The 2016 World Series. How the Red Sox helped build this year's champion.

TimScribble

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I have this unhealthy obsession reliving decisions of the past. A revisionist's history if you will. Maybe I have a glutton for punishment or maybe I'm one of those people that over analyzes every decision in life, thinking about what I could have done differently. Saying all of that, I can't help but watch the three remaining teams (Cubs, Indians, Dodgers) and think about how the Red Sox had help in creating all these teams.

2016 Los Angeles Dodgers. The team that the Red Sox probably have the smallest impact on is the Dodgers. The heart of the Dodgers line up is their first baseman, Adrian Gonzalez. We're all pretty familiar with how Gonzalez arrived with the Dodgers. The infamous 2012 "Nick Punto" trade unloaded the Red Sox of the financial burden of Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett. But in doing so, the Red Sox created a void at first base that they have struggled to fill since (more on that to come).

2016 Cleveland Indians. In 2012, Terry Francona was named manager for the Cleveland Indians. Francona was of course the manager of the 2004/2007 Red Sox World Series champions. Say what you want about Terry, but he might be the best Red Sox manager of our lifetimes. Francona brought leadership and playoff experience to a young Indians team. The Red Sox let him go after 2011.

But it doesn't stop there for the Indians. Perhaps the best weapon that the Indians have this year is Andrew Miller. The ALCS MVP had 4 appearances allowing no runs in 7 2/3 innings with 14 K's. Miller, as we all know, changed his career path with the Red Sox. He went from a struggling starter to a dominant middle reliever/closer. In 2014, he was traded to the Orioles for Eduardo Rodriguez. After the season, he signed with the Yankees at $12 million/year as the Red Sox deemed the contract too expensive. Miller was traded to the Yankees this year in what added to the new young core of New York and also gave the Indians the piece they needed to complete their team.

2016 Chicago Cubs. Where to start? Probably with the brain child himself, Theo Epstein. The Red Sox may not have had a choice in his departure or maybe the Lucchino relations did push him away, either way, Theo did great things for the Red Sox organization. And he is continuing his success with the Cubs.

The Cubs pitching staff has been one of the best in baseball this year. And two of the reasons it's been so good? Jon Lester and John Lackey. The Red Sox botched negotiations with Lester before ending up trading him for Yoenis Cespedes which ended up bringing Rick Porcello. Personally, I would rather Lester than Porcello, but in defense of the Red Sox, Lester was struggling when they made their initial low ball offer.

John Lackey was traded also, but the return has been subpar. Joe Kelly and Allen Craig have been less than stellar in Red Sox uniforms. Lackey may not have returned when his contract was over, but he did end up signing with the same team as Lester and Epstein.

One more Cubs piece. Their all-star first baseman, Anthony Rizzo. The Red Sox traded Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, and Reymond Fuentes for Adrian Gonzalez. Rizzo would later be sent to the Cubs in one of Theo's deals.

A 2016 Red Sox team could have looked like:
1B - Anthony Rizzo
2B - Dustin Pedroia
SS - Xander
3B - Travis Shaw
DH - David Ortiz
RF - Mookie Betts
CF - JBJ
LF - ?
C - Leon

SP
Lester
Lackey
Buch
Wright
?
RP
Koji
Miller
Tazawa
Barnes

With Terry and Theo.

This post is filled with ifs and maybes and probably would not have shaken out this way. And there would be other drawbacks. For one, the Red Sox probably aren't in a position to draft Benintendi. But also, maybe the Red Sox don't trade Espinoza or Margot.

I had a surgical procedure today, so feel free to blame all this wishcasting on those meds and tell me how wrong this is. Still, it's interesting to look at the current playoff teams and think what if...
 
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Lose Remerswaal

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I was waiting for the Rich Hill/Josh Reddick portion of the program. Not that I think Reddick would be a step up from our new, young outfield. But Rich Hill in the rotation might have been nice. I mean if we're wishcasting since they had enough starters to begin the year and I'm not sure his numbers would have been better than Wright's
 

TimScribble

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When I initially thought about this, I planned on including Rich Hill. Just plain forgot when writing it. He's a pretty big piece of the Dodgers playoff success.
 

simplicio

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Less of a one that got away situation, but don't leave out Dave Roberts, who's managing the hell out of the Dodgers club in a way that strikes me as pretty Tito-esque.
 

moondog80

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The Red Sox weren't in a position to essentially guarantee Rich Hill a slot in the rotation the way the A's were.
 

TimScribble

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Less of a one that got away situation, but don't leave out Dave Roberts, who's managing the hell out of the Dodgers club in a way that strikes me as pretty Tito-esque.
That's a good point. Removing the wishcasting aspect of it, I think it's remarkable to see all the Boston ties to the remaining teams.
 

KiltedFool

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Mapping all the links between and through the Cubs, Tribe, Sox, Jays and Dodgers would take a map like xkcd tends to make. The number of subplots is ridiculous.
 

grimshaw

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I have this unhealthy obsession reliving decisions of the past. A revisionist's history if you will. Maybe I have a glutton for punishment or maybe I'm one of those people that over analyzes every decision in life, thinking about what I could have done differently. Saying all of that, I can't help but watch the three remaining teams (Cubs, Indians, Dodgers) and think about how the Red Sox had help in creating all these teams.

2016 Los Angeles Dodgers. The team that the Red Sox probably have the smallest impact on is the Dodgers. The heart of the Dodgers line up is their first baseman, Adrian Gonzalez. We're all pretty familiar with how Gonzalez arrived with the Dodgers. The infamous 2012 "Nick Punto" trade unloaded the Red Sox of the financial burden of Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett. But in doing so, the Red Sox created a void at first base that they have struggled to fill since (more on that to come).
Mike Napoli at 1B was a huge contributor to the teams 2013 World Series win for a lot less money and Gonzalez is just an average player at this point in his career. The do over the Sox got as a result was absolutely instrumental as well to that win. That trade was a slam dunk win for the Red Sox, one of the best they've ever had regardless of the fringe guys they got back. I think at this point, the Red Sox contribution is a complete non-factor.

Trading Rizzo was probably the move that bugged me the most. He was tearing up the minors and it was clear he was going to be a monster. Then again - Theo traded him bolstering his future success in Chicago, so really we can't have that one both ways.

Lackey was out of their control no matter what, and they signed Porcello for less money and more prime years in lieu of Lester. I think we need to call that one a wash at this moment, and potentially a long term win. Porcello has his one year gut punch, and the back end of Lester's deal is not likely to end well.

Bottom line, only one of those teams in 2017 will match the one World Series win the Red Sox have since any of these moves, and few can argue they aren't set up for contention for at least the next few years. Their franchise hasn't been in better shape since 2004.
 
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TimScribble

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I remember EV I believe, clamoring for Boston to resign Beltre and keep Youk at 1B. That would have kept Rizzo at Boston. Certainly would be interesting to see how that one played out if it went that route.
 

simplicio

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Also, from Spier's newsletter a couple days ago:

Meanwhile, Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner’s homer against Jake Arrieta offered a different sort of reminder. According to multiple major league sources, the Red Sox thought they were on the cusp of signing the third baseman to a minor league deal before the 2014 season, after the Mets had released him. Instead, the Dodgers swooped in late and signed the Southern California native to a one-year, $1 million deal.

In the subsequent three years, Turner has hit .296/.364/.492, quietly emerging as a star. There is a chance that, as a free agent this winter, he will command more than the five-year, $95 million deal that the Red Sox conferred upon Pablo Sandoval after the 2014 season. Of course, had the Red Sox in fact landed Turner, there’s an excellent chance they wouldn’t have been in the market for Sandoval that winter.
That could have had a substantial effect: no '14 Drew, no X at 3b, no Panda, Shaw as backup or trade bait.
 

nvalvo

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Mapping all the links between and through the Cubs, Tribe, Sox, Jays and Dodgers would take a map like xkcd tends to make. The number of subplots is ridiculous.
Part of this is a thing that always interests me, the way certain FOs seem to have distinctive taste in players, and those tastes can overlap. Some players, of course, are obviously great, and all teams are going to be interested. It's the fringier guys, guys with particular limitations, where this is clear.

The most famous example is that the Twins don't seem to care about strikeout rates for starting pitchers. The stats bear this one out. But more subtly, when the Rays acquired Brad Miller, that seemed retroactively obvious to me. Of course TB wants a low-range shortstop who can't hit for average but has respectable power to play the 1B/LF (Miller sounds kind of like Hanley, now that I type it out). But I would have been shocked if Anaheim or St. Louis had acquired Miller. Cleveland and Oakland have long seemed to like a lot of the same players, although I wonder if that will survive Shapiro moving to Toronto. Pronk would have made a *ton* of sense as an Athletic, right?

I guess what I'm saying is that it's a good thing if your FO is interested in all the same players as successful teams. You can't draw the same thick mesh of relationships between the Tribe, Dodgers, Cubs and... the Diamondbacks, let's say.

Although with Hazen in charge, that will probably change over a few seasons.
 

trekfan55

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First off, and it pains me to write this, but Tito is gone after 2011 no matter what happened in the FO.

Second, it is usual and normal for teams to offer "upgrades" to members of other teams' front offices. So the Cubs offered Theo the upgraded job of President of baseball operations. Whether the FO should have "fought for him" or fired LL then and offered Theo his job is the question. But Theo took that chance and I don't blame him.

I am also on board the revisionist history train of signing Beltre, leaving Youks at 1B and eventually bringing up Rizzo. The only quibble I have is that I was informed that the draft picks for losing Beltre netted Swihart and JBJ.
 

simplicio

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I've always wondered about that last bit- doesn't not having JBJ in the pipeline mean we outbid NY to retain Dreamboat? Yuck.
 

TimScribble

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They probably still let him go and see if Fuentes takes his place.
 

JimD

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Theo is on record as believing that that executives like him have a 10-year shelf life before it's time to move on. The Cubs were going to get him sooner or later.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I remember EV I believe, clamoring for Boston to resign Beltre and keep Youk at 1B. That would have kept Rizzo at Boston. Certainly would be interesting to see how that one played out if it went that route.
IIRC, EV wanted to move Beltre into LF in that scenario, because he wanted to keep Beltre AND trade for Gonzalez.

Which, you know, was crazypants.
 

TimScribble

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Was that it? I thought his premise was entirely that Boston is going after the wrong Adrian. But what you said wouldn't shock me.