Evaluating the 2017 Red Sox

What is the most pressing need for this team?

  • Improving the defense

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    197

glennhoffmania

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Except his point is backed up with the Diamondback's additions this year and their statistical contributions this year, which he cited, but there is almost nothing you can look at to answer your hypothetical situation. The Red Sox are .3 off their pythag, and the D'backs are 1.4 games worse than theirs.

The Sox have not been great at converting runners on base into runs, but that's just bad luck. Hopefully, it will change.
I don't know what you're trying to add here. I didn't say that Snod is wrong. I simply said that we can't say for sure whether they're doing better because they acquired better players, or if they're doing better because Lovullo is managing the team better. I mean Walker is the perfect guy to look at. Clearly he's contributing to their success and he's a new addition. So that does mean it has nothing to do with the manager's skills? Or does the fact that his FIP is down 1.5 runs compared to last year suggest that Lovullo fixed something? I don't know. But neither do you, and that's why the question isn't necessarily answered by simply pointing to what AZ' new additions are contributing.

The larger question here that's been discussed in various places over the last couple of years is whether Farrell maximizes the talent of the roster. It's clearly a subjective issue. Pointing to Lovullo's success over a quarter of a season doesn't answer it one way or the other.
 

tims4wins

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I don't know what you're trying to add here. I didn't say that Snod is wrong. I simply said that we can't say for sure whether they're doing better because they acquired better players, or if they're doing better because Lovullo is managing the team better. I mean Walker is the perfect guy to look at. Clearly he's contributing to their success and he's a new addition. So that does mean it has nothing to do with the manager's skills? Or does the fact that his FIP is down 1.5 runs compared to last year suggest that Lovullo fixed something? I don't know. But neither do you, and that's why the question isn't necessarily answered by simply pointing to what AZ' new additions are contributing.

The larger question here that's been discussed in various places over the last couple of years is whether Farrell maximizes the talent of the roster. It's clearly a subjective issue. Pointing to Lovullo's success over a quarter of a season doesn't answer it one way or the other.
Farrell got to add Sale and Benintendi. On the flip side he has lost Ortiz and Price. Every team has additions and subtractions. 69-93 to 26-18 is pretty drastic, albeit SSS.
 

StevieNick8

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May 22, 2017
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I was going to go with "Fixing the 2017 Red Sox" but am not sure it is quite relevant until this gets into early June or so, or until they fall 7 games or more behind in 1st place.

Among the weaknesses on this team through the first quarter of the season has been the defense, the offense from the corners, DH and CF. Aggressive, intelligent base running was a big strength last year, and we're not seeing that as much. Some would also argue that Farrell isn't pushing the right buttons or getting the team ready.

On the plus side, the bullpen has been a surprise to some, given their two dominant set up guys have yet to throw a pitch. Catcher defense is excellent, and Vazquez has taken a step forward. Xander and Mookie have played close to their level with possible improvement on the way. Benintendi has played well for the most part before this first major slump of his career.

Clearly the team is underachieving at just one game above .500 when most had them as a top 5 team in the majors at worst, and the top threat to the Cubs repeating at best.

Personally, I believe it is as simple as getting Hanley (wRC+ 97 as a DH) and JBJ (abysmal with signs of life) going. The lineup is top heavy and has yet to gel for extended stretches. David Price returning healthy is the other major improvement.

What do you all think will cure what ails them? Is this team really underachieving, or have we over-estimated the talent?
The biggest issue in the long term is starting pitching. Pomeranz averages 4.2 Innings a start, one of the worst marks in the majors for a SP, and I do not view him as a viable starter. We clearly also have no #5 starter. This means that if Price fails to come back in his last season form we pretty much have 3 quality starters. If Dombrowski is forced to trade for a starter and lessen the few prospects we have left that is big trouble.
 

Clears Cleaver

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I thought Clear's post (D-Backs play with joy) was in earnest and the sarcasm started after that. I'm sure that if we get more games like yesterday, there will be plenty of brotherly love, high fives, hugs and joy in our dugout.

I was being sarcastic. I watched them walk off against the Mets and the Mets announcers made some similar remark referencing difference between Mets and Arizona.

That being said, Sox did seem to play looser under louvello but they were also eliminated and with no expectations. My issue w Farrell is he's had several teams underperform and tighten up as season goes along.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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We really can't complain about Young, Moreland and Rutledge. They are who we thought they were.
But good organizations turn signings like Young, Moreland and Rutledge into quality players and that's a big part of what makes smart organizations consistently successful. The Red Sox aren't able to do that right now.
 

joe dokes

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But good organizations turn signings like Young, Moreland and Rutledge into quality players and that's a big part of what makes smart organizations consistently successful. The Red Sox aren't able to do that right now.
I'm not sure I understand what "turn signings like . . Young, Moreland and Rutledge into quality players" means.

Young is the RHH half of a platoon (990 vs LHPs), who was able to hit RHPs (760) enough to not suck. He got 225 PA's last year. He's hitting almost exactly the same vs. RHPs this year; and they haven't faced many LHPs. when you're LHH LF is a rookie, and your LHH CF is streaky, Young seems to be the right guy to have. He's sort of Gomes without the beard.

Moreland is a middle-of-the-road hitting 1bMan, who is at least holding his own vs the LHPs that he wasn't supposed to face.
Rutledge is cannon fodder. All teams have them

In the context of Young, Moreland and Rutledge what would a "good organization" have done?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The biggest issue in the long term is starting pitching. Pomeranz averages 4.2 Innings a start, one of the worst marks in the majors for a SP, and I do not view him as a viable starter. We clearly also have no #5 starter. This means that if Price fails to come back in his last season form we pretty much have 3 quality starters. If Dombrowski is forced to trade for a starter and lessen the few prospects we have left that is big trouble.
If this team is in a position where they only have 3 "quality starters" (accepting your premise that Pomeranz is irredeemable and Price won't get healthy), there is no trade or even series of trades Dombrowski can make to save the season. Call up the kids and play out the string and throw money at some free agents this winter.
 

Al Zarilla

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I was being sarcastic. I watched them walk off against the Mets and the Mets announcers made some similar remark referencing difference between Mets and Arizona.

That being said, Sox did seem to play looser under louvello but they were also eliminated and with no expectations. My issue w Farrell is he's had several teams underperform and tighten up as season goes along.
OK, sarcasm. Someday we'll be able to tell by ESP or something over the internet if someone is being sarcastic or not.

If they could turn back the clock, would the Sox kick Farrell upstairs and give the skipper job to Lovullo? One thing about changing managers is it doesn't cost the team anything, which is not the case with getting another bat or a pitcher.
 

chawson

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I'm not sure I understand what "turn signings like . . Young, Moreland and Rutledge into quality players" means.
Moreland is a middle-of-the-road hitting 1bMan, who is at least holding his own vs the LHPs that he wasn't supposed to face.
Rutledge is cannon fodder. All teams have them

In the context of Young, Moreland and Rutledge what would a "good organization" have done?
Sign Luis Valbuena who can play 1B/3B and hits RHP as well as Adrian Beltre, George Springer, or Dustin Pedroia hits everyone (.352 wOBA 2015-16).
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I mean Walker is the perfect guy to look at. Clearly he's contributing to their success and he's a new addition. So that does mean it has nothing to do with the manager's skills? Or does the fact that his FIP is down 1.5 runs compared to last year suggest that Lovullo fixed something? I don't know. But neither do you
Except that Walker is a few months shy of 25 years old, with less than 500 innings under his belt, and getting better is what pitchers like that do. It's normal. If he were getting worse at his age, there would be questions to answer. Or if he were 35 and getting better.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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I agree with your point, and I don't believe that Lovullo would necessarily be the key to fixing this team, but I think what some people are trying to argue is that some managers get maximum production out of players and some, ie., Farrell, do not. You can disagree with the premise, but simply pointing to the solid production out of all of those AZ guys doesn't disprove the point. It actually may support it.

Let's flip it around. If Farrell was managing Walker and Godley, would they be doing just as well? It's obviously impossible to say but I think it's at least fair to suggest that Farrell is developing a track record for not making the most of the roster he's given.
My point was that claiming it was the same DBacks team was dumb at best, and outright manipulative and intentionally misleading at worst.
 

chrisfont9

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the pitching is overall good and why we're still hanging above .500. But there is zero depth in the rotation, so one more major injury and that could be an issue. The bullpen is likely to regress outside Kimbrel to middle-of-the-pack... Barnes/Hembree have begun doing that for sure. We will not win the division if Smith is not effective as the setup man down the stretch.
Hasn't the rotation already had that injury? Price's return is around the corner. I voted "get healthy" on the chance that maybe their run of injuries is going to calm the fuck down. All of the factors in the poll have been meaningful, but EdRo blossoming and Sale being amazing gives them a strong foundation, so I'm still pretty bullish on things working out. But it'd be nice if one of Smith or Thornburg got healthy before the ASB.
 

chrisfont9

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Oh? And who was that? Here's an article about the SP trade market. Who was a better option that wasn't going to cost more, both in salary and prospect capital? Also understand that the in-division options are likely not available to the Sox so that limits the pool even more.

Edit: Damn you, UK
And it wasn't just the short-term market, it was the subsequent winter market too that wasn't expected to come with much opportunity. Granted, the White Sox changed that (bless em), but at the time of the trade the Sox were looking at very few interesting options for the next 18 months.
 

The Gray Eagle

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One issue so far this year: the Red Sox rank 28th in Defensive Efficiency.

"A year ago, the Sox had a solid defense, converting 70.7 percent of balls in play into outs, a mark that ranked 12th in the big leagues. This year, the team ranks 28th in the big leagues with a 69.2 percent defensive efficiency."

A lot of that seems to be from third base, which overall has ben horrific but has become solid with Marrero there for now. But for a team with Bradley, Betts, Pedroia, a supposed gold-glove first baseman, a LF who came up as a CF, and two good defensive catchers, that is a surprisingly poor ranking.
 

StevieNick8

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May 22, 2017
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If this team is in a position where they only have 3 "quality starters" (accepting your premise that Pomeranz is irredeemable and Price won't get healthy), there is no trade or even series of trades Dombrowski can make to save the season. Call up the kids and play out the string and throw money at some free agents this winter.
I agree with that to an extent. If Pomeranz is a below average 4 and we trade for a 5 I still think this team could make the wild card. When in the playoffs, a rotation of Sale, Porcello, E-Rod could give the team a chance.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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I agree with that to an extent. If Pomeranz is a below average 4 and we trade for a 5 I still think this team could make the wild card. When in the playoffs, a rotation of Sale, Porcello, E-Rod could give the team a chance.
They are 4.5 back of the division leading Yankees with a good chance to end the night 3.5 back. The O's already lost.

Step back from the ledge.
 

sean1562

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I agree with that to an extent. If Pomeranz is a below average 4 and we trade for a 5 I still think this team could make the wild card. When in the playoffs, a rotation of Sale, Porcello, E-Rod could give the team a chance.
I think we need price to be competitive in the playoffs.
 

johnnyfromspain

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I think we need price to be competitive in the playoffs.
This team is going to get hot as the the weather does so. We will make the playoffs, there is too much talent not to. When we make the playoffs we need Sale to be himself, Porcello to get balls hit at people, Price to be "Regular-season Price" and not "Playoff Price", Eduardo Rodríguez to continue maturing and, most importantly, the bats to get hot. With all that, they can win another ring. If not, some other team will get all the pieces together and get themselves a title.
Regardless, enjoy the ride gentlemen. This team is a joy to watch and follow.
 

joe dokes

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edit: never mind
The post I was responding to said "turn those signings into...." Which I was unclear about. Moreland young and Rutledge aren't this teams problem areas.

Otoh, Valbuena would fit right in with the spinal tap drummer parade at 3b this year. (He has been good in the past, though).
 

AB in DC

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The Sox pitching staff now has the highest fWAR in the AL. So let's keep that in perspective when we talk about whether the team is a contender.
 

SumnerH

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The Sox pitching staff now has the highest fWAR in the AL. So let's keep that in perspective when we talk about whether the team is a contender.
And #5 in the AL in team fWAR for batters; #3 by wOBA. Leading the majors in OBP.

They are at 181 runs scored 177 given up.
Now at 225-200 and winning right at their Pythag (a quarter game difference).


Statistical oddities: Red Sox pinch hitters are 8-19 for a MLB-leading .421 PH BA. They're also tied for the league in GIDP (with Houston, which is also a top-5 OBP team).

Houston has reached on catcher's interference 6 times this season (Yankees 3; nobody else more than once).
 

Al Zarilla

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And #5 in the AL in team fWAR for batters; #3 by wOBA. Leading the majors in OBP.



Now at 225-200 and winning right at their Pythag (a quarter game difference).


Statistical oddities: Red Sox pinch hitters are 8-19 for a MLB-leading .421 PH BA. They're also tied for the league in GIDP (with Houston, which is also a top-5 OBP team).

Houston has reached on catcher's interference 6 times this season (Yankees 3; nobody else more than once).
OFF TOPIC

Ellsbury! Said in a Seinfeld "Newman!" voice. Ells is second all time to Pete Rose in drawing catcher's interference.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Catcher's_interference
 

charlieoscar

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Now at 225-200 and winning right at their Pythag (a quarter game difference).
I have been tracking their expected won-lost record with regard to their opponents' record using what Bill James called the Log5 system. That gives you the expected result when a team with one winning percentage plays another team, for example what is the expected outcome when a .600 team plays a .400 team. I have a spreadsheet that imports the standings and automatically calculates the expected winning percentage for the Red Sox against each of the teams they have played thus far. Multiplying the number of games played against a particular team by the result of the Log5 calculation gives how many games they should have won so far against that team. The spreadsheet then sums these to give a predicted record for the Red Sox. NOTE: this changes daily and as they play new opponents, those teams will be added to the sum.

Anyway, the Red Sox have faced 13 different teams so far and according to Log% their record should be 25.58 wins and 21.42 losses, which is in line with the Pythag that SumnerH reported. Their opponent's have a .502 winning percentage so far and the seven teams remaining to be faced are around .488, but it is still fairly early in the season and a hot/cold streak can change things quite a bit.
 

Al Zarilla

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And he's only one behind Rose (28 vs. 29 all-time).
Yankees see Ellsbury's getting so many catcher's interference calls as related to a problem with his swing. Also, I've always maintained that his surprisingly slow time to first base is due to his lunging back toward the catcher at the end of his swing, which is probably related to the CI calls. Article says Yankees have studied video of his great year with the Sox. They still think they could resurrect that Ellsbury, I guess.

http://riveraveblues.com/2017/01/the-catchers-interference-record-is-a-symptom-of-jacoby-ellsburys-problem-at-the-plate-149136/
 

jon abbey

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I actually don't think he's too long for NY, contract and all, since he is probably their sixth best outfielder currently. That article linked is from January, and Judge, Hicks, Frazier and Fowler have all taken major strides since then (Gardner is the other one ahead of him, he has had a great season so far).
 

grimshaw

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Hanley has mostly gotten a pass this season, but I can see this potentially becoming an issue.
Two years ago his production greatly suffered between the positional change and lingering shoulder issues. The power since early May when he was hitting monstrous homers has gone away.

He has homered once and doubled twice in 20 games since then, seeing his slugging drop to .419 which coincides with his re-aggravation of his shoulder. Normally I'd call it a SSS cold spell and just chalk it up to his streakiness since getting here. He's getting on base and drawing his walks and singles, but he needs to do more than table set in the clean up spot, since the back end of the lineup is so weak. I'm not suggesting his overall numbers are necessarily awful - he'd be 20th among 1B in slugging and middle of the pack in wRC+., and roughly middle of the pack for the same among DH's, but the potential injury could make those numbers worse.

What I find irritating is that either the team refuses to DL him and get him right once and for all, or that he is hiding an injury. If it is the latter, then I have to wonder if it has something to do with his vesting option for plate appearances over the next two seasons which kicks in for his age 35 2019 season.

The offensive depth is lacking at this point, but maybe it's time to give him a break to heal so he can put on a 2nd half clinic like he did last year, and give Travis an extended look.
 
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uk_sox_fan

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The Sox quietly (it seemed) had a very good May for offense. They scored 159 runs which ranked tied for 2nd in MLB behind the white hot Astros and was tied with the LAD(?!)

They scored 9+ runs in 6 of their 28 games and only lost once in the 13 games in which they scored 5 or more runs (the 11-7 Pomeranz loss in Mil). They split the 6 games that they scored 4 and lost 8 of 9 in which they scored 3 or fewer (ERod's 3-0 win v Sea being the lone win when the bats were relatively silent). Porcello's 5-0 loss to Bergman in the same series was the only times the Boston bats failed to score at least 2 however.

Comparing them to the best team in MLB right now, here's how they compared with Hou in record by runs scored:

Code:
 RS  BOS   HOU
0-3  1-8   4-4
 4   3-3   1-1
 5   2-0   3-0
 6   4-0   2-2
7-9  1-1   7-0
10+  5-0   5-0
Tot 16-12  22-7
So to me it looks like Hou distinguished themselves by getting great pitching when the offensive production was low enough to salvage a few games and by having more consistency in scoring well (18 games with 6+ runs vs 11 for Bos). But this was the hottest team in baseball - the Red Sox numbers stack up really well against everyone else's.

So how did they reverse the abysmal number of runs scored in April? (they went from 3.9 rpg or 25th to 5.7 rpg, good for tied 2nd). Well they continued to hit for average (.270 in Apr (3rd) -> .269 in May (6th)), improved their walk rate (Apr OB% .334 (5th) -> May: .351 (1st)) and moved from dead last in HR (15) in Apr to just a little below MLB average (33) in May. SLG improved from .381 (24th) to .440 (12th) in line with the return to reasonable power.

So the offence is slowing coming into form. It doesn't look like they'll be league-leaders in slugging anytime soon, but if they can avoid the complete power drought they showed in April, their exceptional plate discipline should be enough to stay near the top of baseball in runs scored. If the pitching keeps giving quality outings and the bullpen stays consistent they'll be fighting the Astros, Indians and Yankees for a place in the Fall Classic, just like we expected in March...
 
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uk_sox_fan

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Expanding the chart for some other competitors in the AL:

Code:
 RS  BOS   HOU  NYY   CLE   TOR
 0   0-1   0-1  ---   0-1   0-1
 1   ---   1-1  0-4   1-5   0-2
 2   0-3   1-0  0-3   0-3   1-0
 3   1-4   2-2  4-1   3-1   3-1
 4   3-3   1-1  1-2   0-3   3-1
 5   2-0   3-0  1-1   2-0   1-3
 6   4-0   2-2  ---   1-0   1-2
 7   0-1   4-0  1-1   0-1   4-0
 8   ---   3-0  2-0   4-0   3-0
 9   1-0   ---  1-0   1-0   1-0
10+  5-0   5-0  5-0   1-0   1-0
Tot 16-12 22-7 15-12 13-14 18-10
EDIT: fixed the numbers for NYY and Hou. Thanks simplicio
 
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streeter88

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Adds $15m this year in salary (Lowrie $6.5m, Davis $5m and Gray $3.5m), Lowrie goes away end of this year and we still don't have a 3B, but on the plus side there would be 2 more years of control of both Davis and Gray. And would be fun to watch those Davis bombs...

However, it depletes the farm even more, and there might be an argument that the best chemistry and fan appeal the Sox have right now - the fun young outfield - will be diluted or pulled apart.

Tempting, but I would rather we saw one of the kids come up for a pre all star taste before trying something like this.
 

Byrdbrain

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If you drop Devers from that deal I could see it making some sense but even then I'd pass since I don't see Gray as much of an upgrade over Pom and Johnson.

How do you propose a trade for a stopgap 3B and then trade both of the potential long term replacements?
 

joe dokes

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Adds $15m this year in salary (Lowrie $6.5m, Davis $5m and Gray $3.5m), Lowrie goes away end of this year and we still don't have a 3B, but on the plus side there would be 2 more years of control of both Davis and Gray. And would be fun to watch those Davis bombs...

However, it depletes the farm even more, and there might be an argument that the best chemistry and fan appeal the Sox have right now - the fun young outfield - will be diluted or pulled apart.

Tempting, but I would rather we saw one of the kids come up for a pre all star taste before trying something like this.
It's tempting in the same way lead paint is tempting to children and anti-freeze is tempting to dogs.
 

Plympton91

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I'm getting the feeling it's just not going to happen this year. New York and Houston are way better than anyone expected. Cleveland has been just as snakebit by injuries and underperformance as Boston. This is not the juggernaut I was expecting. Oh well. They'll be entertaining. But it would be hard to think of them as favorites anymore.
 

AB in DC

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Sure looks like Sports Illustrated got it right three years ago.

What concerns me the most is seeing guys like Ramirez and Pedroia start to decline in their age-34 seasons. We've all been looking forward to youngsters like Benintendi and JBJ to continue to improve, but if we're losing production from our senior statesmen at the same pace, then we're just treading water.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Dallas Braden didn't survive the ESPN purge last month, and didn't garner much attention for it, for good reason.

Oh, and he was an A his whole career, so color me shocked he'd propose a "wacky" trade that heavily favors them.
 

UncleStinkfinger

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Sure looks like Sports Illustrated got it right three years ago.

What concerns me the most is seeing guys like Ramirez and Pedroia start to decline in their age-34 seasons. We've all been looking forward to youngsters like Benintendi and JBJ to continue to improve, but if we're losing production from our senior statesmen at the same pace, then we're just treading water.
What worries me is that the guys we are paying big money to right now aren't producing for the most part and when we have to pay the young guys, Dombroski won't have the new set of kids coming in from the minors to keep this thing going because he's given so much away.