Who's on Third? I don't know

shaggydog2000

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I think it's getting pretty close to the time when you promote Devers to AAA. Considering how much he's dominated his level and been improving as the year has gone on, I don't know how much longer I'd make him stay in AA. I personally would be more cautious about bringing him right up to the majors, because this level of patience and power is new for him, even though he was always seen as having the potential for both, and because of his age and limited level of experience. But the Sox have actual scouts and scouting reports, so they have more info to make a decision with.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
The error thing is a SSS unless you think they will make 53 errors over the course of the season.
Not as farfetched as you think, at least in Rutledge's case. His career sample is admittedly small (231+ innings total), but his suckitude has been pretty steady within that small sample. He came into 2017 averaging 41 errors per 1300 innings (+/- 145 games) at third base; so far he's jacked that up to 45.

More evidence is probably needed, but the word "butcher" is starting to come to mind.
 

grimshaw

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Not as farfetched as you think, at least in Rutledge's case. His career sample is admittedly small (231+ innings total), but his suckitude has been pretty steady within that small sample. He came into 2017 averaging 41 errors per 1300 innings (+/- 145 games) at third base; so far he's jacked that up to 45.

More evidence is probably needed, but the word "butcher" is starting to come to mind.

I think the word "butcher" came from Butch Hobson's 30 errors in 1980.
53 combined errors has possibly happened before. I'll look around.

My point is more that you can't hold down a job as a starter if your error pace is going to be that high, which is why he is somehow, someway a fill in. The defense is going to be fixed well before then. That's a big reason whyCabrera came to Boston and replaced Nomar who had completely lost it in the field and become a "fatal flaw" according to Theo. That's why Marrero is there now.

Edit: Robin Young had 44 at SS in 1975. Sheffy had 34 his last season at 3b. More recently, Semien had 35 at SS, but he could hit so kept his job. Most error leaders between 1942 to present were between 25 and 35.

Before 1942 it got to 60+ even 70. So who knows if they were that terrible or if official scorers were bribed by hitters.
 
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Byrdbrain

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Plouffe got an every day starting job in Oakland why would he have come to Boston to be Pablo insurance?
Pablo starts his rehab tonight he'll get at least one more chance to see what he can do. I have no faith he is still an above average player but maybe he can be only slightly below average which is better than what they've gotten.
Who knows what is going to happen with Holt but if he can come back he should at least be serviceable.
Dominguez is giving no indication that he can hit so if you are going to have a guy who can't hit I'd just as soon have it be a guy like Marrero who we know is a great fielder no matter what was said up thread.
Nearer the deadline if none of this has sorted itself out and if the Sox are still in it a guy like Frazier should be available relatively cheaply.
I don't want to see the Sox trade away what little they have in the minors for what could be a small upgrade. At the same time get Devers up to AAA in the next month or so and see if he forces his way on the roster, if not let him learn the game in Pawtucket.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Travis is currently hitting at a 252/319/379 clip in AAA
3 days later, that same Sam Travis is slashing .299/.359/.479. 11/19, 2 doubles, 2 hrs in his last 20 PA. We are still dealing with SSS. That slash line puts him in line with the rest of his career. His combined line at AAA is now .283/.343/.452 over the course of 318 PA.
 

MikeM

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3 days later, that same Sam Travis is slashing .299/.359/.479. 11/19, 2 doubles, 2 hrs in his last 20 PA. We are still dealing with SSS. That slash line puts him in line with the rest of his career. His combined line at AAA is now .283/.343/.452 over the course of 318 PA.
Which is still a long ways from actually securing the 2018 starting gig here outright imo. Again, especially considering the surrounding circumstances of the situation.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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The pipeline of kids at third are pushing for a level promotion. Devers and Chavis will both be advancing a level soon I would think. Chavis has 2 more HR's tonight and per Alex Speier:

"Chavis is 2nd in MiLB in slugging and OPS. More HR (10) and XBH (24) than he had in 81 games in 2016. K% way down, BB% way up in 2017."
 
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kazuneko

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SSS alert but Tzu-Wei Lin has begun the season like a different player at AA Portland. Prior to this season, the previously slap-hitting Lin was mostly known for his defense at SS. Now, after an apparent shift in approach he's all of a sudden become a fly-ball machine and already has more homers this season than he's ever hit in any previous season. .
Per Carson Cistulli at Fangraphs:
"Listed at 5-foot-9 and 155 pounds, Lin doesn’t possess the trademark physicality of those major leaguers — Josh Donaldson, J.D. Martinez, et al. — who’ve become evangelists of the fly ball in recent years. And yet, after posting ground-ball rates in the 50-55% range over the course of his career, the 23-year-old has recorded just a 29% mark so far this season — i.e., one of the lowest figures in all of Double-A. At the same time, however, he’s retained his better-than-average bat-to-ball skills. The result? Probably the optimum combination of contact rate and batted-ball type across the level. The early returns have been exceptional. Over 81 plate appearances, Lin has produced a .214 isolated-power mark — a figure that’s roughly three times his career figure — while also recording a strikeout rate (18.5%) a couple points lower than the Eastern League average. All of this, one notes, from a player who’s recorded strong numbers at shortstop as a professional.

It's probably way to soon to be thinking about Lin in Boston but if he were to continue his breakout season you'd have to think he'd eventually get consideration for a promotion. With Boston's black hole at 3b and his strong defense it wouldn't take much with the bat for him to outperform other internal options..
 
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Cesar Crespo

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They've already tried LIn at 3b and it was an absolute disaster. He's been playing a bit of CF though.
 

Wayapman

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These may be totally farfetched ideas but.....does Texas have any inclination to deal Beltre due to Gallos emergence? If so what kind of package would it take?

Another idea could be making a play for Jed Lowrie to come back and play 3rd
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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These may be totally farfetched ideas but.....does Texas have any inclination to deal Beltre due to Gallos emergence? If so what kind of package would it take?

Another idea could be making a play for Jed Lowrie to come back and play 3rd
Is Gallo 'emerging'?

The HRs are nice and his slugging % is good, but his OBP is .303, he's striking out in 45% of his ABs and his K/BB is 3:1. BA is antiquated of course, but he's hitting sub .190.

He's as boom as bust as they come. I would think that when Beltre is healthy, he gets his job back pretty quickly for a team that looks competitive in the wild card race.

Lowrie is another case. No idea what he would cost but there's always the injury concern with him. Not sure I'd want to spend any prospects on a guy who has played in 100 games twice in a 10 year career. Same old same with him I think, too many eggs in a brittle basket.
 

grimshaw

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Is Gallo 'emerging'?

The HRs are nice and his slugging % is good, but his OBP is .303, he's striking out in 45% of his ABs and his K/BB is 3:1. BA is antiquated of course, but he's hitting sub .190.

He's as boom as bust as they come. I would think that when Beltre is healthy, he gets his job back pretty quickly for a team that looks competitive in the wild card race.
He really is. The next highest k% of all time for a 3b is Miguel Sano at 35%. Below him are guys like Reynolds, Russell Branyan, Pedro Alvarez and Mark Bellhorn. The only "great" player (in quotes since he's done it for a few years) at 3b with a k% over 25% is Kris Bryant.

That said - he has played well enough to stick and I think they'll try and make room for him.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I was looking at Rafael Devers career numbers do date and noticed something alarming.

vs R: 1080 PA, .307/.356/.508, 34 HR 6.9% BB rate, 15.4% K rate, .201 ISO.
vs L: 430 PA, .258/.323/.345, 2 HR 9.3% BB rate, 18.1% k rate, .093 ISO.

This year, he's at .297/.409/.323 vs L with 0 HRs. Last year, all 11 HRs were off RHP. All 7 HRs this year are vs RHP. The last HR Rafael Devers hit against a left handed pitcher was 8/14/2015. That was over 230+ PA ago. We may want to pump the brakes before calling him up. Or at least find a platoon partner.
 

Al Zarilla

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I was looking at Rafael Devers career numbers do date and noticed something alarming.

vs R: 1080 PA, .307/.356/.508, 34 HR 6.9% BB rate, 15.4% K rate, .201 ISO.
vs L: 430 PA, .258/.323/.345, 2 HR 9.3% BB rate, 18.1% k rate, .093 ISO.

This year, he's at .297/.409/.323 vs L with 0 HRs. Last year, all 11 HRs were off RHP. All 7 HRs this year are vs RHP. The last HR Rafael Devers hit against a left handed pitcher was 8/14/2015. That was over 230+ PA ago. We may want to pump the brakes before calling him up. Or at least find a platoon partner.
What's the ratio of RHP to LHP though? Sandoval had a pretty good overall career until he came to Boston without being able to hit LHP.
 

Cesar Crespo

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What's the ratio of RHP to LHP though? Sandoval had a pretty good overall career until he came to Boston without being able to hit LHP.
Roughly 25-30%. It's been dropping though. http://www.vocativ.com/315557/left-handed-pitchers-disappearing/

He's 20 years old...
Right. That coupled with his struggles against left handed pitchers is more than reason enough to give him some more PA in Portland and/or Pawtucket. He has things to work on despite his success. The trend is also positive, and if nothing else, he gets on base.

vs LHP
2014 72 PA .200/.333/.267
2015 145 PA .252/.297/.356
2016 169 PA .278/.355/.371
2017 44 PA .297/.409/.324
 

foulkehampshire

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Roughly 25-30%. It's been dropping though. http://www.vocativ.com/315557/left-handed-pitchers-disappearing/



Right. That coupled with his struggles against left handed pitchers is more than reason enough to give him some more PA in Portland and/or Pawtucket. He has things to work on despite his success. The trend is also positive, and if nothing else, he gets on base.

vs LHP
2014 72 PA .200/.333/.267
2015 145 PA .252/.297/.356
2016 169 PA .278/.355/.371
2017 44 PA .297/.409/.324
I'm less worried about power against LHP than I am contact, approach. It looks like he's trending in the right direction in those areas, and one would think that he'd be able to tap into his power eventually. If he remains a Brett Butler type hitter vs LHP...that's still damn useful.
 

grimshaw

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Probably something he can work on in AAA. That .409 obp seems like they're pitching around him and it's not really worth keeping him in AA in the hopes he faces lefties. It could be 15 more games for him to get like 10-20 at bats vs them.
 

MikeM

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Panda had two doubles and a walk last night in Pawtucket. Maybe the Devin Marrero nightmare will end soon.
Best case scenario it probably just reignites another debate on whether adding X amount more offense ends up being worth the defensive downgrade.
 

Byrdbrain

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I don't think there is any debate about whether Marrero will be playing 3B when Panda is healthy, he won't be. The guy is OPSing 447 which is just about where you would think he would be based on his minor league stats.
It is highly doubtful that Panda is either but he has been a decent MLB hitter in the recent past and when he is ready to go he will get a chance to play at 3B. Unless an issue popped up that will likely be this weekend.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Best case scenario it probably just reignites another debate on whether adding X amount more offense ends up being worth the defensive downgrade.
My seat-of-the-pants calculations say that even if Pablo is as bad at the plate as he was in 2015, he's still a match in value for Marrero. If he's better, he's an upgrade.

EDIT: I want to add that the current 3B situation really points out the limits of the concept of the "replacement-level player". For the Sox right now, a 0-WAR 3B would be a substantial improvement. But they don't have one.
 

Plympton91

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It would be interesting to see if Marrero registers the defensive stats to be a 0 WAR player even with his offense at basically historically bad levels. This is not a stupid organization, and they have Dominguez, who is competent at 3B and a better hitter. They have Witte, who's probably not a good 3B but looks like he can hit lefties at least pretty well.

So why do they keep Marrero around? Their proprietary systems must have him as off the charts defensively to the good as he is to the bad on offense.
 

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They're clearly prioritizing defense, at least for awhile, after the disastrous 3rd base defense they've gotten so far this year. Otherwise, they'd probably just play Rutledge, who is a better hitter than Dominguez and Witte. No, Marrero can't hit at all, but he has stabilized the infield defense, which, short term, was important.
 

Byrdbrain

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Yeah it was the right thing to do at the time but that time is nearing the end.
I expect we'll see Rutledge out there shortly if for whatever reason Panda can't come back.
 

BoSox Rule

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I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they just had Devers skip AAA completely. Cherington had Bogaerts get some playing time there in 2013 before bringing him up, but last year Benintendi skipped AAA. Different situations because he was a #7 overall draft pick and a college hitter but Devers adjusts to every level and doesn't have the contact/strikeout issues that Moncada had/has.
 

paulb0t

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Tangentially related, but Brock Holt shut down indefinitely after seeing a head trauma specialist.
 

nvalvo

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I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they just had Devers skip AAA completely. Cherington had Bogaerts get some playing time there in 2013 before bringing him up, but last year Benintendi skipped AAA. Different situations because he was a #7 overall draft pick and a college hitter but Devers adjusts to every level and doesn't have the contact/strikeout issues that Moncada had/has.
Devers is in a slump. He has a .391 OPS in his last 7 games: 5/29 with 2 BB and 4 Ks.
 

gedman211

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13 errors in 30 games at 3rd without Marrero, 0 errors in 17 games with. pretty astounding differential
 

pantsparty

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It seems like this roster can accommodate a dead spot in the lineup better than a dead spot in the field, and Marrero seems like a decent baserunner if somehow he gets on by accident. He looks like the least-bad option, at least until we know what Sandoval is capable of when healthy.
 

sean1562

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what do you think we should do if sandoval comes back and is terrible for a sustained stretch? Release him? Keep him on the roster for another two years?
 

AB in DC

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what do you think we should do if sandoval comes back and is terrible for a sustained stretch? Release him? Keep him on the roster for another two years?
More likely he goes back on the DL for something or other and tried to work out his issues in Fort Myers or something
 

simplicio

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what do you think we should do if sandoval comes back and is terrible for a sustained stretch? Release him? Keep him on the roster for another two years?
If he's actively losing 4+ games per year? Keep him on an indefinite DL or show him the door.
 

RedOctober3829

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deep inside Guido territory
 

Al Zarilla

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I was surprised, even on the side of shocked, we weren't dead last (MLB 3B OPS). My old friends the Giants are saving us from that.
 

Al Zarilla

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So you're saying there's a chance they'll want Sandoval back!?
Ha! That would be cool but I think he shot his way out of town, saying something like he respected only Bochy and Posey on the Giants (not even Pence, Crawford or Bumgarner? Belt?). So, fat chance (pun intended).

In an ideal world, Pablo would come back healthy and give us somewhere near career avg. numbers until Devers is deemed ready. Then what do you do with him?
 

Plympton91

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I wonder if Sandoval is self aware enough to realize the Red Sox are saying he's so bad that they prefer to keep playing a guy with a career OPS of 557 -- In AAA.
 

grimshaw

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Imagine being the Giants, already that terrible at 3b, and then also having a team ops of .594 for all three OF positions combined.

They've been killed by injuries.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Ha! That would be cool but I think he shot his way out of town, saying something like he respected only Bochy and Posey on the Giants (not even Pence, Crawford or Bumgarner? Belt?). So, fat chance (pun intended).

In an ideal world, Pablo would come back healthy and give us somewhere near career avg. numbers until Devers is deemed ready. Then what do you do with him?
Then you trade him while paying 2/3 of his salary for a guy who will never get higher than AA, like usual.
 

dbn

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Ha! That would be cool but I think he shot his way out of town, saying something like he respected only Bochy and Posey on the Giants (not even Pence, Crawford or Bumgarner? Belt?). So, fat chance (pun intended).

In an ideal world, Pablo would come back healthy and give us somewhere near career avg. numbers until Devers is deemed ready. Then what do you do with him?
Indeed, I do recall. A fella can dream, though, can't he?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Ha! That would be cool but I think he shot his way out of town, saying something like he respected only Bochy and Posey on the Giants (not even Pence, Crawford or Bumgarner? Belt?). So, fat chance (pun intended).

In an ideal world, Pablo would come back healthy and give us somewhere near career avg. numbers until Devers is deemed ready. Then what do you do with him?
In that ideal world, he's only got a year left on his deal and might actually have some trade value to someone (as in they can get more than a bag of balls for him).

Devers probably won't be ready until sometime next year. Assuming Sandoval is performing to career average in the meantime, they won't feel the need to rush Devers at all. Maybe a cup of coffee in August/September 2018 then make him the starter in 2019.