Evaluating the 2017 Red Sox

What is the most pressing need for this team?

  • Improving the defense

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    197

grimshaw

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I was going to go with "Fixing the 2017 Red Sox" but am not sure it is quite relevant until this gets into early June or so, or until they fall 7 games or more behind in 1st place.

Among the weaknesses on this team through the first quarter of the season has been the defense, the offense from the corners, DH and CF. Aggressive, intelligent base running was a big strength last year, and we're not seeing that as much. Some would also argue that Farrell isn't pushing the right buttons or getting the team ready.

On the plus side, the bullpen has been a surprise to some, given their two dominant set up guys have yet to throw a pitch. Catcher defense is excellent, and Vazquez has taken a step forward. Xander and Mookie have played close to their level with possible improvement on the way. Benintendi has played well for the most part before this first major slump of his career.

Clearly the team is underachieving at just one game above .500 when most had them as a top 5 team in the majors at worst, and the top threat to the Cubs repeating at best.

Personally, I believe it is as simple as getting Hanley (wRC+ 97 as a DH) and JBJ (abysmal with signs of life) going. The lineup is top heavy and has yet to gel for extended stretches. David Price returning healthy is the other major improvement.

What do you all think will cure what ails them? Is this team really underachieving, or have we over-estimated the talent?
 
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Devizier

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The team has the third best rotation and sixth best bullpen by fWAR (third best bullpen by WPA).
Their defense has been roughly average by any of the (small sample) defensive metrics.
Their offense is below average by WRC+, fWAR, and runs scored.

Although I'm a little concerned about Pedroia, Ramirez, and Bradley, their problems are nothing compared to third base.

Pablo and Marco were awful this year, but they look Ruthian in comparison to Marrero. I know that most teams look pretty weak when they lose three guys at a position, but even a little organizational depth, in the form of replacement level filler, would have been helpful here.
 

Byrdbrain

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I voted 3B but it really is the offense in general it has been so weak yet looking at each player it seems like it should at least be above average.
If Price comes back and if Smith can get healthy that will help but none of it really matters if you don't score any runs.
As for Farrell all I have to say is meh. He certainly doesn't impress me and I question much of what he does but I don't understand blaming him for players not playing well. It won't bother me much if he ends up getting fired but I also don't expect it to change anything.
 

dhappy42

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The team is fine. Slow out of the gate due to the flu, Price's and Wright's injuries and missing #2 and #3 relievers. And some hitting slump-bunching. Better to finish hot than to start hot anyway.
 

ledsox

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It's about Hanley and JBJ doing more. Once Hanley heats up I think the offense will start to gel. His 97 WRC+ is not going to cut it obviously. I think we can deal with 3B being a black hole but not if we don't get a lot more from DH and CF.
I still feel confident this will be a good offensive club in the not too distant future.
 

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The Sox have the same record as the Cubs and are one half game behind Saint Tito's Indians. The Giants are a trainwreck--again--as are the Blue Jays, Mets, and Pirates. All these teams were "supposed to" be good. Clearly there is a lot of shitting managing going on. Get Price, Smith, and yes, Sandoval back, and this team will be fine. Hanley's power will come, just as it did last year. Xander isn't going to finish the year without a home run. Benintendi isn't as good as his start or as bad as his slump. He'll hit just fine.
Patience, Grasshopper.
 

DeadlySplitter

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the pitching is overall good and why we're still hanging above .500. But there is zero depth in the rotation, so one more major injury and that could be an issue. The bullpen is likely to regress outside Kimbrel to middle-of-the-pack... Barnes/Hembree have begun doing that for sure. We will not win the division if Smith is not effective as the setup man down the stretch.

the team once again feels like it is underperforming with RISP. Obviously numbers should even out but it feels like we suck more than other teams in this department. Too many games with 10+ hits not being converted to enough runs. the baserunning is still too aggressive at times.

the defense has been the most surprising thing so far - just atrocious. it's starting to even out but there were some yikes moments there. 3B outside of Marrero is still likely to be an unfixable black hole - just wait here for Devers, even if it's late next year.
 

nvalvo

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I voted for health. Hanley is still hitting more than 40% of his BIP "hard" without the numbers to show for it; Bradley got hurt, was terrible for two weeks, but now has an .845 OPS in his last ten games. They'll pan out. Moreland's been fine, as have the catchers.

Injuries to Sandoval, Hernandez and Holt have put us in a very bad place at third. We have some pretty impressive pitching on the DL, too. Health is the answer: Sandoval is headed to Pawtucket this weekend, Price is already there, Carson Smith is throwing bullpens, but Thornburg and Holt are in more of a holding pattern.

If a cheap 3B becomes available, I wouldn't object, but I don't want to devote serious prospect resources to a Todd Frazier type who may not be any better than Sandoval. Devers in September.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Starting pitching depth is a concern but with Sale having a career year with the possibility of an all-time top 20 season for anyone and with ERod emerging, Price returning and Porcello and Pomeranz being well above average talents we have an extremely strong 1 - 5.

Disappointing that Thornburg appears to be nowhere near returning (arriving?) but Kimbrel has been extraordinary, Kelly looks to be arriving, Hembree (last night notwithstanding) far more reliable than I anticipated, Barnes useful, Abad surprisingly reliable and Scott pretty good. This bullpen is strong and poised to be elite if Smith and/or Thornburg join in.

3B has obviously been a problem but if Pablo is healthy I still think he can contribute. Devers takes the pressure off to make a(other) farm-raiding trade since the future at that position looks positive. I think we'll see him in August and, while I don't think it's likely that he'll step right in and be a huge Correa-like addition this year, it's a possibility. Outfield is a strength (JBJ is starting to come around with the bat and Benintendi will break out of the slump soon enough - their defence is top of the charts). Bogaerts isn't hitting for power but he's doing everything else, Pedey is steady and I'm fine with Hanley and Moreland at DH/1B. Catching is a real strength.

So the most glaring weakness is 3B - a concern, yes, but not going to sink this team even if nothing gets better. I voted 'grasshopper' as I think we'll start winning in bunches as the warm weather arrives. They haven't had a day yet under .500 - the world isn't ending and when the winning streak starts I won't be surprised.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
the defense has been the most surprising thing so far - just atrocious.
The Sox have allowed the second-most errors in the AL, but 40 percent of them are from one position. They've given up 16 unearned runs, just 2.5 more than league average. By advanced metrics they're grading out average-ish. I wouldn't say defense in general has been a strength, but it certainly hasn't been "atrocious".
 
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JBJ_HOF

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Bogaerts is -8 defensive runs saved, 3rd worst of any player in baseball. His metrics at SS have been bad, average, bad, and now real bad. Dombrowski acknowledged them last winter, saying he's an offensive SS and doesn't hurt the team with his defense.
 

dhappy42

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I never fully understood the rationale of Bogaerts playing SS instead of 3B. His Jeter-worship isn't a good reason.
 

simplicio

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3B and health are huge, but I'd settle for a lower bar: I want good Robbie Ross back.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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We will not win the division if Smith is not effective as the setup man down the stretch.
Who knows what this guy is going to bring to the table, but I'll put my money against him being some sort of lights out setup guy. The guy has pitched 4 innings since the end of 2015. How many guys have ever come back from TJ surgery mid-season and stepped into the setup role on a division winner? No pressure, kid.
 

MikeM

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Who knows what this guy is going to bring to the table, but I'll put my money against him being some sort of lights out setup guy. The guy has pitched 4 innings since the end of 2015. How many guys have ever come back from TJ surgery mid-season and stepped into the setup role on a division winner? No pressure, kid.
Agreed. The surrounding savior expectations and slotting him in as our "missing #3" guy talk has gotten wayyy ahead of itself since day 1 of this past off season imo.

As far as our 2017 season goes the bullpen has over-achieved (with a broken bust and the complete maybe above as backup for when that regression does happen), the line up core was/is overrated (it was never going to be a top 5 offense), and 3B is a completely lost cause atm. Even if we heat up and get that firing on all cylinders stretch in the areas where we can be good/great, as constructed and from an overall standpoint the team still probably has more flirt then finish potential.

Where we stand with David Price a month from now will obviously go a long way towards determining what kind of realistic making the playoffs shot we end up having though I guess. A strong comeback there and maybe a partially salary dump driven flip for a real 3B option and who knows. Two WC slots and such.
 

TheoShmeo

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I doubt that Price will be the difference maker. Even if he is the Price of before he got to Boston, the Sox problems run a lot deeper than one starter.

And the elephant in the room remains the manager. I'm not sure what happened in 2013. I guess they just overcame him or he was better that year. But to me, he's awful, and definitely part of the problem. To be clear, I'm not claiming it's all on him or that their many deficiencies are his fault. He's just not something that this team can make up for.
 

streeter88

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If "Getting a new leader" can be stretched to include clubhouse leadership, then we're on to something. The 2017 team as constructed needs to excel at situational hitting, defense, and pitching. So far, the team is really missing the first two of those, and having a clear leader - or leadership group also acceptable - would go a long way toward improving the team's ability to win those close and late games like the Cards games, as opposed to how they played in Oakland.

Also, TheoShmeo is 100% right that Farrell contributes to that leadership void, making it doubly important that the team has its own internal leadership to overcome him. It's not the whole coaching group because the pitching coaches seem to be pushing the right buttons, but Farrell is not.

(Edited to add point about Farrell)
 

AB in DC

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I doubt that Price will be the difference maker. Even if he is the Price of before he got to Boston, the Sox problems run a lot deeper than one starter..
The Red Sox are 1-7 in games started by Wright, Kendrick, and Velazquez. If they had gone 4-4 there with Price (which is really the minimum we should expect) then the team would be 24-18 and on a 93-win pace.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Who knows what this guy is going to bring to the table, but I'll put my money against him being some sort of lights out setup guy. The guy has pitched 4 innings since the end of 2015.
And he has a total of 81 major league innings, period. We're not talking about a guy with a long established track record of big league success. We're talking about a young pitcher who had one great year and then blew his elbow out. It would be great to get a significant contribution from him, and it's possible, but it would be foolish to count on it.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The Red Sox are 1-7 in games started by Wright, Kendrick, and Velazquez. If they had gone 4-4 there with Price (which is really the minimum we should expect) then the team would be 24-18 and on a 93-win pace.
I think it's as simple as this. Getting Price back will be a big boost to one of the weakest spots on the team. Yes, there have also been lackluster performances at various positions (3B being a black hole) but in most cases, there's plenty of reason to expect that to improve without changes in personnel.

At the quarter pole, they're .500 in a stacked division. Things could be a hell of a lot worse all things considered.
 

TheoShmeo

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It's fun to watch the joy his D'Backs team plays with.
I haven't seen an inning of that. But I remember what the Sox looked like with Lovullo. The temptation was to say that it was a small sample, which it was, and that like Bruce Cassidy with the Bs, a full season is a different animal than a portion of one. But I think staying with JF was a mistake and while it's true what folks are saying about Price versus the dreck they've had to run out there, that doesn't change the fact that this team often looks listless and makes mental mistakes, like running itself into outs. Or that JF makes too many Xs and Os mistakes.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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I never fully understood the rationale of Bogaerts playing SS instead of 3B. His Jeter-worship isn't a good reason.
Because he's a great bat at SS usually, and good enough with the glove usually.

That combination has already won him two silver sluggers and one all-star selection.

He would absolutely be an asset to the team playing there, if the Sox could field a credible 3B option, too.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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For the record, Lovullo has the same Dbacks that went 69-93 at 26-18. Elephant in the room indeed.
Yeah, the same DBacks, except for having Greinke back to being Greinke, Pollock back in the lineup with 11 SB and a 101 OPS+ replacing Michael Bourn's 73, Taijuan Walker added to the rotation with a 3.46 ERA and a 3.43 FIP replacing the awful Shelby Miller, Chris Owings and his 116 OPS+ replacing Nick Ahmed's 46, and David Peralta's 118 OPS+ basically treading water with the loss of Jean Segura's 122. Oh, and Zack Godley's 1.93 ERA and 3.15 FIP replaced Brandon Shipley's 5.27 ERA and 5.76 FIP.

But sure, same team and it's all the manager.
 

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Yeah, the same DBacks, except for having Greinke back to being Greinke, Pollock back in the lineup with 11 SB and a 101 OPS+ replacing Michael Bourn's 73, Taijuan Walker added to the rotation with a 3.46 ERA and a 3.43 FIP replacing the awful Shelby Miller, Chris Owings and his 116 OPS+ replacing Nick Ahmed's 46, and David Peralta's 118 OPS+ basically treading water with the loss of Jean Segura's 122. Oh, and Zack Godley's 1.93 ERA and 3.15 FIP replaced Brandon Shipley's 5.27 ERA and 5.76 FIP.

But sure, same team and it's all the manager.
Well yeah, but he brought the JOY
 

MikeM

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The Red Sox are 1-7 in games started by Wright, Kendrick, and Velazquez. If they had gone 4-4 there with Price (which is really the minimum we should expect) then the team would be 24-18 and on a 93-win pace.
Yeah, this is basically what I keep telling myself. The MFY were better then a lot of people wanted to give them credit for this winter, but I'm still not sold they or the O's are some lock to be the 90 wins or more team that probably takes the division. Plus the runner up/s still have a fairly decent chance of getting that WC spot.

I mean it's not like we are talking about a 95 wins or go home bar anymore. Which is good, because the dominate dynasty we had hoped would emerge out of this current crop of young players probably isn't coming imo. Which isn't to say they aren't very good as a whole or anything either btw, but I just don't see it being enough to carry the load to a point where we can afford to be a little unlucky and/or thrive while not having a better overall set of complimentary pieces in place. Adding Sale this winter was obviously huge, but DD basically struck out from an overall standpoint everywhere else (which isn't meant as a direct knock on Moreland, who has been solid but probably wasn't going to be enough offensively while conceding the opposite side for 2017), and this team really needed those middle-of-the-order-threat/BP/3B upgrades that didn't come.
 

kazuneko

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I never fully understood the rationale of Bogaerts playing SS instead of 3B. His Jeter-worship isn't a good reason.
Not that I'd really endorse moving X from SS (at least at this point of his career) but it is admittedly a bit frustrating to have Marrero in the lineup and not be able to benefit from his biggest skill: defense at SS.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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Yeah, this is basically what I keep telling myself. The MFY were better then a lot of people wanted to give them credit for this winter, but I'm still not sold they or the O's are some lock to be the 90 wins or more team that probably takes the division. Plus the runner up/s still have a fairly decent chance of getting that WC spot.

I mean it's not like we are talking about a 95 wins or go home bar anymore. Which is good, because the dominate dynasty we had hoped would emerge out of this current crop of young players probably isn't coming imo. Which isn't to say they aren't very good as a whole or anything either btw, but I just don't see it being enough to carry the load to a point where we can afford to be a little unlucky and/or thrive while not having a better overall set of complimentary pieces in place. Adding Sale this winter was obviously huge, but DD basically struck out from an overall standpoint everywhere else (which isn't meant as a direct knock on Moreland, who has been solid but probably wasn't going to be enough offensively while conceding the opposite side for 2017), and this team really needed those middle-of-the-order-threat/BP/3B upgrades that didn't come.
And it's not just this year. If you take out the high profile acquisitions of Price, Sale and Kimbrel none of DD's acquisitions have done anything. Carson Smith. Tyler Thornberg. Chris Young currently has negative WAR. Drew Pomeranz has been mediocre and way below the acquisition cost. Rutledge has been unusable. Moreland has been ok, sure, but not particularly good.

Turning top prospects and huge amounts of money into Kimbrel, Sale and Price is nice, but you pay a GM to figure out how to get value out of lesser acquisitions and DD has been pretty much terrible at those. And that has exposed us, at third base and in the bullpen.
 

BestGameEvah

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For the record, Lovullo has the same Dbacks that went 69-93 at 26-18. Elephant in the room indeed.
I saw on the DBacks website that in 2016, under Coach Dave McKay,
the team had the best stolen base % in majors. McKay is 1st base coach/outfield coach/baserunning coach. Stealing bases at 80% this yr.
 

Al Zarilla

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Somebody's sarcasm meter is malfunctioning here--could be mine, but I thought the post you were responding to was tongue in cheek.
I thought Clear's post (D-Backs play with joy) was in earnest and the sarcasm started after that. I'm sure that if we get more games like yesterday, there will be plenty of brotherly love, high fives, hugs and joy in our dugout.
 

grimshaw

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And it's not just this year. If you take out the high profile acquisitions of Price, Sale and Kimbrel none of DD's acquisitions have done anything. Carson Smith. Tyler Thornberg. Chris Young currently has negative WAR. Drew Pomeranz has been mediocre and way below the acquisition cost. Rutledge has been unusable. Moreland has been ok, sure, but not particularly good.

Turning top prospects and huge amounts of money into Kimbrel, Sale and Price is nice, but you pay a GM to figure out how to get value out of lesser acquisitions and DD has been pretty much terrible at those. And that has exposed us, at third base and in the bullpen.
Eh - they gave up Wade Miley for Smith and replaced Miley with Price. He wasn't very good there. Low risk, high reward. Though maybe if they hang onto Miley, they don't trade for Pomeranz. Too many factors to consider, but none of us wept for his exit since the pen was a weakness at the time.

Young was good last year. This year they have faced an obscenely low amount of lefties and he was forced into duty vs a lot of righties.

The Pomeranz trade could haunt them, but Espinoza hasn't thrown a pitch yet this season and has been shut down twice with shoulder issues.

So far Shaw was a mistake, but I don't think he would have stayed quiet as a bench guy. He was complaining towards the end of the season so they cut bait. They got something for him - potential damaged goods or not. Congrats Brewers.

Moreland was paid as a bench player and he's been bench player-like or a bit better. The fault lies with Farrell for not getting Hanley to play 1B if he is indeed healthy. Moreland shouldn't be an every day player.

Rutledge signed a minor league deal and is costing them 600k a year while active. I don't get managements interest in him either, but it's a depth move.
 
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Snodgrass'Muff

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Among first basemen Moreland has the 18th highest wRC+, 2nd most doubles and the 13th best OBP. He's not playing like a bench player.
 

Byrdbrain

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Yeah of all those moves Pomeranz is the most questionable. Even if Espinoza never throws another pitch you could have gotten something better for him at the time. Of course if they held on to him and he didn't throw another pitch then it could have been even worse.
Shaw looks at this point but he stunk in the second half last year and I sure as hell thought his first half was a mirage. It could still turn if Thornburg ends up being good and Shaw reverts to what most thought he was.
Both of those seem less likely as time passes however.

I guess Miley would have been moderately useful this year but he is a bottom end rotation guy, if he stays who knows if he is still even on the roster.

We really can't complain about Young, Moreland and Rutledge. They are who we thought they were.
 

glennhoffmania

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Yeah, the same DBacks, except for having Greinke back to being Greinke, Pollock back in the lineup with 11 SB and a 101 OPS+ replacing Michael Bourn's 73, Taijuan Walker added to the rotation with a 3.46 ERA and a 3.43 FIP replacing the awful Shelby Miller, Chris Owings and his 116 OPS+ replacing Nick Ahmed's 46, and David Peralta's 118 OPS+ basically treading water with the loss of Jean Segura's 122. Oh, and Zack Godley's 1.93 ERA and 3.15 FIP replaced Brandon Shipley's 5.27 ERA and 5.76 FIP.

But sure, same team and it's all the manager.
I agree with your point, and I don't believe that Lovullo would necessarily be the key to fixing this team, but I think what some people are trying to argue is that some managers get maximum production out of players and some, ie., Farrell, do not. You can disagree with the premise, but simply pointing to the solid production out of all of those AZ guys doesn't disprove the point. It actually may support it.

Let's flip it around. If Farrell was managing Walker and Godley, would they be doing just as well? It's obviously impossible to say but I think it's at least fair to suggest that Farrell is developing a track record for not making the most of the roster he's given.
 

MikeM

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So far Shaw was a mistake, but I don't think he would have stayed quiet as a bench guy. He was complaining towards the end of the season so they cut bait. They got something for him - potential damaged goods or not. Congrats Brewers.

Moreland was paid as a bench player and he's been bench player-like or a bit better. The fault lies with Farrell for not getting Hanley to play 1B if he is indeed healthy. Moreland shouldn't be an every day player
Moreland didn't sign here to be a bench player, and regardless how much much min/max logic possibility people painted around it at the time to distract from the fact that he was indeed essentially replacing David Ortiz, Hanley moving to mostly full time DH was all but inevitable from the moment that went down. We got lucky with an aging Hanley and those 147 games in 2016. Doing everything possible to make sure his injury prone butt stays on the field for the entire season post-Ortiz was going to trump a need to max out Chris Young's at bats.

I'm not going to hindsight complain too much on Shaw...because it is Travis Shaw. But he would of only had to have been quiet for a couple of weeks tops. Pablo re-emerging as more then the terrible baseball player/third baseman he was when he completely fell out a full year previous was always a pipe dream at best, which would/should of then left Shaw getting the nod just based on his ability (and experience in comparison to the other options) to adequately field the position alone.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Yeah of all those moves Pomeranz is the most questionable. Even if Espinoza never throws another pitch you could have gotten something better for him at the time.
Who was available at the time that was cost-controlled and better? They were desperate for a 5th starter or else it was going to be Henry Owens every 5th day. If Price comes back next week and we have no further injuries I think we've got one of the strongest starting 5's in baseball. Drew Pomeranz is pretty damn good for a #5 starter.
 

DanoooME

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Yeah of all those moves Pomeranz is the most questionable. Even if Espinoza never throws another pitch you could have gotten something better for him at the time. Of course if they held on to him and he didn't throw another pitch then it could have been even worse.
Oh? And who was that? Here's an article about the SP trade market. Who was a better option that wasn't going to cost more, both in salary and prospect capital? Also understand that the in-division options are likely not available to the Sox so that limits the pool even more.

Edit: Damn you, UK
 

doctorogres

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I agree with your point, and I don't believe that Lovullo would necessarily be the key to fixing this team, but I think what some people are trying to argue is that some managers get maximum production out of players and some, ie., Farrell, do not. You can disagree with the premise, but simply pointing to the solid production out of all of those AZ guys doesn't disprove the point. It actually may support it.

Let's flip it around. If Farrell was managing Walker and Godley, would they be doing just as well? It's obviously impossible to say but I think it's at least fair to suggest that Farrell is developing a track record for not making the most of the roster he's given.
Except his point is backed up with the Diamondback's additions this year and their statistical contributions this year, which he cited, but there is almost nothing you can look at to answer your hypothetical situation. The Red Sox are .3 off their pythag, and the D'backs are 1.4 games worse than theirs.

The Sox have not been great at converting runners on base into runs, but that's just bad luck. Hopefully, it will change.