NFL's Declining Viewership: One Slice at a Time

j-man

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i used to watch everty TV game on cable now i just like red zone and broncos but if u go to the right website i will tell in a pm even give link u can watch a NFL game in 40 min or between 30min 1 hour every play no comm its legit been doing it for 12 weeks
 

jon abbey

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College football has the most dead time, those games last four hours-plus, you can easily watch two whole games in the time it takes to play one live.

It is the main reason why I watch some soccer now (never watched a game until 2014). To see teams and players experience flow and have a flow experience as a sports fan is so rare now... at least with televised events. The only other place I get that is attending high school sports or D3 college games.
Tennis is another one, tennis and soccer I mostly only watch live because there are so few chances to catch up.
 

tims4wins

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I also watch most Pats games on DVR delay ever since my first kid was born. I love it. While I'm not "live" during the first half I don't usually know what is going on, and I usually catch up sometime after halftime.
 

Bowhemian

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I delay-watch Pats game through DVR for about 50% of the games. Not sure I really enjoy it. It is hard to get into the flow of the game. If you fast forward too far through commercials, you might catch a peak of something, which sucks. And for sure stay off of social media while watching. It is kind of a pain, but sometimes it is necessary.
On the flip side, the commercials you see when watching live suck ass.
 

OCST

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They could superimpose the ads on the playing surface, like they do with the yellow line. I'm guessing they've researched it and decided that the risk of fam backlash is too great.
I'm sure it has been tested, but commercial free would be a completely different experience. It's one of the reasons I've really enjoyed the Premier League.

Folks might decide it's worth the tradeoff once the shock wears off.
 

TFisNEXT

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I also watch most Pats games on DVR delay ever since my first kid was born. I love it. While I'm not "live" during the first half I don't usually know what is going on, and I usually catch up sometime after halftime.
This has been my method too this season. I'm usually busy scrambling for food in the kitchen early on so I just put it on pause. I usually build up enough time in the first quarter to fast forward through all first half commercials and also fast forward through the intolerable halftime shows. It's excellent and makes the games a lot more watchable. I still suffer through the commercials later in the game but they are more tolerable if you haven't had to deal with them the first half.
 

Devizier

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I watched Superbowl XXXVI while living abroad in Sweden. At the beginning of that year, I never would have imagined waiting up past midnight to catch the kickoff (given the standard +6 time shift from EST), because there was no way the Patriots were gong to the Superbowl, right? Except that kickoff in Sweden was tape delayed by a little over half an hour -- kickoff occurred shortly after 1AM local time ---and commercial breaks were eliminated for the entire first half. Halftime went slightly longer (mostly featuring the european commentators in their studio) but not long enough to keep breaks out of the second half; maybe just the third quarter. Even then, no intervening commercials, just studio time.

Didn't miss a damned thing. Tape delay is awesome.
 

DourDoerr

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Add me to the pro-dvr camp as well. I'm on the west coast, so I play basketball Sunday mornings and my neighbor (also a Pats fan) plays tennis and we usually get together around 11:30 or so to start watching the game from the beginning. Usually we don't catch up, but since we're not on our phones and computers, it might as well be live. You can pause and use the restroom, make some food and not miss a second of action. We see the game in about an 1 1/2 to 2 hours, no commercials, no halftime and it's still light outside to go do something. Can't imagine going back to pre-dvr days.
 

singaporesoxfan

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It is the main reason why I watch some soccer now (never watched a game until 2014). To see teams and players experience flow and have a flow experience as a sports fan is so rare now... at least with televised events. The only other place I get that is attending high school sports or D3 college games.
This obviously can't be mandated, but one thing I loved when the Pats really leaned on the no-huddle offense was that it gave the experience of flow, and made the game so much more interesting to watch.
 

mauf

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Ratings have bounced back nicely the past few weeks. For sure, the league has been blessed with some marquee matchups and great games, but it seems there's some truth to Goodell's assertion that the election was the biggest factor in the early-season swoon.
 

edmunddantes

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How do you test that assertion though?

Cowboys are a historical marquee team that is on a resurgence.

Next Thursday is Oakland vs KC - Huge division battle with another ascendant historical marquee team in Raiders.


Rams vs Seahawks - this might be one to test if true but Seahawks are recent ascedant.
 

TFisNEXT

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Cowboys/Vikings was the 2nd highest rated Thursday night game of all time. Cowboys/Redskins on thanksgiving was highest regular season rating of all time on FOX. The Cowboys' resurgence has definitely helped out the sagging numbers.

And yeah, Oakland is a huge draw too and a couple of their upcoming games will probably keep the momentum going.
 

OCST

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Cowboys/Vikings was the 2nd highest rated Thursday night game of all time. Cowboys/Redskins on thanksgiving was highest regular season rating of all time on FOX. The Cowboys' resurgence has definitely helped out the sagging numbers.

And yeah, Oakland is a huge draw too and a couple of their upcoming games will probably keep the momentum going.
I have largely tuned out but I made a point of watching DAL-MIN, and it was a good game.

Product needs to be better.
 

ifmanis5

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kenneycb

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I imagine they were higher rated but that's more of a function of Peyton's teams being good and less of a function of Peyton Manning and his giant forehead.
 

Marciano490

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I imagine they were higher rated but that's more of a function of Peyton's teams being good and less of a function of Peyton Manning and his giant forehead.
I'd be surprised if over the last two years - when the offensive explosion was over - a significant amount of people were turning in to watch non-primetime Bronco games over any other team. Some of those games were brutal. Seems odd to pin an overall ratings decrease on that.
 

tims4wins

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Richard Sherman on Thursday night games: "Poopfest, it's terrible. We got home like 1 o'clock in the morning, something like that on Monday, and then you've got to play again. Congratulations, NFL, you did it again. But they've been doing it all season, so I guess we're the last ones to get the middle finger."
 

Jinhocho

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I can only speak for me, but in this I would say:

1) I do not watch as much TV in general as in the past.
2) I never ever would have thought I would become a casual NFL fan. I had season tickets for the pats for over a decade and only missed 1 game, have only missed a couple Pats games due to air travel over the last twenty five years. I generally always watched the 1, the 4, most or all of the sunday and monday games. I viewed Thursday and Saturday ones as a treat. I do not think I have watched more than 20 minutes of a single non pats game this year and prob for 75% of the season I have only turned on the Pats and nothing else.
3) I think for me Deflategate ruined the NFL for me. I fucking hate Roger Goodell, I hate most of the owners and GMs, I cant stand non pats fans after all of this (sucks as I live in NC) and really if not for the Pats would actively root for the league to fail. I just lost faith in the entire thing.
4) I have 2 kids (9 and 4) and it is harder to devote as much time as I used to to this.

When I look at this list, only 3 seems to be driving me.
 

tims4wins

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I can only speak for me, but in this I would say:

1) I do not watch as much TV in general as in the past.
2) I never ever would have thought I would become a casual NFL fan. I had season tickets for the pats for over a decade and only missed 1 game, have only missed a couple Pats games due to air travel over the last twenty five years. I generally always watched the 1, the 4, most or all of the sunday and monday games. I viewed Thursday and Saturday ones as a treat. I do not think I have watched more than 20 minutes of a single non pats game this year and prob for 75% of the season I have only turned on the Pats and nothing else.
3) I think for me Deflategate ruined the NFL for me. I fucking hate Roger Goodell, I hate most of the owners and GMs, I cant stand non pats fans after all of this (sucks as I live in NC) and really if not for the Pats would actively root for the league to fail. I just lost faith in the entire thing.
4) I have 2 kids (9 and 4) and it is harder to devote as much time as I used to to this.

When I look at this list, only 3 seems to be driving me.
Pats or no Pats I am actively rooting for the league to fail
 

Bowhemian

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If the Pats were not playing Monday night, I would have turned off the game fairly quickly due to all the commercials. Play, play, injury commercial, play, punt, commercial, play, end of quarter commercial, play, play, score, commercial, kickoff, commercial. It seemed quite excessive. I am on record in this thread as being an ardent commercial hater. And Monday nights game did not help.
 

Rook05

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If the Pats were not playing Monday night, I would have turned off the game fairly quickly due to all the commercials. Play, play, injury commercial, play, punt, commercial, play, end of quarter commercial, play, play, score, commercial, kickoff, commercial. It seemed quite excessive. I am on record in this thread as being an ardent commercial hater. And Monday nights game did not help.
The game flow didn't help. The Ravens came out throwing and had a lot of incompletions. Then you get the safety and subsequent kickoffs. We didn't hit halftime for almost two hours in realtime. Broadcasts seem to sometimes skip obvious commercial time outs to help catch up, but Monday was brutal.

On a different note, has SNF always been sneaking a quick commercial during a time out in a time minute drill? Holy hell, does that suck.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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Ratings have bounced back nicely the past few weeks. For sure, the league has been blessed with some marquee matchups and great games, but it seems there's some truth to Goodell's assertion that the election was the biggest factor in the early-season swoon.
It is looking like this may be the case, which is fascinating to me.
 

soxhop411

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end of season viewership numbers are out... and they are not good

Broadcasters of NFL games saw television viewership drop by an average of 8 percent for the 2016 regular season, as a typical game was watched by 1.4 million fewer people than last season (16.5 million versus 17.9 million), according to league data obtained by ESPN.

Prime-time broadcasts were the most affected. ESPN's Monday Night Football (17 games) and NBC's Sunday Night Football (19 games, including two Thursdays), the two most costly rights deals, were down 12 and 10 percent, respectively, in total viewers.

Daytime games on Fox and CBS, which each broadcast 27 games, were down 6 and 7 percent, respectively, in total viewers.

Thursday Night Football games were excluded from the data comparison. A variety of factors made the comparison versus last year skewed, including streaming on Twitter and a new partner, NBC..

In an interview last month, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell told ESPN the data reflected that the United States presidential election was "certainly a factor."

Prior to the Nov. 8 election, NFL games -- through the first nine weeks -- were down 14 percent compared to 2015. But the next eight weeks saw a recovery, as Weeks 10-17 were down only 1 percent in viewers compared to last season.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/18412873/nfl-tv-viewership-drops-average-8-percent-season
 

soxhop411

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I guess we can put Playoff viewership #'s here?

This is from Saturdays games:

Update: Though Raiders-Texans held a slight edge in overnight rating, Lions-Seahawks led viewership 26.9 million to 25.3 million.

For all the bad-mouthing of the Raiders-Texans game before hand it wound up not just bettering last year’s equivalent Wild Card Saturday game, it also edged out the primetime Lions-Seahawks game.

Raiders/Texans averaged a 16.6 overnight across ABC & ESPN peaking with an 18.8 rating from 5:45-6:00 PM ET. In the Bay Area the game averaged a combined 17.8 overnight rating and in Houston the game averaged a combined 31.2 rating.

On NBC the Lions-Seahawks game averaged a 16.5 overnight rating, way down from the 19.2 for last year’s equivalent Steelers-Bengals game that aired on CBS. In Seattle the game drew a 46.8 rating locally (on average 46.8% of the households in the Seattle market were tuned-in to the game) and in Detroit the game averaged a 33.0 rating.
https://sportstvratings.com/mixed-ratings-bag-for-nfl-wild-card-saturday/7258/

The Raiders/Texans AFC Wild Card Game had a 16.6 overnight rating on ESPN and ABC Saturday afternoon, up 2% from Chiefs/Texans last year (16.2) and up 27% from Cardinals/Panthers on ESPN alone in 2015 (13.1). The 16.6 is the highest for the early Saturday Wild Card window in three years, since NBC earned a 17.2 for Chiefs/Colts in 2014.

Houston’s win, which peaked at an 18.8 from 5:45-6 PM ET, delivered the fourth-highest overnight for the early Saturday Wild Card window in the past 18 years — since Bills/Dolphins in 1999 (17.9). Over that span, it trails only Jets/Bengals in 2010 (16.9), Chiefs/Colts in 2014 and Saints/Seahawks in 2011 (18.3).

The game edged Saturday’s Lions/Seahawks nightcap on NBC (16.5), marking the first time the early Saturday Wild Card window has topped the late game since 2005.

Houston led all markets with a 31.2 rating, down 4% from last year (32.6). It was followed by Norfolk, VA (24.8), Richmond, VA (24.1), Sacramento (22.8) and Atlanta (22.2). The Bay Area ranked outside of the top ten with a 17.8 rating.

(Numbers from ESPN)
http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2017/01/nfl-wild-card-ratings-raiders-texans-overnights-espn-abc/
The Lions/Seahawks NFC Wild Card Game scored a 16.5 overnight rating on NBC Saturday night, down 14% from Steelers/Bengals on CBS last year (19.2) and down 5% from Ravens/Steelers on NBC in 2014 (17.3). Compared to last year’s Seahawks/Vikings Wild Card game on NBC, which aired in the early Sunday window, overnights fell 27% from a 22.5.

The Seahawks’ win, which peaked at a 17.2 from 9-9:30 PM ET, earned the lowest overnight for the Saturday night Wild Card window in 11 years — since Jaguars/Patriots on ABC in 2006 (15.6). It trailed the early Raiders/Chiefs game on ESPN and ABC (16.6), marking the first time since that 2006 postseason that the late Saturday window trailed the early game in the metered markets.

Seattle was the top market with a 46.8 rating, down 7% from last year’s Seahawks Wild Card on NBC (50.4). Detroit ranked second with a 33.0, with Portland (30.1), Richmond (22.5) and Milwaukee (22.0) rounding out the top five.
http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2017/01/nfl-wild-card-ratings-nbc-lions-seahawks-overnights/
 

luckiestman

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This was the worst weekend of playoff football I remember. The first .5 of Giants Packers was watchable.

Hope it's better next week. Pats will wax Houston so that will suck but all others have potential.
 

mauf

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This was the worst weekend of playoff football I remember. The first .5 of Giants Packers was watchable.

Hope it's better next week. Pats will wax Houston so that will suck but all others have potential.
Yeah, the upside of four uninteresting games that went chalk this weekend is that we'll have the best possible matchups next weekend.
 

dynomite

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Yeah, the upside of four uninteresting games that went chalk this weekend is that we'll have the best possible matchups next weekend.
Agreed.

Pit @ KC could be a classic, particularly at Arrowhead where the crowd will be insane. Meanwhile the NFC games both have the potential to be great -- fun to see a classic NFL pairing in the Packers and Cowboys, as well as the vaunted Seahawks defense against the Falcons offense and the likely league MVP Matt Ryan.
 

H78

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The Seahawks are going to get lit up.
 

McBride11

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Agreed.

Pit @ KC could be a classic, particularly at Arrowhead where the crowd will be insane. Meanwhile the NFC games both have the potential to be great -- fun to see a classic NFL pairing in the Packers and Cowboys, as well as the vaunted Seahawks defense against the Falcons offense and the likely league MVP Matt Ryan.
You clearly didn't hear Buck today, Rodgers all ready won.
But you're right, these matchups next week are about 1292039x better than this week. Steelers O vs KC D in Arrowhead. Can Dak keep up with Rodgers? Ryan vs Sherman / Seattle D. Plus of course Thomas Brady in the Saturday prime time
 

dbn

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You clearly didn't hear Buck today, Rodgers all ready won.
But you're right, these matchups next week are about 1292039x(3/4) better than this week. Steelers O vs KC D in Arrowhead. Can Dak keep up with Rodgers? Ryan vs Sherman / Seattle D. Plus of course Thomas Brady in the Saturday prime time
Fixed. One of the matchups is not like the others.
 

garzooma

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From an article in the Atlantic How Superstar Economics Is Killing the NFL's Ratings:

For years the National Football League has been the uncontested king of media in an age of fragmentation. ... After years of steady growth, the NFL’s average television audience fell 8 percent from the previous season.
[...]
The second factor is what you might call the superstar effect. To sustain an audience of tens of millions of weekly viewers, the NFL is principally in the business of minting football stars, whose storylines they can follow week to week, like episodes of a favorite scripted television show. The proof is in the numbers. The few 2016 games that exceeded last year’s audience had the biggest recognizable stars and rivalries.
[...]
Sports are not so different from film. What national audiences desire above all are heroes, compelling challenges, and sequels. But the NFL’s universe of superheroes is surprisingly sparse at this particular moment. Consider a commercial proxy for the league’s biggest stars: the players with the most corporate endorsements in 2015. In just two years, the list has been decimated with injuries, retirements, suspensions, and disappointments. Commercial king Peyton Manning has retired, and so has candy king Marshawn Lynch. JJ Watt is injured, and so is Tony Romo. Drew Brees has missed the playoffs for a third straight year. Eli Manning has been a below-average quarterback since the middle of the Obama administration, while Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson have been alternately brilliant and confounding.
And then, this line:

Tom Brady remains transcendent, but the league puzzlingly celebrated his transcendence by making him the first citizen to be prosecuted under Boyle’s Law.


 

uncannymanny

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It's almost like when you let players do whatever they want and then apply arbitrary discipline people don't like the "story" . But hey, the NFL was in the news last June!!1!!!!!
 

Harry Hooper

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From an article in the Atlantic How Superstar Economics Is Killing the NFL's Ratings:

For years the National Football League has been the uncontested king of media in an age of fragmentation. ... After years of steady growth, the NFL’s average television audience fell 8 percent from the previous season.
[...]
The second factor is what you might call the superstar effect. To sustain an audience of tens of millions of weekly viewers, the NFL is principally in the business of minting football stars, whose storylines they can follow week to week, like episodes of a favorite scripted television show. The proof is in the numbers. The few 2016 games that exceeded last year’s audience had the biggest recognizable stars and rivalries.
[...]
Sports are not so different from film. What national audiences desire above all are heroes, compelling challenges, and sequels. But the NFL’s universe of superheroes is surprisingly sparse at this particular moment. Consider a commercial proxy for the league’s biggest stars: the players with the most corporate endorsements in 2015. In just two years, the list has been decimated with injuries, retirements, suspensions, and disappointments. Commercial king Peyton Manning has retired, and so has candy king Marshawn Lynch. JJ Watt is injured, and so is Tony Romo. Drew Brees has missed the playoffs for a third straight year. Eli Manning has been a below-average quarterback since the middle of the Obama administration, while Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson have been alternately brilliant and confounding.
And then, this line:

Tom Brady remains transcendent, but the league puzzlingly celebrated his transcendence by making him the first citizen to be prosecuted under Boyle’s Law.



I don't get the author citing "this Thanksgiving’s showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins was the most-watched NFL regular season game since the 1990s." as evidence of the superstar effect.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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The Cowboys & Patriots/Steelers SB will blow previous SB ratings out of the water and all will be forgotten until next year.
 

TFisNEXT

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The Cowboys & Patriots/Steelers SB will blow previous SB ratings out of the water and all will be forgotten until next year.
The league is definitely praying that Atlanta doesn't make the SB. As long as Dallas is still alive their ratings will be awesome on the NFC side. They probably want the Chiefs out on the AFC side (I'm assuming Houston has zero chance to advance)...though KC/NE would probably still draw well, just not as good as PIT/NE and they wouldn't want to risk KC winning in the AFC champ round. A KC/ATL super bowl is probably their nightmare.

But I think if a DAL/NE Super Bowl happened, the ratings scale would shatter.
 

Marciano490

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The league is definitely praying that Atlanta doesn't make the SB. As long as Dallas is still alive their ratings will be awesome on the NFC side. They probably want the Chiefs out on the AFC side (I'm assuming Houston has zero chance to advance)...though KC/NE would probably still draw well, just not as good as PIT/NE and they wouldn't want to risk KC winning in the AFC champ round. A KC/ATL super bowl is probably their nightmare.

But I think if a DAL/NE Super Bowl happened, the ratings scale would shatter.
My thoughts too. Kind of pisses me off the league will likely end up with a compelling matchup. People will watch NE/Pitt and Dal/GB and NE/SEA.
 

Zososoxfan

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The league is definitely praying that Atlanta doesn't make the SB. As long as Dallas is still alive their ratings will be awesome on the NFC side. They probably want the Chiefs out on the AFC side (I'm assuming Houston has zero chance to advance)...though KC/NE would probably still draw well, just not as good as PIT/NE and they wouldn't want to risk KC winning in the AFC champ round. A KC/ATL super bowl is probably their nightmare.

But I think if a DAL/NE Super Bowl happened, the ratings scale would shatter.
Atlanta is the 10th biggest TV market in the US - substantially bigger than Milwaukee/Green Bay and, albeit by a smaller margin, than Seattle too. What am I missing?

1. NYC
2. LA
3. Chicago
4. Philly
5. Dallas
6. Bay Area
7. DC
8. Houston
9. Boston
10. Atlanta

11. Tampa
12. Phoenix
13. Detroit
14. Seattle
15. Minny
16. Miami
17. Denver
18. Orlando
19. Cleveland
20. Sacto
21. St. Louis
22. Charlotte
23. Pitt
24. Raleigh
25. Portland
26. Baltimore
27. Indy
28. San Diego (pour out your 40)
29. Nashville
30. Hartford
32. Columbus, OH
33. Kansas City
34. Salt Lake
35. Milwaukee
36. Cincy
 

Marciano490

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Nobody turns in to watch Matty Ice and the Falcons. It's better to have a smaller city with a bigger draw than a big city with no outside draw. It's like saying South Bend is tiny, why was Notre Dame such a ratings powerhouse.

And, damn, Dallas is huge.
 

finnVT

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I'm guessing it's because for the superbowl, they need to draw significantly out-of-market, regardless of which markets are involved. So you need teams to national draw/pedigree/recognition.
 

Zososoxfan

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I feel like the Falcons with their explosive offense would make for a high-scoring SB. Matty Ice may not be a huge draw but Julio is certainly marketable. Any combo of Pitt/Pats/Packers/Falcons probably leads to a high-scoring and exciting SB. Does this stuff even matter for the SB? How would TV ratings rank for the CCGs:

1. DAL vs. SEA
2. GB vs. SEA
3. DAL vs. ATL
4. GB vs. ATL

AFC I assume goes:

1. NEP vs. PIT
2. NEP vs. KC
3. HOU vs. PIT
4. HOU vs. KC