Winter Meetings Rumors/News/Notes

dcmissle

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Rizzo generally makes pretty shrewd deals and I'm not sure there's anything on his record you could call a 'loss'. This one seems crazy, though.
That is true. Rizzo would much rather walk away than overpay. I can't remember a deal where he overpaid. This is at least full price.

Agree with Wing on Eaton > McCutch. But this still is not how Rizzo usually rolls.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Love the deal for the White Sox. I'm curious. I know it's not going to happen but if the Nats called up the Yankees and said we'll give you Harper for Betances Frazier and 3 other top prospects would the Yankees say no? Granted I think everyone believes this dude is a Yankee in 2 years but it's interesting to think about.
 

dcmissle

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Meanwhile, White Sox doing some good work here. Cashmaning the offseason.
 

jon abbey

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Love the deal for the White Sox. I'm curious. I know it's not going to happen but if the Nats called up the Yankees and said we'll give you Harper for Betances Frazier and 3 other top prospects would the Yankees say no? Granted I think everyone believes this dude is a Yankee in 2 years but it's interesting to think about.
Yes, they would say no. They're not going to win this year with or without him, their rotation is Tanaka and a slew of question marks, and Tanaka can opt out after 2017 if he wants. They need to get more young pieces in place in the majors before thinking about trading prospects for established stars, like the Cubs and Red Sox have done (in different ways).

If NY was in the same personnel position 12 months ago as they are now and were offered that, I think it would be much more of a discussion. Three years of control of Harper and coming off an insane MVP season, plus Tanaka for two more seasons, not just one.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Not reasonably. Though the argument would be a fine example of not understanding the fickle nature of defensive value incorporated in WAR.
Even then, he has 13.1 oWAR over the last 3 seasons. They gave up a lot but it seems in line with a lot of the other crazy prospect for MLB player deals that have been happening lately.


Call up Rizzo and offer up Buchholz for Rendon. After seeing the Eaton deal, he just might do it.

Kidding(well, sort of).
He said optionable, which Clay isn't.
 

sean1562

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would we have taken that deal for jbj? i think we all say yes, no? bradley is a year younger and with one more year of control. the nats have some pitching talent in their system, and lopez wasnt really a big time prospect until this year. prospects fail, teams create more. the nats decided they would go all in while they had prime scherzer, stras, tanner roark and harper. joe ross is a pretty good pitcher when healthy
 

Plympton91

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would we have taken that deal for jbj? i think we all say yes, no? bradley is a year younger and with one more year of control. the nats have some pitching talent in their system, and lopez wasnt really a big time prospect until this year. prospects fail, teams create more. the nats decided they would go all in while they had prime scherzer, stras, tanner roark and harper. joe ross is a pretty good pitcher when healthy
The question there is, what do they have in Stras?
 

jtn46

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Eaton is a really shrewd pickup, but I wonder who was offering a package anywhere near this for him. I think he's probably valuable enough and cheap enough to justify a high cost it's just a tough sell to a fanbase especially if McCutchen gets traded for less.
 

moondog80

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Not reasonably. Though the argument would be a fine example of not understanding the fickle nature of defensive value incorporated in WAR.
Eaton's dWAR the past three years isn't especially high, just 2.5. As Bosox said, his oWAR the past 3 years is still 13.1. If you want to tell us that oWAR still contains a positional adjustment (while not measuring a player's actual defense), fine. Same three years, Sale has an ERA+ of 129, Eaton an OPS+ of 120. Sale wins that one, but not by a huge amount (and it's due to a crazy good year in 2014 that he hasn't come close to the past two seasons). That's fine. Sale is better, I'd rather have him than Eaton next year, but much of Eaton's value is tied to the fact that you get two extra years for less total dollars.

And if you don't buy that, there's the fact that in the real world, Eaton commanded a package very similar to Sale.
 

MikeM

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To me Eaton looks like a scenario of half "WAR Gone Wild", half panicked overpay in the aftermath of missing out on Sale. But you'd still really need to see the final #'s on what Fowler gets before ripping Rizzo too hard on this.

(What did Jon Jay sign for, 1y/$8M? Go Theo)
 

MikeM

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So Jansen is lined up quite well to get that Marlins overpay now that Chapman is off the board.
 

ehaz

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I think it is completely reasonable for a team to want Eaton more than McCutchen.
Sure the contract is great, but Lopez is a great prospect and the Nats seemed to be all in on McCutchen. Given Washington's window to contend, I don't see how it's reasonable for them to want Eaton over Cutch.

The Nationals making this trade means they are trying to go for it now while they still have Harper. McCutchen has an MVP season under his belt and an OPS+ of 146 over the last 5 years including his shitty 2016. If I'm Washington, I don't give a shit about Eaton's dWAR. Maybe that's why I'm drunk on the couch and not Rizzo but I think you should be doing everything to try to win before Harper takes a 40M AAV until 2084 from the NYY and no one can convince me that Adam Eaton > McCutchen for the next two years.
 
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B H Kim

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Eaton is really cheap, controlled for 5 years, and still only 27 years old, so maybe he gets even better. But, that seems like a hell of a lot to give up, especially with Strasburg a huge question mark. Plus, The Nats still don't have a closer or a set up man. Maybe getting Eaton so cheap in dollars frees payroll to sign Jansen. Wow. Rick Hahn making early case for executive of the year.

Eaton
Turner
Harper
Rendon
Murphy
Worth
Zimmerman
Norris


Is a pretty sick lineup though if they can keep people healthy this year.
Someone should tell them that, just because Trump won, it doesn't mean that every D.C. institution has to go with an all-white lineup.
 
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Devizier

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Eaton's dWAR the past three years isn't especially high, just 2.5.
The real question is if Eaton can continue playing defense as well as he has (or if he can shift to CF, even better). He was a highly touted CF prospect back with the Diamondbacks so it's possible. But if he's even an average (defensively) center fielder, then the Nationals will have done just fine. That's a considerable if, however.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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I can tell you this. Unless the Dodgers pulled their offer or its significantly lower than Miami's Jansen is going back to LA. No trade is always a big sticking point since Miami has the fire sale rep.
 

JimD

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No wonder the White Sox agreed to trade Sale to Boston - they knew they had a good chance to land that Nats package as well.
 

sean1562

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I think rizzo must love robles, and of the three, wanted him more than Lopez or giolito. if Lopez is just a reliever and giolito isn't seen internally as an ace prospect, it makes more sense
 

dcmissle

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Word here is not only did Nats sour on Giolito, but also everyone knew it. Which is a real crappy position to put yourself in based on a half dozen appearances last season. They sold him while his stock was low and Eaton's high -- which doesn't necessarily make it a bad deal: Giolito's stock could go lower, Eaton's higher. But one year ago, Nats probably would not have traded Gio for Eaton straight up.
 

nattysez

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Koji to the Cubs.

Rondon-Wade Davis-Koji is a pretty nice late-innings combo if Koji has anything left in the tank and can actually be used only every other day.
 

jon abbey

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Word here is not only did Nats sour on Giolito, but also everyone knew it. Which is a real crappy position to put yourself in based on a half dozen appearances last season.
I don't think it was just the major league appearances, his minor league numbers have never equalled his hype either (not passing any judgment myself, just reporting).
 

simplicio

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Well, I can't think of a better way to wash off the stink of Chapman. Well played, Theo.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I don't think it was just the major league appearances, his minor league numbers have never equalled his hype either (not passing any judgment myself, just reporting).
I know we did this dance when you thought you were going to get him for Chapman, but that's not even close to being true. In 75 minor league appearances and close to 400 innings over 4 seasons, he has a 2.73 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, 9.2 K/9. His walk rate is high, but he had injury issues and they effed with his delivery. I'd be curious as to what numbers you're looking at that lead to you saying that and also ask if you think looking at box scores is the end all be all of scouting prospects.
 

jon abbey

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I know we did this dance when you thought you were going to get him for Chapman, but that's not even close to being true. In 75 minor league appearances and close to 400 innings over 4 seasons, he has a 2.73 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, 9.2 K/9. His walk rate is high, but he had injury issues and they effed with his delivery. I'd be curious as to what numbers you're looking at that lead to you saying that and also ask if you think looking at box scores is the end all be all of scouting prospects.
The International League is a pitcher's league, compare Giolito's numbers to Chad Green or Jordan Montgomery's in that league last year. Giolito's are actually better than I remembered, I just remember watching Chance Adams outpitch him every week in AA for a while last year ('watching'=following box scores in this case).

And no, of course not, I even made a point of specifically saying NOT PASSING ANY JUDGMENT MYSELF. I'm not the one saying WAS was down on him, that is Jeff Passan among others, so maybe take up your quibble with him.
 

jon abbey

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And so this doesn't continue to pop up for years, I have no opinion about Lucas Giolito's future. I have no idea whether he will win ten Cy Youngs or be tending bar three years from now, I have never seen him throw a single pitch. Last trading deadline, I merely questioned why the top pitching prospect in the entire game was putting up inferior results against the same minor league opponents as compared to other pitchers his age who were much less touted. I just broached the topic, I drew no conclusions.
 

Comeback Kid

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Not a total excuse, but he may have never had a chance to get his bearings. A little insight into Giolito's time in the majors, courtesy of Joe Sheehan:
Beginning on June 22, and ending when he was called up to the majors on September 7, Giolito was involved in eight transactions that sent him to pitch at three levels, none for more than 24 days. Giolito went from Double-A to the majors to the Sally League to Triple-A to the majors -- for one day -- to Triple-A to the majors -- for one day -- to Triple-A and then back to the majors. If you'd decided a pitcher was your sworn enemy and you were trying to destroy him, it would look a bit like that.
 

SemperFidelisSox

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Not player related, but the league announced a new partnership with Under Armour. The big change will be that the Under Armour logo will be on the front of all uniforms starting in 2020.
 

BoSox Rule

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And so this doesn't continue to pop up for years, I have no opinion about Lucas Giolito's future. I have no idea whether he will win ten Cy Youngs or be tending bar three years from now, I have never seen him throw a single pitch. Last trading deadline, I merely questioned why the top pitching prospect in the entire game was putting up inferior results against the same minor league opponents as compared to other pitchers his age who were much less touted. I just broached the topic, I drew no conclusions.
I've been reading a lot of people over the last year that are down on Giolito (including Eno Sarris on his FG Chat today.) He doesn't throw as hard as he used to and it's a straight fastball, plus he walks a lot of people.
 

Cesar Crespo

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So is the difference between 5/38.4 vs 5/82.5 worth the prospects? I don't think the Nats got ripped off as much as others do but I'm not as high on the prospects they traded. TINSTAAPP and all.


edit: dWAR hates Dexter Fowler though.
 

Plympton91

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So is the difference between 5/38.4 vs 5/82.5 worth the prospects? I don't think the Nats got ripped off as much as others do but I'm not as high on the prospects they traded. TINSTAAPP and all.
edit: dWAR hates Dexter Fowler though.
Eaton is two years younger as well, and the Nats must be somewhere in the vicinity of the luxury tax threshold, right? So, there might be a cliff effect of staying under with Eaton but going over with Fowler.

And you're giving up a first round draft pick too. So, that's equivalent to at least 1/2 of one of the players given up.
 
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Papelbon's Poutine

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Eaton is two years younger as well, and the Nats must be somewhere in the vicinity of the luxury tax threshold, right? So, there might be a cliff effect of staying under with Eaton but going over with Fowler.

And you're giving up a first round draft pick too. So, that's equivalent to at least 1/2 of one of the players given up.
Nats have $116.5M committed next year with about ~$29 M projected for arbitration eligible guys after non tendering Revere. (Note this is salary, not aav for some reason I'm having trouble finding aav's for next year on the google box). Werth comes off the books after this season. Murphy after next. Zimm the following year. So the argument can't even really be made that they're saving money for a Harper or Rendon resigning. They have plenty of room.

In no world is the 28th pick in the draft worth half of Lucas Giolito or Reynoldo Lopez. If for nothing else than proximity to majors, development invested and probability of being a contributing major leaguer, I find it difficult to believe an argument can be made to that effect. Someone may like to construct an argument about draft pool money, etc, but I think it's likely a stretch at best. I'd gladly entertain it though.

Eaton is a good player. His biggest attribute is his cost control. But he's miscast in CF and that's what the Nats needed. He's far better suited to RF, so maybe they're planning to make Harper the CF, which would make the trade look better. But either way, if the rumors were true and this package was what was on the table for Sale - Robles included or not - and they sent it for Eaton, than Rizzo most likely overpaid by a good margin and would have been better off giving that contract to Fowler or offering that package for another CFer. As a Sox fan, I'd have gladly given JBJ for either, let alone both. He has had a remarkably solid track record, but this seems like it might have been his first big miss. The contract for Fowler will almost undoubtedly be an overpay, but the price paid for Eaton will almost certainly be more painful in the long run, even if you don't buy into Giolito being as good as he is touted.