The Plan For the #1, er, #3 Overall Pick?

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I wouldn't hate this
what does this even mean? Who cares if fifteen teams have fallen in love with Jackson. There is only one team that has a chance to draft him #1 so why would it matter if other teams might pick him at #1?

And while I think JJ is great and wouldn't have minded him at #2 or #3, there is no way he has the highest upside. He's going to be an undersized 3 that can't shoot very well (unless he completely remakes his shot) who can guard multiple positions. That's extremely valuable, but he's not turning into LBJ or Kawhi since it's really unlikely that he's going to add 30 pounds to his frame.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I'm not the most educated on this, but isn't Jackson kind of redundant if one thinks Brown will pan out?
Assuming at least one of them figures out how to create his own shot, in today's NBA, they could play together as they are both really versatile defensively. I mean if Brad can figure out how to get Crowder and Smart on the floor at the same time, he can figure out how to play JJ and JB at the same time, so long as they both aren't just 3&D players.
 

OnWisc

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what does this even mean? Who cares if fifteen teams have fallen in love with Jackson. There is only one team that has a chance to draft him #1 so why would it matter if other teams might pick him at #1?
Because if someone is looking to trade up to get him, now they've got to trade for the first pick instead of the third, either because the Celtics are one of the teams that might take Jackson first overall or because we could trade the pick to someone that would.

As someone who hopes we keep the pick, I'm fine if it isn't coveted by other teams. But there's always the chance someone pulls the NBA version of the Bears draft.
 

Cellar-Door

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My offseason plan for the #1 is.... Draft Fultz.
Nobody I would trade him for is going to be available, the guys who are available are for various reasons not going to make us a legit title contender.
The harder choices are... do you get Hayward, and if you do... which current players do you move. To me it is IT. He's not a player you can max if you want to win the title, now that's maybe a tough sell for Hayward to be told... we're trading the best scorer, and likely several young guys (Brown, Zizic maybe Fultz) are going to play big roles, but to me that's how you build a real title threat. Now the question as always is what is your return on IT. If it isnt enough I let it ride then wave IT goodbye in free agency.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Because if someone is looking to trade up to get him, now they've got to trade for the first pick instead of the third, either because the Celtics are one of the teams that might take Jackson first overall or because we could trade the pick to someone that would.

As someone who hopes we keep the pick, I'm fine if it isn't coveted by other teams. But there's always the chance someone pulls the NBA version of the Bears draft.
No there isn't. I'm pretty sure I'm right about this - in the modern era, only one #1 pick was traded and that was because the #1 pick refused to play for the team that was making the pick (Webber).

DA would require a king's ransom to trade the pick, which rules out 95% of the teams and the remaining 5% of the teams that might have enough assets to propose a trade just aren't going to do it.
 

Kliq

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There have only been hints from "unnamed sources" about George's desire to play for the Lakers. And for some reason, these little bits of info have exploded into "George only wants to play for LAL". I am skeptical of the whole thing, and I imagine Danny would know far better than any of us on what George's plans would be in the summer of 2018
Exactly. Everyone agrees George wants out of Indiana because the team isn't going anywhere and he wants to win now in his prime...so he is going to go to the Lakers, who have lost a zillion games over the last few years? Just because he is from LA? Westbrook and Love were supposed to be Laker-bound at one point as well simply because they were LA guys. The league doesn't work that way. The Lakers do have an advantage when it comes to attracting free agents, but that advantage is really a non-factor when the team is soul-suckingly horrible.
 

nighthob

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My offseason plan for the #1 is.... Draft Fultz.
Nobody I would trade him for is going to be available, the guys who are available are for various reasons not going to make us a legit title contender.
The harder choices are... do you get Hayward, and if you do... which current players do you move. To me it is IT. He's not a player you can max if you want to win the title, now that's maybe a tough sell for Hayward to be told... we're trading the best scorer, and likely several young guys (Brown, Zizic maybe Fultz) are going to play big roles, but to me that's how you build a real title threat. Now the question as always is what is your return on IT. If it isnt enough I let it ride then wave IT goodbye in free agency.
I would consider dealing Lil' Zeke as part of a package for Paul George, and that's probably easy to sell to the Pacers thanks to the All-NBA voting results. A Horford/Hayward/George team with Fultz and Crowder rounding out the top five and Smart, Rozier, Zizic, YaBooty bench would give the Cavs a run for their money, and probably convince George that his future was here rather than a 50 loss Laker squad.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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My offseason plan for the #1 is.... Draft Fultz.
Nobody I would trade him for is going to be available, the guys who are available are for various reasons not going to make us a legit title contender.
The harder choices are... do you get Hayward, and if you do... which current players do you move. To me it is IT. He's not a player you can max if you want to win the title, now that's maybe a tough sell for Hayward to be told... we're trading the best scorer, and likely several young guys (Brown, Zizic maybe Fultz) are going to play big roles, but to me that's how you build a real title threat. Now the question as always is what is your return on IT. If it isnt enough I let it ride then wave IT goodbye in free agency.
I think you let IT ride and let him test the market. If they intend to draft Fultz (which I think they should) I don't think you then drop max money on IT. We've seen how he wears down, his deficiencies on defense and his limitations. He's electric, but he's going to get the shit beat out of him and that's probably not long off, imo. If they have to move one of the guards, I'd rather see them move IT than AB.
 

BigSoxFan

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I would consider dealing Lil' Zeke as part of a package for Paul George, and that's probably easy to sell to the Pacers thanks to the All-NBA voting results. A Horford/Hayward/George team with Fultz and Crowder rounding out the top five and Smart, Rozier, Zizic, YaBooty bench would give the Cavs a run for their money, and probably convince George that his future was here rather than a 50 loss Laker squad.
I don't see Brown there so are you assuming IT/Brown for George? No way I do that without a LT deal for George.
 

nighthob

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I don't see Brown there so are you assuming IT/Brown for George? No way I do that without a LT deal for George.
Extensions are always based on the value of the present contract. The only way for him to get the new max is to go to free agency. He won't be signing an extension.
 

lovegtm

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I don't see Brown there so are you assuming IT/Brown for George? No way I do that without a LT deal for George.
Since most people here would do IT straight up for George without thinking, even without
Extensions are always based on the value of the present contract. The only way for him to get the new max is to go to free agency. He won't be signing an extension.
I think he meant with a verbal agreement in place/an understanding with PG's agent. I think there's some precedent for such arrangements, even if they're not legally binding, no?

Without a commitment in place, I'd probably only be fine with IT+ non-Brooklyn/non-Brown assets. The no-commitment scenario is actually a bit interesting, since the Lakers might choose to just wait it out, and the Pacers could find the market a lot drier than they had hoped. They took a huge risk in waiting for the all-NBA results, the bet didn't pay off, and their position is really weak now.
 

Clears Cleaver

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Belichick would trade him. Especially before he was about to take up a max portion of the cap to keep.

I don't think you can play fultz and IT together given the defensive issues. I thought you could but fultz has shown little defensive tenacity (compare to smart or Bradley in college). Maybe he sucked on d because his team sucked and he didn't play hard, I don't know. But a backcourt of IT and Fultz is a sieve.

How long a contract would IT get? He'd be such a perfect Vinnie Johnson in today's game.
 

nolasoxfan

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Since most people here would do IT straight up for George without thinking, even without

I think he meant with a verbal agreement in place/an understanding with PG's agent. I think there's some precedent for such arrangements, even if they're not legally binding, no?

Without a commitment in place, I'd probably only be fine with IT+ non-Brooklyn/non-Brown assets. The no-commitment scenario is actually a bit interesting, since the Lakers might choose to just wait it out, and the Pacers could find the market a lot drier than they had hoped. They took a huge risk in waiting for the all-NBA results, the bet didn't pay off, and their position is really weak now.
I’m not sure what the ‘George Market’ will be like during the offseason, but according to the Washington Post the Hawks offered the Pacers four first round draft picks for George @ the Feb. trade deadline. It’s doubtful that any of those picks (ATL 2017, ATL 2018, MINN 2018, CLV 2019) would have been top ten, though. So, I suppose one could understand the Pacers rejecting the offer.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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According to Chris Mannix, he was told by one GM that if Fultz had come out last year, he would have been picked ahead of Simmons. He also said: "He’s the type of player that you just simply can’t trade that pick, because if you trade it and even if you wind up with a Jimmy Butler or a Paul George, you have to kind of prepare yourself for the reality that Markelle Fultz is probably going to be kicking people’s asses for the next 10 to 15 years and being a perennial all-star. Obviously there’s no such thing as a sure thing in the draft, but he’s the closest thing to it.”
(attribution: http://boston.cbslocal.com/2017/05/18/mannix-markelle-fultz-celtics-nba-draft/)
 

DannyDarwinism

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According to Chris Mannix, he was told by one GM that if Fultz had come out last year, he would have been picked ahead of Simmons. He also said: "He’s the type of player that you just simply can’t trade that pick, because if you trade it and even if you wind up with a Jimmy Butler or a Paul George, you have to kind of prepare yourself for the reality that Markelle Fultz is probably going to be kicking people’s asses for the next 10 to 15 years and being a perennial all-star. Obviously there’s no such thing as a sure thing in the draft, but he’s the closest thing to it.”
(attribution: http://boston.cbslocal.com/2017/05/18/mannix-markelle-fultz-celtics-nba-draft/)
I saw Givony from Draft Express say basically the same thing- that he prefers Fultz over Simmons, no question. I was a bit surprised by that, but I guess SImmons's shaky jumper is enough to drop him.

If you look at the draft thread throughout the college season, there's a lot of debate about lots of guys, but not much at all about who's #1. Some of that's probably because we're all reading the same scouting reports, but it's also because he pops off the screen when watching him as a great shooter, great passer, who can get to the rim with ease or knock down shots off the bounce; all skills that look like they will easily translate to the NBA. Factoring in his age, length and reports about his coachability is just icing on the cake.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I saw Givony from Draft Express say basically the same thing- that he prefers Fultz over Simmons, no question. I was a bit surprised by that, but I guess SImmons's shaky jumper is enough to drop him.

If you look at the draft thread throughout the college season, there's a lot of debate about lots of guys, but not much at all about who's #1. Some of that's probably because we're all reading the same scouting reports, but it's also because he pops off the screen when watching him as a great shooter, great passer, who can get to the rim with ease or knock down shots off the bounce; all skills that look like they will easily translate to the NBA. Factoring in his age, length and reports about his coachability is just icing on the cake.
Yeah, I guess this does pretty much pop off the screen.


and this against Oregon and HRB's binkie, Jordan Bell:


In fact, the entire clip of videos in this article is, well, inspirational.

https://fansided.com/2017/05/19/markelle-fultz-incredible-upside-finisher/
 

Saints Rest

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So two ridiculous finishes, one with each hand? Is that what you're showing me?

:)
And if you like those, there was a series of clips from a game against Colorado where he scored something like 37, but the money-shot was an unbelievable bounce pass thru traffic from the top of the key to a back-door cutter.

EDIT: Game was against Colorado. Here's the clip. I started it one highlight early as it shows him making a very athletic block on a fast break layup. Then the bounce pass.
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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And if you like those, there was a series of clips from a game against Colorado where he scored something like 37, but the money-shot was an unbelievable bounce pass thru traffic from the top of the key to a back-door cutter.
That pass was great but this clip is insane. A behind the back dribble to split the double-team and then a no-look pass to a cutter. What more can you possibly want from a PG?

 

DannyDarwinism

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And if you like those, there was a series of clips from a game against Colorado where he scored something like 37, but the money-shot was an unbelievable bounce pass thru traffic from the top of the key to a back-door cutter.

EDIT: Game was against Colorado. Here's the clip. I started it one highlight early as it shows him making a very athletic block on a fast break layup. Then the bounce pass.
His chase-down blocks are pretty fun too. He's so smooth. Over a block per game as a freshman point guard. Decent steal rate too. With his tools, I'm not that worried about his defense once he gets in good atmosphere. Brad-ball > Romer-ball.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Yeah, I guess this does pretty much pop off the screen.


and this against Oregon and HRB's binkie, Jordan Bell:
/
Is HRB on Bell too? This'll be the second year in a row we'll have the same undersized upperclassmen big from out west as our second round guy. Though I think I like Bell more than I liked Siakam because of his defensive ceiling.
 

DJnVa

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And if you like those, there was a series of clips from a game against Colorado where he scored something like 37, but the money-shot was an unbelievable bounce pass thru traffic from the top of the key to a back-door cutter.

EDIT: Game was against Colorado. Here's the clip. I started it one highlight early as it shows him making a very athletic block on a fast break layup. Then the bounce pass.
Oh, I've seen that clip. There are a season's worth of highlights in just that game.
 

kazuneko

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The only way I'd be happy trading this pick is for an elite NBA star (i.e. a player on a higher tier than George/Butler). That means players that are currently MVP level, a list that by my estimation is only six names long: LBJ, Durant, Westbrook, Curry, Leonard and Harden. Of course of that list there are five that no one could imagine getting traded. Clearly none of the three best teams in the league are trading any of their elite stars, and Houston's breakthrough year isn't going to end with their MVP-candidate traded. That leaves Russell Westbrook, a player who is not only the odds on favorite for the MVP but also on a team that is on the fast track to nowhere: the NBA purgatory otherwise known as the perennial 40-win team. Sam Presti might not want to trade Westbrook, but if he's smart he knows that he can't build a championship around him unless the improbable happens and OKC attracts top tier free agents. He also knows that if Danny Ainge were to offer him a franchise reshaping, godfather package of the 2017 pick, the 2018 pick and Brown (and presumably salary cap filler) that he will never again get a better offer for his star. For the Cs, the key to such a trade would be to pair it with the signing of another star free agent to give them a core of stars that could potentially make them contenders even in the LBJ era.
Of course this is probably not going to happen, but barring this type of blockbuster the Cs are better off keeping Fultz and hoping that he can pair with next year's pick (which includes multiple players with superstar potential) to be the core of a post-LBJ era dynasty.
 

Kid T

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For the Cs, the key to such a trade would be to pair it with the signing of another star free agent to give them a core of stars that could potentially make them contenders even in the LBJ era.
Is this even possible under the cap constraints? We already have to renounce all of our FA and possibly find a trade partner for Crowder/Smart/Bradley to clear enough room to offer Hayward a max deal and that's before accounting for Westbrook, who is due to make $28.5 mil next year.

I think the most likely scenario is that we draft Fultz and try to sign Hayward while trading Crowder (hopefully a desirable piece given his low salary and positional obsolescence given the presence of Brown and Hayward).
 

Eddie Jurak

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Is this even possible under the cap constraints? We already have to renounce all of our FA and possibly find a trade partner for Crowder/Smart/Bradley to clear enough room to offer Hayward a max deal and that's before accounting for Westbrook, who is due to make $28.5 mil next year.

I think the most likely scenario is that we draft Fultz and try to sign Hayward while trading Crowder (hopefully a desirable piece given his low salary and positional obsolescence given the presence of Brown and Hayward).
I'd hate to lose Crowder, and the one place he may not be redundant is at smallball 4 (which will be pretty important for the Celtics if KO and others depart) to create cap room for Hayward. Maybe Brown can do that eventually, but right now, at least, Brown and Hayward both seem to me to be more of a fit at the wing spots.

I wonder what the cap situation looks like if Bradley and Crowder depart while Fultz and Hayward come in. Do they have resources in that scenario to address their lack of bigs beyond Horford and Zizic?
 

lovegtm

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He also knows that if Danny Ainge were to offer him a franchise reshaping, godfather package of the 2017 pick, the 2018 pick and Brown (and presumably salary cap filler) that he will never again get a better offer for his star. .
Westbrook is 28, and his game is based heavily on athleticism. I think Danny would have to think very very hard about doing that trade for 2 of those assets, let alone 3.

The track record of consensus #1s suggests that there is a >25% chance Fultz becomes a player of similar value to Westbrook, and when you factor in age and team control, along with the chance Russ declines rapidly, it's very close as to whether Fultz for Russ straight up is a good deal.
 

ALiveH

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For comparison, the KG trade back in the day basically had two good assets in it and Fultz is probably better than either of them (Big Al and what would turn into the #6 overall pick) plus a pupu platter of rotation players, former draft busts and salary filler. So, I agree it's probably two real assets and a bunch of filler. (super-speculative, will never happen)
 

DannyDarwinism

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Markelle's certainly looking more ready for that life (of finishing at the rim in the NBA) than Lonzo or De'Aaron. He turns 19 in a week. I cannot wait to watch him play and develop as a Celtic alongside his fellow flat-topped wing man.
 

lovegtm

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Markelle's certainly looking more ready for that life (of finishing at the rim in the NBA) than Lonzo or De'Aaron. He turns 19 in a week. I cannot wait to watch him play and develop as a Celtic alongside his fellow flat-topped wing man.
Given Danny's predilection for jacked, athletic dudes (phrasing!), I'm guessing all thoughts of trading Fultz are now banished from his mind.

Imagine what package he would have offered for a Justise Winslow who was also a scorer--all of the picks ever created?
 

DannyDarwinism

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Given Danny's predilection for jacked, athletic dudes (phrasing!), I'm guessing all thoughts of trading Fultz are now banished from his mind.

Imagine what package he would have offered for a Justise Winslow who was also a scorer--all of the picks ever created?
Semi Ojeleye might wanna start looking for a Boston realtor.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Is HRB on Bell too? This'll be the second year in a row we'll have the same undersized upperclassmen big from out west as our second round guy. Though I think I like Bell more than I liked Siakam because of his defensive ceiling.
I hate to disappoint but no it wasn't me on Bell. My binkies consist of Markkanen, Anunoby, Jeanne, Pasecniks (he may be my favorite), and Dozier. There are other undervalued guys I like but this draft for me isn't like last year when I had a longer list......Jaylen, Dunn, LeVert, Zizic, Zubac, Siakam, Dejounte Murray, and Bolomboy.
 

Kid T

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I'd hate to lose Crowder, and the one place he may not be redundant is at smallball 4 (which will be pretty important for the Celtics if KO and others depart) to create cap room for Hayward. Maybe Brown can do that eventually, but right now, at least, Brown and Hayward both seem to me to be more of a fit at the wing spots.

I wonder what the cap situation looks like if Bradley and Crowder depart while Fultz and Hayward come in. Do they have resources in that scenario to address their lack of bigs beyond Horford and Zizic?
I think Hayward (outside shooter) and Brown (slasher) complement each other better in a smaller lineup. I know Brown may not be ready yet - but i think with a year under his belt and an offseason to work on his game, he should be in a reasonable position to compete. Crowder is more of a finished product, but he also may represent our best/easiest trade asset without having to take back very much salary (if at all) while getting fair value.

As for the second part of your post - I think if DA was willing to renounce all of their FA and be willing to trade both Bradley and Crowder, there might be $7-9 million to address a big and sign Hayward. However, i think the solution to that problem exists in the 2018 draft where multiple talented big men are expected to be available.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I think Hayward (outside shooter) and Brown (slasher) complement each other better in a smaller lineup. I know Brown may not be ready yet - but i think with a year under his belt and an offseason to work on his game, he should be in a reasonable position to compete. Crowder is more of a finished product, but he also may represent our best/easiest trade asset without having to take back very much salary (if at all) while getting fair value.

As for the second part of your post - I think if DA was willing to renounce all of their FA and be willing to trade both Bradley and Crowder, there might be $7-9 million to address a big and sign Hayward. However, i think the solution to that problem exists in the 2018 draft where multiple talented big men are expected to be available.
We already addressed young bigs in last years drafting of Zizic (5) and Yabusele (4) although somehow landing Ayton with the Nets '18 pick would be a major coup.
 

DJnVa

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So is Kyrie Irving what people would expect Fultz to be?

I'm not talking about the "the chances of any single player actually being that good aren't that high!!!" I know that. But I'm talking about what people see with his skills and size---is that the type of player we could be getting?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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So is Kyrie Irving what people would expect Fultz to be?

I'm not talking about the "the chances of any single player actually being that good aren't that high!!!" I know that. But I'm talking about what people see with his skills and size---is that the type of player we could be getting?
Fultz is taller and longer than Irving and probably a better athlete than Irving, although Irving probably is, well, more elusive. With his size and ability to score on 3 levels and being able to get where he wants without much effort, scouts comp him more to Harden than Irving.
 

ALiveH

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Hard to tell with Fultz on defense. Bad coaching, dysfunctional situation, he was their whole offense, played a lot of minutes. He has the physical tools, and will probably have to earn his minutes with defensive effort in the beginning for Boston.

Offensively, Harden seems like a ceiling for the style of player Fultz could be on offense (size, passing, scoring on 3 levels). Fultz isn't as athletically explosive as Westbrook. He likely won't be as great a ballhandler as Kyrie (who might be best in the league).
 

HomeRunBaker

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One thing nobody has brought up is Fultz' knee checking out. He missed two small stretches of games in the final month of the season to knee soreness.

If this is a concern to Ainge (or if his smooth approach to the game is a concern) it would not surprise me at all for Ainge to swap with Phoenix (4) or Sacramento (5) with the latter having more intriguing prospects to include in Cauley-Stein and Labissiere. I'll also throw one out there that I've got my eye on that typically doesn't happen within a conference much less a division.......Fultz, Avery Bradley, and our #1 pick in '18 (not the Nets pick) for Porzingis. The Phil met with Kristaps brother last week and reportedly the conversation did not go well.......if Phil wishes to maximize his return for Porzingis dealing with Ainge for Fultz is the ticket.