally year over year. Plus, he's a very high energy guy and a strong defender. I like him a lot, and he's definitely a valuable player on this team, it just seems like he doesn't take naturally to the PG position.
Probably because he's not really a PG. To Rozier's credit, he doesn't turn the ball over much at all. His assist rate has taken a jump forward this year so far in preseason and the first 3 games while his TO rate continues to decline.
 

HomeRunBaker

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It's because the Cs switch almost everything so a lot of the times, the guards are closer to the basket than the bigs. Plus the fact that the Cs contest shots pretty well (IIRC, they had a good FG% against last year but were killed on by offensive rebounds) so there are a lot of jumpers clanging off the rims into the middle of the lane, which is where the Cs guards usually are on defense.

Having JT and JB on the wings as opposed to Avery and Jae really helps with the rebounding.
I'm not sure I buy this reasoning. Who are the teams who don't switch on screens today or contest perimeter shots? That is how all NBA defenses function out of necessity to being pick-n-rolled to death.
 

chilidawg

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I'm not sure I buy this reasoning. Who are the teams who don't switch on screens today or contest perimeter shots? That is how all NBA defenses function out of necessity to being pick-n-rolled to death.
Maybe with a guy like Drummond, he doesn't switch as much. Which might explain his great rebounding, but less than stellar defensive rating. I noticed Embid not getting out on switches last night as well.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Probably because he's not really a PG. To Rozier's credit, he doesn't turn the ball over much at all. His assist rate has taken a jump forward this year so far in preseason and the first 3 games while his TO rate continues to decline.
Yes. In some ways, he's the dreaded "combo guard" (ie, too short for SG, but not able to run an offense). But he's got enough athleticism and to play some 2 guard, or he can play with Marcus who can handle the PG responsibilities. Going into the year, maybe he could have faked it as PG with Hayward and Horford who could take on some of the playmaking. (Sort of the way Dee Brown could fake it as a PG before Larry retired).
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yes. In some ways, he's the dreaded "combo guard" (ie, too short for SG, but not able to run an offense). But he's got enough athleticism and to play some 2 guard, or he can play with Marcus who can handle the PG responsibilities. Going into the year, maybe he could have faked it as PG with Hayward and Horford who could take on some of the playmaking. (Sort of the way Dee Brown could fake it as a PG before Larry retired).
Smart didn't look that great his first 2 years as a PG either though. Hopefully Rozier can take that same step forward, because theoretically he would be better at it than Smart because he turns the ball over less and should be the better shooter. He's been good this year, but for his career, Rozier isn't all that much better of a shooter than Smart and wasn't all that good in college either. In a lot of ways, they are kind of similar in that regard. FT wise too.
 

JCizzle

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Not really news, but I'm liking Kyrie more and more everyday. This whole situation was overblown and at least he's owning it.

 

DJnVa

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Do you think the development impact of Smart's 90 minutes of playoff basketball in 2015 was worth the difference between Rozier and Winslow/Turner in the draft? There's a big difference in value between the experience of a deep playoff run and getting abused in the first round, and this team isn't matching up with any healthy Cavs/Raptors/Wizards/Bucks team.
We have different POVs here. That said, after watching the injuries so far, who knows what any of these teams look like in May and June.

But either way, Tatum playing 35+ minutes in a series that only goes 4 or 5 games is still helpful.
 

DJnVa

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Brown: The shooting... ugh. He still needs to improve his J significantly. It appears his handle is much improved. I want him on the low block more. Remember the Antoine to Pierce, when Pierce would position between his defender and the goal? Horford can make that pass...
The fact that Brown, even with his shooting so far, looks so much better this season, gives me hope that he can do the work needed to get better with shooting too.
 

RedOctober3829

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Let's have some perspective on Jaylen Brown. He's 20 years old and should be a junior in college. The way he looks to this point there is no doubt his ceiling in all aspects of his game is extremely high. Same perspective should be given to Tatum.
 

JakeRae

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Let's have some perspective on Jaylen Brown. He's 20 years old and should be a junior in college. The way he looks to this point there is no doubt his ceiling in all aspects of his game is extremely high. Same perspective should be given to Tatum.
This is true only if you assume that the ceiling of any 20 year old is extremely high. Brown has yet to indicate his shooting ceiling is extremely high. He was a poor free throw shooter last year and an average 3 point shooter. He was a poor shooter in college too. Any shooting projection is basically entirely based on hope. He's young, so there is hope, but that's all there is. Brown is also unlikely to turn into a great passer or shot blocker since he has exhibited roughly no ability regarding either skill so far.

He probably needs to either learn to pass or learn to shoot to be a truly valuable offensive player. If he does neither, his ceiling is DeRozan with defense, which is a useful player but not an elite player.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I'm not sure I buy this reasoning. Who are the teams who don't switch on screens today or contest perimeter shots? That is how all NBA defenses function out of necessity to being pick-n-rolled to death.
Well, there are a variety of ways to play the PnR. PHI blitzed everything when Kyrie had the ball. And not every team switches at every perimeter position. To my eyes, the Cs do it more than most, which is why they their guards are often guarding bigs underneath.

YMMV.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Good article on Brad's philosophy on trying to develop rookies here: https://sports.yahoo.com/plenty-job-training-celtics-rookies-221133479.html. here's a snippet:

"Everybody talks about young players having to learn by going through experience," said Stevens. "Why don't we just watch film and learn? Learn from things we can control and in the interim, let's beat the age thing. Let's not talk about the age thing. Let's talk about how we can be better at what we can control and how we can learn and grow every day and expedite the learning curve.

Stevens added, "because they are going to get opportunities all the way down the line, let's not focus on trying to learn from experience; let's focus on learning from every day and see if we can get a little bit better every day."

People must f'ng love playng for Brad.
 

DJnVa

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Not sure which thread I said it in, but my call that Tatum will have multiple 25+ point games this season is looking good.

(Granted this isn't how I thought it would happen, but still)

EDIT: BAH! They pulled him with 22.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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What if someone told you last May during the playoffs that in Game 4 of this season we would be led in scoring by two 20-year olds and Kyrie Irving?
 

Eddie Jurak

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What if someone told you last May during the playoffs that in Game 4 of this season we would be led in scoring by two 20-year olds and Kyrie Irving?
I'd have been very excited for the Brown's development and the potential of the Fultz/Irving backcourt. Though puzzled by the IT/Irving deal.
 

Eddie Jurak

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The play of Brown and Tatum, both offensively and defensively, in the early going has restored a lot of the excitement about the season that I lost with Hayward's injury. It's going to be a different kind of year, but this team will compete and they will get plenty of opportunity to develop.

Brown really was a spare part on offense last year, so it's impressive to see him step into a larger role very seemlessly and effectively. His 3 point shot has potential and thus far he has been much more effective driving to the basket than I would have guessed he'd be.

Tatum doesn't have Brown's level of athleticism but he's got skills and instincts that can't be taught and that Brown will never have. Impressive to see the confidence he plays with. Those comparisons to Paul Pierce, while unfair, aren't crazy.

Thus far, the big flaw I see with both of them is they have a tendency to foul too much. They (and thus the Celtics as a team this year) will suffer at times when they have difficulty staying ont he floor at key moments.

I am daydreaming about that 1% chance that Hayward is somehow able to return by playoff time...
 

BaseballJones

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Game logs so far for the young guns...

Brown:
- 25 points, 6 rebounds, 2 steals
- 18 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists
- 9 points, 8 rebounds, 2 steals
- 23 points, 4 rebounds, 1 block, 1 steal
Season averages: 18.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 47.6% FG, 36.4% 3ptFG

Tatum:
- 14 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists
- 8 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists
- 15 points, 8 rebounds, 3 blocks
- 22 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, 4 steals
Season averages: 14.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 47.6% FG, 45.5% 3ptFG

Rozier:
- 9 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 steals
- 15 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals
- 14 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists
- 8 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals
Season averages: 11.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 44.4% FG, 44.4% 3ptFG

Early, I know. But the early returns are.....very encouraging.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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What if someone told you last May during the playoffs that in Game 4 of this season we would be led in scoring by two 20-year olds and Kyrie Irving?
I would have guessed the Cs traded Jaylen and pieces for Irving; that Fultz and Irving were tearing it up; and that someone like Caleb Swanigan fell to them in the draft.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Game logs so far for the young guns...

Tatum:


Season averages: 14.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 47.6% FG, 45.5% 3ptFG

Early, I know. But the early returns are.....very encouraging.
Anyone still concerned about Tatum's outside shot? That was a matter of some discussion pre- and post-draft.

edit: this article has a little bit on Tatum's adjustment to the NBA travel schedule and some very encouraging quotes which make it seem like Tatum makes basketball a priority:

And on the seventh day, his first day without a game or practice, Jayson Tatum slept.

No watching football, no doing anything but plugging in for a re-charge.

One number, in particular, shows why the Celtics 19-year-old rookie forward needed to shut out the world Sunday. Injuries to Gordon Hayward, Marcus Smart and Marcus Morris have put a heavy workload on Tatum. He’s averaged 35 minutes over the first three games, second on the team to Kyrie Irving’s 38.

In that time, Tatum’s has averaged 12.3 points and a team-high 9.0 rebounds. But NBA travel may be the biggest revelation to Tatum. The Celtics started the season with three games in four days, including two road trips.

“I think the travel schedule — we played Cleveland and got back at 4 in the morning, played the Bucks (at home),” he said. “I thought we had the day off and I woke up and we had to fly to Philly. Oh my God, I just wanted the day off. How many games we play is ridiculous. It was a tough challenge for us. We lost to two good teams, games we could have won, then we won on the road. It’s just the small things we have to focus on.
 

Montana Fan

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Speaking of what if's. What if the Celts had Fultz, Hayward and IT4? There would be some depressed fans on this site.

PS - When are Smart and Morris returning? I assume they are on the same slow path that it seemed Horford was last year after his concussion.
 

joe dokes

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I think there's something of a positive multiplier effect on someone like Tatum, when a kid with his skills can join a good team with relatively high expectations. While a lot of talented 1st round picks have survived starting out with shitty teams (Pierce?) , it seems like it would be exponentially easier (or more likely) to develop as a complete player on a real team, instead of one trying to go from 20 wins to 30. Maybe Kawhi Leonard is a good example.
It's an added bonus to improving the team while also getting high draft picks.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I think there's something of a positive multiplier effect on someone like Tatum, when a kid with his skills can join a good team with relatively high expectations. While a lot of talented 1st round picks have survived starting out with shitty teams (Pierce?) , it seems like it would be exponentially easier (or more likely) to develop as a complete player on a real team, instead of one trying to go from 20 wins to 30. Maybe Kawhi Leonard is a good example.
I think it depends on the rookie. Rookie Tatum has such a solid NBA-level skill set and feel for the game that he is probably fully capable of holding down a key role on a good team. Rookie Brown, on the other hand, wasn't playing at that same level a year ago - compared to rookie Tatum, he had more projection and less immediate value. Had Crowder, say, suffered a major injury in game 1, it would have been a lot harder for Brown to step in as an immediate contributor than it has been for Tatum to do so this year.
 

lexrageorge

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Game logs so far for the young guns...

Brown:
- 25 points, 6 rebounds, 2 steals
- 18 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists
- 9 points, 8 rebounds, 2 steals
- 23 points, 4 rebounds, 1 block, 1 steal
Season averages: 18.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 47.6% FG, 36.4% 3ptFG

Tatum:
- 14 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists
- 8 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists
- 15 points, 8 rebounds, 3 blocks
- 22 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, 4 steals
Season averages: 14.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 47.6% FG, 45.5% 3ptFG

Rozier:
- 9 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 steals
- 15 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals
- 14 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists
- 8 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals
Season averages: 11.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 44.4% FG, 44.4% 3ptFG

Early, I know. But the early returns are.....very encouraging.
With the same disclaimer that it is still *very* early and the sample sizes are meaningless:

Tatum is 3rd among the 2017 draft class in both points and rebounds per game, tied with Lonzo for first in minutes played per game, and leads all rookies in win shares with 0.5 (meaningless now, but still fun to quote).

Comparing Brown to the 2016 draft class so far this season (same disclaimers apply):

Ben Simmons: 17 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 7 apg, 49.1% FG, 0% 3ptFG
Brandon Ingram: 14.7 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 3 apg, 39.5% FG, 50% 3ptFG (out of 6 attempts)
Dragan Bender: 3.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 0.5 apg, 23.1% FG, 30% 3ptFG (hmmmm.....)
Kriss Dunn: DNP (injured)
Buddy Hield: 12.3 ppg, 4 rpg, 2.5 apg, 35.8% FG, 23.8% 3ptFG
Jamal Murray: 6.0 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 3.3 apg, 26% FG, 14% 3ptFG

Jaylen Brown: 18.8 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 0.8 apg, 47.6% FG, 36.4% 3ptFG (plus defending LeBron and Giannis for 2 games)

Comparing Rozier to some of the players drafted after him in the first round:

Rozier: 11.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 4.0 apg, 44.4% FG, 44.4% 3ptFG

Jerian Grant: 10.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 7.3 apg, 41.9% FG, 12.5% 3ptFG
Delon White: 10.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 3.3 apg, 42.1% FG, 10% 3ptFG
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson: 14.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.3 apg, 56.3% FG, 0% 3ptFG
Larry Nance: 11.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 0.3 apg, 55.6% FG, 0% 3ptFG
RJ Hunter - woops.
 

Devizier

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I'd like to see Brown get to the line more often. For a guy who attacks the basket he really doesn't draw many fouls.
 

lexrageorge

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I'd like to see Brown get to the line more often. For a guy who attacks the basket he really doesn't draw many fouls.
I perceive Brown as still being in the "not going to get any breaks from the refs" stage. That tends to change over time provided Brown can polish his game some.
 

Devizier

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[At Ben Falk's site, www.cleaningtheglass.com, he rates Brown as (for this year) being in the 75th percentile among wings for drawing shooting fouls, which he has done at an 11.9% percentage.
That's not particularly meaningful, because a lot of wings are 3-and-D and other supporting types.

It's super early in the season so the numbers are wonky, but you want to see a guy who makes a living attacking the rim drawing fouls. Obviously a virtuoso like Pierce is an unfair comparison but he had a FTR (free throw attempts/field goal attempts) better than 0.3 even in his rookie season (Brown is ~0.2).
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Thus far, the big flaw I see with both of them is they have a tendency to foul too much. They (and thus the Celtics as a team this year) will suffer at times when they have difficulty staying ont he floor at key moments.
With Tatum it is expected due to rookie treatment from the refs.
 
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