The 2017 system: What do we have here (really)?

grimshaw

grimshaw

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After Kopech departed in the Sale trade, I was one of many who thought the system aside from Devers and Groome was completely empty. There were some interesting arms in the lower minors, but no one that necessarily stood out as having a ton of upside.

But this year seems to be a different story. Outside of the obvious prospects (Groome and to a lesser extent Lakins) there are many arms that are starting to emerge. I'll go to lowest to highest ranked from Soxprospects.

Ty Buttrey. OPS against of .577 and 27 k's in 19.2 innings. Repeating AA, but taking a big step forward. His k/9 was 5 last year and is at 12 this year. Could be a case of him outclassing the level in his second year but that is a pretty big jump though in a SSS.

Stephen Nogosek - OPS against of .548 and 31k's in 22 innings. 22 and in Greenville.

Jamie Callahan - recently bumped up from AA where he had an .OPS against of .383 with 14k/9. Struggling a bit in AAA, but just a few innings so far. He's just 21 but could certainly make the team at some point

Darwinzon Hernandez - OPS against of .595. 11 k/9. Currently on the DL in Greenville. Just 20 years old.

Shaun Anderson - recently promoted from Greenville where he had an .OPS against of ..640 and 9k/9. He has struggled in Salem. He is 22.

Mike Sharwyn - had one awful outing which skews his .640 OPS against, but he has a dominant 13k/9 and has taken a big step forward. 22 in Greenville.

Jalen Beeks - OPS against of .604 and 10k/9. 23 and in Portland. He has credited his improvement from dropping his slider and adding a cutter Not out of the realm of possibility that he gets a September visit.

Lastly is Bryan Mata who was signed as an IFA. He was just assigned to Greenville at age 18 and may have the 2nd highest upside in the system, but is the most raw.

Beyond that there are high floor low ceiling guys like Roniel Raudes and Jake Cosart who haven't gotten it going this year. And Trey Ball, is Trey Balling.

All of these pitchers are either age appropriate or younger for their level.

Positionally it is still extremely thin, but Michael Chavis is knocking on AA with 24 extra base hits, and Devers AAA.

What do others think?
 
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Cesar Crespo

Cesar Crespo

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They have positional talent. Many of them just got off to a slow start and they aren't big names. Ockimey, Tyler Hill, Lorenzo Cedrola, Roldani Baldwin, Lin, Kemp, Sam Travis are all players having mildly successful to successful seasons to date and are all age appropriate.
 
grimshaw

grimshaw

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Blanked on Kemp. He's been fun to follow. I know very little about the non-1B guys aside from Linsanity.
 
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Plympton91

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I didn't realize Callahan was only 21. That makes him a much better prospect in my eyes.
 
Quintanariffic

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Almost a distinction w/o a difference for a relief prospect. He's still at an age-appropriate level, if not even a bit ahead of the curve now that he's at AAA.
 
Savin Hillbilly

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bosox79 said:
They have positional talent. Many of them just got off to a slow start and they aren't big names. Ockimey, Tyler Hill, Lorenzo Cedrola, Roldani Baldwin, Lin, Kemp, Sam Travis are all players having mildly successful to successful seasons to date and are all age appropriate.
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But how many of them really have a ceiling of league-average starter or better?

Seems to me we're currently deep in two areas--corner infielders and back-of-rotation/middle relief arms--and either alarmingly shallow (potential #3 or better SP) or just plain weak (OF, middle infield, C) everywhere else. The good news is that the places where the system is strongest are exactly the places where the big club needs help soonest, and vice versa. But boy, if I were Scott Boras or whoever Mookie's agent is these days, I would be rubbing my hands in glee looking at this system, because Bradley, Betts and Bogaerts are really in the driver's seat as far as negotiations--there's nobody in the system breathing down their neck, or likely to be anytime soon.
 
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StevieNick8

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May 22, 2017
9
grimshaw said:
After Kopech departed in the Sale trade, I was one of many who thought the system aside from Devers and Groome was completely empty. There were some interesting arms in the lower minors, but no one that necessarily stood out as having a ton of upside.

But this year seems to be a different story. Outside of the obvious prospects (Groome and to a lesser extent Lakins) there are many arms that are starting to emerge. I'll go to lowest to highest ranked from Soxprospects.

Ty Buttrey. OPS against of .577 and 27 k's in 19.2 innings. Repeating AA, but taking a big step forward. His k/9 was 5 last year and is at 12 this year. Could be a case of him outclassing the level in his second year but that is a pretty big jump though in a SSS.

Stephen Nogosek - OPS against of .548 and 31k's in 22 innings. 22 and in Greenville.

Jamie Callahan - recently bumped up from AA where he had an .OPS against of .383 with 14k/9. Struggling a bit in AAA, but just a few innings so far. He's just 21 but could certainly make the team at some point

Darwinzon Hernandez - OPS against of .595. 11 k/9. Currently on the DL in Greenville. Just 20 years old.

Shaun Anderson - recently promoted from Greenville where he had an .OPS against of ..640 and 9k/9. He has struggled in Salem. He is 22.

Mike Sharwyn - had one awful outing which skews his .640 OPS against, but he has a dominant 13k/9 and has taken a big step forward. 22 in Greenville.

Jalen Beeks - OPS against of .604 and 10k/9. 23 and in Portland. He has credited his improvement from dropping his slider and adding a cutter Not out of the realm of possibility that he gets a September visit.

Lastly is Bryan Mata who was signed as an IFA. He was just assigned to Greenville at age 18 and may have the 2nd highest upside in the system, but is the most raw.

Beyond that there are high floor low ceiling guys like Roniel Raudes and Jake Cosart who haven't gotten it going this year. And Trey Ball, is Trey Balling.

All of these pitchers are either age appropriate or younger for their level.

Positionally it is still extremely thin, but Michael Chavis is knocking on AA with 24 extra base hits, and Devers AAA.

What do others think?
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This is a great example of why we have unnecessarily included good depth prospects in trades. For example Dubon would be great to have, especially with the Pedroia injury. And a guy like Logan Allen would be nice to have kept out of the Kimbrel trade.
 
Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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StevieNick8 said:
This is a great example of why we have unnecessarily included good depth prospects in trades. For example Dubon would be great to have, especially with the Pedroia injury. And a guy like Logan Allen would be nice to have kept out of the Kimbrel trade.
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And how do you know that they were unnecessary?
 
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StevieNick8

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May 22, 2017
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Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
And how do you know that they were unnecessary?
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Should have clarified here, I think that the Sox should have included a lesser prospect than Dubon, and don't think it was necessary to have all 4 prospects in the Kimbrel trade. It would have been nice to have those guys back as I did not agree with the Thornburg deal.
 
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Plympton91

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Oct 19, 2008
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StevieNick8 said:
Should have clarified here, I think that the Sox should have included a lesser prospect than Dubon, and don't think it was necessary to have all 4 prospects in the Kimbrel trade. It would have been nice to have those guys back as I did not agree with the Thornburg deal.
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What does "don't think it was necessary" mean in this context? Do you think Dave Dombrowski just gave up a better/additional prospect because he's a nice guy and wanted to help out the other GM's? Do you think waiting out/playing hardball would have resulted in the price going down?

I agree the Thornburg trade seemed ill advised from the start, but not because of Dubron, rather because they traded a starting 3Bman for a relief pitcher.
 
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StevieNick8

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May 22, 2017
9
Plympton91 said:
What does "don't think it was necessary" mean in this context? Do you think Dave Dombrowski just gave up a better/additional prospect because he's a nice guy and wanted to help out the other GM's? Do you think waiting out/playing hardball would have resulted in the price going down?

I agree the Thornburg trade seemed ill advised from the start, but not because of Dubron, rather because they traded a starting 3Bman for a relief pitcher.
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I think that waiting out and playing hardball would have caused the price to go down. I thought fair market value would have been to leave out those prospects in the deal, or at least replace those prospects with a lesser prospect.
 
Snodgrass'Muff

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Mar 11, 2008
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StevieNick8 said:
I think that waiting out and playing hardball would have caused the price to go down. I thought fair market value would have been to leave out those prospects in the deal, or at least replace those prospects with a lesser prospect.
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The Red Sox should fire Dombrowski and hire you. You might not be hero this franchise deserves right now, but you're the hero this franchise needs.
 
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Bob Sacamento

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Aug 31, 2014
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joe dokes said:
Broke Saccomanno'a record. I wonder if he eats horses, too.
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Yeah come on man, I sold replica Russian hats made of nutria in Battery Park, there was also that rabies scare I had along with the hernia screw up so now I just sit in a chair by the window repeating "My name is Bob!" in a high-pitched voice.

BTW: Groome pitched in EXST on Monday and is slated to pitch again this Saturday
 
Sox Puppet

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PaulinMyrBch said:
Here's a good article on what Chavis has done so far this year and comparison to some other guys that have done well at Salem. We've heard of a few of them.
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Long-term, what are the odds that we see Devers at 1B and Chavis at 3B on the big-league team? Assuming those two have a higher upside as hitters than Sam Travis (who, I know, most people are pretty high on), though neither one has a reputation for sterling defense at 3B.
 
chilidawg

chilidawg

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Sox Puppet said:
Long-term, what are the odds that we see Devers at 1B and Chavis at 3B on the big-league team? Assuming those two have a higher upside as hitters than Sam Travis (who, I know, most people are pretty high on), though neither one has a reputation for sterling defense at 3B.
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Seems consensus is that Devers has looked pretty good at 3rd, although he may out grow it physically long term. Doesn't seem Chavis has a position he can field competently yet, but he sure is hitting.
 
Cesar Crespo

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Sox Puppet said:
Long-term, what are the odds that we see Devers at 1B and Chavis at 3B on the big-league team? Assuming those two have a higher upside as hitters than Sam Travis (who, I know, most people are pretty high on), though neither one has a reputation for sterling defense at 3B.
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I'd guess Chavis would be the one who moves off 3rd and it might not be to 1b either. He has the arm and speed to potentially play in the OF and since he was once a SS, maybe even 2b. Devers is far more limited. I'd also guess Chavis and Devers get promoted after the 1st half.
 
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