Garoppolo-Butler Prediction Thread

Predict the resolution of the Jimmy Garoppolo and Malcolm Butler situations


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E5 Yaz

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We pause with a month or so to go in the draft to collect consensus on what we believe will happen to Malcolm Butler and Jimmy Garoppolo.

I started to do a poll that included all possible outcomes -- trades (to the most rumored teams and/or other teams, etc -- but it was so cumbersome that it would make no sense. So, if you would, if you are predicting one or both to be gone ... please indicate which team(s) you think they will be headed.

I'm going with ... both will be Patriots next season
 

Koufax

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JG leaves for a boatload of picks. Malcolm stays because that Pats want him and they are holding the cards.
 

Sportsbstn

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Both stay. #12 pick will not be enough for JG, as the Patriots have options next year with him too, and they are loaded for super bowl this season again. Malcolm just won't find a buyer who will give him the huge contract and give up the pick as well. Patriots won't settle on either
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Jimmy stays. Bidding and asking prices just aren't going to cross here. The Patriots (rightly IMO) clearly think he is worth a whole lot. Other teams (wrongly IMO) are too conservative in their thinking to offer anywhere near that much for a guy with a limited resume who was drafted at the back end of the 2nd round a few years ago.

I don't have a strong opinion on Butler but lean toward him being traded to New Orleans.
 

mwonow

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I voted both stay, but would be just fine with the 'Jimmy-for-a-1+, Malcolm stays' outcome.
 

Billy R Ford

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Butler definitely stays. The closest comp is Welker, but the media is wildly misunderstanding the Welker trade. Welker had a second round tender on him. In order to get Miami to agree to the sign-and-trade, Scott Pioli had to offer the second rounder plus a deal-sweetening seventh rounder (which is what they ended up getting him for).

For Butler, the media is bizarrely assuming it will go the opposite way. The analogue from Welker would be New Orleans approaching the Pats and getting them to agree to the sign-and-trade by offering what they'd get in the tender (#11) plus a deal sweetener. No one thinks they will do that. But instead, the media is saying the Pats will lower their offer from #11 to #32 for Butler- the opposite of what Miami, a more poorly-run franchise, got from the Pats for Welker. That makes no sense and is only supported by conspiracy theories related to a handshake agreement over the Cooks trade.

Garoppolo I think may leave if BB thinks the picks make sense for them. The wild card there is how much faith they have in Brissett. But I think they ultimately both stay- there's just very little reason to them.
 

nattysez

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I think they both stay.

No matter how invincible 12 thinks he is, BB has got to go into the year with a viable back-up, and I don't think JB is there yet.

The Saints would be foolish to overpay for Butler -- that team has too many holes to fill to give up what BB will want for Butler.

If they both perform well this season, BB can transition tag JG and franchise tag Butler and trade them both.
 

SMU_Sox

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I wonder how much BB's experience with Jeff Hostetler and Giants influences his views on this situation. While I think BB demands a competent backup like a Hoyer or a Cassel he occasionally gambles for both competency and upside like what Hostetler was to the Giants even though Phil Simms had the starting job locked down (until he didn't of course). Garappolo isn't Brady but he isn't nearly as limited as the normal backup. Most playoff caliber team's Super Bowl dreams turn into nightmares if their QB goes down. It's not often where a team is constructed so well that they can be set up for good to great success even if the starting QB misses significant time. With a defense that is at least average and probably above average in the top 10-15 range with top five special teams and an offense loaded with talent Garropolo is in a unique situation. He gives the Patriots the upside to still be competitive in the playoffs without Brady. He's still a somewhat risky either luxury asset or key safety net depending on your perspective. I think BB would trade him for a top 12 pick (plus maybe? probably? more) depending either on the board at the time, pre-draft if he likes enough players or tradeup/down scenarios, etc. I don't think anyone (Cleveland) makes that trade with him though. I also don't think Butler goes to NO because they won't give up their 1-11 so...
They both stay.
Full disclosure: I am 31 so my memory of Hostetler is non-existent. I read about him later on in my life and only saw him play 1-2 games on NFL replay.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I agree Welker is irrelevant to Butler. The way I remember Welker, the Patriots were going to put a poison pill in there and make it impossible for Miami to match.

Kraft at the time was a good soldier and there was a wink and nod agreement that the Patriots wouldn't open the poison pill Pandora's box but would give Miami the seventh rounder to avoid the unseemliness of the poison pill. Eventually, poison pills were prohibited. But that situation was unique.

I think Butler's situation at this point may turn on whether another team gets involved and has a worse draft spot. At that point the math may change a bit.

I think if we make it through this week with no new developments both will be Patriots. But I still think there is something happening behind the scenes on Butler that will break soon so my guess is he will go and Jimmy will stay.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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JG goes to Cleveland for #12 and #65 this year and the latest of their three 2nds next season.

Butler stays if NO actually signs him to an offer sheet, unless they pay market rate, which I can't see them doing when it would also cost them #11. The discount for losing the pick makes him forced to take a reasonable amount and the Pats would match. The Pats also have way more cap space right now, so NO can't even play shenanigans on the terms to prevent it. If the Saints do actually do sign him to an offer at market rate, I'd expect him to go, but I don't see it.

Details matter little on these predictions, but I'll clarify to say I don't see both being on the team next year unless one resigns a reasonable extension, soon. Reason being, they can't franchise both and I don't see BB letting either walk away for a *possible supplemental 3rd when he could get a lot more now.

Yes, JG has value as Brady insurance. But I don't think that's the way BB thinks when he looks at rosters and assets. As we know, he values the marginal value of each player compared to their possible replacement. So I see him viewing the JG situation as 'what is the value of one season of JG as a backup vs one season of JB, in the event Brady gets hurt?' Then weigh that and (again) a *potential 3rd round comp pick a season out vs what he's being offered for JG right now. I can't possibly see how the difference is worth more than a first round pick, especially something like #12, which he could likely turn into a lot of value by moving back in a very deep draft.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I think they will both stay, because Butler does himself a financial disservice by forcing his way out of town right now (vs leaving as a UFA next year), because Brady is 40 and as great as he is his future is uncertain, and because it is possible that the Pats see Garoppolo as Steve Young to Brady's Joe Montana.

That said, the Pats' complete absence of early draft picks is unprecedented for them in the Belickick era and makes me think that a trade of one or the other of them (probably Garoppolo) could easily be in the works.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I think they will both stay, because Butler does himself a financial disservice by forcing his way out of town right now (vs leaving as a UFA next year), because Brady is 40 and as great as he is his future is uncertain, and because it is possible that the Pats see Garoppolo as Steve Young to Brady's Joe Montana.

That said, the Pats' complete absence of early draft picks is unprecedented for them in the Belickick era and makes me think that a trade of one or the other of them (probably Garoppolo) could easily be in the works.
Problem with the Brady/JG:Montana/Young comp is the 49ers didn't have a salary cap to worry about, there was no free agency and keeping Young on the bench didn't cost them $20M/yr.
 

lexrageorge

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JG goes, but it would not surprise me if he's back if the trade market doesn't shake out like we are hoping.

The Pats have no reason nor incentive nor sense of urgency to give up any leverage regarding Butler. So he stays.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Jimmy stays. Bidding and asking prices just aren't going to cross here. The Patriots (rightly IMO) clearly think he is worth a whole lot. Other teams (wrongly IMO) are too conservative in their thinking to offer anywhere near that much for a guy with a limited resume who was drafted at the back end of the 2nd round a few years ago.

I don't have a strong opinion on Butler but lean toward him being traded to New Orleans.
I wonder how much the Osweiler signing last year is playing into the heads of GMs this year. Teams seems much more hesitant then usual with QBs. Romo, JG, franchising Cousins...Hell, the only QB to really cash in is Glennon, and his 3 year deal makes him easily expendable in the 2nd year. This year is almost unprecedented with the amount of talent available at the QB position, yet all these QB starved teams dont want to pay. It's fucking weird.

I agree with your assessment. The pendulum has swung too far in the other direction this year.
 

DJnVa

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Jimmy stays for one more year. Butler goes for a second round pick. There will be much howling.
There would be.

Because he's a first round tender and a team with 2 first round picks appears to be his only interest. Why would we do this?
 

Stitch01

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I'll stick to Jimmy G goes for #12 and maybe one 4thish round pick, Butler goes for a combination of lower picks that approach, but arent quite, a low first (42 and a 4th in '18 or something like that.. Not super highly confident of either prediction, particularly with Butler.

I hope Butler is back on an RFA appropriate extension and the Pats trade Jimmy G for #12 (if that is indeed on the table) because I dont think they have it in them to move on from Brady after this season and a package centered around 12 seems like too much to pass up for the insurance Jimmy G will provide over the next 12 months.

There would be.

Because he's a first round tender and a team with 2 first round picks appears to be his only interest. Why would we do this?


If a lower pick is the best trade offer on the table and BB decides its best for Butler not to be on the team. The first round tender is leverage for the Pats, its not an absolute arbiter of player value.
 

bsj

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Both will stay.

Saints won't give the 11, and regarding JG, Patriots should and will play hardball. The ask needs to be the 1, with the "settle" point being the 12 and something else significant.
 

Sportsbstn

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I think they will both stay, because Butler does himself a financial disservice by forcing his way out of town right now (vs leaving as a UFA next year), because Brady is 40 and as great as he is his future is uncertain, and because it is possible that the Pats see Garoppolo as Steve Young to Brady's Joe Montana.

That said, the Pats' complete absence of early draft picks is unprecedented for them in the Belickick era and makes me think that a trade of one or the other of them (probably Garoppolo) could easily be in the works.

The only pick they really don't have is a first rounder, as the 2nd round pick was moved back 8 slots. I think it's also unprecedented the trade for a young talent like Cooks who wouldn't be available at pick 32 in many drafts. I'm not sure the pats are in a rush to recoup a first rounder for this reason and don't just view Cooks as the player they got, albeit for 2 years and not 4.
 

Oppo

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Pats get #1, #11, #12

Browns get Brees, Butler

Saints get Jimmy G, #32
 

pappymojo

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I voted Jimmy stays and Malcolm is gone, but if it were my choice, Jimmy would be traded and Malcolm would be extended.

Reading the tea leaves, I don't think they trade Jimmy unless they are blown away by the offer. Further, I don't think the Saints would have had the discussions with Butler if they didn't believe that trading for him was at least possible.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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Payton is on the record saying Saints will not trade #12 for Butler.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/19030663/new-orleans-saints-sign-malcolm-butler-offer-sheet

Which means Butler pretty much has to sign the tender, or maybe take a year away from football to work on his autobiographical movie. But yeah, probably football.

I don't know that, say, #32 and a 2018 2nd from the Saints is enough for the Pats to forgo an affordable year of Butler (and, likely, a 2019 3rd round compensation pick). I think he stays, possibly grumpily.
 

dcmissle

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The only pick they really don't have is a first rounder, as the 2nd round pick was moved back 8 slots. I think it's also unprecedented the trade for a young talent like Cooks who wouldn't be available at pick 32 in many drafts. I'm not sure the pats are in a rush to recoup a first rounder for this reason and don't just view Cooks as the player they got, albeit for 2 years and not 4.
Kraft said it well:

“The draft gives you young people that you basically control your cost for four years, or five years as a first-round draft pick,” Kraft told reporters on Monday. “We’ve gotten some younger players who are known entities. We’ve made some draft picks high up and they haven’t performed well. Having known value versus not being sure — I think Brandin [Cooks] is 23, [Stephon] Gilmore is 26, [Dwayne Allen] is 27. There is a risk-reward decision there.”
"Unprecedented" means very little in this context; it means only that it hasn't happened before. You wouldn't and probably couldn't do this every year, but the draft is just another way of getting good players and this year they went about that via trades and FA.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Payton is on the record saying Saints will not trade #12 for Butler.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/19030663/new-orleans-saints-sign-malcolm-butler-offer-sheet

Which means Butler pretty much has to sign the tender, or maybe take a year away from football to work on his autobiographical movie. But yeah, probably football.

I don't know that, say, #32 and a 2018 2nd from the Saints is enough for the Pats to forgo an affordable year of Butler (and, likely, a 2019 3rd round compensation pick). I think he stays, possibly grumpily.
Well, they don't own #12, so...
 

Pxer

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I think the signs are pointing to no one offering a 1st for Butler, so I think he stays. And that's how I'd prefer it, barring we get a pick in the top 15 or 20.

I still think it makes too much sense to deal Jimmy G before the draft, when his value is highest. Not sure what the real plan is there, but it makes too much sense to deal him if a first or multiple 2nds are on the table.
 

DavidTai

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I think Butler stays. I'm struggling with Garoppolo - I think he stays -unless- there's an insanely good offer, but I think if I were Belichick I would want to wait to see how Brissett has improved.
 

lexrageorge

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Payton is on the record saying Saints will not trade #12 for Butler.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/19030663/new-orleans-saints-sign-malcolm-butler-offer-sheet

Which means Butler pretty much has to sign the tender, or maybe take a year away from football to work on his autobiographical movie. But yeah, probably football.

I don't know that, say, #32 and a 2018 2nd from the Saints is enough for the Pats to forgo an affordable year of Butler (and, likely, a 2019 3rd round compensation pick). I think he stays, possibly grumpily.
The Pats could toll the contract forward if Butler refuses to sign his tender, which means we get to repeat all this over again next offseason.
 

ZMart100

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Predictions: Garoppolo is gone to CLE the day before the draft. I don't know what the compensation will be, the Browns are free to bid against themselves until that time. Butler stays and is not a Patriot in 2018. Whether he plays the season out or gets traded mid-season, I don't think he returns given his age. The franchise tag is unused next offseason.
 

Pandemonium67

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With this draft very deep in CBs, the Pats will trade Butler for a 2nd and 3rd. They'll use the 2 to draft a CB, and trade the 3 for a 2 in 2018, and then for a 1 in 2019.

JG will stay.
 

Stitch01

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The Pats could toll the contract forward if Butler refuses to sign his tender, which means we get to repeat all this over again next offseason.
I dont think thats totally accurate. They can rescind the tender and pay him less (was 110% of last years salary when they did this with Mankins), but the contract only tolls if he doesnt show up for six games.

The downside of reducing the tender offer is it makes it easier for Butler to hold out for 10 games.
 

H78

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Wanted to bump this now that everything, seemingly, comes to a head tonight.

I believe I voted Jimmy stays and Butler goes, but now I'm firmly in the "both stay" (for now, through tonight) camp. I don't think the Pats would play Schef this much as it pertains to Jimmy, and I while I don't think Butler gets traded at all, I think that if he does it'll be after the draft, possibly for Sherman or for picks next year.

This may be your last chance to post a prediction before one (or both) of these guys are possibly gone tonight!
 

H78

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The choice you voted for is bolded, so you should find it easily.
I know, but it's not showing from my MacBook, though I'm almost positive I voted. If I didn't, that's what I would have voted for months ago, which isn't really the point of the bump anyways. :)
 

BigSoxFan

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I would be pretty shocked if Jimmy were traded and mildly surprised if Butler were traded.
 

E5 Yaz

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I know, but it's not showing from my MacBook, though I'm almost positive I voted. If I didn't, that's what I would have voted for months ago, which isn't really the point of the bump anyways. :)
Vote again. I had closed the poll heading into the owners meetings, thinking something would happen then. Open again