2017 NFL Draft: Potential Patriots

j44thor · Feb 27, 2017

Solid analysis, might be helpful to add the projected draft round/spot for each prospect you highlighted.
I don't think OJ Howard or TJ Watt are expected to last until pick 32 so it would likely require a trade up or Jimmy G trade.

ZMart100 · Feb 28, 2017

First, I like this topic, but I don't usually start really paying attention to prospects until we start getting measurements (it helps a lot to narrow the field). However, my cable is out so I'll look at a few people you listed.

Watt and McDowell look undersized for the Pats. Watt makes up for that with long arms and good technique to stack and shed. I think he would be a good fit. McDowell is probably a better fit in other systems (Tampa 2).

Bolles is pretty good. I really like his feet, but he can lose concentration with his technique. He's pretty old (24), which is a red flag. I think he is going to be pretty risky for how high he will likely go in the draft. I doubt the Pats are the high team on him.

Greekca said:
Samaje Perine - RB - Oklahoma
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 235

I like what I've seen of him. I love his running style. I don't think he has the burst of Turner. I haven't seen much of him in pass pro (not unusual for a college RB) and I wish I could see how he did in ST. He looks like he's in the 3-6 round pick range depending on how well he tests.

Greekca said:
Obi Melifonwu - S - Connecticut
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 219

I don't know quite what to make of him. He's really inconsistent, sometimes he looks really bad (v Houston) sometimes he looks pretty good (v UVA). I don't think he's particularly instinctive. He takes on blocks to high and can have trouble fighting through the garbage. I saw him mostly in zone, so I don't have a good feel for his man coverage abilities (his competition wasn't that great anyways). I don't see enough to justify the 2nd round grade he has from both ESPN and CBS.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Feb 28, 2017

Great thread.

I think he's likely a second or maybe even third rounder but one guy I see being a very good fit, and the Pats being higher on than most clubs, is Desmond King, the CB from Iowa. He has a lot of Logan Ryan to him - good size and very good ball skills, fairly scheme versatile (and played for Kirk Ferentz, part of the BB coaching network), subpar straight line speed and not an elite athlete. The Pats have shown in the past that they value straight line speed at the CB position less than most other teams and see value opportunities in guys that fit this kind of profile. He also returned punts (and kickoffs) for Iowa, which has got to be a plus going into next year, given Dola might not make the team and who knows what we get out of Cyrus the Great in that respect.

I think OJ Howard would be a very typical BB pick in the first round but I doubt he lasts until 32. He checks many of the typical boxes for a BB first rounder - versatile player (blocking, receiving, ability to line up in different spots), very high floor, solid character, faced very good competition. To me, he is one of the safest bets in the draft to be an above average NFL starter. I would consider taking him with 12 if the Browns traded it to us.

ZMart100 · Feb 28, 2017

Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
I think he's likely a second or maybe even third rounder but one guy I see being a very good fit, and the Pats being higher on than most clubs, is Desmond King, the CB from Iowa. He has a lot of Logan Ryan to him - good size and very good ball skills, fairly scheme versatile (and played for Kirk Ferentz, part of the BB coaching network), subpar straight line speed and not an elite athlete. The Pats have shown in the past that they value straight line speed at the CB position less than most other teams and see value opportunities in guys that fit this kind of profile. He also returned punts (and kickoffs) for Iowa, which has got to be a plus going into next year, given Dola might not make the team and who knows what we get out of Cyrus the Great in that respect.

He can definitely pick up the slack if Jones is hurt.

Seriously though, I like him a lot. He's good in coverage and has a smooth transition out of the backpedal. He does a really good job of not biting on stutter steps and double moves. He's better playing off the line than in press, where he lacks the punch to disrupt his opponent's route. That Iowa front had a really good pass rush, so I didn't see him get tested deep much. Not the best in run support, though he appears willing. He does do a good job taking on blocks and creating contain to turn the runner back inside, which is a good sign for his football IQ. He's a decent returner, but not great.

MarkBT · Feb 28, 2017

Curtis Samuel is an interesting prospect, and particularly interesting for the Patriots.

This season, he was much more effective as a slot receiver than as a back coming out of the backfield on zone-reads or in the flat. At times this year, I saw a little of Julian Edelman with Samuel. He was the primary target for Barrett (in what turned out to be a very underwhelming offense during conference play), and made tough catches in traffic and on third down. Yet, he had some inexplicable drops as well.

He is a very dynamic runner with the ball in the open field, whether that's YAC, or on plays out the back field. OSU like to run jet sweeps with Samuel often getting to the edge.

I wouldn't start looking at Samuel until the end of the 2nd/early 3rd round, but he could be a nice pick if the Pats feel that Amendola is going to walk

Super Nomario · Feb 28, 2017

Greekca said:
Samaje Perine - RB - Oklahoma

Perine is a guy that makes sense to me, at least on paper.

Greekca said:
Quincy Wilson - CB - Florida
Why Patriots would like him?: As with RB, the Patriots seem to have a few characteristics they look for in the CB position that never waver. Of course, I am referring to short area quickness and tackling/willing to support in the run game. Wilson has a TBD on short area quickness until the combine, but he has shown a willingness to tackle and mix it up in the run game. He is much more solidly built than your average CB, so will be very interesting to see how he does in the 3-cone and shuttle drills. Kind of sleeper in that his teammate Tabor received much more of the hype heading into the season. Does need some media coaching though as he foolishly guaranteed a win over Tennessee in a game they ended up losing.

I don't think he's a Pats-type CB pick. I was not a fan of his tackling / run defense and he strikes me more as a length / Seattle type CB than a change of direction / Pats type CB.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Great thread.

I think he's likely a second or maybe even third rounder but one guy I see being a very good fit, and the Pats being higher on than most clubs, is Desmond King, the CB from Iowa. He has a lot of Logan Ryan to him - good size and very good ball skills, fairly scheme versatile (and played for Kirk Ferentz, part of the BB coaching network), subpar straight line speed and not an elite athlete. The Pats have shown in the past that they value straight line speed at the CB position less than most other teams and see value opportunities in guys that fit this kind of profile. He also returned punts (and kickoffs) for Iowa, which has got to be a plus going into next year, given Dola might not make the team and who knows what we get out of Cyrus the Great in that respect.

King does not have good size. He's 5'10" and he measured with sub-30" arms at the Senior Bowl, which puts him in the fifth-percentile (or thereabouts) for arm length. He is like Ryan in that he plays bigger than his size, but there's a significant difference between being average-sized and playing like you're kind of big (as Ryan does) and being tiny and playing like you're average-sized. King is a really good tackler / run defender though. I could see him fitting. It's hard to know - there are so many variables with corner for the Pats between Butler and Ryan's contract status and Coleman and the Joneses basically being unknowns as defenders.

Saints Rest · Feb 28, 2017

Were any of these guys team captains? Did any of them have any press about their "love of the game?" Those are two intangibles that get a lot of talk when reviewing BB picks.
Also versatility. The Mayock profile on mmqb that I read was pretty high on Obi's versatility (as well as a couple other guys whose names I forget at the moment). How about Christian McCaffrey? He seems to have the pass-catching abilities of Lewis and White while having more upside as a lead back than either of them

Super Nomario · Feb 28, 2017

Greekca said:
I would agree that much of the defensive backfield is in flux outside of the two starting safeties. Who knows what may happen with Butler and the failure of Jones and Richards have really screwed with the planned passing of the torch in the backfield. Funny how much Richards has been forgotten. People seem to forget he was drafted with the 64th pick in 2015 and Jones was the 60th pick in 2016. Richards just benefits because he wasn't the top draft pick his year. The guy played only 18 defensive snaps last year and only 151 on special teams. He was Nate Ebner on defense and played only half as many snaps as Ebner on special teams. Guy had 3 tackles all season (same as the long snapper and 1 more than Marcus Cannon). Unless he was crushing it in practice but couldn't make it on the field because of numbers, that seems like back to back pretty atrocious results from your second round picks. If Harmon isn't resigned, I would look for safety to be addressed either in the draft or FA.

I think we'll see safety with or without Harmon. Chung and McCourty are both turning 30 this summer. Even if they bring Harmon back and even if Richards isn't useless, they still could stand to draft a guy. The Pats are pretty tough to predict when it comes to safeties, though - Tavon Wilson, Harmon, and Richards were all out-of-left-field types.

JokersWildJIMED · Feb 28, 2017

Super Nomario said:
I think we'll see safety with or without Harmon. Chung and McCourty are both turning 30 this summer. Even if they bring Harmon back and even if Richards isn't useless, they still could stand to draft a guy. The Pats are pretty tough to predict when it comes to safeties, though - Tavon Wilson, Harmon, and Richards were all out-of-left-field types.

Harmon is not coming back...he may be the best safety in free agency.

SMU_Sox · Feb 28, 2017

Inside the Pylon had something to say about Quincy Wilson today on their weekday daily NFL Draft podcast. He did not get a good review.

ZMart100 · Mar 6, 2017

Here are my first impressions of the combine so far from the Patriots perspective. These are mostly just notes, so I apologize for any readability problems.

First the WR, there are maybe 6 guys who I think could be fits for the Pats that would play outside. Zay Jones is the best and most complete of the group. I think he will be gone by 32, however. The rest of the group each have problems, for most of them it is that they aren't great route runners. Some other players to look at are (in no particular order) Jehu Chesson, Chad Hansen, Jalen Robinette, Cooper Kupp and Ryan Switzer. I think Kupp is probably the second best player here. Slot receiver is pretty thin. There are no good conversion candidates from RB, other than McCaffrey, but his best value is probably in the backfield and he will likely be gone by 32. There are few players who come close to having the quickness that we have come accustomed to seeing in that position recently. The best approximation is listed below.

There are few standouts in the OL group that I have seen, but there are a bunch of small school guys it is hard to really take a look at. I have put my favorite value pick below.

I haven't finished working through RB, DL or LB yet, and will save most of my thoughts on those positions for later, except for the one player below.

Trent Taylor - WR - LA Tech
Productive, over 1,800 yards as a senior. He runs good routes and is elusive in the open field. Very quick changing direction when he sinks his hips. He is competitive in traffic and willing to work over the middle. I haven't seen him block much, so that part is incomplete. 4.01 short shuttle and 6.74 3 cone at the combine. His 8 1/4 inch hands are a concern for catching ability and ball security. Projected 5th round at CBS and 6/7th at ESPN. I could see him in the 5/6th area.
Video from 2015 vs Miss State

Jordan Willis - LB - Kansas State
Very good measureables. 6'4, 255 lbs, 33 1/2 arms ran a 4.53 40 with 39 inch vertical, 125 inch broad jump, 6.85 3 cone and 4.28 short shuttle. Compare to Jamie Collins 6'4 250 lbs, 33 5/8 arms ran a 4.64 40 with 41 1/2 inch vertical, 139 inch broad jump, 7.10 3 cone and 4.32 short shuttle. Does a good job taking on blocks and shedding to make tackles. Also does a good job staying home and keeping contain. Pass rush skills could use improvement. He does a good job getting his arms in the passing lanes. He spent most of his time going up against RTs, so how many players did he see that will play on Sundays? How will he do standing up and in coverage? CBS projects him at 3-4th round, ESPN has him as a 4th round player. He looks like a 2/3 round player to me, but more of a pick based on his athleticism vs his current skills.
Video from 2016 vs Stanford

Ben Braden - OL - Michigan
Plays with a bit of a nasty streak. Has the athleticism to pull and work to the second level off double teams. He's better as a run blocker than a pass blocker. He doesn't deliver a powerful initial blow in pass pro and often leans forward to far. His footwork gives him trouble when dropping in pass pro, but looks mostly correctable. He measured well at the combine at 6'6 and 329 lbs with 34 inch arms and showed good athleticism for his size. CBS has him as a 7th rounder ESPN has him as an UDFA. I'd be comfortable with him in the 5th round, I think he can play both inside and outside on the line.
Braden as (mostly) LT vs Ohio State
Braden as LG vs Penn State

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Mar 6, 2017

I think both Jordan Willis and TJ Watt, who both crushed the combine, go somewhere between the mid second and late first. I could see the Pats taking long looks at both of them with 32 but I doubt either is around at 64. Teams place too much value on measurables and quick twitch athletics in rushers for those two guys to fall that much.

PaulinMyrBch · Mar 6, 2017

If we lost Blount,a straight ahead power runner for short yardage situations could be a guy like Elijah Hood. He's a strong runner, good with contact. Not much for bouncing or improvising, but he can pound and he can pass protect. I don't expect his pro day 40 time to be elite, so I bet he slips into the late rounds.

Elijah Hood

j44thor · Mar 6, 2017

If NE can acquire a mid first for Jimmy G, OJ Howard seems like a natural fit.
Blazed a 4.51 40 and 6.85 3 cone at 6'5" 251 lbs and his blocking is supposed to be a strength. Certainly won't be there at 32 would probably take the CLE 12 to guarantee he is there. That is a bit high for a TE but he has Gronk like upside without the injury concerns.

bsj · Mar 6, 2017

What are we thinking about Ryan Anderson? Bill loves Bama guys, and Anderson very likely will be there at 32. he seems like a guy who can step in and play on day one, and fills a badly needed hole at edge rusher.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Mar 6, 2017

Super Nomario said:
King does not have good size. He's 5'10" and he measured with sub-30" arms at the Senior Bowl, which puts him in the fifth-percentile (or thereabouts) for arm length. He is like Ryan in that he plays bigger than his size, but there's a significant difference between being average-sized and playing like you're kind of big (as Ryan does) and being tiny and playing like you're average-sized. King is a really good tackler / run defender though. I could see him fitting. It's hard to know - there are so many variables with corner for the Pats between Butler and Ryan's contract status and Coleman and the Joneses basically being unknowns as defenders.

Minor followup note: King's arms measured 31"1/8 at the Combine, which is still a bit on the shorter side but much more within the normal range for a CB. Something weird seems to have occurred with the Senior bowl tape because a lot of guys have ended up with significantly longer Combine arm measurements.

heavyde050 · Mar 6, 2017

Obi Melifonwu just crushed the combine. I would be amazed if he was still on the board at 32.

ZMart100 · Mar 6, 2017

bsj said:
What are we thinking about Ryan Anderson? Bill loves Bama guys, and Anderson very likely will be there at 32. he seems like a guy who can step in and play on day one, and fills a badly needed hole at edge rusher.

I don't see him as an outside player in the Pats system, more of an ILB. He's pretty good against the run there, he does an excellent job stacking and shedding blockers to make the tackle and has good instincts. Is he a 3 down LB? I'm not convinced, he looks like a huge liability in coverage. I think it's hard to use a first round pick on a 2 down player.

Saints Rest · Mar 6, 2017

heavyde050 said:
Obi Melifonwu just crushed the combine. I would be amazed if he was still on the board at 32.

I doubt he makes it past Seattle at #26, and possibly not past NO or CLE at 11 and 12.

Cellar-Door · Mar 6, 2017

One thing on Melifonwu, he skipped the agility drills (3 cone) which is what a lot of people wanted to see. He runs fast and jumps high, but there's concern about his agility.

The guy I think helped himself more today was Kevin King out of UW.
6'3"
200 lb
4.43 40
39.5 vertical
6.56 three cone
3.89 short shuttle.

The 3 cone and SS were both best among DBs.

Clears Cleaver · Mar 6, 2017

I watched Obi play at Uconn. Not an instinctive player. And, while not relevant directly, Navy targeted him repeatedly in their option forcing him to make decisions and he struggled mightily. He made plenty of plays but not sure he's as good a player as he is an athlete

Jimbodandy · Mar 7, 2017

Clears Cleaver said:
I watched Obi play at Uconn. Not an instinctive player. And, while not relevant directly, Navy targeted him repeatedly in their option forcing him to make decisions and he struggled mightily. He made plenty of plays but not sure he's as good a player as he is an athlete

6'4" with a 44" vert. Maybe Ainge should be looking at him this summer.

Super Nomario · Mar 7, 2017

Greekca said:
Despite Obi's performance today, I still see him as a late first - second round guy. Elite size and measurables, but given his tape, level of competition, deep DB class, and safety position I see him going lower than Byron Jones who went #27 in 2015. Very good year to be looking for DB help. Should have some impact on the free agent market.

I'm not sure being a safety makes Melifonwu go later (did anyone have Joseph and Neal going in the top 17 last year)? And Jones' early success helps Melifonwu in terms of the "level of competition" concerns. And Melifonwu has a big edge over Jones in terms of health. Jones didn't have a lot of tape from his senior year because he missed half the season with a shoulder injury. Melifonwu has been pretty healthy.

Greekca said:
Byron Jones
40 Time: 4.36

I don't know where you're getting this 40 time, but Jones didn't run at the Combine and nfldraftscout has him with a 4.43 at his Pro Day.

Clears Cleaver said:
I watched Obi play at Uconn. Not an instinctive player. And, while not relevant directly, Navy targeted him repeatedly in their option forcing him to make decisions and he struggled mightily. He made plenty of plays but not sure he's as good a player as he is an athlete

I don't think you're wrong, but I also see this as stuff that's pretty common for college safeties, even top prospects. Go through Malik Hooker's tape and you'll see him making slow reads, getting fooled by misdirection, taking poor angles, etc. (and also making some amazing plays). Karl Joseph had some of the same issues.

Super Nomario · Mar 7, 2017

Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Minor followup note: King's arms measured 31"1/8 at the Combine, which is still a bit on the shorter side but much more within the normal range for a CB. Something weird seems to have occurred with the Senior bowl tape because a lot of guys have ended up with significantly longer Combine arm measurements.

And on cue, King runs a 6.67 3-cone; really his only good drill but the third-best time among defensive backs and right in line with guys like Coleman (6.61), Ryan (6.69), and Jones (6.71). I do think he fits the Patriots, but on paper they already kind of have what King offers in Cyrus Jones: a quick guy without ideal height who can tackle and showed some press and return skills.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Mar 7, 2017

Super Nomario said:
And on cue, King runs a 6.67 3-cone; really his only good drill but the third-best time among defensive backs and right in line with guys like Coleman (6.61), Ryan (6.69), and Jones (6.71). I do think he fits the Patriots, but on paper they already kind of have what King offers in Cyrus Jones: a quick guy without ideal height who can tackle and showed some press and return skills.

I think that's right. King seems to check a lot of typical Patriots boxes but they might be better off diversifying their CB group with a longer and/or faster guy.

ZMart100 · Mar 8, 2017

DL seems small this year. It's not clear to me if this is just what's available from colleges this year or reflects the preferences of the people doing the invites. Pro days should answer this question. There are a number of mid to late round candidates for an OLB conversion with borderline athleticism for the position.

Montravious Adams - DE - Auburn
Very quick off the ball. He can play too high at times, particularly when taking on double teams. When he keeps leverage, he does a good job shedding blocks to make the tackle. Flashes the ability to use his hands well, but is inconsistent. While he's probably a better fit at DE in 3 man fronts, he has the versatility to rotate as under tackle in 4 man fronts. 2-3rd round on CBS, 3rd round on ESPN. I like him in the late 2nd round/early 3rd round.
2016 vs Alabama

D.J. Jones - NT - Ole Miss
Average to slightly below quickness off the snap. Athletic for his size. Does a good job anchoring against double teams. Plays with good pad level. Not much of a pass rusher and doesn't have the height or length to disrupt passing lanes. A good 2 down rotation player. 7-UDFA on CBS, UDFA on ESPN. I like him in the 6th round.
2016 vs Auburn

Howard Wilson - CB - Houston
Young and inexperienced (redshirt sophmore). Played a lot of off coverage, but appears to open his hips smoothly. Drives on the ball well. Willing tackler. 3-4th round on CBS, 4th round on ESPN. 3-4th round makes sense to me for someone with his athleticism and youth who lacks refinement.
2016 vs Cincinnati

Chuck Clark - S - Virginia Tech
Experience playing both safety and corner, but much better at S. A little undersized. Good, aggressive tackler, however he sometimes overpursues. Not great in man to man, has trouble getting his head around, but has the athleticism to stay with receivers. Played a lot of ST first 3 years. CBS and ESPN both have him as UDFA. I like him in the 6th round, he should at least provide ST value and could become a useful safety.
2016 vs Notre Dame #19 - side note #6, Mook Reynolds, is fun to watch

I'm on to pro days.

2017 NFL Draft: Potential Patriots

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

New Member

Member

Well-Known Member

Member

Member

Member

Blinded by Borges

Member

queer eye for the next pats guy

Member

Member

Don't touch his dog food

Member

Renegade Crazed Genius

Member

Member

Member

Well-Known Member

Member

Member

Lil' Bill

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member