Devers called up to Majors

Minneapolis Millers said:

Moreland must be paying someone to gather his "max speed sprints" data. I know Pedroia's not nearly as fast as he thinks he is, but slower than Moreland??

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Pedey has clearly been impacted by the balky knee for most of the season and that would certainly affect his sprint speed. Of course, Moreland has had the broken toe, but that was only a portion of his season and it's not like he was getting on much to do any sprinting at the peak of the injury.

if anyone wants to play around with the data, you can find it here:

• https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard

it will be fascinating to see this data after a couple of years, particularly to see how much slower players get as they age, especially when they drop off a cliff. the data only goes back to 2015, so it's hard to really say how fast pedey used to be, but it's clear that he hasn't been particularly fast in recent memory, with top sprint speeds of 26.7, 26.3 and 26.2 the last 3 years.

it's pretty amazing how much slower pujols (23.0 ft/s) is than the rest of the league, save a small handful of really slow catchers. it's also amazing how much worse he's gotten in only a few short years, trending to the tune of 24.4, 23.7, and 23.0. to put that in perpective, papi was 24.4 and 24.5 in his last 2 years.

in regards to devers, his chubby face has clearly resulted in skewed perception of his skillset. you see him and *think* he's a fat masher that is a statue at 3b and clogs up the bases. in reality, it seems like he has above average speed (league average is ~27.0 ft/s). what's funny is that these misconceptions work the other way, too. i've heard more than a few announcers describe JBJ as fast (or very fast) when, in reality, he's a few ticks above average (27.4 ft/s this year). this is probably because his jumps in center field create the illusion that he's faster than he really is, but it's still interesting nonetheless.

after 89 mlb atbats, admittedly still a small sample, here's some of dever's key stats from across a few sites that provide a decent summary of all aspects of his game:

• triple slash: .350 / .416 / .700
• wRC+ 186
• WAR: 1.2
• bb%: 10.1 %
• k%: 23.6%
• xbh%: 13.5%
• hr%: 9.0%
• ab/hr: 10.0
• avg exit velo: 93.06 mph (lg avg = 87.61)
• avg distance: 222.15 ft (lg avg = 202.46)
• avg gen velo: 5.80 mph (lg avg = -0.98)
• avg launch angle: 9.23 deg (lg avg = 12.02)
• pull / center / oppo: 18.6% / 40.7% / 40.7%
• sprint speed: 27.9%
• BsR: -0.8
• UZR: -1.0
• UZR/150: -7.9

while the sample sizes are probably too small for stats like UZR, anecdotally, his base running and defense look a little rocky at times though not a clear liability. his batting, on the other hand, is pretty otherwordly, which is probably the most obvious thing i've typed on this site. i mentioned this in the game thread, but, for the past month, it's as if papi has come out of retirement and has learned to play a credible third base. while devers will inevitably come back down to earth, it's been a pretty special thing to watch.

Pitt the Elder said:

in regards to devers, his chubby face has clearly resulted in skewed perception of his skillset. you see him and *think* he's a fat masher that is a statue at 3b and clogs up the bases. in reality, it seems like he has above average speed (league average is ~27.0 ft/s). what's funny is that these misconceptions work the other way, too. i've heard more than a few announcers describe JBJ as fast (or very fast) when, in reality, he's a few ticks above average (27.4 ft/s this year). this is probably because his jumps in center field create the illusion that he's faster than he really is, but it's still interesting nonetheless.

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Not just his jumps, but his route efficiency.

As with the new understanding of pitch release point, the real sports issue is not the velocity of the ball but the time between release point (or recognition thereof) and the ball crossing the plate; velocity is just a proxy because of the way we think about it.

Same goes for running in the field; we think in terms of speed, but what matters is the time one has/takes to get to the ball--a good jump increases the time a fielder has, while a good route reduces the time he needs.

So JBJ appears fast to someone who either isn't really paying attention or hasn't thought it through simply because he so often appears to have enough time.

The sprint speed thing is odd. I've seen his speed tool listed at 3 and 4 which is below average. That's kind of tough to improve that much on, even at his young age.

Reminds me a bit of X who was fringe average/,average speed when he was coming up through the system, and now he's one of the quicker guys on the team.

i'm trying to find current home-to-first times to see if we have another objective measure of his speed but all i could find was a fangraphs article from May that includes some data for the season up to that point: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/2017-home-to-first-times/

it may not be inaccurate to assume that young guys are faster and old guys and that, by dint of their age, devers and bogaerts are likely to compare better against guys in their late 20s and early 30s than against other peers in their early 20s. perhaps speed is one of the rare skills that plays up better as you jump up through the system?

grimshaw said:

The sprint speed thing is odd. I've seen his speed tool listed at 3 and 4 which is below average. That's kind of tough to improve that much on, even at his young age.

Reminds me a bit of X who was fringe average/,average speed when he was coming up through the system, and now he's one of the quicker guys on the team.

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From the description of the stat:

Sprint Speed
Sprint Speed is Statcast’s foot speed metric, defined as “feet per second in a player’s fastest one-second window.” The Major League average on a "max effort" play is 27 ft/sec, and the max effort range is roughly from 23 ft/sec (poor) to 30 ft/sec (elite). A player must have at least 10 max effort runs to qualify for this leaderboard. Read more about how Sprint Speed works here.

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I tend to think that that top speed number is probably less important in baseball, given how game play works, than it might be in some other sports.

I would think average speed (or base-to-base times as a proxy) would be a more useful stat. If you have a high top speed but a slow acceleration, then your effective speed may not be that fast.

That might be better... but that wouldn't account for lead and jump.

Ideally, we'd want a metric for how much "time" it takes different guys to perform an act, e.g. steal a base--measured from some kind of theoretical common starting point, like when the pitcher sets or something.

You can totally imagine how a slower guy could steal a base in less time, for example, than a faster guy with an inferior lead/jump.

Pitt the Elder said:

I would think average speed (or base-to-base times as a proxy) would be a more useful stat. If you have a high top speed but a slow acceleration, then your effective speed may not be that fast.

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It's absolutely true that some people have a great first step or two without having the highest top speed and this definitely makes a difference in some circumstances.

Wake's knuckle said:

It's absolutely true that some people have a great first step or two without having the highest top speed and this definitely makes a difference in some circumstances.

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As evidenced by JBJ's work in CF. I remember seeing on Statcast on at least one occasion where his reaction time was negative, in other words, he was already moving in the right direction before the ball was hit.

Al Zarilla said:

Same here (surprised by the speed numbers). Devers that close to Mookie?, and Leon should have much, much slower numbers than that compared to the top guys.

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I dunno. Four feet in a second is a loooong way. Almost a full foot slower than Vaz is really slow.

For reference, Usain Bolt's world record is just over 34 feet per second. Which is crazy. Bolt is more faster than Leon is slower than Mookie.

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon said:

I dunno. Four feet in a second is a loooong way. Almost a full foot slower than Vaz is really slow.

For reference, Usain Bolt's world record is just over 34 feet per second. Which is crazy. Bolt is more faster than Leon is slower than Mookie.

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That's Bolt's average speed over 100 m for the world record. His peak speed was 40.76 ft/s.

We need to bring in Bolt as a PR specialist - he might reach 3rd by the time the throw gets to 2nd. (Charles O Finley was ahead of his time).

Dewey'sCannon said:

We need to bring in Bolt as a PR specialist - he might reach 3rd by the time the throw gets to 2nd. (Charles O Finley was ahead of his time).

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I picture Bolt stealing second and then, unable to contain his rocket skate-like speed, pasted spread eagle, face first up against the monster, a la Wile E. Coyote.

Should've painted a tunnel.

Gotta read these threads in order. Looked up at the last couple of posts and thought (crazily) that you were talking about Brock Holt and just were using a snazzy new way of shortening his name.

Has anyone made the connection to the namesake for this site?

Sam Horn (through first 177 PAs at 23 YO): 0.945 OPS, 143 OPS+
Rafael Devers (through first 102 PAs at 20 YO): 0.985 OPS, 152 OPS+

Enjoy the ride. But, don't get too attached just in case it's a mirage.

Ya, not at all. A three year age difference, pedigree, and one being a DH is a silly comp.
Plus Sam Horn continued to hit for the O's.

Bmac with a piece on ESPN.com, suggesting Devers, as crazy as it sounds, might have to lead the Sox offensively from here on out

For all of their star power, if the Red Sox are going to play deep into October, the precocious Devers might have to carry them there.

“They’re going to learn him, and he’s going to learn them,” Davis said of opposing pitchers. “But with the abilities he has, once he learns them, they’re going to have a tough time getting him out.”

For a time, the Red Sox seemed comfortable entrusting Devers with such an important role. It took less than a week after his call-up for Red Sox manager John Farrell to hit him in the No. 5 hole in the batting order, between Ramirez and Bogaerts.

But after a week that saw Devers go without an extra-base hit, Farrell dropped his rookie third baseman down to the No. 8 spot -- the lowest he had hit in the order since July.

“It’s pretty clear over the last 10 days or so how opposing pitchers are attacking him,” Farrell said. “You’re seeing a young guy that is forced to make adjustments. Today is a good showing.”

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http://www.espn.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/53281/red-sox-might-need-rafael-devers-to-carry-them