Is Bogaerts getting a pass?
- Thread starter TheCone
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He's slugging .433 so it's not like he's hitting for an empty .320 and his OBP is .389. He's fine.
He's posting career high OBP and OPS, with slugging slightly under last years mark, not sure we should worry if the ball hasn't left the yard as of yet.
And RBIs are a garbage stat entirely dependent on other factors, so hey shouldn't be included in the conversation.
Last year he slugged .446. This year all the hand-wringing about the lack of HRs has led to a SLG of...433. He's got 4 triples already.
He's got a 120 OPS+ this season, which is excellent and would be by far the highest mark of his career. It's been cold so far this season and he's said he doesn't like the cold much. He's 24 years old and is playing a key defensive position very well.
He's more than fine.
Last year he slugged .446. This year all the hand-wringing about the lack of HRs has led to a SLG of...433. He's got 4 triples already.
He's got a 120 OPS+ this season, which is excellent and would be by far the highest mark of his career. It's been cold so far this season and he's said he doesn't like the cold much. He's 24 years old and is playing a key defensive position very well.
He's more than fine.
I think the topic of X's lack of HR power so far this year is worthy of a discussion but as has been pointed out his overall offensive production has been pretty damned good. I would rather he look to drive the ball a bit more but the results are solid.
Also RBI are only to be used ironically they are not a serious stat and they have no predictive value.
X isn't the first guy to have a lack of HRs obscure his offensive value:
Salty, in 2012, hit 25 home runs and slugged .454. Pretty good for a catcher right? But in 2013 his home run total fell to 14, yet he slugged 466 because his doubles went from 17 to 40 and his BA increased by 50 points.
People really need to stop worrying about HRs from X. He can hit none all season long if he still put up a 120 OPS+.
Salty, in 2012, hit 25 home runs and slugged .454. Pretty good for a catcher right? But in 2013 his home run total fell to 14, yet he slugged 466 because his doubles went from 17 to 40 and his BA increased by 50 points.
People really need to stop worrying about HRs from X. He can hit none all season long if he still put up a 120 OPS+.
Right. If we want to play the "on pace for" game (which is always fun), Bogaerts is on pace for 36 doubles (a career high) and 16 triples (obviously a career high), plus 28 steals (vs. 0 caught stealing). The triples won't last because that would be an insane amount. But the power will come.
Without looking at his home run and rbi totals, I think all of us would have signed up for a slash line of .320/.389/.433/.823 (120 ops+) for his age 24 season.
Without looking at his home run and rbi totals, I think all of us would have signed up for a slash line of .320/.389/.433/.823 (120 ops+) for his age 24 season.
He hurt his thumb sliding into second base very early in the season. At the time it looked like he was really in some serious pain, but all said and done he didn't miss any time. A sore/injured thumb could both linger and sap power. He's fine.
Xander has a .308/.359/.434 (BA/OBP/SLG) slash line over his last 1500+ PA. Lets not forget how lean the position was between most of 2004 -2013.
In an age that's dominated by power pitching, he's downright Jeterian offensively. Not many guys are able to spray contact all over the field like he can. Even the most optimistic projections of Xander didn't really peg him as a perennial 4+WAR SS. He's been able to become a more-than serviceable defensive SS, and seems to get better every year...I thought he'd be shifting to 3B at this point based on scouting reports.
In an age that's dominated by power pitching, he's downright Jeterian offensively. Not many guys are able to spray contact all over the field like he can. Even the most optimistic projections of Xander didn't really peg him as a perennial 4+WAR SS. He's been able to become a more-than serviceable defensive SS, and seems to get better every year...I thought he'd be shifting to 3B at this point based on scouting reports.
That dog doesn't make me askeert.
Xander is also third among AL SSs in fWAR, behind the usual suspects Lindor and Correa. Keep it up, X.
Is there any info out there on the value difference between doubles and HR? Because while 2 doubles and a HR both equal to 4 bags (and thus affect SLG the same, albeit in different numbers of ABs), the HR is a guaranteed score whereas the doubles are not. Not trying to be dense here, but I'm thinking about it in concrete terms--is there more value to hitting 40 doubles and 14 HR, than 28 HR and 12 doubles? There's obviously 14 more hits in the former, but what about from an expected runs perspective?
Xander has also gone through stretches where he seems to have dramatically different hitting approaches (and results). In 2015 he seemed to slap the ball the other way a lot (33.8% pull%) and only had a 4.9% BB rate and 7 HR. In 2016, he walked and pulled the ball more, and hit 21 HR, but his AVG and BABIP dropped, so he ended up with a very similar overall value.
This year, he's kept the walks (he's swinging less often and going deeper into counts), but for whatever reasons is hitting way fewer fly balls but way more line drives than ever before. The result is that he's getting on base so much that this is by far the best wOBA he's put up even without the HR. Since getting on base is the most important contribution a hitter can have, his BABIP doesn't look wildly unsustainable and he's still hitting a good number of XBH, I'm pleased.
This year, he's kept the walks (he's swinging less often and going deeper into counts), but for whatever reasons is hitting way fewer fly balls but way more line drives than ever before. The result is that he's getting on base so much that this is by far the best wOBA he's put up even without the HR. Since getting on base is the most important contribution a hitter can have, his BABIP doesn't look wildly unsustainable and he's still hitting a good number of XBH, I'm pleased.
I want Bogaerts to hit a home run for the sole reason that Dave O'Brien - who is obsessed with home runs - will finally stop saying "Maybe THIS is the night Xander will hit his first home run of the season."
This is exactly the kind of calculation that goes into the wOBA (and therefore wRC+) formula. A 120 wRC+ reflects the same run-producing value regardless of whether there are home runs in it or not. Xander has the best wRC+ of his career so far; therefore, he's contributing more to the Sox' offense than ever before, whether he's hitting HR or not.
The massive amount of early hype in regards to what type of hitter he might develop into tends to have more of an impact on this question then it really should imo. I mean he's a SS. Anytime I find myself getting frustrated with the lack of power a quick look back at some of our past SS options is all it takes to remind me just how much it is probably going to suck again once these 6 years are up.
Or I simply watch another Deven Marrero at-bat.
Or I simply watch another Deven Marrero at-bat.
To add to Savin's response, yes:
A walk has an expected run value of 0.55;
Singles are worth 0.70 runs;
Doubles are worth 1.00 runs;
Triples are worth 1.27 runs; and
Home runs are worth 1.65 runs.
Outs "cost" 0.26 runs, so these values include and incorporate the avoidance of that out. Getting thrown out stretching a single into a double still has a positive run expectancy — this is intuitive; a baserunner might score on the play — but it's 0.26 less than a typical single, or only 0.44 runs, or a bit less than a walk.
To answer your question, 40 doubles x 1.00 + 14 HR x 1.65 = 63.1 expected runs, while 12 doubles x 1.00 + 28 HR x 1.65 = 58.2 expected runs. The season with more doubles is a bit more valuable, all else being equal.
Xander's fielding numbers are not that promising in my view. UZR/150 comes in at just a little worse than average among shortstops, while Defensive Runs Saved has Bogaerts at well below average every year but one. His range on grounders is subpar and while his arm is usually accurate, his double-clutching release has cost him more than one baserunner.
As for the timing of his move to 3B, I think that when Devers shows that he can't play 3B, Bogaerts will show that he can.
Except last year, when his 1st half/2nd half WRC+ splits were 131/92, and he was around something like 140-150 at the end of May. So my main question is what he can sustain over a full season.
Yes, his start to this year is less worrisome then his finish to last year. Fwiw, he did go over 200 ABs w/o a HR in 2015 too. If he keeps producing like he has so far in 2017, even with no HRs, we should be happy, even if it doesn't approximate the expectations.
He needs to learn when it's appropriate to try to pull for power, and when to poke the other way. He gets stuck on one mode a lot, this year the latter.
An interesting combination of rate numbers I'm seeing for Xander this year: (1) pitchers are throwing him a few more strikes--Zone% up about 1.5% on both of FG's metrics; (2) He's swinging a lot less--Swing% down from 45.4 to 40.6; (3) But he's putting the ball in play more--BB% + K% this year is a bit less than last year; even though (4) his contact rate is essentially the same.
What all this seems to add up to is that he's watching a lot of strikes go by. And sure enough, his L/Str percentage is a pretty astounding 36.8%--previous career high 31.4%, league average 27.0%. This could mean one of two things: one, he's just plain being too passive up there; or two, pitchers have found that they can throw him strikes in a location (presumably down and away, which is indeed where they mostly pitch him) where he can't crush the ball. He doesn't swing at those pitches early in the count because he's hoping for a mistake he can punish, but with two strikes, he can pretty reliably turn them into line drives to CF and RF that often fall for hits. In order to avoid that, pitchers have to err on the side of missing the zone entirely, hence his career-high walk rate.
What all this seems to add up to is that he's watching a lot of strikes go by. And sure enough, his L/Str percentage is a pretty astounding 36.8%--previous career high 31.4%, league average 27.0%. This could mean one of two things: one, he's just plain being too passive up there; or two, pitchers have found that they can throw him strikes in a location (presumably down and away, which is indeed where they mostly pitch him) where he can't crush the ball. He doesn't swing at those pitches early in the count because he's hoping for a mistake he can punish, but with two strikes, he can pretty reliably turn them into line drives to CF and RF that often fall for hits. In order to avoid that, pitchers have to err on the side of missing the zone entirely, hence his career-high walk rate.
Just trying to understand - there are 54 2B+HR on the 63 expected runs side but only 40 2B+HR on the 58 runs side of your comparison. Based on the figures you used, it looks more like doubles are less valuable than HRs. 40 2B would be 40 expected runs vs 12 2B and 28 HR = 58 expected runs. So, what am I missing that made it work?
Can anyone comment on the psychological impact of HRs vs. doubles on the opposition, both from a nagging issue of having someone still on base vs the immediate impact of the HR?
No HR just now, but 198 2-strike hits since 2016 for Xander with that based loaded single, by the way. (per WEEI radio broadcast)
Unless I'm misreading or misunderstanding your question, it looks like you left out the HR total on the when you added things up. 40 doubles and 14 HR are worth a few runs more than 12 doubles and 28 HR.
More on this: I went to see where Xander stood in the L/Str% column. Sure enough, he is very high. But it turns out he's not only not the highest in baseball, he's not even the highest on the Red Sox. Here's a scattergram of the age (X-axis) and L/Str% (Y-axis) of players with >130 2017 PA.
There's a pretty clear, though not terribly steep, trendline here: the older players get, the more strikes they take. The red circle at the top left includes two obvious outliers: the guys under 25 with over 35% L/Str. They are Mookie Betts and (a little below him) Xander. Further down and to the left are two guys who are closer to the trendline, but still a bit precocious; nobody else has a L/Str quite that high till they are five or six years older. Those two players are Andrew Benintendi and Manuel Margot.
Makes me wonder if this is a system-wide thing, if their minor league instructors put unusual emphasis on discipline and selectivity not just about balls vs. strikes but within the strike zone (and count) as well.
OK, now I get it but I had to go back to the original question you were trying to answer where there were 14 more hits in one side of the equation. That was the part I didn't originally understand. Thanks for re-explaining.
Alex Speier reports on the thumb injury I mentioned up thread. Sounds like this has just started to get better.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/05/23/soxside/xnjlagMw3xpsrjt4cfcBvI/story.html
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/05/23/soxside/xnjlagMw3xpsrjt4cfcBvI/story.html
He hit his first HR of the year last night so maybe the hand-wringing over something so silly will stop.
It was basically trying to understand the statistics behind SJH's post #7. Also, is there somewhere to look up wRC+? I looked on bref and couldn't find it.
We should retitle this thread "Is Xander Bogaerts finished?"
Shortstop is a position full of studs now (Correa, Lindor, Seager. Cozart has been unreal. There is also Trea Turner and emerging guys like Segura and Owings). He is an all-star to this point. Here are his rankings.
wRC+ of 134 (3rd among SS).
wOBA .375 (2nd)
Slugging .470.
One of the better baserunners in baseball (already 1.8 BsR above average).
On pace for a 6 WAR season.
However, Jordy Mercer has outhomered him 3 to 1.
Also - it's cold and rainy.
Shortstop is a position full of studs now (Correa, Lindor, Seager. Cozart has been unreal. There is also Trea Turner and emerging guys like Segura and Owings). He is an all-star to this point. Here are his rankings.
wRC+ of 134 (3rd among SS).
wOBA .375 (2nd)
Slugging .470.
One of the better baserunners in baseball (already 1.8 BsR above average).
On pace for a 6 WAR season.
However, Jordy Mercer has outhomered him 3 to 1.
Also - it's cold and rainy.
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I just realized that just references other calculated stats and constants. You can look up all of them at Fangraphs, but I think the WAR stat has a nested table showing all the calculations down to the batting line level. wOBA is probably the stat you want to look at, with all of the component batting results:
Bogaerts is now hitting a tidy .335/.398/.470/.867, 131 ops+
#1 ranked AL SS in ops
#1 ranked AL SS in obp
#1 ranked AL SS in sb
#2 ranked AL SS in runs
#1 ranked AL SS in hits
#1 ranked AL SS in avg
#1 ranked AL SS in triples
Not bad for a guy who has been, ahem, "underperforming".
#1 ranked AL SS in ops
#1 ranked AL SS in obp
#1 ranked AL SS in sb
#2 ranked AL SS in runs
#1 ranked AL SS in hits
#1 ranked AL SS in avg
#1 ranked AL SS in triples
Not bad for a guy who has been, ahem, "underperforming".
Right? We have a legitimate home-grown superstar shortstop on our team, and the only thing people say about him is OMG OH NOEZ THE HRS. That's Cafardo-esque in its ability to miss the forest for the trees.
While I'm not exactly 'concerned' about Xander, he started like this last year. Are we going to see another extended slump/crash back to earth in the second half?
BABIP: .400 (career high)
GB%: 54.5% (career high)
Infield Hit%: 12.2% (career high)
Soft contact%: 24.3% (career high)
Some of this will be offset by his career low HR/FB (3.2) ratio regressing back to the mean, but he's also hitting fly balls at a career low rate.
I'm pretty sure XB won't hit like this all year. But just as I expect his avg and obp to regress, I expect his power to increase. So yeah, I think he's more than capable of putting up a final ops of .870 or so, which would be outstanding.
This is high, and should be expected lower, but don't expect it to come crashing down. Bogaerts' BABIP over the last 1500 PA is like .360.
I honestly think these sort of reactions are fueled by the fantasy baseball world blurring with reality. Believing value to be so tethered to stats like HR or SB absolutely infects the ability to see the bigger picture for some people.
Agreed. It was sort of a dopey way of raising the worthwhile question of Bogaerts' very interesting offensive profile.
Interesting article on Bogaerts and his lack of power in the Sporting News:
http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/xander-bogaerts-stats-fantasy-red-sox-video-hits-home-runs-walks-strikeouts/5tcfdjay0pgl1o9kbi4vcqeox
He's been a shade below league average for SS, but remember too that he should have been an all-star this season. Though the defensive slip since 2015 is a little concerning.
2016 Shortstops -.263/.317/.407 vs, 2nd half X .253/.317/.412
2017 Shortstops - .262/.316/.412 OPS+ 94 vs. .275/.334/.396 and OPS+ 90 for X
It's disappointing that he hasn't taken a step forward, and maybe he's the guy they don't lock up, but next year will be his age 25 season so more offensive growth is possible. They need to find him more rest, since he seems to tire in the 2nd half.
wRC+ 1st half 2016 - 134
wRC+ 1st half 2017 -110 (unremarkable, but that would lead regulars)
wRC+ - career 1st half 107 vs. career 2nd half 89
2016 Shortstops -.263/.317/.407 vs, 2nd half X .253/.317/.412
2017 Shortstops - .262/.316/.412 OPS+ 94 vs. .275/.334/.396 and OPS+ 90 for X
It's disappointing that he hasn't taken a step forward, and maybe he's the guy they don't lock up, but next year will be his age 25 season so more offensive growth is possible. They need to find him more rest, since he seems to tire in the 2nd half.
wRC+ 1st half 2016 - 134
wRC+ 1st half 2017 -110 (unremarkable, but that would lead regulars)
wRC+ - career 1st half 107 vs. career 2nd half 89
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One troubling thing is that when he slumps, he turns almost completely worthless. Every part of his ABs--contact, pitch recognition, his swing--goes beyond ugly.
This would be tolerable if he was a defensive asset, which he most certainly is not. I think if Pedroia were healthy they'd be seriously considering benching him.
Again, he is still very young--younger than Aaron Judge, a month older than Gary Sanchez--but next year is going to be huge in terms of deciding whether he's even worth considering extending.
This would be tolerable if he was a defensive asset, which he most certainly is not. I think if Pedroia were healthy they'd be seriously considering benching him.
Again, he is still very young--younger than Aaron Judge, a month older than Gary Sanchez--but next year is going to be huge in terms of deciding whether he's even worth considering extending.
I'd honestly say that this season and a shown willingness to even do it to begin with was realistically his now or never point there. As even in the somewhat unlikely event he does late bloom 2500+ PA's into his career, and busts out that put-it-all together/breakthrough season in 2018 (that hopefully includes the consistent display of power as well), Boras will most certainly take him to free agency at that point. Which then means premium money - obviously making the risk vs reward factor a lot less sexy for us. Especially with surrounding LT concerns.
As I've stated before, of all the guys to speculate making a premium type long term investment on Xander makes the least amount of sense to me. In fact i'd probably even put him above Kimbrel. The consistency just isn't there, and the emergence of Devers at 3B probably isn't doing his projected long term roster fit value here any favors either imo (since I wouldn't want to risk making an additional all-in bet that he actually sticks at SS for a extended period of time beyond the next 2 years).
If anything between the two you think more about trading him this winter when DD is already going to be obsessing over the addition of a legit middle order of the bat anyway, and while Xander still has the type of value that might bring back quality cost controlled roster reinforcements that line up up with near future needs. Not that he's doing that possibility any favors either atm, of course.