Hayward to Boston...Really, We Mean It
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No playoff team is going to have the cap space to sign Bradley to his next deal as a free agent, it's trade for his Bird Rights or find another player.
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There really aren't any playoff teams with picks high enough to make trading it for Bradley enticing to us. We don't want him in the East so the preferred destinations don't begin until OKC at 21 and Utah at 24. The Thunder don't have the necessary expiring contracts for a deal to make sense and Utah has more pressing needs with a bunch of their own young players and Hayward.
A team like Cleveland would have given up their first for nothing to avoid having a worthless guaranteed salary (plus tax) sitting in suit or playing for the Canton Charge of the G-League so it wasn't like they sacrificed actual value for Korver.....instead it was a double win for them in that they actually received a contributor for the worthless (for them) pick.
The only other thing I've been able to come up with is if the Knicks decide to add around Anthony/Porzingis, rather than rebuilding. I think rebuilding is the much better option for them, but if they decide not to, I'd try to package AB+Crowder+BOS 2018 1st+something? for #8. That solidifies their rotation a lot and gives them a huge upgrade at SG, although I think they can only do it if Rose leaves, in which case I don't know who plays PG. For the C's, it frees up the space to go after Hayward, and gives them a pick that could land Isaac/Markkanen to add to the interior rotation with Horford, Zizic and maybe even KO if the numbers work.
This conversation sounds interesting. So Ainge is going to tell Utah to give him a 1st for Bradley so he can create the space to sign their best player? I think Utah would have the leverage there.
Which one? Utah for being receptive or Ainge for being really really kind in suggesting?
The Clippers are going to lose Redick to free agency. Assuming Paul/Griffin don't blow things up by leaving, Bradley to LAC for a future first makes sense. Doc only trades for players he's coached or coached against in the playoffs, and they'll need a 2 guard.
Great point. Doc is a great coach imo having had success in both getting the most out of little talent and managing enormous ego's for multiple contending years. For all his skill on the bench and in the locker room......he may be the least creative General Manager this game has ever seen in acquiring useful pieces of a rotation.
The Clippers only have the cap space to acquire Bradley without sending out salary if they blow it up. If they keep Blake and CP3 they cannot give Boston cap relief. The fact that they are a good roster fit is irrelevant.
That's not an insurmountable problem. It would require adding a third team to the deal who would receive something in exchange for absorbing a contract into cap space. Since this is Doc Rivers we are talking about, LAC might even kick in the compensation.
Huh?
you said this in the post I responded to from just two hours earlier:
"Does CLE have its first round pick this year? Maybe they'd do it but I suspect even they wouldn't.."
Doesn't really square with "sure CLE would do it."
If Boston were willing to move Bradley for just a non-lottery 1st, they easily get it done.
I think even with AB's injury history and contract status, an NBA first team all defensive player who just put up 16.3ppg has value in excess of a mid/late first round pick.
This is a unique trade environment however, where teams in both conferences have to really ask themselves whether trading any future assets is the right move. Toronto's GFIN push was absolutely the right thing for them to do for example, but its got to be painful to then get summarily swept.
There can only be a small number of teams close enough to contention to consider trading a pick, and that are a good fit for Bradley's skills and contract. I don't know the cap situations around the league, but offhand maybe Mil, Philly (if they try next year) or Houston?
I don't agree with this. I don't think you need to be in contention to be willing to move a non premium first round pick. Making the playoffs and/or progress can be important too. As I said earlier, Orlando gave up Oladipo/and #12(with Ilyasova thrown in) for one year of Serge Ibaka. They couldn't have thought that would make them a contender. If a team thinks Bradley could be a piece going forward, having him on your team for a season along with his Bird rights could be valuable. Also, a team with cap space could give him a raise and extend him immediately to lock him up.
Just quickly looking at the draft order, I could see these teams giving up their pick for Bradley.
Detroit at #12 if KCP gets an offer too rich for them to match
Miami at #14 if Bosh gets wiped off their books
Chicago at #16 if Wade opts-out(unlikely)
Indiana at #18 as an effort to build a better team to keep Paul George
Brooklyn at #22 because they stink and can't get anyone good to sign there and
Brooklyn at #27 they'd have space to sign Bradley right away
Utah at #24 or #30 if Hayward leaves
Orlando at #25 if they want to add a pro to their kids, already have pick #6
San Antonio at #29 would likely need help from an under the cap team to fit him
I'm not saying all of these teams happen to like Bradley enough to trade for him, I'm sure not all of them do.
I'm not saying I would trade Bradley in all/any of these deals, I wouldn't.
I'm just saying, if Boston wanted to trade Bradley for just a first round pick, I don't see that being an issue.
Correct. Bradley is not going to be traded to Brooklyn this summer. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot sheesh.
Ainge always thinks one step ahead to take advantage of a team's desperation - that's how he hits home runs on some of his trades. Think Bradley for 2019 1sts from Chicago or Indiana or LA Clippers(gamble that they implode after Butler or PG leave or CP gets old / leaves). Or for Orlando's 2018 1st to gamble that they don't make it out of the lottery. Or Bradley for Lopez (if they strike out on Heyheywood - good risk management to guarantee a top-3 Bkln pick).
Bradley for Lopez isn't even close to working salary wise. It would have to be something like Zeller+AB+Crowder and that's assuming we don't sign Hayward or they move someone else off the books prior to signing Hayward that isn't Zeller, AB or Crowder.
Does Lopez even fit on this Celtics team? I know rebounding isn't everything but a frontcourt of Lopez and Horford would be giving up lots of boards. The spacing would be nice on offense though. He seems similar to KO, really. Just a better scorer.
Certainly guilty of my post not being well written but I thought my point was clear.
I don't think that MIL and IND would trade this year's first for AB. I'll stand by that. Maybe I'm wrong.
In my original post, I wondered whether CLE had a pick and thought it wasn't clear whether they would if they had a pick. They don't have a pick. But since you pointed out that they traded it for 1/2 year of Korver, you are probably right that if they had the pick they'd probably trade it for a year of AB. However, they don't have a pick so that's all academic.
I'm not saying that AB doesn't have any trade value. He's a good player on a reasonable contract. For example, Danny has probably already had discussions about whether he could get a future #1 for AB. It's just the way things are in this year's draft, I don't see DA getting anyone to give up a first round pick in this draft for him like some people were speculating.
Other advantage of that being that you aren't restricted to draft night this year to make such a deal before knowing where things might stand with Hinesward.
The question of course is how desperate would such teams be in terms of protections on that pick. I'd guess lotto-protected at best for a walk year guy.
A first round pick this year is undesirable. They want to cut salary, and that adds an extra cap hold. Also, they will have 3 rookies in need of playing time next year plus Brown. They don't have room for another first rounder. Unless they are trading Bradley for a first rounder to, say, draft and stash Jeanne, it makes little sense to try to get a first this year. They are better off asking for future picks than present picks. Those will be useful to fill out their roster going forward after they are capped out.
Uh oh. From Marc Stein....
Free Agency Scuttle: Volume is rising on the whispers that the team worrying Utah in Gordon Hayward's free agency is Miami as much as Boston
Free Agency Scuttle: Volume is rising on the whispers that the team worrying Utah in Gordon Hayward's free agency is Miami as much as Boston
No, actually, I think the chances of him going to Miami are overblown too -- just reporters looking for a story, any story. One website handicapped it as a 20% chance he would go to Miami, which seems pretty high to me. I can't think of any great reasons for picking Miami over Boston -- the weather and state income tax are most compelling reasons, I think, and they're rather weak.
Income tax in MA is roughly 5%, and you earn half your money at home and half scattered around a hodge-podge of states, so you really only get a discount on the home half of your salary. That's ~5% of $15M, or $750k/yr. Certainly not nothing, but probably dwarfed by other considerations.
plus it's not like states with no income tax don't vrt their tax revenues through some other means such as property taxes or sales taxes. to do an accurate calculation, one would need to look at overall tax burden.
Good point, InstaFace. Also, I probably wasn't clear enough in my original post -- I had read about five articles about this Miami rumor, and was casting about for some reason why it would make sense for Hayward, and one story mentioned the weather and the lack of state income tax. As I recall, the income tax issue also came up with Lebron -- but of course, he's also got all the endorsement deals, so it may be more of a factor there. Still, they seem like not-very-good reasons. So why would he take Miami over Boston? Spoelstra over Stevens? I don't see that. He doesn't have any particular ties to the players either, right? And Boston's future looks much brighter. It just sounds to me like Miami is throwing their hat in the ring for Hayward and some bored sportswriters are trying to milk it for some excitement.
Red Sox fan here in Salt Lake City. Hayward is a stud. I don't think he'll leave the Jazz but if he does we are back 5 years. There are billboards paid for by fans all over the city with "Stayward" urging him not to split. [emoji6]
Not to pick a fight, I actually think the Jazz are better than the Celtics. Not sure they can keep Hill, Ingles, Hood and Hayward. Golbert is going to be the best two way center in the league in a few years. The Jazz were absolutely crippled with injuries this year and playing in the west in tougher than the east.
www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-power-rankings-historic-regular-season-could-hold-promise-for-epic-playoffs/amp/
Not to pick a fight, I actually think the Jazz are better than the Celtics. Not sure they can keep Hill, Ingles, Hood and Hayward. Golbert is going to be the best two way center in the league in a few years. The Jazz were absolutely crippled with injuries this year and playing in the west in tougher than the east.
www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-power-rankings-historic-regular-season-could-hold-promise-for-epic-playoffs/amp/
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Haha right. Cos everyone else looked great against the Warriors. I'm sure the Celtics would have swept them.
The Jazz with Hayward might be better than the Celtics. Might. I'm not actually convinced. But even then, the Celtics without Hayward are nearly as good as the Jazz with. So, the Celtics with Hayward are probably much better than the Jazz with Hayward, and that ignores that the Celtics have a better chance to add good players over the next couple of years.
I'm dreaming of SayHaywouldYouComeHere in Celtic Green and vigorously wish I disagreed with any of that.
Maybe I'm just numbed by the run of non-event trade fireworks, but to me the non-signing GH options all look like running basically the same team back but with Zizic, Fultz and maybe Yabu. I just don't see them dumping the mother load FA contract on the other 'top' players like Griffin, Gallinari, Ibaka...maybe Millsap?
Hard to imagine that team not taking a little step back in wins unless Zizic can hit the ground running, but could sure be a lot of fun to watch if DA has indeed drafted the right players.
Also hard to imagine what might happen if Lebron doesn't win another game and wants his own uber team. Could be seismic, at least for the eastern conference.
Which isn't what I said at all. The Celtics have a clearer path to the finals in the future which may hold some appeal to someone in Hayward's position.
I dunno......I like beautiful winters and no state income tax for half of I'm guessing I'm not alone. Large masses of people leave New England in the winter to live in Florida primarily due to the weather. In fairness, most are older but in general MA residents look for reasons to escape the winters here......it isn't difficult to understand why someone wouldn't want to actually choose to spend winters here. Larry Bird was on the first plane out following his last season and to my knowledge only returned for business trips.
If I had to guess percentages I'll keep Boston at the 15% I've had us at, Miami at 25% because well it's winters in FL, Utah at 55%, and somewhere else 5%.
I think the odds are higher for the Celtics despite the cold weather, taxes and horrific regional accents. The simple reason is that the Celtics have a better chance of competing for a title than the Heat. This isn't to say that Miami cannot win with Hayward but they are more than a few pieces away from being as good as Boston with him.
That said, I think the odds are that Utah retains him. I agree with DublinRedSox in that Utah is a really good team and that core, if they can be kept together, will be a top four or five seed team in the West over the next few seasons.
That said, I think the odds are that Utah retains him. I agree with DublinRedSox in that Utah is a really good team and that core, if they can be kept together, will be a top four or five seed team in the West over the next few seasons.
I've seen a few people talk about this. Would Lebron really have the balls to do this again? Sure, no "Decision" this time around, but if he leaves Cleveland for an engineered super team, he better be damn sure that he never wants to set foot in that state ever again.
I'll go with Utah 50%, Boston 40%, Miami 5%, Other 5%. I doubt he's going to be very interested in Miami, unless he's like a closet paddleboard/surfer freak (and the waves down there mostly suck anyway, unless there's a hurricane approaching). I lived in South Florida for seven years, and educationally, it's kind of barren. Hayward's got two kids and I saw he was on a list of one of the 20 smartest players in the NBA (engineering degree). That sounds to me like a Boston guy, not a Miami guy.
Not to mention BOS in a much better place to compete both now and in the long term.