The Bullpen Thread
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By pulling his hand down sharply as the ball is rolling off his fingers, rather than letting his hand be carried inertly forward and down by his arm.
You can do this yourself with a ping-pong or tennis ball. Throw the ball forward in a normal motion; there will be a small amount of backspin. Then pretend that your hand is the net of a lacrosse stick, or jai alai stick, and try to put as much backspin as you can on the ball as you throw it forward. There's a trade-off between maximum spin and maximum forward speed, of course, but if one practices hard, one can increase the spin rate at a given forward speed.
That's not what I said. We're talking about the most fundamental principle in statistical inference - the variance (distribution) of a sample statistic. Perhaps we need a pinned thread on this as it comes up repeatedly.
Re:Kelly, it will be interesting to see how Farrell uses him in the postseason now. I think he makes the roster but I think Farrell will work hard (again) to avoid putting him on the mound with runners on. The guy needs a cushion to be able to walk a few batters.
I think this is it. I think we'll see quicker hooks for the starters because I dont think Farrell likes too many of his relievers with guys on base. At least not more than one guy anyway. Maybe Ziegler to get a DP, or maybe the LOOGY.
Kimbrel had his 3rd straight shaky outing in 4 days tonight.
There's an argument to be made that making Koji the closer again is the right move statistically. But I don't see Farrell being the type of manager to "uproot the conventional bullpen structure" or whatever you want to call it at this point in the year.
There's an argument to be made that making Koji the closer again is the right move statistically. But I don't see Farrell being the type of manager to "uproot the conventional bullpen structure" or whatever you want to call it at this point in the year.
I am starting to focus my anger on the president of baseball operations. His two big trades were giving major assets to a corrupt Padres gm. And the return? A closer who is having a meltdown and can't throw strikes. And Pomeranz, who couldn't beat out Clay B (seemingly) for a playoff rotation spot.
It is hard to feel good about things right now. Between Farrell and KImbrel we seemed destined for a Grady Little moment.
It is hard to feel good about things right now. Between Farrell and KImbrel we seemed destined for a Grady Little moment.
“@brianmacp: To Carl Willis, the trouble for Craig Kimbrel is posture-related, getting too rotational, missing too often to his glove side.”
“@JMastrodonato: Kimbrel says it’s a minor adjustment he’s made plenty of times this year. Not concerned. Willis: ”it’s an adjustment he can make quickly“”
This is good news honestly. I'd rather it be mechanical than injury.
“@JMastrodonato: Kimbrel says it’s a minor adjustment he’s made plenty of times this year. Not concerned. Willis: ”it’s an adjustment he can make quickly“”
This is good news honestly. I'd rather it be mechanical than injury.
If it really is hard to feel good about things right now, then you don't deserve this team.
If he's made the adjustment plenty of times this year, and he can make it quickly, why has he had 3 off games in a row? I'll believe it when I see it. I was a CK defender until tonight.
I f*cking hate Kimbrel so much that I turn the game off whenever he comes in and just check in on the score on the Xfinity sports app, because I can't watch him and his douchey "Big Game James" knockoff delivery. And in non-save situations, he is particularly execrable. He's like a grocery clerk who whenever he's asked by his manager to clean the bathrooms does a shitty job so that he'll never be handed the assignment again.
He is not a shutdown closer, and not worth what we surrendered for him. Next time he bends over to get into his wind up he should try pulling his head out of his ass before delivering the pitch.
He is not a shutdown closer, and not worth what we surrendered for him. Next time he bends over to get into his wind up he should try pulling his head out of his ass before delivering the pitch.
Kelly since returning to the club in September:
11 g, 14.0 ip, 9 h, 1 r, 1 er, 3 bb, 20 k, 0.64 era, 0.79 whip, 12.9 k/9, .180/.226/.240/.466
It's very hard to imagine keeping him off the playoff roster. Many people here wanted him removed from the rotation, believing he could be a big-time bullpen arm, and, well, that's exactly what he's been. Not many of those have been super high leverage situations, but still, except for one pitch to the corpse of Mark Teixeira, he's been everything you'd want in a relief pitcher.
11 g, 14.0 ip, 9 h, 1 r, 1 er, 3 bb, 20 k, 0.64 era, 0.79 whip, 12.9 k/9, .180/.226/.240/.466
It's very hard to imagine keeping him off the playoff roster. Many people here wanted him removed from the rotation, believing he could be a big-time bullpen arm, and, well, that's exactly what he's been. Not many of those have been super high leverage situations, but still, except for one pitch to the corpse of Mark Teixeira, he's been everything you'd want in a relief pitcher.
Kelly still looks real lucky to me. The numbers are definitely great and closer-worthy... and it's hard to argue, but they're almost impossible to believe when I watch him pitch. He seems to give up hard hard hard contact and get lucky too often for me to feel confident with him.
It's a Kelly-Barnes battle for the last bullpen spot and both have similar makeups. Barnes has been with the club all season so I think it'll come down to a reliability issue for Farrell.
It's a Kelly-Barnes battle for the last bullpen spot and both have similar makeups. Barnes has been with the club all season so I think it'll come down to a reliability issue for Farrell.
If it's a choice between Barnes and Kelly I prefer Kelly. I actually like him as a closer.
That's one possibility, but it's definitely not a given. There are very plausible scenarios in which both make the postseason roster. The two variables seem to be (1) 7- or 8-man pen? and (2) Is Pomeranz healthy enough to make the cut?
The people who seem like locks are:
Kimbrel
Uehara
Ross
Ziegler
Scott or Abad (but not both)
The people fighting for jobs are:
Barnes
Kelly
Hembree
Tazawa
If it's a 7-man pen and Pomeranz is in, then those four are fighting for one job. But I doubt this will happen because I think including Pomeranz either forces the eight-man bullpen (if his role is emergency long man) or pushes Scott/Abad off (if his role is situational lefty).
If it's a 7-man pen and Pomeranz is out, or an 8-man pen and Pomeranz is in, then the four righties are fighting for two jobs. If it's an 8-man pen and Pomeranz is out, then only one of the four righties has to draw the short straw.
Based on recent work (or lack thereof), I'd handicap them Kelly/Barnes/Hembree/Tazawa, but Junichi's long track record could work in his favor. It'll be interesting to see if he works today after his successful test drive Thursday night.
For those of us hippies who have more experience tossing a frisbee than pitching a baseball, there's an analogy there too. You get high spin (and therefore extended air time) with your wrist snap--and this is not directly correlated to the velocity the frisbee leaves your hand with, which is a product of your entire throwing motion (trunk + shoulder + arm). You can toss the disc very softly with a ferocious amount of spin, or very hard with relatively little.
This makes sense, SM. Savin's analogy with a frisbee does too. One more thing came to mind about Koji, if he is pulling his hand down more sharply than most, I would think that might interfere with his control some. But, his control is not an issue. So, Koji, however you do it, thank you (arigatōgozaimashita). As
for the headcase, Craig Kimbrel, he better get his act together or these will be the most uneasy Red Sox playoffs in memory.
I am surprised to see Tazawa listed as on the bubble. I think Farrell sees him as the primary 7th-inning guy unless strings of LHBs or RHBs are due up.
I think that's the role he started the season in. But given his second-half struggles and the fact that he has only pitched once in the past two weeks and has just 5 innings in September, his status seems pretty uncertain at this point.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that neither Scott nor Abad make it. Kelly has earned a spot with his numbers the last month, and Barnes has been Farrell's workhorse all year. Those two, plus Pomeranz/Ross as lefties and Kimbrel/Uehara/Ziegler as 8th-9th inning guy, shape up to be a very good bullpen.
Pomeranz obviously has pitched well as a reliever over the course of his career:
As Starter: 4.07 era, 1.33 whip, 8.6 k/9, .239/.319/.391/.710
As Reliever: 2.14 era, 1.02 whip, 9.4 k/9, .194/.266/.288/.554
And he may have opened some eyes with how he did today. I think he makes the postseason roster. Abad has no shot. Scott's position probably yields to Pomeranz.
I think the Sox have some nice power arms to use:
Pomeranz was hitting 95 today.
Kimbrel throws 96-99.
Kelly can hit 99 or 100.
Barnes can hit 98.
Tazawa can be 94-95.
Ross throws 95.
Obviously Koji and Ziegler don't throw hard, but otherwise, that's a lot of hard throwing relievers.
As Starter: 4.07 era, 1.33 whip, 8.6 k/9, .239/.319/.391/.710
As Reliever: 2.14 era, 1.02 whip, 9.4 k/9, .194/.266/.288/.554
And he may have opened some eyes with how he did today. I think he makes the postseason roster. Abad has no shot. Scott's position probably yields to Pomeranz.
I think the Sox have some nice power arms to use:
Pomeranz was hitting 95 today.
Kimbrel throws 96-99.
Kelly can hit 99 or 100.
Barnes can hit 98.
Tazawa can be 94-95.
Ross throws 95.
Obviously Koji and Ziegler don't throw hard, but otherwise, that's a lot of hard throwing relievers.
A lot of spin with a baseball has to do with the fingers. Whipping the ball off your fingers is what gives it spin.
I found one link talking about Koji's "long, strong fingers" but it's not 100% on point:
But here is an article talking about how scouts look for pitchers with large hands and long fingers:
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/9319990/draft-eligible-players-how-scouts-percieve-their-shortcomings
And here's a quote on Pedro from the Globe:
"[Pedro] Martinez was gifted with a strong right arm and unusually long fingers that allowed him to manipulate a baseball in ways other pitchers could only imagine."
People continue rallying for a September callup to replace a reliever who has been part of our pen the entire year with the caviat that he can only work in specific situations. This is specifically why Kelly shouldn't be a part of the pen over Barnes. You need options out of the pen that you are confident can adjust to the game situation......not an option who you need to the game situation to be ideal for his usage. That isn't how bullpens function especially in October.
Kelly's success this September has been primarily in low leverage mop-up roles and we saw him get an opportunity the other night to remind us why he can't be counted on. He was pitching that 9th inning to make a statement for his inclusion onto the roster.......instead he gave up a 430 foot walk-off homer. Send him to Ft. Myers with Owens and Marrero to start these playoffs that's the group of AAAA players he belongs with right now if the decision is between him and Barnes it isn't really close imo. If you keep Kelly over Abad/Scott it wouldn't be horrible although they have a specific role whereas Kelly I still don't know how he'd be useful over our other options.
I agree with this. I dont see any way Barnes is getting kicked aside. I dont think Farrell trusts Abad. I think Scott's general lack of MLB experience, combined with last couple of appearances, combined with how Pomeranz looked in relief, weren't enough to move him past Pomeranz as the other lefty, assuming Pomeranz doesn't wake up with a sore arm today. (and Pomeranz could still be a long guy if necessary if a starter shits the bed before the 5th.).
I like having Pomeranz and Ross as the LHRs. Neither has to absolutely be pulled against RHBs.
I agree with this as well. I think Barnes is a lock, Farrell has trusted him in an array of situations all year. Kelly has been used in a number of scenarios also, and has been effective except for the walk-off. He was brought into a horrendous jam in that game though and did almost escape it. Pomeranz gives Farrell a lot of versatility and he was an NL All-Star. His curve ball has been referenced as one of the best in baseball from the left side. I don't see how they take Scott (a Sept. call-up with 6 innings of MLB experience) over Pomeranz. That leaves this set-up which others have alluded to:
1. Kimbrel
2. Koji
3. Ziegler
4. Ross
5. Barnes
6. Kelly
7. Pomeranz
If they go with an 8-man pen the 8th slot pecking order is likely this depending if they want a 3rd lefty:
- Scott
- Hembree
- Tazawa
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For the Never Kimbrel crowd, his OPS against this season, including all the meltdowns and walks, was .539. Sure, it'd be nice if he was Mariano, but realistically he actually *is* the guy the Sox paid for.
Can you provide an objective reason to prefer Barnes to Kelly? You've repeated the anecdotal and emotional reasons several time now.
Does Barnes have a better fastball, or better located fastball, via pitchFX metrics?
Des Barnes have significantly higher leverage index and better performance in high leverage situations (you can actually look that up, you know?)
Does pitchFX tell us that Barnes has superior quality or command of his secondary pitches (relatedly, does Barnes even have secondary pitches?).
I mean, you're an astute guy. I don't see how anyone looks at Kelly's stuff and command, then looks at Barnes' stuff and command, and concludes that they want Barnes. We must've been watching different games for the past year.
Remember, Kelly was a bad starting pitcher earlier in the year, but Barnes was such a bad staring pitcher that he wasn't even considered for a spot in the rotation.
Can anyone link me to a site where I could look up Joe Kelly's swinging miss % in September? Also his pitch selection breakdown as a MR, and his batted ball profile as a MR or since September? The big complaint with Kelly is despite his stuff, he never struck out guys. Many wondered if he would translate into the bullpen because of that, but he's striking out guys, and a lot of them. 30.4% of them, to be precise. And only walking 7% of them. Striking more guys out, giving up free less passes. He's used his change up a lot less this year in favor of the slider, but that's yearly totals so I dunno.
Edit: He's also used his 4 seamer a lot more, his 2 seamer a lot less.
Edit: He's also used his 4 seamer a lot more, his 2 seamer a lot less.
That works. If it's accurate his four seamer usage in September was 68.9%, he ditched the 2 seamer/sinker altogether, his slider percentage was 10.4% and his CB 20.3%. And if you look at his career trend, he's been transitioning to the 4 seamer since 2014, with his usage of the pitch at 12.4%, 31.4% and 43.4% this year. He's also completely dropped the change up. He's a completely different pitcher.
As a starter earlier this year, his 4S usage was 44.8%, Sinker 19.4%, CU 8.3%, Slider 16.9%, CB 10.6%. That's pretty drastic.
Robby Scott was sent to Florida along with Marerro, Noe Ramirez and Henry Owens.
http://m.redsox.mlb.com/news/article/204939158/red-sox-sticking-with-craig-kimbrel-as-closer/
http://m.redsox.mlb.com/news/article/204939158/red-sox-sticking-with-craig-kimbrel-as-closer/
There isn't anything emotional about Farrell's usage of Barnes over Kelly all season including the latter being sent to the minors not once but twice while Barnes was still one of his middle inning anchors. I'm not referring to stuff, command, or any metric other than Farrell choosing Barnes over Kelly for virtually an entire season including the final month.
This is surprising to me. Scott looked good, or at least good enough to be a LOOGY, but Farrell must have thought that his success was due to unfamilarity or something.
This is being discussed in other threads, but more likely due to Pomeranz solidifying his spot in the bullpen, and the makeup of the Indians lineup.
That is just patently false.
Farrell chose Kelly to be in the starting rotation when he was healthy in the first half of the season. Barnes began as a mop up guy out of the bullpen. Generally, you pick the guy who you think is the better pitcher to be the starter. And the worse guy to be the multi inning middle reliever.
The only time Barnes and Kelly were in competition for a bullpen slot was in August, when they inexplicably also had other inferior pitchers on the mound all month too. Suggests they had other considerations for that decision than immediate competence.
Finally, you're right that Barnes reached a very high leverage role in John Farrell's bullpen. He then promptly pissed all over himself in those chances and lost the job.
Barnes can't carry Kelly's jock right now. I'm pretty sure Farrell will reach the same conclusion.
Correct, in the early season.....and he was sent to the minors after failing miserably then sent down a second time as Barnes was one of our most reliable middle relievers. Kelly was given a shot to start and failed.....at no time was he EVER Farrell's preference out of the bullpen over Barnes. Over the last month Barnes was the one up to protects leads while Kelly was the one getting the mop-up innings. Kelly was given one shot and gave up a 430-foot walk-off to end a game.
This isn't accurate. Kelly was called up in mid-season and had 3 bullpen opportunities where he had more command issues in his final game prior to being sent back to AAA. The final straw was against the Angels when he fell behind again prior to grooving a straight fastball down the middle before being pulled.
I don't know where this is coming from. Barnes was still receiving high leverage middle innings to protect leads all throughout September while giving up a grand total of ONE earned run in his final 12 appearances of the season.
And in the end, Kelly pitched (GREAT) in all three games while Barnes was used only as a long reliever in a game that was never in doubt. QED
I hoped they would give Kelly an extended look in Sept. to see if he could be a shut down set-up guy. I thought his upside was much higher than Barnes. Farrell referenced a lights out slider Kelly has developed. He also threw a nasty change last night. Barnes just doesn't have this kind of secondary arsenal. I'm impressed with the way JF rode Kelly and he looks like a potential weapon heading into next season.
I want Chapman more than anyone else this off season. As far as I can tell, Papelbon's contract (5 years/$61) was the highest ever for a reliever and it's safe to assume that Chapman exceeds that. Does he get something like 6/$90?
He'll get whatever the Yankees are willing to pay him, because that's his most likely landing spot. No way the Red Sox get into a bidding war over him based on the expected contract alone, let alone the off-the-field concerns.
I would think that the Cubs will aggressively pursue him as well. The price will be insane and the Sox won't go anywhere near it.
It would be just like the Yankees to pay twice as much as Andrew Miller would have cost to replace Andrew Miller, wouldn't it?
People who are pining for Chapman need to include in their calculus that spousal abuse has a very high recidivism rate, even among those who are trying to get treatment. The next time Chapman decides to pop off some rounds in his garage, he may not hit only bricks and windows and his girlfriends brother may not be around to break up the fight. In that case you're looking at a much more serious suspension and a toxic contract that you only get to void if he goes to jail or gets a lifetime ban.
Further, you don't get to choose when he loses his temper. The Reds to some extent got lucky that his previous assault happened in the offseason. If he blows up on August 2nd your entire season plan for your bullpen goes up in his smoke.
Even before you bring in an "Ick" factor based on past aggression, Assuming that Chapman's problem with women was a one off--when we know police were called to his house on multiple occasions--would be incredibly foolish unless you're getting a huge discount relative to talent level.
I am sure they would be happy to write off that extra cost against the future prospects of the 4 guys they got back for Miller. "Only" money to replenish their farm system, especially at the top end like Frazier is smart and very un-Yankee like unfortunately.
I don't think the price will be the issue with Chapman since it's only money and is basically the only FA need they have. Look what they gave up before taking on Kimbrel's close to market value contract.
Cherington would have probably passed on the money, but DD loves his flamethrowers. I don't want him and think they'll pass based on the character.
Cherington would have probably passed on the money, but DD loves his flamethrowers. I don't want him and think they'll pass based on the character.
I agree with all of this. Chapman is something of a loose cannon and I don't know if he can be trusted not to have another incident after getting a huge-money long-term deal. If he were to sign a 1 year deal I'd be fine with it, but anything longer than that would make me get all gunchy about it. Dude's nuts.