Chris Sale to Boston for Moncada, Kopech, & 2 Prospects

Devizier

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I still don't get what people are hoping for in a Pomeranz, Buchholz, etc. trade.

The team is constructed to win now.

With the uncertainty in the rotation, the players pencilled in as the sixth or seventh starters might pitch more than 100 innings this season.

It's not like there isn't a *recent* precedence for this.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I still don't get what people are hoping for in a Pomeranz, Buchholz, etc. trade.

The team is constructed to win now.

With the uncertainty in the rotation, the players pencilled in as the sixth or seventh starters might pitch more than 100 innings this season.

It's not like there isn't a *recent* precedence for this.
What uncertainty in the rotation? Is it uncertainty about the $200M man who threw 220+ innings last year, the newly acquired ace who also threw 220+ innings last year, or the Cy Young award winner who threw 220+ innings last year?

That's 60% of the rotation that feels pretty damn solid. Now they have four more guys for essentially three spots (2 in the rotation, 1 swing man). The only reason to hold on to everyone is if you're anticipating someone getting hurt. That's of course a distinct possibility, but if everyone's healthy on Opening Day, they've got a problem. They can't realistically stash two starters in the bullpen. Only one of these guys can be stashed in the minors, and he's probably the best of the bunch. Something has to give.

I don't think people are clamoring for a trade, they're expecting it will have to happen and speculating on how it goes down.
 

JimD

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How many of us regret the Sox giving up Hanley to get Beckett?
I don't. I suppose Theo never trades Saturn Balls to the Reds if he doesn't have Beckett and maybe he goes and gets a premium arm, but otherwise I'm not sure the resulting pitching staff with Arroyo is strong enough to win the 2007 championship and get to game 7 of the 2008 ALCS, even with Hanley's additional offensive production.
 

nvalvo

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What uncertainty in the rotation? Is it uncertainty about the $200M man who threw 220+ innings last year, the newly acquired ace who also threw 220+ innings last year, or the Cy Young award winner who threw 220+ innings last year?
The last team with three pitchers to throw 220 IP was the 2011Angels. The rotation — or really, the top three: Haren, Santana and Weaver — was the only thing good about the team, and they still won 86. Santana threw 228 2/3 IP of 3.38 ERA and was under .500. They had three starting position players with OBPs under .300.

(NB the inauspicious dawning of the Mike Trout era with 135 PA of a .672 OPS.)

Before that, I'm not sure.

The 2017 Boston Red Sox will be a much better rounded team than the 2011 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
 

Devizier

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That's 60% of the rotation that feels pretty damn solid.
Those players are projected to throw 615 innings next year. That leaves, optimistically, ~360 starters' innings to be covered by the remaining spots in the rotation.

Even the most optimistic projections don't peg back-end starters for 180-inning years, and for good reason. Just this year, the fourth and fifth most frequent starters for the Red Sox covered 116 and 107 innings, respectively. I think it would be pretty optimistic to expect that to change very much. A straight four-way split between the back four starters on the roster for the remaining innings would be 90 apiece. We know that injury and/or performance will reduce their number naturally. So why force it?

Sixteen starts went to Joe Kelly, Henry Owens, Sean O'Sullivan, and Roenis Elias this past season. Those starters gave up 61 runs in 69 innings, which is fucking terrible, as you might know. This is actually not a whole lot worse than replacement (-0.5 by fWAR), so it's not like you'd expect much better by dredging the waiver wire.

Again, I don't see any potential windfall that the Sox are going to get by trading Pomeranz (bete noir du jour) or Buchholz (always fits the bill). I haven't seen anyone drawing up a trade that makes sense, nor one that comes close to the value of having decent starters instead of replacement-level junk at the back end of the rotation.

As things are today, the Sox stand to lose some mop-up innings by the likes of Hembree et al. I don't see that as a major loss.
 
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Plympton91

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What uncertainty in the rotation? Is it uncertainty about the $200M man who threw 220+ innings last year, the newly acquired ace who also threw 220+ innings last year, or the Cy Young award winner who threw 220+ innings last year?

That's 60% of the rotation that feels pretty damn solid. Now they have four more guys for essentially three spots (2 in the rotation, 1 swing man). The only reason to hold on to everyone is if you're anticipating someone getting hurt.
.
two potential starters in the pen but fill
One thing I would like this team to have is a better lefthanded reliever than Robby Ross, moving him to the second-lefty role and getting rid of Abad with Scott in AAA. Either Pomeranz, who's done that job before, or Edro, who has the tools to be absolutely dominant in that role, could move to the "relief ace" role, with Wright in long relief. That would leave 5 starters, with two potential starters in the pen waiting for the opportunity from injury or ineffectiveness.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I haven't seen anyone drawing up a trade that makes sense, nor one that comes close to the value of having decent starters instead of replacement-level junk at the back end of the rotation..
The problem is there are nowhere close to enough innings in the bullpen to keep two long relievers stretched out enough that they can jump to the rotation if needed. I don't think anyone will deny that Buchholz or Wright or Pomeranz are a better pitcher than Hembree or whoever else might be in the mop-up role. But how effective can those guys be as starters if while they're not in the rotation, they're hardly pitching at all?

That's the point I keep making. Stashing two of those guys in the pen means you're turning one of them into a short reliever rather than an extra starter. The bullpen might be deeper/better because of it, but you're not necessarily maintaining rotational depth.
 

grimshaw

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two potential starters in the pen but fill
One thing I would like this team to have is a better lefthanded reliever than Robby Ross, moving him to the second-lefty role and getting rid of Abad with Scott in AAA. Either Pomeranz, who's done that job before, or Edro, who has the tools to be absolutely dominant in that role, could move to the "relief ace" role, with Wright in long relief. That would leave 5 starters, with two potential starters in the pen waiting for the opportunity from injury or ineffectiveness.
Thornburg's your huckleberry. .130 BA with 4XBH against all year.
Honestly once Smith is back, you're talking about him, Kelly, Thornburg and Kimbrel pitching the bulk of the late innings, none of whom are likely getting lifted mid inning.

Ross' highest leverage outings are going to be facing lefties in the 6th or 7th or when the other guys are spent. Not really a pen that needs a specialist.
 

nvalvo

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Thornburg's your huckleberry. .130 BA with 4XBH against all year.
Honestly once Smith is back, you're talking about him, Kelly, Thornburg and Kimbrel pitching the bulk of the late innings, none of whom are likely getting lifted mid inning.

Ross' highest leverage outings are going to be facing lefties in the 6th or 7th or when the other guys are spent. Not really a pen that needs a specialist.
Also, the best thing Dombrowski's done for the pen is to acquire three starters who, health allowing, can be expected to surpass 200 IP. Since Sale became a full-timer in 2012, he's averaged 6.8 IP per start and 203 IP per year.

(Price 6.7, 209; Porcello 6.0, 183, may have just broken out.)
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Those players are projected to throw 615 innings next year. That leaves, optimistically, ~360 starters' innings to be covered by the remaining spots in the rotation.

Even the most optimistic projections don't peg back-end starters for 180-inning years, and for good reason. Just this year, the fourth and fifth most frequent starters for the Red Sox covered 116 and 107 innings, respectively. I think it would be pretty optimistic to expect that to change very much. A straight four-way split between the back four starters on the roster for the remaining innings would be 90 apiece. We know that injury and/or performance will reduce their number naturally. So why force it?
Because you can't survive with a 5 man bullpen. If you are splitting starts equally among the 4 you are chewing up to slots in the pen to do it. You'd burn out your pen before the all star break. Even if assume that one of the three will always be on the DL a 6 man pen still isn't enough to keep the rest fresh. Hell, a 7 man pen is often not enough and teams end up having to burn options and abuse the shuttle to get through a week.

Dedicating two bullpen slots to starters who you intend to keep starters isn't possible with current roster restrictions. If the new CBA had added a 26th man, you might be able to juggle it. Otherwise you are just converting at least one starter to fulltime relief and are wasting that value anyway.
 

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If we had 6 outfielders without options, or surplus at any other position, I'd be suggesting trading them as well. Keeping as much pitching talent as possible is a good idea, especially when factoring in injury rates. We all agree on that, I'm sure. But I think the do not trade a starter camp are just not factoring in how hard it would be to keep all those starters on the roster without negatively impacting them. Either Pomeranz or Edro would have their development set back by being in the pen or the minors, or in the best case Buchholz and Wright aren't stretched out and ready to be used as starters when you need them. And you are possibly ignoring better bullpen options, or losing bullpen arms because you didn't have enough roster spots to keep them all. If someone is advocating waiting until spring training to make the trade just in case there is a spring injury, then I can understand that viewpoint. But planning to go into the season with seven guys who are starters on your MLB roster is just a bad plan.
I think there is a significant difference between going into the season with 7 starters and going into Spring Training with 7 starters. Between the day that pitchers and catchers report and Opening Day, either of the following things could happen that make this whole discussion moot:
  1. An injury (or two) to one (or two) of the 7 thereby necessitating the need for the 6th (or 7th) starter to become part of the regular rotation.
  2. An injury or general ineffectiveness of the starting rotations of any one of the 29 teams (or more realistically, about 25 other teams, as there are some teams who the Sox simply wouldn't trade with).
The latter is so likely, that there would be a good chance that the Sox would actually have a bidding war on their hands for teams to try to pry a Pomeranz or Wright or Buchholz out of the Sox' hands.
 

DJnVa

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Even the most optimistic projections don't peg back-end starters for 180-inning years, and for good reason. Just this year, the fourth and fifth most frequent starters for the Red Sox covered 116 and 107 innings, respectively. I think it would be pretty optimistic to expect that to change very much..
If they keep Pomeranz, and it seems they will, why wouldn't you pencil him in for the 170+ IP that he logged this season?
 

shaggydog2000

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I think there is a significant difference between going into the season with 7 starters and going into Spring Training with 7 starters. Between the day that pitchers and catchers report and Opening Day, either of the following things could happen that make this whole discussion moot:
  1. An injury (or two) to one (or two) of the 7 thereby necessitating the need for the 6th (or 7th) starter to become part of the regular rotation.
  2. An injury or general ineffectiveness of the starting rotations of any one of the 29 teams (or more realistically, about 25 other teams, as there are some teams who the Sox simply wouldn't trade with).
The latter is so likely, that there would be a good chance that the Sox would actually have a bidding war on their hands for teams to try to pry a Pomeranz or Wright or Buchholz out of the Sox' hands.
I can definitely understand an argument for waiting until training camp, although if a team made a great offer for Buchholz right now, you'd kind of have to think about it, right? Especially if what you want back is a piece you want to have while constructing the rest of your roster. But I think they are more likely to add prospects or depth guys from trading a pitcher, so that would make timing matter less.
 

Saints Rest

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I can definitely understand an argument for waiting until training camp, although if a team made a great offer for Buchholz right now, you'd kind of have to think about it, right? Especially if what you want back is a piece you want to have while constructing the rest of your roster. But I think they are more likely to add prospects or depth guys from trading a pitcher, so that would make timing matter less.
Oh if anyone makes a blow you away offer today, you probably take it.

I was more responding to the idea that the Sox A) are screwed if they approach the season with all 7 on the roster and thus B) have no leverage in a trade
 

Devizier

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If they keep Pomeranz, and it seems they will, why wouldn't you pencil him in for the 170+ IP that he logged this season?
And short of another pinch running stint, I'm not sure why you wouldn't peg Wright for at least the 150+ he put in last year.
Because their effectiveness tailed off later in the season?

I don't know, you can't project how unplanned events will happen. But I'm not going to bet against them happening.

It seems like every preseason we have the same conversation about how the Sox have too many starters and it never seems to be true by the season's end.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Because their effectiveness tailed off later in the season?

I don't know, you can't project how unplanned events will happen. But I'm not going to bet against them happening.

It seems like every preseason we have the same conversation about how the Sox have too many starters and it never seems to be true by the season's end.
Which is probably fair, but I'm failing to remember the last time we had three legit 200-220 innings horses that are top shelf. It's certainly valid to have concerns over needing backups, but it's not realistic to keep this set of seven on the 25 man roster. Move at least one and get someone better than Owens or Johnson that has options and can be moved up and down. Or get prospects and make a side deal.
 

Rasputin

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And short of another pinch running stint, I'm not sure why you wouldn't peg Wright for at least the 150+ he put in last year.
Because it's hard to deliver 150+ innings out of the bullpen.

It seems obvious to me that--health allowing--there are four locks for the rotation: Sale, Price, Porcello, and Rodriguez. That means one of Pomeranz, Wright, and Buchholz fills the last spot and the others are either in the bullpen or traded. This front office has indicated rather strongly that they care more about putting the best player in the most prominent position and less about stockpiling resources than the previous administration. I think that means the best pitcher gets the starting slot and I think that's Pomeranz.

I also think Buchholz is pretty clearly the most optimal trade bait. He costs the most while being relatively cheap and he has what is probably the most upside and the worst downside. That screams trade bait to me.

That means Wright goes the bullpen as a swing man. I think that offers some tremendous advantages. Adjusting to facing the knuckler for one at bat sandwiched between two traditional pitchers has to be a pair of tough adjustments.
 

dhappy42

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Because it's hard to deliver 150+ innings out of the bullpen.

It seems obvious to me that--health allowing--there are four locks for the rotation: Sale, Price, Porcello, and Rodriguez. That means one of Pomeranz, Wright, and Buchholz fills the last spot and the others are either in the bullpen or traded. This front office has indicated rather strongly that they care more about putting the best player in the most prominent position and less about stockpiling resources than the previous administration. I think that means the best pitcher gets the starting slot and I think that's Pomeranz.

I also think Buchholz is pretty clearly the most optimal trade bait. He costs the most while being relatively cheap and he has what is probably the most upside and the worst downside. That screams trade bait to me...
Agree, but what's the hurry? Unless a team hard up for a starting pitcher is willing to overpay for Buch, it makes sense to hold onto him at least until opening day because injuries happen.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Because it's hard to deliver 150+ innings out of the bullpen.

It seems obvious to me that--health allowing--there are four locks for the rotation: Sale, Price, Porcello, and Rodriguez. That means one of Pomeranz, Wright, and Buchholz fills the last spot and the others are either in the bullpen or traded. This front office has indicated rather strongly that they care more about putting the best player in the most prominent position and less about stockpiling resources than the previous administration. I think that means the best pitcher gets the starting slot and I think that's Pomeranz.

I also think Buchholz is pretty clearly the most optimal trade bait. He costs the most while being relatively cheap and he has what is probably the most upside and the worst downside. That screams trade bait to me.

That means Wright goes the bullpen as a swing man. I think that offers some tremendous advantages. Adjusting to facing the knuckler for one at bat sandwiched between two traditional pitchers has to be a pair of tough adjustments.
I agree wholeheartedly with all that. But disagree that the previous post I responded to that worried about getting innings of the back end slots and that being justification for keeping all seven.

If Wright is on the team, there's no reason to think he can't be relied on for a significant workload if called upon. But yes, he's the likely swing man. And I'd go as far to say Pomeranz is a rotation lock, but I won't go there right now.
 

jasail

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Agree, but what's the hurry? Unless a team hard up for a starting pitcher is willing to overpay for Buch, it makes sense to hold onto him at least until opening day because injuries happen.
Agreed. I think you only move a starter between now and camp if you get an offer you can't refuse. They should hedge against injury until it is not practicable to do so.

I'm also not sure the Sox lose leverage by having one too many starters as camp winds down. They can always option EdRo if they absolutely need to. Also, the starting pitching market is a sellers market; either a team needs a starter and is willing to give up a pieces to get a deal done or they are not. I don't think its likely that the Sox are forced to take a less than market value deal because they have too many pitchers.
 

Rasputin

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Agree, but what's the hurry? Unless a team hard up for a starting pitcher is willing to overpay for Buch, it makes sense to hold onto him at least until opening day because injuries happen.
There is zero hurry. I think the right way to approach this is to let everyone know Buch is available then wait. If a great offer floats by, jump on it, but otherwise wait until the last week of spring training. Someone is going to turn up with a starter hurt and it might be us.

I agree wholeheartedly with all that. But disagree that the previous post I responded to that worried about getting innings of the back end slots and that being justification for keeping all seven.

If Wright is on the team, there's no reason to think he can't be relied on for a significant workload if called upon. But yes, he's the likely swing man. And I'd go as far to say Pomeranz is a rotation lock, but I won't go there right now.
I am also in full agreement with this. I think Pomeranz is better than Wright and more reliable than Buchholz and that makes him the odds on choice.

The one caveat I have is that I really would like a more reliable lefty in the bullpen. If they decided to make Pomeranz a lefty relief ace, I wouldn't be fully on board, but I wouldn't be fully off board either.
 

InsideTheParker

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And what do you base this on?
I will not be able to give you figures. I have a strong memory of many games when many Soshers were wondering why Ross was not used or not used earlier. He was described by rembrat and others as only good for "garbage" innings, but more often than not when he was called on he did a good job. Perhaps someone else can provide examples.
 

RoyalOrange

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Because it's hard to deliver 150+ innings out of the bullpen.

It seems obvious to me that--health allowing--there are four locks for the rotation: Sale, Price, Porcello, and Rodriguez. That means one of Pomeranz, Wright, and Buchholz fills the last spot and the others are either in the bullpen or traded. This front office has indicated rather strongly that they care more about putting the best player in the most prominent position and less about stockpiling resources than the previous administration. I think that means the best pitcher gets the starting slot and I think that's Pomeranz.

I also think Buchholz is pretty clearly the most optimal trade bait. He costs the most while being relatively cheap and he has what is probably the most upside and the worst downside. That screams trade bait to me.

That means Wright goes the bullpen as a swing man. I think that offers some tremendous advantages. Adjusting to facing the knuckler for one at bat sandwiched between two traditional pitchers has to be a pair of tough adjustments.
Can I ask why you consider Rodriguez a lock over Pomeranz? Honestly just curious, would like to hear the logic since it seems to be generally accepted.
 

Saints Rest

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Which is probably fair, but I'm failing to remember the last time we had three legit 200-220 innings horses that are top shelf. It's certainly valid to have concerns over needing backups, but it's not realistic to keep this set of seven on the 25 man roster. Move at least one and get someone better than Owens or Johnson that has options and can be moved up and down. Or get prospects and make a side deal.
2004, I think.
By this time in that pre-season, they had just acquired Schilling, so they had a rotation lined up of:
  • Pedro, coming off a 2003 season with only 186 IP, but an ERA+ of 231.
  • Schill, coming off a 2003 season with only 168 IP, but an ERA+ of 156 and every expectation of getting back to 220 IP.
  • Tim Wakefield, 201 IP, 114 ERA+
  • Derek Lowe, 202 IP, 105 ERA+
And in 2004, all 4 pitched over 180 innings. And somehow, old Saturn Balls himself, Bronson Arroyo, added another 178 IP (after throwing only 17 and 27 the previous two years!).
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Because it's hard to deliver 150+ innings out of the bullpen.

It seems obvious to me that--health allowing--there are four locks for the rotation: Sale, Price, Porcello, and Rodriguez. That means one of Pomeranz, Wright, and Buchholz fills the last spot and the others are either in the bullpen or traded. This front office has indicated rather strongly that they care more about putting the best player in the most prominent position and less about stockpiling resources than the previous administration. I think that means the best pitcher gets the starting slot and I think that's Pomeranz.

I also think Buchholz is pretty clearly the most optimal trade bait. He costs the most while being relatively cheap and he has what is probably the most upside and the worst downside. That screams trade bait to me.

That means Wright goes the bullpen as a swing man. I think that offers some tremendous advantages. Adjusting to facing the knuckler for one at bat sandwiched between two traditional pitchers has to be a pair of tough adjustments.
I feel like there's a positive and negative outcome for every scenario for whoever the Sox keep. 1 will be traded, 1 will start, and 1 will go to the pen. All 3 are kind of even at this point with the only caveat of Eduardo Rodriguez potentially starting the year in Pawtucket which is probably the scenario that occurs if he struggles in ST and no trade happens. Wright profiles best as a starter. He's an innings eater and there is something to be said for saving this pen every 5th day.

Over the course of the season the need for a guy like Wright to pitch 3 + innings out of the pen will hopefully be less and less. So I would take Wright and slot him at the 4. Throwing right handed and having success in the AL East is a deciding factor combined with durability. So that leaves us with Rodriguez, Buchholz, and Pomeranz. One of Buchholz or Pomeranz needs to be dealt if you think Eduardo makes the rotation. A few things come to mind here. One is the luxury tax. The Sox have been rumored to want to stay under and moving Buchholz would help greatly. There also is zero chance of resigning him next year. The question now becomes do you take what you can get for Buchholz or move Pomeranz since he has more value? Pomeranz could still return a nice package of prospects while Clay would give a semi minimal return. I don't think you could get someone like Edwin Diaz for Pomeranz but some B/B minus guys. Clay however has shown when he's healthy and right he's a #2. So I'd buck logic and keep Clay thus moving Pomeranz for prospects. I would also look at making Eduardo the long man to not tax his arm with an eye of moving him in the rotation next season. Provided of course he does well in spring training.

To sum it up I would put Wright and Buchholz in the rotation, trade Pomeranz and move EdRo to the pen as the long guy to save his arm long term.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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2004, I think.
By this time in that pre-season, they had just acquired Schilling, so they had a rotation lined up of:
  • Pedro, coming off a 2003 season with only 186 IP, but an ERA+ of 231.
  • Schill, coming off a 2003 season with only 168 IP, but an ERA+ of 156 and every expectation of getting back to 220 IP.
  • Tim Wakefield, 201 IP, 114 ERA+
  • Derek Lowe, 202 IP, 105 ERA+
And in 2004, all 4 pitched over 180 innings. And somehow, old Saturn Balls himself, Bronson Arroyo, added another 178 IP (after throwing only 17 and 27 the previous two years!).
Don't forget Arroyo was a starter in the minors during those previous two years (150 and 143 IP), so it wasn't as if the 178 in 2004 was the gigantic leap you imply by quoting just his MLB numbers.

That 2004 rotation was as much of an anomaly as you're going to see in modern baseball. No one missed a start to injury all year. Aside from when they tried to shoehorn Byung-Hyun Kim into the rotation (3 starts at Arroyo's expense), only two others made a start all year: Abe Alvarez started one half of a mid-July double-header and Pedro Astacio started meaningless game 162.

Even that rotation I don't think went into the season with the 3 horses look that the 2017 team has. Pedro, while an ace, was hardly a 200+ inning guy at that point (3 years removed from his previous 200+ IP season). And I don't know if if Lowe or Wakefield quite fit the "top shelf" category. Lowe was coming off a down year (4.47 ERA, 1.46 WHIP). Wake was Wake. I don't think anyone was looking at them the same way we're looking at Porcello (a veritable ace in the #3 slot). But....it probably is the closest the team has come to duplicating the expectation level of the 2017 guys.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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From Fangraphs writer who used to be an executive for the Mariners, big analytics guy:

Some bonus thoughts on the Chris Sale deal. I consider Sale to be, believe it or not, underrated. He should have at least two Cy Young Awards on his mantle already. In fact, I would have given him a first-place vote this season. He does everything you could ever want a pitcher to do: miss bats, minimize free passes, and manage contact at a well above-average level. The only nit I can pick is that, for a great pitcher, he’s an ordinary athlete, a la Ben Sheets in his day. I’m not really sure how Sale would bounce back from a major injury at this stage of his career.

As for the other side of the deal, the White Sox obtained tremendous upside, especially in the persons of Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. Many consider Moncada the game’s foremost prospect. Upside-wise, that might in fact be true. There is real risk here, however. It was only 20 at-bats in his brief 2016 MLB debut, but 12 strikeouts? That’s an eye-catcher. It took him a little while to start cooking in his 2015 A-ball debut, but he’s been a freight train since. As for Kopech, it’s all about velocity and upside. What exactly is he, though? He’s pitched all of 134.2 innings as a pro, and has a portfolio dotted with missed time for all of the wrong reasons — i.e. injury and suspension. You can’t teach a repeatable 100-plus mph fastball, however.

One has to give the White Sox credit for swinging for the fences, but I prefer the Red Sox end of the deal. It isn’t every day that a superstar pitcher at the absolute top of his game — and at a very reasonable salary — becomes available. If you can add him without putting a huge long-term hole in your organizational depth, you do it. Not too many clubs could afford to move such a package, but the Red Sox could.
 

DJnVa

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I will not be able to give you figures. I have a strong memory of many games when many Soshers were wondering why Ross was not used or not used earlier. He was described by rembrat and others as only good for "garbage" innings, but more often than not when he was called on he did a good job. Perhaps someone else can provide examples.
Ross pitched better last season the higher the leverage:

Low: .711 OPS allowed (112 ABs)
Med: .593 OPS allowed (50 ABs)
High: .364 OPS allowed (43 ABs)
 

Saints Rest

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From Fangraphs writer who used to be an executive for the Mariners, big analytics guy:

Some bonus thoughts on the Chris Sale deal. I consider Sale to be, believe it or not, underrated. He should have at least two Cy Young Awards on his mantle already. In fact, I would have given him a first-place vote this season. He does everything you could ever want a pitcher to do: miss bats, minimize free passes, and manage contact at a well above-average level. The only nit I can pick is that, for a great pitcher, he’s an ordinary athlete, a la Ben Sheets in his day. I’m not really sure how Sale would bounce back from a major injury at this stage of his career.

As for the other side of the deal, the White Sox obtained tremendous upside, especially in the persons of Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. Many consider Moncada the game’s foremost prospect. Upside-wise, that might in fact be true. There is real risk here, however. It was only 20 at-bats in his brief 2016 MLB debut, but 12 strikeouts? That’s an eye-catcher. It took him a little while to start cooking in his 2015 A-ball debut, but he’s been a freight train since. As for Kopech, it’s all about velocity and upside. What exactly is he, though? He’s pitched all of 134.2 innings as a pro, and has a portfolio dotted with missed time for all of the wrong reasons — i.e. injury and suspension. You can’t teach a repeatable 100-plus mph fastball, however.

One has to give the White Sox credit for swinging for the fences, but I prefer the Red Sox end of the deal. It isn’t every day that a superstar pitcher at the absolute top of his game — and at a very reasonable salary — becomes available. If you can add him without putting a huge long-term hole in your organizational depth, you do it. Not too many clubs could afford to move such a package, but the Red Sox could.
Really? His concern is that Sale isn't a great athlete? We could blow out all the bandwidth on all the servers posting pictures of non-athletic, but great pitchers. And do great athletes have a magical ability to heal more than bad athletes?
 

Rasputin

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Can I ask why you consider Rodriguez a lock over Pomeranz? Honestly just curious, would like to hear the logic since it seems to be generally accepted.
I might not be the best one to ask since I think there's only a tiny sliver of difference between them. Basically, Pomeranz already has bullpen experience and Rodriguez is cost controlled longer.

Basically it comes down to this. By making the trades they have, the team has sacrificed a lot of longer term talent for the short term. Combined with the emphasis on putting the best player on the field rather than stockpiling talent, I think there's a small chance--maybe 1%--that the team decides to move a left-handed someone from the rotation to the bullpen so they can be situationally death on lefties while still having a chance against righties.

I think it's vastly more likely that the rotation will be Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, and Pomeranz with Buchholz traded and Wright as the swing guy than all other (non injury) options combined.
 

Rasputin

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I feel like there's a positive and negative outcome for every scenario for whoever the Sox keep.
That's kind of how life works.

Wright profiles best as a starter. He's an innings eater and there is something to be said for saving this pen every 5th day.
There are two things to be said about saving this bullpen every fifth day. One, they don't look to need it any more than most other bullpens, and oh yeah, Sale, Price, and Porcello are the guys who you're supposed to rely on to go deep into games.

Over the course of the season the need for a guy like Wright to pitch 3 + innings out of the pen will hopefully be less and less. So I would take Wright and slot him at the 4. Throwing right handed and having success in the AL East is a deciding factor combined with durability. So that leaves us with Rodriguez, Buchholz, and Pomeranz. One of Buchholz or Pomeranz needs to be dealt if you think Eduardo makes the rotation. A few things come to mind here. One is the luxury tax. The Sox have been rumored to want to stay under and moving Buchholz would help greatly. There also is zero chance of resigning him next year. The question now becomes do you take what you can get for Buchholz or move Pomeranz since he has more value? Pomeranz could still return a nice package of prospects while Clay would give a semi minimal return. I don't think you could get someone like Edwin Diaz for Pomeranz but some B/B minus guys. Clay however has shown when he's healthy and right he's a #2. So I'd buck logic and keep Clay thus moving Pomeranz for prospects. I would also look at making Eduardo the long man to not tax his arm with an eye of moving him in the rotation next season. Provided of course he does well in spring training.

To sum it up I would put Wright and Buchholz in the rotation, trade Pomeranz and move EdRo to the pen as the long guy to save his arm long term.
This is madness.

Who are the five best guys who are able to start? Who, if healthy, is the most likely to provide the most innings of the best production?

If you could guarantee we get Good Buchholz, he'd be the guy, easy, but you can't. When you look at it, I think it's pretty clear that Rodriguez and Pomeranz have an edge over the other guys. This team is not going to sacrifice major league talent to repkenish the farm system. If they were of that mindset, they wouldn't need to replenish the farm system. The only way they trade Pomeranz instead of Buchholz is if the deal is completely ridiculously off the charts good and those trades don't really happen often.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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This is madness.


If you could guarantee we get Good Buchholz, he'd be the guy, easy, but you can't. When you look at it, I think it's pretty clear that Rodriguez and Pomeranz have an edge over the other guys. This team is not going to sacrifice major league talent to repkenish the farm system. If they were of that mindset, they wouldn't need to replenish the farm system. The only way they trade Pomeranz instead of Buchholz is if the deal is completely ridiculously off the charts good and those trades don't really happen often.
How is it clear that Rodriguez has an edge over anyone? This narrative has been driven into the ground without a shred of evidence and while I agree he's the future he also has an option on his deal. He's not a lock to start the season in Boston due to last year. Pomeranz has experience an a long man and quite frankly failed to out perform Buchholz after he was acquired. EdRo had an awful season and will now need to prove himself again. Meanwhile Wright did nothing to cost himself a rotation spot. Right now Wright has the most security out of any of these 4. Again it wasn't really his fault that he was used as a pinch runner by Farrell.

If a move isn't made then I would think Rodriguez would have to out pitch Buchholz and Pomeranz for a spot. EdRo was awful and cost himself any luxury of having a spot guaranteed. I like Rodriguez too but I see more value in putting him as the long man while trying to figure out the majors if he cannot out pitch Clay or Pomeranz.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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EdRo had an awful season
That's oversimplifying. He had one crappy month, culminating in one truly horrific game. After that he was outstanding, with a 3.24 ERA and .613 OPS allowed in the second half. The season line looks bad, but it really was a Jekyll/Hyde year, and the two halves came in the right order.
 
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sean1562

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And steven wright had a 3.33 era over 150 innings. why are we discounting his season? he has been an above average mlb starter
 

Tyrone Biggums

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That's oversimplifying. He had one crappy month, culminating in one truly horrific game. After that he was outsanding, with a 3.24 ERA and .613 OPS allowed in the second half. The season line looks bad, but it really was a Jekyll/Hyde year, and the two halves came in the right order.
It comes down to who will help the MLB team more. I don't understand how you and Ras can say that EdRo is a better fit for the 2017 squad than Steven Wright given both seasons. Yes, he did turn it around slightly and I'm not saying he has to be in the pen or he's absolutely ticketed for Pawtucket. Simply that he needs to earn a rotation spot. Wright has more leeway given his 2016 season. If no trades happen then I would give the edge to Clay. Wright is the clear #4 currently.
 

Montana Fan

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And steven wright had a 3.33 era over 150 innings. why are we discounting his season? he has been an above average mlb starter
Yes. He carried the pitching in the first half. As a past SoSHer used to say, best 5 start. I think Wright will be one of the best 5 and will force his way into the rotation. Woulda loved to have him this past postseason.
 

MikeM

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It comes down to who will help the MLB team more. I don't understand how you and Ras can say that EdRo is a better fit for the 2017 squad than Steven Wright given both seasons. Yes, he did turn it around slightly and I'm not saying he has to be in the pen or he's absolutely ticketed for Pawtucket. Simply that he needs to earn a rotation spot. Wright has more leeway given his 2016 season. If no trades happen then I would give the edge to Clay. Wright is the clear #4 currently.
It wasn't just "slightly" better. As he pointed out Edro also had his better half come in the right order, which is key to looking at how things currently stand going into 2017.

Plus there is the whole 9 year age difference thing. This FO isn't going to sit on the 23yo promising kid, coming off a solid second half, on the min/maxy hope that Steven Wright has a slightly better overall season. Edro would need to have a really bad spring to even begin that discussion.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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It wasn't just "slightly" better. As he pointed out Edro also had his better half come in the right order, which is key to looking at how things currently stand going into 2017.

Plus there is the whole 9 year age difference thing. This FO isn't going to sit on the 23yo promising kid, coming off a solid second half, on the min/maxy hope that Steven Wright has a slightly better overall season. Edro would need to have a really bad spring to even begin that discussion.
Steven Wright was hurt the entire 2nd half. So you really can't judge him on what he didn't pitch or the starts he was rushed back for. I'm still trying to find a reason why EdRo is a lock for the rotation. All I'm saying is if he sucks in the spring you can throw him in the pen to preserve his arm long term or you send him to AAA. If Buchholz is right then I'm not sure he's one of the 5 best starters for 2017. If trades happen then this discussion will end up being silly. But he certainly has something to prove. I'm simply saying he needs to win a spot. If EdRo throws a 10 era in the spring and Buchholz Wright and Pomeranz all pitch well then it would be a detriment to the team to have him pitch over those three.

This isn't Henry Owens he's competing against. He's competing against Buchholz and 2 all stars from last year. Sure he got better but Buchholz was great down the stretch and Wright was great before getting hurt. The fact he's 23 and has options left actually supports that the team would look at sending him down if he bombs or just gets beaten out. The other three do not have options and have better major league track records.

I'm a big fan of Eduardo however expections should be that he'll eventually be a really good starter for the Sox if handled right.

Again, I'm still waiting for some type of numbers to prove that Wright would get bumped in favor of EdRo aside from the fact one is 23 and the other is 31. That shouldn't factor into the rotation plans. Best 5 guys start. Next best guy is the swing man. At 23 you're still developing as a player. All about what's best for development.
 
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Papelbon's Poutine

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Well, there is the whole "I can't pitch when it's hot because I sweat" thing to consider.

What's best for Eduardo's development is to be in the starting rotation, piling up innings and making improvements to carry forward. Buchholz has proven over ten years to never be able to be good and healthy at the same time. And he was atrocious for the majority of last year, to the point he couldn't even be trusted for medium leverage level bullpen work and was delegated to mop up duty. This isn't news. Deference should not be given to him at any juncture, certainly not for how he looked in a handful of starts.

Beyond that, Wright garnering an All Star nod means absolutely nothing with regards to what the rotation looks like going forward. That and a couple bucks gets him a cup of coffee and nothing more. His injury aside, the pixie dust had starting wearing off. It was a fun ride, but thinking he is going to be as consistent as Wakefield was - and it's tough even to call him consistent- is most likely a fool's errand.

They can't keep all seven. Unless they get a knockout offer for someone, Clay goes because he offers the least future value and is the least dependable. Wright goes to the pen because it's easier to stretch him out quick in case of break glass for fire and he's got the lower ceiling. And, yes, isn't reliable to even be able to throw his knuckleball in the heat.