NFL's Declining Viewership: One Slice at a Time
- Thread starter tims4wins
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Even John Harbaugh notes that the salary cap has lead to talent dilution because you have to pay your several stars and then you have to skimp on the rest.
And the rookies because of reduced practice time in college and pros don't have the necessary technique - where to have their hands, where to have their eyes, footwork, etc.
I also think the NFL's "parity driven" schedule also is to blame. A decent team with a last place schedule could be a playoff contender one year and then a cellar-dweller the next all because of the teams it plays (see Jets; Ravens from a couple of years back; etc.).
There are only two games per year dictated by where you finished the prior year. I think that's overblown in terms of reasons why teams can be good one year and shitty the next.
I can't speak for anyone else, but I've had season tickets for about 25 years. For a solid 15 year period, I missed a total of one home game. Over the past 5 years, I'm averaging about 3 games a year (but it's not like my seats go unused), but I still consume football at an insane level. I'm just consuming it differently now. I no longer watch the most of the primetime games (except Pats games and a few other exceptions), but instead, I follow them online while watching/doing something else. During the non-Patriot Sunday block, I am glued to the Red Zone channel, and most everyone I know that used to watch football all day, is also watching Red Zone. I have no idea what their ratings are like, but I can't imagine they aren't taking a fairly sizeable chunk of the crowd that used to watch whatever game was on that Sunday. I think between the red zone channel, and the ability to follow the games in real time online, it explains a very big dip in the ratings for the games. Why watch Arizona/Seattle right now when the game stinks, and I can get immediate fantasy updates a million different ways, and frankly, at this point in the season, that's the only reason I care what happens between those two teams (and I'm guessing the non-fantasy playing, but instead betting public is along the same lines).
I think the concussion stuff, the national anthem stuff, the rules/no fun/penalties, etc. stuff is all window dressing. Sure, there are some folks out there that no longer will watch because of those things, but I think the vast majority of viewers they are losing are being lost to consumption in another way. I watch college football all day on Saturday the same way, except there is no Red Zone channel for that, so I have the app open on my TV, which allows me to keep a box open that tells me where every game is and what the score is, and I just click the game, and it takes me to that channel, and I'm following every other game online at the same time. The computer killed the television. The computer and the Red Zone channel.
I think the concussion stuff, the national anthem stuff, the rules/no fun/penalties, etc. stuff is all window dressing. Sure, there are some folks out there that no longer will watch because of those things, but I think the vast majority of viewers they are losing are being lost to consumption in another way. I watch college football all day on Saturday the same way, except there is no Red Zone channel for that, so I have the app open on my TV, which allows me to keep a box open that tells me where every game is and what the score is, and I just click the game, and it takes me to that channel, and I'm following every other game online at the same time. The computer killed the television. The computer and the Red Zone channel.
I have to say I'm enjoying this Seahawks-Cardinals game (3-0 in 4th qtr). Both defenses are flying all over the field and making some tremendous plays. It's been a long time since I've seen a game like this where it's not a pass-happy track meet. It doesn't happen to the same degree in the NFL, but I'm tired of the 55-52 games you see in the Big 12 these days- that's not football. This is intense and it's fun to watch, even if it's sloppy from an offensive standpoint.
Much better this than a desultory 20-14 game between two mediocre teams.
Much better this than a desultory 20-14 game between two mediocre teams.
The thing that's amazing is that college football is a totally offensively-oriented game – and while I don't enjoy it as much as I did the pro game up until a few years ago, it's really fun to watch.
Where the NCAA game feels like this high energy affair where offenses are generally far more talented than the defenses, by contrast the NFL's super-offensive game sucks because the result derives almost entirely not from talent but rather from arbitrarily enforced rules designed to tilt the balance toward the offensive side of the ball. It's just not a lot of fun.
Where the NCAA game feels like this high energy affair where offenses are generally far more talented than the defenses, by contrast the NFL's super-offensive game sucks because the result derives almost entirely not from talent but rather from arbitrarily enforced rules designed to tilt the balance toward the offensive side of the ball. It's just not a lot of fun.
ESPN Goalline is more or less RedZone for college. If there isn't a compelling game on it's what I watch on Saturdays.
The data I had seen showed the exact opposite in yearly trends, but I'm having a tough time sourcing where they got their info from as it doesn't match up with the PFR or ESPN data. I know that like MLB there is some discrepancy on butts in seats vs purchased tickets and I'm wondering if that other site used actual attendance vs sold seats? Either way the data was crap clearly, so thanks for clear data.
Didja see the BC game on Saturday? 34K was the attendance. Couldn't have been more than 5000 butts in seats
An article in the Guardian about a possible similar trend in the UK with regards to association football:
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/oct/24/sky-sports-bt-sport-people-switching-football-off
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/oct/24/sky-sports-bt-sport-people-switching-football-off
well... This isn't good
mulvihill79
Update on year to year NFL viewership through Week 7 Regionalized FOX: -1% CBS: -9% Non-Regionalized TNF: -18% SNF: -19% MNF: -24%
10/25/16, 10:09 AM
mulvihill79
Update on year to year NFL viewership through Week 7 Regionalized FOX: -1% CBS: -9% Non-Regionalized TNF: -18% SNF: -19% MNF: -24%
10/25/16, 10:09 AM
I couldn't be happier about the ratings decline. I really hope it changes their behavior and makes the game more watchable, like it used to be.
Goodell being fired would be the cherry on top.
Goodell being fired would be the cherry on top.
Screw the game, I'm tuning in for the color rush uniforms! They add so much excitement to the game!
I don't know, maybe give them Gulden's mustard.Hope it's a rematch of last year's "piss vs. water" showdown!
Relative strength of Fox is Cowboys-related, correct? Without Zeke/Dak/winning, they're with CBS at -9% or lower, I would presume.
The thing about the color rush uniforms I don't get is that they're always described as a "money grab" by the NFL, an attempt to sell more jerseys or whatever. But seriously, who the fuck is actually buying these things? Has anyone here ever seen or heard of anyone ever actually purchasing or wearing a color rush jersey? I don't know if they release sales numbers, but I'd be amazed if they sell in any kind of significant numbers.
I bought it as a gift.
Also, 100% of the proceeds are supposed to go to the NFL Foundation, so it's not a straight cash grab.
Make commercial breaks for national games the standard length, not 1-2 minutes longer, eliminate TV timeouts, less commercials between extra points/kicks/turnovers/etc.
In theory if ratings go down, sponsors will pay less. There's too many sponsors now, so hopefully instead of 100 spots or whatever to fill, they have 75 and can sell the 75 for a premium rather than just diluting the product and the advertising with a million ads.
I have 0% hope of this happening but it'd make the paying sponsors more relevant and the games better to watch.
Right, just like Breast Cancer Awareness Month, another NFL scam:
http://www.si.com/thecauldron/2015/10/26/nfl-breast-cancer-month-deangelo-williams
Just the NFL sticking up for women once again! Let's all sell some pink gloves, jerseys and hats!
You obviously have never changed a diaper of a teething baby.Hope it's a rematch of last year's "piss vs. water" showdown!
If they have too many sponsors, why do I see the same ads fifteen times a game, including back to back breaks ?
Great article from the LA Times that touches on most of the theories discussed here, without settling on any one explanation. Interesting note: the author points to the modest drops in CBS and Fox ratings compared to the steep prime time drops and hypothesizes that fans are still watching their local team, but are less likely to watch national games.
http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/cotown/la-et-ct-nfl-ratings-20161025-snap-story.html
http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/cotown/la-et-ct-nfl-ratings-20161025-snap-story.html
Ooof
AustinKarp
World Series Game 5 (15.3 overnight rating) beat Cowboys-Eagles overtime game last night by 32% (11.6 for Sunday Night Football)
10/31/16, 7:02 AM
AustinKarp
World Series Game 5 (15.3 overnight rating) beat Cowboys-Eagles overtime game last night by 32% (11.6 for Sunday Night Football)
10/31/16, 7:02 AM
Interesting article in The Washington Post.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/redskins/the-nfl-is-becoming-more-disturbing-than-appealing-and-tv-viewers-are-tuning-out/2016/10/31/71466610-9f95-11e6-a44d-cc2898cfab06_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories-2_jenkins-0605pm:homepage/story
Author takes a position that the league has let marketing get in the way of the game. Resulting overemphasis on brand and shield have led to increasingly petty attention to discipline and uniformity. On the field this means more penalties and play stoppages (holding penalties and defensive pass interference have increased 43% and 45% respectively since 2011). Off the field bungled discipline issues are turning potential viewers off.
Selfishly I hope the increased media attention to declining ratings leads to the end of the Goodell era however I don't have much confidence that the owners would replace him with anyone significantly better.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/redskins/the-nfl-is-becoming-more-disturbing-than-appealing-and-tv-viewers-are-tuning-out/2016/10/31/71466610-9f95-11e6-a44d-cc2898cfab06_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories-2_jenkins-0605pm:homepage/story
Author takes a position that the league has let marketing get in the way of the game. Resulting overemphasis on brand and shield have led to increasingly petty attention to discipline and uniformity. On the field this means more penalties and play stoppages (holding penalties and defensive pass interference have increased 43% and 45% respectively since 2011). Off the field bungled discipline issues are turning potential viewers off.
Selfishly I hope the increased media attention to declining ratings leads to the end of the Goodell era however I don't have much confidence that the owners would replace him with anyone significantly better.
So if you were the emperor of the NFL, how would you try to turn the ratings thing around?
My first moves would be to:
1) Change the pregame protocol so that players are in the locker room for the national anthem (impossible in real life for political reasons), and;
2) Simplify the catch rule so that there isn't a replay required for every catch/no-catch call
3) Loosen up the rules on pass defense so that PI and defensive holding aren't technically happening on every single play, and so that they are clearer to see/call when they do happen
4) Eliminate replay except during the last few minutes of a game, and make everything reviewable during that time
My first moves would be to:
1) Change the pregame protocol so that players are in the locker room for the national anthem (impossible in real life for political reasons), and;
2) Simplify the catch rule so that there isn't a replay required for every catch/no-catch call
3) Loosen up the rules on pass defense so that PI and defensive holding aren't technically happening on every single play, and so that they are clearer to see/call when they do happen
4) Eliminate replay except during the last few minutes of a game, and make everything reviewable during that time
The play stoppages are terrible. I am so over instant replay. The red flag shit has to go. Have someone in the booth review turnovers/scores/completions and buzz down if it's obvious fuck up.
I've started watching EPL, they fuck up calls all the time BIGLY, but you know what? They aren't stopping the game every five minutes to act like they're on the Warren Commission examining the zapruder film.
5) Shoot Goodell in the head.
I know I have a heavy Pats bias ('nooooooooo!") but between Goodell continually making bad decisions that make his league look like a band of buffoons (player discipline, focusing on silly things like excessive celebrations and general douchebaggery) and the general low regard with which he is held by many fans, even outside NE, I think that would be a very important first move.
I would also install cameras on the goal lines. The only reason I can think of for not having done so right now is that BB called for it. This is not exactly a macro point but it does seem ridiculous that the NFL has not taken that step.
nm...no way to respond here that doesn't lead to an insufferable political discussion. Let's talk about the other points.
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Agree with you on the national anthem, except I don't think it's infeasible. Start the anthem 10 minutes earlier and combine it with some super-awesome tribute to the troops, or first responders, or whatever. Have the players take the field at the end of the big patriotic celebration, then move straight to the coin toss, then the kickoff. I'd go to great lengths to stop my players from using work time to make a political protest that hurts my business.
I wouldn't change the PI rules as broadly as you would, but I'd make "no Flaccoing" a point of emphasis. Remember a couple weeks ago when Richard Sherman grabbed Julio Jones's arm on a desperation jump ball on 4th down in the final minute of the game, and nothing was called? That shit was awesome. The no-call in that situation should become consistent, so that fans get used to it. In time, that will mean more games decided by players, and fewer decided by officials.
I would increase the penalty for offensive holding -- maybe 10 yards plus loss of down. The way to deal with too many offensive holding calls is to have less offensive holding.
The cumulative effect of these changes would be to dampen the offensive explosion we've seen the past few years and shorten the average game by a few minutes.
I would also move disciplinary appeals to an independent third party, which will allow Sheriff Roger to take a hard line, then blame some faceless arbitrator when Player X gets a slap on the wrist for beating his girlfriend. While I was at it, I'd get rid of testing for recreational drugs -- no reason to tarnish the league's image over players' party habits, unless they get arrested. These moves would be popular with players; in exchange, I'd negotiate some concessions on schedule flexibility -- isn't the end of the world if last year's division winners play two TNF games each and eight shitty teams don't play on Thursday at all. You're never going to have marquee games in all three prime-time slots every week, but you should be able to avoid matchups like Jacksonville-Tennessee. (You could do more here, such as making MNF matchups better, but I think that has to wait until TV deals are up for renegotiation.)
Lastly, I would begin a succession plan with an eye toward replacing Goodell in a couple of years. From the owners' perspective, he has been a terrific commissioner, but good chief executives often tarnish their legacies by staying too long -- take that decision out of his hands. If he's too young to retire and wants a new challenge, I'll bet the NHL would jump at the chance to hire him. The owners can pocket Goodell's success on TV deals, labor relations and concussions, but have a public face that isn't associated with the hardball they had to play to get those wins.
None of these ideas would magically cure what ails the NFL, but it's clear they need to return to the idea that they're a business that needs to work hard to retain the loyalty and patronage of their consumers.
