Bradley: Deal with It.

SpaceMan37 said:

There were other outfielders besides Ellsbury they could have signed for 2014. I argued at the time that they should have signed Chris Young or Rajai Davis.

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Right. That would have been another option. The team wasn't engaged in "punting" 2014. They just made horrible evaluations of the readiness of JBJ and X, and combined that with the horrible signing of AJ Pierzynski, compounded the problem by waiting way too long to resign Drew so that he ended up shoved into service after 5 AAA games, and as was par for the course during Ben's tenure, completely blew the bullpen and back of the rotation signings.

But, yup, thank God they wasted money on those guys instead of wasting money on Ellsbury, or extending Lester and Miller.

Ben was a genius. Obviously.

Plympton91 said:

Right. That would have been another option. The team wasn't engaged in "punting" 2014. They just made horrible evaluations of the readiness of JBJ and X, and combined that with the horrible signing of AJ Pierzynski, compounded the problem by waiting way too long to resign Drew so that he ended up shoved into service after 5 AAA games, and as was par for the course during Ben's tenure, completely blew the bullpen and back of the rotation signings.

But, yup, thank God they wasted money on those guys instead of wasting money on Ellsbury, or extending Lester and Miller.

Ben was a genius. Obviously.

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And here we see the species "false dichotomy" in its natural habitat, the message board post....

As much as I disagree with this side of the argument, why are we insistent on ripping open 2 year old wounds during a post season surge? What happened has happened and we can all wishcast for what would have happened if X or Y was different with as much relevance to reality as Jeter's gold gloves.

Taking the bigger view BC's moves from that time period show a mixture of great prospect identification and drafting/development interspersed with questionable signings and good old fashioned bad luck.

Take this shit to a Ben Cherington thread or a "We miss Dreamboat" but let's get back to JBJ and his emergence as what we all hoped Ells would bring if we resigned him (and what the Yankees thought they were getting) with the bat.

Back to Bradley.

JBJ's second-half, compared to his scorching hot first-half, has been decidedly pedestrian: a .783 OPS mostly fueled by a slugging percentage of .441. He's had trouble getting on base to the tune of a .323 OBP. Mostly this was fueled by a fucking atrocious August where he struck out 33% of the time and generated his weakest contact of any month.

September has been great, on the other hand. The K% has stabilized some and he's walking again. What's most remarkable to me is what a diversity of pitches hes shown the ability to drive. He took a fastball up and away from Gausman last night and hit it on a line for a homer. Reminded me of this one against Fulmer from back in August:

Fishy1 said:

Back to Bradley.

JBJ's second-half, compared to his scorching hot first-half, has been decidedly pedestrian: a .783 OPS mostly fueled by a slugging percentage of .441. He's had trouble getting on base to the tune of a .323 OBP. Mostly this was fueled by a fucking atrocious August where he struck out 33% of the time and generated his weakest contact of any month.

September has been great, on the other hand. The K% has stabilized some and he's walking again. What's most remarkable to me is what a diversity of pitches hes shown the ability to drive. He took a fastball up and away from Gausman last night and hit it on a line for a homer. Reminded me of this one against Fulmer from back in August:

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Was just coming to post something like this. He was absolutely scorching from the beginning of the year through his hit streak on May 26th posting a .350 average with a 1.032(!) ops. since then he's hit a pedestrian .242 but the good news is that the power is still there with 18 bombs and a ..441 slug., so when he's making contact he's doing damage. Throw in the Gold Glove D and he's a really pleasant surprise.

What's so surprising to me is that his bombs are just that - scorching line drives showing real power. The ball just flies off his bat when he connects.

Plympton91 said:

Right. That would have been another option. The team wasn't engaged in "punting" 2014. They just made horrible evaluations of the readiness of JBJ and X, and combined that with the horrible signing of AJ Pierzynski, compounded the problem by waiting way too long to resign Drew so that he ended up shoved into service after 5 AAA games, and as was par for the course during Ben's tenure, completely blew the bullpen and back of the rotation signings.

But, yup, thank God they wasted money on those guys instead of wasting money on Ellsbury, or extending Lester and Miller.

Ben was a genius. Obviously.

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The team was in the middle of the dreaded bridge years that they weren't allowed to discuss. They had to move on from the older players to form a new young core and that was always going to come with growing pains. Winning in 2013 was a bonus, but it didn't change that. That team needed to be mostly dismantled. They weren't going to get the same performances from a whole lot of those players from 2013 because of so many 90% outcomes. Doesn't really matter who the GM was, it was going to be painful at some point getting to where they are now. The alternative was doubling down on the 2011 method of getting older without any prospect depth, but they were pretty set on letting the prospects develop and that turned out to be the right move. They've spent money foolishly along the way, but it hasn't hindered them at all because of the young players at several positions carrying the team. But those young players had to play, not sit in the minors or on the bench waiting for Ellsbury or whoever else to be dumped for nothing. I doubt JBJ would be on the team if they signed Ellsbury.

JBJ is always going to have some swing-and-miss in his game, but he's keeping himself near league average (K% of 23, league average is 21), but his power and general improvement in command of the strike zone also means he walks more than league average (BB% = 10, league average is 8). I'm not sure how those numbers have changed since the end of his really hot start to the season, but keeping his three true outcomes near average, combined with his plus power, baserunning, and defense is an exceptionally good player. Both Fangraphs and B-ref have him near 5 WAR, with the difference between the two (about half a win) mostly coming down to the defensive metrics. I'd also say that JBJ is probably streakier than the average hitter, but that's probably not going to change his overall value in a notable way. Really, this is just about as good a season as anyone could expect from Bradley; the only thing that could be better is if he combined 2016 JBJ at the plate with some of his earlier really absurd numbers with the glove.

jateders said:

Was just coming to post something like this. He was absolutely scorching from the beginning of the year through his hit streak on May 26th posting a .350 average with a 1.032(!) ops. since then he's hit a pedestrian .242 but the good news is that the power is still there with 18 bombs and a ..441 slug., so when he's making contact he's doing damage. Throw in the Gold Glove D and he's a really pleasant surprise.

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Yeah, Bradley at .242 / 325 / 441 is still a cornerstone player due to defense, he's just a 7th place hitter instead of a 2-6 hitter, but we've got a lot of those.

Remember: the average line for the AL as a whole is .258/.321/.424. If his "down" half is better than that, and he can play a top shelf CF, he's a very good player.

Koufax said:

What's so surprising to me is that his bombs are just that - scorching line drives showing real power. The ball just flies off his bat when he connects.

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Looking at that .gif, it looks like his swing is pretty long, which would make sense as to why he can hit it far, but also fall into deep ruts.

It would be interesting to see how his swing looks now vs. early this swing, when his post-toe-tap-mechanics were still fresh.

There's a piece in the NYT on the development of fielding metrics (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/02/magazine/can-new-technology-bring-baseballs-data-revolution-to-fielding.html?&moduleDetail=section-news-1&action=click&contentCollection=Technology&region=Footer&module=MoreInSection&version=WhatsNext&contentID=WhatsNext&pgtype=article) that has a whole lot of stuff about JBJ:

Bradley hit well during his college and minor-league careers, but he struggled in Boston. He hit .189 in 37 games in 2013, and .198 the following season. In 2014, Bradley was the starting center fielder. “But he was at .180, .190,” Farrell says. “And that was subjectively outweighing the defense. I didn’t have the ability to say, ‘What is he saving us defensively?’ ” Farrell adds: “I remember thinking that if he hit .240, he’s an everyday player. But I knew it was arbitrary. We just didn’t know.”

Bradley may be the ideal Statcast outfielder. Unlike Kiermaier, he’s rarely the fastest player on the field. You seldom see him on SportsCenter making spectacular catches. But he frequently seems to be in just the right place to get balls that look like certain hits when they leave the bat. “His instincts are ridiculous,” Scott says. “It’s as if he immediately knows where the landing spot of the ball will be, and he puts his head down and runs there. You don’t see many guys do that.”

At one game in Fenway Park in June, I saw Bradley play against the White Sox. In the second inning, Tim Anderson, the shortstop for the White Sox, hit a long fly headed over Bradley’s head. Bradley turned and raced toward the wall without bothering to track the ball. He arrived at the spot with enough time to stop, turn back toward the plate and make the catch while almost standing still. To anyone buying a hot dog and glancing up at the last moment, it would have seemed a routine play. But the Statcast radar and cameras, I knew, had captured it as it unfolded. If I’d been able to access the information, it could have told me what made the play special — or whether it was special at all.

For the rest of the game, I watched Bradley on every pitch. Occasionally he began moving even before the batter made contact. His sense of where the ball would go seemed uncanny. When I asked Willman about this, he looked up the data on all the balls hit in Bradley’s direction this season. Then he compared them with all the balls hit to every other center fielder.

Bradley proved to be far from the fastest runner, and while his teammates claim that he usually takes the shortest routes to get to where fly balls will land, it turns out that his are far from the most efficient. In several directions, including heading straight back to get a ball, he ranked below the league average in that regard. But the quickness of Bradley’s first step on all batted balls was near the top among outfielders; on balls that resulted in outs, he was the best in baseball. On some plays, Statcast showed that Bradley was moving before the ball was even hit — exactly what I thought I was seeing in Fenway.

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nvalvo said:

Remember: the average line for the AL as a whole is .258/.321/.424. If his "down" half is better than that, and he can play a top shelf CF, he's a very good player.

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According to espn's MLB stats page, when you split out CFs, here's the average team's CF slash line:

AL: .261/.325/.407/.732, with 86 r, 16 hr, 67 rbi, and 245 total bases
NL: .264/.333/.425/.758, with 90 r, 20 hr, 68 rbi, and 267 total bases
TOT: .263/.329/.416/.745, with 88 r, 18 hr, 67 rbi, and 256 total bases

With two games to go, Jackie Bradley Jr's season line:

.270/.352/.492/.844, with 94 r, 26 hr, 87 rbi, and 271 total bases

Bradley is, offensively, much better than an average major league CF. Much better. Add to that his sterling defense at a premier position, and laser, rocket arm, and what you have here is an absolute, bona-fide major league stud.

Did you add up two averages for the triple slash and then just divide them by two? That's not how averages work. Not that I disagree with your overall point.

mt8thsw9th said:

Did you add up two averages for the triple slash and then just divide them by two? That's not how averages work. Not that I disagree with your overall point.

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He didn't. Those are the averages.

I think what he means is that the ABs aren't equal.

mt8thsw9th said:

Did you add up two averages for the triple slash and then just divide them by two? That's not how averages work. Not that I disagree with your overall point.

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No, I just gave you the actual numbers posted on the ESPN stat page.

bosox79 said:

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/84

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Thanks for the link. The only reason I asked is because I've seen people do that quite a lot.

O Captain! My Captain! said:

JBJ is always going to have some swing-and-miss in his game, but he's keeping himself near league average (K% of 23, league average is 21), but his power and general improvement in command of the strike zone also means he walks more than league average (BB% = 10, league average is 8). I'm not sure how those numbers have changed since the end of his really hot start to the season, but keeping his three true outcomes near average, combined with his plus power, baserunning, and defense is an exceptionally good player. Both Fangraphs and B-ref have him near 5 WAR, with the difference between the two (about half a win) mostly coming down to the defensive metrics. I'd also say that JBJ is probably streakier than the average hitter, but that's probably not going to change his overall value in a notable way. Really, this is just about as good a season as anyone could expect from Bradley; the only thing that could be better is if he combined 2016 JBJ at the plate with some of his earlier really absurd numbers with the glove.

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26 yrs old, it's fair to say he's in his peak right now, correct? Putting up seasons something like this until he's 30? If so, what is that kind of player worth on the open market....something akin to 80% of the Ellsbury contract?

Just saw he's a Boras- crap.

PTC said:

Just saw he's a Boras- crap.

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I wouldn't worry about that. There's a conventional wisdom that Boras guys never sign extensions, but many actually have. Strasburg, Weaver, and Carlos Gonzalez are a few off the top of my head, with Gonzalez signing precisely the kind of security-for-two-FA-years type deal we'd hope Bradley would accept.

InsideTheParker said:

There's a piece in the NYT on the development of fielding metrics (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/02/magazine/can-new-technology-bring-baseballs-data-revolution-to-fielding.html?&moduleDetail=section-news-1&action=click&contentCollection=Technology&region=Footer&module=MoreInSection&version=WhatsNext&contentID=WhatsNext&pgtype=article) that has a whole lot of stuff about JBJ:

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ITP, good find. I really like that a guy actually goes out to ballparks and watches a player to try to find out why he excels, instead of just grinding through stats with a computer (not that there isn't a large place for the latter also). I've often noted that JBJ looks much faster getting his job done in the field than on the bases. It's probably due to the jumps, or first steps and even directional anticipation he uses, as the author says. He also seems to flap his arms too far out to the side running the bases. All around an excellent player, JBJ.

In several threads, here on SoSH and elsewhere, there's a lot discussion of JBJ being the centerpiece of a trade for a starting pitcher. Leaving aside the question of whether another "ace" is even an off-season need, I don't understand the lack of JBJ love and the desire to get rid of a cost-controlled guy (arb year in '17) who, according to Fangraphs, was the third best CFer after Trout ($16 million) and Eaton ($2.7 million). Makes absolutely no sense to me.

I am a big JBJ fan but would have to consider trading him for an 'Ace'. Just depends on the ace and what else is included.

dhappy42 said:

In several threads, here on SoSH and elsewhere, there's a lot discussion of JBJ being the centerpiece of a trade for a starting pitcher. Leaving aside the question of whether another "ace" is even an off-season need, I don't understand the lack of JBJ love and the desire to get rid of a cost-controlled guy (arb year in '17) who, according to Fangraphs, was the third best CFer after Trout ($16 million) and Eaton ($2.7 million). Makes absolutely no sense to me.

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I don't think it's a lack of love or desire to "get rid" of him. It's more about people wanting another big time starter, which is probably going to take either JBJ, Benintendi, or Moncada as the centerpiece. I'm not even including Betts or Bogaerts, because there is no way either of them is getting traded. Of those three, many would choose JBJ, as Moncada has crazy upside, and Benintendi can slide in to CF and provide more offense(with good, but not as good defense). I don't think it's really anything more than that.

dhappy42 said:

In several threads, here on SoSH and elsewhere, there's a lot discussion of JBJ being the centerpiece of a trade for a starting pitcher. Leaving aside the question of whether another "ace" is even an off-season need, I don't understand the lack of JBJ love and the desire to get rid of a cost-controlled guy (arb year in '17) who, according to Fangraphs, was the third best CFer after Trout ($16 million) and Eaton ($2.7 million). Makes absolutely no sense to me.

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Well it's not tough to understand. The Sox have another guy that can play CF - not as well defensively, but likely better offensively - so they'd be dealing from strength. JBJ is cost controlled but he's also heading into arbitration and the oldest of the kids and seemingly the lowest ceiling. There's also the added factor that his age brings in that he will reach FA at a time and age when he will be looking to get his one big deal, while the other kids are young enough that they would likely be more willing (theoretically) to take a medium size deal now to buy out some FA years because they will still have time to cash in again after that.

I see your point, he's a good young player. He's cheap for now. It appears his hitting will be good enough to make him pretty valuable, given his glove. But if you acknowledge another SP is needed - which it probably is and the FA market sucks - then you have to move someone. So you can deal JBJ or one of the prospects. Personally I'd rather move AB to CF and sign a platoon mate for Young in LF, than trade anymore of the prospects that it would require, as they have much higher ceilings and offer more expected value.

It's fair to disagree with the mindset but I'm not sure how it makes no sense to someone.

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:

I don't think it's a lack of love or desire to "get rid" of him. It's more about people wanting another big time starter, which is probably going to take either JBJ, Benintendi, or Moncada as the centerpiece. I'm not even including Betts or Bogaerts, because there is no way either of them is getting traded. Of those three, many would choose JBJ, as Moncada has crazy upside, and Benintendi can slide in to CF and provide more offense(with good, but not as good defense). I don't think it's really anything more than that.

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I feel similarly.

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:

I don't think it's a lack of love or desire to "get rid" of him. It's more about people wanting another big time starter, which is probably going to take either JBJ, Benintendi, or Moncada as the centerpiece. I'm not even including Betts or Bogaerts, because there is no way either of them is getting traded. Of those three, many would choose JBJ, as Moncada has crazy upside, and Benintendi can slide in to CF and provide more offense(with good, but not as good defense). I don't think it's really anything more than that.

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OK, what you're saying is that of the three, JBJ is the most expendable. But what available "ace" provides more value than JBJ? I know position player and pitcher WAR aren't quite the same thing, but I wouldn't trade JBJ (4.8) straight up for Sale (5.2) or Quintana (4.8).

dhappy42 said:

OK, what you're saying is that of the three, JBJ is the most expendable. But what available "ace" provides more value than JBJ? I know position player and pitcher WAR aren't quite the same thing, but I wouldn't trade JBJ (4.8) straight up for Sale (5.2) or Quintana (4.8).

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If you wouldn't trade him for either of those guys straight up than you're either putting way too much into a stat that isn't that accurate or you're just being a homer. Either would and should cost much more because they are far more valuable players and they're locked up to insanely reasonable contracts for a longer term.

dhappy42 said:

OK, what you're saying is that of the three, JBJ is the most expendable. But what available "ace" provides more value than JBJ? I know player and pitcher WAR aren't quite the same thing, but I wouldn't trade JBJ (4.8) straight up for Sale (5.2) or Quintana (4.8).

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I think most people would happily trade him straight up for Sale or Quintana.
I also think the real comparison isn't head to head value, but the value of who they're replacing or would replace them. If you're replacing Buchholz or Wright in the rotation with Sale, that improvement is significantly greater than replacing JBJ with AB.

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:

I think most people would happily trade him straight up for Sale or Quintana.
I also think the real comparison isn't head to head value, but the value of who they're replacing or would replace them. If you're replacing Buchholz or Wright in the rotation with Sale, that improvement is significantly greater than replacing JBJ with AB.

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While I am with you on this, I think the replacement in the OF you need to look at also needs to factor in Young/Platoon LHH be AB. I think overall AB over JBJ would be an upgrade in CF. reasonable minds can differ on that but yes, adding a Sale or Quintana goes a long long way to balancing the ledger. Quite frankly I don't think there's a guy on the roster that CHW would accept straight up for Sale. Quintana they probably would for Betts or X.

Papelbon's Poutine said:

While I am with you on this, I think the replacement in the OF you need to look at also needs to factor in Young/Platoon LHH be AB. I think overall AB over JBJ would be an upgrade in CF. reasonable minds can differ on that but yes, adding a Sale or Quintana goes a long long way to balancing the ledger. Quite frankly I don't think there's a guy on the roster that CHW would accept straight up for Sale. Quintana they probably would for Betts or X.

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Yeah, I agree about adding the LF factor to the equation, but I was just keeping it simple.
I think Kenny Williams himself would drive Sale to the airport for Mookie straight up, but who the hell really knows. Not us.

Papelbon's Poutine said:

While I am with you on this, I think the replacement in the OF you need to look at also needs to factor in Young/Platoon LHH be AB. I think overall AB over JBJ would be an upgrade in CF. reasonable minds can differ on that but yes, adding a Sale or Quintana goes a long long way to balancing the ledger. Quite frankly I don't think there's a guy on the roster that CHW would accept straight up for Sale. Quintana they probably would for Betts or X.

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Yes, you can't count AB as an upgrade over JBJ if he's already in the lineup. If AB moves to CF, someone has to play LF. Can Young/platoon partner combine for 4-5 WAR?

dhappy42 said:

Yes, you can't count AB as an upgrade over JBJ if he's already in the lineup. If AB moves to CF, someone has to play LF. Can Young/platoon partner combine for 4-5 WAR?

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If you want to reduce it to simply adding up WAR - which isn't a good idea - then you have to factor into the equation what Sale or whomever provides over the pitcher he's replacing as well as factoring in who they get to play LF and or platoon with Young. If they traded JBJ for Sale and signed Reddick or Joey Bats or someone else to play LF it absolutely would be an overall upgrade if you got to drop Clay from the rotation or didn't have to deal with the Wright enigma.

Papelbon's Poutine said:

If you want to reduce it to simply adding up WAR - which isn't a good idea - then you have to factor into the equation what Sale or whomever provides over the pitcher he's replacing as well as factoring in who they get to play LF and or platoon with Young. If they traded JBJ for Sale and signed Reddick or Joey Bats or someone else to play LF it absolutely would be an overall upgrade if you got to drop Clay from the rotation or didn't have to deal with the Wright enigma.

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I agree WAR isn't the best weight in this case (but what's better?) And yes, you'd have to include the added value of Sale (or Quintana) over Wright (or Buchholz.)

Is CY/LHH + AB + Sale greater than AB+JBJ+SW (or Clay)?

Obviously depends on who the LHH is and what you expect from Wright and Clay.

There's money involved in the equation too. What's JBJ's salary likely to be next year?

If JBJ is traded, who would people replace him with, short term and long term? And how much overall value is Benintendi really losing playing LF instead of CF? How much better would he have to be as a LF to make up the positional change? Does he have more value being a +2-3 win LF or an average CF?

Our best OF prospect has < 25 at bats in A+ ball. I guess in a pinch you could use Moncada in the OF or try Dubon out there if he takes another step forward. Of course if he does, you'd be losing value by playing him in the OF so you'd be left with the same problem as before.

bosox79 said:

If JBJ is traded, who would people replace him with, short term and long term? And how much overall value is Benintendi really losing playing LF instead of CF? How much better would he have to be as a LF to make up the positional change? Does he have more value being a +2-3 win LF or an average CF?

Our best OF prospect has < 25 at bats in A+ ball.

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I know the general consensus on this board hates the idea, but I wonder if the Sox brass would have plans to revisit the "Swihart to LF" scenario. It is tough to gauge because of how messed up his development plan has been.

timlinin8th said:

I know the general consensus on this board hates the idea, but I wonder if the Sox brass would have plans to revisit the "Swihart to LF" scenario. It is tough to gauge because of how messed up his development plan has been.

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I need to remember Swihart exists. I would think that's more of a possibility than this board would like to believe. I also believe his bat will play there, I guess it depends how the team feels about his receiving skills.

It wasn't too long ago that people here and elsewhere were praying that he might hit enough to claim Gary Pettis as a comp. It seems that he has actually settled into a realm very akin to Mike Cameron: GG Defense, 250/350/450 range, 25 HRs, 15-20 SBs.

That seems like a guy you want to keep.

I believe the entire "trading JBJ" concept starts out with the idea of giving something worthwhile to get something worthwhile. It's the opposite of the type of ideas we've seen floated already where you dump a bunch of junk together and get back a prize.

If the Red Sox do intend a significant upgrade in the rotation, or a starting position such as 3B (or catcher, for that matter), they'll need to put something useful into the package beyond just prospects. Add to that, there was plenty of smoke out there about Chicago seeking JBJ for Sale or Quintana, and that's where this conversation stems from.

Now, what piece might that be ... if not JBJ? When looking at the future outlay for Betts, Bogaerts and Bradley, which makes the most sense to move ... IF they decide to move one? The MVP candidate? The shortstop? Or the premium defensive centerfielder with streaky power?

E5 Yaz said:

I believe the entire "trading JBJ" concept starts out with the idea of giving something worthwhile to get something worthwhile. It's the opposite of the type of ideas we've seen floated already where you dump a bunch of junk together and get back a prize.

If the Red Sox do intend a significant upgrade in the rotation, or a starting position such as 3B (or catcher, for that matter), they'll need to put something useful into the package beyond just prospects. Add to that, there was plenty of smoke out there about Chicago seeking JBJ for Sale or Quintana, and that's where this conversation stems from.

Now, what piece might that be ... if not JBJ? When looking at the future outlay for Betts, Bogaerts and Bradley, which makes the most sense to move ... IF they decide to move one? The MVP candidate? The shortstop? Or the premium defensive centerfielder with streaky power?

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JBJ wasn't even that streaky. He really only had 1 bad month. His 2nd worst month he had an OPS of .780.

But why not Xander? He'd be a bit harder to replace since Ben10 and Betts allows you to sign any OF and stick them in LF. However, he'd also get you a better pitcher than JBJ would and you'd be able to make up some of the production lost by having a better defensive SS. How's Dubon's glove? I wouldn't be eager to trade Xander or JBJ, but if the right pitcher came back... Betts is off the table regardless and is in an entirely different category than JBJ or Xander. I'd guess they'd get 90 cents to the dollar trading JBJ and $1.10 with Xander.

bosox79 said:

JBJ wasn't even that streaky. He really only had 1 bad month. His 2nd worst month he had an OPS of .780.

But why not Xander? He'd be a bit harder to replace since Ben10 and Betts allows you to sign any OF and stick them in LF. However, he'd also get you a better pitcher than JBJ would and you'd be able to make up some of the production lost by having a better defensive SS. How's Dubon's glove? I wouldn't be eager to trade Xander or JBJ, but if the right pitcher came back... Betts is off the table regardless and is in an entirely different category than JBJ or Xander. I'd guess they'd get 90 cents to the dollar trading JBJ and $1.10 with Xander.

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Bogaerts is at worst, an average defender. So a significant improvement with the glove is not going to be terribly easy to find... at least not one that is coupled with a bat that doesn't make the drop of a significant negative overall. He had an .802 OPS with at 113 wRC+ this year. That's the 6th best shortstop bat in the majors and 3rd best in the AL. And he still has plenty of room to grow.

Now let's look at their options for replacing him:

Internally:

MLB Experience: Brock Holt, Deven Marrero, maybe Michael Martinez or Marco Hernandez?

None of those are serious options. Let's move on.

On the farm: Mauricio Dubon, CJ Chatham?

Dubon may have just had a breakout season with half of it spent in AA hitting to the tune of a 151 wRC+. Even still, soxprospects has him at 10 on their top prospects list, behind Marco Hernandez. That's probably because his defense doesn't profile as any better than Xander's while having a bat with a much lower ceiling, even if he has a chance to be a solid hitter. He's not an awful option, but he wouldn't be ready until late 2017 or early 2018 so they'd still need to pick up a replacement externally.

Chatham could develop into a long term replacement, but having just been drafted, he's at least a full season away from any kind of serious consideration and could easily flame out. He had a nice debut, though.

Externally:

Free Agent Market: Erick Aybar, Alcides Escobar, Alexei Ramirez, Eric Sogard.

That's the entire free agent class. Again, let's move on.

Trade market: Eduardo Nunez, Zack Cosart, maybe Marcus Semien or Danny Espinoza? Elvis Andrus or Jose Igelsias as a long shot?

Nunez wouldn't be an awful option, but would probably be a much better investment as a utility bench player. Cosart plays excellent defense but that bat is probably never going to come around. The A's have little reason to deal Semien. Same with the Nats and Espinoza, but Turner's emergence might make him attainable. And maybe you get lucky and the Rangers want to go all in on Profar and would dump some salary in Andrus, who is solidly average still. Or the Tigers are willing to punt and will package Iglesias back to the Sox? None of those names are star players, nor do they have the ceiling to hope for that, though. And any of these guys will require moving more prospect capital to bring back.

So even if we concede that Bogaerts is going to be worth more to Chicago (or whomever) in a trade, replacing Bogaerts right now would not be easy and would likely be costly, minimizing the impact of whatever trade he's involved in in the first place. Trading Bradley doesn't require a lot of movement to fill the gap he leaves behind. With Betts, Benintendi, Young, Swihart and Holt in house, and Desmond, Bautista, Reddick and maybe Cespedes on the free agent market, they are almost assuredly capable of finding a replacement without further thinning the farm.

TLDR: JBJ is FAR easier to replace at this moment and thus the far more attractive piece to include in a deal for a front line starter.

That said, I'd rather they didn't trade for another front of the rotation type guy and kept the current outfield in tact. Of course, I don't buy into the idea that Price won't ever be able to pitch in the post season, which helps me to be comfortable with that.

Where are you getting that Doubon profiles as only an average shortstop? Two years ago the organization gave him a defensive player of the year award

This team was a couple of well placed runs from making ta series of it and were considered the AL favorites by most. I just don't think a vast improvement is needed anywhere by moving JBJ in any deal unless management really feels as though they are selling high. That is possible, but if he is viewed as an average bat with elite defense instead of a great bat, great D, I don't think he gets you Quintana anyhow and you may as well keep him. Other teams saw his struggles at the end of the season and may not want to risk giving up a huge asset in exchange. There's not much of a net improvement without aiming for ace territory.

If Benintendi is who we thought he was and Moncada really is suited best for LF with Sandoval being useful, or if even Devers makes it up some time in 2018, then something would have to give. There will be a logjam at some point which could force something. Until then, nothing is broken that can't be filled in free agency.

grimshaw said:

This team was a couple of well placed runs from making ta series of it and were considered the AL favorites by most. I just don't think a vast improvement is needed anywhere by moving JBJ in any deal unless management really feels as though they are selling high. That is possible, but if he is viewed as an average bat with elite defense instead of a great bat, great D, I don't think he gets you Quintana anyhow and you may as well keep him. Other teams saw his struggles at the end of the season and may not want to risk giving up a huge asset in exchange. There's not much of a net improvement without aiming for ace territory.

If Benintendi is who we thought he was and Moncada really is suited best for LF with Sandoval being useful, or if even Devers makes it up some time in 2018, then something would have to give. There will be a logjam at some point which could force something. Until then, nothing is broken that can't be filled in free agency.

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We're dealing JBJ to make room for Fats Sandoval? Christ. You mention Devers which, I think most fans would be much happier carving a place for in a post-JBJ world. But, if a post-JBJ world includes Sandoval.....no thanks.

Odds that Fats is going to IMPROVE as our teams' young players peak? 500:1? 1000:1? A billion?

PTC said:

We're dealing JBJ to make room for Fats Sandoval? Christ. You mention Devers which, I think most fans would be much happier carving a place for in a post-JBJ world. But, if a post-JBJ world includes Sandoval.....no thanks.

Odds that Fats is going to IMPROVE as our teams' young players peak? 500:1? 1000:1? A billion?

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Probably like 1:1. It's hard to get worse than 2015.

bosox79 said:

Probably like 1:1. It's hard to get worse than 2015.

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He's a pro athlete. Doing the improbable is what he lives for. I'm sure he looks at his 2015 stat line and says to himself, "I can suck so much more than that."

I don't see how the Sox can avoid giving Pablo a shot at a job next spring, but they'd better have a plan B so robust that it amounts to a plan A. They certainly should not make any deals that are predicated even to the smallest degree on the assumption that he is ever going to be a good baseball player again.

bosox79 said:

Probably like 1:1. It's hard to get worse than 2015.

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Truth.

2016 was an improvement on 2015. At that rate of improvement he will be a 6 WAR player by 2019.

Lowrielicious said:

Truth.

2016 was an improvement on 2015. At that rate of improvement he will be a 6 WAR player by 2019.

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Finally, someone who knows how to get the most out of WAR.

Savin Hillbilly said:

He's a pro athlete. Doing the improbable is what he lives for. I'm sure he looks at his 2015 stat line and says to himself, "I can suck so much more than that."

I don't see how the Sox can avoid giving Pablo a shot at a job next spring, but they'd better have a plan B so robust that it amounts to a plan A. They certainly should not make any deals that are predicated even to the smallest degree on the assumption that he is ever going to be a good baseball player again.

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Isn't that Moncada? Worst case you are stuck with Shaw or Holt at 3b.