About Gho$t...

GeorgeCostanza

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I wonder if the change in his kickoff style (priorizing height instead of just driving it) has caused some mechanical shift that's affecting his field goals.
Hope so, to quote the previous poster. Before this game I was certain of it. And when he banged home the long one I felt reassured. Then came the the hooked PAT and the squeak thru 31 yarder and I'm at hope so, fingers crossed, etc
 

mwonow

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Ghost? Dunno. But I've got absolute faith in BB and his relentless drive for special teams excellence. If he thinks Ghost has lost it, we'll see a new kicker. Remember the terrible punt from Lee Johnson/signing of Ken Walter?
 

steveluck7

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Anyone else watch the pre-game on CSN? Mike Giardi (or maybe Tom E. Curran) said they Ghost does not like the new field. Evidently it's softer than the previous turf. I guess the Patriots aren't fans but the Revolution really like it... priorities
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Anyone else watch the pre-game on CSN? Mike Giardi (or maybe Tom E. Curran) said they Ghost does not like the new field. Evidently it's softer than the previous turf. I guess the Patriots aren't fans but the Revolution really like it... priorities
AND he doen't like the field in Denver AND in Miami AND in Cleveland?

Dude's gotta start liking some fields STAT.

I expect he'll finish the season here -- there aren't any better kickers on the street, but if you have a 4th and 7 from the 36 yard line in a close big game don't be surprised to see the Pats go for it.

And don't be surprised to see a 4th round pick next year go for some kicker from South Dakota you never heard of.
 

soxfan121

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Good, I was going to ask you. Drop something in here when you're finished please. I'd like to take a look.
Indeed, because that stuff is so hard to find, what with the sidebar on the forum homepage and the URL and twitter and facebook and such.
 

Brand Name

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And don't be surprised to see a 4th round pick next year go for some kicker from South Dakota you never heard of.
Hypothetically, if they went the South Dakota State route, their kicker is Chase Vinatieri...Adam's nephew.

In all seriousness, looking forward to reading IdiotKicker's piece as always on the mechanical flaw. I personally had seen a bit of an issue with the rotation of hips on the follow through, but would trust the expert and someone with experience over my naked eye every day.
 

IdiotKicker

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So I've done a little more digging, and it's not quite as small of a fix as I thought. The miss against CIN almost suggest injury because his mechanics were so out of character, but there's some funky stuff going on there, which you normally don't see from Ghost. It's not that he can't or won't fix it - if there's one guy you can bet can self-diagnose, it's him. But it's really strange to see from him, because normally his misses are still clean mechanics but just bad timing or slight wrinkles. This is a very different swing than I've seen from him previously, and it's causing some problems. I'll have something out by Thursday.
 

Valek123

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Agreed, I think he is battling through a groin injury. Saw something live when he missed the first one and mentioned it in the game thread. Been trying to watch him (without the benefit of all 22) on kickoffs to see how he's been running to see if it shows up there also. Just seems like when you leave a iron open when trying to steer the ball and aim rather than follow through. Curious to see what you find on tape...
 

BaseballJones

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I'm no kicking expert, and I have no idea what's causing it, but every single one of his kicks seems to have a great deal of movement - even the ones he makes. Hardly anything this year has been truly straight. There's a knuckleball effect - the ball starts one way then suddenly shifts. Rarely (not always, but rarely) is it a true hook or slice. I've never seen his kicks have this much movement before.
 

CantKeepmedown

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I caught the end of Curran's spot on EEI earlier on. He mentioned that they they were redoing the field at Gillette today to some extent. I can't remember his exact wording, but a number of positional players had complained that it was too soft and were having trouble with their plant foot. Ordway asked if it was safe to assume one of those players was Ghost. Curran didn't say/know definitively, but that it had been a major complaint from the players.

Not sure to what, if any extent that would have on Ghost. But hopefully it's something that he can get figured out.
 

tims4wins

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So I've done a little more digging, and it's not quite as small of a fix as I thought. The miss against CIN almost suggest injury because his mechanics were so out of character, but there's some funky stuff going on there, which you normally don't see from Ghost. It's not that he can't or won't fix it - if there's one guy you can bet can self-diagnose, it's him. But it's really strange to see from him, because normally his misses are still clean mechanics but just bad timing or slight wrinkles. This is a very different swing than I've seen from him previously, and it's causing some problems. I'll have something out by Thursday.
Is there a reason you guys aren't linking your articles any more? Excellent work here on Ghost

http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/teams-nfl/afc-east/new-england-patriots/2016/10/21/stephen-gostkowski-fixable/
 

IdiotKicker

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Mostly because we've branched out to doing more NFL-wide stuff, and generally found it didn't get quite the same reception here as Pats-oriented articles. That's why we decided to go with the forum sidebar, rather than manually dropping in every article. But I was just coming to drop off that one, so glad you found it already.
 

tims4wins

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Mostly because we've branched out to doing more NFL-wide stuff, and generally found it didn't get quite the same reception here as Pats-oriented articles. That's why we decided to go with the forum sidebar, rather than manually dropping in every article. But I was just coming to drop off that one, so glad you found it already.
Somehow I completely missed the forum sidebar. Good to know. Again, nice work on the article, Chuck.

Edit: and PS I love the sidebar, I can't stand it on the main board when every article that is written gets a new topic posted
 

soxhop411

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“@Eric_Edholm: I'm no kicking expert, but when Stephen Gostkowski follows through and keeps his head down, he usually makes it. Did there.”
 

IdiotKicker

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Let's keep in mind that at this point, Gostkowsk is 9-12 on FG and 19-21 on XP. The former is one make away from being league average for the last 5 years, and the latter is in line with league average on XP last year. This is what everyone else sees in the NFL. You aren't going to find a better replacement, and it's not like it's been a train wreck. We've really just been spoiled.
 

patinorange

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Let's keep in mind that at this point, Gostkowsk is 9-12 on FG and 19-21 on XP. The former is one make away from being league average for the last 5 years, and the latter is in line with league average on XP last year. This is what everyone else sees in the NFL. You aren't going to find a better replacement, and it's not like it's been a train wreck. We've really just been spoiled.
Is Bill willing to pay him the highest salary in the league for average performance? That will be the off season question.
 

IdiotKicker

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That would be a dumb question to ask given the small sample size and random fluctuations that every kickers goes through. Or do you think the Ravens should have cut Justin Tucker after last year?
 

Time to Mo Vaughn

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This is what everyone else sees in the NFL. You aren't going to find a better replacement, and it's not like it's been a train wreck. We've really just been spoiled.
That's not really the point of this thread though. If Brady were playing at just below league average, we'd still be in the right to wonder if he's injured or if he's on the back of his career. We shouldn't just accept it because that's what everyone else is used to.
 

IdiotKicker

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That's not really the point of this thread though. If Brady were playing at just below league average, we'd still be in the right to wonder if he's injured or if he's on the back of his career. We shouldn't just accept it because that's what everyone else is used to.
So what would you propose?

Like, the whole question of this thread is, "What's going wrong and should we do anything?" I told you what's wrong. There's also pretty clear evidence that even at his worst, Gostkowski is better than any alternative. If you have something else to add, then we can work there, but if it's just hand-wringing about how he's not as good as he used to be, then I'm not sure what the point is.
 

WayBackVazquez

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Let's keep in mind that at this point, Gostkowsk is 9-12 on FG and 19-21 on XP. The former is one make away from being league average for the last 5 years, and the latter is in line with league average on XP last year. This is what everyone else sees in the NFL.
No, it isn't. 19-21 would've been bottom five in the league last year, and is in the same range this year. It may be a smallish sample size, but if it's kept up, it's not acceptable.
 

IdiotKicker

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No, it isn't. 19-21 would've been bottom five in the league last year, and is in the same range this year. It may be a smallish sample size, but if it's kept up, it's not acceptable.
It actually would have been bottom 8 in the league and within less than 1% of 4 other kickers, including Adam Vinatieri and Steven Hauschka, and within one standard deviation of the league average, meaning there's no statistical difference. Is this really the hill we want to die on here?
 

WayBackVazquez

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It actually would have been bottom 8 in the league and within less than 1% of 4 other kickers, including Adam Vinatieri and Steven Hauschka, and within one standard deviation of the league average, meaning there's no statistical difference. Is this really the hill we want to die on here?
Sure, I'll die on it. It would have been bottom five among qualified kickers, and bottom six among all players according to ESPN stats.

I get that you're a kicker. Are you also a mathematician? It's a problem.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I have no idea what is going on with him. To my eyes, in addition to the misses, there's been several iffy makes as well which increases the concern level. But it is indeed ultimately a smallish sample size against a very, very strong track record. It is also true that at some point, you worry about going forward rather than hoping reversion to the mean will save you---there are, in fact, cliffs in performance too. Whether this is one, I do not know.

Fortunately, BB and the coaches know if there's anything physically or mentally going on and will make a decision based on that info.
 

Marciano490

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IK - I haven't read your article yet, so forgive me if I missed this, but in the modern era, what leads elite kickers to underperform and how quickly can a dropoff come? I can't imagine it's like RBs where they get old overnight. It's got to be injury or mental right or just SSS right?
 

IdiotKicker

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IK - I haven't read your article yet, so forgive me if I missed this, but in the modern era, what leads elite kickers to underperform and how quickly can a dropoff come? I can't imagine it's like RBs where they get old overnight. It's got to be injury or mental right or just SSS right?
Sometimes it's fluke stuff, sometimes it's slight variations in mechanics, sometimes it's a complete breakdown. Usually, it's fluke stuff like near-misses where most of the mechanics are clean but just slightly mistimed.

With Gostkowski, there are some bigger flaws there that are unusual. The turf stuff may be a real factor here, but Gostkowski looks out of whack with mechanics that are a little unusual for him, and it is something I'm concerned about. But there is also enough data there to show that even with the issues he's had, he's still better than any option on the free agent wire, and still has a strong enough track record for me to give him another 6-8 games to recover before saying this is who he is going forward.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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It's pretty dumb to suggest they should cut him and pick up a street FA.

It's also pretty dumb not to be concerned that it might coast us big time in the playoffs. It already did last year,

Concern is certainly warranted. But no, they're not going to find someone better right now.
 

Marciano490

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Sometimes it's fluke stuff, sometimes it's slight variations in mechanics, sometimes it's a complete breakdown. Usually, it's fluke stuff like near-misses where most of the mechanics are clean but just slightly mistimed.

With Gostkowski, there are some bigger flaws there that are unusual. The turf stuff may be a real factor here, but Gostkowski looks out of whack with mechanics that are a little unusual for him, and it is something I'm concerned about. But there is also enough data there to show that even with the issues he's had, he's still better than any option on the free agent wire, and still has a strong enough track record for me to give him another 6-8 games to recover before saying this is who he is going forward.
I assume he's had the same mechanics for at least a decade. With no injury, how hard would it be to get back in form?
 

IdiotKicker

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The concern for me is more about the mechanics abou
I assume he's had the same mechanics for at least a decade. With no injury, how hard would it be to get back in form?
Hard to say how long it could be until it clicks. It's like watching Big Papi going through a slump. Sometimes it takes a few months to get going and get back in rhythm, sometimes it takes a couple weeks. But this is a guy who has been 15-18 points per year above average over the last 3 years, so I'm going to give him a sizable amount of rope to figure out what's wrong. It's a lot like the Justin Tucker situation from last year, where he ended up with just above 82% accuracy, also slightly below-average for the year, then got the biggest guaranteed dollar contact for a specialist ever, and is now 18-for-18 on the year and also hasn't missed an extra point. This shit happens with kickers from time to time, even good ones.
 

Jettisoned

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Is it possible that the turf in Pittsburgh is just garbage? There were a bunch of plays that left huge divots. Maybe his plant foot slid a bit on the XP. The other kicker missed a couple too.
 

Stitch01

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Its historically a tough place to kick, but read the ITP article if you haven't done so yet. It presents a pretty clear picture of his mechanical issues.
 

lexrageorge

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Its historically a tough place to kick, but read the ITP article if you haven't done so yet. It presents a pretty clear picture of his mechanical issues.
I think there is still an open question as to whether yesterday's misses were due to the same mechanical issues, or whether they were due to field/stadium conditions in a place were kickers go to die, or a combination. And the winds can be pretty crazy in Buffalo, which means we probably will not have conclusive answers until after the bye week.

Ghost's performance is not ideal, but a replacement is unlikely to be better. So we'll need to deal with mortal Ghost and hope it doesn't cost them. Yeah, and last year's playoff game hurt, but there were plenty of other mistakes to go around during that game. It was a team loss all the way.