NY roster 2017

jon abbey

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YES had their first offseason show tonight, I will watch it later but reportedly Hal Steinbrenner said that they expect to have two rotation spots open in spring training, just as I detailed in the post quoted below. I am both very happy that they are going this route (at least for now) and proud of myself for saying this when none of the beat writers were.

So I'm reading a lot of pieces about what NY needs to do in the offseason, and the one area I think they're all wrong in is that NY absolutely should not give up resources to trade for a SP. Their rotation right now is Tanaka, Sabathia, Pineda and two spots up for grabs. They have a ton of possibilities for those two spots, and I'm not even counting Severino (I think he ends up as a shutdown multi-inning bullpen guy):

Cessa
Green
Mitchell
Montgomery
Chance Adams

Whichever two of those five impress the most in spring training get the rotation spots, the other three go to AAA to wait. Meanwhile if Severino goes to the bullpen and NY can sign one of the three stud closers (Chapman, Jansen, Melancon), they quietly have a stacked bullpen again:

Clippard
Warren
Severino
Betances
Chapman/Jansen/Melancon

They need a second lefty, maybe Enns can beat out Shreve and Pazos. Signing a veteran SP is OK, but it needs to be a AAAA type who can go to Scranton and wait for an emergency. As far as SPs, besides the eight listed above, Kaprielian, Sheffield and Acevedo are not that far away, one or more could be ready by next summer.
 

jon abbey

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Probably, and Warren also. They really have a lot of options in the high minors, my above post was made before they traded for Abreu and Littell too.
 

jon abbey

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OK, with the Holliday signing, let's update where NY stands for 2017:

============================================

C: Sanchez, Romine (Higashioka in AAA)

1B: Bird, Austin

2B: Castro (Refsnyder in AAA)

SS: Didi

3B: Headley (Andujar in AAA)

UI: Torreyes

OF: Gardner/Ellsbury/Judge, Hicks as 4th OF (Mason Williams and Fowler in AAA)

DH: Holliday

P: Tanaka, Pineda, CC, 2 spots open and likely to be filled internally

RP: Severino, Warren, Clippard, Betances, 3 spots open (more if Severino and/or Warren ends up as a SP)
 

jon abbey

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So far this offseason NY has replaced McCann with Holliday and added Chapman to the back of the pen again, plus a few more prospects to the stockpile including a borderline top 100 guy in Abreu. Latest roster update:

============================================

C: Sanchez, Romine (Higashioka in AAA)

1B: Bird, Austin

2B: Castro (Refsnyder in AAA)

SS: Didi

3B: Headley (Andujar in AAA)

UI: Torreyes

OF: Gardner/Ellsbury/Judge, Hicks as 4th OF (Mason Williams and Fowler in AAA)

DH: Holliday

P: Tanaka, Pineda, CC, 2 spots open and likely to be filled internally

RP: Severino, Warren, Clippard, Betances, Chapman, 2 spots open (more if Severino and/or Warren ends up as a SP)
 

jon abbey

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Tanaka officially announced today he won't be pitching in the WBC, so that is good news.
 

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Am I the only one who forgot Matt Holliday plays for the Yankees now? I saw some story about him roll by on my Twitter feed and did a double take. I need baseball to hurry up and get here.
 

jon abbey

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Update with Chris Carter seemingly bumping Tyler Austin:

============================================

C: Sanchez, Romine (Higashioka in AAA)

1B: Bird, Carter (Austin in AAA)

2B: Castro (Refsnyder in AAA)

SS: Didi

3B: Headley (Andujar in AAA)

UI: Torreyes

OF: Gardner/Ellsbury/Judge, Hicks as 4th OF (Mason Williams and Fowler in AAA)

DH: Holliday

P: Tanaka, Pineda, CC, 2 spots open and likely to be filled internally

RP: Warren, Clippard, Betances, Chapman, 3 spots open (4 if Warren ends up as a SP)
 

jon abbey

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I wasn't quite sure where to put this, but this is pretty fascinating and something I did not know before today. Of course it's a relatively SSS, but Tanaka is a pretty unique pitcher so I put more stock in these numbers than I would a more conventional pitcher with a smaller repertoire:

==============================================

Masahiro Tanaka will make his first start of the spring Tuesday and unlike some of his teammates, doesn’t figure to have much of an adjustment following the departure of Brian McCann, who was traded to Houston in the offseason.

Tanaka had significantly better numbers with Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine behind the plate than with McCann.

“I’m on the same page as Sanchez and Romine from last season,” Tanaka said through a translator.

In 15 starts pitching to McCann last season, Tanaka had a 4.17 ERA. He had a 1.94 ERA in seven starts with Sanchez catching and a 2.16 ERA in nine outings with Romine.

http://nypost.com/2017/02/27/yankees-rotation-options-an-embarrassment-of-riches-so-far/
 

jon abbey

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Not much talk about the final bullpen spot but I think there will be one open after the 4/5 starter competition shakes out:

???
2 of Warren/Mitchell/Cessa/Green/Severino
Layne
Clippard
Betances
Chapman

Barbato and Heller both look good so far, Barbato is trying to add a splitter. Niese I think is better stretched out in AAA as an emergency rotation guy, plenty of other options but I'd say Barbato or Heller in the lead currently.
 

jon abbey

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NY opens the season in 11 days, a week from Sunday, and still have a ton of roles up in the air:

=============================

C: Sanchez, Romine (Higashioka in AAA)

1B: Bird, Carter (Austin on DL)

2B: Castro (Refsnyder in AAA)

SS: ???? (Wade in AAA) (Didi on DL)

3B: Headley (Andujar in AAA)

UI: Torreyes

OF: Gardner/Ellsbury/Judge (Hicks as 4th OF) (Mason Williams, Fowler, Frazier, McKinney in AAA)

DH: Holliday

P: Tanaka, Pineda, CC, ????, ??? (Niese, Montgomery, Adams in AAA)

RP: ???, ???, ???, Layne, Clippard, Betances, Chapman

=============================

So:

Starting SS: this opened up with the Didi injury this week, my guess is Tyler Wade with Castro staying at 2B and Torreyes staying as UI, but they could go a bunch of ways.

Starting RF: Hicks and Judge have performed similarly so far, although Judge has had a bunch of deep flies to RF that would be out in the Bronx), possibly 4th OF if Hicks is the starting RF and then Judge goes back to AAA. It really should be Judge, especially because they don't have an obvious 4th OF candidate if it's not Hicks.

4th/5th SP and last three bullpen spots: Very little has been resolved here, although Cessa being limited to two inning stints still make it look like he is out of the SP competition. Severino still doesn't look ready, I would currently go with Mitchell and Green to the rotation, Cessa and Warren to the bullpen (along with Heller as the 7th guy) and send Severino to the AAA rotation to try to get him back in a groove. Also NY has said they plan to skip the 5th guy a bunch early on, that would be better with Green than Severino.
 

jon abbey

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I think non-40 man candidates to make the roster (Wade, Montgomery, Frieri) are basically competing for one spot because Tyler Austin to the 60 day DL seems like the only easy move. After that you get to guys like Barbato, Refsnyder, Shreve, and I think Cashman would prefer to not lose any of those guys for nothing if he can avoid it.

So Frieri isn't going to make the team, he's not an obvious improvement over Heller or Holder or even Gallegos so definitely not worth the 40 man spot.

Wade and Montgomery would both make the team if there were no 40 man considerations. Montgomery I think still has a very good shot (getting another start this week), Wade's problem isn't clearing the initial spot for him as much as it is that once Didi is back, Wade clogs the 40 man and makes it harder for Torres to come up this season, if he goes nuts in the minors. So maybe Ruben Tejada or Pete Kozma who then get DFAd once Didi is back?

Starting RF: Still not announced, but it kind of has to be Judge because if it's Hicks, the 4th OF candidates are Mason Williams or Rob Refsnyder and Judge would go back to AAA. I think it will be Judge and Hicks will fill in at all three OF positions and play at least 4 times a week if he is hitting (as he did late last season and this spring).

4th/5th SP and last three bullpen spots: Cessa sent down and Niese released since I last posted, my current guess is Montgomery as 4th guy and Mitchell as 5th guy and in the pen until he is needed on the 16th. Warren to the bullpen along with Heller and Holder, Frieri/Gallegos/Barbato/Shreve as AAA relief options and a AAA rotation of Severino/Cessa/Green/Adams/Enns. If Severino looks dominant, he can come up quickly but he wasn't even anything special in AAA last year, with worse numbers than Montgomery, Green, Enns (all of whom were dominant) and Cessa for Scranton, and he got totally shelled pretty much every start in the bigs.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/team.cgi?id=d5dde62f
 

wallypip

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I don't think they will consider Tejada for a short term role because he is guaranteed $1.3M if he makes the majors. There's no reason to pay 2017 Ruben Tejada that for a few weeks of play.
 

jon abbey

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And you are correct, he was reassigned to minor league camp today, Donovan Solano too.

So the only possible candidates left are Kozma, Wade and Refsnyder, I think it will be Kozma but I would much rather watch Wade.
 

jon abbey

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News today via RAB that NY plans to stretch out Johnny Barbato in the AAA rotation, so he's not in danger of losing his 40 man spot.
 

jon abbey

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Girardi confirms that Adam Warren will be in the bullpen, not the rotation.

So down to Severino, Montgomery, Mitchell and Green, two to the rotation (although they may only announce one this week and wait until they need a fifth starter to announce the other).
 

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Why don't they just admit the bullpen is more important because only one of the starters can be trusted to go 6 innings.
 

jon abbey

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Severino and Montgomery each get starts the next two days (not today), that should decide it.
 

jon abbey

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This cuts it to 31, six more cuts needed by Sunday. Refsnyder, Shreve, Graham are all obvious (and the first two likely trade candidates to free up 40 man spots), not sure how Graham has made it this long.

Bryan Hoch‏Verified account @BryanHoch 2h2 hours ago
The Yankees haven't announced any moves, but Kyle Higashioka and Ernesto Frieri were called into Girardi's office before clubhouse closed.
 

jon abbey

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Bryan Hoch says that it looks like Kozma has made the team (Torreyes will be the primary starter) and also Girardi says NY will go with 8 relievers to start the season and not name a 5th starter until they need to on 4/16.
 

jon abbey

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Severino named the 4th starter, Refsnyder sent down. They still haven't officially announced the Judge/Hicks RF thing, both are starting again today (Hicks in LF, Judge in RF).
 

wallypip

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That basically ensures that Judge will be on the big league club as either a starter or a 3-5 day a week player. I'd be shocked if he isn't named the starting RF today.
 

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Notes on ESPN that the organization still considers Severino a top of the rotation starter. I'd be surprised if Severino holds down the 4th spot with solid production all year, nevermind top of the rotation.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, I agree, but it doesn't really hurt to give him a shot at the start of the year. I can't believe Shreve made the bullpen over Heller just because he's lefty, I had him as the next 40 man cut. He should go down when NY needs a 5th starter, but still.

So this looks like the Opening Day roster:

=============================

C: Sanchez, Romine (Higashioka in AAA)

1B: Bird, Carter (Austin on DL)

2B: Castro (Refsnyder in AAA)

SS: Torreyes (Wade in AAA) (Didi on DL)

3B: Headley (Andujar in AAA)

UI: Kozma

OF: Gardner/Ellsbury/Judge (Hicks as 4th OF) (Mason Williams, Fowler, Frazier, McKinney in AAA)

DH: Holliday

P: Tanaka, Pineda, CC, Severino (Montgomery, Green, Cessa, Adams, Barbato in AAA)

RP: Shreve, Holder, Mitchell, Warren, Layne, Clippard, Betances, Chapman (Heller, Gallegos in AAA)

=============================
 

jon abbey

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Also Severino is still very young, just turned 23. He's only about six months older than Lucas Giolito, as one random example I looked up. I would have put him in AAA to start the season, but NY needs long-term rotation guys, so they are giving him another shot.
 

jon abbey

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"Yankees to put C Gary Sanchez on 10-Day DL with right bicep strain. C Kyle Higashioka will join club in Baltimore."

Sox fans will not believe me but I am kind of psyched for this as long as it is nothing long-term. Higashioka is already on the 40 man, he turns 27 this month, and he dominated AA and AAA last year. I'd play them in maybe a 4/3 Higashioka/Romine balance until Sanchez is back, Higashioka could turn into a very good backup or a great trade chip quickly if he keeps up what he did last year (.847 OPS in two pitchers' parks and solid D). He hit cleanup for Scranton in their opener today, I'm excited to see him, hopefully Girardi uses him enough.

http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/2017/02/yankees_kyle_higashioka_10_things_to_know_about_ca.html
 

jon abbey

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Exciting news that Jordan Montgomery has won the fifth starter spot and will be going on Wednesday. I am guessing they realized that the 5th spot was lined up to pitch the nationally televised ESPN game on Easter Sunday, and decided to move it to a less high profile spot, enough to worry about in a normal game.

Congrats Jordan! The youth movement continues, I wonder who the 40 man move will be because there is no obvious candidate.
 

jon abbey

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Shreve sent to AAA, so that is the 25 man move, the 40 man move still to come.
 

jon abbey

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Yes, sent down after the game to make room for Montgomery in their next one.
 

jon abbey

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Barbato is DFAd to make a 40 man spot for Montgomery, NY is officially out of easy 40 man spots at least until Didi is back and they can cut Kozma.
 

jon abbey

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Gardner is day-to-day for now with a 'bruised jaw and a neck strain', yikes. Inexplicably they are not even testing him for a concussion, not that I am an expert, but here was the collision with the large Rickie Weeks whose head hit Gardner's chin, this might get flagged for targetting in a college football game:


Mason Williams is presumably up next if any of the OFs go down, Frazier and Fowler have not done enough yet to jump him, and also he is on the 40 man and they are not, and they really have no room there unless someone else goes on the 60 day DL, until Didi is back and they can DFA Kozma.
 

jon abbey

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Also Girardi said that Romine is the starter for now over Higashioka, that will be one to keep an eye on.
 

jon abbey

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Kozma was DFAd on Friday when Didi was activated, today the Rangers picked him up, so no more Kozma in the Bronx, yay.
 

jon abbey

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It was a strange move that mostly backfired in the end but part of it was that with Chapman on the mound (a lefty strikeout pitcher), Girardi said he didn't expect Mitchell to have to field grounders, and that part of his calculations was right.

My favorite part was when they asked Girardi if Mitchell had played 1B before (he hadn't, he played some RF in high school) and he said "I don't know, I didn't ask." HA!
 

jon abbey

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Mitchell down to AAA for a fresh arm in Cessa, who is on full rest.
 

jon abbey

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Aroldis Chapman onto the DL with shoulder inflammation, he's already had a MRI that showed nothing. He'll be shut down for two weeks and then reevaluated, Cashman is expecting him to miss a month.

Chad Green up for now, he could be really good as a late game reliever if given that chance.
 

jon abbey

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Tyler Austin starting rehab games in high A Tampa tonight, which means Chris Carter had better wake up soon or he may be history.
 

jon abbey

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They switched Austin to AA Trenton because of better weather this week, and he has a 1.448 OPS in four partial games so far. He hit two triples today so he is certainly running OK.
 

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Yankees moves: Adam Warren on DL (right shoulder inflammation); Giovanny Gallegos to Triple-A; Kyle Higashioka & Mason Williams called up.
 

jon abbey

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The new guys are because Sanchez and Hicks are both day-to-day and NY doesn't want to put them on the DL, at least yet. Chapman will be back Sunday, that is at least one more move this weekend.