2017 Jimmy G: The Dilemma
- Thread starter bakahump
- Start date
Brees was also coming off a serious shoulder injury, which would help explain why he wasn't more sought after.
I can't imagine the pain Dolphins fans have over this. It'd drive me nuts. Instead they got Dante Cullpepper.
While I think the Chargers got a lesser quarterback they made the right call due to Brees injury and still ended up with a solid QB.
Worse, they almost had Brees AND Saban.
Edit: My guess is he stays, but my pick for most likely destination is Houston. They have an urgent need for a guy who can play now but it would be hard to add a veteran cap-wise.
On NFLN's a Football Life, Brett Favre, they pointed out that all Jerry Glanville did with Brett in Atlanta is take bets on whether he could throw the ball into the second deck of the stadium. He goes to Green Bay, returns them to excellence, while Atlanta sends out Chris Miller, Bobby Hebert and Jeff George at
quarterback. Nice work there, Atlanta.
Neither. As inept as they are, the Niners won't trade the 2nd overall pick for a QB with two career starts who will get expensive next year, or for a QB who is expensive now and isn't on the level of Brady/Rodgers/Ryan. If the Niners aren't enamored of the options at #2, they'll trade down and collect picks; heaven knows they need help just about everywhere.
You mean there's that option too? I was just pointing out that the deal for Cousins didn't make sense when you can get a younger, cheaper guy for less. Whether that's #2 or their 2nd this year and a 1st or 2nd next year, that makes a lot more sense to me than trading #2 plus more for Cousins and then giving him a huge deal. At least with JG you have a season on a cheap contract that you can either make him play out before paying him or use it as leverage for a more reasonable long-term deal than you'd have to give Cousins. Plus, as you noted, they need help everywhere. It doesn't make sense to give up a bunch of picks for a veteran QB when you don't have the other pieces around him.
Yes and no. It really depends on the type of QB that Shanahan wants to build around. He has experience working with Cousins; and although the cost will be higher, if Shanahan feels comfortable with him, that can go a long way to setting up his program
Regarding Cousins, Sally and I are enjoying the spectacle equally --
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/redskins/kirk-cousins-is-going-to-make-the-redskins-pay-no-matter-where-he-ends-up/2017/02/23/ceb2bf22-f9ce-11e6-9845-576c69081518_story.html?utm_term=.11cbb7806107
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/redskins/kirk-cousins-is-going-to-make-the-redskins-pay-no-matter-where-he-ends-up/2017/02/23/ceb2bf22-f9ce-11e6-9845-576c69081518_story.html?utm_term=.11cbb7806107
Equally tasty:
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It's over two years, so for example TD/Int 59/23 for Ryan, 54/23 for Cousins. Rating fwiw. ~103 for Ryan and ~99 for Cousins.
But of course comparing them is, actually, wrong.
Edit: 54/23 for Cousins.
Jenkins did some strong DFG work - and I have a higher opinion of Cousins than many here, I think he's a top 10-12 QB - but she's going a bridge too far by trying to compare him to Ryan. He's got the Skins by the balls, no doubt. But come on.
That's in the weeds. Her broader point is about being stupid and arrogant - "offering" in a long term extension no more money that he already had coming to him under the franchise tag. And about how glorious it is to see NFL ownership -- any ownership -- choke to death on a franchise tag. Cousins is Revis-like in his approach to this, and he should be.
Ryan was obviously far superior to Cousins this season, but when you compare their age 27 and 28 seasons, Cousins is better by pretty much any measure. Cousins has been a top-10 DVOA and QBR guy the past two seasons (his first two starting). So, when you look at the full body of work, I think it's a reasonable comparison. Letting a 29 year old top 10 QB walk is crazy town.
You and I are pissing into a 60 mph gale on this, but time will resolve it one way or another.
Here is another way of looking at it. I believe Cousins is 28 and JG 25. Cousins has two years playing experience over him. JG would give his left nut for his next two seasons to be like Cousins last two. And if he somehow did that in a Pats uniform, we'd burn the place down if there were any thought of trading him. Cousins did what he did with an awful defense and mediocre at best running game.
He's only gonna end up there if they trade him. And if they trade him they'll get the #2 pick and draft Watson (Snyder likes shiny objects) and start McCoy or Watson.
Well, it's conceivable that they put the non-restricted tag on him and the 49ers sign him to an offer ... giving Washington the right to match or two first-rounders
Is it really that unlikely that Brady starts one more year, then they trade him and go with Garoppolo?
In terms of passing the baton, which has to happen eventually, getting out in front of things like that sure seems smart to me...
In terms of passing the baton, which has to happen eventually, getting out in front of things like that sure seems smart to me...
Yes because TB is the Babe Ruth of this franchise, and because of his emotional bond with Bob Kraft. My guess is that TB gets dealt out of here over Kraft's dead body.
But kudos to you. I have been waiting 13 pages for this suggestion. And it's a very SoSH suggestion because it is quite logical. TB Is not playing at this level until he is 45 -- unless he is not human.
What are the odds of Jimmy G being better than Brady in two years?
If he can't beat out Brady by then, he will probably be gone.
I am pretty sure Jimmy G may be better than TB12 in 5 years, but he may not be better than him in 3 years.
I'm suggesting that folks here are overrating the trade value of both QBs. The Browns might offer #12 for JG, but if they do, it will be the Pats' best offer by a wide margin. I do think JG is the more valuable asset of the two; despite all the San Francisco talk, I can't see the Niners giving up a net package worth more than the #12 pick for the right to guarantee $60mm to Cousins, especially when there's a good chance he'll be available for just money a year from now.
One of the things that gets occasionally mentioned on PFW in Progress is that Perillo seriously advocated the Pats attempt to trade Brady for Matt Stafford for a couple of years (2012 and 2013, I think).
To his credit Perillo fully owns it and admits it wasn't a very good idea, but it's always funny when they bring it up.
To his credit Perillo fully owns it and admits it wasn't a very good idea, but it's always funny when they bring it up.
Peter King (I know...) suggested today that if he were the Browns, he'd offer 12 and 65 for JG. I'd have to think the Pats take that offer.
BB has always placed a premium on the backup when Brady was in the middle of his career. The only threat there was injury. Now that its a double whammy, injury or age in play the next phase of Brady's career, I have to believe BB places a higher premium on a legit backup ready to go. We have that right now. If he lets JG go, it says a lot about his confidence in JB or his ability to draft and groom someone to be in a JG level of competence with this offense in 2-3 years.
I've believed JG is gone if we get the 12th pick + offer. But the closer this gets the more I think BB stands pat on this one.
I've believed JG is gone if we get the 12th pick + offer. But the closer this gets the more I think BB stands pat on this one.
"We have that right now"... for exactly one more year and no longer. It is plain as day that Garoppolo will have offers to start somewhere else, and will not have an offer to start here unless Brady gets Theismann'd.
BB needs to plan for a window beyond just 2017. If he believes Brissett would be suitable (or likely to become suitable), then the value-maximizing strategy is to take offers for JG if they are enough above the 3rd-round comp pick to exceed the value of "premium Brady insurance" that JG provides over-and-above Brissett. For one year.
That's not an enormous bar to clear, which is why so many people before the end of the season were talking about taking a 2nd for him, with (faint) hope for a 1st. Now that the chatter is all about how good a 1st-rounder they'll get for him, I think it's even more of a slam-dunk to run a quick auction and take the best offer.
BB needs to plan for a window beyond just 2017. If he believes Brissett would be suitable (or likely to become suitable), then the value-maximizing strategy is to take offers for JG if they are enough above the 3rd-round comp pick to exceed the value of "premium Brady insurance" that JG provides over-and-above Brissett. For one year.
That's not an enormous bar to clear, which is why so many people before the end of the season were talking about taking a 2nd for him, with (faint) hope for a 1st. Now that the chatter is all about how good a 1st-rounder they'll get for him, I think it's even more of a slam-dunk to run a quick auction and take the best offer.
It's actually exactly 3 with tags, but that's a different discussion as I don't think we're going to pay JG more than Brady in either of those 2 additional years. But I don't doubt that BB has figured out a path to JG being on the roster until Brady calls it quits under some modified big payday with the real one coming down the road.
Well, he's probably figured out that path. What we don't know is whether he thinks that path is the right one to take. Many of us, including you I think, believe that he doesn't see it as being the best path.
Does anyone thing BB's decision is guided in part by how long he wants to coach and how long he wants to coach post-Brady?
In what world does Jimmy G say, "Sure, I'll be a backup for another three years! I'd love to hold a clipboard for SIX YEARS!" I get that some of us want to have a nice, long, smooth transition, but that is, IMO, wildly unrealistic. He's not staying. He wants to play. He's getting traded.
And, much as you'd like it to be, long-term it's not entirely up to BB. Jimmy has made it clear that he wants to play quarterback. It's been three years already. If TB12 is to be believed, and I think everyone does believe him - including his agent, who is also Jimmy's agent - then there is absolutely no reason to think JG would agree to sign long term here, even with some pretend wink-wink agreement with the front office.
And, much as you'd like it to be, long-term it's not entirely up to BB. Jimmy has made it clear that he wants to play quarterback. It's been three years already. If TB12 is to be believed, and I think everyone does believe him - including his agent, who is also Jimmy's agent - then there is absolutely no reason to think JG would agree to sign long term here, even with some pretend wink-wink agreement with the front office.
Interesting thought but in this context I would be surprised.
I think in the near term, he wants to win. Brady is his best option there. It might be 1 or 3 or (not likely) 5 years of Brady being the team's best shot at winning.
I think he'll cross the post-Brady era when he knows more about it.
Right now, I think a 1st round draft pick plus is more likely to let him win over the next two years than banking JG in case TB goes down.
(Standard disclaimer: obviously I don't know what BB thinks about it).
I completely agree with this, and I don't see any way that they're both on the team next year (much less two years from now).
If JG wants to start, there's really only three possibilities after next year: (1) he chooses to sign elsewhere, (2) he stays because TB is gone, or (3) he gets franchised. And with (3), with the way the salary cap is in the NFL, I'm not sure that you can afford to pay the franchise QB tag amount on a backup QB that (if things go well) would never see the field. It's just a gigantic allocation of resources on a backup plan, and I cannot imagine that there isn't an alternative use of that $ that wouldn't have a substantially higher value in terms of increasing the chances of winning a title in the next 1-2 years.
I can't find the post right now, but a few pages back someone made a very valid theoretical point - if you think about it in reverse, where the Pats just had TB and JB and JG had the same exact success but for on another team, would anyone be in favor of NE trading their 1st round pick (even the last 1st round pick) for JG to be the backup QB? If no, it's hard to argue that keeping him is the better option. It's a shame, but this is why good backups / 4th outfielders / 6th men are hard to find - if they're great in that role, they could probably get paid more and have greater opportunities as a starter on another team.
Won't be a problem so long as Brady learns to Pizza'd when he's supposed to instead of French frying.
/paraphrasing
Exactly. Contract is an issue, but aside from that JimmyG wants to actually have a chance to start at quarterback. Keeping him as insurance for 2017 for a likely title contender and on the off chance things change drastically and Brady is done 12 months from now if the trade market isn't great for Jimmy? Sure, fine, reasonable decision, particularly given the importance of the position. Keeping him beyond 2017 if Brady plays at even a decent level next year and expresses a continued interest to play until he's 45? The path is to spend franchise tag money and cap space on a backup without the actual guarantee that he will sign here (for a lot of money) when Brady does eventually retire. Oh, and while early returns are encouraging and the coaching staff will know more than anyone about how to evaluate JimmyG, there's still a pretty good chance he's not a top-tier starting quarterback.
The chances of Jimmy G, Pats starter, went down dramatically once Tom Brady turned on God mode for his age 39 season. The timeline just doesn't match up.
Now Brissett...still early in the development/evaluation stage, but that timeline might matchup and the type of contract extension KFP described very early in the thread may be a creative option down the line.
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