2016 Texas Longhorn Football: The End of the Beginning

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag said:

Most all are the highest paid state employee by a good chunk. How much higher should the number be?

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They make plenty, but not enough in the current professional world of P5 college sports. The alumni at ND are already passing the hat to dump Kelly and get Urban.

Don't hate on the Gators and other modern programs. All that Texas money won the Horns a whopping 4 national titles and one since 1970. Alabama, Michigan, ND, Texas, USC and the rest of the era enjoyed and took advantage of the same system that allowed UCLA to dominate the college basketball world.

All of those "old" titles were won and rightfully enjoyed, but in an era just like UCONN and Tennessee in women's hoops.

Funny talking about Vince and Eli; biggest thing Strong did right at Louisville, he didn't do at Texas, which is walk in the door with an elite QB. Imagine if he brought in a Teddy Bridgewater on day one. It papers over a lot of flaws, and buys a coach a lot of time. If Texas had better QB play and went, say 8-5 the last two years, I think fans would tolerate a rough season. Today, if a coach doesn't nail the QB position in year one or two, he has to do almost everything else right to win. It's possible, LSU did it a lot of seasons, Bama's had to do it, heck KState and VaTech magically do it sometimes, but they had longer term coaches; new coaches really need to have a guy behind center who gets fans to buy in. Strong recruits other positions well, but Bridgewater fell into his lap when Miami fired Shannon and TBW flipped to Louisville. I think Buechele can be the guy, his stats are better than Bridgewater's at the same point, but it might be too little to late. (and as a trend, TBW didn't start right away either).

Infield Infidel said:

Funny talking about Vince and Eli; biggest thing Strong did right at Louisville, he didn't do at Texas, which is walk in the door with an elite QB. Imagine if he brought in a Teddy Bridgewater on day one. It papers over a lot of flaws, and buys a coach a lot of time. If Texas had better QB play and went, say 8-5 the last two years, I think fans would tolerate a rough season. Today, if a coach doesn't nail the QB position in year one or two, he has to do almost everything else right to win. It's possible, LSU did it a lot of seasons, Bama's had to do it, heck KState and VaTech magically do it sometimes, but they had longer term coaches; new coaches really need to have a guy behind center who gets fans to buy in. Strong recruits other positions well, but Bridgewater fell into his lap when Miami fired Shannon and TBW flipped to Louisville. I think Buechele can be the guy, his stats are better than Bridgewater's at the same point, but it might be too little to late. (and as a trend, TBW didn't start right away either).

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I'm glad you brought this up because this is actually the main reason why I'm not joining the chorus to run Strong out of town just yet (a close second being that he runs a clean program, allowing us to maintain the high road against programs like rapey). Recall that his QB was supposed to be David Ash. In his last full season, Ash showed remarkable improvement and orchestrated that beautiful comeback against Oregon Sate in the Alamo Bowl. But he lost the entirety of the 2013 season - necessitating the Swoopes disaster - and he ended up playing only one game for Strong.

He actually would have been a Senior last year, thanks to the medical redshirt he got for 2013. Things would look vastly different had he been able to stay healthy. I will grant that failing to recruit a viable backup QB is on Strong but losing Ash was a major kick in the nuts. Losing two straight QBs (Gilbert and Ash) can send any program reeling, especially one in transition like Texas was (or is?).

So who coaches the tire fire in 2017? I don't see Herman coming here.

Two steps forward, four steps back. Bye bye, Charlie. We hardly knew ye.

Landed in Indianapolis to the loss alert.

I hope they lose out so there is no debate about firing Charlie.

Is it Hermann first choice and Miles 2nd, for a replacement?

Miles only makes sense if they want to hire someone immediately after the season. Aside from that, I'd have no interest in him.

For anyone else, they'd have to wait until after the bowl season, meaning they would be handicapped in their recruiting efforts.

They have to hire an AD first.

Ale Xander said:

Is it Hermann first choice and Miles 2nd, for a replacement?

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Heard on the radio on the way home from some dude named Benjamin Albright that Tom Herman to Texas is "all but official". On the phone so the best I can do right now is this link that sources his tweet:

https://www.google.com/amp/larrybrownsports.com/college-football/tom-herman-texas-all-but-official/330127/amp

That's actually the best Google can do too.

Texas isn't firing any head coach midseason unless he kills Bevo, so I don't buy that report.

Kremlin Watcher said:

Fucking brilliant. A guy has one good season at a mid-major and he's all of a sudden qualified to lead Texas to the promised land.

Where have I read this script before?

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Yeah, but he's white, so he won't have Red McCombs sniping at him from the very start.

Fucking hell, how did we get here?

Kremlin Watcher said:

Ask Mike Campbell and Darrell Royal. If the Regents hadn't fucked up Coach Royal's design for the continued success of the program, we'd be counting the natties with two hands. Coach Royal was a genius coach and a master program architect. But instead of relying on his skill and knowledge of the game and of coaching, the Regents handed the keys to Freddy so they could put Coach Royal in his place. Absent the anomalous Mack Brown success of 2000-2009, we have been a pretty shitty program ever since. When Texas football succeeds, it does so in spite of itself. Some days, like Saturday, I want to go to Austin and burn Bellmont to the ground.

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I was really hoping you'd make me feel better. You didn't.

As for the bolded, get your torch ready because here comes Baylor. That game is going to be a bloodbath.

Kremlin Watcher said:

We might see the first mid-season firing in program history. And I am ok with that. Hand the interim title to Gilbert and see what he can do. Can't be worse and frankly his credentials aren't really that much lesser than Herman (who seems to be merrily driving off a cliff at the moment).

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The problem with firing him midseason - and I really believe this may be the main reason - is that the defensive coaching staff would end up a smoldering ruin. Unless the Strong-Bedford relationship was torched due to the latter's demotion, there's a reasonable chance Bedford (and some of his underlings?) bails along with Charlie. Now, that may not necessarily be a bad thing going forward but the team would tank in spectacular fashion and severely harm next year's recruiting class.

Ordinarily, midseason coaching changes are of the addition by subtraction variety but I don't think they've lost the locker room to the degree where that would be true. I seriously doubt we'll see a coaching change before the TCU game. I fully expect them to fire Charlie immediately after that game and announce the hiring of the next coach (with whom they will already have a handshake agreement) after he finishes his last regular season game*.

*Discounting Les Miles here because I'm not really a fan of that option.

Maybe a little.

But you have every reason to be. This program has been a shit show since the moment Colt got injured in the MNC. That's seven years of absolute fucking misery with a mere, tiny glimmer of hope a few years ago when David Ash pistol whipped Oregon State in the Alamo Bowl.

I mean, I started this season with high hopes of six wins and playing in a crappy bowl as a sign of progress. Now I don't see five wins as even a remote possibility.

I'm skeptical that Royal's hand-picked successor -- or anyone else -- would've avoid getting his clocked cleaned by Barry Switzer and others in the recruiting wars

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In the moments before you clicked 'Post', did you consider looking up what actually happened in the years after Royal retired?

ethangl said:

In the moments before you clicked 'Post', did you consider looking up what actually happened in the years after Royal retired?

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Is there a good book that chronicles this? I'm creeping ever closer to finishing the book I'm currently reading and I wouldn't object to a book on this subject being next in line.

Or perhaps an e-book of the newsletter written by @Kremlin Watcher?

Kremlin Watcher said:

There are some decent books on Texas football history. Most have various biases, but you could look at some of the following for some accounts of some of the more memorable moments concerning Coach Royal:

Texas Caesar: Darrell K. Royal 1924 - 2012 - a bio of DKR.
Meat on the Hoof - an expose of the seamy underbelly off Texas football.
Horns, Hogs, and Nixon Coming - a pretty fast-paced story of the '69 team and the Game of the Century between the Horns and the Hogs.

The Regents treated him like shit. It wasn't until Mack came back that he recognized the value of Coach Royal's legacy and how important he was to all of us. We worshiped Coach Royal and could never understand why they treated him like that. It was finally fitting to have the stadium named after him during his lifetime.

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Thanks for this. Skimming through the reviews, I have a feeling I'll regret reading Meat on the Hoof but that sounds like it would be a really good read.

I think 1983 was a massive turning point for them, when they got to the Cotton Bowl unbeaten and lost to Georgia (on a muffed punt iirc). Had they won, they would have been the only undefeated team, with a win over an Auburn team that just stomped on everyone else. It's possible that voters still would have jumped Miami over them when they beat Nebraska, but that would have been hard to do with Texas' resume. Akers was gone a couple of years later; had they won that game the program could have gone in a much different direction.

So, barring a major disaster, it looks like they'll actually qualify for a bowl this year. It'll likely be a shit bowl played on December 23 but it'll give them a few extra weeks of practice and extra exposure to recruits. I still don't think Strong survives but things do get a little interesting if they beat WVU next weekend. The last two games are certainly winnable, leaving open the possibility of finishing with 8 wins should the impossible happen.

Of course, it's a fool's errand to hope for that so I'm 100% prepared to lose against WVU and TCU. But a small part of me still wants Charlie to succeed.

They look ugly, 103rd on yards per game vs FBS, but they are a less ugly 68th in yards per play. Pace in Big 12 is highest in the country. Texas is 5th on ypp in Big 12.

Inverse is true for the offense, 11th yards per game, 30th yards per play.

Talk about ugly, it's telling that I'm happy about holding Mahomes under 400 yards and 30 points. In Lubbock. Baby steps, indeed.

Them winning out will really piss me off. They need to cut bait and if he wins out they won't.

canderson said:

Them winning out will really piss me off. They need to cut bait and if he wins out they won't.

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Why? Strong seems to have straightened things out things out. Sure the defense could be better but aren't they young? The offense is moving the ball and scoring points. They have a quarterback next year.

Looking at your comments from the Penn state thread you thought they would be terrible but now Franklin has settled in and has his players out there, especially at qb. I think a similar thing happens next year for Strong. I'd give Strong one more year.

wonderland said:

Why? Strong seems to have straightened things out things out. Sure the defense could be better but aren't they young? The offense is moving the ball and scoring points. They have a quarterback next year.

Looking at your comments from the Penn state thread you thought they would be terrible but now Franklin has settled in and has his players out there, especially at qb. I think a similar thing happens next year for Strong. I'd give Strong one more year.

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Charlie Strong is the worst in-game coach I have ever seen lead a major college football program. That's why.

canderson said:

Charlie Strong is the worst in-game coach I have ever seen lead a major college football program. That's why.

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Even worse than Franklin who you called atrocious at game management prior to this season?

Obviously some coaches are better at it than others but I really believe the driving force behind it is the quarterback. A coach trusts a qb and that opens up everything. Give Buechele another season and I bet Strong looks a lot better on this front.

wonderland said:

Even worse than Franklin who you called atrocious at game management prior to this season?

Obviously some coaches are better at it than others but I really believe the driving force behind it is the quarterback. A coach trusts a qb and that opens up everything. Give Buechele another season and I bet Strong looks a lot better on this front.

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Yes. Franklin's issue was schemes. Strong has the worst special teams in the country, is in charge of one of the worst defenses in the country. Let's not forget he fucked up a COIN FLIP.

The offense is in great shape. The defense is an absolutely embarrassment. That's all on Strong.

I really, really like Strong. I really want him to succeed at UT and be there 20 years and have a huge legacy. But I see no improvement on anything he's touched to indicate it's happening. He's gone through multiple coordinators before finally landing one that can work.

you are being over dramatic.

The offense looks good, and it is just starting to come into its potential. There is still a freshman QB and the entire offense learning a new system. This offense won't truly click until about halfway through the second season, as the team gets synced on reading keys and maintaining pace. The offense is still prone to droughts and is fortunate enough to have Foreman and the run game to lean on.

The defense has shown definite signs of improvement since Strong took over. Oklahoma was a disaster, but since then Texas has been holding teams under their season averages and showing definite improvement. It is an incredibly young defense, and mistakes and inconsistency are to be expected. Simply looking at the unadjusted numbers is misleading, given the pace at which their own offense and the typical Big 12 school plays, as Infield Infidel points out.

That's not to say Strong is perfect. He's made some mistakes and some of the heat on him is well deserved. I've just come around to the position that he should get a 4th year. I think he inherited a team with a bad, entitled, culture and the with the cupboard bare at the QB position. Ash being medically DQ'ed made it even worse. Strong made a mistake with Watson, but to his credit fixed the mistake with Gilbert. Strong brought in Buechele and the future looks bright at the QB position with Ehlinger coming in behind Buechele. I think the Big 12 style of play was a learning curve for Strong, but I think he's getting it. He's recruited well given the circumstances, and i don't think there is any realistic candidate out there that is worth breaking up the momentum heading into next year.

All bets are off if the team regresses to close out the year, but if the trajectory on both offense and defense are both positive closing out the year, I think he deserves a 4th year.

canderson said:

Yes. Franklin's issue was schemes. Strong has the worst special teams in the country, is in charge of one of the worst defenses in the country. Let's not forget he fucked up a COIN FLIP.

The offense is in great shape. The defense is an absolutely embarrassment. That's all on Strong.

I really, really like Strong. I really want him to succeed at UT and be there 20 years and have a huge legacy. But I see no improvement on anything he's touched to indicate it's happening. He's gone through multiple coordinators before finally landing one that can work.

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I agree with much of what was said here (actually by both of you).

In game, Strong has been awful. Some of the decisions are flat out baffling and thoroughly indefensible. There have been way too many "WTF???" moments. The defense has been a mess since his arrival, and special teams has been central to some embarrassing losses (and made some games too close for comfort, like ND this year). I too like Charlie as a person. He's the kind of guy I want to root for, that I would feel comfortable helping my son grow into a man and so on, so it is hard letting him go.

On the flip side, the guy can recruit. You can't win without talent, and you can't be a consistent power without recruiting. Charlie gets it done on this front. Also, the defense has gotten better lately. I never felt like TT was going to score at the end of the game. Tech is a top offense, and the Horns only gave up 30 on defense (subtracting that insane 99 yard fumble return). And I do feel strictly using PPG against as a stat is unfair. The Big 12 is a high octane league. The offense doesn't do them many favors either. They can drive down the field in two minutes or less, putting the defense back on the field. Either they are three and out, or quick strike. I feel like the Malik never get a rest. Also the improvement of the offense shows that quick turn-around can happen.

I am on the fence on this one, but am leaning towards giving Charlie another year. Having said that, watch them lose to Kansas and end the argument right there.

Edit: What Lefty said...

Yeah, I can't agree with canderon's take that it would piss him off if they win out. That would be nothing but a good thing, made easier by the fact that their two toughest remaining games are at home - where the team is considerably better. That would be a really good problem to have.

And for the record, the defense isn't quite the disaster the raw stats would seem to suggest. Football Outsiders has them solidly mediocre at 57. I suspect that's right around where one would expect a five-win team from the Big 12 to be.

Bosoxen said:

it's telling

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I'm not sure what this means. Only a couple teams stand out as having done a notably better job against Tech's offense in Lubbock in the KK era.

They were at 0.502 points per play going into this game, home and road. 0.359 against us, including the defensive TD. That's not a baby step.

ethangl said:

I'm not sure what this means. Only a couple teams stand out as having done a notably better job against Tech's offense in Lubbock in the KK era.

They were at 0.502 points per play going into this game, home and road. 0.359 against us, including the defensive TD. That's not a baby step.

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What are you griping at me for? I'm not the one going all doom and gloom or declaring that winning out would be disastrous.

Yeah, I consider that a baby step. They still gave up almost 500 yards. Sure, they held sand aggy below their season average, on the road - and that's not nothing - but the defense is still far from a strength. I'd like to see it week in and week out before I consider them to have taken a big boy step.

I think it's completely understandable to be a Texas fan and see Michigan, Ohio St, big time schools with coaches on similar timelines as Strong, and want to see the same for Texas. I don't think there are as many coaches that can do that. Florida comes to mind as similar. Strong could do it as his players mature, but I think if Strong goes whoever replaces him has solid footing.

Edit - timelines not timeliness

Tip drills on the offensive side are a lost art

You can't catch that out of bounds for it to count

Good game, Texas friends. Fuck Brady Quinn for his replay gaff that gave me heart failure and made you guys elated for a second. Foreman is a man, kid has a ton of heart. Best of luck the rest of the way!

What's going on, guys?