What will D-Dom do before the trade deadline?
- Thread starter Sandy Leon Trotsky
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Considering they're both platoon players vs. RHP, it'll work out that way anyways.
Why are we asssuming Moreland isn't hitting because of an injury? This is who he has been for most of the 6 years he's been in the majors. He started out hot and now he's cold, averaging to roughly what he averages.
There's no assuming regarding Moreland and his injury. He broke his toe on June 13. His slash line through that date: .285/.382/.495 (249 PA). His slash line since the injury: .162/.234/.252 (124 PA).
He might be a streaky player, but that's one hell of a coincidence to have a cold streak start immediately after an injury and have it not be related to that injury.
He might be a streaky player, but that's one hell of a coincidence to have a cold streak start immediately after an injury and have it not be related to that injury.
People use/stop using toe taps all the time for timing. Not sure if he's one.
It might look like inability to recognize, but if his foot hurts, he might be trying to cheat on what he hopes will be fastballs. That leaves him open to breaking stuff, which might look like failure to recognize. And then he starts to guess, which compounds things.
Any hitter needs to keep their weight back, and in Moreland's case that involves more weight on his left foot (injured foot). If he is reluctant to do that for any reason, it will result in his weight shifting forward and will translate into an inability to drive the ball and the appearance of not recognizing pitches as he is "out on his front foot".
According to Moreland his toe/foot is fine and he is getting sick of answering questions about it.
IDK, was the foot still holding him back when he had that 3 homers in 3 games stretch after the injury?
I don't discount the possibility or anything, but you also can't just overlook that maybe Mitch Moreland is simply being Mitch Moreland. He had 2 really bad months last season too.
I don't discount the possibility or anything, but you also can't just overlook that maybe Mitch Moreland is simply being Mitch Moreland. He had 2 really bad months last season too.
I suppose hitting a meatball can be done on one leg. Perhaps just had some good fortune on location.
That his slump coincided with the injury is irrefutable. Injuries can mess with mechanics. Maybe the foot is OK now, maybe not. But its possible he has yet to get his swing back.
Perhaps he was due for regression. He has had bad months before, but the injury seemed to trigger it
If he doesn't want people asking if he is hurt he could start playing like it.
Hell a .700 OPS from him probably wins them a couple extra games over the last 6 weeks.
This team needs A LOT more than just a marginal upgrade at 3B.
They have extreme underperformance at both 1B and DH. They need a serious shake up in the lineup if they want to do anything substantial this year. You can't expect to win short series with a team that can get shut out multiple times in a series.
They have extreme underperformance at both 1B and DH. They need a serious shake up in the lineup if they want to do anything substantial this year. You can't expect to win short series with a team that can get shut out multiple times in a series.
I think we're looking at our first must-win of the season tonight. Pull out a W tonight, get Sale tomorrow, day off, then 9 game homestand.
DD will then feel more comfortable making the marginal moves we need in the lineup and in the bullpen without needing to make a ridiculous move. Plus we get to breathe in first place for at least another 3 days.
DD will then feel more comfortable making the marginal moves we need in the lineup and in the bullpen without needing to make a ridiculous move. Plus we get to breathe in first place for at least another 3 days.
I would clarify that a bit.
Hanley is hitting .289 for July -- a third of his hits have been for extra bases (5 HR and 3 doubles). That's not extreme underperformance. It just feels that way when Moreland has been awful.
If you want to talk about extreme underperformance, you need to look at X, who is hitting .164 for the month and has 9 hits for all of July. I actually think that's what has been killing them more than anything.
In some ways, I think this offensive slump has actually been a good thing for the team because it's happening before the deadline, not after it. Obviously, you're not going to trade for a SS--you need to get X healthy--but it seems to me that Moreland may be the easier place to upgrade in this market.
But, I mean the end goal here is a World Series right. We are have a 9 WAR starting pitcher, a 3 WAR closer, and the best starting rotation in the league. This team can throw the pill, they are just really suffering from corner infield production. You have to hope that Dever helps one of those areas, which honestly he can't hurt, then you have to go make a move for a left handed 1B who can actually hit a home run.
I doubt that whether Dombrowski -- who has been a major league GM since 1988 -- makes a "ridiculous" move will depend on the next 1, 2 or 5 games. Whatever he does -- smart, stupid, or in between -- will be based on a much larger body of work.
The goal in these 3 years is World Series or Bust. I think with the right moves to add power in the lineup and stability in the 8th that we'll be right there in the ALCS. Give me a 7 game series against Houston and let's see what happens.
And I trust DD to make the right moves. The only one people can really chide him on is the Travis Shaw deal and that isn't exactly fair because Thornburg didn't even get a chance to pitch. A "ridiculous" move to me wouldn't be one where he makes a bad trade, but where he almost improves the team too much, as stupid as that sounds.
Neil Paine was talking on Ringer MLB Pod yesterday about how historically good the Astros and Dodgers have been this year. Even with this historically great season, their odds to win it all are at 20% (Dodgers) and 16% (Astros). So there needs to be the type of sweet spot where you improve your odds to play and win in October all while realizing that a Giancarlo Stanton deal doesn't boost your WS odds by more than 5-6% and could be a net-negative in wins for years to come.
This team has only been shut out 8 times this season, or a little less than 8% of the time. The pitchers?
CC Sabathia twice
Francisco Lirano
Dylan Bundy
Masahiro Tanaka
Alex Cobb
Christian Bergman
Nick Pivetta
So the shutouts haven't exactly been an issue with being able to hit the top pitchers in the league. Seems like random variance to me.
They have been shut out 9 times, which leads the major leagues in shut outs. Being shut out 8% of the time is a really bad thing. They just simply can't hit home runs, it's an issue that has to be addressed or they aren't going to make it in 2017.
To add to that...
I think my targets would be Yonder Alonso and Eduardo Nunez. Nunez should be had for next to nothing and you'd think given the market Yonder would be pretty affordable.
Those 2 really help the complexion of the middle and bottom of the lineup.
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"Only" 8 times? Actually, it is 9 times. And according to baseball reference, there have been 149 shutouts this year. So non-Sox teams are averaging 4.8 shutouts, the Sox have 9. The AL:
Angels: 8
Astros: 2
A's: 5
Blue Jays: 4
Indians: 6
Mariners: 7
Orioles: 7
Rangers: 3
Rays: 5
Royals: 8
Tigers: 7
Twins: 1
White Sox: 7
Yankees: 1
The Red Sox have been shut out more times than any other team in the American League.
Edit: beaten to it. This team won't win in October because they can't hit. They may win some 2-1 or 3-2 games if Sale or Price pitches a gem. But they aren't winning multiple playoff series. I see an ALDS series win as their absolute ceiling.
This team needs dingers. They are 27/30 with 99 HRs on the season. League average is 125. They are 11th in doubles and 8th in OBP. The pitching is top 5 by most metrics. Whether they want to rely on Hanley, Mookie, 10D, Moreland, St. Devers, or go for the trade route, that is the bottom line.
Fortunately, the long ball is cheap this year and there are options. If DDski and management are really in GFIN mode, just looking at HR leaders on crap teams, there are some potential options (I apologize if some of these are ridiculous, still getting the hang of this):
Jay Bruce (CIN) - .264/.328/.523/.851 with 25 HR, FA next year.
Yonder Alonso (OAK) - .264/.363/.535/.898 with 21 HR, FA next year.
Khris Davis (OAK) - .244/.333/.522/.855, 28 HR, Arb. eligible next year at 30 years old. I don't have a good understanding of arb. but I'm guessing it means he's about to get expensive.
Justin Smoak (TOR) - .298/.377/.589/.966 with 27 HR, signed thru next season and a team option after that. Likely too good of a contract and production on a team that always wants to compete.
Justin Bour (MIA) - .289/.366/.548/.914, 21 HR, arb. eligible next year at age 29.
Fortunately, the long ball is cheap this year and there are options. If DDski and management are really in GFIN mode, just looking at HR leaders on crap teams, there are some potential options (I apologize if some of these are ridiculous, still getting the hang of this):
Jay Bruce (CIN) - .264/.328/.523/.851 with 25 HR, FA next year.
Yonder Alonso (OAK) - .264/.363/.535/.898 with 21 HR, FA next year.
Khris Davis (OAK) - .244/.333/.522/.855, 28 HR, Arb. eligible next year at 30 years old. I don't have a good understanding of arb. but I'm guessing it means he's about to get expensive.
Justin Smoak (TOR) - .298/.377/.589/.966 with 27 HR, signed thru next season and a team option after that. Likely too good of a contract and production on a team that always wants to compete.
Justin Bour (MIA) - .289/.366/.548/.914, 21 HR, arb. eligible next year at age 29.
I always wondered why teams weren't more progressive in trying guys like Bryce Brentz at 1b. It's not like you can really screw up his development. He isn't on the 40 but clearing a spot shouldn't be an issue. If he sucks, you just release him. The last 224 PA, he is hitting .328/.406/.667, with a respectable 25bb/43k and an absurd 32 extra base hits, 17 of those HRs. See if he can ride it out.
Also, does anyone know why Lin hasn't played the last 3 games in AAA? I'd much prefer him to Holt and Marrero but at the same point I'd like to see Lin get consistent ABs the rest of the year even if it's in AAA. Let him play more in the OF as well. He could play a big role in 2018 as the UI/4th OF.
Also, does anyone know why Lin hasn't played the last 3 games in AAA? I'd much prefer him to Holt and Marrero but at the same point I'd like to see Lin get consistent ABs the rest of the year even if it's in AAA. Let him play more in the OF as well. He could play a big role in 2018 as the UI/4th OF.
Lin is at best a 5th OF. Need someone with a little pop in the 4th OF role.
He could be a fine UI but that isn't going to move the needle all that much.
I'm wondering if it is the hitting philosophy/approach that is the issue or the talent.
Across the board Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, H-Ram and Pedroia are all hitting for less power this year than last.
That is supposed to be the core of the offense and the first 3 should be in the prime of their careers.
He could be a fine UI but that isn't going to move the needle all that much.
I'm wondering if it is the hitting philosophy/approach that is the issue or the talent.
Across the board Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, H-Ram and Pedroia are all hitting for less power this year than last.
That is supposed to be the core of the offense and the first 3 should be in the prime of their careers.
You've been watching baseball long enough to know this statement is complete nonsense.
Baseball is not a game where the better team wins all the time, not even when the best team is playing the worst team and the Red Sox are very far from being the worst team. The likelihood of any playoff team beating any other playoff team never really gets above 66% or so.
Even as is, with no deadline trades and no contribution from Devers, how many teams are there that are clearly better than the Sox? More importantly, how many of them are the Sox potentially going to play in the playoffs.
Now maybe you can make an argument for Cleveland being better, but they're certainly not clearly better, nor are the Yanks. That basically leaves Houston and some NL teams which means the Sox can only play two of them.
The baseball playoffs favor teams with aces, good bullpens, and that hit home runs. The Sox have two out of the three.
The Sox can win the world series as is. If you don't accept this as truth, you don't understand baseball. That doesn't mean they will; it doesn't even mean they'll make the playoffs, but every half decent team in the game can win the world series.
So quit your bitching, enjoy Devers' debut, and let's get at this fucking thing, shall we?
Their walk rate and K rate are basically identical to 2016, 9% and 18% respectively. Their BABIP is down from .320 to .303. Their ISO is down to .142 from .179.
This is a story about power, pure and simple. They just aren't hitting for extra bases like they did last year, and it includes many of the same players just not getting it done.
Didn't realize they ranked at the bottom of the league there. Mea culpa. That said, I still don't think multiple shutouts per series is likely at all. But I don't disagree the offense probably needs a boost (I made that argument on the podcast this week, actually). I'm a fan of the contact over power approach, but I think a minimum amount of power is likely required for that to work. Bottom 5 in the league just isn't enough. If they were middle of the pack, it probably wouldn't be an issue (see the 2013 Red Sox).
That said, I don't know if Alonso is the answer and I'm not sure Nunez is likely to give the team more than Devers, especially if power is the concern. He's a league average bat with speed.
Alonso's home runs by month go 4, 10, 3, 4 while Moreland's go 2, 4, 6, 0. That 10 looks like the outlier to me.
For SLG, Alonso goes .515, .803, .433, .422. Moreland goes .477, .465, .462, .167.
Moreland clearly lost the ability to hit for power when he broke his toe, and even if it has healed (as he claims) he hasn't gotten it back yet. But if it is healed (and Dombrowski would know that better than us) he may need to make a mechanical adjustment or something to tap back into his power, or maybe he just did have a coincidental healthy cold streak that followed the recovery.
Either way, I'm not sure that Alonso is all that much more likely to be a better source of power than Moreland going forward. Certainly not enough so that I'd want to give up a decent prospect to find out. Plus, even if they can get him cheap, they need to either dump Moreland (which is fine if they think he isn't healthy or isn't likely to get back to the .450+ SLG guy he was through nearly the end of June), or be confident they can get him on the DL and keep them there until August is over. Or include him in the package heading to Oakland, I guess, but I don't see why Beane would want him.
Don't think Alonso is the guy either. Can't our "need power" chips on a guy who came out of nowhere this year. If 1B is the problem it continues to be, I really think Duda is the guy. .300 ISO and 133 wRC+ last I checked would be far and away the best on the team.
Right now there are 3 holes in the lineup. 3B, 1B, and C. If Devers answers our prayers, we still need to fill one of the other two. Which one will be messier to fill? I don't know.
Mookie has ~31 doubles and ~15 HRs, last I remember - that doesn't seem like an ISO problem. the issue with him is he's pulling EVERYTHING, leading to a lot of pop-ups when pitches are spotted on the outside half of the plate, really bringing down his OBP.
I'm still wondering about 1b full time. If Moreland was a stop gap for 1b/DH, was it for Travis or for someone else they had their eyes on in upcoming free agency or trade? If it's one of those guys in upcoming free agency - please God, go out and acquire him now.
If it's Travis - to this point he looks more like a move the line guy (.266/.330/.411 in AAA) than the power bat they need. If they were assuming the rest of the offense wouldn't fall too far off from last year, and they could live with modest production at a traditional power position, then they may need to rethink that given the rest of the roster.
If it's Travis - to this point he looks more like a move the line guy (.266/.330/.411 in AAA) than the power bat they need. If they were assuming the rest of the offense wouldn't fall too far off from last year, and they could live with modest production at a traditional power position, then they may need to rethink that given the rest of the roster.
I don't think there ever has been a firm and looking beyond the current hole "plan" for first post-Napoli.
Travis simply isn't that kind of prospect, and Moreland essentially just amounted to a roll of the dice out of a pretty iffy overall field of free agent options.
I always thought they'd move Sandoval to 1B to take advantage of his most excellent hitting as his defense declined.
I'm almost always wrong.
I'm almost always wrong.
He said he'd never play there again after he did the splits and got hurt in one of his only games at first for Gigantes.
They aren't upgrading at catcher. They're all in on the all glove no bat duo this year (at least). And I think Devers can basically give the team what they would have been expecting out of a Todd Frazier trade. Roughly a league average bat with below average OBP and above average SLG. Of course, the reason he was called up so early is so that they can get a look at him for a week to see if he shows signs of being capable of doing that, allowing them to focus elsewhere with the August waiver-wire deadline being the safety net for Devers starting off well but collapsing after a couple of weeks.
So that basically leaves 1B, and I think you are right that Duda is probably the best option available there, but it's Dombrowski so who knows? He could pull off a Joey Votto trade that no one sees coming and it shouldn't be shocking. That's just how he operates. If they decide they are going to plug a better bat into 1B, I'm guessing it'll be someone who isn't getting much attention.
I also think they'd like to upgrade the pen if they can. Best case scenario is that Devers is ready to contribute offensively, they find a relatively cheap option at 1st, another in the pen and can trade for a less interesting league average-ish bat in August if they need to.
Duda at ~3M left + Neshek at ~2.75 (or Reed at ~3.5 left) would make me feel a lot better and would leave around 4-5M to spend on an August deal or two without going over.
Agreed, as much as I don't like it, they're sticking with this crew at C. I think a Duda/Reed trade would be ideal for both parties. It'll probably take Chavis or Dalbec + an arm and a throw in, but for the rest of the year those two would solidify our biggest needs.
A stunner is definitely never out of the question with DD. I just hope he realizes that with the right bat and back end arm, there's a great chance we'll take the East and see the Astros in the ALCS.
I'm not that bullish on Brentz. OPS by month: .607, .794, 1.161, .809. Looks like an .800ish AAA hitter with a hot month and a cold month to me.
He's 28 and in his 6th season in AAA. It's not about being bullish. It's about not really having anything to lose. Just like trying Rusney Castillo at 3b.
Pretty much this - though to me it's more along the lines that he was formerly decently regarded with plus power potential and this is the first he's slugged over .500 since 2011 when he was a top 10 Sox prospect in a deeper system.
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Would Brentz be any worse that Chris Young?
Peter GammonsVerified account @pgammo
So Bryce Brentz was a .314/.435/.643/1.078 against LHP @Pawtucket, w/HR every 10 AB
Peter GammonsVerified account @pgammo
So Bryce Brentz was a .314/.435/.643/1.078 against LHP @Pawtucket, w/HR every 10 AB
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According to Scott Lauber, the Sox are still looking at 3B as well as relievers.
"Red Sox believed to still be focusing on relievers and third basemen before the trade deadline. They had scouts watching Philadelphia (Pat Neshek) and Detroit (Justin Wilson), among other teams, within the past few days. Although they're hoping top prospect Rafael Devers gives them the lift that Andrew Benintendi did a year ago, the continued third-base interest is presumably for a fallback option."
http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0681627950893766155-4
"Red Sox believed to still be focusing on relievers and third basemen before the trade deadline. They had scouts watching Philadelphia (Pat Neshek) and Detroit (Justin Wilson), among other teams, within the past few days. Although they're hoping top prospect Rafael Devers gives them the lift that Andrew Benintendi did a year ago, the continued third-base interest is presumably for a fallback option."
http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0681627950893766155-4
I have a feeling just about everything is being considered by a full staff of seasoned professionals. Try not to worry so much.
Barring an extremely noteworthy 1B acquisition this is probably spot on. It would be one thing if Moreland had sucked all year or didn't want to be here, but essentially screwing him over a bad month and in the name of a Lucas Duda isn't really how this ownership generally operates (regardless how much I would really really like to see it happen anyway, mind you). If he can't go back in a trade the forced DL or bench him stuff isn't happening either.
If anything I'm worried DD is going to end up trading Groome+ for his flyer reliever. I don't see him holding out for a 3B option that just isn't really there, and I'm left guessing that if a Chavis package was going to get that reliever it would of already happened by now.
Okay great, should we keep posting or just shut the board down?
Back on topic, the most constant element of the Dombrowski era is bluntness. If you hear they are looking at RP's and 3B, then they are looking for RP and 3B. If they say they need a left handed first baseman, then they'll sign a left handed first baseman.
I just hope they don't fail to fill a need because they don't see it as a need. That's a legitimate concern.