Dave Dombrowski: The Right Man For The Job?

Snodgrass'Muff

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I absolutely agree with selling off prospects if someone is blocked. I've argued in other threads for trading JBJ for that reason. I think having three plus centerfielders in the outfield is a waste of defensive ability. But none of the traded players were blocked here unless you really do believe we can trust Sandoval to return to form.

I do think the wildcard vs divsion point is a good one in favor of selling prospects.
The only thing I would add regarding the first paragraph is that even if you don't consider Moncada blocked or redundant (and I think Devers makes a very good case for the latter... so does Alex Speier), he's less valuable to the Red Sox at third or another position if he moves again later, than he would be to a team that can play him at 2nd like the White Sox. You can quibble with how much that value amounts to, but there's an opportunity to redistribute the difference to another area of the roster, which Dombrowski did.
 

JimD

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It's not exactly an apples to apples comparison but I've been thinking a lot this week about the Cleveland Indians of the late 90's. Those teams had a powerhouse offense but the pitching staffs lacked a true ace and leaned more on aging vets like Dennis Martinez and Orel Hershiser. In November 1997 the Tribe were coming off of two World Series appearances in three years but had no trophy yet to show for it. With the nucleus of his team still in place, GM John Hart had an opportunity to rectify this and add Pedro Martinez to the rotation. Cleveland was rumored to be the favorite to land him, but the talks with the Expos ultimately fell through reportedly because Hart refused to part with top prospect Jaret Wright. The Indians' window stayed open for four more seasons but they failed to make it back to the World Series.

Yeah, Jaret Wright never quite bloomed to be a great pitcher, but how valuable would he had to have been to be more valuable than Pedro Martinez for those next few seasons (assuming Cleveland extended Pedro, of course)?
 

bringbackburks

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I think one thing to keep in mind is that all the propects Dombrowski has traded were really only recently brought into the organization. Both Basabe's, Kopech, Moncada, and Espinoza were signed or draffed between 2013-2015. This was undoubtedly a very successful period of player evaluation and development, but not unprecedented. Will the group drafted and developed between 2016-18 be as highly regarded? Probably not, but chances are the sox will obtain at least 1 or 2 top 100 prospects that will combine with Groome and Devers to head a still decent system. That's the thing about prospects, there are always more coming and as long as you have a good system in place to identify talent, the trades Dombrowski has made are reasonable every few years. Of course you don't want to miss on a generational talent like Moncada might be, but development under Dombrowski won't stop. The question now is whether he can keep the development success going.
 

67WasBest

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The details are too important to answer this with any kind of specificity. What I can say is that in this instance, with this roster under control for as long as it is and contracts set to expire when they will, with this particular group of prospects playing the particular positions they do, with the division in the place that it is (with regard to teams on the rise or fall as they are), with the new CBA in place making it harder to justify going over the LT threshold, with the their restrictions on the IFA market lifting and the ability to spend capped across the league as it is, and the price of pitching being a astronomical as it is on the free agent market...

...these moves make sense.
I enjoyed both the article, and the thread discussion tremendously, but this post in particular nails it. In this city, with the youth and control of this team, and in this labor market; what DDo did, basically adding only $15M of salary and dropping payroll slightly under the LT limit is meritorious. I find it difficult to see a path to a greater return, in both talent, and years of control, for the AAV added.

So many trade options for restocking the system, or gaining a needed player due to injury. A Buchholz trade, assuming a prospect return, would give them about $17M of payroll maneuverability. That's pretty remarkable considering the deep talent on the squad.
 

Eddie Jurak

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A couple of thoughts:

1. I think it's a mistake to go too far with the line of thinking that Cherington built the farm and DD sacrificed it. Yes, that is true to an extent, but a lot of what has happened over the past 5 years has little if anything to do with differences in philosophy between DD and BC:
  • Rule changes in the both draft and the international amateur market that limited the Red Sox ability to use money to acquire talent (this is a major cause of a lot of what the Red Sox do differently under DD than under BC (and even moreso under Theo)
  • The suckage of the 2012, 2014, and 2015 Red Sox, which improved their draft position and bonus pool (I think we can all agree that BC was not consciously trying to create a shitty major league team to improve his draft standing)
  • Except for 2013, BC's Boston teams were the type that deal vets for prospects as opposed to vice versa - and arguiably Cherington did not dip into that market as much as he could/should have)
  • The availability of Yoan Moncada, for non-salary cap dollars, was a one time opportunity that just happened to come up while Cherington was GM - I imagine the Sox would have done the same thing under DD
  • The "death penalty" for international signings was largely the product of stuff that happened on Cherington's watch, and DD had no option but to deal with it
So, yes, the era of the $100 million developmental machine is over, and it ended on DD's watch. But it is largely not the product of DD's trades that did this - it is rule changes, penalties, the Red Sox suddenly being good, etc, that are putting an end to the machine more than anything else.

With that in mind, it is still true that DD inherited an incredibly good farm system and dealt most of it away for major league help.

But I would still argue that if the rules allowed DD to replenish aggressively, he would replenish aggressively, and the impact of his flurry of deals would be muted.

The real question is - given that rule changes killed the machine, should DD have been more reluctant to deal from his prospect depth than he has been? I don't know. It is hard to argue agaist most of these deals.
 

mauf

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In hindsight, you wouldn't do the Espinoza for Pomeranz deal -- not so much because of Pomeranz's disappointing finish as because of the Sale acquisition, and also Price's strong finish to the season. If the Sox still had Espinoza, most of us would be saying the franchise was back in balance after tipping too far toward stockpiling young talent in 2014-15.
 
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Savin Hillbilly

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It occurs to me that you could sum up what an extraordinary force DD has been this way: who would have guessed, at the end of the 2015 season, that by Christmas 2016 the Sox would have David Price and the AL Cy Young incumbent fighting for the #2 slot in the rotation?

About the farm rebuilding: I think we may be worrying too much about late draft positions over the next few years. High draft picks never hurt, of course, but you can build winners without them; we've done it before. The homegrown players who played key roles in our 2007 and 2013 championships were all acquired during a stretch when the Sox were in the playoffs nearly every year, so none of them was a top-20 pick (Ellsbury came closest at #23). There is no reason why the Sox can't rebuild a strong farm system through a period of consistent contention if their scouting and development operations are up to it.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Why worry about the farm system in 2016? You just saw two teams over the last 6 months completely replenish their systems to top 5 status with a couple trades. DD is a obviously someone who will be able to find market weakness and exploit it to help his team in the future. Enjoy the hell out of your mega rotation and don't even think twice about a couple prospects who you have no real attachment to yet anyway. Regardless of that point, you didn't trade your farm for a rental or an older player with a large contract. It was a bonafide ace and a great 8th inning guy. You've been able to bring along a few impact players to the MLB roster the last two or three seasons and trade away prospects for important pieces. Thats exactly what people should want from their farm.
 

timduhda1

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I am very new to posting (as you can see by the number of posts) on this site, but I have to laugh at all of the people complaining about depleting the farm system. Can anyone honestly say that the Sox have REALLY tried to win championships at Lowell, Portland or even Pawtucket? I would say no. All MiLB teams are set up to help the parent team (either through development to make it to the big club or trade bait) and that's all. I was pleasantly surprised to read the post of crow and totally agree with his sentiments. DD is doing exactly what he was hired to do. He is making the parent club competitive now. I have no doubt that between the scouting, trading and training the farm system will be ok.
 

Sox Puppet

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It occurs to me that you could sum up what an extraordinary force DD has been this way: who would have guessed, at the end of the 2015 season, that by Christmas 2016 the Sox would have David Price and the AL Cy Young incumbent fighting for the #2 slot in the rotation?
Well stated -- and not to mention, we could see a scenario where two 2016 All-Stars (Pomeranz, Wright) don't even make the rotation at all.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I am very new to posting (as you can see by the number of posts) on this site, but I have to laugh at all of the people complaining about depleting the farm system. Can anyone honestly say that the Sox have REALLY tried to win championships at Lowell, Portland or even Pawtucket? I would say no. All MiLB teams are set up to help the parent team (either through development to make it to the big club or trade bait) and that's all.
Red herring alert: no one's talking about winning minor league championships. Of course the farm system is there to help the parent team. But it can't do that if there's no talent in it. That's all people are saying. I agree that it's too soon for Chicken Little-ing; there's no reason to assume the system won't be restocked successfully by the time they need it to be. But it is going to be a big task.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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The draft is very different today than it was when Ellsbury was drafted. I don't know how hard it will or won't be to restock with late round picks going forward but how well they did under very different rules probably isn't instructive.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
The draft is very different today than it was when Ellsbury was drafted. I don't know how hard it will or won't be to restock with late round picks going forward but how well they did under very different rules probably isn't instructive.
What differences between the draft now and ten years ago make it less likely that a team could make up for later draft rank by excelling at scouting and development? (Not a rhetorical question, I'm curious.)
 

Eddie Jurak

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The draft is very different today than it was when Ellsbury was drafted. I don't know how hard it will or won't be to restock with late round picks going forward but how well they did under very different rules probably isn't instructive.
This is absolutely true - it is a whole different ballgame now. I think the bonus cap hurts good teams even more than the lower draft position. (Having Groome slide to them and going over slot as a result really limited what the Sox could do in the later rounds).

The question is, how should this negative (for the Red Sox) change in the way the system works affect the way they do business? I don't know. With the pipeline that brought them Betts Bogaerts Benintendi Bradley Kopech Moncada and a stacked system having largely dried up, does that mean become more reluctant to deal prospects? At best that's only a temporary fix.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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What differences between the draft now and ten years ago make it less likely that a team could make up for later draft rank by excelling at scouting and development? (Not a rhetorical question, I'm curious.)
The teams used to be able to spend as much as they wanted. So they could draft guys that had high demands or were headed to college or wanted to play a different sport or whatever, in later rounds and throw as much money as they wanted at them. One of the biggest Sox examples of this was Lars Anderson, who the Sox took in the 18th round and gave $825K, which was going rate for a supplemental pick at the time.

Edit: we still see some manipulations in the later rounds, but the slotting system has severely impacted the ability to spend at will, which was the hammer Theo swung to build his farm.
 
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snowmanny

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Well there's re-stocking and there's finding another #1 prospect like Moncada: that part's even tougher. (Although with Hanley, Matsuzaka, Bogaerts and Moncada the Red Sox have done that, or close to that, like four times since 2006). Cherington gets credit for getting Betts out of the minors before Dombrowski came to town.
 

SydneySox

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I am very new to posting (as you can see by the number of posts) on this site, but I have to laugh at all of the people complaining about depleting the farm system. Can anyone honestly say that the Sox have REALLY tried to win championships at Lowell, Portland or even Pawtucket? I would say no. All MiLB teams are set up to help the parent team (either through development to make it to the big club or trade bait) and that's all. I was pleasantly surprised to read the post of crow and totally agree with his sentiments. DD is doing exactly what he was hired to do. He is making the parent club competitive now. I have no doubt that between the scouting, trading and training the farm system will be ok.
You're laughing at people who you think are worried about the success of minor league teams?

This entire discussion is around balance. Short vs long.

While I'm glad you're sure the farm system will be 'ok' I'm not sure what that means. Regardless, no one cares. People are discussing the difference between the current team, and future teams and sustainability.

Maybe less laughing at people and more thought is the way forward.
 

Plympton91

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The draft is very different today than it was when Ellsbury was drafted. I don't know how hard it will or won't be to restock with late round picks going forward but how well they did under very different rules probably isn't instructive.
It's instructive that Kopech wasn't a first round pick and that the signings of neither Basabe nor Diaz would be precluded by the new international rules.

My guess is that by next July, we'll all have new binkies and we'll be worried about them being blocked. Read through some of the reports from instructional league on SoxProspects, there's quite a few very interesting arms that were in the DSL and they did catch some falling stars in Dalbec and Shawaryn. Nothing in this agreement is going to prevent doing that again and again.
 

Sampo Gida

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Top 20 prospects have bust rates approaching 50% and the rest of top 100 prospects have bust rates around 70%. Pitching prospects are at the height of their injury nexus. So there is that. Basically rolling the dice with these guys at best.

Red Sox have a dismal record when it comes to developing pitching, especially over the last 8 years. They had a bunch of position prospects, some of whom were blocked, and their top pitching prospects were all at the lower levels. Its hard to build a good pitching staff entirely through free agency or w/o trading prospects or proven MLB players (like Andrew Miller) .

Kopech is probably close to MLB ready after some more AA time and his loss pains me, but Sale is pretty good and unlike Price is still playing for the big contract.

The Sale deal reminds me of the Beckett deal where Theo traded a couple of top prospects from the Duke era (Hanley and Anibal). Paid off in 2007.

Maybe Moncada and Kopech become as good as Hanley and Sanchez were, maybe they are better or worse. Nobody knows.

Kimbrels deal was much like Bens trade of Reddick for Andrew Bailey. The point being that DD is not doing anything that his predecessors did not do. His Kimbrel trade looks to be better than the Bailey deal so far, especially if his manager uses him more wisely.

If DD can avoid Crawford like signing (hopefully Price is not that guy) or dealing a Rizzo for a 1Bman coming off a labrum injury (Agon)
then he will be OK.

Lets face it, this is a team that has not won a post season game in 7 of the last 8 seasons. Lot of post season revenue being left on the table despite the fact the Yankees have been mediocre for the last 4 years and looking to bounce back in a couple of years. Time to win is now. Didnt work last year and we just lost our best hitter, so he improved the pitching. Nothing wrong with that.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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It's instructive that Kopech wasn't a first round pick and that the signings of neither Basabe nor Diaz would be precluded by the new international rules.

My guess is that by next July, we'll all have new binkies and we'll be worried about them being blocked. Read through some of the reports from instructional league on SoxProspects, there's quite a few very interesting arms that were in the DSL and they did catch some falling stars in Dalbec and Shawaryn. Nothing in this agreement is going to prevent doing that again and again.
Kopech was a first rounder (#33 overall). Ironically (for this post), it was the Ellsbury comp pick.

One thing people don't mention is that while yes, there might be in three years a dearth of talent in the farm system to replace what the Red Sox are going lose when this window closes, but no one knows whether Moncada, Kopech, and Groome were going to be sufficient to make them a WS contender. To me, it's better to contend for a WS for three years and then bottom out than to win 85-90 games for multiple years in a row yet never really have a chance to win it all.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Kopech was a first rounder (#33 overall). Ironically (for this post), it was the Ellsbury comp pick.

One thing people don't mention is that while yes, there might be in three years a dearth of talent in the farm system to replace what the Red Sox are going lose when this window closes, but no one knows whether Moncada, Kopech, and Groome were going to be sufficient to make them a WS contender. To me, it's better to contend for a WS for three years and then bottom out than to win 85-90 games for multiple years in a row yet never really have a chance to win it all.
This is the big question. If there's a way to balance being competitive with consistently feeding talent into the farm system, of course the Red Sox will try to do so. But the landscape has changed and we don't fully understand what the limits are yet, or how difficult accomplishing that will be.

It's certainly not definite, but it's possible that the best way to move forward is to pounce on windows hard and then reset hard as well, creating an ebb and flow between development and competing. Cherington was clearly trying to balance under the previous CBA and it didn't work. The last CBA did a lot to make that more difficult. That doesn't mean it wasn't possible, it just means he failed in that regard (blowing money on players like Sandoval and Castillo will do that). That said, the new CBA makes it even harder to throw money around to stock (or restock) a farm system, so we may be even further down that rabbit hole if that exists.

Dombrowski may have come to a conclusion somewhere in that neighborhood, or maybe he is just perpetually interested in the now over the future (or may be focused on a finite window that Henry has given him before Henry intends to sell the team). He's a smart guy, though... he'd have to be to be successful as an executive for so long... so I'm willing to at least hope he's on to something here.

Edit: And I know the 2012, 2014 and 2015 seasons were really aggravating for most fans. And without 2013 it would have been so much worse. But for me, personally, 2014 and 2015 were not without their joys since we got to watch the farm system develop as it did. So if the path forward is go for it hard, then reset hard... rinse/repeat, I'd be okay with that. It's completely legitimate to not be, though, since many people just don't care about prospects, the IFA signing period and the draft as I do. There are a lot of ways to love baseball.
 

Eddie Jurak

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It's certainly not definite, but it's possible that the best way to move forward is to pounce on windows hard and then reset hard as well, creating an ebb and flow between development and competing.
I think this is possibly how things will start to play out. It is already built in to some extent, since resources to draft and sign international talent rise as team performance falls. But teams could go further by being more aggressive about making buy vs sell decisions based on team performance and expectations.

The only other possibility I can see is for teams to improve the quality of their low to mid level investments in prospects. The top guys are largely off the board for winning teams, both in the draft and internationally. Look at the Sox and Groome last year - they weren't even a winning team in 2015 and they lucked into having the right guy slide to them at 12... but even then getting him signed limited their options throughout the rest of the draft.

I wonder if anyone has looked into how teams compare in player value from average to below-slot signings since 2012? A team that could consistently find better talent there would have a real advantage that would help regardless of the team's draft/bonus pool situation. The question is how much value is there to be found - I'd assume there would be more value internationally than in the draft.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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I think this is possibly how things will start to play out. It is already built in to some extent, since resources to draft and sign international talent rise as team performance falls. But teams could go further by being more aggressive about making buy vs sell decisions based on team performance and expectations.
The other factor is the Wild Card and how it has changed. Everything about the last two CBA's has been about increasing parity and turnover. Yes, the Wild Card being two teams and a play-in game means more teams are in the hunt than ever before, but it also means winning the divisions is far more important than it has been at any time in the Wild Card era.

That means that every year a number of teams will decide not to hedge their bets anymore and will sell off everything like the White Sox are doing now, which means more really bad teams on the other end of the spectrum. This feeds the wild card race, of course, since it creates divisions like the AL Central next year which will be awful and create additional marginal teams.

Look at Detroit and Kansas City. Either one of them could decide to push for it one more time with the knowledge that the only other competitive team in the division will be the Indians. A soft divisional schedule is a valid path to a Wild Card berth, especially with the AL East likely to beat up on itself again. But another season of being marginal probably increases the chances of a hard reset next winter. The fact that both appear to be considering one now is evidence of this.

I think we're entering a period where there is going to be a lot of mediocrity every season, a bunch of truly awful teams, and a handful of great ones. Next year we could be seeing the Tigers, Royals, White Sox, A's, Angels, Brewers, Reds, Padres and Braves as truly abysmal teams. That's a lot of horrendous major league rosters. And the Phillies should be on the upswing, but will probably still have a poor record.

The Red Sox and Cubs look like the only two likely to separate themselves from the competitive pack. The Indians might depending on how Carrasco and Salazar bounce back. The rest of the majors will be competitive as either teams hanging on to windows or just entering them.

Edit: Tampa could be awful too but their offense should have enough power to be dangerous and the rotation should be good. I'm guessing they are in the Wild Card mix.
 
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YTF

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I'm a bit mixed on the whole depleting the farm system thing. I understand the worry, but at the same time much of the cream of that system has within the past couple of years risen to the major league level. There is still angst over the Pomeranz/Espinoza deal, but does that mean you don't pursue Sale because of it? I don't see Pedroia going anywhere any time soon, so other than 3rd base, what was Moncada's future with the team as presently constructed? DD has made moves while keeping the ML roster intact. Bradley, Betts and Benintendi hope to be the OF for the foreseeable future. Bogaerts at short, Rodriquez in the rotation and Vasquez/Swihart behind the plate. The subtraction of Ortiz does leave a hole offensively, but there should be enough of a line up out there to generate enough scoring. In a vacuum I love the Sale deal. Talent like that doesn't become available everyday and considering his contract as well as the the incredibly shitty FA market this season I think it's huge to add him along side of Price, Porcello and Rodriquez. In the short term the farm system concerns are more an issue with call ups and injury. In the long term, it remains to be seen. As mentioned a couple of times up thread, it's not likely that all of the prospects moved are going to pan out and for some their real value to the team has been realized via the trade route.
 

Plympton91

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I posted a longer version of this in the offseason thread before it split off, and a couple people in this thread have mentioned it, but the focus on DD may be too one-dimensional. John Henry may not plan on being "owner for life" much as we all hope he is at this point. It could be that John Henry has decided that he wants to sell in 2-5 years, and that DD's hiring and subsequent moves are all part of that plan.
 

PapaSox

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This has been one of the better discussions I've seen in a while ... thank you to all.

Now on to my thoughts ... I couldn't just drop that line and pop off.

1. The addition of Sale, Kimbrel, Smith and Thornburg are solid improvements at a very respectable cost. Even the extension offered Porcello (Credit to Cherington) seems reasonable. The insanity of the market for Starters (Price, Greinke, Scherzer ...) last year and the current craziness for Closers (Chapman, Melancon) this year makes the moves made by DD seem almost mild in comparison. Next year there is going to be a mad rush to sign pitching and the Sox can simple sit tight.
2. Winning a Division saves on the need to win the one game Wild Card competition ... Pirates have shown this to be a difficult game to win
3. There is a window of about 3 to 4 years to add prospects. This gives DD time to rebuild with the prospects presently in the organization (Devers, Groome, Ball,Travis ...).
4. The new CBA effects everyone. All teams with money will all be dealing with the same issues ... meaning there will be players out there that the Sox can draft
5. Panda is the only weakness I see. If he does not pan out is Devers ready or will Holt need to camp out on 3B.
6. Two to three years of having the best possible team to win the series is great ... with a few moves in subsequent years this can easily be extended to four or five years
7. At first the dominant lefty rotation made me concerned but then the Sox have been successful with Wakefield being the only change from a righty dominant rotation
 
Jun 24, 2016
35
When news broke of the Sale trade, the confirmed price of Moncada, Kopech, Basabe and Diaz stung and forced me to face up to the fact that Dombrowski had, in fact, decimated the best farm system in the game in the course of roughly one year. We were left with Devers, Groome and a whole lot of hopes and dreams. After the shock of the trade wore off and some analysis of the deal started pouring in, I started asking myself: Was it worth it?

Considering I'm one of the bigger prospect humpers around these parts, you might be surprised if where I landed with it:



This is a topic where there isn't going to be one right answer (despite my firm stance), so I imagine there will be plenty of back and forth on it. If you come down on the side that is sobbing quietly into your cheerios every morning since the news broke, at least take solace in the fact that the team already has a fantastic young core in place and that the next three years are going to be one of the most exciting sustained periods Fenway park has seen in its history, outside of 2003-2005.
Thanks for the article. I really enjoyed it. But I think you have it all, and I do mean, all completely wrong. Couldn't be wronger. I mean that as someone who likes your thinking and analysis, but I believe you have been spun by the Red Sox spin machine.

Not sure where to start, but the Red Sox are not better for the trades that Dombrowski made. Kimbrel was a disappointment, Kelly and Kopech would have been better.

Carson Smith, elbow surgery. Pomeranz, fell off a cliff with arm inflammation. And now by far the worst trade in Red Sox history, Chris Sale with a sea of red flags around his arm after the worst year of his career in 2016. Sale's 2016 is not an upgrade over the healthy Wright, or the ERod who should break out this year, who will be our 3 and 4 pitchers, and Sale may very well be worse than they are.

Which means Sale is at best a modest upgrade over Pomeranz or Buchholz, or the 7-8 pitchers, who don't throw that many innings, and even fewer innings in the post-season.

Dombrowski has become an easy mark for opposing GMs. He's now traded away several hundred million dollars in excess value for essentially nothing. He is a complete and utter bust as a GM.

You can argue that the Red Sox are coming into their window of being competitive, but that is also spin from the Red Sox. In fact, they just lost the heart of their order, Big Papi. Lineup production is heavily dependent on having a Papi-like bat. Without him, that lineup suffers greatly. If they really wanted to take advantage of the next few years, they needed to bring in the biggest bat available, ideally Miguel Cabrera, to make up for the loss of Papi.

If they really wanted to maximize their opportunity, they should have just gone out and spent money, and blown up the luxury tax cap. The penalties, if any, would not have hit for years. By then this window of talent would have already won them three or four titles.

You all know in your hearts I'm right. But because the Red Sox spin machine is so powerful, you have a kind of cognitive dissonance about this. It can't be true, can it? Why aren't any of the big sports writers writing about this?

John Henry owns the Globe, and nobody in this town is willing to write anything negative about Henry and his cynical dealings. He has turned the Red Sox into his own personal ATM machine, which has become his primary source of income after the failure of his hedge fund. On top of that, he has made close to a billion dollars in the book value of the Red Sox.

John Henry is the only winner here.* Everyone else, the players, the fans, even the subservient front office, are all the losers. The team has been systematically stripped of its talent all for the purpose of staying under the tax cap.

I was just banned from soxprospects by Chris Hatfield for taking this view. I understand... Nobody wants to hear this. But this view is thoroughly researched and heavily backed by analytical data. I'm sorry. Blame John Henry.

*And to a lesser extent, the minority owners.

ADD: I don't intend to respond to comments below. I expect there won't be general interest in a discussion of whether the Red Sox spin machine is manipulating the fans and the media, as my analysis claims.

If you are interested in more details or have any questions, please PM me. Thanks.
 
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Darnell's Son

He's a machine.
Moderator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
9,532
Providence, RI
The Oxford English Dictionary (OED) lists the first printed use of wrong as c.1200. Its first example with wronger is from 1375; others include 1572 and 1763. Wrongest appears in a citation from 1710, as well as in citations from later years.
I said it was gross. As in, "It sounds fucking gross, just like the rest of your post."
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,505
I was just banned from soxprospects by Chris Hatfield for taking this view. I understand... Nobody wants to hear this. But this view is thoroughly researched and heavily backed by analytical data. I'm sorry.
Dude, I asked you this before and I'll ask you this again - if you hate John Henry and the Red Sox management so much why are you posting on a Red Sox message board which is basically free advertising for the Red Sox?

If you want to rail about JH and want to argue that Kelly and Kopech would have been better closers on last year's team, why don't you start your own blog? See how many people you can convince to your post-factual analysis?

P:S. if anyone wants to see where this is going, please see this thread: http://forum.soxprospects.com/thread/3730/sale-moncada-kopech-basabe-diaz?page=22
 

Marceline

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2002
6,441
Canton, MA
Please show me your analytical data that suggests that Wright is better than Chris Sale, as you suggested a few posts up.

I'll hang up and listen.
 

Lose Remerswaal

Experiencing Furry Panic
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
You wish, Joe.

ADD: I don't intend to respond to comments below. I expect there won't be general interest in a discussion of whether the Red Sox spin machine is manipulating the fans and the media, as my analysis claims.
Just be honored he shared his thoughts with us. I know I'm spent.
 

Darnell's Son

He's a machine.
Moderator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
9,532
Providence, RI
Thanks for the article. I really enjoyed it. But I think you have it all, and I do mean, all completely wrong. Couldn't be wronger. I mean that as someone who likes your thinking and analysis, but I believe you have been spun by the Red Sox spin machine.

Not sure where to start, but the Red Sox are not better for the trades that Dombrowski made. Kimbrel was a disappointment, Kelly and Kopech would have been better.

Carson Smith, elbow surgery. Pomeranz, fell off a cliff with arm inflammation. And now by far the worst trade in Red Sox history, Chris Sale with a sea of red flags around his arm after the worst year of his career in 2016. Sale's 2016 is not an upgrade over the healthy Wright, or the ERod who should break out this year, who will be our 3 and 4 pitchers, and Sale may very well be worse than they are.

Which means Sale is at best a modest upgrade over Pomeranz or Buchholz, or the 7-8 pitchers, who don't throw that many innings, and even fewer innings in the post-season.

Dombrowski has become an easy mark for opposing GMs. He's now traded away several hundred million dollars in excess value for essentially nothing. He is a complete and utter bust as a GM.

You can argue that the Red Sox are coming into their window of being competitive, but that is also spin from the Red Sox. In fact, they just lost the heart of their order, Big Papi. Lineup production is heavily dependent on having a Papi-like bat. Without him, that lineup suffers greatly. If they really wanted to take advantage of the next few years, they needed to bring in the biggest bat available, ideally Miguel Cabrera, to make up for the loss of Papi.

If they really wanted to maximize their opportunity, they should have just gone out and spent money, and blown up the luxury tax cap. The penalties, if any, would not have hit for years. By then this window of talent would have already won them three or four titles.

You all know in your hearts I'm right. But because the Red Sox spin machine is so powerful, you have a kind of cognitive dissonance about this. It can't be true, can it? Why aren't any of the big sports writers writing about this?

John Henry owns the Globe, and nobody in this town is willing to write anything negative about Henry and his cynical dealings. He has turned the Red Sox into his own personal ATM machine, which has become his primary source of income after the failure of his hedge fund. On top of that, he has made close to a billion dollars in the book value of the Red Sox.

John Henry is the only winner here.* Everyone else, the players, the fans, even the subservient front office, are all the losers. The team has been systematically stripped of its talent all for the purpose of staying under the tax cap.

I was just banned from soxprospects by Chris Hatfield for taking this view. I understand... Nobody wants to hear this. But this view is thoroughly researched and heavily backed by analytical data. I'm sorry. Blame John Henry.

*And to a lesser extent, the minority owners.

ADD: I don't intend to respond to comments below. I expect there won't be general interest in a discussion of whether the Red Sox spin machine is manipulating the fans and the media, as my analysis claims.

If you are interested in more details or have any questions, please PM me. Thanks.
You're a dingleberry
 

Tyrone Biggums

nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2006
6,424
Thanks for the article. I really enjoyed it. But I think you have it all, and I do mean, all completely wrong. Couldn't be wronger. I mean that as someone who likes your thinking and analysis, but I believe you have been spun by the Red Sox spin machine.

Not sure where to start, but the Red Sox are not better for the trades that Dombrowski made. Kimbrel was a disappointment, Kelly and Kopech would have been better.

Carson Smith, elbow surgery. Pomeranz, fell off a cliff with arm inflammation. And now by far the worst trade in Red Sox history, Chris Sale with a sea of red flags around his arm after the worst year of his career in 2016. Sale's 2016 is not an upgrade over the healthy Wright, or the ERod who should break out this year, who will be our 3 and 4 pitchers, and Sale may very well be worse than they are.

Which means Sale is at best a modest upgrade over Pomeranz or Buchholz, or the 7-8 pitchers, who don't throw that many innings, and even fewer innings in the post-season.

Dombrowski has become an easy mark for opposing GMs. He's now traded away several hundred million dollars in excess value for essentially nothing. He is a complete and utter bust as a GM.

You can argue that the Red Sox are coming into their window of being competitive, but that is also spin from the Red Sox. In fact, they just lost the heart of their order, Big Papi. Lineup production is heavily dependent on having a Papi-like bat. Without him, that lineup suffers greatly. If they really wanted to take advantage of the next few years, they needed to bring in the biggest bat available, ideally Miguel Cabrera, to make up for the loss of Papi.

If they really wanted to maximize their opportunity, they should have just gone out and spent money, and blown up the luxury tax cap. The penalties, if any, would not have hit for years. By then this window of talent would have already won them three or four titles.

You all know in your hearts I'm right. But because the Red Sox spin machine is so powerful, you have a kind of cognitive dissonance about this. It can't be true, can it? Why aren't any of the big sports writers writing about this?

John Henry owns the Globe, and nobody in this town is willing to write anything negative about Henry and his cynical dealings. He has turned the Red Sox into his own personal ATM machine, which has become his primary source of income after the failure of his hedge fund. On top of that, he has made close to a billion dollars in the book value of the Red Sox.

John Henry is the only winner here.* Everyone else, the players, the fans, even the subservient front office, are all the losers. The team has been systematically stripped of its talent all for the purpose of staying under the tax cap.

I was just banned from soxprospects by Chris Hatfield for taking this view. I understand... Nobody wants to hear this. But this view is thoroughly researched and heavily backed by analytical data. I'm sorry. Blame John Henry.

*And to a lesser extent, the minority owners.

ADD: I don't intend to respond to comments below. I expect there won't be general interest in a discussion of whether the Red Sox spin machine is manipulating the fans and the media, as my analysis claims.

If you are interested in more details or have any questions, please PM me. Thanks.
Kopech is 2 years away. I think Wright is in the rotation to start the year but come on. There is no metric that supports your claim of Wright having a better 2016 than Chris Sale. Or that Kopech/Kelly would have been better in Boston last year than Kimbrel. This post sounds a lot like one particular poster I think his name was kungfuizzy on Soxprospects who gave this board some serious comedy last week. So I appreciate the laughs.

It's not the Sox spin machine. Some people hated the Pomeranz deal and I was one of those. Some people hated the Carson Smith deal. I was not one of them. Wade Miley is not a really good pitcher. You also can't hold injury against the player. Some people hate the Sale deal. I think it's painful but necessary to take the next step.
 

jimbobim

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2012
1,558
Thanks for the article. I really enjoyed it. But I think you have it all, and I do mean, all completely wrong. Couldn't be wronger. I mean that as someone who likes your thinking and analysis, but I believe you have been spun by the Red Sox spin machine.

Not sure where to start, but the Red Sox are not better for the trades that Dombrowski made. Kimbrel was a disappointment, Kelly and Kopech would have been better.

Carson Smith, elbow surgery. Pomeranz, fell off a cliff with arm inflammation. And now by far the worst trade in Red Sox history, Chris Sale with a sea of red flags around his arm after the worst year of his career in 2016. Sale's 2016 is not an upgrade over the healthy Wright, or the ERod who should break out this year, who will be our 3 and 4 pitchers, and Sale may very well be worse than they are.

Which means Sale is at best a modest upgrade over Pomeranz or Buchholz, or the 7-8 pitchers, who don't throw that many innings, and even fewer innings in the post-season.

Dombrowski has become an easy mark for opposing GMs. He's now traded away several hundred million dollars in excess value for essentially nothing. He is a complete and utter bust as a GM..

If you are interested in more details or have any questions, please PM me. Thanks.
Literally my mind is blown. You know it is bad when you get banned by Soxprospects where the prospect love is at the highest.

Re DD being the easy mark in the room and losing Ortiz being the argument against the window ? What exactly is the team supposed to do with the cheap years of Mookie X and to a lesser extent JBJ ? In fact I think there's a compelling arg to be made that "yeah you may regret some of the prospects DD trades but he's not going to blow cash like Theo or Ben did". Rather than pay for projection in CC Castillo DD paid for the top of the line in Price. Now the cash for future projection worked for Porcello and Pedroia but it is interesting to see that Sale is a big time hedge against some type of regression from Rick.

Bottom line ? The prospect industry has grown wild. Moncada is the jewel Hanley type but the obvious goal here is a 2007 like run. May it be so.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
I think Sale is more a hedge against Price opting out. They have made it likely that one of the two will be in Boston for the long haul. Either Price opts out (probably likely) and that money is freed up to extend Sale or Price doesn't opt out and they let Sale hit FA and take a comp round pick for him when he goes.

It's, of course, possible that Price opts out and neither he nor Sale are signed with that money, but they've given themselves an opportunity negotiate with two aces exclusively over the course of two off seasons to try and keep one of those guys in town beyond 2019. It also ensures that they will have at least one guy of that caliber during the last arb year of the front end of the current young core (Bogaerts and JBJ).
 

absintheofmalaise

too many flowers
Dope
SoSH Member
Mar 16, 2005
23,347
The gran facenda
Thanks for the article. I really enjoyed it. But I think you have it all, and I do mean, all completely wrong. Couldn't be wronger. I mean that as someone who likes your thinking and analysis, but I believe you have been spun by the Red Sox spin machine.

Not sure where to start, but the Red Sox are not better for the trades that Dombrowski made. Kimbrel was a disappointment, Kelly and Kopech would have been better.

Carson Smith, elbow surgery. Pomeranz, fell off a cliff with arm inflammation. And now by far the worst trade in Red Sox history, Chris Sale with a sea of red flags around his arm after the worst year of his career in 2016. Sale's 2016 is not an upgrade over the healthy Wright, or the ERod who should break out this year, who will be our 3 and 4 pitchers, and Sale may very well be worse than they are.

Which means Sale is at best a modest upgrade over Pomeranz or Buchholz, or the 7-8 pitchers, who don't throw that many innings, and even fewer innings in the post-season.

Dombrowski has become an easy mark for opposing GMs. He's now traded away several hundred million dollars in excess value for essentially nothing. He is a complete and utter bust as a GM.

You can argue that the Red Sox are coming into their window of being competitive, but that is also spin from the Red Sox. In fact, they just lost the heart of their order, Big Papi. Lineup production is heavily dependent on having a Papi-like bat. Without him, that lineup suffers greatly. If they really wanted to take advantage of the next few years, they needed to bring in the biggest bat available, ideally Miguel Cabrera, to make up for the loss of Papi.

If they really wanted to maximize their opportunity, they should have just gone out and spent money, and blown up the luxury tax cap. The penalties, if any, would not have hit for years. By then this window of talent would have already won them three or four titles.

You all know in your hearts I'm right. But because the Red Sox spin machine is so powerful, you have a kind of cognitive dissonance about this. It can't be true, can it? Why aren't any of the big sports writers writing about this?

John Henry owns the Globe, and nobody in this town is willing to write anything negative about Henry and his cynical dealings. He has turned the Red Sox into his own personal ATM machine, which has become his primary source of income after the failure of his hedge fund. On top of that, he has made close to a billion dollars in the book value of the Red Sox.

John Henry is the only winner here.* Everyone else, the players, the fans, even the subservient front office, are all the losers. The team has been systematically stripped of its talent all for the purpose of staying under the tax cap.

I was just banned from soxprospects by Chris Hatfield for taking this view. I understand... Nobody wants to hear this. But this view is thoroughly researched and heavily backed by analytical data. I'm sorry. Blame John Henry.

*And to a lesser extent, the minority owners.

ADD: I don't intend to respond to comments below. I expect there won't be general interest in a discussion of whether the Red Sox spin machine is manipulating the fans and the media, as my analysis claims.

If you are interested in more details or have any questions, please PM me. Thanks.
I think we would all be very interested in seeing the data that made you reach the conclusions you have reached. Unless you are willing to post the data here, not in a PM, then don't bother posting here again. That's how this message boarding thing works. Post opinion/analysis > people question opinion/analysis > post data to back up opinion/analysis > conversation ensues!
 

Tyrone Biggums

nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2006
6,424
I think we would all be very interested in seeing the data that made you reach the conclusions you have reached. Unless you are willing to post the data here, not in a PM, then don't bother posting here again. That's how this message boarding thing works. Post opinion/analysis > people question opinion/analysis > post data to back up opinion/analysis > conversation ensues!
Reading his post again. I'm stunned I skipped his point of the Globe not being negative about the Sox. Perhaps he has forgotten that Shank is still on the payroll and he's made his living off the negativity surrounding the Sox. I don't know if DD is the best GM for this team but I can't be mad about what he gave up for Sale. Or that he used money to sign Price. Sure, the Pomeranz deal was a misstep but signing Groome made it a little more bearable. The kid was supposed to be the #1 pick last year and dropped to the Sox. They got arguably the #1 overall pick per talent to sign last year.

Benetendi is the safer prospect over Moncada. I'm glad he was kept.
 

shaggydog2000

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 5, 2007
11,483
Sorry, it took me a bit to physically push my eyeballs back into my head after reading that post. Serial failure Joe Kelly and kid in A ball Michael Kopech would have somehow combined to be a better idea as a closer last offseason than a guy who had been one of the top closers for the previous 5 years. One who was an all star and top ten in Cy Young voting 4 out of those 5 years. That guy.

This dude is next level.
 
Jun 24, 2016
35
I think we would all be very interested in seeing the data that made you reach the conclusions you have reached. Unless you are willing to post the data here, not in a PM, then don't bother posting here again. That's how this message boarding thing works. Post opinion/analysis > people question opinion/analysis > post data to back up opinion/analysis > conversation ensues!
Thanks for the invite. I just wanted to be considerate of others who seemed to say, or perhaps explicitly said, that they did not want me posting here.

I had also intended just to comment on Damien's otherwise excellent article, in the hope that we might find some common ground against a common enemy, the robber baron Henry who sells off the children of the serfs, while creating a myth that as nobility he must do this for the good of all.

Ok, you get the point. They are still going all medieval on our asses.

Some of the theory is I think common ground. Dombrowski has been fooled into trading for pitchers who had red flags, Kimbrel (velocity was down [or more hittable]); Carson Smith (same); Pomeranz (limited innings). Each time, whether randomly or not, the pitcher was a disappointment.

Now there are red flags aplenty around Sale, after a season in which he had a declining K rate, a trend of dropping velocity, a number of missed starts for elbow soreness, and was hit hard, with his worst xFIP of his career [arguably hurt by poor framing].

Wright through August 10 was actually better at run prevention and innings per start than Sale. Not to be a smart ass, just saying. Don't hate the messenger.

Next, say what you will about trading away prospects who are ranked in the top 10 to top 25, but pointofpittsburgh has a spreadsheet that says you will get burnt, when you play with that fire. Law of random numbers says they simply can't trade all these top rated prospects without giving up several hundred million dollars in excess value. It will come back to haunt them.

OK, I'm guessing I still have most of you (or at least some of you?) on board.

Now for the controversy. Why the Red Sox should blow up the tax cap and go for it by spending money. Here's how I think about it: What will the other teams all be doing? They will all be trying to get under the tax cap. Creating what? (I ask myself.) Value for those who take the other side of that trade!

Miggy is a good example. A fangraphs article shows that Miggy has excess value in that contract over the next 4-5 years. Right when the Sox need it most. (The issue arises at the end of the contract when there is an $8M buyout in his age 40 year.)

Tigers might see this as a salary "dump" to get under the cap.

But for the Red Sox, lineup production has been shown to be heavily dependent on having a high-ISO high-OBP platoon-independent bat like Miggy's. It makes the rest of the lineup better. Why did we lose in the post-season? The bats went cold. Why? Because Papi's bat went cold. (Probably because his feet were killing him.)

OK, and yes, also, Coco f***ing Crisp. Yeah, that too.

Full stop. From here I start to go off into places where I suspect I lose many of you. Collusion by the team owners, captured player reps, media manipulation. I will leave those for another day, or perhaps never, if you prefer.

EDIT: to add links to some I hope interesting references.
 
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shaggydog2000

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 5, 2007
11,483
Thanks for the invite. I just wanted to be considerate of others who seemed to say, or perhaps explicitly said, that they did not want me posting here.

I had also intended just to comment on Damien's otherwise excellent article, in the hope that we might find some common ground against a common enemy, the robber baron Henry who sells off the children of the serfs, while creating a myth that as nobility he must do this for the good of all.

Ok, you get the point. They are still going all medieval on our asses.

Some of the theory is I think common ground. Dombrowski has been fooled into trading for pitchers who had red flags, Kimbrel (velocity was down); Carson Smith (same); Pomeranz (limited innings). Each time, whether randomly or not, the pitcher was a disappointment.

Now there are red flags aplenty around Sale, after a season in which he had a declining K rate, a trend of dropping velocity, a number of missed starts for elbow soreness, and was hit hard, with his worst xFIP of his career.

Wright through August 10 was actually better at run prevention and innings per start than Sale. Not to be a smart ass, just saying. Don't hate the messenger.

Next, say what you will about trading away prospects who are ranked in the top 10 to top 25, but pointofpittsburgh has a spreadsheet that says you will get burnt, when you play with that fire. Law of random numbers says they simply can't trade all these top rated prospects without giving up several hundred million dollars in excess value. It will come back to haunt them.

OK, I'm guessing I still have most of you (or at least some of you?) on board.

Now for the controversy. Why the Red Sox should blow up the tax cap and go for it by spending money. Here's how I think about it: What will the other teams all be doing? They will all be trying to get under the tax cap. Creating what? (I ask myself.) Value for those who take the other side of that trade!

Miggy is a good example. A fangraphs article shows that Miggy has excess value in that contract over the next 4-5 years. Right when the Sox need it most. (The issue arises at the end of the contract when there is an $8M buyout in his age 40 year.)

Tigers might see this as a salary "dump" to get under the cap.

But for the Red Sox, lineup production has been shown to be heavily dependent on having a high-ISO platoon-independent bat like Miggy's. It makes the rest of the lineup better. Why did we lose in the post-season? The bats went cold. Why? Because Papi's bat went cold. (Probably because his feet were killing him.)

OK, and yes, also, Coco f***ing Crisp. Yeah, that too.

Full stop. From here I start to go off into places where I suspect I lose many of you. Collusion by the team owners, captured player reps, media manipulation. I will leave those for another day, or perhaps never, if you prefer.
Your response includes references to evidence, but contains no actual evidence. Show your work.