What's fascinating is that we're having a discussion as to whether Smart gets $12M or $17M AAV in his RFA contract when twenty years ago, Smart's precursors (guys like Bruce Bowen and Doug Christie come to mind) were bouncing around the league on low-dollar contracts until they found the right situation for them.
Smart's Value
- Thread starter Devizier
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It's not a simple case of those guys being mis-valued though: once defenses learned how to play non-shooters off the floor under the new rules, the value of guys who can only shoot and play D skyrocketed.
If they learned how to play non shooters off the floor, why is Smart still playing? I'd argue his value around the league is severely hampered because he only brings half that skill set to the table.
Smart is more valuable to a good team than an average or rebuilding team. If you have the talent to score, and are in most games, you can play a guy like this for his D and he is extremely valuable to gameplanning. He is not without offensive skill, he can handle the ball, passes well, so for the Cs he is much better than I ever thought. Very hard guy to predict when it comes to money, since he does not plug in at all for some teams, but certain motivated teams he could be seen as essential. I expect there are enough of the latter for him to get a good contact.
He's an interesting, very unique player.
Pluses:
Pluses:
- Uncanny defensive ability. He seems to anticipate on the defensive end the way top offensive players do when they have the ball. He gets steals, takes charges, gets over screens, and he's as versatile a defender as you will see at only 6'4".
- PG-caliber vision and passing skills.
- Great competitive attitude; never fears the moment
- Knack for coming up with big plays in key spots
- Not all that great an athlete, especially on offense.
- Poor scoring ability, including an awful outside shot and lousy finishing around the rim. "Never fears the moment" becomes a double-edged sword, as he will chuck up brick after brick after brick).
- Can't drive to the rim in the half court. This is probably part of why he struggles finishing at the rim, as even when he does get there he's not in good position. More than the shot, this is really his biggest liability, as it detracts from his ability to facilitate for teammates (something he would otherwise have the skills to do well).
- Immaturity, which shows up in his blatant dives and his tendency to lose his cool at times. This one I think he grows out of as he matures.
I think this is the biggest challenge with Smart. Crowder is a limited player, but his strengths compliment each other and are not undercut by his weaknesses. For Smart the lack of scoring ability hurts him as a ball handler, and his guard size hurts his PF-esque skillset.
The good news is that losing Olynyk, Crowder et al may open up space for him in the corner. He is a career .343 shooter from the corner three, though that's admittedly from a small sample size. (His overall shooting on threes is .291.) If he can shoot 34% from the corner 3 that will open up a bit of space for our other guys.
The guy who MS reminds me of, especially in light of the pluses you list as well as the first couple of minuses, is Dennis Johnson.
DJ was 6'-4", 200lbs. Was a great passer (career average of 5.0 APG with a high of 7.8), terrific defender (6-time all-Defensive first team, and 3-time second team). Not a great shooter, especially from the outside (career 3PG% of .172) but a very good free-throw shooter (career .797). Big-game player (almost all his stats get better in the playoffs).
Don't really see the DJ comp. Early in his career DJ throw down at the rim. Even as his athleticism faded and/or role changed he could still get to and finish at the rim when called upon. His 2pt shooting was also markedly better than Smart.
As to 3 three point shooting, if he played in this era, there is every reason (shooting form, FT% and 2 pt FG%) to think that DJ would have developed into a competent threat from three. It is remarkable how long it took the NBA to figure out that three points were worth more than two, but its a fact. Teams, the Celtics included did not use it as a weapon. DJ never average more than .8 3PA a game and had a career average of .5. Hell even Bird only average 1.9 over the course of his career. Smart took that many his rookie year.
Rubio strikes me as a decent comp for Smart. Rubio's court vision and play making are superior but his defense while excellent is not as versatile as Smart.
Pretty much all the same pros and cons as Draymond Green, just in a slightly smaller body, alas.
Except for 3 point percentage, where Green has a healthy edge (career 33% vs 29%).
If you guys are looking for a Smart comp it is Ron Harper. Like Harper, Smart is much more valuable to a good team that allows his best assets to shine and minimizes his weaknesses. I do have hope left that he can improve into a league average shooter and if he does that he is going to be a very good player.
Maybe a late-career Harper. Early, pre-wrecked knee Harper was the first of the Jordan-wannabes.
Yeah, I have to question whether Kliq ever saw Harper play. For my money Smart is a smaller version of Ron Artest.
NBA advanced filters has it. Smart drew 23 charges last year, which was good for 5th in the league.
http://stats.nba.com/players/hustle/#!?Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular Season&PerMode=Totals&sort=CHARGES_DRAWN&dir=1
If its monetary value then here are the comps. Duncan and crew just did their mock podcast for the extension, I haven't listened to it yet though.
Pick 2 - Victor Oladipo - 4/84 (Summer 16)
Pick 3 - Otto Porter – Made it to RFA and signed 4/107
Pick 4 - Cody Zeller 4/56 - (Summer 16)
Pick 5 - Ben McLemore Renounced and signed 2/10 with Grizz as FA
Pick 6 - Nerlens Noel traded and made it to RFA only to accept one year QO for 4M
Pick 7 - KCP renounced and signed 1/18 (Klutch Sports?) After many thought he would be maxed.
Pick 10 - CJ McCollum - 4/106 - (Summer 16)
Pick 12 - Steven Adams 4/100 - (Summer 16)
Pick 13- Kelly – Renounced and got 4/50
Pick 15 - Giannias 4/100 - (Summer 16)
Pick 16 - Schroder – 4/70 - (Summer 16)
Pick 27 - Rudy Gobert 4/102 - (Summer 16)
Remember when this was the "deepest" draft ever. It has some talent, but not near what was projected. There isn't going to be funny money thrown around either.
Wiggins –
Parker
Embiid
Gordon
Exum
Smart
Randle
Stauskus
Vonleh
Payton
McDermott
Saric
Lavine
TJ Warren
Nurkic
Young
Ennis
Gary Harris
Rodney Hood
Clint Capella
2nd Round
Nikola Jokic
Dwight Powell
Jordan Clarkson
Pick 2 - Victor Oladipo - 4/84 (Summer 16)
Pick 3 - Otto Porter – Made it to RFA and signed 4/107
Pick 4 - Cody Zeller 4/56 - (Summer 16)
Pick 5 - Ben McLemore Renounced and signed 2/10 with Grizz as FA
Pick 6 - Nerlens Noel traded and made it to RFA only to accept one year QO for 4M
Pick 7 - KCP renounced and signed 1/18 (Klutch Sports?) After many thought he would be maxed.
Pick 10 - CJ McCollum - 4/106 - (Summer 16)
Pick 12 - Steven Adams 4/100 - (Summer 16)
Pick 13- Kelly – Renounced and got 4/50
Pick 15 - Giannias 4/100 - (Summer 16)
Pick 16 - Schroder – 4/70 - (Summer 16)
Pick 27 - Rudy Gobert 4/102 - (Summer 16)
Remember when this was the "deepest" draft ever. It has some talent, but not near what was projected. There isn't going to be funny money thrown around either.
Wiggins –
Parker
Embiid
Gordon
Exum
Smart
Randle
Stauskus
Vonleh
Payton
McDermott
Saric
Lavine
TJ Warren
Nurkic
Young
Ennis
Gary Harris
Rodney Hood
Clint Capella
2nd Round
Nikola Jokic
Dwight Powell
Jordan Clarkson
Just listened to the Dunc'd on mock contract extension covering Smart. They came to "agreement" at 4/44 or a 3+1 at 40M.
I think all us fans and the Boston FO would be very happy with that. Marcus, maybe not...
I think all us fans and the Boston FO would be very happy with that. Marcus, maybe not...
Nice article on Celtics Hub making the pro-Smart case.
http://www.celticshub.com/2017/09/11/marcus-smart-ship-stevens/
http://www.celticshub.com/2017/09/11/marcus-smart-ship-stevens/
O'Connor with an article mentioning Smart.
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/9/12/16290580/rookie-scale-extension-candidates
He claims most league sources are putting Marcus at $10M annually. Seems way too low, but if that's actually the buzz his agent is hearing, might increase the chance Smart takes a somewhat lower extension than we think if the Celtics act early enough.
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/9/12/16290580/rookie-scale-extension-candidates
He claims most league sources are putting Marcus at $10M annually. Seems way too low, but if that's actually the buzz his agent is hearing, might increase the chance Smart takes a somewhat lower extension than we think if the Celtics act early enough.
I think it's easy to see a FA Marcus Smart (current version, if he improves, all bets are off) netting a contract around what James Johnson and Igoudala got this year. Basically, 4/60. It's harder to see him in the $20/year range of guys like Hill, Teague, Ibaka, and Gallinari.
But, he's not a free agent, he's restricted. We've seen this off-season that being restricted has a dramatic impact on submax players. Smart is not a max player. His problem is, any team that values him at 4/60 would be foolish to offer it because the Celtics would match. So, you need to find a team that overvalues him and has cap space to make an offer worthwhile for them. Only one restricted FA found that team this year. (Maybe 2 if you count Porter.)
If I'm Ainge, I'm probably targeting 4/48 or so as a fair extension offer based on my sense of the market. I'll still be thrilled, though, if we extend him for anything up to 4/60.
Yeah he's an interesting case. There just isn't really a record of defensive guards/wings without a shot getting paid more than 10ish, but it feels low for him, as you said.
Isn't this the key takeaway from that article? (Thanks for posting it, btw)
Just a guess, but cross off the Lakers and maybe the Bulls as likely destinations.
Avery is a decent but not a perfect comp as a D-first guard (better shot, worse handle & pass, less positional & defensive flexibility, better on-ball defender). Also, Rondo's first C's contract was similar and similar timing.
IMHO, Smart has made enough changes this offseason (lost 20 pounds, re-tooled his shot) that he should be a different player this year. Also, totally different roster which will affect his usage and maybe his minutes... Seems to me he should have a better year this year and those values will be adjusted upwards (but it's also possible he's about the same).
IMHO, Smart has made enough changes this offseason (lost 20 pounds, re-tooled his shot) that he should be a different player this year. Also, totally different roster which will affect his usage and maybe his minutes... Seems to me he should have a better year this year and those values will be adjusted upwards (but it's also possible he's about the same).
This is why I'm hoping that they get Smart inked to a market rate extension this fall, because if their new approach to fixing his shot works (having him practice from so deep that his form needs to be technically sound to have any chance of making shots) then he could take a big leap this year. Marcus Smart is a valuable rotation player, Marcus Smart that can shoot treys at an above league average rate is an all star.
Smart is much more versatile than Bradley and that in itself carries a ton of value. I don't want him to be a different player as his skillset as a complementary 2-guard with the starting unit/combo guard with Rozier on second unit is ideal (sure I'd like to get the 3's to 32-34% at some point but to me that's negligible).
I still feel his best role is to begin the game on the bench as he did last year to spark our second unit with Rozier so I'd love to see Jaylen in the Amir role playing the first 6-7 minutes with the first unit at the start of each half.
Speights is insane. 34 charges (2nd in NBA) in half the minutes of other guys in top 5.
Anyone know if Smart still represented by Josh Ketroser?
FWIW if Smart wants to get paid like Mason, he should go hire his agent, Mark Bartelstein. That guy does a great job for the NBA's middle class. Dunc'd On referenced him a few months ago. When you look up his client list and their contracts its staggering. Basically, if you thought a veteran got too many years or dollars odds are he was represented by Bartelstein (except for 2016 when everyone got overpaid).
FWIW if Smart wants to get paid like Mason, he should go hire his agent, Mark Bartelstein. That guy does a great job for the NBA's middle class. Dunc'd On referenced him a few months ago. When you look up his client list and their contracts its staggering. Basically, if you thought a veteran got too many years or dollars odds are he was represented by Bartelstein (except for 2016 when everyone got overpaid).
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I'm glad he's lost the weight. I got pummeled in this space a year ago when I suggested that Smart looked fat — which he was. There are no good NBA guards who weigh 240 pounds. Maybe less heft will make it a little harder for Smart to defend big men, but it should help his quickness and his ability to create on offense.
Aw, I always thought Smart would make a nifty undersized stretch-4 -- kinda like a homeless man's Charles Barkley. (I'm only half-kidding -- there were a couple times last year where I wanted him fronting a strong post player instead of letting that guy abuse Horford or Amir.)
Seriously, I'm not sure I love the weight loss. He was plenty quick even with the extra weight, and it's not like being lighter will make him dribble or shoot better.
Seriously, I'm not sure I love the weight loss. He was plenty quick even with the extra weight, and it's not like being lighter will make him dribble or shoot better.
Smart was never on the "Jared Sullinger diet plan" as he didn't have a beer belly. He was just built like an NFL linebacker. Which did help him when they asked him to beat up bigger guys in the post on the defensive end.
Tommy Heinsohn called him overweight last May:
Or check out this video from a year ago, specifically the last 25 seconds. Smart looks more like John Bagley (right before he ate himself out the league) than Jamie Collins.
Then just watch the video from around 25 seconds through 40 seconds. That is not the body of an NBA guard. Smart is going to be MUCH better this year now that he's in NBA shape.
Attachments
The DJ nomination is interesting as a 'best case' Smart comp. There's more there than some suggest, imo. But it is also true that DJ was a better offensive player day 1 than Smart, and had a physical tool (leaping ability) that Smart won't ever possess, so I am not sure we should be thinking 'hall of fame' here even in a best-case. Smart is also stronger and more versatile defensively.
The problem with the Artest comp is that his offensive game was always better than Smart's. Something to that defensively and intensity wise, though. I think the idea that Smart can be a regular stretch 4 is unrealistic regardless of weight---he can spot there, but it's a huge ask at his size. There are, literally, zero comps for that (Barkley is much bigger size-wise and much more athletic).
Denigrate Tommy all you want (and I don't disagree many times) but he's right about this.
The problem with the Artest comp is that his offensive game was always better than Smart's. Something to that defensively and intensity wise, though. I think the idea that Smart can be a regular stretch 4 is unrealistic regardless of weight---he can spot there, but it's a huge ask at his size. There are, literally, zero comps for that (Barkley is much bigger size-wise and much more athletic).
Denigrate Tommy all you want (and I don't disagree many times) but he's right about this.
No, it's the body of an NFL linebacker. He literally bears no resemblance to the beer-bellied and betitted Sullinger.
Actually it wasn't. Artest was a scuffler for years. He scored more per game, but that was strictly a function of playing on those gawdawful post-Jordan Bulls teams where he was allowed to fire up shots because someone had to take them.
It really wasn't until he was 23-24 that he became the Ron Artest that you're remembering, and honestly that guy wasn't exactly an offensive powerhouse either. Artest really only had a couple of seasons where his shooting or scoring efficiency approached NBA average. He was the quintessential other guy on the floor level offensive player. We just have nightmares because one of his few positive performances came in game 7 of the 2010 NBA finals.
If the C's need Smart to be a stretch 4 on a roster with Morris, Tatum, Brown, Hayward, and some rookies who might compete for minutes there (Theis,Yabusele, Olejeye), it will be an indication that a lot has gone horribly wrong.
No, I remember the guy as a rookie and stand by my comment having actually watched him play. You say it like age 23 is late in his career--obviously, that's not the case.
Artest's numbers were better and more efficient than Smart's from the start---though he wasn't good early on, just better than Smart has been. He also had two things skill-wise all along that Smart does not---a reliable inside game (mostly because he had size) at the rim and a three-point shot that was non-horrendous. Look at the effective FG%, PER, whatever you want for that end of the court, stats tell the same story the eyes did--Artest was a materially better offensive player. Smart's rookie year was acceptable offensively, but his last two years are truly awful offensively, and I say that as someone who very much likes his game overall.
Artest was an above-average offensive player from his age 23 season on, statistically speaking. Some of that is his passing, but his shooting (while not great) was non-horrendous pretty early on too. I hope Smart gets there because I love what he brings, but he is not there yet.
I don't think he's saying 23 is late; rather, that that is the age Smart is for this season. So, one could hope for a leap. That being said, yes, Artest was ahead of Smart during comparable years.
Perhaps, and if so that's much closer to what I think the data and my recollection suggest. I certainly do hope Smart gets to even the Artest level this year, and have a level of optimism he does and perhaps more. Betting on heart and hard work is not a bad thing to be doing, even if it doesn't always pay off
It's the NBA offseason and I'm reading a thread about probably the Celtics' 6th most valuable player. Can't I have some blatant homerism?
Smart is probably the 4th best player on the Celtics, not the 6th.It's the NBA offseason and I'm reading a thread about probably the Celtics' 6th most valuable player. Can't I have some blatant homerism?
Not too svelte, I hope. After watching the video that jack posted upthread, I clicked thru to watch this one:
After watching that one, I walked away thinking that he had better not lose too much weight or he will get injured considering the utter fearlessness he exhibits in accepting charges.
After watching that one, I walked away thinking that he had better not lose too much weight or he will get injured considering the utter fearlessness he exhibits in accepting charges.