Something's not Wright

Reggie's Racquet

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I also came here to start a thread after I read that article.

The title of my thread was going to be "Did John Farrell permanently break Steven Wright?"

Sure looks like he might have (ERA of 8.03, 2.094 WHIP) and if so that's a big loss. He was a very valuable member of the rotation. An important innings eater that may never be the pitcher he was.

I know we have been through this before but pinch running someone that valuable to the rotation was foolish and inexcusable.
 

EdRalphRomero

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That's a really cool article. Nice work Ian. Taking as a given the difference in pitch movement, and it being linked to his poor results this year (either as cause or symptom), could any of our resident docs weigh in on possible hold-overs from his injury last year that might be correlated with this?
 

GammonsSpecialPerson

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The title of my thread was going to be "Did John Farrell permanently break Steven Wright?"

Sure looks like he might have (ERA of 8.03, 2.094 WHIP) and if so that's a big loss. He was a very valuable member of the rotation. An important innings eater that may never be the pitcher he was.
While injury is the most likely explanation, the variance inherent in the knuckleball may also be a large factor. 2016 Wright had a hot streak out of line with his prior achievements, got hurt, and since has been on a pretty bad streak. Streakiness has always been a part of the knuckleball experience.

Is Wright this bad, forever? That would be unfortunate. It is also unlikely. When the hot, dry weather arrives, he may well course correct - in which case, the big thing is the weather/conditions, not the injury or the generic "knuckleball floats, eh?" explanations.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I wasn't surprised that Wright didn't have a great outing on Saturday given the wet weather (although it's somewhat strange that he went three innings before giving up the two bombs).

But I just saw in this article that Wright is saying the same thing as IaYork: "“'t’s not as unpredictable this year as it was last year,' he said of his knuckler. 'It’s not really moving. I am trying to get the violence back into the pitch.'"

Hopefully, he'll get better as the weather warms up - but not too warm, as we know he has trouble throwing that thing in high humidity too.

Sigh.
 

lexrageorge

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While I realize it's fashionable here to throw Farrell under the bus, it's more likely that Wright is who he's always been: an average pitcher.

He had 2 mediocre starts right before he got hurt last year. His 0.400 BABIP this season is likely unsustainable. Let's give him a couple of more starts before we declare him finished.
 

Monbo Jumbo

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.... 2016 Wright had a hot streak out of line with his prior achievements, ...
False.

Wright's 2016 streak is quite similar to other periods of his development. A stretch in Pawtucket a few years ago included a 90 pitch complete game (iirc). Fangraphs noted his elite Z score numbers (small sample size) prior to 2016.
 

Jnai

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Just FYI, Baltimore pitch tracking is totally unreliable right now.
 

iayork

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Just FYI, Baltimore pitch tracking is totally unreliable right now.
Yeah, I worried about all the changes in pitch tracking this year as a potential confounder, but the changes in horizontal movement are only in his knuckleball cluster -- his "fastballs" and curve and his putative slow knuckleball all fall into the same cluster as last year, so they act as built-in controls.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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I also came here to start a thread after I read that article.

The title of my thread was going to be "Did John Farrell permanently break Steven Wright?"

Sure looks like he might have (ERA of 8.03, 2.094 WHIP) and if so that's a big loss. He was a very valuable member of the rotation. An important innings eater that may never be the pitcher he was.

I know we have been through this before but pinch running someone that valuable to the rotation was foolish and inexcusable.
Steven Wright in the 7 starts before he got hurt...

4.95 ERA, 4.57 xFIP, .267 AVG against, 1.33 WHIP, .331 BABIP

Versus the 15 starts prior to that...

2.10 ERA, 4.39 xFIP, .206 AVG against, 1.14 WHIP, .252 BABIP

Possibility 1: Knuckleballers have mystical powers. Perhaps one of them is the ability to see into the future and he knew the injury was coming, so he started sucking more than a month before it happened.

Possibility 2: His first half was a babip fueled run that wasn't indicative of who he is as a pitcher and he regressed. Then he got hurt.

You might want to pick option 1, but I'm gonna go with the option where he was never a front of the rotation starter in the first place.
 

Byrdbrain

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Those numbers also don't take in to account the increased amount of unearned runs scored against knuckle ball pitchers.
It is impossible to say how much of his struggles late last year were due to his base running adventures but I'm certain his issues this year are completely unrelated.
 

simplicio

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Steven Wright in the 7 starts before he got hurt...

4.95 ERA, 4.57 xFIP, .267 AVG against, 1.33 WHIP, .331 BABIP

Versus the 15 starts prior to that...

2.10 ERA, 4.39 xFIP, .206 AVG against, 1.14 WHIP, .252 BABIP

Possibility 1: Knuckleballers have mystical powers. Perhaps one of them is the ability to see into the future and he knew the injury was coming, so he started sucking more than a month before it happened.

Possibility 2: His first half was a babip fueled run that wasn't indicative of who he is as a pitcher and he regressed. Then he got hurt.

You might want to pick option 1, but I'm gonna go with the option where he was never a front of the rotation starter in the first place.
I dug into that pre-injury stretch last year and found it may have been a little more complicated than just the stat line. Though I agree with your assessment that he's not a front of rotation guy, especially given his dependence on weather and temperature, beyond whatever is currently going on with him. I'll repost here:

Well, let's look at those 8 starts, or maybe 9 because I like bookends:
6/20: 9 IP, 1 unearned run (Shaw error and botched pickoff throw) on 5 H, 3BB, 6 SO. Kimbrel with the loss in the 10th.
6/25: 5 unearned runs in the fifth on errors by Xander and Hanley, and it's a Ross WP that lets in the last. Still, 3 earned in the fourth before that, and he admits he doesn't have the knuckle. Beaten by summer in Arlington, again.
7/1: after 5 scoreless, loses control as the sixth gets rainy. Double, HBP, walk, GS on a full count fastball where Farrell says he should have thrown the knuckle.
7/6: 5 good innings (1 unearned on a Pedey error) again, then 5ER across the 6th and 7th as he and Hanigan, with a 10 run lead, start trying to challenge with fastballs to go deeper and spare the pen in a blowout.
7/15: great through 5 scoreless, sitting down the first 14 in a row, loses control a bit in the sixth with a HPB and walk coming around for 2 of 3 ER, but finishes the inning.
7/21: 8 IP, 2 runs (1 earned) on 4 hits, 9 SO, 1BB. Maybe it doesn't count cause Twins?
7/26: a bad game. 9 runs (8 earned) on 8 hits, 3 BB, a HR to Miggy, wild pitches moving base runners.
7/31: not good either, but luckier. Somehow scatters 10 hits and 3 BB across 5 IP while only giving up 3, all in the 5th. Helps his own case by getting two putouts at home in the first alone.
8/5: 9 IP, 3 hits, 9 SO, 1 BB, complete game shutout.

That's a really interesting stretch with a bad couple games at the end of July, and it demonstrated an easy lesson that I think Farrell recognized: If Wright needs to rely on his fastball, you're in trouble. His knuckleball is clearly susceptible to rain and sweat, but you also need to be ready with a quick hook in the fifth or sixth if it falters with fatigue, and in those cases it's generally better to have him walk a couple guys while you get a reliever ready. All the trouble in those middle innings makes me think maybe he should be viewed primarily as a twice through the order guy, with leeway to go longer if he's having a dominant night.

But his flaws seem to be pretty manageable if you know what to look for, really. I think in my mind he's the fifth starter if he proves his shoulder has recovered next spring.
 

luckysox

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So this means the Henry Owens experience is coming back? He's pitching "well" in Pawtucket so far. Still too many walks. Maybe he'll stick this time, if it's him they call up.
 

soxhop411

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Wright may be out a while. He is seeing a specialist

Evan Drellich @EvanDrellich
Steven Wright went down to NY to see a knee specialist. Farrell said too soon to know about the potential for surgery.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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So...how long until this knee injury is pinned on Farrell for using him as a pinch runner last year? Or has it already happened and I missed it?
 

Lose Remerswaal

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With a Wright out for quite some time it would seem, and Price not ready to return, I think it makes sense to pick Kendrick. Leave Johnson/Owens in AAA for more seasoning and consistency and take your chance on losing Kendrick in a month (or longer) when Price returns.
 

TheoShmeo

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With a Wright out for quite some time it would seem, and Price not ready to return, I think it makes sense to pick Kendrick. Leave Johnson/Owens in AAA for more seasoning and consistency and take your chance on losing Kendrick in a month (or longer) when Price returns.
I think the more likely path will be a to give Kendrick two or three starts and then re-evaluate whether to go with Velazquez, Owens or Johnson. No reason to commit to Kendrick (or anyone else in the minors) for more than a few starts.
 

phenweigh

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Kendrick doesn't have options, so they can't send him back without exposing him to waivers. Makes me think they may have a little more patience with Kyle. Hopefully he succeeds and the desire to try Owens, Johnson, or Velazquez doesn't surface.
 

paulb0t

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Done for the year per a TeamStream alert. Knee surgery.

Edit: one too many pers. Also, missed the twitter post upthread.
 
Last edited:

InsideTheParker

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So...how long until this knee injury is pinned on Farrell for using him as a pinch runner last year? Or has it already happened and I missed it?
Well, I think it is at least interesting if this pain dates back to last year rather than coming on recently. Knee problems can take a while to fully develop.
 

Soxfan in Fla

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This team is getting injured right and left. If Price can't come back we will need to find a 5th starter.
 

pantsparty

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Well, I think it is at least interesting if this pain dates back to last year rather than coming on recently. Knee problems can take a while to fully develop.
I don't remember him mentioning knee pain last year. The earliest I remember was during spring training, and Wright said at the time that the issue didn't come from any particular incident.
 

mauidano

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Likely a career ending injury at least with the Sox. Wright and a few moments lat year of absolute brilliance but you know how that pitch can be. Thanks for the memories and speedy recovery.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Likely a career ending injury at least with the Sox. Wright and a few moments lat year of absolute brilliance but you know how that pitch can be. Thanks for the memories and speedy recovery.
Possibly with the Sox, but I'm not sure micro fracture is all that career ending for a knuckle baller (though IANAD and can easily be corrected), especially on his landing leg. Derek Holland seems to be doing fine now and that was his plant leg that he was putting much more strain on.
 

SoxInTheMist

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Thank you Steven. And thank you Timmeh of course. But dear god, please let this be the end of knuckleballers on the pitching staff for a while. They're almost as bad as having to watch Dice-K pitch. Even when they're on and unhittable you never feel safe 'cause they can lose it on the next pitch and give up 4 straight bombs.
 

soxhop411

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Likely a career ending injury at least with the Sox. Wright and a few moments lat year of absolute brilliance but you know how that pitch can be. Thanks for the memories and speedy recovery.
Explain.... He is arb eligible starting in 2018..... We are not cutting bait with a pitcher with that much control left


Jen McCaffrey‏ @jcmccaffrey 1h1 hour ago
Wright first felt the knee injury in ST playing catch. Twisted his knee awkwardly, heard a pop but it didn't hurt, didn't think much of it
 

Byrdbrain

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He doesn't have any options left, has had health issues and has been inconsistent at best.
I would assume he'll be non-tendered and then someone, maybe the Sox, will give him a minor league deal.
 

soxhop411

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He doesn't have any options left, has had health issues and has been inconsistent at best.
I would assume he'll be non-tendered and then someone, maybe the Sox, will give him a minor league deal.
I would throw this year out given he has been playing with an injured knee since spring training and thats probably why he was not pitching well
 

Byrdbrain

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Maybe, but with no options left that means they have to keep him on the 25 man and I'd be surprised if they are comfortable doing that based on the other two things I mentioned.
 

Bigpupp

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He doesn't have any options left, has had health issues and has been inconsistent at best.
I would assume he'll be non-tendered and then someone, maybe the Sox, will give him a minor league deal.
No way would they non-tender him. He won't make nearly enough money to worry about, and worst case scenario is they out-right him off the 40 man and he pitches in AAA.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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No way would they non-tender him. He won't make nearly enough money to worry about, and worst case scenario is they out-right him off the 40 man and he pitches in AAA.
Yeah, it wouldn't shock me but I doubt he's non-tendered; but I also doubt at that low salary you cite he would make it through waivers to go to the minors or to be outrighted off the 40 man. It's semantics, but I'm guessing either way he's thrown his last pitch as a Red Sox.
 

nothumb

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Yeah, it wouldn't shock me but I doubt he's non-tendered; but I also doubt at that low salary you cite he would make it through waivers to go to the minors or to be outrighted off the 40 man. It's semantics, but I'm guessing either way he's thrown his last pitch as a Red Sox.
Isn't it possible that he's healthy enough by next spring to simply compete for a roster spot, and that he gets one? He can go on the 60 day until then, so I'm not really seeing why this can't just get hashed out in March. I could certainly see him making the team as a long man or 5th starter next year, it's not like we have a bunch of other in-house guys banging down the door.

Seems totally possible that he's a roster casualty next year for the reasons mentioned, but my guess is we see him in some role next year, at least for a little while.
 

lexrageorge

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Yeah, it wouldn't shock me but I doubt he's non-tendered; but I also doubt at that low salary you cite he would make it through waivers to go to the minors or to be outrighted off the 40 man. It's semantics, but I'm guessing either way he's thrown his last pitch as a Red Sox.
I'm not sure why he would need to go through waivers. If anything, he'll be in extended spring training to start the season a-la David Price. No need to put him on waivers or outright him to make that happen.