Hayward to Boston...Really, We Mean It
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That's a long way away with tons of variables between then and now.
Are they re-signing any of IT, Bradley or Smart? If you have two of those guys on the team along with Hayward/Horford, you probably can't use the full MLE and would have to use the taxpayer MLE. If you have only one of those guys, you might be able to use the MLE, but you'd probably get a worse player than either of the two guys you let go.
I don't think the MLE is going to be a big deal for a while anyway. If you're Golden State or Cleveland, you might get a ring chaser worth more to take it. For everyone else, I think you're still getting bottom of the roster types. I'd be surprised if they were able to land anyone that would make the top 8 of their rotation.
This seems like a better place for this..
What is the consensus on what Millsap will reasonably get as a 33yo FA? As far as I can tell, the C's can get surprisingly close to having the space for him and hayward if they (A) renounce everyone (olynyk, young, mickey, jackson, zeller), and (B) trade both AB and Crowder for future picks to some team under the cap. Including Zizic (~1.4m), Yabu (~2.3m), and Fultz's hold (~7mil), that'd put them at 57m, with 43m under the cap. Assuming Hayward gets a max (starting at ~25m this season), they've got 18m to play with. If they could somehow get Fultz signed quickly at ~6mil that frees up another 1m, getting them to 19m free. Could you structure a multi-year deal that would fit with that, and that would be tempting to Millsap?
The big problem, aside from needing to pull some cap magic, is that it leaves them pretty thin at the bottom of the rotation, in case of injuries, etc. But the top 10 is pretty solid:
Fultz/Smart
IT/Rozier
Hayward/Brown
Millsap/Yabu
Horford/Zizic
It doesn't feel particularly likely, but it also doesn't feel quite as impossible as I had assumed.
What is the consensus on what Millsap will reasonably get as a 33yo FA? As far as I can tell, the C's can get surprisingly close to having the space for him and hayward if they (A) renounce everyone (olynyk, young, mickey, jackson, zeller), and (B) trade both AB and Crowder for future picks to some team under the cap. Including Zizic (~1.4m), Yabu (~2.3m), and Fultz's hold (~7mil), that'd put them at 57m, with 43m under the cap. Assuming Hayward gets a max (starting at ~25m this season), they've got 18m to play with. If they could somehow get Fultz signed quickly at ~6mil that frees up another 1m, getting them to 19m free. Could you structure a multi-year deal that would fit with that, and that would be tempting to Millsap?
The big problem, aside from needing to pull some cap magic, is that it leaves them pretty thin at the bottom of the rotation, in case of injuries, etc. But the top 10 is pretty solid:
Fultz/Smart
IT/Rozier
Hayward/Brown
Millsap/Yabu
Horford/Zizic
It doesn't feel particularly likely, but it also doesn't feel quite as impossible as I had assumed.
Thanks for the answer. Here's to hoping one of these Nets picks turns in to a top 10 player
Haywards max is going to be a little over 30M. Without making any other moves, they'll have to renounce everyone and move one of Smart/Jae/Avery just to fit Hayward. To fit Millsap as well you'd have to hack up the whole core of the team unless he took a very deep discount.
This is incorrect. They have to clear about 4million in salary. Can be done in a variety of ways that dont involve moving one of those 3 off the roster.
Edit: along with renouncing everybody.
If the cap comes in slightly higher than expected, they should be able to clear enough space for Hayward with just moving Mickey and Rozier.
And in this scenario you could see both those guys go on draft day deals for some future picks which still leaves their team in tact until free agency opens. Then they can reevaluate if they hit or miss on Hayward or Blake.
And in this scenario you could see both those guys go on draft day deals for some future picks which still leaves their team in tact until free agency opens. Then they can reevaluate if they hit or miss on Hayward or Blake.
Do you know when the final cap determination will be made? I can't easily find a specific date.
The salary cap won't be set until the league audit is finished. This occurs during the moratorium period. I believe that this year's moratorium period is July 1-11 (https://bbs.hupu.com/5941111.html) so the audit should be complete and the final salary cap issued on or before the 11th.
Teams can start signing FAs on the 12th.
Just as point of reference, in 2015, the cap was projected around $67.1M and ended up being $70M. For 2016-17, the NBA had projected to cap to be $92M in April, but sent out a memo in June 2016 revising those projections to $94M and it ended up at $94.143M.
The current NBA projections for 2017-18 are $101M (down from an earlier projection of $102M). If I were a betting man, I'd bet that it would be under $102M.
Chris Forsberg ESPN Staff Writer
One day after Celtics All-Star Isaiah Thomas followed potential free agent Gordon Hayward on Instagram, teammate Al Horford did the same Wednesday. The real question is whether the Celtics can now convince Jae Crowder to do the same (Crowder didn't like when Celtics fans cheered Hayward last season).
One day after Celtics All-Star Isaiah Thomas followed potential free agent Gordon Hayward on Instagram, teammate Al Horford did the same Wednesday. The real question is whether the Celtics can now convince Jae Crowder to do the same (Crowder didn't like when Celtics fans cheered Hayward last season).
It would have to come in significantly higher than expected for that to happen.
Mickey is already non-guaranteed, so I'm not counting him anyway.
Including the Celtics 7 guaranteed contracts, Demetrius Jackson who will save no cap space to release, holds for Zizic/Yabusele/#1 and a 800K cap charge for an empty roster spot puts Boston at approximately 74.1M.
Trading Rozier for futures only clears 1.2M to put them at 72.9M.
To fit Hayward in at the max in that scenario, the cap would have to come in at over 104M.
If the cap comes in anywhere near the expected 101M, they'll have to move someone making Smarts' 4.5M or more to fit Hayward in at the max, unless they convince Yabusele to stay overseas another year.
I know his contract his very favorable so wouldn't the move be to find someone to take Crowder for future picks given that he and Hayward are both threes if the latter is actually a viable target. And that is before even contemplating how Crowder reacted to the Garden cheering Hayward earlier in the year - I can't imagine he will be welcoming Gordon to the team.
Perhaps. But the Celts would still not have a viable PF on the team, and Hayward can play SG as well as SF.
If this team does get Hayward it means significant minutes will be going to Zizic and Yabu. I guess they could trade Crowder or Smart for a more traditional PF, but AB would probably already be gone to clear up salary for Hayward. Crowder seems like he would have a role barring a trade for a big. I don't think Hayward makes him completely redundant.
Not completely redundant but certainly marginalized and I think he would bring back the most given his contract. I'm ok the camp that I don't really want to see them commit max money to IT, so I'd rather keep AB, and thus my view is probably skewed as such.
I'd expect Crowder to continue to both start and close games for the Celtics with Hayward, and he would see no real minutes reduction. With Hayward, we are probably playing a Warriors style small ball game most of the time. I think once a vision like that is made clear to him, he jumps on board with the acquisition. If you assume that IT, Smart, Crowder, Hayward, Brown, Fultz, and Rozier are going to play most of the minutes at the 1-4 instead of the 1-3 it gets a lot easier to understand how this roster works with Hayward.
An IT, Fultz/Brown, Hayward, Crowder, Horford lineup will be pretty much impossible to defend. Not Warriors level impossible, and not as good defensively either, but still really strong offensively.
It's June.
Assuming Fultz is drafted you will have a trade chip in Avery (or Marcus, or Terry) in addition to Crowder. Zizic should at least give you what Amir did last year......if he makes the same leap from the previous year he's going to do some special things.
Could any money be cleared by signing guys for less than their cap holds? Is that realistic? Likely? Does the timing work?
This is why Avery is the one who figures to be the odd man out and not Rozier IF Hayward is an option. There is significant savings to move Avery for a lottery pick this year or a protected one next especially if Ainge already knows he doesn't want to sign his piece of glass to a 4/$100m deal.
No.
The only cap holds I figured in were the draftees. I'd assume they are all getting the standard 120%.
To get to that cap space number, I renounced everyone else with a cap hold. Any signing would cut into the cap space even more.
I think fit-wise, the guy to go if they needed space is Smart or IT. What I've seen of Fultz, admittedly not a ton, I think he needs the ball in his hands. Looks to excel in the pick and roll. IT needs the ball to be at his best and Smart needs the ball, just because he's much better as a playmaker than a shooter. Avery is the only true guard they have that plays best off the ball.
If they've decided they're going to pay IT and let Avery walk, it does make sense to trade Avery. Just don't like the team balance nearly as much without him.
Would Avery plus one of Rozier/Smart/Crowder be enough to land a pick in the 5-8 range this year? Would love to have a shot at drafting Isaac but not passing up on Fultz at 1.
Isaac is refusing to work out below 4, which seems like an indicator he has a promise from the Suns.
That is the opposite of what this would mean. The purpose of a team offering a promise is to shut them down from working out for teams drafting ABOVE them so he doesn't show off his skill for them to steal him away.
Not working out for teams in Issac's range sounds to me like his agent Jeffrey Wechsler is protecting Isaac from something whether it is medical or otherwise is anyones guess. So much gamesmanship with these agents leading up to the draft it's all speculation.....the only thing I'm certain of is that there isn't a promise below 4 as that isn't how the promise works.
You know something that is great about Gordo? He doesn't bitch and moan after every single trip to the hoop or shot. Yes, the officiating during the entire playoffs this past year was horrible, but watching these guys bitch after every single whistle or non-whistle is getting old. And that goes for IT4 as well.
I was just throwing IT in there not to sound like a hypocrite. Guess y'all saw through that.
I don't know if it was that I was paying more attention last year, but Gordon seemed to have more confidence and take over games more last year. Age and talent will do that for you.
I don't know if it was that I was paying more attention last year, but Gordon seemed to have more confidence and take over games more last year. Age and talent will do that for you.
Celtics won't have to recruit their main target on the road this year. According to source, Hayward plans to visit each candidate city.
Order of Meetings for Gordon Hayward: Heat on Saturday, Celtics on Sunday(presumably), Jazz on Monday.
http://www.sltrib.com/sports/5454880-155/jazz-hayward-to-have-free-agency
http://www.sltrib.com/sports/5454880-155/jazz-hayward-to-have-free-agency
Interesting that the Boston visit didn't get a report, but the others did... Maybe Tuesday even?
Seems odd that the Celtics don't have a date lined up.
Does Sunday morning make sense?
Well, yes and no.
If they lose out on Hayward, Griffin will almost certainly get a look. The C's can then use some combo of picks and players to seek upgrades away from Hayward and/or George. All the while, they still have a treasure trove of picks and some potential young pieces in Brown and Tatum as well as the core of the team that made it to the ECF last year.
Given where this franchise was ~five years ago, they are currently in a good position. If they get an opportunity to assemble a roster that can win now, they can take advantage. On the other hand, if George forces his way to Houston or Hayward signs there or elsewhere, you can argue that the Celtics aren't missing out because they still have to wait for the Warriors to unwind and/or other new super-teams to flame out.
I will say that I tend to agree with you in that the C's best case of landing Hayward and another star is unlikely at this point.
So if the Celts don't get their top target again this year (assuming Durant was top target last year) after reaching the ECF, will Danny and company just continue to build through the draft?
To put it another way, Danny won't trade assets or waste cap room on middling upgrades, correct?
I tend to agree that Danny has done a great job maintaining flexibility while restoring the team to its winning tradition.
Honest question - from a basketball perspective, why would Gordon choose the Heat over the Celtics? Is there a basketball reason?
The Celtics have more talent, better future assets, and the better coach.
To put it another way, Danny won't trade assets or waste cap room on middling upgrades, correct?
I tend to agree that Danny has done a great job maintaining flexibility while restoring the team to its winning tradition.
Honest question - from a basketball perspective, why would Gordon choose the Heat over the Celtics? Is there a basketball reason?
The Celtics have more talent, better future assets, and the better coach.
The weather and lifestyle are better, the Heat were actually a very good team as we all know during the second half of the season (best record in the east for the last 41 games as we all know) and the franchise features Pat Riley. While I agree that Stevens is the better coach, I am admittedly biased by being a C's fan. The truth is that Spoelstra is a damn good coach with a proven track record of doing well with both super-teams and teams filled with non-superstars.