Bogaerts: We miss Papi

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Scott Lauber ESPN Staff Writer
Why have Red Sox struggled to score early in games this season? "David (Ortiz) is not here," Xander Bogaerts said. "He was a huge part of our team the years that I've been here. We definitely miss him. We've got to do it without him."

***

What does this say about the mindset of the players on offense? What does it say about X? How do they snap out of it?
 

soxhop411

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Scott Lauber ESPN Staff Writer
Why have Red Sox struggled to score early in games this season? "David (Ortiz) is not here," Xander Bogaerts said. "He was a huge part of our team the years that I've been here. We definitely miss him. We've got to do it without him."

***

What does this say about the mindset of the players on offense? What does it say about X? How do they snap out of it?
Full quote (both via Tim Britton‏)



Tim Britton‏ @TimBritton 32m32 minutes ago
Replying to @TimBritton
Bogaerts mentioned intimidation factor of Ortiz. So did some pitchers I talked to about the Sox lineup:


 

JohntheBaptist

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Well without judging anyone, that's a bad sign to me. I'm obviously jumping to my first of a few conclusions here but I don't think he'd say that if that wasn't a feeling in the clubhouse. There's a weird "vibe" around the team to me. That's 100% substance free, but I'm not saying I'm right, either--maybe others disagree, by all means I'd love to be convinced.

He's sorta right in the sense that this team could use another legit power hitter, but yeah Xander seems a bit more candid than you'd probably prefer, probably smarter to keep a lid on this.
 

DeadlySplitter

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I was thinking some of our guys may be getting less good pitches to hit with Papi gone, but that doesn't really explain much of what's going on.

Farrell better get X into his office tomorrow and screw his head on straight.
 

JimD

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Mitch Moreland is batting .307 with a 922 OPS. Only 2 HR's and 9 RBI, but still - if you told me a few months ago that he'd start out this way, I'd have felt pretty good about the Sox offense getting off to a fast start in April.
 

StuckOnYouk

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Maybe Xander can help make up for the lack of Papi power by swinging with both arms.

Hell maybe this is the Sox way of sending out a bat symbol over the skies of the DR.
 

The Mort Report

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I think a lot of people are reacting to this the wrong way. What's the easiest way to deflect the question that can't really be answered right now by jokingly saying the obvious? I feel like he was just stating the obvious to take pressure off the question.

Put it this way, if the Red Sox were struggling after Manny was gone and Ortiz said "because Manny is gone" everyone would be calling Ortiz a great leader for taking the pressure off the team and deflecting it
 

Van Everyman

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Um, no. They'd say he was making excuses. Which I don't think Xander is, really, but reporters have to glom on to something I suppose.
 

LesterFan

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It doesn't sound so bad when you read the quote in its full context. He was asked about the difference between scoring last year and this year. The first thing that came to mind was Ortiz. He was obviously a big difference maker, no? The way Scott Lauber worded that makes it sound like Bogaerts went out of his way to mention they miss Ortiz. I don't think that's the case. Now, if he was asked, "why have you guys struggled to score?" and mentioned David Ortiz being gone, then that's a problem.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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I think a lot of people are reacting to this the wrong way. What's the easiest way to deflect the question that can't really be answered right now by jokingly saying the obvious? I feel like he was just stating the obvious to take pressure off the question.
This. Obviously they miss him, and obviously becoming a fully functional offensive team without him is a work in progress. That's not an excuse, and it's not saying too much, it's just reality. Saying it doesn't make it any harder to overcome it.
 

MikeM

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Looking like those "lock to be a top 5 offense" predictions this winter were putting a little too much stock into 2016's first half splits.

Hanley and Pedroia will get better going forward, but beyond that I'm not too crazy about the chances that the overall problem fixes itself into anything even remotely dominate. I'm not even really sure how you go about improving on that given our roster makeup either.

Maybe you end up taking a buy low flyer on Frazier latter on I guess?
 

johnnywayback

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If Pedroia and Bogaerts and Ramirez return to form as I expect they will, this is indeed a top 5 offense, even if Moreland regresses a bit. If they don't, then this team is screwed in a way that Todd Frazier can't help.
 

MikeM

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If Pedroia and Bogaerts and Ramirez return to form as I expect they will, this is indeed a top 5 offense, even if Moreland regresses a bit. If they don't, then this team is screwed in a way that Todd Frazier can't help.
Moreland is going to regress, and Benintendi isn't ending the year with a .347/.419/.440 batting line either.

I don't think any of us really knows what Xander's true "form" is atm.
 

Boggs26

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Moreland is going to regress, and Benintendi isn't ending the year with a .347/.419/.440 batting line either.

I don't think any of us really knows what Xander's true "form" is atm.
While you're probably right about Benintendi, it's not out of the realm of possibility for him to go .310/.380/.500 or so based on his major and minor league career to date. So I'm not going to write him off as a definite regression yet.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Todd Frazier? He's not the answer. Not by a long long shot.

If Bogaerts, Pedroia, and Ramirez don't pick up the pace and hit as they have, there is no quick, add-a-bat fix that will make any difference, even Ortiz.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Betts, Pedroia and Ramirez rounding into expected (and hoped) form will be the answer. Both Betts and Hanley are lagging but all 3 had some sort of disruption in their training.
X and JBJ are the second two most important pieces to the offensive puzzle and both are somewhat lagging on hopeful expections too.
All they need to do is score two stinkin runs in games Sale starts and we'll have what? 3 extra wins at least
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Betts is hitting .310/.380/.465 at present. He's not lagging at all, unless you think because he was a 30+ HR guy last year, he will always be one.
 

TheoShmeo

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It's not at all surprising that the team misses Papi's production and the impact he has on opposing pitchers, thereby making it easier for the guys around him to perform. Many pitchers have talked about the affect that having to deal with a big booper has on them during the course of a game.

DD chose to stay under the lux tax and passed on the chance to add someone like Edwin E. With all respect to Mitch Moreland, and he has exceeded expectations thus far, I think that decision -- unless remedied -- will dog them all year.

They do miss Papi. But worse, they miss that the team chose not to adequately replace him.
 

BaseballJones

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Maybe April here is just about survival. Injuries, no Price, the awful flu, getting adjusted to life without Ortiz... if they can be a .500 team at the end of April, maybe that's not so bad, all things considered.
 

phenweigh

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The Sox are scoring at 3.71 runs per game. In 2014, they scored 3.91 runs per game with David Ortiz playing in 142 games. Granted, 2014 was a down year for Papi by his standards, but an OPS of 0.873 isn't horrible. So Ortiz alone isn't the issue.
 

PayrodsFirstClutchHit

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The Sox are scoring at 3.71 runs per game. In 2014, they scored 3.91 runs per game with David Ortiz playing in 142 games. Granted, 2014 was a down year for Papi by his standards, but an OPS of 0.873 isn't horrible. So Ortiz alone isn't the issue.
The average runs per game stat is misleading. The Sox have been shutout 3 times and have scored 1 run and 2 runs in the past 8 games. They have also scored and 8 and a 6 in two of the 3 wins.

They are not going to succeed with 2 or 3 high scoring wins every so often to improve the per game average.
 

BaseballJones

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It's not at all surprising that the team misses Papi's production and the impact he has on opposing pitchers, thereby making it easier for the guys around him to perform. Many pitchers have talked about the affect that having to deal with a big booper has on them during the course of a game.

DD chose to stay under the lux tax and passed on the chance to add someone like Edwin E. With all respect to Mitch Moreland, and he has exceeded expectations thus far, I think that decision -- unless remedied -- will dog them all year.

They do miss Papi. But worse, they miss that the team chose not to adequately replace him.
Let's assume that the replacement was Moreland. I know you can't really do this because one guy impacts another, etc. But compare Ortiz' 2016 April with Moreland's 2017 April.

Ortiz: 91 pa, 12 r, 25 h, 11 2b, 0 3b, 5 hr, 19 rbi, .321/.418/.654/1.071
Moreland: 88 pa, 10 r, 23 h, 11 2b, 0 3b, 2 hr, 9 rbi, .295/.375/.513/.888

I don't know how many more runs Ortiz' April 2016 is worth compared to Moreland's April 2017 (which hasn't been completed yet, of course). A handful, I'm sure. The Sox are 26th in all of MLB in runs scored right now. Only KC has scored fewer runs in the AL. The Sox are 1st in the AL in batting average and 4th in the AL in obp, so it's not like they're really having a hard time getting on base. But they're 13th in slg, and dead last in homers (just 11). 12th in total bases.

So right now they're basically a singles-hitting team producing very little-to-no power. They have a bunch of players capable of hitting homers. Here are the career high in home runs for their main lineup:

Moreland: 23
Pedroia: 21 (15 last year)
Bogaerts: 21
Sandoval: 25 (but he's more like a 15 homer guy)
Betts: 31
Hanley: 33 (30 last year)
Bradley: 26

So that's 7 guys all very capable of hitting 15+ homers. The TEAM power is there. They just haven't produced any power yet. If you pro-rate these guys power numbers over just a single month, this group of seven project to hit about 27 home runs among them (figuring Pedey and Pablo are really 15 homer guys). They are a LONG way from 27.

So the avg and obp are fine. It's simply that the power isn't there yet, but it should be. Hopefully they'll start hitting them in bunches.
 

yecul

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Baseball is a weird sport. When things are going well you point to something and when things are going bad you do the same. Is that something really the cause or is it just a something that is obvious and tangible and relate-able that can be articulated?

Ortiz is a huge presence in the lineup and in the clubhouse. His departure absolutely plays a role, but if he's out there hitting dingers with the bases empty then what's the difference? The team has too many guys not performing at the plate to consistently score runs.

Can they get there? Sure. The talent is there, but there are certainly reasons to think this team could fail to be a top scoring one. That said... they ain't this bad. The ship will turn. Facing quality pitching is not helping.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Last in the league in HRs with a gap to number 29 and middle of the pack in extra base hits means they need to string together too many hits and walks to score. Pitchers don't fear the power so they are pounding the strike zone and walks are significantly off from last year.

They now have six zero or one run games out of 21. (Over 28 percent, compared to 12 percent last year.). You virtually never win one of those. They need to start finding gaps, walls, and chalk, and hitting long balls, to loosen things up and force pitchers into higher stress pitching or they will remain run challenged. I know that's stating the obvious, but there will be a domino effect -- taxing bullpens in multi-game series, increasing pitch counts, making guys afraid to throw strikes, t's a domino effect and they can't tip even that first domino at the moment.
 

Merkle's Boner

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When the question posed to you is, "What's been different this year", I don't know how one can truthfully answer that without bringing up Papi. It is obviously "what is different".

Now, Xander should have followed up with a little Pitino-speak but he answered absolutely accurately.
 

BaseballJones

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When the question posed to you is, "What's been different this year", I don't know how one can truthfully answer that without bringing up Papi. It is obviously "what is different".

Now, Xander should have followed up with a little Pitino-speak but he answered absolutely accurately.
But "Papi" isn't a complete answer. What's different is not having Papi, sure, but it's also the other guys with plenty of power not producing any power at all. It's not Papi's fault that X and Pedey and Bradley and Betts haven't hit with any power yet.
 

Merkle's Boner

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But "Papi" isn't a complete answer. What's different is not having Papi, sure, but it's also the other guys with plenty of power not producing any power at all. It's not Papi's fault that X and Pedey and Bradley and Betts haven't hit with any power yet.
Yeah, I just think it would be tough to give that answer to a reporter.
 

SouthernBoSox

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They can blame David Ortiz all they want.... but Pedroia, Xander, Hanley and Braldey, who are absolutely a core part of this offense have lost an AVERAGE of .147 SLG this year. It's unbelievable. Guys who hit XBH just aren't hitting XBH's so far this year.
 

phenweigh

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The average runs per game stat is misleading. The Sox have been shutout 3 times and have scored 1 run and 2 runs in the past 8 games. They have also scored and 8 and a 6 in two of the 3 wins.

They are not going to succeed with 2 or 3 high scoring wins every so often to improve the per game average.
Variability is normal. They aren't going to succeed scoring less than 4 runs per game on average (see 2014). The point is blaming Papi's absence from the lineup is misguided.
 

dbn

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Take this for what - if anything - it's worth, but I calculated how many time the Red Sox have had a streak of 21 games scoring a total of 78 runs or fewer. I did it in two ways to account for all such streaks and for only unique streaks (i.e., contain no common games). I did the same exercise for RA of 80 or fewer.

Code:
yr wins RSstreak1 RSstreak2 RAsteak1 RAstreak2
16  93     0         0         52         4
15  78     34        3         12         2
14  71     49        5         15         1
13  97     0         0         53         5
12  69     16        1         25         3
11  90     0         0         33         4
10  89     1         1         18         2
So in the seasons they won > 90 games, they has zero such scoring droughts, and in 2010 when they won 89 games they had only one. In the good seasons they held opponents to 80 runs or fewer over 21 games more often, but even in the down years it happened.

edit: fixed a couple of win totals; I had their pythag wins in a couple places by accident.
 
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CoffeeNerdness

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If Pedroia and Bogaerts and Ramirez return to form as I expect they will, this is indeed a top 5 offense, even if Moreland regresses a bit. If they don't, then this team is screwed in a way that Todd Frazier can't help.
I'd be more optimistic if our two "old guys" hadn't already suffered leg injuries. They both have a history of gutting through injuries and underproducing and I wouldn't be shocked to see them scuffle through the AS break.
 

dbn

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To add something resembling commentary to that chart, I don't think that having a scoring drought such as they've had implies they won't win 90+ games. I only think that the chart shows that this is indeed an uncommonly bad streak for a good Red Sox team to have, but it likely will not be predictive regarding the rest of the season (given, e.g., the uncommon flu epidemic they suffered, etc.)
 

reggiecleveland

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This is much ado about nothing. It is funny though because the new guy taking Ortiz' ABs, Moreland is raking.

I only went to a few Sox games live, but Ortiz personality dominated the pregame ritual, BP. He had the intensity, focus and professionalism of a true HOF player. I compare his presence to watching Lebron, Kobe, when I saw them warmup. There was a palpable concentrated focus to their approach. Ortiz was the same in the box. But he was also a larger than life personality. Things just have to feel different. Not saying this is a cause, but when asked what's different it is an easy answer.
 

smastroyin

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Ortiz was remarkably consistent on a month to month basis. He had hardly any full months of just being terrible, though it did happen once in a while. But that kind of consistency raises the low water level. We all know that these guys have talent but for whatever reasons a bunch of them are performing at the low end of their abilities. Likely they will have streaks to make up for it later.

That said, I'll duck the rotten tomatoes as I say that this team is getting a 2011 feel about it to me.
 

mikeford

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Pedroia and Bogaerts have 1 XBH each this SEASON.

If this has ANYTHING to do with Ortiz, it's from a pure psychological standpoint. Unless Ortiz was doubling as hitting coach or something.
 

TheoShmeo

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Ortiz was remarkably consistent on a month to month basis. He had hardly any full months of just being terrible, though it did happen once in a while. But that kind of consistency raises the low water level. We all know that these guys have talent but for whatever reasons a bunch of them are performing at the low end of their abilities. Likely they will have streaks to make up for it later.

That said, I'll duck the rotten tomatoes as I say that this team is getting a 2011 feel about it to me.
No tomatoes from me.

I don't know if it's 2011, but they do look a little different. They seem sort of joyless to me. Most years since Papi arrived, and I actually remember it beginning a bit the year before with Carlos Baerga, the Sox have been characterized by lots of hugs and warmth on the bench. At the very least, that's what it looked like to me from the outside. This year looks a little different. They look more down the middle.

I know, most teams look lifeless when they score one run in two games. I noticed the joylessness thing earlier.

Bottom line: David is hard to replace in pretty much every way. His presence was huge, and not just production wise. That they are suffering an Ortiz Hangover (tied to actual numbers, team dynamics and impact on other guys in the line-up) is not surprising in the least.
 

dbn

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Damn, this thread + my ability to procrastinate by playing around with baseball numbers is getting to me today.

Just for fun I computed all 141 21-game Runs Scored running averages for each Red Sox season from 2010-2016 and subtracted them from the given season's 161-game average. N.B. that the data in each season are of course highly correlated so it's not obvious how to interpret the data. Anyhow, the distributions for each season vary quite a bit in shape and some are weird. I guess that's not surprising.

In the Red Sox's 90+ win seasons of late they've averaged ~5.3-5.4 RS/game. They are currently averaging 3.7 RS/game, or ~1.7 RS/game fewer. Let's assume/hope their current pace is an outlier. Most of the 2010-2016 seasons don't have 21-game average outliers that large, except for the 2015 season. IIRC, weren't they sending out a lot of JV lineups towards the end of 2015, though?

edit: in most of those seasons the largest negative outliers are ~0.8-1.2. Last season AL teams averaged 4.5 RS/game, so if the start to this season is a "typical outlier" (whatever that means, if anything) then we might expect the offense to be slightly above average for the total season. Again: grain of salt.
 
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flymrfreakjar

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Maybe being totally knocked out by a vicious stomach flu has still has some lingering effects? Puking your guts out for a week can do a number on you for quite a while afterwards, especially from a conditioning standpoint. Factor in that it was during a pretty critical period right at the end of ST and into the first few weeks, and I could see it being tough to get into a groove physically and mentally. Still feels like things will click, and some poor team's pitching staff is going to pay.
 

Number45forever

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No tomatoes from me.

I don't know if it's 2011, but they do look a little different. They seem sort of joyless to me. Most years since Papi arrived, and I actually remember it beginning a bit the year before with Carlos Baerga, the Sox have been characterized by lots of hugs and warmth on the bench. At the very least, that's what it looked like to me from the outside. This year looks a little different. They look more down the middle.

I know, most teams look lifeless when they score one run in two games. I noticed the joylessness thing earlier.

Bottom line: David is hard to replace in pretty much every way. His presence was huge, and not just production wise. That they are suffering an Ortiz Hangover (tied to actual numbers, team dynamics and impact on other guys in the line-up) is not surprising in the least.
What's weird is I was getting a 2013-esque feel in the first week of this season. They had three great comebacks from decent deficits in late innings, one of which they then blew. But still. They were showing some amazing fight early. It's such a long season, I'll keep being patient. But certainly is a lot to worry about if you look for it right now. I also wonder if it's still lingering effects from the plague everyone got. Lots and lots of time to go. Just need a few games where they score 8-10 runs and everyone will get going.
 

BaseballJones

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Maybe being totally knocked out by a vicious stomach flu has still has some lingering effects? Puking your guts out for a week can do a number on you for quite a while afterwards, especially from a conditioning standpoint. Factor in that it was during a pretty critical period right at the end of ST and into the first few weeks, and I could see it being tough to get into a groove physically and mentally. Still feels like things will click, and some poor team's pitching staff is going to pay.
We HAVE to believe that things will click. Pedroia has a long track record of being really good. Hanley has a long track record of having plenty of power. Betts is obviously a tremendous player with plenty of power. Bogaerts, who knows what he really is in terms of power. Moreland has proven to be a 20 homer guy. Bradley appears to have legitimate power. I don't think last year was a mirage for all these guys.

If it was, then of course the Sox are screwed. But then if it was, even having Papi wouldn't solve it.
 

phenweigh

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Ortiz was remarkably consistent on a month to month basis. He had hardly any full months of just being terrible, though it did happen once in a while. But that kind of consistency raises the low water level. We all know that these guys have talent but for whatever reasons a bunch of them are performing at the low end of their abilities. Likely they will have streaks to make up for it later.

That said, I'll duck the rotten tomatoes as I say that this team is getting a 2011 feel about it to me.
It feels like they'll be really good until they collapse in September?
 

smastroyin

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Yeah, I feel like the GM tried to put together super team, and they will stutter a bit then play really well for the summer and look really great and then a couple of nagging injuries and they'll be struggling a bit again. Whether that becomes a full on collapse is impossible to know, but I also kind of feel like the scuffling along might go on a little longer than it did in 2011. I wouldn't say they are going to have a 99% chance of winning the division and blow it or anything.

But more what I'm getting at is that they are going to play below their true talent for a while, and have to play really well to overcome it.
 

MikeM

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Todd Frazier? He's not the answer. Not by a long long shot.

If Bogaerts, Pedroia, and Ramirez don't pick up the pace and hit as they have, there is no quick, add-a-bat fix that will make any difference, even Ortiz.
I wasn't so much presenting Frazier as an "answer" as I was a potential adjustment, since DD doesn't strike me as the type that is ultimately going to take a sink or swim approach in regards to this roster's initial configuration.

I also generally agree that Betts looks mostly fine if you weren't buying in on him being the 30 HR guy he was last year. Again, I'm just not sold that a bounce back of Pedroia/Ramirez is enough here. At least in terms of quieting the emerging need of the big bat to better balance a fairly power starved lineup, and which still might leave us with a more grindy and different overall blueprint to success then we saw in 2016.
 

phenweigh

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Yeah, I feel like the GM tried to put together super team, and they will stutter a bit then play really well for the summer and look really great and then a couple of nagging injuries and they'll be struggling a bit again. Whether that becomes a full on collapse is impossible to know, but I also kind of feel like the scuffling along might go on a little longer than it did in 2011. I wouldn't say they are going to have a 99% chance of winning the division and blow it or anything.

But more what I'm getting at is that they are going to play below their true talent for a while, and have to play really well to overcome it.
Thanks for the thought process ... I understand where you're coming from.

While I think pinning the current poor offensive performance on Papi's absence is wrong, (because adding one good hitter to the offensive mix isn't enough if the other 8 hitters aren't getting it done, plus his replacement Moreland has been pretty good), I do agree that it can take some time for a new mix of people to work together well so that the whole exceeds the sum of the parts. (Though I think there is less of that in baseball which is based more on individual outcomes than basketball or football.)

Anyhow, if the Sox do get it together from May through August like the 2011 squad did, I'll rate the chances of collapse as very unlikely. Good teams truly collapsing is historically rare. But they do have to show themselves to be a good team first.
 

ehaz

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I just watched the replay of Francisco Lindor hitting a ~460ft bomb, meanwhile Xander is doing his April David Eckstein impression. While they were both hot prospects in the minors, who would've thought that it would be Lindor with a 60 point higher career SLG% at this point in their respective careers?
 

joyofsox

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Our 21 games so far:

0 runs - 3 games
1 run - 3 games
2 runs - 2 games
3 runs - 1 game
4 runs - 3 games
5 runs - 4 games
6 runs - 1 game
7 runs - 2 games
8 runs - 2 games

0-3 runs: 9 games (2-7 record)
4+ runs: 12 games (9-3 record)

0-4 runs: 12 games (5-7 record)
5+ runs: 9 games (6-3 record)