2017 Butler Watch: Love Me Tender

NickEsasky

Please Hammer, Don't Hurt 'Em
Silver Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 24, 2001
9,190
Saints GM confirms interest in Butler:
Nick Underhill‏Verified account @nick_underhill
Mickey Loomis on Malcolm Butler: “We’re kicking the tires, I guess is the best way to describe that. We’ll see how that process works.”
Not sure what that means other than they are interested but we knew that already.
Translation: We want him but not for the 11th overall pick plus a big new contract.
 

BigJimEd

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
4,432
Saints GM confirms interest in Butler:
Nick Underhill‏Verified account @nick_underhill
Mickey Loomis on Malcolm Butler: “We’re kicking the tires, I guess is the best way to describe that. We’ll see how that process works.”
Not sure what that means other than they are interested but we knew that already.
Yeah not much there other than they haven't ruled him out.

We'll see if there is any action after the 21st, assuming Butler signs the tender then. I think if the Pats trade him it will either be shortly after he signs the tender or during the draft.
 
Last edited:

BigJimEd

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
4,432
You are correct. The deadline is the 21st not sure why I was thinking the 15th. Thanks
 

PaulinMyrBch

Don't touch his dog food
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 10, 2003
8,316
MYRTLE BEACH!!!!
With the Patriots cap room, its unlikely anyone puts together an offer sheet that we couldn't match. Obviously the numbers could get to a level where we wouldn't match, and then you'd be talking about a team signing Butler to true FA numbers and giving up a 1st to do so. So I think that is unlikely. Sign and trade is probably what is going to happen if it does.
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
With the Patriots cap room, its unlikely anyone puts together an offer sheet that we couldn't match. Obviously the numbers could get to a level where we wouldn't match, and then you'd be talking about a team signing Butler to true FA numbers and giving up a 1st to do so. So I think that is unlikely. Sign and trade is probably what is going to happen if it does.
Yep.

http://www.patspulpit.com/2017/3/8/14760310/2017-nfl-draft-has-the-most-cornerback-depth-mike-mayock-has-ever-seen-tabor-king-marlon-Sidney

And Mayock is not alone in this assessment.
 

dcdrew10

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
1,397
Washington, DC via Worcester

Howe with the exact Payton quote that Reiss is referencing: "We had a chance to visit with him (Butler). Currently, it's my understanding he hasn't signed his tender, so it was just that. We can sign him to an offer sheet, but I don't think were going to do that and give up the 11th pick. In fact, I know were doing going to do that. It is what it is right now"

That seems pretty clear that both NE and NO are waiting for Butler to sign his tender before anything else can happen and we ain't getting the 11th pick.
 

LogansDad

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
29,053
Alamogordo
Yeah, that kind of reads to me like Payton is almost telling Butler, "Sign your tender, and we will see if we can work something out with the Patriots." I think that's probably the right play by them, but I don't know how likely it is that Butler gets traded if he signs his tender, either.
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
SoSH Member
Sep 27, 2016
21,754
Pittsburgh, PA
what I'm hoping is that we're working out an extension for him along the same rough terms that the Saints offered him were they to acquire him (for less than the 11th pick).
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
90,016
Oregon
"It is what it is right now."

Belichick and his coaching friends must have a drinking game tied to how many times they can get that quoted
 

PaulinMyrBch

Don't touch his dog food
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 10, 2003
8,316
MYRTLE BEACH!!!!
Here's the numbers based on interview/meetings so far.

26 Defensive players interviewed. 12 DB's (6 SS, 3 FS, 3 CB) 11 D Lineman (7 Edge, 4 DT), 3 LB
22 Offensive players interviewed. 3 OT, 1 QB, 3 RB, 4 TE, 11 WR (most of which are 6'1" or taller).

Granted our interest in players and positions may have changed post free agency, but that is the total so far.
 
Last edited:

Lose Remerswaal

Experiencing Furry Panic
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
I know the Saints say they won't sign Butler to an offer sheet, but I was wondering that there must be a threshold of an offer sheet they could make that the Patriots would match it vs. wouldn't match it. For instance, if he agreed to a 5 years/$30 million (for sake of argument assume all money is guaranteed), the Pats might match it, figuring that although the #12 pick would be a nice asset, having MB signed for 5 years at $6 million/year is too good a deal to pass up. However, 7 years/$56 million might be a bit too much to commit, and 7 years/$77 million would definitely be too much.

Where do you think that sweet spot of "you can have him, we'll take the draft pick" might lie?
 

TheoShmeo

Skrub's sympathy case
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
12,890
Boston, NY
We've seen Sean Payton state that the Saints will not sign Butler to an offer sheet because it would cost the 11th pick.

I guess that means that to Payton, Butler isn't worth the economic cost of his contract plus losing the 11th pick. (Unless he's posturing, which I do not think is the case).

That's an understandable calculus as he now has the chance to draft a potential star and pay him a lot less than he would have to pay Malcolm.

And I know that some Pats fans would make the same judgment regarding the Patriots' decision tree. They would rather see the Pats have the chance to pick at 11 than keep Butler for a year at $3.9 mm and risk losing him thereafter. Presumably some would also prefer the 1th pick to signing Butler up to a long term deal at big dollars.

I would opt to keep Butler and either play out the string at $3.9 mm or sign him up longer term, if possible. My rationale is that I believe in the player, think that with Gilmore he would give the Pats a solid corner duo in a year when they seem loaded enough to win again and that they can either lock up a really good player for a while or see what tomorrow brings.

But part of my opinion is based on my view that draft picks are very chancy. For example, the Pats traded for two former first round picks this past season -- Cooper and Mingo -- who are graphic reminders that teams often miss on picks near the top of the first round.

Then, as an exercise, I checked to see who was picked at 11 in the last five years.

Here they are:

2016 - Eli Apple
2015 - Trae Wayner
2014 - Taylor Lewan
2013 - DJ Fluker
2012 - Dontari Poe

Which of those guys would you rather have than Malcolm Butler? Is there more than one? Are there any?

Now I know that's a small sample. I did not analyze guys picked at 10 or 12. The exercise wasn't meant to be complete in any way.

But I do think it underscores that drafting is a very inexact science and at least for me, there is a lot of value in the player you know, especially relative to the chance to miss. And especially if the player in hand is a number one caliber corner, a rare commodity indeed.

So, bottom line, thank you Sean Payton and Mickey Loomis. Keep Saying No.
 
Last edited:

ALiveH

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
1,104
What would a "fair" contract extension for Butler look like? I'm thinking 3 years / $39M with $16M of that guaranteed. Including next year's $4M, that would be $43M over the next 4 years with $20M guaranteed.
 

Hoodie Sleeves

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 24, 2015
1,204
What would a "fair" contract extension for Butler look like? I'm thinking 3 years / $39M with $16M of that guaranteed. Including next year's $4M, that would be $43M over the next 4 years with $20M guaranteed.
Something along those lines is probably right - maybe 5-56 (basically another year at $13M) - essentially something similar to the Gilmore contract (minus $10M or so and some bonus because of the RFA year).

I think the sticking point has always been the first year and him getting paid "like a UFA" instead of an RFA.
 

Saints Rest

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
I think it's not beyond the realm of possibility that Payton's statement about not signing MB to an offer sheet is signaling (in negotiating sense) to both the Pats and to Butler.

It's a clear signal to the Pats that their hope of getting #11 isn't happening, so if they want to negotiate on a trade, it's got to be for less than that.

But's it's also potentially a signal to Butler that the Saints don't put a high enough value on him to sign him outright.

Both signals are important in this case, because if a sign-and-trade is going to happen, it will require the interplay of all three parties: Saints, Pats, MB. The Saints basically have to pay two ways to get what they want, so it's vital to them that they try to move one or both of the other parties down in their individual demands. Perhaps the Saints see MB as worth 1/11 if the contract is very small. Perhaps they see him as worth Gilmore level money if the trade cost is very low. But since neither of those extreme options is likely to satisfy one of the other parties, the Saints' best hope is to get both parties to reduce their individual demands, maybe to something like multiple second day picks and 4/$40M. And maybe either or both of the Pats and/or MB turn that down, in which case they may be left with (in the Pats' case) a disgruntled player or (in MB's case) the tender or a holdout which brings with it a huge reduction in salary for 2017.
 

DegenerateSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 11, 2006
2,064
Flagstaff, AZ
I apologize if anyone's already touched on this, but I think there's simpler reason that's also a part of why Pats aren't going to compromise. I think with next year's schedule, facing some better QBs, they'd really like to have a potentially scary-good 1-2 of Gillmore-Butler. Their run defense figures to be pretty stout, so really why not really put the screws to the opposing WRs? I feel for Malcolm, but it's 3.9 for him this year.
 

Mystic Merlin

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 21, 2007
46,767
Hartford, CT
I don't see why the extra 'signal' matters to the Pats. A trade ain't happening unless Butler signs his tender, and there's no chance of the Saints giving up anything less than #11 if they submit an offer sheet tp Butler. If the Saints were willing to give up #11, they would've submitted an offer sheet weeks ago.

If the Saints thought another 'signal' to the Pats was necessary or productive then I think they're wasting their energy.
 

mwonow

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 4, 2005
7,095
Something along those lines is probably right - maybe 5-56 (basically another year at $13M) - essentially something similar to the Gilmore contract (minus $10M or so and some bonus because of the RFA year).

I think the sticking point has always been the first year and him getting paid "like a UFA" instead of an RFA.
I understand that this is the agent's position, but it's a dumb one. Why doesn't he just demand to be paid like a quarterback? A supermodel? The CEO of a Fortune 500 company? He isn't in any of these positions, including "UFA"
 

Saints Rest

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
I don't see why the extra 'signal' matters to the Pats. A trade ain't happening unless Butler signs his tender, and there's no chance of the Saints giving up anything less than #11 if they submit an offer sheet tp Butler. If the Saints were willing to give up #11, they would've submitted an offer sheet weeks ago.

If the Saints thought another 'signal' to the Pats was necessary or productive then I think they're wasting their energy.
Here's why I think Payton is signaling.

The Pats may think that the Saints will eventually give in and sign an offer sheet. Thus the Pats would be foolish to consider any trade talks. If the Saints make it clear, by having Payton make that public statement, it takes #11 off the table as an option for the Pats. Once 11 is no longer an option, the Pats can consider if an unhappy Butler for potentially as little as 6 games is worth more than some other draft pick offer.

The thing about the tender is that it renders the idea of a sign and trade into a 3-way negotiation, presumably with a key contingency ("This contract offer is only good upon the Pats and Saints agreeing to a trade"). Since the Pats have said in the press that they won't talk trade until Butler signs his tender, it makes this 3-way convo very tricky.

The Pats have an enormous amount of leverage. Their only downside is being stuck with a disgruntled Butler for as little as 6 weeks.
 

PaulinMyrBch

Don't touch his dog food
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 10, 2003
8,316
MYRTLE BEACH!!!!
I can't see the Saints making a top free agent dollar offer to get him, and then having to give up a draft pick on top of that. If that was their plan, they could have signed a free agent corner and drafted one and had two players for essentially the same. The only way this works for the Saints is if they get the first year of a 4 or 5 year deal at the reduced tender amount, and the rest of the contract pays him slightly less than he might make if he signs now instead of a UFA next year. Here's what I'm saying.

Lets assume he's similar to Gilmore, and FA $$ is $13m/yr
A 4 year deal for Butler via sign and trade might look like 4.9/11/12/13 ~ 4@41m. (where a true FA deal might be 4@52m)
The Saints give up the draft pick because 1) he's a proven commodity, and 2) they get him for essentially an $11m discount.
Butler does it because and takes less than market in yrs 2-4 b/c he has no leverage, and he could get hurt or regress this year and never see a true top market FA $$'s.

So if it goes down, I think its a sign and trade and the deal would look something like that 4@41m. Compensation to the Pats is anyone's guess.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
19,615
Portsmouth, NH
It's not that they *won't* talk trade, they *can't*. It's against the rules. Not to say that means the teams are abiding strictly by it, but until he signs his tender or an offer sheet, the teams can't discuss him.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,055
Hingham, MA
I can't see the Saints making a top free agent dollar offer to get him, and then having to give up a draft pick on top of that. If that was their plan, they could have signed a free agent corner and drafted one and had two players for essentially the same. The only way this works for the Saints is if they get the first year of a 4 or 5 year deal at the reduced tender amount, and the rest of the contract pays him slightly less than he might make if he signs now instead of a UFA next year. Here's what I'm saying.

Lets assume he's similar to Gilmore, and FA $$ is $13m/yr
A 4 year deal for Butler via sign and trade might look like 4.9/11/12/13 ~ 4@41m. (where a true FA deal might be 4@52m)
The Saints give up the draft pick because 1) he's a proven commodity, and 2) they get him for essentially an $11m discount.
Butler does it because and takes less than market in yrs 2-4 b/c he has no leverage, and he could get hurt or regress this year and never see a true top market FA $$'s.

So if it goes down, I think its a sign and trade and the deal would look something like that 4@41m. Compensation to the Pats is anyone's guess.
I still don't see why the Pats wouldn't sign him to this contract though
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,055
Hingham, MA
The Pats have an enormous amount of leverage. Their only downside is being stuck with a disgruntled Butler for as little as 6 weeks.
Have we confirmed whether Butler gets the full $3.91M if he only plays 6 games? I would think it would only count if he has actually reported to the team. If he skips 10/16 games, he would be giving up nearly $2.5M, if that is the case.
 

PaulinMyrBch

Don't touch his dog food
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 10, 2003
8,316
MYRTLE BEACH!!!!
I still don't see why the Pats wouldn't sign him to this contract though
I don't either, but it wouldn't be the first time I didn't understand a BB move. Just appears that something is going to happen under the smoke/fire theory. I'd love to have Butler as a #2.
 

Saints Rest

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Have we confirmed whether Butler gets the full $3.91M if he only plays 6 games? I would think it would only count if he has actually reported to the team. If he skips 10/16 games, he would be giving up nearly $2.5M, if that is the case.
I'm pretty sure that whatever contract he signs, be it the full $3.9 or the reduced $660k, would be subject to lost game checks (at 1/16 of the contract per game) should he hold out.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,055
Hingham, MA
I'm pretty sure that whatever contract he signs, be it the full $3.9 or the reduced $660k, would be subject to lost game checks (at 1/16 of the contract per game) should he hold out.
Right, so the chances of him holding out for 10 games and giving up nearly $2.5M - when he hasn't made $2.5M yet in his career - seems pretty slim.
 

Hoodie Sleeves

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 24, 2015
1,204
Right, so the chances of him holding out for 10 games and giving up nearly $2.5M - when he hasn't made $2.5M yet in his career - seems pretty slim.
It's also likely that only playing 6 games would depress any free agent offers he gets - so it would likely be significantly more expensive than that.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,096
Just a recap of some of the provisions in the CBA:

If a Restricted Free Agent described in Subsection 2(b)(i) above has not signed a Player Contract by the Tuesday following the tenth week of the regular season, at 4:00pm New York time, the player shall not play football in the NFL for the remainder of that League Year, absent a showing to the Impartial Arbitrator of extreme Club or extreme personal hardship.
If a Restricted Free Agent does not play in the NFL in a League Year, his Prior Team shall have the right to tender such player any Qualifying Offer consistent with Section 2(b) prior to the next League Year’s Restricted Free Agent Signing Period. In the event such a Qualifying Offer is tendered, the Prior Team shall have the applicable rights regarding such player according to such Tender, and such player shall have the same rights regarding negotiations with other Clubs as he had the previous League Year
So if no team signs Butler to an offer sheet, his choices are as follows:

a.) Sign the $3.9M tender and play for NWE, with the understanding that he will likely earn at least the franchise tag in 2018.

b.) Sign the tender and attempt to negotiate an extension with NWE.

c.) Sign the tender and request a trade.

d.) Sign the tender, hold out until Week 10, and sacrifice $2.5M plus a significant chunk of 2018 salary, as his market value would likely plummet.

e.) Wait until 6/15 and sign the $660K offer that NWE would put on the table at that time. Repeat the above options, replacing $3.9M w/ $660K.

f.) Sign nothing and repeat the entire process over again in 2018.

Once the draft rolls around, Butler's only real choice is to sign the tender. Such is life as an RFA with 1st round tender.
 
Last edited:

bakahump

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 8, 2001
7,518
Maine
While I agree with Hoodie Sleeves that a holdout could depress FA offers he might field in 2018 you could look at it like this:
If Butler holds out and plays 6 games it reduces his chance of being hurt. But he loses 2.5 Million you say. True, but he was only slated to make 660k this year anyway before the RFA designation.
So he makes the same 660k, plays basically 1/3 the games (if you factor in likely playoff games), reduces his injury risk by 2/3 and still goes into free agency as a pretty big name with a pretty sizeable sample size.
Personally I doubt a holdout would lower his FA offers very much. They might actually look at it as a "Tread on the tires" situation and consider it a good thing. Or at the very least neither good nor bad. I am not saying that a team will offer MORE money after a hold out. And they would be silly not to try to use that point to attain leverage, Its just at the end of day I doubt it affects his FA contract very much.

Why he just doesnt take the 3.91 million and get the Insurance is beyond me, but if he has that outlook he MIGHT look at a holdout like I describe above.
 

Hoodie Sleeves

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 24, 2015
1,204
Holding out also means hes not practicing for those 10 weeks, or training camp, or preseason. Those 6 games most likely aren't going to be particularly pretty.


Has anyone actually held out until week 10? I know a bunch have threatened, but usually the team promises not to franchise and they show up.
 

bakahump

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 8, 2001
7,518
Maine
Knowing that the Pats face some good pass offenses next year, I wondered if the last 6 games might be "easier" for the #2CB then the first 10 games.

Miami-Probably pretty tough assignment
New Orleans- Probably pretty tough assignment
Jets- Probably not bad
Raiders- Probably pretty tough assignment
Steelers- Probably not bad (I am assuming Gilmore would take Brown and Butler would get someone else)
Bucs- Probably not too bad.

So yea, its not like he could miss the murderers row of good offenses and come in for the last 6 games for a cakewalk.
 

Sportsbstn

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 8, 2004
8,794
Holding out also means hes not practicing for those 10 weeks, or training camp, or preseason. Those 6 games most likely aren't going up.
That's if he even gets to play much. You never know what happens when you sit out that long. With that said, there is virtually no chance Malcolm sits any part of the season out.
 

Red Leader

New Member
Aug 2, 2009
17
I agree that the most likely outcome of all of this is Butler playing under the RFA tender, so hopefully this question is academic. If a player does holdout for the full 10 games, comes back and plays the last 6 in order to accrue their full year of service time, can they then sit out any potential playoff games?
 

snowmanny

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
15,667
Yes it's not six games, we hope it's 9. I'd take Malcom Butler @ 1.5M for six games plus the playoffs.

If he sits out playoff games he will be the most hated man in America. Edit:He would destroy his value.
 

DeadlySplitter

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 20, 2015
33,249
Knowing that the Pats face some good pass offenses next year, I wondered if the last 6 games might be "easier" for the #2CB then the first 10 games.
...

So yea, its not like he could miss the murderers row of good offenses and come in for the last 6 games for a cakewalk.
where do we know the Pats schedule...?
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
19,615
Portsmouth, NH
Then let him be pissed. We have zero legit reason to think he will be a distraction as he's basically been a perfect soldier so far. We can speculate, but there's no actual reason to think he would be an issue, as so far, he's been a model Patriot. If he actually is upset, let him play with a little fire in his belly, I don't foresee him being a malcontent. If he is, so be it. They offered him a long term deal and security, he chose this route.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,055
Hingham, MA
Then let him be pissed. We have zero legit reason to think he will be a distraction as he's basically been a perfect soldier so far. We can speculate, but there's no actual reason to think he would be an issue, as so far, he's been a model Patriot. If he actually is upset, let him play with a little fire in his belly, I don't foresee him being a malcontent. If he is, so be it. They offered him a long term deal and security, he chose this route.
I agree with this, and he has every incentive to be a good soldier again and play to the best of his ability. If he plays 2017 on the tender and plays great, he will get a ton of $$ in free agency next year. If he lets anything affect his play, he risks that.

Edit: I will say, I bet the market speaks and he doesn't get Gilmore money next year. He is 6 months older than Gilmore, which doesn't really matter, but given that he will be a UFA a year later, and probably isn't widely viewed to be as good as Gilmore, I am guessing he ends up disappointed come March 2018. Not Welker level disappointed, but disappointed.