AFC Playoffs into December
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"Oh noes! Rain!"
Oh noes! The weather and my little Carr hands!"Oh noes! Snow!"
Bert Breer: Last night was bad for the Patriots. They're one step closer to having to go into Arrowhead! Hot takez!
It's just such a dumb take. They didn't control their own destiny before last night - even winning out wouldn't guarantee the 1 seed. Now they can drop a game and still get the 1 seed - I am 95% sure that 13-3 wraps it up based on tiebreakers. Chances are they can even drop 2 games and get the 1 seed but that will be a little more dicey. The only way they have to go to KC is if KC wins more games than the Pats, and the Pats still have a 1 game lead pending MNF
Not so, if the pats are 13-3, that means they have 2 conference losses just like KC or Oakland, if they were 13-3. The Pats lose common opponents to Oakland because of Buffalo and if their third loss is to Denver or Baltimore.
If KC and NE are tied at 3 losses, I think NE is the #1 seed based on KC losing to Pittsburgh and Houston, two teams the Pats beat.
If it comes down to strength of victory, which seems unlikely, Oakland and KC will be ahead of the Patriots.
If KC and NE are tied at 3 losses, I think NE is the #1 seed based on KC losing to Pittsburgh and Houston, two teams the Pats beat.
If it comes down to strength of victory, which seems unlikely, Oakland and KC will be ahead of the Patriots.
Per the ESPN playoff machine, if NE and KC tie at 13-3, the Pats have the #1 seed and KC has the #2. However, if KC losses any of their remaining games and Oakland wins out, then NE needs to win out to hold onto the #1 seed.
Yeah its pretty dumb since the Pats are super likely to beat KC on tiebreakers and super likely to lose to Oakland on tiebreakers.
Good chance no AFC west teams win out which means 13-3 would give Pats homefield.
Right even if KC does Pats beat them on tiebreakers. Denver can't get to 13-3. And Oakland still has two road division games left
Correct but if KC ties Oakland at 13-3 then KC wins the division so Pats pass KC. I find it highly unlikely Oakland wins out.
I have winning out at about a 60/40 chance. The Raider beat two of the teams they play already (dominating Denver) and they play the Colts at home.
No Raider team has ever went 13-3 (the 1976 team went 13-1) so, yes, getting to 13 wins is incredibly difficult. But they will be favored to beat San Diego and Indy and I think they will win in Denver if they have to. They might be locked into the 5 or 2 seed (less likely after last night) in week 17, so it might be a Matt McGloin and James Cowser special at Mile High on New Year's day.
Unless the weather drops below 40, then Carr turns into Peyton Manning in the cold, amirite?!
(I'm petrified of the Raiders, and even more so if we have to travel out west.)
Look ahead lines Ive seen for Week 15 are from Raiders -.5 to SD -1 so I think 60/40 to run the table is a little aggressive
Remaining Games for the top three (four) AFC teams:
NE currently 10-2 --- Home BAL --- at DEN --- home NYJ-- at MIA- I see three tough games- likely 3-1 or 2-2. should finish 13-3 or 12-4
KC currently 10-3 --- Home TEN --- Home DEN --- at SD - could easily win out -probably favored in all 3 games. But due for one brain fart 13-3.
OAK currently 10-3 --at SD----Home IND --- at DEN - probably 2-1 but still won't pass KC if KC wins 13-3. Blocked from HFA over NE because of division.
DEN currently 8-4 -- at TEN -- home NE -- at KC -- home OAK-- those are 4 tough games. Probably 2-2 or 3-1. 10-6 or 11-5.
So the KC win yesterday was HUGE for the Pats. It puts Oakland under KC who is under us for HFA. New England essentially has a 1 game cushion on HFA throughout which seems like a bigger deal to me than the difference between possibly playing in KC versus Oakland.
NE currently 10-2 --- Home BAL --- at DEN --- home NYJ-- at MIA- I see three tough games- likely 3-1 or 2-2. should finish 13-3 or 12-4
KC currently 10-3 --- Home TEN --- Home DEN --- at SD - could easily win out -probably favored in all 3 games. But due for one brain fart 13-3.
OAK currently 10-3 --at SD----Home IND --- at DEN - probably 2-1 but still won't pass KC if KC wins 13-3. Blocked from HFA over NE because of division.
DEN currently 8-4 -- at TEN -- home NE -- at KC -- home OAK-- those are 4 tough games. Probably 2-2 or 3-1. 10-6 or 11-5.
So the KC win yesterday was HUGE for the Pats. It puts Oakland under KC who is under us for HFA. New England essentially has a 1 game cushion on HFA throughout which seems like a bigger deal to me than the difference between possibly playing in KC versus Oakland.
If that is the line you should bang it hard. the Raiders will be playing on ten days rest with the Chargers coming off an east coast game. Just like the Chiefs are a terrible matchup for the Raiders, the Chargers are a good one for the Silver and Black. There are going to be about 40-50,000 Raider fans in the stands at Qualcomm next weekend. Professional football players are pretty good at ignoring that stuff, but Phillip and Co. seemed to have quite a hard time dealing with being forced to use silent counts etc. on their home field for the Raider game last year and this game will be even worse in that regard. Finally, the Raiders are likely to have Osemele back on offense (ask Collingsworth how important that is) and potentially Karl Joseph, Darius Latham, Aldon Smith and Mario Edwards Jr back on defense. They might, might be able to actually be able to stop the run, and if Smith is back, might be able to play Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin less than 70 snaps per game.
A January trip to Baltimore or Pittsburg seems to be in the Raider's future. Calling them a virtual lock for the 5 seed is a bit too far- KC could brain fart their way onto that list but seems like that would be a very distinct possibility.
A lot of people in here are discounting Denver. I still think they are a formidable opponent who can play their way back into the AFC West race and a first round bye. Their defense is finally getting back to full strength. Don't count them out.
Their schedule is brutal though.
@TEN
NE
@KC
OAK
They probably have the worst schedule of anyone remaining. They technically could play their way into a 1st round bye but I don't see them having the AFC Championship game at home, which is the main area of concern: playing in Denver.
If they go 3-1, which i think is possible, they're still at 8-5 and in the meantime give KC or OAK 1-2 more losses which only helps the Pats in most scenarios.
@TEN
NE
@KC
OAK
They probably have the worst schedule of anyone remaining. They technically could play their way into a 1st round bye but I don't see them having the AFC Championship game at home, which is the main area of concern: playing in Denver.
If they go 3-1, which i think is possible, they're still at 8-5 and in the meantime give KC or OAK 1-2 more losses which only helps the Pats in most scenarios.
Do you think Oakland will drop into the six seed, with 10 wins and 7 conference wins already in the books, or do you think the AFC South Champ will somehow finish ahead of the AFC North Champ and take the 3 seed?
I think a January trip to one of Houston/Indy/Tennessee is looking most likely for the Silver and Black.
Interesting question - Does divisional standing matter for wild card seeding or just conference standing? In a Oakland V. Denver (or Miami v. Buffalo) WC seeding scenario, and assuming Head to Head is 1-1, does division record (and standing) matter or just conference record?
Sorry, you're right, brainfart on my part. 5 seed heading to AFC South champ- seems like a winnable game.
As long as Ben Dreith isn't involved, I'm not worried about traveling to Oakland if need be (and for all you fellas who've been fans since 2001, he's the ref who made one of the biggest horseshit calls in NFL playoff history to ensure a Raiders win vs the Patriots back in the 1976 playoffs; that team should have been the first Patriots team to win a Super Bowl if it wasn't for that asshole, they got royally and utterly screwed).......................
Raiders had chances after the Tuck Rule call too, but they don't remember it that way.
If 2 teams in same division are tied, they use the division tiebreaker. If 2 division teams tie a 3rd team in another division, you break the division tie first, then compare the 2 remaining teams.
http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures
In the possession prior to the Tuck Rule possession, the Raiders had 2nd-and-3 and 3rd-and-1. Had they converted either one, the Raiders could have run out the clock. Neither one of those plays was a pass; the Raiders ran 3 straight plays and then punted on 4th down.
I think the bolded refers to an earlier Raider possession in the 4th quarter. The Raiders had 3rd-and-11 on the Pats 45; Gannon's pass to Jerry Rice was just incomplete, and the Raiders had to punt. Had they converted, there was still too much time to run out the clock, but they would have been pretty deep in New England territory with the ball and the lead with less than 4 minutes to go.
In the OT, the Pats converted a 4th-and-4 instead of attempting fate with a 2nd 45 yard field goal attempt in a blizzard. I think there was another play that was really close.
Sorta OT, but it just dawned on me that the Patriots are playing in Miami a day and a half really after the Orange Bowl. The field's probably going to be in crappy shape given the quick turnaround. Considering they are probably going to have to win that game to get the #1 seed it's something to think about.
i see 2 things for Denver
1 IF Simen is 100% i say he is 70% right now IF denver wins Tomm they are in because 50/50 aga NE because no gronk danny A is hobbled harris jr can slow JE 50/50 @ KC KC is due a loss maybe lose the last 2 games and 66/34 Denver beats oakland in week 17 right now i say denver is 11-5 loseing to KC or NE
i dont see a way ne does not get the 1 seed unless they lose the next 2 games
but if Denver wins the last 4 games somehow i wouild say 30% Denver gets the 2 seed Oak loses to INDY and DEN and KC loses w 16 And 17 that said
1 NE 13-3 loseing only to Den
2KC/DEN 12-4
3 PITT 11-5
4 INDY 10-6
5 OAK/DEN 11-5
6 Den/OAK 11-5
1 IF Simen is 100% i say he is 70% right now IF denver wins Tomm they are in because 50/50 aga NE because no gronk danny A is hobbled harris jr can slow JE 50/50 @ KC KC is due a loss maybe lose the last 2 games and 66/34 Denver beats oakland in week 17 right now i say denver is 11-5 loseing to KC or NE
i dont see a way ne does not get the 1 seed unless they lose the next 2 games
but if Denver wins the last 4 games somehow i wouild say 30% Denver gets the 2 seed Oak loses to INDY and DEN and KC loses w 16 And 17 that said
1 NE 13-3 loseing only to Den
2KC/DEN 12-4
3 PITT 11-5
4 INDY 10-6
5 OAK/DEN 11-5
6 Den/OAK 11-5
thank u for the respect but denver has a horrible off 31 or 32 overall its gonna take help from Goodall just to get to NE in Jan
it took a bad SD FG snap for u to get by that game last 2 San diego home games ever San Diego plays the best when they have nothing to play for
J-man - I'm logging in to make the first leg of the donation. Do you want use to donate to UCP nationally, or to your local affiliate, or I could do one and Dogman2 the others.
the only reason u beat Denver in @OAK
1 No Tailb 2 50% B Marshall 3 NO K Webster great ST player 4th CB
2 we did not preprate for the 6 OL we will jan 1
Done! I went national, but if you find those other local guys let me know either in case the Broncos win, or for later on!
The Raiders won that game because they ran the ball down Denver's throat, before and after Marshall was hurt.
That game might be in San Diego, but it won't be a home game. That crowd is going to be almost entirely Raiders fans.
Of course! Happy to help. I'll try to find your friend on FB. You live near my cousins!
So what are we looking for today? Seems to be 3 main games with impact
Mia/Ari, obviously want Mia to lose for a shot at clinching tomorrow
Pit/Buf, Steelers loss (and Mia loss) means Pats have a shot at locking in 1st rd bye
Den/Ten, Because fuck the Broncos I guess?
Mia/Ari, obviously want Mia to lose for a shot at clinching tomorrow
Pit/Buf, Steelers loss (and Mia loss) means Pats have a shot at locking in 1st rd bye
Den/Ten, Because fuck the Broncos I guess?
TEN because we could use more losses hung on either KC or OAK. And the more desperate DEN is, the more likely they are to hang losses on them.
That and it would be awesome to not have Denver in the playoffs. Highly unlikely but not impossible
Yeah, that 4th down play was the one Patten caught down on his knees, after Wiggins almost knocked it away.
Denver in the playoffs is fine. Their altitude just needs to be out of the playoffs.
I don't want their defense anywhere near the Patriots in the playoffs no matter the location.
cause tailb or ward or stewart might headhunt and damgme your WR for Houston SB 51
denver is a very diff team this year zero off 1 of the worse o-line i have ever seen no running game double sanders press thomas
after today awful game denver does not deherb the playoffs
so next week will be Denver super bowl since Denver is not going to the playoffs
The Broncos have the all-time nightmare schedule but I'm not sure why you would be sure Denver will miss the playoffs even if they end up 9-7. Miami is 8-5 but Tannehill is hurt, and I think that the tie-breaker goes to strength of wins, which the Broncos would presumably have. The Ravens are 7-5 and have the Pats and Steelers on the road. The Titans and Texans are 7-6 and tied for first in the all our teams are dogshit division and I am shocked every time either of them wins Edit: and both of them would need to win two games for the 2nd place team to just get to 9-7 and they play each other once (and I have no clue which way the tie-breaker will go).
Regarding Miami - if tied with the broncos, you would be looking at common games. Each still have to play the patriots, with Miami currently at 1-3 and Denver at 2-2 in common games, so Denver wins that unless Miami def New England def Denver, in which case they go to SoV, which goes to Denver. So yes, Denver owns the tiebreaker with Miami.
Edit: Due to head to head, Denver owns tiebreaker vs Houston, loses tiebreaker vs Tennessee. One way or another, Houston would own a tiebreaker with Tennessee.
Edit2: Baltimore would control the tiebreaker with Denver due to conference record.
Three way ties get more complicated.
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