The 2017 Rotation

DanoooME

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So after a flurry of activity, we probably need a focused thread on the rotation, so here's where it stands:

Locks
Sale
Porcello
Price

Battling for 2 Slots
Buchholz
Pomeranz
EdRo
Wright

Issues for Discussion
Who are the favorites for those last two slots and why?
If it's Pom and EdRo, is there a concern about having 4 lefties in the rotation?
Do they trade a starter at this point? Or do they wait until spring training or later?
Do they keep the one or two leftovers in the 'pen or does someone get sent down (if that's even possible)?
What is the relative trade value of the 4 contenders?

And anything else you wish to discuss. Have at it.
 

czar

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I made my preference semi-clear in the Sale thread, but my preference is to try and leverage one of the surplus starters to "replenish" the farm system in an off-season devoid of solid FA SP options. I don't think moving any of the 4 materially hurts the major league roster or even the 6th starter depth. All four posted similar 2nd-half FIPs and none will be asked to front a rotation. Unfortunately, none (other than maybe ERod) are really in a situation where you can stash in AAA under the guise of needing more development.

Wright feels like he'd have more value to the Sox than what he'd get coming back (other than Dickey, knuckleballers also seem undervalued by the trade market -- likely based on volatility). ERod feels like he has the mid-rotation+ upside a team like the Red Sox can afford to gamble on.

It comes down to whether the Red Sox absolutely need to shed $$$ (then trade Buchholz, but with less return) or if the Sox move someone like Pomeranz (less salary relief but who would bring back more in the way of value). My personal preference is to deal the latter because it
A) solves a bit of the lefty-heavy problem
B) peripherally, I'm not sold on Pomeranz being anything more than a back-of-the-rotation guy in the AL
C) he will net far more value-wise in a trade than Buchholz
D) perhaps most importantly, Pom's contract (last arb year + possible extension) will be getting expensive when the Red Sox need extra $$$ space to lock up Betts, X, JBJ, 10D, etc. to long-term deals (versus Buchholz who will be off the books by this November).

But regardless, I think it would be suboptimal to have all 7 guys being on the roster on April 1st. The actual rotation slots are less of a concern than extracting value since these "more than 5 starters" things always work themselves out.
 

StupendousMan

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But regardless, I think it would be suboptimal to have all 7 guys being on the roster on April 1st. The actual rotation slots are less of a concern than extracting value since these "more than 5 starters" things always work themselves out.
I thought that the way these "more than 5 starters" things usually worked themselves out was that 2 or 3 of the players became injured during the season. In that case, having 7 guys on the roster sounds like a pretty good idea.
 

czar

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I thought that the way these "more than 5 starters" things usually worked themselves out was that 2 or 3 of the players became injured during the season. In that case, having 7 guys on the roster sounds like a pretty good idea.
Generally, yes, but a large issue in this case is that all 7 guys (except ERod) would need to be carried on the MLB roster, which is a near-impossibility given the commitments to the bullpen (and also an ineffective use of resources since you either need to keep the 6th-7th starters semi-stretched out by using them low-lev or you require short stints if they need to move back and forth between single IP outings and starts).
 

DeadlySplitter

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I thought that the way these "more than 5 starters" things usually worked themselves out was that 2 or 3 of the players became injured during the season. In that case, having 7 guys on the roster sounds like a pretty good idea.
I can't see two of Wright, Pomeranz, Buch being happy in the pen for long, though. I guess you could stash ERod in AAA for awhile, but as long as his knee is fine I want him in there as my 4th/5th starter with the biggest upside of the four.
 

Jungleland

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It seems to me Wright makes the rotation almost by default given how much more valuable he is as the Sox 5th starter than he would be in trade or in the pen. Eduardo likewise should probably start in AAA to preserve depth. Then, I'd dangle both Buchholz and Pomeranz in trades, and if the value is good deal one of them. Otherwise Pomeranz probably goes to the bullpen and Buchholz is the 4th starter. It's a classic good problem to have, and unless they need the salary relief (Clay moves) or the return is great (Pomeranz moves) I don't think it's crazy to keep all 7 around to start the year.
 

ehaz

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If we're trading one of Pomeranz/Clay/Wright I would rather target a RHH bat to complement Pablo and/or more bullpen depth than waste an asset on some B-/C+ prospect with the notion that they're going to replenish the farm.

Does any team honestly give up a top 50 prospect for Pomeranz and his shoulder issue when you can just sign someone like Holland for cash? Top 100?
 

joe dokes

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Dont know about the rest, but IMO, Rodriguez has to be in the rotation. I'm agnostic on which 2 of the other 3 stick. He seems good enough/less fungible that stashing him for depth doesn't make sense.
 

Darnell's Son

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If the Red Sox trade a starter then Henry Owens will end up pitching meaningful innings in the rotation, and no one wants that. Replenish the farm system through the draft or if someone comes through with an offer during the season but I don't think now is the right time.
 

Todd Benzinger

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The correct answer is keep them all. Ha ha, too much pitching, where have I heard that before?

The nuances are that Wright is the toughest to use out of the pen, EdRo is the most promising but also the only one with an option....Buch and Pom at least have BP experience, and maybe keeping Buch's innings down early will mean that he is ready to step in when whoever it is goes down later in the season. (I guess the slight downside there is that if Buch has a solid first half you could always trade him for a nice haul at the deadline...)

IOW, Trade one now only if you are blown away.
 

the moops

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Does any team honestly give up a top 50 prospect for Pomeranz and his shoulder issue when you can just sign someone like Holland for cash? Top 100?
Derek Holland has only pitched 200 innings the last three years combined. And besides his excellent numbers in his 37 innings pitched in 2014, he hasn't been especially good. Pomeranz is under control until 2019, and will be paid far less than what Holland is likely to command.

So, sure, you could sign an inferior pitcher, who is more injury prone, for more money. Not sure any team would be relying on Holland to fill a role they would envision for Pomeranz though.
 

nvalvo

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I would have interest in restocking the high minors by dealing whichever of Buchholz or Pomeranz makes the most sense.

The 15 slots of the 40-man roster that *aren't* on the 25-man roster have taken a pretty sharp hit in the last few days, and I think that kind of optionable depth would be a bigger benefit to the team now and in the near future than upgrading Marco Hernandez' roster spot.

I'm particularly interested in position players. The departures of Moncada, Margot, Dubon, Asuaje, both Basabes — hell, even Henry Ramos — means that right now, the only position players on the 40 man who aren't certain to make the 25 man roster on opening day are Bryce Brentz, Blake Swihart, Deven Marrero, and maybe Marco Hernandez. Sam Travis will need to be added, I think.

I'm pretty sure Swihart will be a good MLB player. Sam Travis looks like he has the plus hit tool to be a useful piece. But I think it goes without saying that Brentz and Marrero are pretty bad, and right now, we're the wrong three injuries away from seeing Bryce Brentz in front of the Monster or Marrero at shortstop.

(edit: Just thinking about Nick Green's 300 PA for the 2009 Red Sox, a team with championship aspirations. As you were.)

Basically we have a gap in our pipeline now between Swihart and Travis, the guys on the cusp of the majors, and the Deverses, Dalbecs, Chavises and Chathams. We need some Sea Dogs, players whose optionable years will coincide with this window when we'll have Sale, Price, and Porcello in the rotation and Bogaerts, Betts, Bradley and Benintendi in the lineup.

I think Pomeranz has real value in prospects, but because he's cheap, moving him doesn't help with the payroll too much. Someone acquiring Buchholz and his money should still send us an okay prospect for the privilege. That's probably the deal that would make the most sense.

Maybe we could brainstorm which teams still need starters?
 

RedOctober3829

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Rob Bradford mentioned on MLB Radio yesterday trading Buchholz by December 15th for CBT reasons. I researched this last night but couldn't find significance of this date other than that is when the new CBA will be ratified. Is there some significance to being under the CBT at the time the new deal goes through?
 

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The issue is not just 4 lefties in the rotation, but the fact that the 8-10 guys are also all lefties. I think that Rodriguez is too good not to be in the rotation from day 1. I also have trouble believing that a knuckleballer will be the only right handed arm in the top 9 starters. I think Pomeranz goes, Buchholz is #5, and Wright goes to the pen until someone gets hurt.
 
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Devizier

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Any rotation planning has to consider time missed to injuries (and other factors).

Over the last four years, 37 games a year have been started by someone outside of the top five in the rotation.

On average, that has meant:
12 starts by the 6th starter
8 starts each by the 7th and 8th starters
5 starts by the 9th starter
The rest covered by 10th-12th starters.

Now those years have been characterized by mediocre pitching (2014 and 2015) and maybe some adverse injury luck this year.

However, a lot of that trend holds even in a great season for the pitching staff (2007, for example)

Matsuzaka 32 starts
Wakefield 31 starts
Beckett 30 starts
Schilling 24 starts
Tavarez 23 starts
Lester 11 starts
Gabbard 7 starts
Buchholz 3 starts
Hansack 1 start

Obviously this year's starting rotation should be even better than it was in 2007; and they might even coax a comparable bullpen performance (Papelbon and Okajima were insane that year).

But the Sox are still looking at some shuffling in the back end of the rotation. I would expect that 4-5-6-7 will see a fair number of starts this year, perhaps even more than usual. I see no rush to deplete that depth unless someone from the minors is knocking at the door.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If the Red Sox trade a starter then Henry Owens will end up pitching meaningful innings in the rotation, and no one wants that. Replenish the farm system through the draft or if someone comes through with an offer during the season but I don't think now is the right time.
If they don't move a starter, there's still a good chance that Henry Owens pitches some meaningful innings in the rotation because there's no way they can keep seven starters stretched out and ready to step in if two of them are in the bullpen. Especially if the top 3 starters remain the innings eaters they were in 2016...there just aren't enough innings to go around if everyone is healthy.

Keeping all seven means that one of Pomeranz, Buchholz, or Wright becomes a short reliever simply out of necessity. In which case, they probably won't be all that easy to bring back to the rotation if necessary. Enter Owens.
 

RedOctober3829

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If they don't move a starter, there's still a good chance that Henry Owens pitches some meaningful innings in the rotation because there's no way they can keep seven starters stretched out and ready to step in if two of them are in the bullpen. Especially if the top 3 starters remain the innings eaters they were in 2016...there just aren't enough innings to go around if everyone is healthy.

Keeping all seven means that one of Pomeranz, Buchholz, or Wright becomes a short reliever simply out of necessity. In which case, they probably won't be all that easy to bring back to the rotation if necessary. Enter Owens.
Pomeranz makes the most sense in the pen given his experience with Oakland there.
 

czar

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If we're trading one of Pomeranz/Clay/Wright I would rather target a RHH bat to complement Pablo and/or more bullpen depth than waste an asset on some B-/C+ prospect with the notion that they're going to replenish the farm.

Does any team honestly give up a top 50 prospect for Pomeranz and his shoulder issue when you can just sign someone like Holland for cash? Top 100?
We live in a world where Shelby Miller netted the previous year's #1 draft pick and six-months-ago Drew Pomeranz pulled back a top-20 prospect in baseball.

I'm not saying those were *good* trades and that the Red Sox can extract similar value. But Pomeranz's value (younger, cheap, under control through 2019, etc.) >> anyone on the FA market.
 

grimshaw

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Realistically, they aren't adding much to their farm system much unless they deal Pomeranz, who is by far, their biggest asset of the three. I don't remember how much of a bidding war was given to RA Dickey - knuckleballers are weird - before signing the big contract with the Jays, but I don't see Wright approaching B+ prospect value until he is in the ballpark of his first half last season over another half season+. And in the fairly remote chance he somehow gets there, you probably keep him.

I'm curious how Wright would react to the demotion to the bullpen. He seems like the good soldier, but there has to be some ego involved if you go from All-Star to middle relief, sort of like Tanner Roarke two years ago . It's irrelevant to their decision, but just interesting.

Not that it is direct evidence of him being the odd man out but Clay was barely mentioned in the press conference in terms of rotation. I think Farrell skipped over him, and DD talked about his September in passing.

I would prefer and believe they keep their best 12 pitchers since they are trying to win the World Series this year and worry about stocking the system in other ways.
 
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czar

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If the Red Sox trade a starter then Henry Owens will end up pitching meaningful innings in the rotation, and no one wants that. Replenish the farm system through the draft or if someone comes through with an offer during the season but I don't think now is the right time.
The correct answer is keep them all. Ha ha, too much pitching, where have I heard that before?
But the Sox are still looking at some shuffling in the back end of the rotation. I would expect that 4-5-6-7 will see a fair number of starts this year, perhaps even more than usual. I see no rush to deplete that depth unless someone from the minors is knocking at the door.
I don't think anyone is arguing against rotation depth, but in this case, the only way I can envision keeping all 7 (assuming health) is sending ERod to AAA (and stashing the odd one out of Wright/Buchholz/Pomeranz in the pen) which seems a sub-optimal use of major league resources.

We already have Kimbrel, Thornburg, Smith, Ross, Abad, Kelly on major league contracts and Barnes, Hembree, Scott, and Workman behind them in the bullpen (not up to speed on who has options and who doesn't). There just isn't a lot of room to push more big league contracts back there.
 

joe dokes

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Derek Holland has only pitched 200 innings the last three years combined. And besides his excellent numbers in his 37 innings pitched in 2014, he hasn't been especially good. Pomeranz is under control until 2019, and will be paid far less than what Holland is likely to command.

So, sure, you could sign an inferior pitcher, who is more injury prone, for more money. Not sure any team would be relying on Holland to fill a role they would envision for Pomeranz though.
But Holland was a "closer." He'll get as many chances as post-mortem Joe Nathan did.
 

ehaz

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The Marlins could use pitching, but most of their interesting prospects are pitchers as well. Maybe the Astros? They have guys like Colin Moran, Daz Cameron, Derek Fisher, Kyle Tucker.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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You can't have too many starting pitchers, but you CAN have too many starting pitchers with no options clogging up the 25-man roster. Balancing expected performance with cost and flexibility, I'd like the team to do the following:
- Open with Sale/Porcello/Price/E-Rod/Wright in the rotation
- Start with Pomeranz in the pen as the long man, stretched out enough to be our next starter up
- Trade Buchholz and his salary for either a good, lower cost bench piece OR an optionable starter (like R.Elias was when we got him last year) who can preserve some starter depth but replace "quality" with "flexibility"

Obviously, people need to get through spring training healthy and pitching well. If Pom is lights out and Wright is struggling, you could swap their roles in late March.
 

Puffy

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Seattle is on the hunt for a back-end starter again. They'll probably kick tires on guys like McCarthy and Kazmir from the Dodgers. Pomeranz seems to fit their profile better, as a lefty, but they did apparently discuss both Buchholz and Miley last offseason (leading up to the Miley trade). Perhaps Buchholz might be a fit there. A couple of days ago, they'd probably have tried to trade someone like Seth Smith for Buchholz, but DD went ahead and signed a similar guy (Moreland) for less than what Smith is making this year. I don't know if anyone else from that organization really matches up, although Dipoto has been busy selling off what's left of Jack Zduriencik's high draft picks, so perhaps there is someone interesting that could come back this way.

Edit: I just read that Heyman tweeted this morning that Seth Smith was almost on the way to Boston before the Moreland signing.
 

The Best Catch in 100 Years

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Seattle is likely to check in on Pomeranz and Clay per ESPN. Tyler O'Neill makes some sense as a OF/DH type who just had a great year in AA.
I posted a more lengthy defense of this in the Offseason Thread but I completely agree that O'Neill would be a good, realistic return for Pomeranz if they go that route.

Harder for me to see a season of Clay at $13.5M netting much to get excited about.
 

Wallball Tingle

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You can't have too many starting pitchers, but you CAN have too many starting pitchers with no options clogging up the 25-man roster. Balancing expected performance with cost and flexibility, I'd like the team to do the following:
- Open with Sale/Porcello/Price/E-Rod/Wright in the rotation
- Start with Pomeranz in the pen as the long man, stretched out enough to be our next starter up
- Trade Buchholz and his salary for either a good, lower cost bench piece OR an optionable starter (like R.Elias was when we got him last year) who can preserve some starter depth but replace "quality" with "flexibility"

Obviously, people need to get through spring training healthy and pitching well. If Pom is lights out and Wright is struggling, you could swap their roles in late March.
I don't like doing "This", but...This. Including the part where Wright and Pom are duelling in March (everyone healthy in this scenario). Even if E-Rod had a shitty spring, I wouldn't want him in AAA unless and until he sucked for all of April, too. Buchholz seems like solid trade bait; presumably the Sox would pay a third to half his salary if they wanted to get something of substantial value in return, or nothing if they want a small pile of lottery tickets.
 

NoXInNixon

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I thought Clay pitched pretty well out of the bullpen this year. $13.5M is a lot to pay for a middle reliever, but it's a sunk cost and since we're all in for 2017 anyway that's where I'd put him unless someone is willing to give up a real prospect. I don't find that likely.
 

Devizier

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We already have Kimbrel, Thornburg, Smith, Ross, Abad, Kelly on major league contracts and Barnes, Hembree, Scott, and Workman behind them in the bullpen (not up to speed on who has options and who doesn't). There just isn't a lot of room to push more big league contracts back there.
I don't see roster space as an issue here. Smith is going to open the season on the disabled list. The 6-7 starters can pitch in long relief. Barnes, Hembree, Scott, and Workman should not be penciled into the ML roster. Barnes and Scott have options. Workman and Hembree are fungible. Abad is tradable.

The number six starter pitches as many innings as a closer does (albeit in lower leverage). I think that aspect should not be overlooked.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Flotsam and jetsam. Wright did enough last year before Farrell lost his faculties and got him injured. Knuckleballers are volatile but he's probably the #4. Leaving Pomeranz Buchholz EdRo Johnson and Owens for the 5th spot. Something has got to give here.
 

chrisfont9

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I like the idea of trading Pomeranz upthread. Agree he'd fetch more than one year of Clay Buchholz. Wright is pre-arb and very valuable in that sense. I can't tell if he has options but either Clay stays as a swingman, or if he earns the 5th starter job then Wright can be stashed in Pawtucket, or if he's out of options then he's the swingman in the bullpen. Buch's money can come off the books next year, by which time the Sox will hopefully start spending on extensions. Of the three, Pomeranz seems like the easiest to trade among the guys who would bring something important back to us.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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I thought Clay pitched pretty well out of the bullpen this year. $13.5M is a lot to pay for a middle reliever, but it's a sunk cost and since we're all in for 2017 anyway that's where I'd put him unless someone is willing to give up a real prospect. I don't find that likely.
It's not a sunk cost yet. I think it's likely you could find a taker for Clay and all or most of his salary -- you just won't get much useful in return.

I agree that Buchholz would be great to keep around because he did have some good moments out of the bullpen last year, and it would be good to have a righty available to spot into the rotation here or there. But given the implication of his $13.5MM in terms of trying to stay south of the cap, I think he's the one to go.
 

Pandemonium67

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Keep them all for the time being, unless blown away by a trade offer.
- ERod starts in the minors.
- Pomeranz starts in the bullpen, in part to keep his innings down (he may be needed in the rotation later)
- Wright and Buch start in the rotation. Give Wright time to see if he can repeat last year's first half. Give Buch time to boost his trade value.
- Trade Buch at the deadline, extracting maximum prospect value from a wanna-be contender desperate for a starter.
- At that time, add either ERod or Pomeranz to the rotation.
- Once Buch is gone, two of ERod/Pom/Wright are in the rotation, the other is in the bullpen.
I don't care about the number of lefties in the rotation.
 

koufax32

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Before we go shipping CB off, how do we view his work with Bannister? IIRC there was talk about changing his arm slot or something. Once that change occurred wasn't Buchholz pretty good?

In the 2nd half he had an ERA of 3.22 and a whip of 1.108. In his return to the rotation in September and October (sss of 5 starts) he had a 3.14 ERA with a 1.15 whip. I don't remember exactly when the arm slot talk/tinkering took place but he was a different pitcher in that sample. Now, the real question is how much of that is due to actual delivery tinkering and how much is due to him being Clay the Enigmatic Weasel?


Found this interview with CB and Bannister from Aug. 1:
According to BrooksBaseball.net, in 2013, Buchholz’s release point was typically about 6 feet, 3 inches off the ground. It moved down sharply in 2014 (about 2 ½ inches), and continued to move down in 2015 and finally 2016, when his release point has been roughly 6 feet (or just under 6 feet) off the ground. That might sound insignificant, but subtle changes can have considerable effect on an arsenal.
“Early, he was trying to manufacture sink, and sometimes that turns into horizontal run and it's not as valuable,” Bannister said. “I think his secondary pitches suffered a little bit because of that.”

If Clay is fixed I want him in the rotation (until he inevitably gets hurt or loses his mind or whatever).


On mobile. Here's the story: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/08/01/clay-buchholz-reminder-fixes-not-trades-sometimes-best-solution/OEX2qdrdRjkER1R7R0giSK/amp.html?client=safari.
 
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DanoooME

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Will they maximize value by trading someone now? Or around Super Bowl time when most if not all of the decent FA options have signed? Or in spring training when someone gets hurt? Or sending down EdRo/BPing Pom and running with Buchholz and Wright in the last two slots? I kind of have mixed feelings. There's a lot on the market now, so I don't think there's much of an opportunity to maximize return unless a specific GM wants a specific guy. It's a gamble to wait to see if a team or multiple teams get major injuries in ST creating a better market. I'd definitely want to wait until spring from the perspective of worrying about the health of their own guys since none of the non-core four are exactly bastions of health lately.
 

Auger34

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I kind of think who is in the rotation and who will be dealt is locked in already.
Rotation is Price-Sale-Porcello-ERod-Pomeranz. Wrights the swingman, Buch's traded for 2 B level prospects.
I will be shocked if Pomeranz is traded or put in the bullpen, I think he's a lock.
Maybe Dom decides to trade ERod but that goes against what he has done recently
 

the moops

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Just a point of reference.

Jaime Garcia had his option picked up by St Louis (12 million) and was subsequently traded to Atlanta for 3 prospects. Cardinals got their #16 (Ellis), #21 (Gant), and #30 (Dykstra).

Garcia/Buchholz seems to be a decent comparison. Both have been injured a fair amount, had down year last year, and have high but unpredictable ceilings. Perhaps what a Buchholz trade would net.
 

johnnywayback

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Keep them all for the time being, unless blown away by a trade offer.
- ERod starts in the minors.
- Pomeranz starts in the bullpen, in part to keep his innings down (he may be needed in the rotation later)
- Wright and Buch start in the rotation. Give Wright time to see if he can repeat last year's first half. Give Buch time to boost his trade value.
- Trade Buch at the deadline, extracting maximum prospect value from a wanna-be contender desperate for a starter.
- At that time, add either ERod or Pomeranz to the rotation.
- Once Buch is gone, two of ERod/Pom/Wright are in the rotation, the other is in the bullpen.
I don't care about the number of lefties in the rotation.
Rodriguez has nothing left to prove in the minors, and it's very likely that he's already better than Pomeranz, Buchholz, or Wright. Wright seems like the best choice to be the long man in the bullpen, given his rubber arm and proven ability to bounce back and forth. And you don't want to put two of your starters in the bullpen, because then you definitely lose Hembree in addition to having to have Barnes or Ross waste time in Pawtucket.

Who we trade depends on what we can get, obviously, but my preference would be to trade Pomeranz, if we can get something approaching what we paid for him (adjusted, of course, for the fact that it's a half-season later in his contract). I'd also be interested in seeing whether Rodriguez could get us most of the way toward a Freddie Freeman or a big prospect package.

But if we can't, then, sure, trade Buchholz, try to get a AAA starter with options who's better than Henry Owens as part of the return (the Garcia trade is indeed a pretty good analogue), and use the savings to upgrade on Marco Hernandez at the end of the bench.
 

Georgy Zhukov

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Erod deserves to be in the rotation. He has the highest ceiling of any outside the top 3. I've heard suggestions about sending him to AAA but I think that would piss him off and hurt his career in Boston. I like the idea of Wright in the bullpen. Having Clay and Pom as your 5th and 6th starters is a very nice luxury to have. I'm sure DD is trying to get the feel for the trade market for both but they may fetch more in terms of prospects in July. If they keep both, the challenge will be to get both work if they are being showcased. An injury or two (heaven forbid) would obviously change everything.
 
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dbn

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Why do some posters seem to think it is a problem that the Red Sox have a lot of left-handed starting pitchers?
 

joe dokes

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Jul 18, 2005
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Ross is a good major league pitcher. Unlike the rotating cast of 12th pitchers or 6th IFs, putting him at AAA to preserve depth hurts the big club.
 

Adrian's Dome

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2010
4,424
I want no part of the Clay Buchholz Experience again. It's been a decade, I've had enough. Plus, if I get him again on Patriots Day I'm going to have an aneurysm right in the middle of Lansdowne.

Pomeranz #5, Wright long/swingman, Clay literally anywhere else. Pomeranz is likely the best and the most consistent of the three, and since winning games is the goal, he goes in the rotation. I love what Wright did for a half last year, but again, knucklers are inconsistent and can screw up the catcher rotation. He's fine out of the pen, he's not a serious injury worry, and he's as good of a #6 as you're going to get.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
19,615
Portsmouth, NH
Will they maximize value by trading someone now? Or around Super Bowl time when most if not all of the decent FA options have signed? Or in spring training when someone gets hurt? Or sending down EdRo/BPing Pom and running with Buchholz and Wright in the last two slots? I kind of have mixed feelings. There's a lot on the market now, so I don't think there's much of an opportunity to maximize return unless a specific GM wants a specific guy. It's a gamble to wait to see if a team or multiple teams get major injuries in ST creating a better market. I'd definitely want to wait until spring from the perspective of worrying about the health of their own guys since none of the non-core four are exactly bastions of health lately.
Wait, what?

Where is there 'a lot on the market now'?

They will most likely hold serve unless someone makes an offer they can't refuse. Barring that, you bring all 7 into spring training and you wait for someone on another team to have an injury and have an immediate need for a short term solution. Which is pretty much guaranteed to happen. Then you trade them Buchholz and call it a day.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
4,711
Just a point of reference.

Jaime Garcia had his option picked up by St Louis (12 million) and was subsequently traded to Atlanta for 3 prospects. Cardinals got their #16 (Ellis), #21 (Gant), and #30 (Dykstra).

Garcia/Buchholz seems to be a decent comparison. Both have been injured a fair amount, had down year last year, and have high but unpredictable ceilings. Perhaps what a Buchholz trade would net.
I think that'd be selling low on Buchholz. They finished last year trending in opposite directions, and if you can't wring value out of that it's probably not worth dealing him. Then again, if you're confident whatever he's done with Bannister is real and can be made to stick, he's worth more in Boston than anyone else will probably pay and you deal Pomeranz.

Specific to the Mariners rumor, I think he's worth O'Neill and either Neidert (#4, RHP, A) or Moore (#9 RHP, AA). Time to look for some pitchers to step up in AAA and shuttle to Boston better than Owens and Johnson have been able to.