Lets Talk Brissett

bakahump

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A big factor in the JG situation is "whether the Patriots want to go into 2017 without a proven Backup"

Many have stated that JG gives that kind of insurance while Brissett is still unproven.

While there isnt alot of meat, what there is indicates to me other wise.

First lets establish what we are talking about. Are we looking for someone who can come in for 3 games and "Save/maintain the season" if Brady gets a sprain? Or are we looking for the Post Brady Heir.
While I think its true that JG would be a much better long term Heir, I am not sure that he is that much of an improvement over JB in a 3-4 game "Save the season" scenario.
Couple that with the fact that JG probably "cant" assume the Starting QB title for at least 3 years. Add in the subsequent complications with contacts and salaries and I really see no down side looking for a "valuable haul" for JG in a trade. While going into 2017/2018 with JB as the primary Backup.

JB has started 2 games and played another .5. One of which with a significant hand injury that limited his ability to throw. Strangely in that last game he did better then his previous start.

In those 2.5 games he throw for:
61.8% completion
400 Yards
83.9 rating
As a Rookie.

The 3 teams he played where Miami (29th), Hou (1) and Buffalo(19). A surprisingly encompassing measuring stick considering just 3 teams.
He had his best "game" against Miami not unsurprisingly. The same team that JG was destroying before his injury. His 100.2 and 92 yards on 6 completions was outstanding. Maybe Brissett would have also had a "Coming out party" had he been 1st man up.
His next game was against Houston. Despite their #1 defense limiting him to 57.89% completion and only 103 yards he still led them to a win. He did utilize his legs to a significant degree (48 yards on 8 attempts) in this game which was a big help. Even against a top defense Brissett was able to move the ball and score.
His last game (with the hand injury) was against Buffalo. Despite the thumb JB threw for 62.96% completion and 205 yards. Certainly not great but not terrible. As we all know he couldnt get points in this game, not helped by Fumbles (probably due to the injury).
In both the Tex and Buff game Gronk was essentially a non factor (3 targets, 1 rec for 11 yards). Edelman also was not his normal productive self (10,5,54) in the 2 games. While Gronk was injury related Edelman is surprising. Considering that Bennett (9,7,119) and White (7,6,52) where operating in the same areas as Edelman and had good success. I tend to think it was a timing and unfamiliarity thing.

I propose that with more reps with starters like Edelman, Gronk and Cooks JB could significantly improve on these passing numbers to around 200-250 yard per game and a similar 60% completion. When we mix in his athleticism and ability to scramble that he flashed in the Buffalo game then he would seem to be a more then capable backup. Especially considering the other 2 phases of the game for the Patriots probably wont put him in a bad situation.(wait where is Cyrus Jones?)

All this leads me to conclude that as a 3 game backup he would be fine. Probably resulting in a 2-1 or 1-2 record.
Over a longer stretch he would probably be .500 or slightly below. Say 5-5 over 10.

If Brady goes down for a long stretch, then with either JB or JG our playoff chances are dramatically diminished from a favorite to make the SB to a team that will have to fight to win round 1 (home or away).

Thats pretty much what the best teams in the NFL (not named the Patriots) contend with on a yearly basis.

With either JG or JB we would have to hope that any injury to Brady allowed a couple of games for him to work back into shape and full health for the playoffs if we want to continue to be a prohibitive favorite in every round up to the SB.
JG would not give us that. A fair estimation of JG over 16 games probably puts us at 10-6 or 11-5 and fighting for the AFC East or a WC. A fair estimation of JB over the same 16 probably puts us at 8-8 or 9-7 with an outside chance at the WC.

The key in my opinion is the return in trade for JG. Lets assume the 12 and 108. The 12 could infuse a significant rookie contribution onto the team. Such players as Danny Shelton, Devonte Parker, Melvin Gordon, OBJ, Aaron Donald and Ryan Shazier are players taken around that slot. Not all are stars but many go on to significant NFL careers. 108 could give us players like James White, Shaq Mason, Bryan Stork, Aaron Hernandez Or Matt Slater. While not all will be hits, the Patriots have done well in that 3rd/4th/5th round historically. Also the 108 would be more a developmental player that probably wouldnt help much in 2017 but could have significant impact in 2018+.

JB over a 4 game stretch + "Melvin Gordon"+ "Bryan Stork" > JG over the same 4 game stretch.

So I have tried to make my rambling case of why JB isnt a bad "backup" over "4 games" who wont sink the season and why the return from a JG trade tips the scales towards assessing JB as a "Viable Backup".

This ignores the idea that Next year JG is still a/as valuable commodity with as many suitors and that they are willing to pay a franchise tag or sign JG long term.

What are your thoughts?
 

Stitch01

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JB ran an offense with training wheels for 2.5 games. That's not a black mark against him, he wasnt supposed to be starting NFL games anywhere close to that soon, but I think its close to useless to try and extrapolate stats and team performance and performance with individual players from those three games. He gets a gold star and respect for poise and toughness, and we have some indication the team likes him given their push to activate him from IR late last year, but that's really about all we have. The Pats evaluation of JB will come largely from what progress they saw him make in practice last year. I dont think we have anything to say he can or can't click with Edelman, could throw for x yards a game, would have y record if he started. We know he's a guy the Pats kinda like and who didnt vomit all over himself in his first NFL work as a rookie.

We dont know all that much about JG either to be honest, but seems pretty likely that JG>>>>>JB in the Pats system in 2017 if needed.
 

bakahump

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Stitch I agree on both points. JB did run a very basic offense. And was relatively successful considering. That's a good thing. If he had failed miserably, I don't think as many of us are arguing that JG is expendable. Where we may differ is There is also no reason to think JB couldn't run a deeper version with another year in the system. So IMHO the smart money would be on "A better version then last year". How much? Good question.

I also agree that JG true talent is still unknown, More then many of us (myself included), want to admit. He could be the product of playing lousy defenses, great game planning or he could be lucky, a combination or something else entirely. We simply don't know.

Both of those lead me to believe in the idea that trading JG is the way to go. Some points I keep coming back to.

1. JG may never achieve anything close to what we think. If another team is willing to offer something of real value (Say a #1 or a 1+) for that potential why not take it. IOW this is not a Steve Young situation where we KNOW he is a Starting Caliber potential pro bowler. Even if he might be keeping him this year signals only that. That we keep him this year. Its not like keeping him sets the stage for a transition from Brady to him per se. Right now this is all about "insurance".
2. The need for a backup/that insurance in 2017 is some minor %. 5? 10? 20%? We are talking about losing value on JG this year on the chance that we need him. If that even happens it will also probably be only a portion of the season (Say 4 games).
3. If that chance comes to pass, JG probably equates to slightly better then JB over the small portion of the season we need a Backup Starter. IOW If we assume that JG is "All That" and goes 4-0, Its also probably fair to assume JB could go 2-2 over the same 4 games. That leaves Brady with 12 games. Say Brady goes 9-3 We are looking at 13-3 or 11-5 as the real difference of keeping JG and forgoing the Value he currently holds.
4. JG may....MAY have significant value over a full 16 games when compared to JB. But the odds of Brady being knocked out in game 1 for the entire season is extremely low, 2008 excepted.

The most likely scenarios to me are:
1. Brady plays the full season (Maybe he slips as age creeps up on him maybe he doesnt but plays the whole season)
2. Brady misses 1-4 games due to an injury (Basically like this year)
3. Brady misses significant time (8-12 games)
4. Brady misses almost the entire season 12+ games.

If 1 happens with Brissett as backup then no biggie.
If 2 happens with Brissett its really not a big deal we are still fighting for #1 seed.
If 3 happens with Brissett we probably end with somewhere between @10 wins and a probable playoff spot. Hopefully the Brady injury and recovery happens during an opportune time and Brady is back for the playoffs. If not then its simply not our year.
If 4 happens with Brissett we probably end up with 8-10 wins and probably out of the playoffs. If that happens we still have a young team, A more experienced JB for 2018, and the mythical "Brady Window" is probably closed regardless after a season long injury.

Conversely with JG
If 1 happens No biggie.
If 2 happens we are probably the #1 seed
If 3 happens we might be fighting for the #1 seed but probably more like a #2 or #3.
If 4 happens we are probably playing on WC weekend with a long road to get to the SB. It does set us up better for 2018+ but only by cutting ties with Brady and Signing a still "unproven if promising" JG long term.

In 3 and 4 of both those scenarios we are probably not making the 2017 SB let alone winning.

I don't see where the second Situation with JG as the Backup is worth forgoing the potential value that could be gained in a trade, The conditions needed to make JG over JB a difference maker are so low as to even be considered.
 
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phenweigh

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My purely speculative thought is that the trade JG decision is on hold until training camp or even into the preseason. This will give the Patriots time to add to their assessment of JB, and see if the assessments of potential trading partners regarding their own quarterback situation has become more desperate.
 

RG33

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I'm pretty confident that BB puts a lot more stock in how Brissett practiced, prepared, and studied in film sessions last year, than what he did in the 2.5 games he played with a minimal offensive game plan and those training wheels on.

As BB has pointed out before, usually the biggest jump a player makes is from year 1 to 2 -- so even if they were really happy with Brissett overall last year, I would find it surprising if they went into next year with him as their best option for backup QB regardless of what they do with JG.
 

bakahump

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RG33, If we can expect a "big leap" in year 2, wouldnt we have More faith he could be the Primary BU?

And again I agree that they seeming like his behind the scenes activity else they would have brought in a different QB after the JG injury during the Brady Suspension.

If those are fair points then again I say JB would be perfectly fine as the primary BU in the unlikely event we need one.
 

rodderick

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Belichick went into the 2009 season with UDFA Brian Hoyer as Brady's only backup. Unless Brissett has been an immense disappointment, I see no reason to believe Bill would be hesitant to trust him in that role.
 

Hoodie Sleeves

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This whole thing seems sort of like "Adam Dunn is on pace to strikeout 400 times and walk 400 times" after the first game of the year.

It's good that Brisset in a very limited role didn't shit the bed, and throw a million interceptions - but Buffalo basically treated them like Brisset was Tavaris Jackson and Blount was a young Adrian Peterson - they ran a lot of 8-in-the-box and dared the Patriots to throw, and Brisset wasn't really able to take advantage of that (and Buffalo's defense wasn't good). He got sacked a ton, fumbled a ton, clearly had trouble with the game speed, and couldn't handle making anything beyond super simple reads.

I don't think we should look at him negatively because of this (because he clearly wasn't ready, and wasn't expected to be), but I don't think anything particularly positive can be extrapolated from it. The idea that we can assume that Brisset will be almost as good as JG next year is absurd wishcasting - the majority of drafted NFL quarterbacks are never as good as JG was in his limited time last year, and Brisset looks super raw.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Belichick went into the 2009 season with UDFA Brian Hoyer as Brady's only backup. Unless Brissett has been an immense disappointment, I see no reason to believe Bill would be hesitant to trust him in that role.
This.

I understand that Brady's age brings with it an increased chance of injury, by definition. But I think it's mitigated from what we know about TB, his current health status and his performance last season. Carrying that forward, we are talking catastrophic injury insurance when concerned about the backup.

Short of that, TB is playing every meaningful snap next year. A lot of folks seem to think BB will cold heartedly bench him if his performance declines, if he 'falls off the qb cliff'. I think they're kidding themselves. TB can go out and throw 20 picks over the first four games and he's not getting benched. It's not happening.

So, if you happen to agree with all that, JB is a perfectly cromulent backup and seemingly a better or at least equal prospect compared to figures like an undrafted Hoyer, Mallet, Cassel, Davey, Miller, Gutierrez, Kingsbury, O'Connell, Huard or an aging Flutie or Testaverde.

I don't know where this perception that the Pats place such a premium on the backup came from. They've spent draft capital to keep the funnel full, but that could easily be seen as equal part investment as much as worrying about who is carrying the clipboard.

I think we saw a good sign of what they think of JB and what their intentions are when they brought him back from IR. They wouldn't have wasted the roster spot if they didn't want him practicing with the team every day and developing, with intention.

I know people cite BB's comment about the Colts when Peyton went down, but I think that was more a comment on tanking (which they were clearly doing) and/or having a planned backup ready and able. It's well publicized that Manning never let backups take first team snaps, then he's out and they yank Kerry Collins out of retirement and then Curtis Painter, throw them into an offense that was heavily predicated on Manning running it at the line and they shit the bed. I think when BB made that comment, *that was what he talking about, not that he worries about the backup being able to step in and keep the train going full speed.
 

Harry Hooper

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If you look at Brady's career stats, it would seem far more likely he suffers a major season-ending injury than he misses a game or two. Maybe BB's willingness to go rather light at backup QB in the past was more about having few expectations that any backup could take the team to a Super Bowl win.
 

bakahump

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[QUOTE="... The idea that we can assume that Brisset will be almost as good as JG next year is absurd wishcasting - the majority of drafted NFL quarterbacks are never as good as JG was in his limited time last year, and Brisset looks super raw.[/QUOTE]

Maybe.
Its also wishcasting to assume that JG is actually as good as we saw. Its the same Dunn 400k comparison. We simply havent seen enough.

And "Almost" is a subjective term. "Almost" as good as giving the team a chance to win for 2-4 weeks? I think its quite possible. "Almost" as sure a bet to throw for 250+ yards per game as JG is? Probably not yet.

And as I keep saying at the end of the day this is either a quick 2-4 game replacement or its a catastrophic Brady injury. With the former if the backup loses all 4 starts its not the end of the world. With the Latter it doesnt really matter who we have.
 

Hoodie Sleeves

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Short of that, TB is playing every meaningful snap next year. A lot of folks seem to think BB will cold heartedly bench him if his performance declines, if he 'falls off the qb cliff'. I think they're kidding themselves. TB can go out and throw 20 picks over the first four games and he's not getting benched. It's not happening..
Is there any particular reason you think this? It seems completely counter to everything BB has done over his whole career.


Are there any other examples of players BB continued to play after they've clearly lost it/the backup surpassed them? I would be utterly shocked (assuming JG is on the roster) if Brady is starting after throwing 20 picks in 4 games.

And as I keep saying at the end of the day this is either a quick 2-4 game replacement or its a catastrophic Brady injury. With the former if the backup loses all 4 starts its not the end of the world. With the Latter it doesnt really matter who we have.
Were this true, I don't think we'd be talking about getting a 1st for JG. The idea that the Patriots aren't a playoff team without Brady is a really strange one to me.
 

bakahump

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So your stance is that without Brady and with JG they are a Division winner? WC? HFA Fav?
Whats your stance on without Brady and with JB?
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Is there any particular reason you think this? It seems completely counter to everything BB has done over his whole career.


Are there any other examples of players BB continued to play after they've clearly lost it/the backup surpassed them? I would be utterly shocked (assuming JG is on the roster) if Brady is starting after throwing 20 picks in 4 games.
Clearly I was being hyperbolic, but I think it's completely insane to think that TB falls under the same rules as any player BB has ever coached. Nor would Kraft allow it. Every word that comes out of either's mouth about him tells me that. BB's reactions at press conference when the subject is broached tells me that. TB will be done on his own terms or by injury. If he sucks that as, he will likely walk away. But he's never getting benched and he's never getting traded. He is literally the exception to the rule.
 

Hoodie Sleeves

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Clearly I was being hyperbolic, but I think it's completely insane to think that TB falls under the same rules as any player BB has ever coached. Nor would Kraft allow it. Every word that comes out of either's mouth about him tells me that. BB's reactions at press conference when the subject is broached tells me that. TB will be done on his own terms or by injury. If he sucks that as, he will likely walk away. But he's never getting benched and he's never getting traded. He is literally the exception to the rule.
We'll just have to disagree then.

I just can't see BB punting a season to let Brady go out on his own terms. I think in the proposed season (where Brady throws 20 interceptions in 4 games) BB sits him down after the 4th game and says "Thank you for everything, but you're done - do you want to retire, do you want use to trade you, or do you want to ride pine?" And then I think Brady makes some sort of statement to the press about wanting to spend more time with his family

I think Brady will be the exception in that he'll be given opportunities to make it look like it's on his terms, but I think the chances of BB letting a clearly ineffective Brady crater a season approach zero.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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We'll just have to disagree then.

I just can't see BB punting a season to let Brady go out on his own terms. I think in the proposed season (where Brady throws 20 interceptions in 4 games) BB sits him down after the 4th game and says "Thank you for everything, but you're done - do you want to retire, do you want use to trade you, or do you want to ride pine?" And then I think Brady makes some sort of statement to the press about wanting to spend more time with his family

I think Brady will be the exception in that he'll be given opportunities to make it look like it's on his terms, but I think the chances of BB letting a clearly ineffective Brady crater a season approach zero.
You understand what the word 'hyperbolic' means, right?

If Brady gets to the point where he's submarining a season, it's going to be too late to save it. He's not getting pulled after four games. If he's bad enough that BB thinks it's time to go to the backup, then the season is gone already anyway.

And yeah, we'll have to disagree. If you think they will bench or cut or trade the player that built the franchise into the model, the guy who is the GOAT and the guy the owner refers to as a son, yeah I think you're delusional.

Insert BB 'Jesus christ' gif here.
 

tims4wins

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You understand what the word 'hyperbolic' means, right?

If Brady gets to the point where he's submarining a season, it's going to be too late to save it. He's not getting pulled after four games. If he's bad enough that BB thinks it's time to go to the backup, then the season is gone already anyway.

And yeah, we'll have to disagree. If you think they will bench or cut or trade the player that built the franchise into the model, the guy who is the GOAT and the guy the owner refers to as a son, yeah I think you're delusional.

Insert BB 'Jesus christ' gif here.
See everything that we know about BB suggests he will realize this is happening before it starts to fully play out on the field. He won't LET Brady submarine a season.

Edit: and Brady may not let it happen either
 

Hoodie Sleeves

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And yeah, we'll have to disagree. If you think they will bench or cut or trade the player that built the franchise into the model, the guy who is the GOAT and the guy the owner refers to as a son, yeah I think you're delusional.
I don't think you'll see him benched or cut - I think we'll see him retire. But I think that retirement won't be completely of his choosing. I don't see a universe existing where BB knowing puts a team on the field for meaningful games with a worse roster than he could, especially to assuage someone's ego.

Kraft's opinion is irrelevant at this point - he defers to BB on football operations, and that's pretty much a condition of BB's employment.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I don't think you'll see him benched or cut - I think we'll see him retire. But I think that retirement won't be completely of his choosing. I don't see a universe existing where BB knowing puts a team on the field for meaningful games with a worse roster than he could, especially to assuage someone's ego.

Kraft's opinion is irrelevant at this point - he defers to BB on football operations, and that's pretty much a condition of BB's employment.
Ok, so do you think that's happening before next season? Because otherwise the discussion is moot, because they're not franchising the backup (unless to trade him). So JG is gone unless you see that scenario playing out in 2017-18. And I see no viable reason to think that's plausible (again, short of career ending injury).

And Kraft's opinion is always relevant. He owns the team and is the final say. He primarily lets BB do what he wants, but to think he has no input or would be held hostage over a single move, especially that one, I find naive.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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See everything that we know about BB suggests he will realize this is happening before it starts to fully play out on the field. He won't LET Brady submarine a season.

Edit: and Brady may not let it happen either
And again, that's not happening while JG is a legitimate option as successor. So, JB is the future until another one is drafted.

Edit: the biggest thing we know about BB is the way he handles the cap. There's no earthly way he's devoting $20M to the backup QB as a 'break glass in case of fire'.
 

Stitch01

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I don't think you'll see him benched or cut - I think we'll see him retire. But I think that retirement won't be completely of his choosing. I don't see a universe existing where BB knowing puts a team on the field for meaningful games with a worse roster than he could, especially to assuage someone's ego.

Kraft's opinion is irrelevant at this point - he defers to BB on football operations, and that's pretty much a condition of BB's employment.
Brady has said emphatically that 2017 is not his last season. Given his age, its of course possible he falls off the cliff and retires, but if he's pretty good next year he's not hanging them up at the end of the year. At that point, Jimmy G's contract is up.

Kraft's opinion as owner is not irrelevant and he will 100% have to sign off on any move involving Tom Brady.
 

tims4wins

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This really is a unique situation in NFL history. While Montana won 4 titles in the 80s, they lost in the conference championship in 1990, then he missed all of 1991 with an injury, and Young became the starter. Montana was basically forced out by injury, not necessarily performance. And while BB has the history with Kosar in Cleveland, Kosar was not a 5X champion (hell he didn't even win one). It is hard to see Brady getting benched on performance alone.
 
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MuppetAsteriskTalk

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And the difference between 'basically' and 'completely and utterly unchecked' control, is called Tom Brady.

Which is to say nothing of the fact he was simply deflecting a question.
You have as much idea as I do about how sincere Kraft's answer is and if he would block a Brady benching or trade.

And Belichick isn't exactly chopped liver. If BB felt strongly that benching or trading Brady was the right move and Kraft intervened, who would Kraft rather lose if it came down to that? Because I don't think BB would put up with a no from Kraft on a roster decision.
 

MuppetAsteriskTalk

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Anyway if it came down to Brady playing so bad he had to be benched, most likely an invented injury would be the solution.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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You have as much idea as I do about how sincere Kraft's answer is and if he would block a Brady benching or trade.

And Belichick isn't exactly chopped liver. If BB felt strongly that benching or trading Brady was the right move and Kraft intervened, who would Kraft rather lose if it came down to that? Because I don't think BB would put up with a no from Kraft on a roster decision.
And I don't think Kraft is some kind of pushover or the relationship is as one sided as you suppose. He's a cut throat business man. He's hardly going to be held hostage by an employee over something like this. The fan base would mutiny and his brand would suffer. If you think he would let any of that happen or surrender literally utter and all control over his franchise to anyone else, then you're not well versed in how the Krafts operate. Bob Kraft is not the kindly grandpa he portrays as. And JG is not Steve Young under contract control with no free agency. End of day, even BB answers to someone.

We can go back and forth as long as you like, but the day that decision needs to be made/approved will come well after JG is no longer under contractual control of the NEP and is thus completely irrelevant with regard to talk about JG or JB.
 

Stitch01

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The most likely and more difficult scenario relevant for JimmyG isn't Brady playing bad enough to be benched. Its having to decide on a QB for 2018 and beyond after Brady plays pretty well this year.

I believe Bob Kraft will have a large say in that and am not convinced BB treats Brady like a commodity either.

I don't buy the Bob Kraft has literally zero say on personnel decisions. If BB wanted to sign Ray Rice, Bob Kraft would have no say?
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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The most likely and more difficult scenario relevant for JimmyG isn't Brady playing bad enough to be benched. Its having to decide on a QB for 2018 and beyond after Brady plays pretty well this year.

I believe Bob Kraft will have a large say in that and am not convinced BB treats Brady like a commodity either.

I don't buy the Bob Kraft has literally zero say on personnel decisions. If BB wanted to sign Ray Rice, Bob Kraft would have no say?
Well, then he would be out a coach and a RB. That'd just be foolish.
 

Curt S Loew

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This really is a unique situation in NFL history. While Montana won 3 titles in the 80s, they lost in the conference championship in 1990, then he missed all of 1991 with an injury, and Young became the starter. Montana was basically forced out by injury, not necessarily performance. And while BB has the history with Kosar in Cleveland, Kosar was not a 5X champion (hell he didn't even win one). It is hard to see Brady getting benched on performance alone.
We all know Brady is the GOAT, but don't short Joe a championship.;)
 

mauf

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Many (though not all) QBs who run a spread-type offense* in college need a "redshirt" year to adjust to the NFL. Marcus Mariota is a good example; he struggled in a greatly simplified system as a rookie, but he took a big step forward in year 2 and looked like the guy the Titans thought they were getting with the 2nd overall pick. Brissett wasn't as touted as Mariota, obviously, but he looked like a similar project. Other than being encouraged by his poise when he got pressed into service, I'm not drawing any conclusions one way or the other based on his premature debut.

*- Virtually every FBS team employs some spread concepts. I'm talking about teams that run a lot of run-pass options, frequently roll the QB so he only needs to read half the field, etc. I didn't see Brissett play in college, but my understanding is that he ran one of these offenses.