"Replacing" Ortiz

snowmanny said:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-cubs-indians-disrupting-timing-bannister-d-backs-more/

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It is interesting on paper, but I wonder if people view JBJ as someone you have to platoon long term. His minor league numbers are noticeably worse vs L, and this year he had a drastic split. Last year, he murdered lefties though. Schwarber doesn't have much of a split at all in the minors but in his SSS at the major league level, he's been unserviceable vs L. His strikeout rate gives me a little pause as well, although his minor league strike out rates weren't really an issue until AAA.

I'd guess it would come down to how much value you put in defensive metrics/how much you value defense over how much you value offense. Schwarber profiles as the much better hitter. Schwarber was putting up an .842 OPS at the Major League level at age 22 in 273 PA (and a 1.017 OPS in 243 PA in AA for a perfect age/level comparison). At the same age, JBJ was putting up an .809 OPS line in Portland over the course of 271 PA (and a 1.016 in 304 PA in A+, a league he was old for as far as real prospects go). Even if you write off JBJ's 2014 as an outlier like I do, his profile doesn't compare to Schwarber's and using someones OPS at age 26 and comparing it to someone's OPS at age 22 is really missing the point.

I'd make the trade if I were the Redsox because Benintendi (or less likely, Betts) could move over to CF. I think the improvement in offense is worth the small drop off in defense. Plus the whole contract/arbitration situation. I also think JBJ will settle in as an .800-.850 OPS type bat that should be platooned versus L often in favor of Chris Young and Ben10.

There also really shouldn't be much jury out on JBJ's bat unless you view 2014 as anything more than a guy who is either called up way too early or injured. Remove 2014, and he is a model of consistency. Plus, the average AL CF slashed .261/.321/.407 last year. Bradley's 2nd half was .233/.315/.412. I'd be interested in seeing if he faced more lefties as the season went on.

His year totals vs R: .277/.363/.538 in 454 PA. Vs L: .239/.309/.356 in 181 PA. He also has significant road splits.

Could be an Ortiz replacement. Won't cost the Sox their pick.

Sox doing homework on Kendrys Morales
http://www.overthemonster.com/2016/11/8/13561584/red-sox-have-reached-out-to-kendrys-morales

Solid bat.....won't cost a pick......limited defensively

Scott Lauber ESPN

Heard from a major-league source who characterized the Red Sox's interest in Carlos Beltran this way: "They want him badly." Might boil down to whether Beltran wants more than a one-year guarantee. Unclear at this point. Regardless, Beltran wasn't subjected to qualifying offer by virtue of getting traded during season, so signing team won't have to cough up first-round pick.


http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0587761716218043962-4

I'm starting to want Beltran badly. I think he's potentially a great fit, with little downside.

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:

I'm starting to want Beltran badly. I think he's potentially a great fit, with little downside.

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Unless he gets hurt which he does an awful lot.

strek1 said:

Unless he gets hurt which he does an awful lot.

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In the past 6 years, he's played in 142, 151, 145, 109, 133, and 151 games. That's one bad year, and playing DH most of the time would undoubtedly help as well.

Green Monster said:

Sox doing homework on Kendrys Morales
http://www.overthemonster.com/2016/11/8/13561584/red-sox-have-reached-out-to-kendrys-morales

Solid bat.....won't cost a pick......limited defensively

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Morales wouldn't be an awful option. The multi year deal factor and his recent splits against RHP leaves me kinda meh on the idea, but it's still better then rolling the dice banking on internal options imo.

Beltran is still my #1 choice as long as it comes with fall off a cliff protection though. One year with a team option on the second works in the event he's not overly concerned with trying to milk all the guaranteed money he can, which doesn't really seem to be the case in most speculation I've read in regards to where he's at mentally. Guessing east coast team and a contender being the main selling points, so maybe Tor/Balt too if NY is out.

People are talking about Beltran as a potential DH. I'm not sure I see how that makes sense, unless the deal is extremely reasonable.

Here's another thought. There is talk that the Mets may move one of their OF after reupping Cespedes. Jay Bruce holds no fascination for me, but Granderson looks potentially appealing. He'll be 36, and he is owed 1/$15. He's a pretty bad CF now, but he could be a useful DH/5th OF, with the expectation that he doesn't see much time in the OF.

His last 3 OPS+ figures are 105, 127, 111 (which compares to the older Beltran's 122, 133, 102). He bats left handed, and delivers a pretty impressive SLG of .479 against RHP. He hit 59 XBH in 2016 (and somehow only managed 59 RBI? LOL Mets).

I don't think he would be hard to acquire, as the Metropolitans are motivated sellers, and I don't expect a ton of clamor for the services of an OF who shouldn't really play the OF anymore.

If we get a DH/OF, wouldn't we want a RHH? Someone who could split time with Chris Young spelling our 2 starting LHH OFs against tough LHPs? I think the line-up could use more LHH pop, but I'd want that guy to be someone capable of spelling Hanley at 1B against tough RHPs.

I'm guessing the team will add just one hitter, and it seems they prefer a shorter term deal for someone who will not cost a draft pick. It will be interesting to see whether they stress the bat in general, power, and/or defensive ability/versatility. Lots of ways they could go to find the best overall roster fit.

Minneapolis Millers said:

If we get a DH/OF, wouldn't we want a RHH? Someone who could split time with Chris Young spelling our 2 starting LHH OFs against tough LHPs? I think the line-up could use more LHH pop, but I'd want that guy to be someone capable of spelling Hanley at 1B against tough RHPs.

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This is a good question. I'm not sure LHH (in the case of Granderson and others) is necessarily a selling point. If the Sox were to acquire a LHH OF/1B/DH, that might actually weaken the roster when facing LHP.

It obviously depends on how the overall roster shakes out, but right now against LHP the Sox would have Bogaerts, Pedroia, Betts, and Ramirez as RHH at the top of the order. And then it gets messy, with Chris Young (OF) available to platoon in Bradley or Benintendi's spot, Sandy Leon, and then 3 more spots taken up by Benintendi or Bradley, a third baseman (Holt?), and a DH/1B (wherever Hanley is not playing - Shaw? Panda?).

Obviously it's not a strict LH/RH issue if some of the other roster spots can simply be upgraded this offseason, but it seems like a RHH (or any hitter who can hit both RHP and LHP) is more of a priority than more LHH platoon bats.

Carlos Beltran does make too much sense. Switch hitter, can be 4th/5th with Young and can help spell Benintendi/Bradley, short term deal (I would even go a guaranteed second year), and not adverse to DH'ing.

The things that gives me pause with Beltran is the age and the injuries. For several years he was an injury waiting to happen. The last couple of years he's been pretty healthy. Can't help but think as soon as WE get him he'll go back to injury prone.

Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale 1h1 hour ago
David Ortiz, who should have DH award renamed in his honor, wins the Edgar Martinez DH of Year for 8th time, an award Martinez won 5 times.

strek1 said:

The things that gives me pause with Beltran is the age and the injuries. For several years he was an injury waiting to happen. The last couple of years he's been pretty healthy. Can't help but think as soon as WE get him he'll go back to injury prone.

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Games played for Beltran, going backward from this past season: 151, 133, 109, 145, 151, 142. That covers his years since he moved out of being a full time CF (he shifted to RF in 2011). 2016 was the first year in which he was a DH more than an OF, and perhaps not coincidentally, he played in more games AND was more productive than he's been in recent years.

There are no guarantees of health when it comes to a 40-year-old player, but I would think if he's going to spend 80%+ of his playing time at DH, he stands a better chance of lasting the season. He's averaged over 2.0 oWAR the last five years even considering the missed time. I'd go 1/15 or 1/18 to bring him in to be the primary DH and 5th OF (6th really, with Holt around).

Puffy said:

This is a good question. I'm not sure LHH (in the case of Granderson and others) is necessarily a selling point. If the Sox were to acquire a LHH OF/1B/DH, that might actually weaken the roster when facing LHP.

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Yet you strengthen your team against RHP, which extends to the playoffs once the potential match up importance there really starts to tighten up. Making the overall trade off worth it imo.

I mean yeah, obviously somebody who you feel confident is going to do well against both in all scenarios would be the most ideal. But barring that I guess a lot there also depends on how exactly you see the 2017 lineup shaking out. For me that heart of the lineup is looking awful RHH heavy without Ortiz's game changer bat helping to make it all work.

On a side note, I'm just hoping Beltran isn't interested in going back to NY after seeing them sell at last year's deadline. If that ends up being the case I feel rather confident he ends up signing here once this looming labor dust settles.

How about some trade ideas? Yasmany Tomas is probably out there. Signed through 2020 for $48 million in base salary, $16 million through 2018 if he opts out. He was awful in the outfield this season and probably shouldn't be playing in the NL anymore. Not a terrific offensive player overall (so far) but the power is enormous.

I'm sure the Sox haven't forgotten Mike Hazen's phone number, either.

I added this to another thread.............perhaps more appropriate here

Mets said to be open to trading Granderson and/or Bruce. Given their starting pitching question marks, I wonder if a Buchholz for Bruce deal would make sense. It would be salary neutral. Bruce is no Ortiz, historically low OBP, but 33HR and 99RBI is not shabby. Could serve as the primary DH or slide into LF if a bigger deal for JBJ/Benny materializes.

Thoughts on a trade for Evan Gattis? He seems to have lost his spot in the Astros line-up with the McCann, Reddick, Beltran additions. He is quite affordable, and could also be a back-up option at C and 1B. (I'll note that he has played sparingly in the OF over the last few years but that seems to have been a failed experiment.)

Gattis had a .827 OPS with 32 homers last year in 447 ABs and he actually hit better on the road in 2016.

He's 30 years old and won't be a free agent until 2019.

Green Monster said:

I added this to another thread.............perhaps more appropriate here

Mets said to be open to trading Granderson and/or Bruce. Given their starting pitching question marks, I wonder if a Buchholz for Bruce deal would make sense. It would be salary neutral. Bruce is no Ortiz, historically low OBP, but 33HR and 99RBI is not shabby. Could serve as the primary DH or slide into LF if a bigger deal for JBJ/Benny materializes.

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Take it for what it's worth, but Olney chimes in on the Mets moving one of their outfielders...

Buster Olney @Buster_ESPN
Mets don't have traction on a trade of an outfielder at the moment. In their perfect world, would get bullpen help in return.

I guess Buchholz could be bullpen help, but pretty expensive and less than ideal bullpen help. I don't see the Mets being all that gung-ho about Buchholz as a starter since the so-called question marks they have in their rotation aren't really eased by adding an enigma like Buchholz into the mix.

Additionally, I don't think the Sox are in a position to move Buchholz unless they're getting another starter in return (or in a separate deal). They are thin beyond their top six guys. It wouldn't really improve things to make it a top five and only marginally improve the offense.

According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Mets are willing to listen to trade offers on outfielder Michael Conforto. Their priority at the winter meetings seems to be adding at least one, if not two, late-inning relievers.

4-man rotation between OF/DH with Conforto/Betts/Benintendi/JBJ would be fantastic. For some reason, the Mets manager doesn't seem to want to play him.

It would be, but I have to think given Boston's similar bullpen needs that some other team could put together a more enticing package.

That's absurd though; what the Mets have done with Conforto is malpractice.

Hee Sox Choi said:

According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Mets are willing to listen to trade offers on outfielder Michael Conforto. Their priority at the winter meetings seems to be adding at least one, if not two, late-inning relievers.

4-man rotation between OF/DH with Conforto/Betts/Benintendi/JBJ would be fantastic. For some reason, the Mets manager doesn't seem to want to play him.

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Where'd Chris Young go?

TonyPenaNeverJuiced said:

Where'd Chris Young go?

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DH v L. He shouldn't start v R. He can DH v L to give JBJ, Beni or Conforto a seat vs. Ls.

Hee Sox Choi said:

DH v L. He shouldn't start v R. He can DH v L to give JBJ, Beni or Conforto a seat vs. Ls.

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He had .766 OPS/101WRC+ vs R this year. Not ideal, but totally fine for Sunday lineups and keeping Holt a little more fresh.

simplicio said:

He had .766 OPS/101WRC+ vs R this year. Not ideal, but totally fine for Sunday lineups and keeping Holt a little more fresh.

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He has a career wRC+ vs. RHP of 84. He's only been above 100 3 times out of 10 years, never two years in a row, and never above 105. That kind of inconsistent-but-mostly-poor offense on the strong side of a platoon might be OK for an outfielder, but it won't do for a DH.

I like the idea of acquiring Bruce and platooning him at DH with Young, with the understanding that whichever of the two isn't DHing that day is the backup OF (with Holt providing further OF depth if necessary). Bruce is still a solid hitter vs. RHP, and a Bruce-Young platoon could produce an .850-plus OPS from the DH slot for about $20M next year. That wouldn't quite "replace Ortiz" but it would work.

Savin Hillbilly said:

I like the idea of acquiring Bruce and platooning him at DH with Young, with the understanding that whichever of the two isn't DHing that day is the backup OF (with Holt providing further OF depth if necessary). Bruce is still a solid hitter vs. RHP, and a Bruce-Young platoon could produce an .850-plus OPS from the DH slot for about $20M next year. That wouldn't quite "replace Ortiz" but it would work.

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Why give up assets for Bruce instead of signing Alvarez for presumably less than the 13 mil Bruce will make this year? Past three years vs RHP:

Bruce: 240/308/462
Alvarez: 245/326/479

Alvarez works for me if he can be gotten on a one-year deal.

Any news on Sam Travis - is he expected to be ready to go for spring training?

JimD said:

Alvarez works for me if he can be gotten on a one-year deal.

Any news on Sam Travis - is he expected to be ready to go for spring training?

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Doubtful that he will be 100% in Feb. Travis tore his ACL on May 29, pretty sure the world record for returning to action was Adrian Peterson who came back in just under 9 months, so I'm guessing he won't be cleared for full action at spring training and they'll be very cautious with him as he returns.

moondog80 said:

Why give up assets for Bruce instead of signing Alvarez for presumably less than the 13 mil Bruce will make this year? Past three years vs RHP:

Bruce: 240/308/462
Alvarez: 245/326/479

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Fair point. Are people saying that Alvarez can be had on a one-year contract? I can imagine the salary might be as low as $13M or even less, but I would expect him to get at least two years, more likely three. Which might still be a good move, but it does make the comparison to Bruce a bit apples-and-oranges.

I'm also assuming that Bruce, because he's only under control for one year, would fetch a pretty modest talent package, as in maybe one second-tier prospect and a lottery ticket or two. If I'm wrong about that, I wouldn't go there.

Savin Hillbilly said:

Fair point. Are people saying that Alvarez can be had on a one-year contract? I can imagine the salary might be as low as $13M or even less, but I would expect him to get at least two years, more likely three. Which might still be a good move, but it does make the comparison to Bruce a bit apples-and-oranges.

I'm also assuming that Bruce, because he's only under control for one year, would fetch a pretty modest talent package, as in maybe one second-tier prospect and a lottery ticket or two. If I'm wrong about that, I wouldn't go there.

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I definitely agree that the equation changes if Alvarez fetches say, 22/2. But fangraphs has him pegged for 8/1, and Houston & NYY have already filled their DH spots, so I'd be mildly surprised if he got two years.

moondog80 said:

I definitely agree that the equation changes if Alvarez fetches say, 22/2. But fangraphs has him pegged for 8/1, and Houston & NYY have already filled their DH spots, so I'd be mildly surprised if he got two years.

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Last year's deal for Alvarez was a $5.75m base with $200k bonuses for reaching various PA thresholds, of which he only cleared the lowest. He was fine last year, but not so good that I see him getting much more than that as a good-but-not-great hitter against righties without a defensive position.

Alvarez would give us LH pop to use in a DH platoon and for PHing. That's nice to have, but he's not bringing any defensive value with him, and he's not a good full-time injury replacement option. That kind of player isn't the most highly sought after. What team will be so desperate for that limited package that they offer him two years? I don't think the Red Sox will. They went 2/$13 on Young mostly because he could not only platoon with JBJ, he could reasonably sub in at any OF spot and give the team an extended run as a starter if need be.

1/$7M for Alvarez gets it done, imo. But they could still decide they want to add a more diverse skillset (Valbuena, Moss, etc.).

EDIT: Added Moreland, Napoli, Pearce and Plouffe / color-coded for availability

OPS+ vs. RHP for the last 3 seasons:
Alvarez: 120/119/121
Bautista: 154/133/89
Beltran: 122/129/128
Encarnacion: 157/160/136
Holt: 97/96/106
Moreland: 98/140/88
Napoli: 112/68/113
Ortiz: 146/176/186
Pearce: 144/109/116
Plouffe: 111/99/90
Valbuena: 131/122/127

OPS+ vs. LHP for the last 3 seasons:
Bautista: 203/133/184
Beltran: 59/108/160
Encarnacion: 146/132/144
Holliday: 184/125/115
Holt: 116/127/SSS
Napoli: 163/164/122
Ortiz: 150/94/135
Plouffe: 122/117/110
Pearce: 209/73/176 [small sample sizes]
Valbuena: 75/62/102
C. Young: 61/169/169

Given the cost and the defensive flexibility, Valbuena/Young makes for a nice platoon.

It certainly behooves them to stay in the Encarnacion discussion by keeping their powder dry until he signs, if only to run up the price for Texas or Cleveland or Houston or whoever. But even at that bargain price, you're locking yourself into a couple of uncomfortable realities:
-- If he stays all three years, you make it very hard to duck under the luxury tax threshold in either 2017 or 2018. Given the new, sharply escalating penalties, my guess is that they'd prefer to be under the soft cap in at least one of those two years so that they can go nuts in the post-2018 FA bonanza market.
-- Your bench is locked in: Young, Holt, a catcher, and either Sandoval or Shaw. In other words, you have no room for a RHH platoon partner for your 3B, whether it's Shaw, Sandoval, or Moncada (all of whom struggle against LHP). (You could, of course, option Shaw to start the season, or try to trade him for a reliever, but then you lose your best LHH pinch-hitting option, which is a thing because...)
-- ...the middle of your lineup is a string of RHH, making it very easy for opposing managers to match up late in games. It's obviously bad to stack lefties and invite the other team to bring in a LOOGY; it's not a lot better to stack righties and invite them to bring in Darren O'Day for five guys in a row.

Add to all this the fact that "replacing" Ortiz with Pedro Alvarez still leaves us with a top-3 offense in the American League (if not top-1), and the fact that Yoan Moncada could be ready to bump Shaw/Sandoval over to 1B by July, and the fact that Rafael Devers could be ready by next season, and even a three-year, relatively under-market commitment to Encarnacion just feels like the wrong fit.

Agree with you, Johnnywayback. I can't see them going high on $/short on years for EE b/c of the luxury tax and overall payroll implications. They'll want more flexibility to extend the B's. It's more likely the Sox would be willing to go to 4 years for Encarnacion if his yearly demand falls below $20M, an option that itself doesn't seem very likely, either.

The only way they really go after EE is if his annual price comes down AND they know they can unload most or all of Clay's and Sandoval's money (since they would still need to add 2 bullpen pieces as well). The small, incremental increases to the LT limits and the increased penalties significantly tightened up Boston's options.

If the market continues to dry up for EE, I wonder if he would consider a 1yr deal so he could try again next year?

http://nypost.com/2016/12/05/yankees-pursuit-of-astros-veteran-in-difficult-spot/

Joel Sherman claims MFY in pursuit of Valbuena, but he is looking for "more than one year" and also hoping for a regular job "even if it is at a variety of positions". Not sure if being on the left side of a DH platoon and sharing utility innings with Holt constitutes a regular job...still AAV unlikely to be bank-breaking.

If the market continues to dry up for EE, I wonder if he would consider a 1yr deal so he could try again next year?

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Giving up the 26th pick in the draft for a rental would be fun

Texas sounds similar to Boston right now. Everyone is trying to seem uninterested in EE at the current price in order to drive the price down.

I think we now have our answer. They're replacing Ortiz with run prevention - Sale and Thornburg. More than one way to improve your run differential...

Seems they have an abundance of SP. I would expect another trade in the future. Perhaps Buchholz for a Bat

There's recent chatter about interest in Doug Mientki - uh, I mean Mitch Moreland. Probably more for his glove to replace Hanley at 1st than as a DH (cuz aside from a little bit of lefty pop, Moreland's a crappy hitter). But hey, better defense = more run prevention! And you can always put Hanley back at 1st for interleague and World Series away games!

I'm liking the Alvarez possibility a lot more then Moreland and his .221/.293/.407 split against RHP last year.

Moreland had huge reverse splits this year, totally outside of his career norm. Probably just flukish sample size noise. Career .778 OPS vs R, .673 vs L, 2016: .700 OPS vs R, .799 vs L.

I prefer Alvarez as well but Moreland would probably have more of a role now that Shaw is gone and Hanley is our only 1b (Pablo?).

Moreland's ops against RHP wasn't much better in 2014 either, so unless you are putting a lot of weight on 2015 you could argue that his early career #'s are padding that total.

Although looking at it a different way I somewhat get the appeal I guess. We probably just conceded anything more then terrible full time defense at third today, so upgrading it at first with a plan to move Hanley to DH full time (despite recent comments out of Farrell suggesting the opposite approach) could make some sense in that respect.

I can't help but wonder if the Sale acquisition might tempt Papi to ponder coming back for 1 last hurrah. Perhaps, a Clemens-esque mid-season return? Probably unlikely, but one can always dream!

Pozo the Clown said:

I can't help but wonder if the Sale acquisition might tempt Papi to ponder coming back for 1 last hurrah. Perhaps, a Clemens-esque mid-season return? Probably unlikely, but one can always dream!

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Ortiz's 2016 was a fairy-tail ending. Clemens' 2007 was a shitshow and a complete joke. It's not even worth dreaming about Ortiz pulling something like that.

Pozo the Clown said:

I can't help but wonder if the Sale acquisition might tempt Papi to ponder coming back for 1 last hurrah. Perhaps, a Clemens-esque mid-season return? Probably unlikely, but one can always dream!

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If by last hurrah you mean throwing out the first pitch at Fenway in the WS next fall I'd be fine with that.

Mitch Moreland.
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