Evaluating the 2017 Red Sox

This is sort of concerning

he was at 100+ pitches anyways after the inning? I don't understand

Well, if the Red Sox win the World Series this year perhaps Price will opt out after finally getting his ring.

Call me paranoid but:

"It has nothing to do with my elbow"

Makes me very nervous

charlieoscar said:

Well, if the Red Sox win the World Series this year perhaps Price will opt out after finally getting his ring.

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Opt out isn't until after the 2018 season. And unless he's pitching well, he's not going to throw $120+ million away because he doesn't like Boston.

In short, the Sox winning this year could not be more removed from the decision Price will eventually make.

Devizier said:

Call me paranoid but:

"It has nothing to do with my elbow"

Makes me very nervous

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I'm pretty sure this blister is an issue.

I don't think I saw one change up, which was his best put away pitch last year.

Average Reds said:

Opt out isn't until after the 2018 season. And unless he's pitching well, he's not going to throw $120+ million away because he doesn't like Boston.

In short, the Sox winning this year could not be more removed from the decision Price will eventually make.

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Oh, golly, gee, I never knew that. Just think, he'll have another year to try if the Red Sox fail to win it all this year. I got the feeling that he doesn't care for it here and if he gets his ring maybe he'll decide that the $90 million the Red will have paid him through the end of the 2018 season might be enough. Price is just another example of the ineptitude of the Red Sox trying to buy pennants instead of trying to rebuild.

Cracked fingernail would be the "another" thing Price was referring to last night. When it rains, it pours.

charlieoscar said:

Oh, golly, gee, I never knew that. Just think, he'll have another year to try if the Red Sox fail to win it all this year.

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It was hard for me to believe that you wouldn't have known it, but it's hard to tell from the quality of your posting when you are serious or not.

I got the feeling that he doesn't care for it here and if he gets his ring maybe he'll decide that the $90 million the Red will have paid him through the end of the 2018 season might be enough. Price is just another example of the ineptitude of the Red Sox trying to buy pennants instead of trying to rebuild.

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Your assertion about ineptitude is debatable. Surrounding that assertion with idiocy - sarcastic or serious - does not make your case. Especially in the main Red Sox forum.

Average Reds said:

It was hard for me to believe that you wouldn't have known it, but it's hard to tell from the quality of your posting when you are serious or not.

Your assertion about ineptitude is debatable. Surrounding that assertion with idiocy - sarcastic or serious - does not make your case. Especially in the main Red Sox forum.

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Too afraid to think outside the box, big boy?

Ineptitude? Let's think about that. We could start with the "ace" they signed to a $217 million deal whose managed to go 2-2 this year. Then there are two "top" relievers who can't pitch. There is a player making $11M this year for Pawtucket who they couldn't trade even up and they don't bother to call up. Oh, and another one making $11M with Pawtucket who they can't afford to trade because of all the money they owe him. They have a player who couldn't play left field so they moved him to first and now he can't play there; only DH, and not all that well. They have a third baseman that isn't even an AAAA level anymore and no one to replace him. They have a shortstop who has a good bat but is not a good fielder and a second baseman they gave an extension into his late 30s but is having more and more trouble staying on the field. The club is last in the majors in turning DPs and tied for second from last in HRs. Their farm system has been mostly stripped.

As you probably won't like this response either I will ignore anything further comments from you.

Holy crap a team that inept must be in last place.

You have identified some real problems, obvious issues that everyone knows about but whatever, but they are still one of the top teams in the league and if some things go right they could improve from what they've been so far.

Calling that inept is a stretch but I've seen enough of your posting to know that you should be ignored anyway.

charlieoscar said:

Too afraid to think outside the box, big boy?

Ineptitude? Let's think about that. We could start with the "ace" they signed to a $217 million deal whose managed to go 2-2 this year.

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What the hell are you talking about?

David Price was the seventh best pitcher in the AL last year. He's the fourth best pitcher in baseball from 2014-16. Better than Chris Sale. That includes the year you seem so disappointed with him.

He was hurt this year for the first time in his career, which is a thing that happens to pitchers — as well as any human being in any job. He's had one great start, one bad start, and four decent starts since. The best thing everyone could do is leave him alone and let him pitch, and the best thing for the Red Sox is if he stays healthy, does not opt out, and continues to be the borderline HOF-caliber pitcher that he has been his whole career.

Redirect your ire at Shaughnessy and his style of journalism, which depends 100% on finding scapegoats for the reactionary idea that people need to be earning their paychecks at all times or else they are bums.

charlieoscar said:

Too afraid to think outside the box, big boy?

Ineptitude? Let's think about that. We could start with the "ace" they signed to a $217 million deal whose managed to go 2-2 this year. Then there are two "top" relievers who can't pitch. There is a player making $11M this year for Pawtucket who they couldn't trade even up and they don't bother to call up. Oh, and another one making $11M with Pawtucket who they can't afford to trade because of all the money they owe him. They have a player who couldn't play left field so they moved him to first and now he can't play there; only DH, and not all that well. They have a third baseman that isn't even an AAAA level anymore and no one to replace him. They have a shortstop who has a good bat but is not a good fielder and a second baseman they gave an extension into his late 30s but is having more and more trouble staying on the field. The club is last in the majors in turning DPs and tied for second from last in HRs. Their farm system has been mostly stripped.

As you probably won't like this response either I will ignore anything further comments from you.

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I'll miss your intelligent commentary.

Not taking sides, but Chawson has a point. The Red Sox have $42.5 million in payroll tied up in unproductive assets (counting Sandoval, but not Price.) The Milwaukee Brewers total payroll is $63 million. Sure, the Red Sox "can afford it," but that's still a lot of "ineptitude," nearly all of which occurred on Ben Cherington's watch.

*wrong thread*

dhappy42 said:

Not taking sides, but Chawson has a point. The Red Sox have $42.5 million in payroll tied up in unproductive assets (counting Sandoval, but not Price.) The Milwaukee Brewers total payroll is $63 million. Sure, the Red Sox "can afford it," but that's still a lot of "ineptitude," nearly all of which occurred on Ben Cherington's watch.

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How many big money free agents do the Brewers sign each offseason? You can't lose a game you don't play. They have Eric Thames, who was a bargain basement miracle for them, but I doubt they were willing to sign a $20 mil a year player but thought he was better. They signed him because he was cheap and filled out a roster, and got lucky. The other former free agent on the team is Matt Garza, who they signed to fill out their rotation back when they were trying to be competitive. Then they have Ryan Braun, who they resigned back during their competitive period and now probably wish they hadn't. He's getting $20 mil a year, has played at a 1 WAR pace, and been injured. So maybe their low budget has just saved them from themselves.

I didn't mention the Brewers payroll to suggest anything regarding their success or failure at signing free agents or at anything, frankly. Just putting the $42.5 million of unproductive payroll in context.

dhappy42 said:

I didn't mention the Brewers payroll to suggest anything regarding their success or failure at signing free agents or at anything, frankly. Just putting the $42.5 million of unproductive payroll in context.

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I was just trying to make a point that a lot of free agent contracts don't work out as intended, and that the more money you have to spend, the more you try to spend to be competitive, the more free agents you sign, and the more mistakes you might have on your roster. If you make a mistake on drafting or developing, the players never get to the majors. There is no one sitting on your roster with a giant cost associated with them to symbolize the total cost of that mistake. (Although in a way a crappy free agent contract to fill a given position can stand in for that)

It's rather remarkable. Boston is 8th in the AL in runs scored, dead last in home runs, 9th in slugging, have the worst 3b production in the majors, are 12th in fielding, have had huge injury issues in the starting rotation and bullpen (Price, Wright, Rodriguez, Thornburg, Smith), have gotten bad seasons so far from Porcello (5.06 era) and Price (4.61 era), have had key underperforming players (Pedroia, Betts), and are, as of this morning, 1 game up on the Yankees in first place in the AL East, with the 2nd best record in the AL. How in the world are they doing it?

1. Chris Sale. Total stud at the top of the rotation.
2. Enough complementary starting pitching. Just enough from Rodriguez, Pomeranz, etc., to help the team starting era be really good.
3. Kimbrel. Total stud at the back of the bullpen.
4. Solid years from other bullpen guys.
5. Just enough offense here and there.

It hasn't been pretty for the most part. But this team has the potential to really start clicking. Since May 20 they have gone 23-14 (.622), and have gone from 4.5 games back to 1 game up on NY.

All things considered, not too bad so far.

Leaving aside 3B (I know, I know), the team has tremendous balance offensively. The 7 remaining regulars (Pedroia, X, Betts, Benny, Hanley, Moreland, JBJ) all have OBPs between .344 and .371. Vazquez at .324 is probably better than any of us expected, and is the AL average OBP.

BaseballJones said:

It's rather remarkable. Boston is 8th in the AL in runs scored, dead last in home runs, 9th in slugging, have the worst 3b production in the majors, are 12th in fielding, have had huge injury issues in the starting rotation and bullpen (Price, Wright, Rodriguez, Thornburg, Smith), have gotten bad seasons so far from Porcello (5.06 era) and Price (4.61 era), have had key underperforming players (Pedroia, Betts), and are, as of this morning, 1 game up on the Yankees in first place in the AL East, with the 2nd best record in the AL. How in the world are they doing it?

1. Chris Sale. Total stud at the top of the rotation.
2. Enough complementary starting pitching. Just enough from Rodriguez, Pomeranz, etc., to help the team starting era be really good.
3. Kimbrel. Total stud at the back of the bullpen.
4. Solid years from other bullpen guys.
5. Just enough offense here and there.

It hasn't been pretty for the most part. But this team has the potential to really start clicking. Since May 20 they have gone 23-14 (.622), and have gone from 4.5 games back to 1 game up on NY.

All things considered, not too bad so far.

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Yeah, i think these are very good points. And even with all the crap in the first paragraph going on, it's not like they've been coasting by on luck, as their pythag record is equal to their current record (according to b-ref).

And as bad as 3B has been and was feared/expected to be heading into the season, it's also worth noting that any team is going to have problems when its top 4 options at a position get hurt (Panda, Holt, Rutledge, Hernandez).

This last run by starting pitchers is giving us a taste of what a playoff bound team looks like.

Starter - earned runs allowed (working backwards from today):
0
3
3
4
0
1
3
2
3
2
3
2
3
7
1
1
3
3
5
5
3
3

so, other than some Porcello fails, the starters have rarely given up more than 3 in the past 22 games.

Cherry-picking some League stats for starters:

Have given up the fewest walks
Have recorded the most strikeouts
Have the best DIP%
Lead the league in "quality starts" (I know...)

Some things to be optimistic about, considering Price's late start, Wright and Rodriguez going down, etc.

A 46-35 record at the halfway mark is way better than we had any right to expect, given the flu outbreak, Spinal Tap drummers at 3B, still no Smith/Thornburg, etc.

AB in DC said:

A 46-35 record at the halfway mark is way better than we had any right to expect, given the flu outbreak, Spinal Tap drummers at 3B, still no Smith/Thornburg, etc.

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In a month, we're going to get the best third baseman Blake Swihart can buy, have the best record in the AL the second half, and play in an EPIC LCS against the Astors.

It'll be great.

Then we will crush the Vanderbilts!

A road trip that started with the potential to be a defining separation in the division race in our favor flamed out, as the offense went back to its familiar struggles and the bullpen sprung a couple leaks.

DD got Pomeranz right after the ASB last year. I have a feeling he'll make a move for 3B or a bullpen arm very soon this year.

Other then Price going down for an extended time frame and the crap hand we got dealt with Thornburg, I'm not left complaining too much about bad luck/breaks going in to the break. Injuries are going to happen, and I really didn't have Wright making too much of a difference over what we ended up getting anyway.

All things considered and while off-setting some of our give with the take, I'd honestly say that we are pretty much sitting right where we should have been going in to the season. The best team in the AL East, but not quite the that much better then everybody else many had hoped/predicted.

This team and lineup especially is going to look a lot better on paper next year with Moustakas (who is going to be checking off a lot of DD's boxes as a FA) manning 3B and Devers at first though.

Bob Nightengale‏Verified account @BNightengale 1m1 minute ago
The Boston #RedSox,would like a package deal from #Marlins, where they not only acquire 3B Martin Prado, but also reliever David Phelps.

grimshaw said:

I'm happy with the first half, and think they'll improve because:

-Rodriguez will be back and Price is hitting his stride.
-There are very likely acquisitions coming with a 3b hole that is easy to upgrade
-They have dominated at home and have 40 more as opposed to 31 on the road.
-Lots of games left (13) with the Jays, who seem to suck and could be even worse if they sell -though they do have 14 left with the Yankees.

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I'd also add Porcello getting back into the swing of it. Unlikely he'll be as good as he was last year, but his last few outings have been promising. I'll take Fister as an addition to the bullpen (who goes?) and I'll even live with Lin and Merrero at 3rd.

The offensive inconsistency still has me concerned for playoff level.... but there doesn't seem to be any correspondence to the offense going soft against top notch pitching. It seems totally random (and typing this w/o any looks at actual numbers heading out the door for the day).

Price: 3.91 era, 1.26 whip, 8.5 k/9

If you eliminate his one awful start (6 runs in 5 ip on June 8), his line becomes: 3.19 era, 1.15 whip, 8.6 k/9

And in his last six starts (since that June 8 outing), his line is: 3.00 era, 1.31 whip, 8.8 k/9

So he's actually been really solid but for that one start. We kind of kill him around here but he's been very good.

Porcello's last 4 starts: 3.71 era, 1.09 whip, 8.1 k/9. Pitching 6+ innings every single time out. Not a CYA guy, but he's been pretty solid too.

Pomeranz' last 5 starts: 1.82 era, 1.05 whip, 7.6 k/9. He's been really good.

Sale's last 7 starts: 2.72 era, 0.89 era, 12.3 k/9. Just fantastic after that one bad start in Chicago.

So the rotation is really doing well, and Rodriguez will be returning and taking Fister's place, adding another quality arm. If the offense can just improve a little...this team could roll.

Trotsky said:

I'd also add Porcello getting back into the swing of it. Unlikely he'll be as good as he was last year, but his last few outings have been promising. I'll take Fister as an addition to the bullpen (who goes?) and I'll even live with Lin and Merrero at 3rd.

The offensive inconsistency still has me concerned for playoff level.... but there doesn't seem to be any correspondence to the offense going soft against top notch pitching. It seems totally random (and typing this w/o any looks at actual numbers heading out the door for the day).

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I was looking at his numbers this morning and I agree. Tons of Ks and low walks per usual. Eating a ton of innings too. I expect a strong second half from pork chop.

aksoxfan said:

Then we will crush the Vanderbilts!

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we need a "like" button...

Rasputin said:

In a month, we're going to get the best third baseman Blake Swihart can buy

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At this point, that might indeed be Martin Prado. And I might even be OK with that trade. How have the mighty fallen.

Savin Hillbilly said:

At this point, that might indeed be Martin Prado. And I might even be OK with that trade. How have the mighty fallen.

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Just imagine if DD didn't trade NL MVP Candidate Travis Shaw for a half a bag of peanuts.

BigChara33 said:

Just imagine if DD didn't trade NL MVP Candidate Travis Shaw for a half a bag of peanuts.

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If he didn't, he'd have done some other equivalently bad thing. Better the evil you know...

Sox looking pretty good starting the 2nd half. As for the offensive woes, there must be at least 3 starting position players due for a positive regression. Hanley is the poster child, but maybe Moreland's injury heals a bit over the break, and either X or AB get hot.

Looking at the record through the All Star Break, and the ROS schedule

Overall record: 50-39
Home record: 25-14
Road record: 25-25
Record vs teams that finished first half <.500: 35-22
Record vs teams that finished first half >.500: 15-17
Home record vs <.500: 18-8 (.692)
Road record vs <.500: 17-14 (.548)
Home record vs >.500: 7-6 (.538)
Road record vs >.500: 8-11 (.421)

ROS home games: 42
ROS road games: 31
ROS vs <.500: 37
ROS vs >.500: 36
ROS home games vs <.500: 22
ROS home games vs >.500: 20
ROS road games vs <.500: 15
ROS road games vs >.500: 16

Some quick analysis: The Red Sox built their 50-39 record by playing and winning lots of games against sub-.500 teams. They played 57 games against sub-.500 teams, winning 35, losing 22. They played only 32 games against plus-.500 teams, going 15-17.
The second half offers the benefit of a home heavy schedule - 42 home vs 31 road games. However the area where the Sox really dominated - playing sub-.500 teams, isn't a second half advantage, with 37 games against sub-.500 and 36 games against plus-.500.
Against the AL East, the Sox went 6-7 against BAL, 5-6 against TB, 1-4 against NYY and 5-1 against TOR (all on the road), for a total against the division of 17-18. They have 14 games left against the Yankees and 13 (10 at home) against Toronto.
If they played the remaining schedule to the same winning percentages as the first half (yes, unlikely), that would extrapolate to the following: 15-7 at home vs <.500, 11-9 on road vs <.500, 8-7 at home vs >.500, 7-9 on road vs >.500. ROS total of 41-32, season total of 91-71.
I'd like to see them play better against the division and against the >.500 teams on the schedule, particularly the Yankees in both cases.

Your thoughts?

The key thing is going to be beating up on Toronto and Baltimore. More than a quarter of the Sox' remaining games--19 of 73--are against those two teams, 13 of them at home. Both teams have train-wreck rotations (well, with Toronto maybe it's a mild to moderate derailment more than a downright wreck). We should be able to punish those staffs at Fenway, and take maybe 9 or 10 of the 13 at home while at least splitting on the road, for an overall record of about 13-6 vs. those teams. If we can do that, we only have to play slightly above .500 ball against everybody else (28-26) to hit that overall 41-32 mark.

Gotta do better against Yankees and Rays.... those wins are double helpings.