It's not a scientific comparison or anything, but I feel like not putting Megatron in would be like not putting Koufax in. He didn't play that long, but he was just so fucking good when he played.
Active Hall of Famers
- Thread starter Papelbon's Poutine
- Start date
Especially when we are likely to see more superstar players retire at a younger age in the future due to health and safety concerns.
Was everyone using stick'em back then and how much would that help Jerry's hands? I have no clue how effective it is.
No, he played after stickum was made illegal, but he was caught on tape once admitting that he had put stickum or a similar substance on his receiving gloves. It couldn't have hurt to have the stickum on, but somewhere there is analysis that seems to indicate that the incremental help was next to zero for receivers who played with it when it was legal. So take that for what it is worth.
Jimmy Graham isn't a hall of famer. He's not on the path at all. 3 pro bowls and 1 all pro? The only reason he even got that is because of the pass heavy Brees offense.
I don't think as many of the current crop of receivers as people are saying make it in. Fitzgerald makes it in. Doubt Johnson does, especially with his touchdown totals.
I don't think as many of the current crop of receivers as people are saying make it in. Fitzgerald makes it in. Doubt Johnson does, especially with his touchdown totals.
In:
Brady
Brees
Rodgers
Fitz
Ware
Witten
Peterson
Freeney
Watt
Revis
Sherman
Should be in but may not
Megatron
Vinatieri
Almost in
Gronk
Gates
Rapist
Earl Thomas
Steve Smith
Jason Peters
Wilfork
Will be in:
Patrick Peterson
Tyron Smith
Antonio Brown
AJ Green
Joe Thomas
Von Miller
Clay Matthews
If stays healthy will be in
Julio Jones
Cam Newton
Luke
Eric Berry
If stays healthy and gets sane:
ODB
Suh
Doubtful but possible
Suggs
Rivers
Luck
Shady McCoy
Brady
Brees
Rodgers
Fitz
Ware
Witten
Peterson
Freeney
Watt
Revis
Sherman
Should be in but may not
Megatron
Vinatieri
Almost in
Gronk
Gates
Rapist
Earl Thomas
Steve Smith
Jason Peters
Wilfork
Will be in:
Patrick Peterson
Tyron Smith
Antonio Brown
AJ Green
Joe Thomas
Von Miller
Clay Matthews
If stays healthy will be in
Julio Jones
Cam Newton
Luke
Eric Berry
If stays healthy and gets sane:
ODB
Suh
Doubtful but possible
Suggs
Rivers
Luck
Shady McCoy
Is Rodgers a lock already? 7 great seasons and he seems to have bounced back after a down 2015 and a rough start to this year, but doesn't he need a bit longer at the level he's at now at least to be a sure thing?
John Madden has said that Hayes used stickum primarily to maintain contact with receivers at the line of scrimmage.
Lester Hayes concurs - no advantage
I had that vey thought when looking at the picture. Didn't know Madden said it, but it makes sense.
Rodgers is probably in. I think Roethlisberger gets in too. Maybe even Eli.
The Hall of Fame loves them some QBs. With Stabler getting in, the 70s now has Bradshaw, Griese, Staubach, Stabler, Fouts, Namath, and Tarkenton. The 80s has Montana, Kelly, Marino, Elway and Moon. It's not a Hall that skimps on the star quarterbacks.
The Hall of Fame loves them some QBs. With Stabler getting in, the 70s now has Bradshaw, Griese, Staubach, Stabler, Fouts, Namath, and Tarkenton. The 80s has Montana, Kelly, Marino, Elway and Moon. It's not a Hall that skimps on the star quarterbacks.
The stories about his training are borderline insane. Like Larry Bird on steroids. (Not literally obviously).
Luck doubtful but possible seems extreme. He's in the "stays healthy and he'll be in" category.
Let's wait till he gets his second season of 30 TDs or his first with a rating over 100 then we can say he'll be in, health or not.
Just for reference, since the merger:
Only three eligible players with 4+ first team all-pro selections have not been elected to the hall of fame:
Alan Faneca (in only one year of eligibility), Terrell Owens (same), and Leroy Butler.
Butler is probably not going to get in, but the other two are assuredly going to make it. That's out of a sample of roughly 50 players, so the 4-AP1 club has a roughly 98% HOF success rate going for it. That bodes well for Joe Thomas, Jahri Evans, Adrian Peterson, Darrelle Revis, Demarcus Ware, and JJ Watt.
It's a big falloff from 4 to 3, though.
If you have 8+ pro bowl appearances, plus 3 all pro first team selections, the odds shoot right up again. Of that crowd, only Bailey, Atwater, Lynch, Faneca and Mawae haven't made it yet.
Tough break for safeties, but I think Bailey, Faneca, and Mawae will get in.
ETA: Somehow I missed Zach Thomas. 7 pro bowls and 5 all-pro first team selections. He is not in. He might not get in. Urlacher, who is less decorated, is probably going to get in. Sucks for Thomas.
Only three eligible players with 4+ first team all-pro selections have not been elected to the hall of fame:
Alan Faneca (in only one year of eligibility), Terrell Owens (same), and Leroy Butler.
Butler is probably not going to get in, but the other two are assuredly going to make it. That's out of a sample of roughly 50 players, so the 4-AP1 club has a roughly 98% HOF success rate going for it. That bodes well for Joe Thomas, Jahri Evans, Adrian Peterson, Darrelle Revis, Demarcus Ware, and JJ Watt.
It's a big falloff from 4 to 3, though.
If you have 8+ pro bowl appearances, plus 3 all pro first team selections, the odds shoot right up again. Of that crowd, only Bailey, Atwater, Lynch, Faneca and Mawae haven't made it yet.
Tough break for safeties, but I think Bailey, Faneca, and Mawae will get in.
ETA: Somehow I missed Zach Thomas. 7 pro bowls and 5 all-pro first team selections. He is not in. He might not get in. Urlacher, who is less decorated, is probably going to get in. Sucks for Thomas.
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I don't even see the argument for Newton ever being a top 3 QB in the league, much less a Hall of Famer. That includes his MVP year.
Think it's hard to justify anyone other than Brady Brees Rodgers and Ben in the hall. I think guys like Manning Romo and Rivers have an argument but at least for me fall short. Guys like Newton and Luck aren't even close. Wilson is on track.
Luck has one season where he was top 10 in passer rating. He's on a loser franchise that seems to be getting worse by the year. His rating adjusted for era is below average. This is not the start to a hall of fame career.
Think it's hard to justify anyone other than Brady Brees Rodgers and Ben in the hall. I think guys like Manning Romo and Rivers have an argument but at least for me fall short. Guys like Newton and Luck aren't even close. Wilson is on track.
I remember reading an SI article back in the early 1990s about Jerry Rice's training and I couldn't even fathom how a human being could do such things. Even now, after becoming more familiar with how athletes train, it is still extraordinary.
I remember thinking he was cooked in 1998 or 1999, and then the dude went to Oakland and had multiple 1,000 yard seasons with like 80-90 catches...in a time when passing still wasn't quite on 'roids yet...obviously it was trending that way, but that is amazing from a 40 year old.
I remember thinking he was cooked in 1998 or 1999, and then the dude went to Oakland and had multiple 1,000 yard seasons with like 80-90 catches...in a time when passing still wasn't quite on 'roids yet...obviously it was trending that way, but that is amazing from a 40 year old.
Matt Ryan will make his 4th Pro Bowl this year, potentially first-team All Pro. He's a former Rookie of the Year, and is 11th all-time in passer rating. He is peaking, and projects to have a much more productive next 4-5 years than Cam Newton, who like all running QBs, will see his rushing stats continue to decline.
If ATL can win a title, or Ryan puts up another 2 or 3 years like this, he has a case. Newton, who should compare very unfavorably to Randall Cunningham when all is said and done, shouldn't sniff the hall. Especially considering he has a current sub-80 passer rating, his being in just by staying healthy doesn't make much sense.
If ATL can win a title, or Ryan puts up another 2 or 3 years like this, he has a case. Newton, who should compare very unfavorably to Randall Cunningham when all is said and done, shouldn't sniff the hall. Especially considering he has a current sub-80 passer rating, his being in just by staying healthy doesn't make much sense.
Matt Ryan's "11th all time" is also "8th among active players".
Passer rating is a pointless comparison across time--of the top 24, only 2 didn't play at least part of their career post-2000 (Montana and Young, who both played into the 90s). And just 2 of the top 40 (Otto Graham and Roger Staubach) didn't play post 1990.
Case in point: Cam Newton, who as you note "should compare very unfavorably to Randall Cunningham when all is said and done" is #22 all-time. Cunningham is #54.
Totally agree that it's relative. Which makes Cam's career 87.0 and 15th active all the less impressive. Cunningham also had 3 seasons in the top 5 of passer rating, while Cam has only cracked the top 10 once. And he was a better rusher than Newton, too.
Somehow, Eli is 8th all-time in passing yards and 7th in TDs. (Just for comparison, Ben is 10th and 10th, respectively.) And he's obviously got the 2 SB wins. Those top 10 lists are obviously slanted significantly towards the modern throw-first NFL, but I think both Eli and Ben get in.
If Eli gets in, it's based on his last name and playing in NYC (and yeah, those two bogus SB wins). But was he ever a top 5 QB? How many years was he a top 10 QB even? He has 4 years (out of 12) with a rating over 90, and has never cracked 94. He throws for a ton of yards and TDs, but he also has 3 seasons with more than 20 INTs and only 3 seasons with a 2:1 TD:INT ratio, with two of those coming once Beckham came on the scene.
The top ten in passing yards and other statistics is going to change dramatically. The first rookie QB to throw for 3,000 yards was Peyton Manning(1998). Quarterback is an entirely different position in the Goodell Era.
Youngest QBs to 20,000 yards:
Drew Bledsoe 26 years, 253 days
Peyton Manning 26 years, 266 days
Matt Stafford 26 years, 282 days
Dan Marino 27 years, 3 days
Cam Newton 27 years, 186 days
Fastest QBs to 20,000 yards
Matt Stafford 71 games
Dan Marino 74 games
Peyton Manning 78 games
Daunte Culpepper 80 games
Aaron Rodgers 80 games
age 31
Matt Ryan 36,807 passing yards. Has 4,000 yards this season for the sixth consecutive year. 35.8 pass attempts per game, 7th all-time.
Joe Flacco 31.904 passing yards. 43.2 pass attempts per game. Six consecutive seasons of 3,500+ yards from 2009-2014.
age 29
Andy Dalton 21,563 passing yards. 32.9 pass attempts per game. Six consecutive seasons of 3,000 passing yards.
Sam Bradford 17,744 passing yards. 36.3 pass attempts per game, 6th all-time.
age 28
Matt Stafford 29,423 passing yards. All-time leader with 727 pass attempts in a season(2012)and 39.2 pass attempts per game. Fastest QB to 20,000(71 games) and 25,000(90 games) passing yards. Second youngest QB(23 years old, Dan Marino 48 TD at age 22) to have 40 TD in a season. Should finish this season with his sixth consecutive 4,000 yard passing season.
Russell Wilson 17,356 passing yards. Very underrated run in the last seven games of 2015 (1,906 yards, 24 TD, 1 INT). Tied Peyton Manning with 26 TD passing in a rookie season.
Ryan Tannehill 18,455 passing yards. 34.2 pass attempts per game. Has 4,000+ yards in 2014 and 2015
age 27
Cam Newton 21,037 passing yards. Fifth youngest quarterback to 20,000 yards. Should have his sixth consecutive season of 3,000 passing yards.
Andrew Luck 18,219 passing yards.12,957 yards, 86 TD, 43 INT first three seasons, 48 of 48 games. 5,262 passing yards, 42 TD, 22 INT in the 19 of 32 games since then.
age 25
Derek Carr 10,749 passing yards. 37.1 pass attempts per game, 5th all-time.
age 24
Blake Bortles 10,523 passing yards. 37.2 pass attempts per game, 4th all-time. 4,428 passing yards at age 23.
age 22
Jameis Winston 7,406 passing yards. Had a 4,000 yard passing season at age 21(youngst to do so), and is close to repeating that at age 22. A healthy two season would probably see him easily become the Buccaneers' all-time leader in passing yards and touchdowns before he turns 25.
Marcus Mariota was on fire until last week's loss to Denver(88 yards passing). His previous 8 games he had 2,073 passing yards, 21 TD, and 3 INT.
Youngest QBs to 20,000 yards:
Drew Bledsoe 26 years, 253 days
Peyton Manning 26 years, 266 days
Matt Stafford 26 years, 282 days
Dan Marino 27 years, 3 days
Cam Newton 27 years, 186 days
Fastest QBs to 20,000 yards
Matt Stafford 71 games
Dan Marino 74 games
Peyton Manning 78 games
Daunte Culpepper 80 games
Aaron Rodgers 80 games
age 31
Matt Ryan 36,807 passing yards. Has 4,000 yards this season for the sixth consecutive year. 35.8 pass attempts per game, 7th all-time.
Joe Flacco 31.904 passing yards. 43.2 pass attempts per game. Six consecutive seasons of 3,500+ yards from 2009-2014.
age 29
Andy Dalton 21,563 passing yards. 32.9 pass attempts per game. Six consecutive seasons of 3,000 passing yards.
Sam Bradford 17,744 passing yards. 36.3 pass attempts per game, 6th all-time.
age 28
Matt Stafford 29,423 passing yards. All-time leader with 727 pass attempts in a season(2012)and 39.2 pass attempts per game. Fastest QB to 20,000(71 games) and 25,000(90 games) passing yards. Second youngest QB(23 years old, Dan Marino 48 TD at age 22) to have 40 TD in a season. Should finish this season with his sixth consecutive 4,000 yard passing season.
Russell Wilson 17,356 passing yards. Very underrated run in the last seven games of 2015 (1,906 yards, 24 TD, 1 INT). Tied Peyton Manning with 26 TD passing in a rookie season.
Ryan Tannehill 18,455 passing yards. 34.2 pass attempts per game. Has 4,000+ yards in 2014 and 2015
age 27
Cam Newton 21,037 passing yards. Fifth youngest quarterback to 20,000 yards. Should have his sixth consecutive season of 3,000 passing yards.
Andrew Luck 18,219 passing yards.12,957 yards, 86 TD, 43 INT first three seasons, 48 of 48 games. 5,262 passing yards, 42 TD, 22 INT in the 19 of 32 games since then.
age 25
Derek Carr 10,749 passing yards. 37.1 pass attempts per game, 5th all-time.
age 24
Blake Bortles 10,523 passing yards. 37.2 pass attempts per game, 4th all-time. 4,428 passing yards at age 23.
age 22
Jameis Winston 7,406 passing yards. Had a 4,000 yard passing season at age 21(youngst to do so), and is close to repeating that at age 22. A healthy two season would probably see him easily become the Buccaneers' all-time leader in passing yards and touchdowns before he turns 25.
Marcus Mariota was on fire until last week's loss to Denver(88 yards passing). His previous 8 games he had 2,073 passing yards, 21 TD, and 3 INT.
I'd say the locks are
QB - GOAT, Rapist, Brees
RB - AP
WR - Fitz
TE - Gronk is borderline
Defense - Revis Watt
K- Viniteri
Borderline - Eli Gronk Megatron. Peterson and Sherman need more time. Rodgers needs another ring or an MVP. But all of the above eventually get in. Just a question of if it's 1st 2nd ballot etc.
QB - GOAT, Rapist, Brees
RB - AP
WR - Fitz
TE - Gronk is borderline
Defense - Revis Watt
K- Viniteri
Borderline - Eli Gronk Megatron. Peterson and Sherman need more time. Rodgers needs another ring or an MVP. But all of the above eventually get in. Just a question of if it's 1st 2nd ballot etc.
I think the best comp for Eli is Bob Griese, except Eli's Giants were never as dominant as Griese's Dolphins. Griese wasn't a top-5 guy either (Fouts, Tarkenton, Bradshaw, Staubach and Stabler were all better, and I could probably dig up a few more names with some research), but Griese was a no-doubt Hall of Fame selection. Eli is a closer call, but he's not going to be the second guy with two SB rings as a starting QB who ends up on the outside looking in. Part of that is being a Manning and playing in New York, but it's mostly the simple fact that QBs are still judged to a great extent by their jewelry.
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I wasn't around for the good part of his career, but Griese was Top 10 in passer rating 11 times, Top 5 five times, 8-time pro bowl, and twice all pro, and won a couple of org's MVPs. I know the league was smaller, but Eli is not comparable.
Manning has 4 pro-bowl appearances and zero first team all-pro selections.
There are three post-merger Hall of Famers who fit that criteria: Lem Barney, Mel Renfro, and Charley Taylor.
There are 51 (including a handful of active players) players with similar AP/PB credentials who are not in the HOF, including Drew Bledsoe, Jeff Garcia, and Michael Vick (plus active players Roethlisberger and Romo).
Griese was a much different QB than Eli. Griese ranks 18th in era-adjusted ANY/A, Manning 54th (which doesn't count the first two seasons of Griese's career).
Griese is one of the weaker HOF QBs for two reasons. One is a lack of a super-high peak. He had excellent rate stats (3 ANY/A top 5s, 8 top 10s), and he was very consistent, but he never had a really dominant season. His career thus has a very different arc from his contemporary Ken Stabler -- Griese's career was probably better than Stabler's, but Stabler had at least 2 seasons that were better than any season Griese had.
The second issue with Griese is extremely low volume. He finished with only 3429 pass attempts and only 4 times exceeded 300 attempts in a season. Because he played in a run-first era on mostly very good teams, he didn't throw very much, plus he was basically done at 35. Eli's already got almost double that volume and shows no signs of slowing down.
Eli shouldn't be anywhere near the HOF, except when he visits for his brother's induction. He'll get in though, because of the two Super Bowls, and it will be dumb.
Why is that dumb? He led his team to two Super Bowls.
Hall of Fames celebrate the game. Eli led his team to two of the most memorable Super Bowl wins. His counting stats look (are) very good, and he has a couple more seasons left. I'd have no qualms if he made it.
Here's a handy chart for HOF chances post-merger (based on AP1 and Pro Bowl selections).
X-axis is Pro Bowl selections
Y-axis is All Pro First Team selections
The guys at the mountaintops who have not made it in:
Steve Hutchinson (7 PB, 5 AP1)
Zach Thomas (7 PB, 5 AP1)
John Lynch (9 PB, 2 AP1)
X-axis is Pro Bowl selections
Y-axis is All Pro First Team selections
The guys at the mountaintops who have not made it in:
Steve Hutchinson (7 PB, 5 AP1)
Zach Thomas (7 PB, 5 AP1)
John Lynch (9 PB, 2 AP1)
Because "led his team to two Super Bowls" is both a) false, since he contributed very little to the 2007 team, and b) a dumb way to measure excellence. Seriously, it's 2016 and we still have to have RINGZ!!! arguments? He was terrible in 2007 and improved to being a generally slightly above average QB since then, with some real stinker seasons mixed in (like 2013, when he had a 18/27 TD/INT ratio). Eli's best quality is durability -- he hasn't missed a start in 12 years -- which is why his counting stats will end up so high. But durability being your best quality for a QB is like saying a woman has a nice personality.
Namath is not a good comp. Namath is an all-peak guy, while Eli is a all-career guy. Namath's peak was much higher than Eli's -- he had at least two seasons when he was probably the league's best QB (1967 and 1972), and several others when he was in the conversation. But he was basically done as a top-flight QB at 32. Namath is also a guy who has been underrated by traditional stats for a long time because he was a bomber who threw deep a lot, and traditional passer rating heavily overvalues completion %. 1972 is a good example. He was only 16th in Completion %, but 1st in Y/C and TDs; he ranked 12th in passer rating but 1st in ANY/A.
Bradshaw is a better comp, but he too had a higher peak than Eli, with 4 top 5 ANY/A seasons and 7 top 10s (Eli has 1 and 3, respectively). Bradshaw's career is odd because he wasn't at his best when the Steelers were dominant in the mid-70s -- his peak was 78-82. He gets too much credit for "leading" all those Super Bowl teams (he was as much of a passenger as Eli in 07 on the 74 team) and not enough for being really good later in his career.
If he gets in, Eli would be by most measures the worst post-merger QB in the HoF, by a lot.
A decent long read on Vinatieri. Doesn't break a lot of new ground for Patriots fans, but good to read nonetheless
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/18260104/indianapolis-colts-kicker-adam-vinatieri-journey-becoming-nfl-old-goat-2016
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/18260104/indianapolis-colts-kicker-adam-vinatieri-journey-becoming-nfl-old-goat-2016
The aside on the long snapper Kinchen was awesome. I've never heard any of that, fascinating stuff.
A really fun bar game is to see if people can name 10 kickers not named Adam viantieri who have never played for their favorite team or their fantasy team in 3 minutes. Very, very few people can do it.
Seven plus the Zendejas clan, but I don't know their first names. Max, Luis, and ?
Starting at 11:01:06 my time:
Akers, Vanderjagt, Forbaith, Walsh, Carpenter, Boswell, Lutz, Gano, Folk, Bailey. Prater if you need them all active. 11:02:31 end.
Could've gone on for longer by time and by name quantity, but fulfilled the challenge. Only am good here because I love observing kicker trends, having been looking at special teams play in depth the past three years, with special attention to snappers, holders, and the aforementioned kickers, with specific attention to the fluidity of the snap, efficiency of hold, and motion of kicker (his hips rotating!).
If you need first names: David, Mike, Kai, Blair, Dan, Chris, Wil, Graham, Nick, Dan, Matt.
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Hmmm...
Bill Grammatica, Martin Grammatica, Robbie Gould, Morten Anderson, Gary Anderson, Mike Nugent, David Akers, Jon Kasay, Greg Zuerlein, Dan Carpenter, Jay Feely, Josh Brown, Nate Kaeding, Mike Vanderjagt, Sebastian Janikowski, Dan Bailey, Steven Haushka, Justin Tucker, Matt Prater
Time's up.
Bill Grammatica, Martin Grammatica, Robbie Gould, Morten Anderson, Gary Anderson, Mike Nugent, David Akers, Jon Kasay, Greg Zuerlein, Dan Carpenter, Jay Feely, Josh Brown, Nate Kaeding, Mike Vanderjagt, Sebastian Janikowski, Dan Bailey, Steven Haushka, Justin Tucker, Matt Prater
Time's up.
I completely forgot that he was with the Pats in 1997 for the Super Bowl against the Packers. I wonder how the game might have changed if he had kicked away from Howard.
How have none of those guys played on any of your fantasy teams? That is a Mason Crosby away from being "guys made way more famous by fantasy football."
Rodgers could die tomorrow and he'd be a Hall of Famer. At worst, he's a righty Steve Young.
The problem is if you stream kickers (as most reasonable fantasy players do) then like every kicker is on your team eventually, especially if you have multiple fantasy teams. So then you're looking at "oh who was that kicker who kicked for the Lions for two weeks three years ago and couldn't make a kick?"
An apt comparison, especially since he and Young are both System QBs, who rode/have ridden the coat tails of their predecessors.
I think that's how it goes, right?
Yes, that is what makes the challenge so fun, it handicaps itself. If you follow football very closely you probably play on 2-3 fantasy teams and have had a bunch of kickers on your teams, so you are forced to think of older kickers or incredibly brief-lived kickers. If you don't follow football all that closely then you may well be able to name guys currently playing. That is one of the things that makes it really cool. It is even harder to do for punters. For any other position it is a piece of piss .
The hardest part is not getting caught up in the "oh, what was that fucking guy's name?" trap. I spent about ten seconds trying to remember the guy my brain was thinking "wide right guy," (Scott Norwood) and then it went into a "laces out" tangent and I was thinking about Ray Finkle for another ten seconds. I think if you compartmentalize it by big games your team has played in and thinking of those kickers (I spaced Cundiff), and add in a few more of the older generation (Grammaticas and Andersons), you should be able to do it. I have no idea where Dan Bailey came from for me, though.
Also, I don't play fantasy football, which helps.
Also, I don't play fantasy football, which helps.