Who's on Third? I don't know

paulb0t

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I don't recall an injury to Shaw last year. He played nearly 150 games and never missed more than 3 games in a row all year. He did bat well under .200 over the last two months of the season so if he had been replaced by Aaron Hill (or by anyone else) no one should have complained that the Sox were trying someone else, least of all Travis Shaw. "Can't find it" and "I forget" are lousy support for an argument. Baseball reference is an easily searched site to see what games a player played and if he missed time due to an injury and how they played over discrete periods of time.
I was all for the Shaw for Thornburg trade at the time (hindsight!), but Shaw did get banged up in mid-July last year. Pretty bad foot contusion (or, as bad as they can be?) that he said was making it hard to get lift off. He didn't get DL'd for it, but I think it might've played into his second half down turn. I also thought his first half was a mirage, so hindsight got me twice.
 

InsideTheParker

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I don't recall an injury to Shaw last year. He played nearly 150 games and never missed more than 3 games in a row all year. He did bat well under .200 over the last two months of the season so if he had been replaced by Aaron Hill (or by anyone else) no one should have complained that the Sox were trying someone else, least of all Travis Shaw. "Can't find it" and "I forget" are lousy support for an argument. Baseball reference is an easily searched site to see what games a player played and if he missed time due to an injury and how they played over discrete periods of time.
I know, and I guess I shouldn't post, b/c summer is my busiest time. I have so much to do in the garden and processing strawberries, I am exhausted. He had an injury to his foot in early July. X-rays negative.Lots of players do play hurt----note Moreland this year, and their production is often hurt by it, even if they don't go on the DL. As for the remarks about Thornburgh and Smith, earlier in the year, when I had more time, I looked and couldn't find who had made those remarks. But I know that I either read or heard both of them. Edit: Sorry for the repetition, I see paulb0t covered the injury.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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So Shaw was hurt and he hit well below .200 the last third of the season AND he complained about Aaron Hill getting too much of his playing time?

Sounds like two or three reasons to move on from the guy.

Of course we'd be better off with him this year than with Sandoval but he didn't show anything the second half of last year to suggest that he was going to perform as he has.
 

Plympton91

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So Shaw was hurt and he hit well below .200 the last third of the season AND he complained about Aaron Hill getting too much of his playing time?

Sounds like two or three reasons to move on from the guy.

Of course we'd be better off with him this year than with Sandoval but he didn't show anything the second half of last year to suggest that he was going to perform as he has.
How'd Aaron Judge do in the second half of last season? Too bad the Yankees didn't take that small sample size and trade him for a middle reliever.

Rookies generally have long periods in which they struggle. Hell, a prime of his career Wade Boggs once hit .256 for an entire season. 75 points below the preceding and succeeding seasons. Baseball is random like that.

As MIkeM has been pointing out, Defense also matters. Shaw proved he could be adequate there over long stretches of full time play, no one else had.

Ultimately, forget about the names, the stats, the hindsight knowledge. They traded a potential starting 3rd baseman who could also backup 1st, with power, and 5 years of control (plus 3 prospects) for one middle reliever.

Defend that.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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They had Panda who was going to be healthy and they had to give him a real chance.

Judge had a higher upside, hit much better than Shaw did in the 2nd half of 2016, and middle relief wasn't what the Yankees needed. He's also more than one year behind Shaw, if you want to try to compare them as "rookies" you can't. Shaw played over 60 games in 2015, Judge played fewer than 30 in 2016. The Sox had a decent idea of what Shaw could provide and decided it wasn't enough.

If Thornburg was Thornburging you wouldn't even be in this thread.

I hope you come back here when Shaw regresses. You can't really believe he's going to have an All Star level career
 

Plympton91

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They had Panda who was going to be healthy and they had to give him a real chance.

Judge had a higher upside, hit much better than Shaw did in the 2nd half of 2016, and middle relief wasn't what the Yankees needed. He's also more than one year behind Shaw, if you want to try to compare them as "rookies" you can't. Shaw played over 60 games in 2015, Judge played fewer than 30 in 2016. The Sox had a decent idea of what Shaw could provide and decided it wasn't enough.

If Thornburg was Thornburging you wouldn't even be in this thread.

I hope you come back here when Shaw regresses. You can't really believe he's going to have an All Star level career
There was nothing precluding them from having Shaw and Panda on the roster for a couple days until Panda went down with his latest pulled fat.

You keep going back to Shaw's offensive potential, and ignoring the fact that he was also far and away the best major league ready defender at the position, which is why they kept playing him last season over Holt and Hernandez.

Not sure why you're so invested in defending DD on this trade. It was a farce from the beginning. Shaw for Thornburg straight up would have been a mistake. To then add three more prospects just compounds the absurdity.
 

InsideTheParker

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Lose, I did expect Shaw to rebound, because of what I saw when he got everyday play before his July injury.
If he regresses, I'll be very sorry for him and for the Brewers. Will you be happy? In any case, I'll come back to this thread and say, "Yes, you were right, he regressed two seasons in a row." Will you come back if he doesn't? And I did hope the Sox would get good things from Thornburg, because they need an 8th inning guy.

p.s. You might be right that the Yankees didn't think that they needed middle relief. They could use some now.
 

luckysox

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I was a fan of the trade, mostly because I wasn't a fan of Shaw grousing when he lost playing time once his stats came plummeting back to Earth, and because I thought we needed to replace Koji and Thornbug looked like a better bet than Barnes or Joe Kelly. But looking at this rationally now, it's a tough pill to swallow. Hindsight, etc., but I do wonder if my displeasure with his attitude made it easier to believe in Panda. Of course, I also believed in Holt and Marco to some extent. I think the trade is super difficult for any of us to see with clear vision because of what has happened to 3B form an injury perspective. Earlier this season, I denigrated Devin Marrero in a game thread...now I literally get giddy when I see his name in the lineup because...well shit, there is no
one else left who can field the position.
 

DanoooME

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There was nothing precluding them from having Shaw and Panda on the roster for a couple days until Panda went down with his latest pulled fat.

You keep going back to Shaw's offensive potential, and ignoring the fact that he was also far and away the best major league ready defender at the position, which is why they kept playing him last season over Holt and Hernandez.

Not sure why you're so invested in defending DD on this trade. It was a farce from the beginning. Shaw for Thornburg straight up would have been a mistake. To then add three more prospects just compounds the absurdity.
Except DD was trying to fill a hole in his team (middle relief) while trading from perceived excess (whether it ended up being true or not). At that point of the winter, he had Pablo, who was going to start no matter what because of that contract, Shaw, Holt, and Hernandez available to play 3rd. Shaw had the most trade value of those options, so he tried to turn that into MR help. It hasn't worked out. Guess what? That happens with all teams. Things don't always work out as planned. It looks like a shitty trade now, but things can change. And it's likely they won't. But the process made sense. No one knew that the top 3 options would ALL be out at this point.

Congratulations on getting your new axe to grind now that Jacoby Ellsbury's career has (predictably) fallen off of a cliff.
 

charlieoscar

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How people could have looked at Sandoval's numbers from ages 24 to 27 without trepidation is beyond my comprehension:
Year -- OPS
2011 -- .909
2012 -- .789
2013 -- .758
2014 -- .739 and in each year his batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage declined. Not only that but his fielding was dropping off.
 

pokey_reese

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I hope you come back here when Shaw regresses. You can't really believe he's going to have an All Star level career
To be fair, he can regress to below All Star level and still be a.) a valuable major league regular for cheap over many years of control, and b.) still a hell of a lot better than Panda/Marrero. Including his terrible second half last year, and great first half this year, he now has over 1,000 PAs in the majors, and has actually been pretty consistent in terms of BB and K rates, with a BABIP in the normal range all three seasons, and slightly above average defense. Sure, his value in a given season will fluctuate with ISO a bit as a power hitter, but it's hard to doubt that he has pop, or that his glove is about average.

If he is what his career says to this point, about a .265/.325/.470 hitter with a decent glove, that makes him about a top-15 3B. That has a lot of value in a vacuum, and a ton of value specifically to the Red Sox, even including regression.
 

chawson

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How people could have looked at Sandoval's numbers from ages 24 to 27 without trepidation is beyond my comprehension:
Year -- OPS
2011 -- .909
2012 -- .789
2013 -- .758
2014 -- .739 and in each year his batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage declined. Not only that but his fielding was dropping off.
Imagine where we'd be today if it had occurred to someone to sign third baseman Hanley Ramirez to play third base.
 

Plympton91

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Except DD was trying to fill a hole in his team (middle relief) while trading from perceived excess (whether it ended up being true or not). At that point of the winter, he had Pablo, who was going to start no matter what because of that contract, Shaw, Holt, and Hernandez available to play 3rd. Shaw had the most trade value of those options, so he tried to turn that into MR help. It hasn't worked out. Guess what? That happens with all teams. Things don't always work out as planned. It looks like a shitty trade now, but things can change. And it's likely they won't. But the process made sense. No one knew that the top 3 options would ALL be out at this point.

Congratulations on getting your new axe to grind now that Jacoby Ellsbury's career has (predictably) fallen off of a cliff.
It looked like a shitty trade from the moment it was announced. The only reason anyone on this Board is arguing any differently is because of hometown bias or ignorance. A starting third baseman and 3 other prospects for a middle reliever. If this were the MLB forum and that trade had been made by any of 29 other GMs the trade would be a SoSH punchline.
 

charlieoscar

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Imagine where we'd be today if it had occurred to someone to sign third baseman Hanley Ramirez to play third base.
And this means what?

Ramirez's only year of playing third before he played 4 innings for the Red Sox in 2015 was 2012 when he played in 90 games for Miami (89 starts and 82 complete games) and 8 games (8 GS and 7 CG).
 

Cesar Crespo

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How people could have looked at Sandoval's numbers from ages 24 to 27 without trepidation is beyond my comprehension:
Year -- OPS
2011 -- .909
2012 -- .789
2013 -- .758
2014 -- .739 and in each year his batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage declined. Not only that but his fielding was dropping off.
outside of 2011, almost all of that could be explained by the league wide drop off in offense. And most people here hated the signing the day it happened anyway.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Pablo was going to be given every chance to succeed at 3B. I don't think even his biggest doubters thought he would be this bad this soon.
Behind him: one of the better utility guys in the league, a young utility guy they seemed to like based on his role coming into the season, a young defense-first utility guy, and two AAAA filler guys (including Dominguez). It seems perfectly plausible to expect a .700-ish OPS from Rutledge and Hernandez, which seems right in line with a 3rd and 4th option. I don't see how you could objectively say Marco was dreadful at 3B with the sample size available. No one was counting on him to be a starting third baseman, but counting on him to be a useful utility player and short-term fill-in seems like exactly what one should have counted on. That leaves out that one of the top prospects in baseball was starting the season in AA. No free agent who had the ability to start for a ML team was going to sign here absent a big overpay - which wasn't going to happen. What would you have done?
Nothing. I liked the Shaw trade. I just don't think Marco Hernandez should be counted on for anything.
 

joe dokes

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Given Shaw's performance in 700 PAs at AAA, I thought where he ended up last year -- 89 OPS+ -- was who he is. Perhaps not. But at the time, I didn't think that moving on from that was a big deal.
Even an in-decline Sandoval put up 111 OPS+ in his last year with SF. In better shape and injury free, I thought he could be around where Shaw was. Perhaps not.
 

Average Reds

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It looked like a shitty trade from the moment it was announced. The only reason anyone on this Board is arguing any differently is because of hometown bias or ignorance. A starting third baseman and 3 other prospects for a middle reliever. If this were the MLB forum and that trade had been made by any of 29 other GMs the trade would be a SoSH punchline.
Teams often times make one-sided deals when they are working from a (presumed) position of strength and dealing to fill a hole. However, the fact that they are giving up "more total value" than they are receiving does not necessarily mean it's a shitty trade.

That said, you went on record at the time and you have been proven right. However, your compulsion to label all who disagree with you as somehow defective might be something you want to consider leaving in V&N.
 

charlieoscar

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outside of 2011, almost all of that could be explained by the league wide drop off in offense. And most people here hated the signing the day it happened anyway.
There wasn't a complete drop in offense in the NL because it went from .710 to .718 from 2011 to 2012. But the fact of the matter is that his age went from 24 to 27 in that period. Shouldn't a player be getting better (at least compared to league-average) as he approaches his "prime" years?

It's too bad the team didn't ask the board.
 

chawson

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grimshaw

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Byrdbrain

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Well I guess that explains why they haven't brought up Devers yet.

Edit: It seems Dombrowski just said Devers is "real close" to Pawtucket. I would think they'd want to at least give Peralta a few weeks to show if he has anything left.
 

InsideTheParker

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Assuming Peralta will be useless, Jon Heyman just mentioned the possibility of the Sox going after Solarte at the break. Does he know the guy is on the DL with an oblique strain? (I don't know how long those take to get all better, but it doesn't sound good.)
 

chawson

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Assuming Peralta will be useless, Jon Heyman just mentioned the possibility of the Sox going after Solarte at the break. Does he know the guy is on the DL with an oblique strain? (I don't know how long those take to get all better, but it doesn't sound good.)
Solarte would seem to fit with an organizational shift toward hitting for contact. He's got a 86.1% contact rate from 2015-17, 3rd among MLB third basemen with >300 PAs.

This may be noise, but Sox are 3rd in MLB in contact % this year (80.1 — behind only the Astros and Indians). In 2016 they were 1st in MLB (81.6%). It's hard to tell with the strike zone and juiced ball dynamics, but it may be a DD-era thing. In 2014, the last full Cherington year, the Sox were 10th (80.3%). In 2013, they were 16th (79.7%).

Relevant players (2016-17 unless otherwise noted):

Aaron Hill – 84.7% (2015-16)
Peralta – 81.5%
Moustakas – 80.9%
Sandoval – 80.7% (15-17)
Shaw – 78.5% (2015-16)
Frazier – 74.8%
 
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grimshaw

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From what I have gathered from Olney, Dave Cameron and in Jeff Sullivan's fangraphs chat today Todd Frazier will be relatively cheap to acquire.

"PTBNL: Any thoughts on what kind of talent the Sox would have to give up to land Frazier or Moustakas? They need help at 3B but Dealin’ Dave has already ravaged the minor league system.

Jeff Sullivan: Todd Frazier’s a contract-year player with a 93 wRC+. He’s not going to cost a whole lot."

It seems like a buyer's market for 3b due to a lack of need combined with there being several options out there.

Most playoff contenders are set at 3b

Yanks - Headley. They could be the competition but Headley and Frazier have had similar performances this year, though Frazier has the upside.
Indians - Ramirez
Cubs - Bryant
Dodgers - Turner
Rockies - Arenado
D-Backs - Lamb
Brewers - Shaw
Twins - Sano
Rays - Longoria
Nats - Rendon
Astros - Bregman has struggled, but they hardly need an offensive upgrade. and he is still developing.
Rangers - Gallo and Beltre

I could see the Royals hanging onto Moustakas if they think they're in it. The Mariners have Seager who has underachieved, but his track record is solid and he was all-star like last year.
The Angels could improve on Escobar but it's really a matter of time before that team collapses.

Even potential also-rans are very set (Machado and Donaldson).

I would be shocked if the Red Sox don't get who they want for an at best B prospect.
 
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moondog80

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Moustakas is having a very good year, my guess is the Royals could safely offer him the QO, which means any offer would have to beat the compensation pick.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
The Mariners have Seager who has underachieved, but his track record is solid and he was all-star like last year.
The context makes this a bit confusing--are you saying that Seager's solid track record means the Mariners won't sell him, or that they won't be looking to replace him if they turn out to be buyers? I think both are true, but I wasn't sure which you meant.
 

grimshaw

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The context makes this a bit confusing--are you saying that Seager's solid track record means the Mariners won't sell him, or that they won't be looking to replace him if they turn out to be buyers? I think both are true, but I wasn't sure which you meant.
I meant the former but agree both are true. They need him. I was just adding the M's to the list as potential playoff contenders.
 

MikeM

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Do you have some viable alternatives?
Considering they have to fit a very specific criteria here, namely minor league deals and/or guys with options (barring going big we can't risk forcing our hand on Pablo's roster spot), it's not like beggars can be choosers either.

Still not getting this as anything more then a pure depth move though, as he's not even really a good fit to platoon with Pablo once he's back again given those terrible splits against lefties recently. As bad overall as Marrero has been at the plate, he's at least showed up there (.348/.360/1.230 in 25pa)
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Teams often times make one-sided deals when they are working from a (presumed) position of strength and dealing to fill a hole. However, the fact that they are giving up "more total value" than they are receiving does not necessarily mean it's a shitty trade.

That said, you went on record at the time and you have been proven right. However, your compulsion to label all who disagree with you as somehow defective might be something you want to consider leaving in V&N.
Uh, has he been proven right? There's still four years of control left on both players and a lot to be hashed out before we can make any kind of grade on it, no? It's certainly not working out this season, but that doesn't mean it ends up a bad trade and thats before we even get into the prospects cited.

If Thornburg is what he was and Shaw is what is was, then the other prospects exceeding their ceiling is the only thing that really makes this a bad trade. Homerism isn't the issue here, nor is the amount of 'prospects' sent. They are not all equal.
 

Plympton91

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No, PP, you're wrong. The first three months of the trade are all that matters to make a definitive statement on the failure of the deal.

See: Ellsbury, Jacoby.
The deal is good or bad at inception, irrespective of what happens later on. David Price was a good move that isn't working out quite as well as we hoped. This deal was terrible ex ante. That it isn't working out at all due to an injury is just the fresh turd in the old shit sandwich.

Again, please name all the other times a team has traded a starting position player and 3 prospects for a single middle reliever (from the National League, no less) and been praised for the move on SoSH? The answer is "Never."

As to those looking for patience with Thornburg, please provide a list of all the pitchers who've successfully recovered from surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Matt Harvey is a shell of what he was.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Again, please name all the other times a team has traded a starting position player and 3 prospects for a single middle reliever (from the National League, no less) and been praised for the move on SoSH? The answer is "Never."
I think most people here would agree that if there had been no ambiguity whatsoever at the end of last year about the applicability of the bolded phrase to Travis Shaw, it would have been an obviously bad deal.
 

Byrdbrain

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I think most people here would agree that if there had been no ambiguity whatsoever at the end of last year about the applicability of the bolded phrase to Travis Shaw, it would have been an obviously bad deal.
I don't really see the point of rehashing the deal again but if we must this is the key. The Sox obviously didn't view Shaw as a starter and neither did most here. After an additional half a season of data if appears we may have been wrong about that.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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The deal is good or bad at inception, irrespective of what happens later on. David Price was a good move that isn't working out quite as well as we hoped. This deal was terrible ex ante. That it isn't working out at all due to an injury is just the fresh turd in the old shit sandwich.

Again, please name all the other times a team has traded a starting position player and 3 prospects for a single middle reliever (from the National League, no less) and been praised for the move on SoSH? The answer is "Never."
"And the trades were done on a Tuesday"?

Your parameters are ridiculous. And trades are not judged on your reaction (or my reaction) on the day they are made nor on how they fail or succeed over the first three months. This trade surely looks like a failure so far but the joy here is that we have a few more years to really figure that out!

And to answer your question, look at the Thornburg trade thread itself to see if a trade like that has ever been praised.
 

nvalvo

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As to those looking for patience with Thornburg, please provide a list of all the pitchers who've successfully recovered from surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Matt Harvey is a shell of what he was.
The injury has ended a lot of pitching careers, including those of Chris Carpenter, Shaun Marcum and Noah Lowry. You're right that it's a pretty grim prognosis.

But, depending on what you consider successful:
  • Chris Young, the pitcher has had two good years and two bad ones since TOS surgery.
  • Josh Beckett made 20 starts for the Dodgers after TOS surgery at a 120 ERA+, before a different injury ended his career.
  • Jaime Garcia is still pitching decently, and had his best year after TOS surgery.
  • Mike Foltynevicz had surgery in 2015; now pitching well in Atlanta.
 

dhappy42

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Bogaerts' two error, one mistake night tonight (Angels, 6/24) and his mediocre play at SS in general makes me think he might be the answer at 3B.
 

Average Reds

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Uh, has he been proven right? There's still four years of control left on both players and a lot to be hashed out before we can make any kind of grade on it, no? It's certainly not working out this season, but that doesn't mean it ends up a bad trade and thats before we even get into the prospects cited.

If Thornburg is what he was and Shaw is what is was, then the other prospects exceeding their ceiling is the only thing that really makes this a bad trade. Homerism isn't the issue here, nor is the amount of 'prospects' sent. They are not all equal.
To me, the answer is clearly yes. But what makes it a yes isn't the relative value that has changed hands, but the underlying premise that we did not need third base depth and were dealing from strength.

I do believe that the deal was defensible at the time and recoil from P91's assertion that anyone with this position is somehow defective. But Panda's (predictable, in retrospect) collapse as an effective MLB player leaves no doubt that the deal was a bad one, no matter how well Thornburg does. (IMO, of course.)
 

richgedman'sghost

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You honestly want to DFA Xander? I must have misread you...What are you smoking? Do you mean DFA Rutledge? That makes more sense but he is on the. DL. Can the Red Sox punish him for not reporting his symptoms? You think he could learn from Brick Holt about the seriousness of concussion symptoms.