Celtics path forward (hypothetical question included)

BigSoxFan

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Mostly we're scared of BOS (and maybe that comes off snarkly but my point is, most people here don't believe the Celtics are as competitive in a playoff series as they are in the regular season).
I think so. This franchise really needs a nice playoff series win and then maybe we'll all get a little more bullish.

One of my buddies posed the following hypothetical to me:

1) First round loss and #1 pick

Or

2) ECF and #4 pick

If you had to choose one of these hypotheticals, what would you pick?
 

smastroyin

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Probably 2. I think getting to the ECF would be not a fluke and that Ainge would probably trade #4 to improve the team now.

I guess there are roads where I'd take option 1, like some crazy scenario where the Celtics get the Pacers in the first round and then the Hawks win their first round but lose Millsap for the season and the Celtics get them in the second round. I like Fultz a lot but he doesn't look like a perennial all-NBA franchise cornerstone can't miss.

The argument could of course be made that option 2 stinks because the current core is Fools Gold and won't ever get over the hump so you want Danny to know to start taking it apart as soon as possible.

I do think we tend to overreact to single games way more than NBA teams or players or coaches do. (myself very much included)
 

NoXInNixon

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I think so. This franchise really needs a nice playoff series win and then maybe we'll all get a little more bullish.

One of my buddies posed the following hypothetical to me:

1) First round loss and #1 pick

Or

2) ECF and #4 pick

If you had to choose one of these hypotheticals, what would you pick?
#1 easy. A first round playoff exit puts to rest all thoughts that this team is one trade away from contending, and forces Danny into committing to a Brown-Fultz-2018 Nets Pick Big Three.
 

BigSoxFan

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#1 easy. A first round playoff exit puts to rest all thoughts that this team is one trade away from contending, and forces Danny into committing to a Brown-Fultz-2018 Nets Pick Big Three.
What if the run associated with #2 helps to land a max FA like Griffin or Hayward?
 

sezwho

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What if the run associated with #2 helps to land a max FA like Griffin or Hayward?
Interesting, that would actually change things for me. Haywood not so much perhaps in spite of his awesomeness, as I really like Crowder and see him as part of the solution more than part of the problem. Griffin on the other hand solves an actual C's problem and keeps the spacing if not actually improving it. We should be past the asset acquisition phase and into the building a real roster phase now, which puts a new constraint on our excellent (IMHO) GM. This could be his trickiest offseason yet.
 

NoXInNixon

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What if the run associated with #2 helps to land a max FA like Griffin or Hayward?
All the B-plusses in the world aren't going to win the Celtics a championship. Unless Westbrook is on the table, and he's probably not, there is no realistic scenario where the Celtics win banner #18 in the next 3-4 years. The next window is going to be when the Brooklyn picks hit their prime.
 

sezwho

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All the B-plusses in the world aren't going to win the Celtics a championship. Unless Westbrook is on the table, and he's probably not, there is no realistic scenario where the Celtics win banner #18 in the next 3-4 years. The next window is going to be when the Brooklyn picks hit their prime.
Wow, I really disagree. FWIW, I don't think Westbrook is the answer as I think he would limit the overall roster effectiveness of the rest of our team. However, a B+ at center would make a huge difference right now, let alone once Brown gets another year or so of seasoning!


...sorry Dopes, looks like I posted here just as you created the new thread...
 

smastroyin

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I split this because with all due respect, I don't want the CHAMPIONSHIPS OR BUST talk ruining talk about this year's actual playoffs and the run up to them.
 

DannyDarwinism

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#1 easy. A first round playoff exit puts to rest all thoughts that this team is one trade away from contending, and forces Danny into committing to a Brown-Fultz-2018 Nets Pick Big Three.
I don't think it does that because Fultz would also be a very valuable chip to land an established star. There was a Ringer piece by Kevin O'Connor a couple of days ago showing that if history is a precedent, Anthony Davis may become available in the near future, and some reports today that Jimmy Butler will be shipped out of Chicago this off-season.

Even barring the scenario where landing Fultz leads to a trade for a superstar, I'd prefer option #1. My opinion is surely colored by having just listened to a podcast with scouts covering the 2018 draft but going forward with one of Doncic/Ayton/Porter or Wendell Carter added to a base of Fultz, Brown, Smart and Zizic would be a team I'd love to watch develop.
 

nighthob

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As for the hypothetical, I probably go with #1 as that opens so many more options for Boston, even with the first round loss. What Boston needs, desperately, is a star that can shoot. So I'd put Butler third on my shopping list after Hayward and Paul George. And I see that as a possibility if Boston were to land the first pick.
 

Cesar Crespo

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What if the run associated with #2 helps to land a max FA like Griffin or Hayward?
Signing Hayward also makes it far more likely one of Crowder or Brown is traded and both could bring back a useful player. I could see Crowder coming off the bench in a 25-30 minute role if Hayward was here but that leaves next to no time for Jaylen Brown. Signing Hayward means KO is not coming back. It also means Josh Jackson probably isn't coming to Boston and that the draft pick is traded away as well because Boston doesn't need guards unless they trade one of IT4/AB/Smart and even then it's not much of a need. The front court would still be the main problem but now you'd have far more pieces to trade away to acquire that rim protector.

I would take option 1 as presented, but if option 2 meant getting Hayward then option 2 is pretty much a no brainer. If Utah offered us Hayward and the 4th overall pick for the 1st overall pick, we make that deal yesterday. Adding a star and a potential star/rotational player is the easy choice. I like Fultz but that deal is too much to pass up.
 

nighthob

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Hayward can play the 2-4 spots, if they sign him the guy they're going to be dealing is the smurfy Bradley. He's been a good soldier and all, but when you're starting a PG that's 5'8" in his Doc Martens you need a SG taller than 6'2". There are a lot of teams that could use his defense at the 1 spot because they run the offense through other spots on the floor (e.g. Houston, Milwaukee, potentially Philadelphia, etc.). But his future isn't here if Boston lands a wing of position-appropriate size.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Fair point on Hayward being able to play the 2 but saying he can play the 4 is a bit of a reach. He's played very little time at the 4 and when he did, he did not fair well. He's played more PG this year than PF. I figured Hayward was more comfortable/better at the SF position but he's pretty good as a SG too so your main point stands that it could very well be Avery Bradley and not Jae Crowder.
 

HomeRunBaker

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#1 easy. A first round playoff exit puts to rest all thoughts that this team is one trade away from contending, and forces Danny into committing to a Brown-Fultz-2018 Nets Pick Big Three.
Bingo. Not even close imo.

Ainge has us in position to be a Top 5-10 team for the next 12-15 years with 3 consecutive high lottery picks who will be on team-friendly rookie deals for the first 4 years while contributing. You don't get much greater value in the short term while having the upside potential to all be impact players.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Citing players from 1950's to the 1980's that left their terrible teams is not relevant at all in today's economic reality. Davis has way too much money riding on him staying in New Orleans
Yeah, we have to go all the way back to eight months ago to find a star player who left a ton of money on the table to go to a team he thought was in a better situation to win. And this Pelicans team ain't gonna make it to game 7 of the Western Conference finals anytime soon.

But since O'Connor was talking about a trade under AD's current contract and Bird rights, I have an even harder time seeing your point.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The Pelicans team is far better now than it was a month ago and is one or two rotational players away from being a perennial 50+ win team year in and year out. Davis isn't going anywhere unless Cousins doesn't resign or is the huge cancer he's rumored to be. The Pelicans are like an Avery Bradley away from being a legit title threat.
 

DannyDarwinism

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I should clarify that I don't think the small chance of AD, specifically, becoming available should move the needle much. Just that Fultz is a better chip than the #4 pick, should any star player become available, and significantly more exciting than Jackson/Tatum/Ball (my current order of preferences) as a prospect. Bowing out in the ECF wouldn't be worth giving that up to me.
 

the moops

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Yeah, we have to go all the way back to eight months ago to find a star player who left a ton of money on the table to go to a team he thought was in a better situation to win. And this Pelicans team ain't gonna make it to game 7 of the Western Conference finals anytime soon.

But since O'Connor was talking about a trade under AD's current contract and Bird rights, I have an even harder time seeing your point.
I confuse cap stuff and am not smart. My apologioes.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Even barring the scenario where landing Fultz leads to a trade for a superstar, I'd prefer option #1. My opinion is surely colored by having just listened to a podcast with scouts covering the 2018 draft but going forward with one of Doncic/Ayton/Porter or Wendell Carter added to a base of Fultz, Brown, Smart and Zizic would be a team I'd love to watch develop.
I know people poo poo 2018 right now because of the prospect hype machine but I am bullish on 2018 having at least one true stud in the draft. 2018 looks way better than 2017 to me because the top prospects have the requisite size and athletic ability.

Maybe they all flame out but I reallyhope DA holds on to 2018.
 

TheDeuce222

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I know people poo poo 2018 right now because of the prospect hype machine but I am bullish on 2018 having at least one true stud in the draft. 2018 looks way better than 2017 to me because the top prospects have the requisite size and athletic ability.

Maybe they all flame out but I reallyhope DA holds on to 2018.
I agree with you in that Ayton, Porter, Doncic, and potentially Carter and Bomba are all 6'7+ and potentially extremely good prospects. I will put in one small caveat. I am a bit concerned the Nets may be significantly better next year. No, not playoff better, but 35 win team? I think it's possible. Caris Levert was a smart pick and if he stays healthy, he is turning into an impressive player. They've been far, far better with Lin on the floor than with him on the bench. They are also likely to add one or two other relevant free agents, and have two later round draft picks next year. I've been thinking that this possibility may make it more likely for Ainge to trade that pick this summer.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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All bets are off if they trade Lopez this summer. One more year on his deal, and are they really willing to commit to a long-term big money deal with Brook Lopez as he enters his 30s? If they don't move him, status quo plus a couple more Booker/Lin-type signings gets them some wins, but they'll also be trying to develop two more rookies and further integrate young guys. Meanwhile the other bottom-feeders can improve as well. A lot hinges on Lopez though as the only reliable scorer on the team.

Yes they've looked better recently but haven't exactly been world-beaters. Two wins against the Knicks, one at home against short-handed Phoenix, one against a hobbled Hawks team, and a squeaker against the fading Pistons. They're playing hard while other teams are starting to coast. In this stretch they also lost at home to (and easily looked worse than) Philly, who only dressed 9 guys. Lin helps but overall I think this is a bit of a mirage.
 

LondonSox

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I know people poo poo 2018 right now because of the prospect hype machine but I am bullish on 2018 having at least one true stud in the draft. 2018 looks way better than 2017 to me because the top prospects have the requisite size and athletic ability.

Maybe they all flame out but I reallyhope DA holds on to 2018.
People who poo poo the 2018 draft are ill informed, the 2018 draft looks fantastic (though obviously early). IT's more big man focused and 2017 is more guard heavy but it's looking like 2018 could be better if anything.
I've made my peace with the Lakers pick potentially not transferring this year and I think they will still be bad next year, barring a miracle, and a shot at Doncic, Porter, Ayton, Bamba, Sexton, Collins etc is just fine.

Yet another stud point forward, except this one can SHOOT!
 

DannyDarwinism

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I know people poo poo 2018 right now because of the prospect hype machine but I am bullish on 2018 having at least one true stud in the draft. 2018 looks way better than 2017 to me because the top prospects have the requisite size and athletic ability.

Maybe they all flame out but I reallyhope DA holds on to 2018.

I know this was discussed a while back, but looking at it, I think it was a bit overstated. The top-rated high school prospects typically do end up being impact players in the NBA. I'd be curious to see how this compares to other major sports, but that would be a bit too time consuming, so, for what it's worth, here' the ESPN top 5 recruits (American H.S. seniors) since 2010, followed by other notable guys from that class and where they were ranked by ESPN as HS seniors:

2010: Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, Kyrie, Brandon Knight, Josh Selby (weak class, a bunch of rotation players in the top 40, but no one particularly notable)
2011: Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, Austin Rivers, Kidd-Gilchrist, Beal (Rodney Hood #31, Otto Porter #42, Brogdon #73, yeah he's old)
2012: Noel, Shabazz, Isiah Austin, Kaleb Tarcweski, Kyle Anderson (Steven Adams #6, Smart #10, Gary Harris #11, Rozier #74, Valentine #98)
2013: Wiggins, Jabari, Julius Randle, Aaron Gordon, Andrew Harrison (Embiid #6, James Young #8, LaVine #50, Josh Hart#90)
2014: Okafor, Myles Turner, Cliff Alexander, Tyus Jones, Mudiay (KAT #9, DAR #13, Winslow #15, Booker #18, Trippy McTedcruzface #21,
2015: Simmons, Labisierre, Ingram, Jaylen, Henry Ellenson (Mostly too early, but Chriss #60)

Out of the 30 top five guys, Tarcweski and Austin (due to Marfan Syndrome) are the only guys who went undrafted and never played in the NBA, and Selby and Harrison are the only guys who went in the second round. Four guys went #1 overall, and another 6 went 2nd or 3rd. Twenty out of the thirty went in the lottery. Only six are not currently rotation players in the NBA, one of those is Ben Simmons and another has Marfan Syndrome. So not a lot of false positives, and Otto Porter at #60 is looking like the biggest false negative out of this group. As far as I can see, Elfrid Payton's the only real impact guy who didn't crack his top 100.

Edit- going back as far as I can find, here's the rest of the top 5s:

2009- Avery Bradley, Derick Favors, Xavier Henry, DeMarcus Cousins, John Wall (Kawhi #56, Middleton, #82)
2008- Brandon Jennings, Samardo Samuels (?), Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday, BJ Mullens (Derozan #8, Kemba #14, Draymond #36, Terrelle Pryor, WR #39, Klay #53,
2007- Kevin Love, Eric Gordon, OJ Mayo, Kyle Singler, Derrick Rose (Blake Griffin #18, Harden #21, Evan Turner #49)

Going back further finds more false negatives, with Curry, Westbrook, Jimmy Butler, Isaiah and Gordon Hayward all failing to crack the composite top 100 in their classes.
 
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Cellar-Door

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I want the #1 pick over a few rounds of playoffs. Mostly because I think Fultz is the best prospect in the 2017 and 2018 drafts combined.
 

smastroyin

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Yeah, where the Nets 2018 pick falls feels even more important to me than the 2017 pick, just because the 10th pick compared to the 1st next year is way worse than the 4th compared to 1st this year, and there seem to be a lot of tank contenders next year:

Phoenix - very easy to see them dealing off Beldsoe and tanking and giving big minutes to their young guys
Sacto - if they are hiring Hinkie you have to make them favorites to tank (they send their 2019 pick to PHI but own their 2018)
Magic - an awful team, pretty sure they are going to not try and do the sign some guys cause we think we're contending routine
Knicks - expecting a fire sale and rebuild around Porzingis, but I guess you never know what they'll try, and Porzingis and scrubs alone might be better than most of the rest of these teams
Lakers - if they drop out of the top 3 this year with the ping pong balls, then they don't get a player this year, and they have big incentive for one more tank year to get a top player and then enter the FA market after the 18 season.
Mavs - Cuban understands the cycles and I could see them also off-loading if Dirk decides to retire (and maybe even if he doesn't)

Essentially you have to hope that:
- Carmelo refuses to waive his no-trade and the Knicks decide they have to at least try
- Lakers keep their pick this year, making next year's go to the Sixers, so they have incentive to compete for the FA
- Dirk doesn't retire
- I'm wrong about Orlando and they try to put together a team
- Lopez gets traded.

My understanding of the hypothetical is that we have no control over what happens in 2018, so there is all of this risk priced in to that choice. (never mind the additional risk that even with the great prospects they don't actually pan out, not like we haven't seen that story many many MANY times before), and that choice 2 isn't an ECF loss (I guess we can presume one since noone seems to think the Celtics can compete in a playoff series with anyone they might meet in the ECF) but also that it doesn't come attached to Danny Ainge all of a sudden being a dumb idiot and signing this core to unreasonable deals just because they had some playoff success.

What would option 2 have to be to get people to select it? Maybe that's a better question. I assume anything other than the banner would be out. But what about banner 18? Would that be enough to satisfy the dreamlust of lottery built core? I sound condescending but I don't really mean to.
 
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DannyDarwinism

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I know people poo poo 2018 right now because of the prospect hype machine but I am bullish on 2018 having at least one true stud in the draft. 2018 looks way better than 2017 to me because the top prospects have the requisite size and athletic ability.

Maybe they all flame out but I reallyhope DA holds on to 2018.
People who poo poo the 2018 draft are ill informed, the 2018 draft looks fantastic (though obviously early). IT's more big man focused and 2017 is more guard heavy but it's looking like 2018 could be better if anything.
I've made my peace with the Lakers pick potentially not transferring this year and I think they will still be bad next year, barring a miracle, and a shot at Doncic, Porter, Ayton, Bamba, Sexton, Collins etc is just fine.

Yet another stud point forward, except this one can SHOOT!
This is the podcast I was referring to above, they touch on all of the guys LondonSox lists, along with some others like Wendell Carter. It's definitely worth a listen if you're interested in the 2018 class. And here's a quick write-up of Wednesday night's McDonald's game by Cole Zwicker, focusing on those guys. Porter was the MVP. Bamba apparently shined against Ayton, who certainly looks the part of a future dominant modern NBA big, but has questions about his motor. Bamba already has a longer wingspan than anyone in the NBA- an inch longer than Gobert, the guy I often hear him compared to. Robert Williams certainly made a bold decision to stay in school given next year's big class compared to this years.

Obviously the McDonalds game is an exhibition, but at least it's good to see these against other elite athletes instead of typical high schoolers. Doncic, on the other hand, already has done his thing at the highest professional level outside of the NBA.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Nice article in the Globe today about the incredible ineptness of the Celtics' offense without IT.

It seems very clear that next year's team needs, at minumum, another shot creator, be it a Butler, Hayward, Fultz, or whomever.
Or what about Millsap? If you could add him to this year's team he would solve so many problems and add so much. This article is from a year ago, but it's a nice look (with videos) at all he can do.
Before this season, I was hoping they would sign Hayward, but I think Millsap fits better, as he is a 4 who can play alongside Horford and can add rebounding and power forward defense that Hayward can't.

The problem is that Millsap would be great for say 2 more years, maybe 3. But he is going to get more years than that. How useful will he be in year 3, 4 or 5? On the other hand, if you keep the draft picks, they will still be fairly cheap players when Millsap is in his decline years.

Signing Millsap and keeping the draft picks seems like a way to contend with the current group for another few seasons, while Jaylen and the upcoming draft picks learn and improve and then become the new nucleus.
 

JakeRae

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I reject the hypothetical. This team is good enough to go to the NBA finals, and this question seems to assume that ECF finals is their best case scenario. (I'd take Fultz over any playoff outcome short of a title, if given a choice, unless the playoff outcome also lets the team successfully recruit Hayward.)
 

mcpickl

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Yeah, but Durant could have made more than that staying with OKC. He sacrificed something like 80 million, and only $40 mil of that is due to the extra season.

edit: I guess this is new but Durant still sacrificed a lot. http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2016/6/28/12050498/kevin-durant-contract-salary-money-nba-free-agent-rumors
This article is a stinker, surprised they never edited it.

To show Durant leaving that much on the table, the authors' theory has Durant signing for less than the max this summer. That won't happen.

Durant will not have given up even one nickel this season, or next season. Assuming he intends, or intended if he stayed in OKC, to sign a longterm deal this summer, he'd give up only around a total 7 million or so over the last 3 years of the deal. He will have given up a 5th guaranteed year, but nowhere near as much dough as that article would have us believe.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The top-rated high school prospects typically do end up being impact players in the NBA. I'd be curious to see how this compares to other major sports, but that would be a bit too time consuming, so, for what it's worth, here' the ESPN top 5 recruits (American H.S. seniors) since 2010, followed by other notable guys from that class and where they were ranked by ESPN as HS seniors:
Interesting list, thanks for putting it together. I don't know about other sports but to be a generational talent in the NBA requires so much ability and athleticism, people can tell who has a shot even when players are young. LeBron was the king as early as 8th grade. Kidd was talked about in high school. Etc. etc. etc.

What people seem to miss is that while generational can be identified early, the comverse - that early identification means generational talent - is not true. There's a hundred ways to fail even if the talent is there. But almost no one is going to "grind" their way to becoming a generational talent.
 

DJnVa

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There's a hundred ways to fail even if the talent is there. But almost no one is going to "grind" their way to becoming a generational talent.
Depends on your definition. Curry was rated something like the 51st best PG coming out of HS and 6 feet tall as a senior.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Depends on your definition. Curry was rated something like the 51st best PG coming out of HS and 6 feet tall as a senior.
He did say "almost" no one. Curry certainly fits the bill. Westbrook was only the 38th rated SG in the nation going in to UCLA. Lilliard was less highly regarded, but probably doesn't qualify as a "generational talent". Jimmy Bulter grinded his way to very goodness, at a minimum.

Argument 1: Felipe Lopez I fell for it!
Man that class was bad. Antoine went on to the best career out of anyone, he was ranked top 5. Old friends Danny Fortson and LaFrentz were both top 10. Chris Herren was top 40. Mickey Curley cracked the top 100.

One guy in the top 40 is a first-ballot Hall of Famer though:

Tony Gonzalez.
 

smastroyin

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I think so. This franchise really needs a nice playoff series win and then maybe we'll all get a little more bullish.

One of my buddies posed the following hypothetical to me:

1) First round loss and #1 pick

Or

2) ECF and #4 pick

If you had to choose one of these hypotheticals, what would you pick?
How about #1 and ECF? :fonz:
 

InstaFace

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This thread definitely brings the smiles today, but while we're at it...
I want the #1 pick over a few rounds of playoffs. Mostly because I think Fultz is the best prospect in the 2017 and 2018 drafts combined.
Can you give us some reasoning for why you feel this way? I'm grasping at straws trying to get a sense for the differences in skillset and projectability and measurables etc between Fultz, the other top guys in this year's draft, and other recent Guard top draftees, as I don't know basketball as well as I do other sports.
 

Cellar-Door

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This thread definitely brings the smiles today, but while we're at it...


Can you give us some reasoning for why you feel this way? I'm grasping at straws trying to get a sense for the differences in skillset and projectability and measurables etc between Fultz, the other top guys in this year's draft, and other recent Guard top draftees, as I don't know basketball as well as I do other sports.
One thing about Fultz is that he does everything well, he's not a Westbrook athlete but still a very good one (better than Ball for example by quite a bit) and Offensively he can score at every level and create shots and/or contact off a wide variety of actions. His defense is a work in progress but the physical attributes are there and intermittently so was technique. He is a strong contributor on the boards for a guard, excellent passer etc.
The 3 level scoring ability is what makes me think he's the best prospect over the 2 years is that he has no glaring area of concern (Ball has handle, shooting and athleticism concerns, Modric has athleticism concerns, Fox shooting, Jackson shooting, handle, personality) Porter and Ayton are great prospects too, but we've seen less of them on a big stage so tougher to grade.